Top Traders Unplugged Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
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Step into the fascinating realm of finance and investing with Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and an amazing line-up of co-hosts as your guide. Each week, we engage in captivating conversations with renowned investors, esteemed economists, skilled traders, and visionary thought leaders. Discover the wisdom derived from their journeys, embracing their triumphs and learning from their setbacks. At TTU, we strive to ignite your independent thinking, encouraging you to chart your own path to financial success. Tune in to stay informed and inspired on the ever-evolving landscape of finance and investing. Stay up-to-date with our latest episodes and blogposts at https://toptradersunplugged.com
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GM60: Preparing Your Portfolio for the Second Half of 2024 ft. Christian Mueller-Glissmann
In this episode, Cem and I welcome Christian Mueller Glissman back on the show, and together, we tackle the intricacies of capital allocation in 2024, particularly amid the pivotal elections we expect to see. We discuss the pros and cons of starting with a 60/40 portfolio allocation strategy. Cem and Christian highlight Europe's resilience to inflation and its potential energy cost advantages, making it an attractive investment destination. We also analyze how election cycles, especially during populist periods like now, influence the economy and markets. Christian shares insights on using structured products to manage volatility, and both he and Cem strongly advocate for strategies like trend following in current market conditions. Finally, we discuss what an optimal portfolio allocation should include in 2024.
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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Christian on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:39 - Christian's current big picture macro framework
07:22 - The role of volatility in inflation
12:20 - Should the 60/40 portfolio always be your starting point?
21:02 - What are the risks of the 60/40 portfolio not being the starting point?
27:37 - A scary situation in Europe?
32:16 - How election periods affect the economy
40:22 - A wall of worry
43:30 - Christian's thoughts on using structured products to reduce volatility
48:03 - A push-pull... -
SI293: Market Outlook for the Rest of 2024 & EOY S&P500 level ft. Cem Karsan
Today, I'm joined by Cem Karsan to discuss how speculations in markets affect the economy and Cem presents his view on the current state of global macro as well as a forecast for the rest of the year. How does conflicts around the world affect the global economy and why does Cem believe that we are going into a “dangerous period”? Why does Cem believe options are key to making profit from different scenarios and outcomes and what are the possibilities of seeing US rate cuts later this year? How the U.S election will impact the economy and where Cem believes the Equity markets will finish the year and much more.
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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:47 - What has been on our radar recently?
02:22 - What is the talk of the town in the vol space at the moment?
03:11 - Industry performance update
05:27 - Q1: What is Cem's view on the impact of call speculation on the VIX?
12:17 - Cem's perspective on the current state of global macro
18:09 - Important market development recently?
31:40 - Making profit from different scenarios
35:48 - The structure of markets
42:23 - Are rate cuts coming?
48:10 - How the U.S election will change the economic narrative
53:32 - The pros and cons of a win for Trump
56:49 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2023 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that... -
GM59: The Geopolitical Tug-of-War: Russia, China & the West ft. Marko Papic
Join us for an eye-opening discussion on global power dynamics with geopolitics expert Marko Papic, alongside Cem Karsan and myself, where we dive deep into the ongoing tug-of-war between the West, Russia, China, and the rest of the world. Marko sheds light on the United States' push for a clear bipolar world order. He shares his insights on whether the world as we know it is coming to an end and why a Trump presidency may pave the way for trade deals and foreign policy agreements, particularly with rivals like China. Looking ahead, Marko discusses Europe's industrial sector and explains why investing in European industrials could be a smart move. Finally, we explore the complexities of the relationship between Russia and China. Are they as close as we think? And is China's dream of becoming the next superpower within reach? We also delve into the possibility of China's move to invade Taiwan and what it would entail.
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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Marko on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:15 - Marko's current macro framework
07:20 - Moving towards a multi-polar world
14:43 - How is now different from back in the days?
23:36 - Trump landing the deglobalization plane
31:48 - The election - a macro black hole
36:47 - The new world from a non-US perspective
44:18 - What happens with Ukraine?
49:50 - An increased risk for bigger global conflicts?
56:15 - Creating strong... -
SI292: Is Cocoa becoming Too Hot for Trend Followers? ft. Rob Carver
Today, Rob Carver joins me to answer questions about MatLab as a backtesting tool, why you should be careful to apply trend following in crypto and what Rob think about seasonality and relative value as strategies. We also dive into why Rob has increased his allocation to trend following and his thought process when building portfolios, how the surging price of cocoa has impacted the trend following industry and much more.
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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:05 - What has been on our radar recently?
06:15 - Industry performance update
09:54 - Q1, Paul: Where can I learn MatLab?
13:38 - Q2, Byleth: What is Rob's experience with trend in crypto?
20:41 - Q3, Tauras: What are Rob's thoughts on seasonality and relative value as strategies?
26:23 - Are strategies like seasonality convergent?
27:14 - Rob's thoughts on relative value as a strategy
32:00 - Shock! Horror! I've increased my CTA allocation
41:07 - Rob's thought process on portfolio allocation
46:19 - Vol scaling with a nice cup of hot cocoa
57:43 - Path-dependence vs. non-path dependence
59:53 - Final thoughts and a cliff hanger
Copyright © 2023 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries... -
IL25: Any Happy Returns... the Next Super Cycle? ft. Peter Oppenheimer
In this episode Peter Oppenheimer, Chief Global Strategist and Head of Macro Research in Europe for Goldman Sachs joins us to discuss his new book Any Happy Returns: Structural Changes and Super Cycles in Markets. Peter believes financial cycles are the primary driver of investor returns. He explains how each cycle consists of four phases with distinct characteristics in terms of returns, earnings growth and valuations. We talk about the structural changes that are creating headwinds for markets in our current super-cycle and how AI and the energy transition might help offset them.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Peter on LinkedIn & read his book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:07 - Introduction to Peter Oppenheimer
04:59 - What do financial cycles derive from?
07:19 - What drives the cycles?
09:31 - A desynchronisation in the cycles
12:15 - Are we entering an optimism phase?
14:39 - Interpreting the signals
17:38 - Does Peter see room for interest rates to rise?
21:59 - What drives the high corporate profits in GDP?
26:54 - Are companies losing their... -
SI291: Trend Following...What should it mean to Investors? ft. Richard Brennan
In this episode, we are joined by Richard Brennan to discuss why now is the time to step up your trend following allocation. Rich challenges Andrew Beer’s conclusion that a 3% allocation to trend following is the sweet spot and explains why he believes the trend following industry should simplify its narrative and quit the fancy “jargon”. We also discuss what defines a trend follower and why we may be losing the incentive to keep improving as trend followers, new research on the impact of crises and much more.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:08 - What has been on our radar recently?
08:33 - Industry performance update
16:02 - What is the optimal allocation to trend following?
24:02 - Do trend followers have fiduciary responsibility?
27:09 - Why is Andrew Beer having trouble with his trend following allocation?
31:30 - Are we moving too far away from the classic trend following?
37:21 - What does it take to call yourself a trend follower?
42:01 - Discussing Corey Hoffstein's approach
46:44 - What about the fees?
50:34 - Are we losing the incentive to improve?
58:45 - The impact of crises
01:07:11 - Sign up for our new newsletter
01:08:26 - What is up for next week?
Copyright © 2023 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics