Eventual

Eventual
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Prediction Markets. Decoded.

  1. 3 days ago

    US Open, Todd Blanche, & Trump’s Legal Woes | Ankush Khardori

    Trump’s revenge tour, pardon markets, political arrest markets, Todd Blanche’s future at the Justice Department, and new legal trouble for prediction markets after a major Ninth Circuit fight involving Kalshi. Alex Keeney breaks down a short but packed episode covering the U.S. Open, Fed rate markets, Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech, Congress returning to Washington, and the court decision that could shape the future of sports and political event contracts. First: Fed rates. Markets now show rising odds of a rate hike this year, with September in focus after Kevin Warsh’s speech flipped expectations. Alex looks at the September Fed decision market, dumb money on both sides of the trade, and why traders are split heading into the Sept. 15 meeting. Then: legal problems for prediction markets. Mick Bransfield’s reporting at Eventual explains why traders have been watching the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals for clues about Kalshi, Nevada, sports trading, and the future of event contracts. Are we still in the golden age of prediction market trading, or is the legal environment starting to tighten? The main segment features Ankush Khardori, author of Open File, former federal prosecutor, legal analyst, and New York Times opinion contributor. Ankush joins Alex and Pratik Chougule to discuss Todd Blanche, Trump’s Justice Department, the New York bar market, and whether Blanche could ever face suspension or disbarment. The conversation then turns to Trump’s political enemies and “revenge tour” markets: John Brennan, Anthony Fauci, James Comey, Adam Schiff, James Clapper, Letitia James, Loretta Lynch, Susan Rice, and others. Ankush explains how venue, grand juries, DOJ incentives, timing, and presidential pressure all matter when thinking about whether political investigations could turn into actual arrests or indictments. Finally, the show looks at Trump’s pardon pen. Trump has already shown a willingness to use pardons aggressively, but can traders forecast them? Ankush discusses the informal pardon economy, political connections, white-collar crime, January 6 pardons, Derek Chauvin, Maduro, and why Trump’s pardon process may be unusually ad hoc. Topics include: Trump revenge tour markets Who will be arrested before 2027? Trump pardon markets Todd Blanche attorney general Todd Blanche disbarment market New York bar discipline Justice Department independence Trump and the DOJ Political prosecutions and legal norms John Brennan market Anthony Fauci market James Comey market Adam Schiff market James Clapper market Letitia James market Loretta Lynch and Susan Rice Grand juries and venue shopping Florida investigations DC grand juries John Bolton classified documents case Trump pardon strategy January 6 pardons Derek Chauvin pardon market Maduro pardon market Prediction market legal trouble Kalshi Ninth Circuit case Nevada sports trading ban Political event contract regulation Fed rate hike markets Kevin Warsh Jackson Hole speech September Fed decision Congress returns to Washington Guest: Ankush Khardori — author of Open File Hosted by: Alex Keeney Pratik Chougule For more prediction market news and analysis, visit eventual.news. Sponsored segment: Includes a Polymarket ad read. Polymarket US is back in the United States at polymarket.us. Disclaimer: Eventual is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this episode should be understood as financial, legal, investment, gambling, or trading advice. Hosts, guests, and viewers may hold positions in prediction markets and may change those positions at any time. Nothing here is an endorsement to buy, sell, or trade any market. Trade safe and follow all applicable laws and platform rules in your jurisdiction. If using Polymarket US, remember it is 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Trading is risky, and 100% loss can occur. Not available in all jurisdictions. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. Some featured markets discussed may not be available to U.S. users and are included for informational purposes only. Subscribe to Eventual for prediction market news, Polymarket analysis, Kalshi coverage, legal markets, political trading, election odds, Fed markets, and probabilistic thinking. The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction. For Polymarket US users: 18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

  2. 27 Aug

    Warsh’s Big Speech, Zelenskyy Swings the Bat, PMs Face Scrutiny | Mick Bransfield

    Kevin Warsh heads to Jackson Hole, oil risk is back in the Fed conversation, Ukraine’s drone campaign is hitting Russia’s fuel supply, and prediction market regulation is entering a new phase. Alex Keeney is joined by Doug Campbell to break down the latest action across macro, geopolitics, prediction markets, and regulation. The show starts with small talk on Meta’s $18 billion settlement, the future of data centers, and the emerging political consensus as figures like Greg Abbott and Josh Shapiro turn against parts of the tech buildout. Then: Warsh Watch. With markets focused on the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole speech, Kevin Warsh faces pressure to clarify his views on inflation, rate hikes, bond markets, Treasury interventions, and the relationship between the Fed and the Treasury. What does it mean if the speech is boring? What would Warsh actually say if he wanted to signal a rate hike? And are traders overpricing the odds of a Fed hike this year? The show also connects the Fed conversation to Iran, oil, and global risk. If a deal involving Iran and Oman gets oil moving again, does that reduce pressure on inflation and make a rate hike less likely? And if oil risk fades, what does that mean for election markets? Next: Ukraine. Reports of a worsening fuel crisis inside Russia raise new questions about whether Ukraine’s drone campaign against Russian energy infrastructure is changing the war’s strategic picture. Alex and Doug look at Ukraine ceasefire markets, Russia’s gasoline shortages, and whether the current window before the midterms and Russian election creates any real chance of a deal. Then: Bet Sizing 101. Doug lays out a practical framework for sizing +EV prediction market trades without waking up at 3 a.m. to check the price — and why being underwater is not always a signal that you were wrong. Finally, Mick Bransfield joins Eventual to talk prediction market regulation. States are increasingly targeting political and election event contracts, with legal and regulatory fights developing in Arizona, Minnesota, Nevada, New York, Washington, and Wisconsin. Is this pre-election panic, legal dirty tricks, or the beginning of a larger crackdown? And does Don Jr.’s connection to the industry make prediction markets safer — or more politically exposed? Topics include: Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve rate hike markets, Inflation and bond market risk, Treasury interventions, Scott Bessent and Fed politics, Iran, Oman, and oil markets, Oil prices and election risk, Ukraine ceasefire markets, Russia gasoline shortages, Ukrainian drone strikes on energy infrastructure, Russia fuel crisis, How to size prediction market bets, +EV betting and bankroll discipline, Oracle of the Week, Dunce of the Week, Alaska voters, Rigatohni, GOP insiders, Mick Bransfield on prediction market regulation, Political event contracts, Election market regulation, Arizona criminal charges, Minnesota legislation, Nevada, New York, Washington, and Wisconsin, Don Jr. and prediction markets, Polymarket, Kalshi, and regulatory trouble   The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction. For Polymarket US users: 18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

  3. 25 Aug

    SC Votes, Trade War, & Disclosure Day | Ben Jacobs, Ben Schreckinger, & Zoltar

    Today on the show: South Carolina votes, Darline Graham and Ralph Norman are locked in a high-stakes GOP Senate fight, Canada trade war markets are moving, Scott Jennings shares are under review, and Ben Schreckinger joins Zoltar for a wild deep dive on UFOs, UAPs, alien disclosure, and prediction market rules. Alex Keeney and Brian Golden start with South Carolina for quants. With voting underway in the Republican Senate primary, Darline Graham and Ralph Norman are neck and neck in the latest Trafalgar poll. The team breaks down what traders should watch, from Horry County to Charleston to Columbia, and whether Graham’s 65–70% market price is too high, too low, or finally reflecting the race. Then: trader drama. The “MAGA Kiki Club” gossip around the Darline leak has the trader illuminati angry, Brian is in trouble, and the vibes-vs-quants debate is back. The show also checks in on the Canada trade war after Trump threatened to rename Lake Ontario “Lake America” as tensions with Canada escalate. USMCA extension odds have fallen sharply, and the question is whether traders should keep pressing the short side. If time allows, the show also turns to Scott Jennings, with new reporting suggesting Trump may want a man as White House press secretary. Are 35-cent Jennings shares still worth holding, or is it time to dump? Then Ben Jacobs joins Eventual for a South Carolina vibe check from the ground. Ben talks about what he has seen across Horry County, Charleston, Columbia, and the broader state, whether voters know there is an election, what is motivating turnout, and how he would price the Graham vs. Norman market. Ben also weighs in on Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed, Jewish voters in the Democratic Party, and what the post-MAGA Republican ecosystem could look like after Trump. CPAC, Turning Point, Don Jr.’s podcast, and the future of conservative media all make the board. Later, Gaeten Dugas joins Eventual to grade Alex and Brian’s Senate betting theses in a back-to-school segment. Finally, Ben Schreckinger of Paradigm News joins Zoltar for a pre-recorded alien disclosure segment. They discuss whether the U.S. government is covering up UFOs, what terms like “non-human intelligence,” “non-human biologics,” “UAP,” and “extraterrestrial” actually mean for prediction market resolution. The segment also covers Project Blue Book, Roswell, Lockheed Martin, Harry Reid, Anna Paulina Luna, Eric Burlison, Bobby Kennedy, Dr. Phil, disclosure politics, Japan UFO files, Brazil’s Varginha case, the Zimbabwe school UFO story, Majestic 12, and whether 2028 could produce an “aliens are real” presidential candidate. Topics include:  South Carolina GOP Senate primary, Darline Graham vs. Ralph Norman, South Carolina voting and turnout, Horry County, Charleston, and Columbia, Trafalgar polling and prediction markets, Vibes vs. quants, MAGA Kiki Club gossip, Trader illuminati drama, Canada trade war ,Trump and Lake Ontario, USMCA extension markets ,Scott Jennings White House press secretary odds, Ben Jacobs on South Carolina, Michigan Senate market ,Abdul El-Sayed and Democratic politics, Jewish voters and the Democratic Party, Post-MAGA Republican politics, CPAC, Turning Point, and Don Jr., Gaeten Dugas grades Senate bets, Ben Schreckinger on UFO disclosure, Zoltar on alien markets, Will the U.S. confirm aliens exist?, UAPs, UFOs, NHI, and non-human biologics, Trump disclosure speech rumors,  Obama alien comments, Anna Paulina Luna and congressional hearings, Eric Burlison and UAP luring claims, Bobby Kennedy and disclosure politics, Project Blue Book and Roswell, Lockheed Martin and alleged reverse engineering, Japan UFO file markets, Brazil Varginha UFO case, Zimbabwe school UFO story, Majestic 12, 2028 alien disclosure candidate The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction. For Polymarket US users: 18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

  4. 21 Aug

    Darline Graham, Scott Jennings & Dunce of the Week | Domer

    Today on the show: fake polls are back, longshots are alive, Darline Graham hits a rough patch in South Carolina, U.S. debt tops $40 trillion, and prediction market traders have plenty to sort through before September’s midterm trading wave. Alex Keeney is joined by Domer to break down the latest action across politics, elections, debt markets, and Polymarket. The show starts with small talk on White House press secretary markets, Scott Jennings, Anna Kelly, Natalie Harp, Alina Habba, fake Dan Sullivan, and encouraging signs for Mary Peltola. Then: fake polls. After another longshot hit in Florida — with Angie Nixon, not Alexander Vindman, becoming the Democratic nominee for Senate — Alex and Domer ask whether “longshot summer” is now the defining feature of political trading. If traders are overbonding favorites, are cheap longshots the best answer? Next: South Carolina. Darline Graham’s odds have fallen after a rough debate moment on U.S.–Taiwan relations raised new questions about her experience in the Senate runoff to replace Lindsey Graham. Ralph Norman is gaining attention, Graham’s market has dropped from heavy favorite territory, and traders are asking whether this is a buy-the-dip moment or the start of a real collapse. The show also turns to America’s $40 trillion debt milestone. With long-term borrowing costs in focus and the Treasury stepping in with buyback plans, Alex and Domer go long or short on shutdown odds, debt downgrade markets, and whether Trump can reduce the deficit this year. Plus: Oracle of the Week, Dunce of the Week, Cory Mills tips, and Rick Wilson discourse.   Topics include: Fake polls in election markets Prediction market scams and bad data Golden age of longshots Angie Nixon Florida Senate upset Alexander Vindman and Resistance politics Overbonding favorites Cheap longshot trades South Carolina Senate runoff Darline Graham vs. Ralph Norman Darline Graham debate fallout U.S.–Taiwan relations controversy Lindsey Graham replacement race MAGA Kiwi Club and Darline bonds White House press secretary markets Scott Jennings odds Anna Kelly, Natalie Harp, and Alina Habba Fake Dan Sullivan week Mary Peltola market signals U.S. debt hits $40 trillion Government shutdown odds U.S. debt downgrade markets Trump deficit reduction market Treasury buybacks and borrowing costs Oracle of the Week Juliegrace Brufke and Cory Mills Dunce of the Week Rick Wilson   For more prediction market news and analysis, visit eventual.news. Sponsored segment: Includes a Polymarket ad read. Polymarket US is back in the United States at polymarket.us. Get ready for major midterm trading in September. The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction. For Polymarket US users: 18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

    Darline Graham, Scott Jennings & Dunce of the Week | Domer

  5. 19 Aug

    Fake polls, Robinhood, and Hollywood | Suzy Weiss

    Alex Keeney and Brian Golden break down the return of fake polling as a prediction market risk, Florida election markets around Byron Donalds, James Fishback, and Cory Mills, and what traders should watch as political markets become more vulnerable to manipulation. Then Luke Kawa joins to discuss Robinhood’s prediction market boom, retail trading and WallStreetBets, AI capex and tech debt, Anthropic and OpenAI IPO odds, GPU prices, Fed markets, and whether markets are overreacting to Iran War headlines. Finally, Suzy Weiss of The Free Press kicks off Eventual’s pop culture coverage with Time Person of the Year, Oscars and Best Picture markets, Gen Z politics, AI anxiety, youth culture, and what prediction markets can reveal about where culture is headed. Guests: Luke Kawa (Sherwood News); Suzy Weiss (The Free Press)Hosts: Alex Keeney and Brian Golden More prediction market news and analysis at eventual.news. The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction. For Polymarket US users: 18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

  6. 13 Aug

    Polls vs. prediction marks | Lakshya Jain

    Welcome to Eventual, your OG prediction market show. Today: Marco Rubio vs. AOC in the 2028 nomination markets, inflation and Fed rate odds, the Lakers sale, the Clacton by-election, and a special election forecasting conversation with Lakshya Jain and Domer. Alex Keeney and Domer break down the latest market action, including how traders are reacting to inflation data, what to watch in Clacton, and why Rubio’s and AOC’s 2028 odds are moving. Then, in Would You Rather?, they compare holding Rubio in the Republican nominee market with AOC in the Democratic nominee market. Lakshya Jain of The Argument and Split Ticket joins Domer to unpack a wild primary night in Wisconsin, South Carolina, and Minnesota. They discuss polls vs. prediction markets, Kalshi and Polymarket, election models, market overreactions to early vote drops, and when qualitative information can outperform quantitative forecasts. Plus: Nate Silver’s new model, House and Senate forecasts, gerrymandering, jungle primaries, key races and scandal markets, Democratic socialists vs. moderates, and the strengths and limits of prediction markets as forecasting tools. The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction. For Polymarket US users: 18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

  7. 12 Aug

    Francesca Hong, Anthropic IPO, and July inflation | Jon Turek

    Today on the show: AI bubble trouble, inflation week, Wisconsin and South Carolina primary night, Fed rate odds, and Jon Turek of JST Advisors joins to talk Anthropic, macro markets, prediction market distributions, and the future of the AI boom. Alex Keeney and Brian Golden break down the biggest markets moving right now. First: inflation. With the July inflation report coming next week, oil-price pressure from the Iran conflict, an ugly jobs report, and renewed bond-market anxiety, traders are pricing what comes next for the Federal Reserve. Will inflation stay cool? Will the Fed hike in September? And is the 2026 rate-hike market mispriced? Then: elections. Wisconsin voters head to the polls with Francesca Hong a heavy favorite in the Democratic governor primary. Alex and Brian examine whether 95-cent “yes” shares are still tradable, whether margin markets are too expensive, and whether text-to-web polling is breaking down in high-turnout Democratic primaries. In South Carolina, a special Republican Senate primary triggered by Lindsey Graham’s sudden death has become a volatile market. Darline Graham, Ralph Norman, and Russell Fry are all in the mix, with polling uncertainty, runoff risk, and second-place markets creating a complicated trade setup. Plus: Nate Silver’s new model, football almost being back, the Eventual newsletter, 5 Chart Friday, the Smart Money Tracker, Seth Moulton as Pick of the Week, and Best First Trade. Finally, Jon Turek, founder of JST Advisors and contributor to the Polymarket Oracle newsletter, joins Eventual for a deep dive on AI, Anthropic, OpenAI, macro risk, and political markets. Jon explains why AI capex is entering a new phase, how to think about the “AI bubble burst” market, why Anthropic’s valuation curve may be too narrow, and how prediction markets can price outcomes traditional financial markets cannot. He also discusses open-source AI, Moonshot’s Kimi models, xAI, Alibaba, model-ranking markets, Christine Lagarde and the ECB, France’s 2027 presidential election, Marine Le Pen, and political risk in Israel. Topics include: AI bubble markets; Anthropic valuation and IPO odds; OpenAI, Google, xAI, Moonshot, Kimi, and Alibaba; AI capex and free cash flow; open-source AI; July CPI and inflation markets; Federal Reserve rate-hike odds; bond yields, oil, and Iran War inflation risk; Wisconsin’s Democratic governor primary; Francesca Hong and David Crowley; polling misses; South Carolina’s Republican Senate primary; Darline Graham, Ralph Norman, and Russell Fry; runoff markets; Nate Silver’s model; Seth Moulton vs. Ed Markey; Christine Lagarde and the ECB; France’s 2027 election; Marine Le Pen; and Israel election markets. Guest: Jon Turek — Founder, JST Advisors Hosted by: Alex Keeney and Brian Golden For more prediction market news and analysis, visit eventual.news. The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction. For Polymarket US users: 18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

  8. 7 Aug

    Iran, weed, and crypto | Natalie Fertig

    Iran diplomacy may be gaining momentum, the Strait of Hormuz could be headed toward a new security arrangement, and the Senate’s path to passing major crypto legislation is looking increasingly uncertain. Alex Keeney and Domer break down the prediction markets around Rep. Max Miller’s political future, an Israel–Iran ceasefire, U.S.–Iran negotiations, Hormuz traffic, Houthi escalation, and the odds of regime change in Iran. They also examine the latest backlash facing prediction markets after Kalshi drew criticism for contracts tied to cancer trials and regulatory decisions. Rashan Colbert joins the show to assess the CLARITY Act and whether the landmark crypto market-structure bill has any realistic path through a chaotic Senate before recess. Finally, cannabis policy reporter Natalie Fertig explains the renewed push to reschedule marijuana, the slow-moving DEA and DOJ process, the difference between Schedule I and Schedule III, and what a change in federal policy could mean for cannabis businesses, research, patients, taxes, and state legalization efforts.     The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction. For Polymarket US users: 18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

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About

Prediction Markets. Decoded.

Information

  • Creator
    Eventual
  • Years Active
    2026
  • Episodes
    23
  • Rating
    Explicit
  • Copyright
    © 2026
  • Show Website
    Eventual

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