The Competent Investor

Tom Bodrovics
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The Competent Investor brings you deep-dive conversations with the world's top investors, economists, and market strategists. Every episode unpacks the macro forces shaping markets, reveals actionable insights, and delivers conversations that compound your understanding of where capital is flowing.

  1. 13 HR AGO

    Doomberg: The Late Stages of U.S. Supremacy

    Doomberg analyzes the accelerating convergence of global crises, framing the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East as battles within a broader World War III that began in 2014. He argues these conflicts are catalysts revealing the fragility of a late-stage US dollar-centric financial system, where Western sovereign debts have reached mathematically unsustainable levels. The recent strategic pact between Russia and China to advance a multi-polar framework is seen as a historic step toward de-dollarization, punishing the US for abusing its financial chokehold. Doomberg notes that paradoxically, heavily sanctioned nations like Iran and Russia have built resiliency that will serve them well when the current system collapses, as major Western currencies and bonds are all correlated proxies destined to fail together.Regarding the energy shock from the Strait of Hormuz closure, Doomberg admits his earlier prediction of $150 oil was wrong, attributing the muted price response to a massive inventory overhang and deceptive market practices in 2025 that are now being burned off at higher prices. The near-term threat remains a full-blown regional war that could cause an uninsulated global depression, though the long-run outlook for commodity prices is lower due to supply responses. The current ceasefire is viewed as a necessity for the US and Israel, given missile shortages and Iran's credible ability to devastate Gulf energy infrastructure that remains defenseless.Shifting to Canada, Doomberg expresses optimism that political roadblocks to energy exports are clearing, predicting Mark Carney will succeed in building a pipeline to unlock Alberta's vast resources, analogous to Nixon going to China. He dismisses Canadian insolvency fears given its immense per-capita resource base. Finally, he underscores his analytical method of deliberately seeking and grading a wide spectrum of global propaganda to construct a more predictive, holistic view of world events.Timestamps:00:00:00 - Introduction00:00:52 - Sovereign Debt Crisis Catalyst00:04:53 - Global Yields and Japan00:07:30 - Sanctioned Countries Resiliency00:08:57 - Energy Shock Impacts00:10:30 - Medium-Term Optimism Outlook00:16:44 - Religious War Undertones00:19:20 - Congressional War Constraints00:21:33 - Oil Price Predictions Reviewed00:26:11 - Canada Energy & Resources00:34:45 - News Flow & Information00:40:32 - China & Trump's Claims00:49:52 - Foreign Policy Whiplash00:53:17 - Energy & Datacenters00:57:19 - Wrap Up Guest:Doomberg — Head Writer For The Doomberg Team and Creator of the Doomberg SubstackDoomberg is the anonymous publishing arm of a bespoke consulting firm providing advisory services to family offices and c-suite executives. Its principals apply their decades of experience across heavy industry, private equity, and finance to deliver innovative thinking and clarity to complex problems.Substack X Website 📈 The Competent InvestorMarkets, macro, and the minds that move money.Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles.RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app.Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter.X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary.YouTube — Full video episodes.

    59 min

  2. 1 DAY AGO

    Tony Greer: Buying Opportunity | Gold & Gold Miners Are Dirt Cheap

    Tony Greer, trader, editor of 'The Morning Navigator', and co-founder of 'The Macrodirt Podcast', joined Tom Bodrovics to share a trader’s perspective on navigating today’s chaotic markets. Greer emphasized a core philosophy: “Don’t worry about being right, worry about getting it right,” prioritizing P&L over ego and reacting flexibly to new information. He views the brewing energy crisis from the Strait of Hormuz closure as a significant, underappreciated risk, markets may only wake up when tangible shortages hit personal convenience, not through forward-looking pricing. While oil charts remain constructive and he expects high prices for longer, political distractions and Trump’s headlines create confusion, though many are noise to be canceled.Greer sees a potential replay of 2022 with headline inflation is re-emerging, as seen in recent CPI and PPI prints, which could pressure tech and growth stocks while benefiting hard assets and value. He is positioned long energy, oil services, gold, and miners, noting that gold miners’ sell-off defies their record margins and cheap valuations, making them compelling buys even if they shake out weak hands first. Technology’s AI bubble appears extended, and while he’d short a parabolic blow-off top, he remains nimble, as illustrated by his prepared exit from homebuilders when rates rose. The dollar and yields serve as guides, not trades unto themselves.Beyond markets, Greer reflected on his inaugural TG Macro conference, finding the deep human need for personal connection its greatest lesson. The event’s sentiment marker—broad consensus to own gold and miners—later proved a contrarian signal, a reminder of crowd psychology. He plans a second conference in Nashville for February 18–19, 2027, with a rotating mix of speakers. Greer stressed the restorative power of analog activities—cooking, guitar, family—and urged listeners to unplug, shake hands, and foster real connection, a balance essential in the digital age.Timestamps:00:00:00 - Introduction00:01:12 - Trading Mindset and Flexibility00:03:28 - Global Energy Crisis Concerns00:06:40 - Trump Policies and Markets00:10:10 - Oil Charts and Planning00:14:20 - Gold Miners Outlook00:18:24 - Energy Sector Positioning00:27:30 - Trading & Positioning Shorts00:30:15 - CPI, Fed, Dollar and Rates00:35:00 - Morning Market Analysis Routine00:38:20 - Conference Reflections00:42:30 - AI & Wrap Up Guest:Tony Greer — Trader, Editor of 'The Morning Navigator', and Co-Founder of 'The Macrodirt Podcast'After graduating from Cornell University in 1990 Tony followed in his father’s footsteps to a Wall Street trading operation. He quickly learned his career path would be vastly different. He says, "I would not be sitting in the same seat on the same trading desk managing the same risk for the same firm for over 30 years."We have clearly entered a new era in financial markets.He began in the treasury department of Sumitomo Bank on the 107th floor of the World Trade Center downtown Manhattan. Tony was an FX trading assistant while the Quantum Fund was breaking the Bank of England in 1992.In 1993 he joined Union Bank of Switzerland as an FX and commodities trader, spending half a year as a Vice President in their Zurich treasury department. Then returned to New York City early in 1995 to join J. Aron & Company, the privately held commodity trading arm of Goldman Sachs.He managed risk for the Goldman Sachs Commodities Index, in precious and base metals trading, and futures and options trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.He started his first venture in 2000 – Machine Trading which happened right before the tech bubble burst. That decision was his first excruciating life lesson in market timing. It turned out to be an extremely valuable learning experience.He believes there is a massive opportunity with both the unprecedented situation in global markets and in the way financial news is consumed. In 2016, he started TG Macro, LLC.Conference Website X Substack YouTube 📈 The Competent InvestorMarkets, macro, and the minds that move money.Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles.RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app.Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter.X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary.YouTube — Full video episodes.

    46 min

  3. 14 MAY

    Chris MacIntosh: The Age of Consequences | Why No One Has Incentives to Stop This War

    In this episode, Tom Bodrovics speaks with the always forthright hedge fund manager Chris MacIntosh about the current state of markets and society, which MacIntosh characterizes as a historic “blow-off top” encompassing both financial excess and social absurdity. He argues that the system is breaking down due to unsustainable debt and geopolitical conflict that no major power has an incentive to end. MacIntosh frames the current situation as an “age of consequences” resulting from years of underinvestment in critical resources, particularly energy. He highlights a severe and complacent energy market, with over 12 million barrels per day offline due to conflict and supply chain disruption, far exceeding past crises. This reality is inflationary and contradicts deflationary predictions. MacIntosh stresses that energy is the feedstock for nearly everything, from plastics to fertilizer, and shortages will have profound second-order effects. From an investment perspective, he advocates rotating away from speculative, overvalued assets like AI hype stocks and toward tangible, essential commodities that satisfy Maslow’s hierarchy of needs: energy, precious metals, and agriculture. He notes gold is already in a bull market against most other assets. MacIntosh also emphasizes the importance of jurisdictional risk, pointing to Latin America, particularly Argentina, as a region with uncontested energy resources. He contrasts the “parasitic” Western economic system with a more prepared and productive Chinese system, which has strategically stockpiled resources. Ultimately, MacIntosh advises listeners to take personal agency, structure assets to be out of reach of governments, and develop productive skills rather than relying on politicians or passive consumption. The core message is to acknowledge the systemic risks, prepare for a world where net worth may be calculated in kilojoules rather than dollars, and take action to create solutions rather than bemoaning the state of affairs. Timestamps00:00:00 – Introduction00:00:14 – Rising Global Absurdity00:04:32 – Asset Protection Strategies00:06:02 – Incentives to Prolong Conflict00:10:26 – Energy Supply Shortages00:14:45 – Oil Market Realities00:19:44 – Geographic Investment Risks00:24:34 – China’s Strategic Preparations00:26:25 – Clash of Economic Systems00:33:29 – Debt Market Collapse Risks00:38:21 – Capital Controls Emerging00:48:52 – Age of Consequences00:53:38 – Exiting Financial Casino01:04:24 – Concluding Thoughts Guest:Chris MacIntosh — Hedge Fund Manager and Founder of Capitalist ExploitsRaised in Southern Africa, Chris Macintosh has since lived and invested from sevent different countries. After a career at top-tier investment banks such as JP Morgan, Lehman, Robert Flemmings and Invesco, Chris became tired of corporate life, and has since built and sold multiple million dollar companies, overseen $35 million into venture capital, all the while investing full time, and managing his own and private client wealth.X Website 📈 The Competent InvestorMarkets, macro, and the minds that move money.Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles.RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app.Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter.X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary.YouTube — Full video episodes.

    1hr 8min

  4. 13 MAY

    Chris Vermeulen: The Hidden Signals That Could Predict the Next Market Crash

    In this episode of The Competent Investor, Chris Vermeulen, founder of The Technical Traders, discusses the current market environment with your host Tom. Vermeulen observes that the market is exhibiting signs of a potential blow-off top, driven by FOMO and a strong risk-on sentiment. Investors are piling into technology, AI, small caps, and speculative stocks, while defensive sectors like utilities and dividend-paying stocks lag. He emphasizes that extreme bullish sentiment is a contrarian indicator, warning that when the herd is all moving in one direction, it may signal a crowded trade. However, he cautions that this does not mean the market cannot go higher; bubbles can persist. Watch this video on YouTube Vermeulen explains his approach to market analysis, which integrates price, time, and sentiment. He uses money flow indicators to determine when to be long or short, rather than relying on news or geopolitical events. He recounts how many subscribers missed a recent rally due to fears over the Iran war, highlighting the importance of following a disciplined strategy and not cherry-picking trades based on emotion. Regarding precious metals, Vermeulen notes that silver has shown a strong breakout, but gold has not confirmed the move. He advises waiting for gold to signal a clear uptrend before committing to the sector. He also discusses the dollar’s indecision and its correlation with metals and equities. Vermeulen recommends that investors manage risk by raising cash and not adding to positions after a strong rally. For younger investors, he stresses the importance of accumulating assets like real estate, equities, and whole life insurance to build long-term wealth. He concludes that while the equity trend remains up, caution is warranted, and money may rotate into precious metals if the stock market stalls. Timestamps: 00:00:00 – Introduction 00:00:14 – Market Euphoria and FOMO 00:01:54 – Sentiment as Caution Signal 00:04:04 – Potential Market Extension 00:06:44 – Inner Market Analysis 00:09:41 – Geopolitical Trading Lessons 00:15:02 – Signals for Trend Reversal 00:18:50 – Debt and Financial Reset 00:21:00 – Precious Metals & Charts 00:32:00 – Market Direction Overview 00:36:47 – Oil & Copper Charts 00:41:40 – Risk Management Strategies 00:47:00 – Concluding Thoughts Guest:Chris Vermeulen — Founder & Chief Investment Officer, The Technical TradersChris Vermeulen is the Founder & Chief Investment Officer of The Technical Traders and the visionary mind behind Asset Revesting. In his book Asset Revesting – How to Exclusively Hold Assets Rising in Value, Profit During Bear Markets, and Continue Building Wealth in Retirement, he lays out this investment framework.Chris launched his financial career at 16, parlaying his knack for trading and risk management into funding his final year of college, where he earned a business diploma in operations management. By his twenties, he had achieved financial independence as a full-time entrepreneur and trader. After a setback—blowing up a trading account—Chris dedicated himself to treating trading as a business, completing the Trading Strategy Mastery and Trading Is Your Business courses.A technical analysis expert, he devises systematic methods to spot market opportunities and control portfolio risk, rejecting traditional buy-and-hold approaches that cling to depreciating assets. His efficient asset allocation models balance short- and long-term strategies to minimize drawdowns and consistently outperform benchmarks. Those seeking reliable capital preservation and growth turn to his proven techniques.Website X 📈 The Competent InvestorMarkets, macro, and the minds that move money.Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles.RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app.Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter.X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary.YouTube — Full video episodes.

    49 min

  5. 7 MAY

    Danielle DiMartino Booth: Warsh’s Fed Takeover | A Quiet Coup Brewing?

    Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist for Quill Intelligence LLC, for a discussion on the economic landscape and the Federal Reserve’s role. DiMartino Booth highlights the complexities surrounding Jerome Powell’s potential departure from the Fed, noting that while Powell has faced criminal charges, he is likely to stay to protect his integrity and prevent a Trump-appointed successor. She draws a historical parallel to Mariner Eccles’ tenure, suggesting that Powell’s presence ensures a separation between the Treasury and the Fed’s monetary policy. Watch this video on YouTube The conversation also touches on the Fed’s communication strategies and the potential for a liquidity crisis, with DiMartino Booth advising incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to prepare for such an event. Danielle emphasizes that the U.S. is already in a recession, evidenced by job losses and GDP revisions. She points out the impact of rising oil prices and the potential for a prolonged recession, noting that the oil shock could exacerbate existing economic issues. Danielle also explores the implications of high levels of household debt and the potential for a debt jubilee or other unconventional economic measures. Timestamps: 00:00:00 – Introduction 00:00:40 – Powell’s Reasons to Stay 00:02:51 – Eccles Historical Precedent 00:04:08 – Fed Re-engineering Ideas 00:06:13 – Internal Fed Dissent 00:08:17 – Advice for Kevin Warsh 00:09:35 – Liquidity Crisis Strategies 00:11:33 – Real Estate Credit Woes 00:14:33 – Recession Thresholds? 00:17:13 – Job Losses Analysis 00:19:26 – Credit Market Warnings 00:21:19 – Midterm Election Risks 00:23:08 – Policy Tools Discussion 00:25:12 – AI-Proofing Career Advice 00:26:49 – Monitoring MOVE Index 00:27:48 – Concluding Thoughts Guest:Danielle DiMartino Booth — CEO & Chief Strategist for QI ResearchDanielle DiMartino Booth is CEO and Chief Strategist for Quill Intelligence LLC, a research and analytics firm.DiMartino Booth set out to launch a Research Revolution, redefining how market intelligence is conceived and delivered, with the goal of not only guiding portfolio managers but promoting financial literacy. To build QI, she brought together a core team of investing veterans in analyzing the trends and providing critical analysis of what drives the markets.Since its inception, commentary and data from DiMartino Booth's The Daily Feather have appeared in other financial sources such as Bloomberg, CNBC, Fox Business, Institutional Investor, Yahoo Finance, The Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch, Seeking Alpha, TD Ameritrade, TheStreet.com, and more.A global thought leader on monetary policy, economics, and finance, DiMartino Booth founded Quill Intelligence in 2018. She is the author of FED UP: An Insider's Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a full-time columnist for Bloomberg View, a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets.Before Quill, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, serving as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis until his retirement in 2015. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy.DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette, where she worked in the fixed income, public equity, and private equity markets. DiMartino Booth earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio. She holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University.X Substack Website YouTube 📈 The Competent InvestorMarkets, macro, and the minds that move money.Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles.RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app.Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter.X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary.YouTube — Full video episodes.

    30 min

  6. 6 MAY

    Josh Young: $200 Oil | Latest Iran Peace Deal Won’t Stop It

    Tom welcomes Josh Young, CIO of Bison Interests, to discuss the potential for a prolonged and sticky energy shock stemming from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the Iranian conflict. He emphasizes the profound uncertainty surrounding the conflict’s duration, noting that neither military participants nor analysts can predict its timeline, which explains recent oil price volatility. Young challenges the prevailing view that global oil inventories of roughly 8.4 billion barrels are insufficient, arguing that the system can absorb a much larger drawdown—potentially another billion barrels or more—before facing severe physical shortages. He warns that as inventories deplete, the relationship between supply and price becomes nonlinear, with prices potentially accelerating from $125 to $200 or $250 per barrel if the strait remains closed for several more months. Watch this video on YouTube Young also addresses the resilience of energy infrastructure, observing that refineries and export facilities often return to operation faster than expected due to spare equipment and skilled labor, though LNG facilities face unique supply chain constraints. He notes that general equity markets have largely ignored the crisis, partly because energy stocks represent only about 4% of the S&P 500, but also due to institutional underallocation and a persistent belief that oil is a declining industry. This creates a favorable environment for energy investors, as companies buy back stock at discounts and pay high dividends. Finally, Young highlights the risk of AI-generated misinformation, particularly in financial markets, and stresses the growing value of original, critical analysis over algorithmically produced content. He concludes that while high oil prices could devastate emerging economies, the current moderate prices suggest significant upside potential remains. Timestamps: 00:00:00 – Introduction 00:00:26 – Strait of Hormuz Closure 00:01:53 – Market Ignoring Conflict 00:03:43 – Oil Inventory Drawdown 00:07:33 – Non-Linear Price Dynamics 00:17:13 – Recent Infrastructure Attacks 00:20:21 – Global Energy ‘Explosions’ 00:23:33 – Infrastructure Resilience Analysis 00:26:24 – LNG Crude Recovery Differences 00:29:19 – Fuel Shortages Impacts 00:39:25 – UAE Leaving OPEC 00:44:34 – Equity Markets Response 00:50:29 – Gold Leading Oil & Fiat 01:00:00 – AI Info Feedback Loop 01:09:06 – Concluding Thoughts Guest:Josh Young — Chief Investment Officer & Founder, Bison InterestsJoshua Young has been professionally investing in publicly traded oil and gas securities for nearly two decades, achieving benchmark outperformance as Bison’s CIO. Josh possesses a deep understanding of the E&P business model and operating environment, with notable experience as Chairman of Canadian E&P company RMP Energy (rebranded as Ironbridge Resources). Under Josh’s leadership, the company achieved a successful turnaround, outperforming peers and ultimately being acquired at a 78% premium. Josh is the author of numerous articles on oil & gas investments and is a frequent guest speaker at various energy industry conferences. Prior to Bison, Josh began his career as a management consultant for Fortune 500 companies and private equity firms. He later worked as an investment analyst for a private equity fund and served as an energy investment analyst at a multi-billion-dollar single-family office, which was nominated as Institutional Investor’s Single Family Office of the Year in 2008. Josh holds a B.S. in Economics with honors from the University of Chicago.Substack X Website 📈 The Competent InvestorMarkets, macro, and the minds that move money.Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles.RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app.Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter.X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary.YouTube — Full video episodes.

    1hr 10min

  7. 30 APR

    Willem Middelkoop: Escape the Crash – Ride the Gold Supercycle

    Willem Middelkoop, author of “The Big Reset” and founder of the Commodity Discovery Fund, discusses the geopolitical and economic impacts of recent conflicts, particularly the war in Ukraine and tensions around Iran. He argues that the U.S. has lost significant geopolitical influence, while China has gained, and the Strait of Hormuz’s closure has put pressure on oil prices. Middelkoop predicts that oil prices could reach $150 per barrel to achieve real demand destruction, leading to a worldwide recession. Watch this video on YouTube He also warns of a potential sovereign debt crisis, citing Jamie Dimon’s concerns about a severe downturn in credit markets. Middelkoop highlights the shifting dynamics in the mining industry, with governments now recognizing the importance of critical metals. He expects a multi-decade bull market in commodities due to shortages, currency debasement, and geopolitical tensions. Despite recent sell-offs, he sees gold and silver as safe havens and expects higher prices, especially as central banks continue to buy gold. He also discusses the potential for a silver short squeeze and the impact of higher energy prices on mining margins. The conversation touches on the broader implications for the global economy, including the potential for a new international monetary architecture and the role of gold. Middelkoop emphasizes the importance of diversification and risk management, noting that his fund has adopted a more defensive stance with a large cash position. He also discusses the potential for nuclear and renewable energy sources to gain prominence due to the current energy crisis. Timestamps: 00:00:00 – Introduction 00:00:28 – Peace Scenario in Conflicts 00:02:58 – Oil Prices and Supply 00:06:38 – Sovereign Debt Crisis 00:09:16 – Market Correction Risks 00:11:14 – Dirty Industry & Recognition 00:12:45 – Commodity Bull Market Outlook 00:15:38 – Gold Sell-Off Explanation 00:18:27 – Gold’s Monetary Reset Role 00:21:37 – Declining Mine Production Trends 00:23:47 – Silver Price Surge Potential 00:28:56 – Nuclear Energy Acceleration 00:30:47 – Commodity Diversification Strategies 00:42:40 – Importance of Research 00:44:55 – Concluding Thoughts Guest:Willem Middelkoop — Author and Founder of the Commodity Discovery FundWillem Middelkoop is the founder of the Commodity Discovery Fund and also an author. He became a well-known personality through his work as a stock market commentator for the Dutch business television channel RTLZ.Middelkoop predicted the credit crisis's onset in his book "Als de dollar valt" (If the dollar falls) in 2007. Subsequent publications were "De permanente oliecrisis" (The permanent oil crisis) – 2008, "Overleef de kredietcrisis" (Surviving the credit crisis) – 2009, "Goud en het geheim van geld" (Gold and the secret of money) – 2012, and The Big Reset - 2013. In total, he sold more than 100,000 copies of his books.The Commodity Discovery Fund was established in the summer of 2008. It started with three million euros and 22 participants. By the end of 2023, it had grown to about 2,000 participants and €104 million in assets under management.Commodity Discover Fund X Willem Middelkoop 📈 The Competent InvestorMarkets, macro, and the minds that move money.Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles.RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app.Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter.X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary.YouTube — Full video episodes.

    47 min

  8. 29 APR

    Martin Armstrong: How Debt Crisis Could Spark Further Global Chaos

    Martin Armstrong, CEO & Chairman of Armstrong Economics, shares his insights on global politics, economic strategies, and the current geopolitical landscape with host Tom Bodrovics. Armstrong, with 50 years of experience, critiques the lack of long-term strategic thinking in governments, citing examples such as the Iran and Ukraine conflicts. He argues that leaders often prioritize short-term gains, like winning the next election, over addressing critical issues like national debt and defense spending. Watch this video on YouTube Armstrong also discusses the impact of the national debt, highlighting that interest expenditures are now exceeding military expenditures, a situation he finds alarming yet predictable. Armstrong delves into the complexities of the Middle East, particularly the Iranian conflict, and the strategic blunders made by various administrations. He criticizes the lack of foresight in military interventions, using the Iraq War as an example, and warns about the potential for a sovereign debt crisis in the Middle East, which could have far-reaching economic consequences. He also discusses the interconnectedness of global economies and the potential for a liquidity crisis caused by the Iranian war, affecting not just oil but also critical resources like fertilizer and copper. The conversation also touches on the political landscape in the United States and Europe, with Armstrong expressing concern about the infiltration of government by individuals with personal vendettas, leading to endless wars and political instability. He criticizes the lack of strategic thinking in current leadership, using examples like the Biden administration and the influence of figures like Netanyahu and Zelensky. Armstrong predicts a steep recession in the United States and a depression in Europe by 2028, driven by economic policies and geopolitical tensions. Armstrong’s pessimistic outlook extends to the future of global politics, suggesting that the current system is broken and in need of a major overhaul. He proposes a direct democracy as a potential solution, where citizens vote on critical issues like war, rather than leaving decisions to a small group of unelected officials. Timestamps: 00:00:00 – Introduction 00:04:35 – Leaders’ Strategic Shortcomings 00:05:27 – Incentivizing Better Politicians 00:09:18 – Washington Lacks Intelligence 00:12:30 – Upcoming Conflict Escalation 00:16:07 – EU Election Rigging 00:19:45 – US Dollar Reserve Strength 00:25:22 – Sovereign Debt Crisis 00:29:45 – Strait Hormuz Ramifications 00:33:20 – Iran’s Educated Society 00:35:22 – Energy Crisis Comparison 00:42:35 – Fertilizer & Cost Push Inflation 00:50:53 – Neocon Influence on Trump 01:00:09 – Government Infiltration 01:07:38 – Concluding Thoughts Guest:Martin Armstrong — CEO & Chairman of Armstrong Economics Ltd.Martin Armstrong is the Owner and Researcher for the website Armstrong Economics. He is the former chairman of Princeton Economics International Ltd. He is best known for his economic predictions based on the Economic Confidence Model, which he developed.At age 13, Armstrong began working at a coin and stamp dealership in Pennsauken, New Jersey. After buying a bag of rare Canadian pennies, he became a millionaire in 1965 at the age of 15. He continued to work on weekends through high school, finding the real-world exciting, for this was the beginning of the collapse of the gold standard. Martin became captivated by this shocking revelation that there were not just booms and busts, but also peaks and valleys that would last centuries.Armstrong progressed from gold coin investments to following commodity prices for precious metals. In 1973, he began publishing commodity market predictions as a hobby, and in 1983 Armstrong began accepting paid subscriptions for a forecast newsletter."In Armstrong's view of the world where boom-bust cycles occur like clockwork every 8.6 years, what matters is his record as a forecaster. He called Russia's financial collapse in 1998, using a model that also pointed to a peak just before the Japanese stock market crashed in 1989. These days, as the European sovereign-debt crisis roils markets worldwide, he reminds readers of his October 1997 prediction that the creation of the euro "will merely transform currency speculation into bond speculation," leading to the system's eventual collapse."His Website Armstrong Economics offers a unique perspective intended to educate the public and organizations on the global economic and political environment's underlying trends. Their mission is to research historical cyclical trends.Website X Facebook Amazon Book 📈 The Competent InvestorMarkets, macro, and the minds that move money.Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles.RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app.Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter.X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary.YouTube — Full video episodes.

    1hr 9min
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About

The Competent Investor brings you deep-dive conversations with the world's top investors, economists, and market strategists. Every episode unpacks the macro forces shaping markets, reveals actionable insights, and delivers conversations that compound your understanding of where capital is flowing.

Information

  • Creator
    Tom Bodrovics
  • Years Active
    2025 - 2026
  • Episodes
    88
  • Rating
    Explicit
  • Copyright
    © All content is owned and copyright by Tom Bodrovics, All Rights Reserved.
  • Show Website
    The Competent Investor

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