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29 ЧЕРВ.

066｜安多第二季：帝国的边缘，革命的代价 Andor Season 2: The Edge of Empire and the Cost of Revolution

【聊了什么The What】在一个充满官僚主义的银河帝国中，革命究竟意味着什么？当理想主义者遭遇现实的残酷，"正义"与"邪恶"的界限是否真的那么清晰？从Luthen的革命理念到Dedra的极权思维，剧集以令人不安的方式探讨了权力、反抗与人性的本质。革命的本质是什么？它需要什么样的代价和牺牲？从卢森的马基雅维利式的组织者形象，到帝国完美官僚的非人性，再到太空法国的群众运动，《安多》探讨了反抗与压迫、个人与集体、理想与现实之间的复杂关系。 Andor Season 2 is a unique work in the Star Wars universe that features no lightsabers, Force powers, or chosen ones, instead focusing on marginalized characters and the imperial bureaucracy. The series tells the story of how the Empire was overthrown, showcasing the desperation of ordinary people, cracks within the Empire, and the real cost of rebellion. As "a prequel to a prequel" of the original Star Wars trilogy, Andor Season 2 ends by seamlessly transitioning into the film Rogue One, revealing these characters' ultimate fates. The show explores several thought-provoking themes: Is the nature of revolution romantic idealism or bloody reality? How does the Empire's propaganda machine justify colonization and genocide through stereotypes and inciting hatred? How do characters like Luther and Dedra represent different facets of revolution and oppression? Perhaps most importantly, in an age of rampant social media where everyone claims to possess "the truth," how can we discern the reality of history? 【时间轴 The When】 3:59 我们为什么喜欢《片场风云》Why are we obsessed with the studio 7:14 展开说说 The Oner（第二集2）Let’s dive into the Oner (ep 2) 14:52 我们对Matt Remick怎么看? Is the studio head a hapless hero? Diving into Matt Remick’s character 17:20 千禧一代掌权成为草台班子本台的困境 When the millennial worker becomes an executive 23:42 《片场风云》的女配角们 The fantastic supporting ensemble of the Studio 35:52 Kool-aid Movie和文化IP The Kool-aid Movie and what it says about IP movies 39:50 Kool-aid Movie 选角与电影中的政治正确 how to balance ‘wokeness’ in casting 46:24 金球奖 The Golden Globes episode 49:54 危及好莱坞存在的才是真正的反派 Who’s the real villain threatening the film industry? 52:52 好莱坞何去何从？Where does Hollywood go from here? 【疲惫红书 CyberRed】除了播客以外，疲惫娇娃的几个女的在小红书上开了官方账号，我们会不定期发布【疲惫在读】、【疲惫在看】、【疲惫旅行】、【疲惫Vlog】等等更加轻盈、好玩、实验性质的内容。如果你想知道除了播客以外我们在关注什么，快来小红书评论区和我们互动。 Apart from the podcast, we have set up an official account on Xiaohongshu. We will periodically post content such as “CyberPink Reading,” “CyberPink Watching,” “CyberPink Traveling,” “CyberPink Vlog,” and more. Those are lighter, more fun and more experimental stuff about our lives. Leave us some comments on Xiaohongshu! 【买咖啡 Please Support Us】如果喜欢这期节目并愿意想要给我们买杯咖啡：海外用户：https://www.patreon.com/cyberpinkfm 海内用户：https://afdian.com/a/cyberpinkfm 商务合作邮箱：cyberpinkfm@gmail.com 商务合作微信：CyberPink2022 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Those Abroad: https://www.patreon.com/cyberpinkfm Those in China: https://afdian.com/a/cyberpinkfm Business Inquiries Email: cyberpinkfm@gmail.com Business Inquiries WeChat: CyberPink2022

29 черв.

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57 хв
14 ЛИП.

067｜「片场风云」：好莱坞的自黑与自救 The Studio: Hollywood's Self-Deprecation and Redemption

【聊了什么The What】 Apple TV+ 的新剧The Studio《片场风云》是一个意想不到的亮点。它是Seth Rogen创作的剧集，是一部用讽刺和结构解构整个娱乐工业的黑色喜剧。这个剧也是近年以来我们看过的最生动、最好笑、最让人尴尬、最不怕自黑的剧集。它还精准还原了电影内容行业的虚荣和危机和在这样畸形结构中的人如何自处，以及让我们去思考当下的影视工业的在科技行业和流媒体的冲击下，未来会是怎样。另外来自小蓝的抱歉：我的录制环境特别差，对不起大家座机音质！ Apple TV+'s new show The Studio is an unexpected highlight. It's a Seth Rogen-created show, a dark comedy that deconstructs the entire entertainment industry with satire and structure. The show is also one of the most vivid, funny, cringe-inducing, and unafraid of self-hatred episodes we've seen in recent years. It also accurately restores the vanity and crisis of the movie content industry and how people in such a monstrous structure can live with themselves, as well as making us think about what the future of the current movie and television industry's will look like in light of the tech industry and streaming media. 【时间轴 The When】 03:59 我们为什么喜欢《片场风云》Why are we obsessed with the studio 07:14 展开说说 The Oner（第二集2）Let’s dive into the Oner (ep 2) 14:52 我们对Matt Remick怎么看? Is the studio head a hapless hero? Diving into Matt Remick’s character 17:20 千禧一代掌权成为草台班子本台的困境 When the millennial worker becomes an executive 23:42 《片场风云》的女配角们 The fantastic supporting ensemble of the Studio 35:52 Kool-aid Movie和文化IP The Kool-aid Movie and what it says about IP movies 39:50 Kool-aid Movie 选角与电影中的政治正确 how to balance ‘wokeness’ in casting 46:24 金球奖 The Golden Globes episode 49:54 危及好莱坞存在的才是真正的反派 Who’s the real villain threatening the film industry? 52:52 好莱坞何去何从？Where does Hollywood go from here? 【拓展链接 The Links】纽约客讲《芭比》的文章 “The Studio” Pokes Fun at Hollywood’s Existential Struggle 【疲惫红书 CyberRed】除了播客以外，疲惫娇娃的几个女的在小红书上开了官方账号，我们会不定期发布【疲惫在读】、【疲惫在看】、【疲惫旅行】、【疲惫Vlog】等等更加轻盈、好玩、实验性质的内容。如果你想知道除了播客以外我们在关注什么，快来小红书评论区和我们互动。 Apart from the podcast, we have set up an official account on Xiaohongshu. We will periodically post content such as “CyberPink Reading,” “CyberPink Watching,” “CyberPink Traveling,” “CyberPink Vlog,” and more. Those are lighter, more fun and more experimental stuff about our lives. Leave us some comments on Xiaohongshu! 【买咖啡 Please Support Us】如果喜欢这期节目并愿意想要给我们买杯咖啡：海外用户：https://www.patreon.com/cyberpinkfm 海内用户：https://afdian.com/a/cyberpinkfm 商务合作邮箱：cyberpinkfm@gmail.com 商务合作微信：CyberPink2022 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Those Abroad: https://www.patreon.com/cyberpinkfm Those in China: https://afdian.com/a/cyberpinkfm Business Inquiries Email: cyberpinkfm@gmail.com Business Inquiries WeChat: CyberPink2022

14 лип.

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58 хв
09.05.2024

端闻：拜登 vs. 《纽约时报》 Biden vs. The New York Times

【聊了什么】本期节目是《端传媒》的播客节目《端闻》中的一期，小华在节目中讨论了近期美国总统拜登政府与《纽约时报》之间的矛盾冲突。《纽约时报》在政治立场上一向被视为倾向民主党和自由派，但拜登团队最近却对《纽约时报》相当不满。Politico最近的一篇报道将这一矛盾摆到了公众面前。在节目中，我们深入分析了事件的来龙去脉。播客录制完成后，双方的矛盾非但没有平息，反而因《纽约时报》执行总编周看的一次专访再度引发热议。我们在《美轮美换》会员通讯中对事件的最新进展进行了讨论，欢迎通过注册电子邮箱，免费阅读这期会员通讯的内容。【支持端传媒】欢迎你成为端传媒的订阅会员，支持华文世界不可或缺的深度报道和多元声音：https://bit.ly/3QDXSy3 【使用此链接可「尊享八折」，一次解锁端传媒、华尔街日报、当今大马会籍】【支持我们】如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去：欢迎加入我们最新推出的会员计划： https://americanroulette.ghost.io/paid-membership/ 众筹平台链接： Patreon https://www.patreon.com/americanroulette 爱发电 https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【我们是谁】美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。【 What We Talked About】 This episode of Initium Reports podcast by Initium Media, featuring Xiaohua as a guest. In this episode, we discuss the recent conflict between the Biden administration and The New York Times. The New York Times has long been viewed as leaning towards the Democratic Party and liberal ideologies. However, the Biden team has recently expressed strong dissatisfaction with the paper. A recent Politico report brought this discord into the public eye. In this episode, we delve into the origins and development of this saga. After the recording of the podcast, the conflict between the two parties did not subside. Instead, it reignited due to an interview given by the Joe Kahn, the Executive Editor of The New York Times. In the latest edition of The American Roulette’s newsletter, I discuss the latest developments in saga. You can register with your email address to read this subscriber-only newsletter for free. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Support us on AFDIAN: https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics.

09.05.2024

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24 хв
30.06.2024

019 | 灾难性的辩论之后，拜登输定了吗？Can Biden Survive the Disastrous Debate?

【聊了什么】灾难性的辩论表现让拜登的年龄问题再次成为核心焦点。主流媒体和自由派精英纷纷呼吁民主党更换候选人。但是，临阵换将真的是更好的选择吗？在本期播客中，我们回顾了拜登和特朗普在2024年首场辩论中的表现，讨论了辩论结果如何影响选情，分析了更换候选人的利弊，以及如果拜登坚持不退，他和民主党是否还有翻盘的可能。本期播客录制于6月29日。【支持我们】如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去：欢迎加入我们最新推出的会员计划众筹平台链接： Patreon 爱发电合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 00:00:53 拜登和特朗普的辩论表现回顾 00:08:06 政策从来不是辩论的重点 00:13:55 这场辩论对选情的影响 00:16:40 拜登和拜登团队的失误 00:20:01 关键还在于摇摆选民 00:22:24 拜登辩论策略的失误 00:24:56 辩论后的舆论反应 00:30:54 主流舆论要求换人的呼声和民主党高层力挺拜登 00:36:30 更换候选人的利弊 00:43:20 拜登作为候选人的合法性 00:47:30 谁能劝得动拜登 00:49:35 有人可以替换拜登吗？ 00:56:27 替换拜登的流程是怎样的？ 01:01:10 不负责任的预测【我们是谁】美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。我们的主播和嘉宾： Lokin：美国法学院学生，即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子曹起曈：青椒，政治行为研究者小华：媒体人，美政观察者【 What We Talked About】 Biden's disastrous debate performance has once again brought his age to the forefront of public concern. Mainstream media outlets and liberal elites are calling for the Democratic Party to replace their candidate. But is switching horses midstream really the better choice? In this episode, we reviewed Biden and Trump's performances in the first debate of 2024, discussed how the debate results might impact the election landscape, analyzed the pros and cons of replacing the candidate, and explored whether Biden and the Democratic Party still have a chance to turn things around if he refuses to step down. This episode was recorded on June 29th. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Support us on AFDIAN: https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 00:00:53 Review of Biden and Trump's debate performances 00:08:06 Policy was never the focus of the debate 00:13:55 The debate's impact on the election landscape 00:16:40 Mistakes made by Biden and his team 00:20:01 The key still lies with swing voters 00:22:24 Flaws in Biden's debate strategy 00:24:56 Public reaction after the debate 00:30:54 Mainstream calls for candidate replacement and Democratic leadership's support for Biden 00:36:30 Pros and cons of replacing the candidate 00:43:20 Biden's legitimacy as a candidate 00:47:30 Who could persuade Biden to step down? 00:49:35 Is there anyone who could replace Biden? 00:56:27 What's the process for replacing Biden? 01:01:10 Update on our predictions 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 曹起曈 (Thomas Cao): Assistant professor at the Tufts Fletcher School 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer 【拓展链接】恐慌、哀嚎、换马拜登？民主党完蛋？——复盘第一次总统大选辩论后的过激反应 012 | 拜登老矣，尚能饭否 Is Biden Too Old to Run?

30.06.2024

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1 год 4 хв
17.06.2024

018 | 飞黄腾达2024：谁会是特朗普的副总统 Who Could Be Trump's VP Pick

【聊了什么】特朗普选择副总统的过程被他办成了一场《飞黄腾达》，迷雾重重。这期节目录制于5月25日，但截至6月中旬，似乎也没有新的进展可以补充。一方面，特朗普确实将悬念拉满，另一方面，其实明面的牌早就摊得差不多了。除了特朗普的心思我们无法猜测，其他可以讨论的内容，你都可以在本期播客中听到。可以遇见，随着总统辩论和党代会的临近，我们距离谜底揭晓也不远了。【支持我们】如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去：欢迎加入我们最新推出的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 众筹平台链接： Patreon https://www.patreon.com/americanroulette 爱发电 https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 02:00 什么时候开始挑副总统候选人 05:05 切尼搬家：为什么总统和副总统不能来自同一个州 08:10 选副总统的基本原则：平衡选票 10:05 平衡选票之拜登选贺锦丽（Kamala Harris） 11:42 贺锦丽（Kamala Harris）的亚裔背景为什么被忽视 14:58 平衡选票之特朗普选彭斯（Mike Pence） 18:32 特朗普看重的忠诚到底是指什么 26:38 忠诚对于追求特朗普政府内职务的人更重要 28:44 尼基·黑利（Nikki Haley） 30:16 马可·卢比奥（Marco Rubio） 33:05 对副总统的执政经验的要求 40:05 特朗普需要潜在的副总统候选人干什么 41:30 继续聊黑利（Nikki Haley） 43:06 埃莉斯·史蒂芬尼克（Elise Stefanik） 46:45 JD 万斯（JD Vance） 49:10 盛产副总统的参议院 50:48 卢比奥（Marco Rubio） 52:10 蒂姆·斯科特（Tim Scott） 54:33 汤姆·科顿（Tom Cotton） 01:01:53 凯蒂·布里特（Katie Britt） 01:02:58 本·卡森（Ben Carson） 01:04:21 卡丽·莱克（Kari Lake） 01:06:23 拉瓦斯瓦米（Vivek Ramaswamy） 01:08:42 道格·伯古姆（Doug Burgum） 01:11:14 克里斯蒂·诺姆（Kristi Noem） 01:18:38 莎拉·赫卡比·桑德斯（Sarah Huckabee Sanders） 01:20:12 关于今年的总统辩论 01:26:43 格雷格·阿博特（Greg Abbott） 01:30:44 拜伦·唐纳兹（Byron Donalds） 01:32:20 图尔西·加巴德（Tulsi Gabbard） 01:33:53 神棍一下特朗普会选谁【我们是谁】美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。我们的主播和嘉宾：王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 Talich：美国政治/文化历史爱好者【 What We Talked About】 This year, Trump's selection of a vice presidential candidate has turned into a real-life version of "The Apprentice," shrouded in mystery. We recorded this episode on May 25th, and even by mid-June, there doesn't seem to be much new information. On one hand, Trump has genuinely kept the suspense high; on the other, it shows that the obvious options have already been laid out. While we can't predict Trump's thoughts, you can catch up on everything else worth discussing in this episode. As the first presidential debate and GOP convention approach, the revelation of his choice is likely not far off. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/americanroulette Support us on AFDIAN: https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 02:00 When to start picking the Vice President candidate 05:05 Dick Cheney: Why the President and Vice President cannot be from the same state 08:10 Basic principles of choosing a Vice President: Balancing the ticket 10:05 Balancing the ticket: Biden choosing Kamala Harris 11:42 Why Kamala Harris's Asian background was overlooked 14:58 Balancing the ticket: Trump choosing Pence 18:32 What loyalty means to Trump 26:38 Loyalty is more important for those seeking positions within the Trump administration 28:44 Nikki Haley 30:16 Marco Rubio 33:05 Requirements for the Vice President's governing experience 40:05 What Trump needs from potential Vice Presidential candidates 41:30 Back to Nikki Haley 43:06 Elise Stefanik 46:45 JD Vance 49:10 The Senate as a breeding ground for Vice Presidents 50:48 Marco Rubio 52:10 Tim Scott 54:33 Tom Cotton 01:01:53 Katie Britt 01:02:58 Ben Carson 01:04:21 Kari Lake 01:06:23 Vivek Ramaswamy 01:08:42 Doug Burgum 01:11:14 Kristi Noem 01:18:38 Sarah Huckabee Sanders 01:20:12 About this year's presidential debates 01:26:43 Greg Abbott 01:30:44 Byron Donalds 01:32:20 Tulsi Gabbard 01:33:53 Irresponsible prediction on who Trump will choose 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information Talich: U.S. politics, history, and culture enthusiast

17.06.2024

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1 год 39 хв
28.01.2024

004 | 我们是杀不死的女巫后代 We Are the Descendants of Witches You Could Not Burn

【聊了什么The What】 2024 年伊始，三位接受唯物主义教育的福娃聚在一起聊聊星座、迷思、现代巫术，以及玄学实践对于女性和性少数社群的重要性。我们聊了聊女巫的历史——从中世纪的迫害，到现代流行文化之中的演绎，最后落回那些发生在我们自己身上的奇妙时刻。 At the beginning of 2024, three atheist feminists gathered to chat about astrology, myths, modern witchcraft, and the significance of occult practices for women and queer communities. We delved into the history of witchcraft, from the persecution in the Middle Ages to their reinterpretation in contemporary popular culture, finally landing on the magical moments that have occurred in our own lives. 【时间轴 The When】 01:00 从中年女性崛起开始聊聊玄学 03:23 哈利波特的女巫世界对我们的影响 13:18 迪士尼公主还是折翼的女巫？ 19:15 中国巫师——自由职业者的巅峰？ 26:27 聊聊欧美的猎巫历史与计划生育 44:03 日常玄学实践：星座、八字、MBTI 57:58 现代巫术的不同模样：做梦、泡澡、跳舞、煲汤 1:07:31 我们的月经故事 1:21:36 重新想象月经APP：身体的阴晴圆缺 1:25:39 科学法术之现代女巫会编程 01:00 Let’s about metaphysics through the rise of middle-aged women 03:23 Lasting cultural influences of Harry Potter 13:18 Disney princesses or queer witches? 19:15 Chinese wizards have the best freelance gigs? 26:27 Europe's witch-hunting history and family planning laws 44:03 Everyday occult practices: Astrology, fortune-telling, MBTI 57:58 Modern witchcraft is amongst us: Dreaming, bathing, dancing, soup-making 1:07:31 Our period stories 1:21:36 Reimagining period apps: keeping time with the moon 1:25:39 Scientific witchcraft: Programmers as witches (...yes) 【拓展链接 The Links】女巫之槌https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-hant/%E5%A5%B3%E5%B7%AB%E4%B9%8B%E6%A7%8C 舞踏 https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-hans/%E8%88%9E%E8%B8%8F 【我们是谁】大波福娃是一档中文女权喜剧播客。我们希望用笑声对抗禁忌，用幽默消解规训。这里聚集了一群长期在海外生活的女权主义者，我们通过嬉笑怒骂的方式观察世界，调侃父权。我们想创造一个安全的空间，鼓励更多由女性和酷儿群体主导的对话，为宇宙指明发展的方向！ “Dat Beauvoir” is a Chinese feminist comedy podcast. We aim to combat taboos with laughter and dissolve patriarchal norms with humor. Here gathers a group of diasporic feminists residing overseas. Together we observe the world, mocking male supremacy through playful banter. We want to create a safe space, encouraging more conversations led by women and LGBTQ+ communities, shedding light on the right path for the universe's future with laughter and satire! 本期我们的主播和嘉宾：张波儿 (she/her)：一位擅长制造快乐的工业设计大波巫师跑跑（they/them）：工匠/小丑/人民教师/高科技亚逼（消歧义），尊重且热爱谐音梗小苕 (it/its)：一颗坡塔头，咖喱牛腩里的薯仔，地三鲜里的土豆 Our hosts and guests: Boobor (she/her): One busty witch designer with a masters in the arts of manufacturing happiness! Runrun (they/them): local shop tech / clown / adjunct / computer beep boops, pun always intended. Shao (it/its): A potato with Chinese characteristics. Can’t be fried or smashed. 本期节目由张波儿制作，Valerie 进行音频编辑。Ruby 设计封面，跑跑制作音乐。大波福娃是一档由百花传媒出品的播客。 This episode was produced by Boobor, edited by Valerie. Logo design by Ruby. Music produced by Runrun. Dat Beauvoir is a podcast produced by Baihua Media. 【支持我们】如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去：众筹平台链接： Patreon https://www.patreon.com/datbeauvoir 爱发电 https://afdian.net/a/datbeauvoir 合作投稿邮箱：dat.beauvoir.pod@gmail.com

28.01.2024

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1 год 31 хв
15.10.2024

029 | 2024年美国大选民调还能信吗？Can We Still Trust 2024 Election Polls?

【聊了什么】大选进入冲刺阶段，选举民调再次成为焦点。然而，过去几次选举中民调的频繁失准，让人不禁质疑：我们还能相信民调吗？在这期节目中，我们深入探讨了民调的方方面面，从民调的制作过程，到比较全国民调和摇摆州民调的可靠性。我们分析了近年来民调越来越不准的原因，探讨了2024年民调的新变化，并且分析了内部民调的准确性。当然，今年民调到底准不准，要到11月5日之后才能见分晓了。美轮美换的网站上也推出了对最新民调、民调均值、选举预测的每日追踪，欢迎访问网站，并订阅成为免费或付费会员。 https://theamericanroulette.com/us-election-2024-latest-polls-news-harris-trump/ 【支持我们】如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去：欢迎在看理想订阅收听《美国大选与世界转向》节目： https://www.vistopia.com.cn/detail/372 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-4封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 00:01:00 各位主播看民调的姿势 00:04:51 民调是怎么做出来的？ 00:13:40 为什么美国还在用固定电话做民调？ 00:17:48 为什么近年的民调会不准？ 00:26:40 2024年民调做了什么调整？ 00:32:58 为什么做民调这么难？ 00:41:19 今年的民调会高估或低估特朗普吗？ 00:44:48 摇摆州民调会更靠谱吗？ 00:48:45 内部民调靠谱吗？ 00:52:50 民主党和共和党对民调不同的反应 1:04:10 选举预测模型靠谱吗？【我们是谁】美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。本期的主播和嘉宾： Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者 Lokin：美国法学院毕业生，即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子曹起曈：青椒，政治行为研究者主播和嘉宾的言论不代表其所在机构或其雇主的观点。【 What We Talked About】 With the election in its final stretch, polls are once again in the spotlight. But after a string of high-profile misses in recent elections, many are asking: can we still trust the polls? In this episode, we dive deep into the world of political polling, examining everything from how polls are conducted to the reliability of national vs. swing state polls. We explore why polls have become less accurate in recent years, what changes pollsters are making for 2024, and whether internal campaign polls offer any better insight. Of course, the true test of this year's polls won't come until after Election Day on November 5th. Join us for a critical look at the state of political polling in America today. The American Roulette website has launched daily tracking of the latest polls, poll averages, and election predictions. Visit our site and consider becoming a free or paid subscriber for access to these insights. https://theamericanroulette.com/us-election-2024-latest-polls-news-harris-trump/ 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 00:01:00 The hosts' approach to interpreting polls 00:04:51 The mechanics of polling: How are they conducted? 00:13:40 Landlines in modern polling: Why do they persist? 00:17:48 Unpacking recent poll inaccuracies 00:26:40 Polling in 2024: Key adjustments and changes 00:32:58 The challenges of accurate polling 00:41:19 Trump and the polls: Potential for over or underestimation? 00:44:48 Swing state polls: A more reliable indicator? 00:48:45 Internal polls: Trustworthy or misleading? 00:52:50 Partisan responses to polling: Democrats vs. Republicans 1:04:10 Election prediction models: How reliable are they? 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer 曹起曈 (Thomas Cao): Assistant professor at the Tufts Fletcher School The views expressed by the host and guests do not represent the opinions of their employers or any affiliated institutions. 【拓展链接】 https://theamericanroulette.com/us-election-2024-latest-polls-news-harris-trump/ https://www.nytimes.com/by/nate-cohn

15.10.2024

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1 год 14 хв
21 КВІТ.

062 |「白莲花度假村」第三季：身份即牢笼 White Lotus S3: Identity as Prison

【疲惫广播 What's New】上周疲惫娇娃的阿花和一芳受邀参加了在东京举办的星战盛典，请大家移步小红书看我们的精彩采访和现场直击！《安多》第二季也即将开播！欢迎大家点这里回顾我们聊第一季的节目！【聊了什么 The What】「白莲花度假村」第三季是今年在美国极具文化影响力的一部剧集，由HBO出品，Mike White（麦克白）导演编剧并且制作。第三季将故事转移至泰国，铺垫了整整八集沉重气氛给天堂版的背景增添了一丝诡异和不详。北卡莱罗纳州Ratliff家族的表面光鲜与内里腐朽；Rick与Chelsea这对灵魂伴侣背后隐藏的深渊；三位闺蜜之间那微妙平衡的友谊和人生；第一季返场人物Belinda与Greg/Gary的命运再度交织；所有人物的结局都像一场精心设计的因果轮回。在这个看似奢华的度假天堂里，每个人都被困在自己的身份牢笼中无法脱身。当暴力事件最终爆发，我们是否能从这些角色的命运中看到自己的影子？信仰的缺失是否就是现代人痛苦的根源？这部剧巧妙借鉴佛教寓言，融入业力、痛苦之源贪嗔痴等等概念，为观看的我们提供了一面审视自我的镜子。这集播客小蓝和一芳请来朋友阿点一起聊聊这部让我们和全网观众欲罢不能的电视剧。注意：本节目完全剧透！我们在讨论中尽量让没看过的听众也能听懂。如果你已经看过可以跳过梗概，如果还想看而且介意剧透建议收藏，之后再听。本期嘉宾：阿点（欢迎订阅阿点的newsletter） "The White Lotus" Season 3 is one of the most culturally influential series this year, produced by HBO and directed, written, and produced by Mike White. The third season moves the story to Thailand, building up a heavy atmosphere over eight episodes that adds a touch of the strange and ominous to the paradise-like setting. The seemingly perfect but inwardly corrupt Ratliff family from North Carolina; the abyss hidden behind the "soulmate" relationship of Rick and Chelsea; the delicately balanced friendship and lives of three girlfriends; the intertwined destinies of Season 1 returning characters Belinda and Greg/Gary - all characters' endings seem like a carefully designed karmic cycle. Compared to the previous two seasons, the third season is more of a philosophical journey about identity, desire, and redemption, drawing on the director's own research and thinking about Buddhism, skillfully incorporating concepts such as karma and the three poisons (greed, anger, and delusion) into the plot, providing us with a mirror to examine modern society and human nature. In this podcast episode, Xiaolan and Yifang invite their friend Adian to discuss this TV series that has made us and viewers across the internet unable to stop watching. Note: This episode contains complete spoilers! We try to make our discussion understandable to listeners who haven't seen the show. If you've already watched it, you can skip the plot summary; if you still want to watch and mind spoilers, we suggest bookmarking this episode to listen to later. Guest: A Dian (Subscribe to her newsletter) 【买咖啡 Please Support Us】如果喜欢这期节目并愿意想要给我们买杯咖啡：海外用户：https://www.patreon.com/cyberpinkfm 海内用户：https://afdian.com/a/cyberpinkfm 商务合作邮箱：cyberpinkfm@gmail.com 商务合作微信：CyberPink2022 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Those Abroad: https://www.patreon.com/cyberpinkfm Those in China: https://afdian.com/a/cyberpinkfm Business Inquiries Email: cyberpinkfm@gmail.com Business Inquiries WeChat: CyberPink2022 【时间轴 The When】 00:03:43 看过的可以跳过：剧透警告与人物介绍 00:08:42 白莲花这一季和往季的区别，观影第一印象 00:18:08 全网出圈的《白莲花度假村》梗，杜克大学“紧急公关” 00:25:23 三位闺蜜：女性友谊背后的嫉妒、理解和爱；为什么Laurie那段话让我们哇哇大哭 00:35:02 美国南方老钱核心家庭的光鲜和腐朽 00:53:43 Rick和Chelsea，救赎与被救赎的佛教寓言 01:20:51 第三世界男性与第一世界女性的权力关系 01:26:39 麦克白的创作意图：不以道德说教为目的的叙事 00:03:43 You can skip if you've already watched: Spoiler warning and character introductions 00:08:42 Discussing how this season of White Lotus differs from previous seasons, and first impressions 00:18:08 Viral White Lotus memes, Duke University's “emergency PR response” 00:25:23 The three girlfriends: jealousy, understanding and love in female friendships; why Laurie's speech made us ugly cry 00:35:02 Troubled Southern old-money nuclear family and sibling dynamics 00:53:43 Rick and Chelsea, a Buddhist parable of redemption and being redeemed 01:20:51 Power dynamics between Third World men and First World women 01:26:39 Mike White's creative intentions: narrative without moral preaching 【拓展链接 The Links】 020 | 「白莲花度假村」：出淤泥而全染的人间群像 "The White Lotus 2": a scan of reality 【疲惫红书 CyberRed】除了播客以外，疲惫娇娃的几个女的在小红书上开了官方账号，我们会不定期发布【疲惫在读】、【疲惫在看】、【疲惫旅行】、【疲惫Vlog】等等更加轻盈、好玩、实验性质的内容。如果你想知道除了播客以外我们在关注什么，快来小红书评论区和我们互动。 Apart from the podcast, we have set up an official account on Xiaohongshu. We will periodically post content such as “CyberPink Reading,” “CyberPink Watching,” “CyberPink Traveling,” “CyberPink Vlog,” and more. Those are lighter, more fun, and more experimental stuff about our lives. Leave us some comments on Xiaohongshu! 【听众专属福利】一起订阅《三联生活周刊》数字刊会员年卡吧！ 🎉 疲惫娇娃专属渠道粉丝下单享受六折优惠🎉

21 квіт.

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1 год 34 хв
6 ЧЕРВ.

054 | 马斯克和特朗普的关系升空又落地 Trump and Musk’s public blowup

【聊了什么】 2025年6月5日，美国总统特朗普与世界首富马斯克在社交媒体上展开激烈公开争吵，二人的政治联盟正式宣告（暂时）破裂。从马斯克公开抨击共和党的“大而美法案”，到特朗普暗示其患有“特朗普精神错乱综合症”，再到马斯克抛出所谓“爱泼斯坦档案”的重磅炸弹，双方的矛盾在短短一天内迅速激化，隔空骂战不断升级。本期节目复盘这场引爆舆论的风暴。我们探讨了这场争吵究竟是源于原则之争，还是赤裸裸的利益冲突？马斯克在共和党和MAGA运动中的影响力究竟有多大，他是否高估了自己？这场风暴又将如何影响“大而美”法案的参议院前景。本期节目录制于2025年6月5日美国东部时间晚间10点左右。【美轮美换 × 疲惫娇娃线上读书会】我们最近将与友台《疲惫娇娃》联合举办一场线上读书会活动，这次讨论的是今年的一本新书——《Abundance》。读书会对美轮美换付费会员免费开放（请使用会员邮箱登录在下方页面获取折扣码），也欢迎大家打赏支持。详情请见此链接：https://theamericanroulette.com/hui-yuan-huo-dong-mei-lun-mei-huan-x-pi-bei-jiao-wa-xian-shang-du-shu-hui-abundance/ 【支持我们】如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去：也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 00:00:36 特朗普与马斯克公开决裂 00:07:11 决裂背后的三种理论：原则之争、利益冲突还是积怨已久？ 00:14:04 决裂风波对“大而美法案”的影响：参议院政治博弈与法案前景 00:17:43 意见领袖还是负资产？马斯克的政治影响力与民主党应对策略 00:26:28 马斯克的底牌与共和党内派系斗争 00:39:34 马斯克与政治的“水土不服” 【我们是谁】美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。我们的主播和嘉宾： Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子小华：媒体人曹起曈：青椒，政治行为研究者主播和嘉宾的言论不代表其所在机构或其雇主的观点。【 What We Talked About】 On June 5, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump and the world's richest man, Elon Musk, erupted into a fierce public dispute on social media, marking the formal (and temporary) rupture of their political alliance. From Musk's public criticism of the Republican "Big Beautiful Bill" to Trump suggesting Musk suffers from "Trump Derangement Syndrome," and then to Musk dropping the bombshell of the so-called "Epstein files," the conflict between the two escalated rapidly within a single day, with their war of words intensifying online. This episode unpacks this firestorm that has captivated public attention. We explore whether this feud stems from a clash of principles or a naked conflict of interest. We assess the true extent of Musk's influence within the Republican Party and the MAGA movement, and whether he overestimated his own standing. Finally, we analyze how this fallout will impact the prospects of the "Big Beautiful Bill" bill in the Senate. This episode was recorded on June 5, 2025, at approximately 10 p.m. U.S. Eastern Time. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 00:00:36 Trump and Musk's Public Fallout 00:07:11 Three Theories Behind the Fallout: A Clash of Principles, a Conflict of Interest, or a Long-Building Feud? 00:14:04 The Fallout's Impact on the 'Big and Beautiful Bill': Senate Politics and the Bill's Future 00:17:43 An Opinion Leader or a Liability? Musk's Political Influence and the Democrats' Strategy 00:26:28 Musk's Leverage and Republican Infighting 00:39:34 Musk's Awkward Fit in Politics 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer 曹起曈 (Thomas Cao): Assistant professor at the Tufts Fletcher School The views expressed by the host and guests do not represent the opinions of their employers or any affiliated institutions. 【The Links】 https://theamericanroulette.com/elon-musk-donald-trump/

6 черв.

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42 хв
13 КВІТ.

050 | 特朗普关税风暴：草台班子的大棋？Trump's Tariff Storm: A Ragtag Crew's Grand Strategy?

【聊了什么】特朗普在4月2日「解放日」突然宣布对全球主要贸易伙伴加征高额「对等关税」，引发金融市场剧烈动荡。在短短一周内经历了180度大转弯——对除中国外的多数国家暂停征收额外关税，但对华关税则进一步升级。这背后究竟发生了什么？是特朗普政府深思熟虑的「一盘大棋」，旨在重塑全球贸易格局、打击特定国家？还是白宫内部不同派系——财政部、贸易鹰派（如纳瓦罗）、经济顾问（如Stephen Miran）——目标各异、甚至相互矛盾的结果？特朗普本人对关税根深蒂固的执念，与他第二任期不受约束的执政风格，又在其中扮演了什么角色？本期节目，我们邀请了全球市场的交易员Sagar一起深入解读这场关税风暴。本期节目录制于4月12日。【支持我们】如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去：也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 02:04 事件回顾：特朗普4月2日宣布「对等关税」及后续反转 04:01 关税公式背后的荒谬逻辑 07:18 特朗普对关税的长期执念 vs 第二任期的放飞自我 12:43 三盘「大棋」：财政部 vs 纳瓦罗 vs 米兰 17:09 市场反应与经济影响 24:47 特朗普的核心动机：财政压力还是个人意志？ 30:00 美债市场的动荡及其影响 42:18 政治影响：国会反应、特朗普党内控制力 01:03:25 未来展望：谈判前景、多边贸易体系的挑战 01:07:01 TikTok问题与中美贸易谈判【我们是谁】美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。我们的主播和嘉宾：小华：媒体人王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 Sagar：全球市场交易员【 What We Talked About】 On "Liberation Day," April 2nd, Donald Trump abruptly announced hefty "reciprocal tariffs" on major global trading partners, sending shockwaves through financial markets. Within just one week, the policy underwent a dramatic U-turn – additional tariffs were suspended for most countries except China, whose tariffs were instead escalated. What truly happened behind the scenes? Was it a calculated "grand strategy" by the Trump administration aimed at reshaping global trade and targeting specific nations? Or was it the result of conflicting, even contradictory, goals among different factions within the White House – the Treasury Department, trade hawks like Navarro, and economic advisors like Stephen Miran? What role did Trump's own deep-seated obsession with tariffs and his less constrained governing style in his second term play? In this episode, we invite Sagar, a global markets trader, for an in-depth analysis of this tariff turmoil. This episode was recorded on April 12th. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 02:04 Recap: Trump's April 2nd "Reciprocal Tariffs" & Subsequent Reversals 04:01 The Absurd Logic Behind the Tariff Formula 07:18 Trump's Longstanding Tariff Obsession vs. Second Term Unbound 12:43 Three "Grand Strategies": Treasury vs. Navarro vs. Miran 17:09 Market Reaction & Economic Impact 24:47 Trump's Core Motivations: Fiscal Pressure or Personal Will? 30:00 US Treasury Market Turmoil & Its Impacts 42:18 Political Fallout: Congressional Reaction, Trump's GOP Control 01:03:25 Future Outlook: Negotiation Prospects, Challenges to Multilateral Trade 01:07:01 The TikTok Issue & US-China Trade Talks 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information Sagar: Global Markets Trader 【The Links】 https://ustr.gov/issue-areas/reciprocal-tariff-calculations https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/638199_A_Users_Guide_to_Restructuring_the_Global_Trading_System.pdf https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/2025/04/cea-chairman-steve-miran-hudson-institute-event-remarks/

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Baihua Media is dedicated to informing and empowering the growing Chinese-speaking diaspora community around the world, by serving honest dialogues, encouraging open communications, and empowering authentic expressions, through a network of high-quality Chinese-language podcasts.

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