World at Odds

Marty
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  • 每週更新兩次

World at Odds is a podcast about probability in a polarized world. I’m Matt — a former pro poker player who spent five years making a living at the tables, and someone who’s been limited or banned by multiple tier-one sportsbooks after finding sustained edge in their markets. I’ve spent years studying incentives, pricing, and EV across sports, politics, and macro events. We break down major stories using logic instead of emotion. What is the market actually pricing in? Where is the crowd overconfident? The goal isn’t to win the argument. It’s to win in the long run.

集數

  1. 8月10日

    World at Odds Episode09 | We're Back: World Cup Confessions, Betting the 2026 Midterms & NFL Value Picks

    We're back, and it's midterms season. After a long summer hiatus (Matt got his tonsils out at an age where you really shouldn't, Andrew watched wildebeest get eaten in Tanzania), we return to Matt's favorite thing to bet on: the 2026 midterm elections on Polymarket. The main event: the weird gap in the markets right now. Eight of the ten closest Senate races lean Democrat, and Republicans are still favored to keep the Senate. We get into why that's not actually crazy, what mid-decade redistricting does to a blue wave, why the House looks like a lock, and the 20-unit bet Matt just put on R Senate / D House at 40 cents. His third-biggest bet of the year. Also: the World Cup postmortem. Andrew built a basket, held it like he tells everyone to, and profited when Spain won. Matt was long Argentina, turned down a guaranteed 10 units chasing 90, and even extended his flight to watch it go wrong. Guess who's smug this episode. Plus early Super Bowl baskets (we like Bengals, Lions and Chargers; we don't like the Chiefs and Bills prices), the SpaceX ticker bet finally resolves, and Andrew bets against Google shipping a new Gemini Pro model by August 14. Insider trading, but as a spectator. Links from this episode: Balance of Power, 2026 midterms (Polymarket, referral link): https://polymarket.com/event/balance-of-power-2026-midterms?r=TaxIsTheft RealClearPolling generic ballot, this-day-in-history vs past midterms: https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/this-day-in-history/generic-ballot/2026-vs-2022-vs-2018-vs-2014-vs-2010 Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin: https://www.natesilver.net

  2. 5月10日

    World at Odds Episode08 | Polymarket's Hidden Fees, Senate Paradox & Belgium at 50-to-1

    Andrew's up 150% on the year — but sitting in all cash with nothing to bet on. Matt walks through his best opportunities right now: Democrats to take the House at 83¢, hantavirus at 10¢, the aliens bet, and Ken Paxton's Texas Senate runoff. Then we get into the real stuff: how to actually make consistent money on Polymarket. Bet what you know, chase reward markets, use limit orders, and think like a trader — not a gambler. Andrew breaks down his weather swing-trade strategy (buy at 30¢, sell at 35¢, done for the day), and Matt digs into Polymarket's fee structure — 1.8% on crypto, 1.0% on politics, 0.75% on sports, plus maker rebates that can actually put you in the green. We also spotted something weird: Republicans are favored to win the Senate at 53%, but if you add up the individual seat markets, Democrats are winning more seats. Low liquidity or real signal? We'll deep-dive midterms next episode. New bets: Both of us are buying Belgium to win the World Cup at 2¢. 🕐 Timestamps00:00 — Andrew's gambling confession01:10 — Best bets right now: House, hantavirus, aliens, Paxton08:30 — How to make money on Polymarket11:49 — Trading vs. holding: swing-trade strategy16:07 — Polymarket fee breakdown21:33 — Senate midterms: the odds paradox26:53 — New bets: Belgium World Cup at 2¢29:51 — What makes us optimistic right now 🔗 LinksPolymarket Midterms Dashboard: https://polymarket.com/predictions/midtermsArbitrage Calculator: https://www.worldatodds.com/tools/arbitrage-calculatorPrediction Market Converter: https://www.worldatodds.com/tools/prediction-market-converterScorecard: https://www.worldatodds.com/scorecardWorld Cup Betting Strategy: https://www.worldatodds.com/blog/world-cup-field-betting-strategy

  3. 4月26日

    World at Odds Episode07 | Masters Meltdown, World Cup Basket Strategy, Alien Market Glitches, Andrew Becomes a Weatherman, & NHL Playoff Picks

    Matt and Andrew return to break down their Masters disasters — Andrew had the winner (McIlroy at 7¢) and sold him drunk on pasta in Italy, while Matt lost 8 units betting against him. They unpack the "equal shares under a dollar" strategy and apply it to the 2026 World Cup, where the entire field's overround is just 2.2%. Matt reveals a compounding "money glitch" on the alien confirmation market, Andrew discovers weather betting as his new edge (including the guy who gamed a Paris weather station with a hairdryer), and they rant about bloated playoff formats in the NHL, NBA, and rugby sevens. Bets of the week: Andrew goes long on London hitting 18°C, Matt buys a 7-team NHL Stanley Cup basket for 11 units. Timestamps:00:00 — Masters postmortem: Andrew's pasta-fueled meltdown04:40 — Matt's Masters losses & the "set it and forget it" lesson06:36 — Andrew's Italy trip recap08:49 — World Cup 2026 basket strategy & overround math13:17 — World Cup excitement scale & bloated tournament formats16:08 — NHL & NBA playoff rant (overtime, seven-game series, mid-season tournaments)18:10 — Alien market update: the monthly rollover "money glitch"21:45 — Weather betting: local APIs, Hong Kong heat, and the hairdryer hack27:10 — Bets of the week: London weather & NHL Stanley Cup basket Free betting tools, blog posts, and our full scorecard at worldatodds.com Try the Arbitrage Calculator: worldatodds.com/tools/arbitrage-calculator Read: "How I Made $2,900 Betting the Texas Senate Primary" — worldatodds.com/blog/texas-primary-edge Follow us on X: https://x.com/worldatodds

  4. 4月5日

    Odds Episode06 | Polymarket Fees, Democrat Nomination Arbs, Masters Picks, SpaceX Ticker Bet, & Still Undefeated

    Polymarket drops trading fees — we break down what it means for takers and makers. Matt reveals his "free money" strategy buying the entire Democratic 2028 field for a guaranteed ROI, and we both lock in our Masters golf picks ahead of next weekend. Plus: our SpaceX ticker symbol bet (X vs. Other), Final Four profit updates, a Lyon mayoral election win, and the birth of ESUaD — Equal Shares Under a Dollar. (00:00) Intro(01:00) Polymarket Fee Announcement(02:54) Democrat Nomination Arbitrage Strategy(10:08) AI-Powered Betting Dashboards(11:16) Rapid Fire: Serious vs. Not Serious Candidates(13:08) AOC & the Nate Silver Take(16:48) Good Buy / Bad Buy Preview(20:03) The Masters — Our Picks & Strategies(27:02) Final Four & Arizona Profit Update(29:05) World Cup Teaser(30:20) Old Bets Wrap-Up & Lyon Mayoral Election Win(32:36) New Bet: SpaceX Ticker Symbol (X vs. Other)(37:06) ESUaD & ClosingFree betting tools, blog posts, and our full scorecard at worldatodds.com Try the Arbitrage Calculator: worldatodds.com/tools/arbitrage-calculator Read: "How I Made $2,900 Betting the Texas Senate Primary" — worldatodds.com/blog/texas-primary-edge Follow us on X: https://x.com/worldatodds

  5. 3月21日

    World at Odds Episode05 | Still Undefeated, Kalshi v. Arizona, World Baseball Classic Arbs, & French Mayoral Elections

    Still undefeated. Five for five on resolved bets — including Tim nailing the Oscars Best Picture pick from Episode 2. This week we dig into the prediction market industry itself: Kalshi just raised a billion dollars at a $22B valuation while simultaneously getting sued in Arizona. Is it a prediction market or a gambling operation? Meanwhile, Polymarket and Kalshi are both catching heat over "death markets," nuclear detonation bets, and the Netanyahu hoax. We break down what's real outrage and what's moral grandstanding. Matt walks through his World Baseball Classic betting strategy — finding massive price discrepancies between sportsbooks and Polymarket (Italy at 35:1 on OddsChecker vs. 144:1 on Polymarket), trading in and out of positions live, and why the U.S. was overindexed. Andrew discovers 5-minute Bitcoin markets mid-recording and immediately starts live betting during the show. We also talk about following whale wallets on prediction markets, a tool called Predictfolio for tracking top traders, and why you should be skeptical of "insider" trading narratives — including a wallet that just lost $120K betting Netanyahu was dead. New bets this week: Matt: Arizona to win March Madness at 12¢ (1 unit)Andrew: Grégory Doucet to win the Lyon mayoral election at 80¢ (5 units)Links: Website: https://www.worldatodds.comFree tools (arb calculator, hedge calculator, odds converter): https://www.worldatodds.com/toolsArbitrage calculator: https://www.worldatodds.com/tools/arbitrage-calculatorHedge calculator: https://www.worldatodds.com/tools/hedge-calculatorScorecard (live bet tracker): https://www.worldatodds.com/scorecardNew blog — How to read Polymarket prices vs. sportsbook odds: https://www.worldatodds.com/blog/polymarket-odds-explainedPredictfolio (whale wallet tracker): https://predictfolio.comOddsChecker (odds aggregator): https://oddschecker.com

  6. 3月7日

    World at Odds Episode04 | AI Trading Fails, Texas Election Edge, Masters Arbitrage

    In this episode of World at Odds, Andrew and I try to build AI trading bots for Polymarket. The experiment does not go well. One bot immediately nukes a bankroll by selling 93-cent shares for one cent. Good reminder that AI still needs adult supervision. We also break down a prediction market edge in the Texas Senate primary, where understanding runoff rules created a pricing opportunity most traders seemed to miss. Finally, we explore a potential Masters betting arbitrage strategy and whether AI can help test it. If you like prediction markets, probabilistic thinking, and finding edges in weird places, this episode is for you. Coming soon: WorldatOdds.com

  7. 3月2日

    World at Odds Episode03 | Iran, Aliens, AI Bots

    Episode03: back with co-host Andrew. We explore some +EV bets on Iran, aliens (probably), and how to get started with bots...

  8. 2月15日

    OddsOn Episode02 | Betting for Newbies, Kid Rock, Mid Terms

    Thanks to guest Tim Williams and especially to Kid Rock and Turning Point USA for making today's episode possible.

  9. 2月8日

    OddsOn Episode01 | Super Bowl LX, Greenland, 2028 Election

    The first episode! OddsOn: let's gamble on anything. Covered today: Greenland, 2028 US Presidential Election, and Super Bowl LX. A special thanks to Andrew Genung for co-hosting . And a huge thank you to Steven H for always keeping me accountable to do this! This one is dedicated to you, sir.

  • 共 9 集

簡介

World at Odds is a podcast about probability in a polarized world. I’m Matt — a former pro poker player who spent five years making a living at the tables, and someone who’s been limited or banned by multiple tier-one sportsbooks after finding sustained edge in their markets. I’ve spent years studying incentives, pricing, and EV across sports, politics, and macro events. We break down major stories using logic instead of emotion. What is the market actually pricing in? Where is the crowd overconfident? The goal isn’t to win the argument. It’s to win in the long run.

資訊

  • 創作者
    Marty
  • 活躍年代
    2026年
  • 集數
    9
  • 年齡分級
    兒少不宜
  • 版權
    © Marty
  • 節目網站
    World at Odds