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4 gün önce

These Are the Sharps Actually Making Money on Prediction Markets

Here's a couple things about prediction markets. A lot of it is pure gambling and speculation, much of it on things with very little economic relevance. Another fact is that in all likelihood, if you yourself started trading right now, you'd probably lose your shirt. But there is money being made by some dedicated traders, really focused on areas like politics and economics. On this episode, we speak with Brian Golden and Daniel Reichman, who are part of a private Discord called Maga Kiwi Club, where serious prediction markets traders swap ideas and make real money. We discuss the remarkable efforts they go to in order to spot opportunities, the systematic biases among traders, how they feel about insider trading, and other major issues that surround the space. Alongside Brian and Daniel, we also speak with NYC-based journalist and producer Adam Iscoe, who recently profiled these traders for The New York Times Magazine. Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Sign up at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

4 gün önce

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48 dk.
1 gün önce

One of the World's Largest Hedge Funds on Its 86x Growth in Token Spending

We've gone through a number of a technological revolutions in investing, whether it was the dawn of the high frequency trading era or the introduction of robotraders. When it comes to AI, the big question that remains in the investment context is whether or not the technology will be implemented like those past tech innovations — meaning it will be integrated into the flow of the business without upending everything as we know it — or if AI will transform the very nature of investing. Right now, AI's use in investing is a mixed bag: People are excited about its potential, but several firms are still trying to figure out its value. Today, we speak with Man Group's CTO Gary Collier and Head of Data and AI Tushara Fernando about how one of the largest publicly-traded hedge funds in the world is actually implementing AI into its work. We speak with them about empowering their quants with AI tools, the challenge of integrating AI safely, and the creative ways their staff is thinking about token spending, which is up 86-fold this year. Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Sign up here: bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

1 gün önce

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52 dk.
3 Tem

How a Major Grocery Store Chain Can Dramatically Lower the Cost of Food

In June, grocery giant Aldi opened a store just off of Times Square in Manhattan. It's the company's first location in Midtown and, according to their US Chief Commercial Officer Scott Patton, Aldi has to orchestrate a "logistical symphony" to get groceries into the middle of one of the busiest places in America. For instance, they use shorter trucks to navigate the tight corners of New York City streets. On this episode, we speak with Patton about what it took to open this specific Aldi and why they chose a busy tourist location like Times Square. He also explains how the company — famous for its low prices — is able to sell even wagyu ground beef at a consumer-friendly price point, how the mostly private-label grocer thinks through which name brands to incorporate into their stock, Aldi's cult-favorite "Aisle of Shame," a short history of barcode innovation, and how GLP-1s are changing consumer habits. Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Sign up at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

3 Tem

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51 dk.
22 Haz

Grace Shao on What the World Should Know About Chinese AI

China's AI industry has changed a lot since DeepSeek released its cheap frontier model last year, and briefly sent US tech stocks falling. After being locked out of the most advanced chips, Chinese companies are now allowed to buy some Nvidia H200s. In fact, many of the big Chinese tech companies — like Baidu — are making a push to become full-stack players, with their own chips, models, and cloud infrastructure. Today's guest is Grace Shao, an independent AI researcher and the author of the AI Proem Substack. She's a bit of an insider when it comes to China's AI industry, and when we were in Hong Kong we spoke with her about the latest in open-source models, the competition among Chinese frontier labs, DeepSeek's place in an increasingly crowded Chinese AI market, China's manufacturing edge, where bottlenecks exist right now (spoiler: it isn't data centers), if Chinese grandmas are actually using OpenClaw, and finally, of course, AI psychosis. Read More: China AI Lab’s 170% Stock Surge Cements Winner-Loser Pair Trade China Plans Mechanism to Evaluate AI Impacts on Job Market Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

22 Haz

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51 dk.
3 gün önce

Trump Heads to NATO Summit; Oil Swings as Hormuz Flows Persist

Today's top stories, with context, in just 15 minutes.On today's podcast:1) President Trump will meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at a NATO summit in Turkey on Wednesday that will be charged with tension over the US leader’s views on Greenland, European defense spending and the Iran war. Trump arrives in Turkey on Tuesday, when he will meet with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan before a summit with the full defense alliance the next day, White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said. Meantime, Ukraine failed to intercept a single Russian ballistic missile in a deadly overnight attack on the eve of the NATO summit, highlighting Kyiv’s growing vulnerability as shortages of US-made Patriot air defenses become acute and peace talks remain stalled. Eleven people were killed and 60 injured in the overnight strikes on Kyiv that caused destruction in several districts of the city, damaging multiple residential buildings, Zelenskyy said Monday on X.2) Oil fluctuated in a narrow range, as flows through the Strait of Hormuz persisted and OPEC+ signaled higher supplies. Brent traded above $72 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate was near $69. Oil and gas shipping along a US-protected corridor in the waterway showed signs of recovering Sunday, a day after several vessels had performed unexplained U-turns and detours in the energy chokepoint. Separately, OPEC+ members backed another modest rise in quotas for next month, with seven nations led by Saudi Arabia and Russia agreeing to add 188,000 barrels a day in a further roll-back of curbs made several years ago.3) US futures signaled a mild rebound in technology stocks at the start of a week in which South Korea’s memory giants will put the artificial-intelligence trade to yet another test. Nasdaq 100 contracts climbed 1% after the US holiday break. The Stoxx 600 hovered near a record high. Asian stocks fluctuated, with Samsung Electronics Co.’s 164% year-to-date rally set to face the spotlight when the chipmaker releases earnings for the June quarter on Tuesday. The report will be followed days later by peer SK Hynix Inc.’s massive ADR listing. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

3 gün önce

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15 dk.
2 Tem

100 John Does

Katie and Matt discuss sports, the weather, lobster cake, getting picked off by insider traders, the retail options casino, limiting sharp bettors, sports gambling ETFs, weird ETFs generally, bad vibes at Strategy, Bitcoin leverage and ChatGPT security design. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

2 Tem

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30 dk.
25 Haz

How the 1994 World Cup Transformed the Business of Football Forever

The last time the World Cup came to the US was 1994. Before then, the World Cup was an enormously popular event with surprisingly limited commercial significance; the 1990 tournament in Italy, for instance, lost money for broadcasters. But that all changed in 1994, when American companies sought to make their mark in the form of advertisements and sponsorships: firms like McDonalds, Mastercard, and General Motors saw the potential to reach a global audience through one of the world's most watched sports events. Today, we speak with Joey D'Urso — a freelance sports journalist and author of the recent book More Than A Shirt: How Football Shirts Explain Global Politics, Money and Power — about the 1994 World Cup and this year's competition, which is being held jointly, by the US, Canada, and Mexico. We also talk about other surprising stories of corporate and geopolitical influence in the world of football. Read more:Unilever, Pepsi Tap Celebrities, Players During World CupMexico’s Sheinbaum Invites Merlín the Duck to National Palace Amid Soccer Craze Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

25 Haz

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51 dk.
12 Haz

SpaceX Goes Public, Google’s AI Bet, World Cup Price Backlash

This week, the arrival of mega-IPOs is testing capital markets as investor appetite grows larger than supply. The federal government is making a direct investment in private technology companies, betting on quantum computing. Plus, Google is making its most radical change to search in twenty years by incorporating AI. Later, the most lucrative World Cup in history is testing how much fans are willing and able to pay for football. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

12 Haz

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48 dk.
18 Haz

Jeremy Grantham on How to Tell If a Bubble Is About to Burst

Jeremy Grantham, co-founder and long-term strategist of GMO, has a long history of calling bubbles. As he recounts in his new memoir, The Making of a Permabear: The Perils of Long-Term Investing in a Short-Term World, that includes spotting the dot-com bubble of the early 2000s, which some people see as analogous to the current excitement over AI. And when it comes to today's market, there are a lot of signs of frothiness you could point to. In this episode, we speak to Grantham about how he sees markets right now, including a watershed change for Big Tech stocks, the signs he watches out for to spot when a bubble might burst, and what really keeps him up at night. Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Sign up at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

18 Haz

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1 sa.
26 Haz

Rory Johnston on Why His $200 Oil Prediction Didn't Turn Out Right

The Strait of Hormuz has (mostly) re-opened! Crude prices are still up since the start of the war with Iran, but popular predictions earlier this year of $200-a-barrel Brent didn’t pan out. Why is that? We last talked to Rory Johnston, the founder of the Commodity Context newsletter, at the start of the conflict. And in that conversation he said that the Strait’s closure would lead to $200 oil if it persisted for any length of time. Today, he returns to tell us what he’s learned about the oil market since then. He explains the various factors that kept a lid on prices, including some re-routing, Trump jawboning, and (crucially) surprise import reductions from China. Previous: Rory Johnston on How Oil Could Surge to Over $200 a Barrel Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox, plus unlimited access to the site and app. bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

26 Haz

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32 dk.

Drawing on the journalistic strength of its global newsroom of journalists and analysts, Bloomberg’s lineup of podcasts is a mix of on the news reporting and narrative style programs.