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6 NGÀY TRƯỚC

The Consumer Cushion Is Almost Gone | Weekly Roundup

Markets are partying like it’s 2021 again, but consumers are cracking, inflation is heating up, and policymakers may be losing control. This week, we unpack the AI-driven melt-up in equities, the hidden stress building across Main Street, and why hyperscaler debt, derivatives mania, and rising bond yields are creating an increasingly unstable macro backdrop. We also explore the consumer slowdown, Nvidia selling chips to China, tariff reversals, retail speculation, energy inflation, Fed paralysis, and the growing disconnect between capital markets and the real economy. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Dell Children’s Fundraiser 05:55 Monster Earnings And AI 07:59 Is This A Bubble? 12:52 The AI Economy Flywheel 14:56 Frothy AI Positioning 20:10 Consumer Stress Hits Retail 27:17 Main Street Is Breaking 31:54 Yields Pressuring Markets 34:41 Who Removes The Punch Bowl? 39:24 Will The Fed Accommodate AI? 42:26 Trump’s Policy Reversal 47:02 Populism Against AI Politics 51:55 $10k Donation Goal FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1dYIYTeh-rRK9vHQG_Qa_6GtJuQbbcbc5/view?usp=sharing › Dell Children's Donation – https://give.supportdellchildrens.org/team/826061 DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

6 ngày trước

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53 phút
13 THG 5

The Fed Is Losing Its Easing Bias While AI Props Up The Economy | Neil Dutta

AI is holding up the economy, but the foundation underneath is getting harder to read. Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro joins Forward Guidance to unpack why inflation, labor, and AI capex are reshaping the Fed’s path. We cover the consumer squeeze, K-shaped spending, manufacturing data, Warsh’s Fed, and supply-shock volatility. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 01:54 The Real Inflation Story 06:26 Fed’s Higher Inflation Threshold 08:18 Why Labor Hasn't Broken 12:04 How To Read Supply Shocks 14:58 The Consumer Strength Illusion 19:20 The K-Shaped Consumer Debate 22:30 The AI Capex Macro Risk 26:03 Inside Trade & Manufacturing Data 29:18 Is Manufacturing Really Booming? 36:43 Warsh Faces An Impossible Fed 45:41 Fed Volatility Vs White House Policy 48:14 Final Thoughts FOLLOW NEIL DUTTA › X/Twitter – https://x.com/RenMacLLC FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward. Guidance– https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

13 thg 5

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49 phút
9 THG 5

Oil And AI Are Breaking The Middle Class | Weekly Roundup

Markets are ripping while geopolitical risk, inflation, and class tensions boil under the surface, creating a growing disconnect between booming asset prices and the economic reality facing most people. This week, we break down the oil market, AI-driven growth, and the inflation dynamics shaping the global economy. We debate whether policymakers are intentionally running the economy hot to preserve growth and geopolitical leverage. We also dive into gold, housing, AI job disruption, consumer weakness, inequality, and why the next political and economic cycle could look even more unstable than markets expect. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:38 Oil Inventories Near Stress Levels 07:38 Trading Oil Volatility 13:45 Oil, China, And AI 17:13 Energy Exports Versus AI Imports 20:22 Can Statecraft Survive Inflation? 24:35 Earnings Keep Ripping 26:25 Run-It-Hot Inflation Regime 30:07 Gold Returns To The Spotlight 33:01 Run It Hot, Leverage, & Centralization 40:47 AI Hits The Labor Market 44:53 Housing And Replacement Costs 47:50 Inflation Hits Everyday Life FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-r4fcVGPGE15TIZN9JOGLQLu5ATcGPYl/view?usp=sharing DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

9 thg 5

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54 phút
6 NGÀY TRƯỚC

AI Feels Like Crypto In 2017, Circle Raises $222M and Anthropic Cracks Down On SPVs

This week, we’re back with another weekly roundup to discuss the current AI mania and how it feels similar to crypto in 2017. We then deep dive into Circle's $222M raise, expectations for the Clarity Act, Anthropic's crackdown on SPVs and more. Enjoy! -- Follow Jason: https://x.com/JasonYanowitz Follow Santi: https://x.com/santiagoroel Follow Rob: https://x.com/HadickM Follow Empire: https://x.com/theempirepod -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (05:44) AI Today Feels Like Crypto In 2017 (27:12) Circle Raises $222M (46:15) The Clarity Act (59:03) Anthropic Cracks Down On SPV’s (01:10:30) Content of The Week -- Disclaimer: Nothing said on Empire is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Santiago, Jason, Rob and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

6 ngày trước

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1 giờ 16 phút
6 THG 5

Passive Easing Is Fueling The Next Inflation Wave | Danny Dayan

Inflation may be reaccelerating just as policymakers are mistaking inaction for restraint. Danny Dayan joins the show to explain why passive easing, loose financial conditions, and supply shocks could leave the Fed behind the curve again. We discuss inflation, oil, labor supply, neutral rates, risk assets, the dollar, commodities, and why the melt-up may continue. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:53 Why Is Growth So Strong? 07:31 How Forward Guidance Drives Policy 11:53 Ads (Fidelity Crypto) 12:45 Why Oil Hasn’t Broken Growth 19:02 Why Inflation Won’t Die 21:52 What Warsh Changes At The Fed 29:54 Ads (Fidelity Crypto) 30:38 Why The Fed Is Always Late 36:45 The Fed’s Neutral Rate Mistake 43:05 The Melt-Up Trade Setup 48:57 Where To Find Danny FOLLOW DANNY DAYAN › X/Twitter – https://x.com/DannyDayan5 › Substack – https://dannydayan.substack.com/ FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks SPONSORS › FIDELITY CRYPTO This episode is brought to you by Fidelity Crypto. Learn more at Fidelity.com/crypto Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto. Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of complete loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services, LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC. https://www.fidelity.com/crypto/trading DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

6 thg 5

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50 phút
1 NGÀY TRƯỚC

Figure Co-Founder: How Figure Became A $10B Business | Mike Cagney

This week, Mike Cagney joins the show to discuss Figure and how it became the leading non-bank HELOC lender in the U.S. We deep dive into how Figure leverages blockchain rails to scale the next evolution of capital markets before Mike shares his thoughts on tokenization, being a public vs private company, how to fix tokens and more. Enjoy! -- Follow Mike: https://x.com/mcagney Follow Jason: https://x.com/JasonYanowitz Follow Empire: https://x.com/theempirepod -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (03:20) How Do Blockchains Disrupt Capital Markets? (09:28) Why Did Mike Build Figure? (27:00) Will Figure Launch a Wallet? (38:05) SoFi’s Superbowl Ads (45:42) Tokenizing Equities (55:08) The Provenance Blockchain (01:01:46) Being a Public vs Private Company (01:07:18) How To Fix Tokens (01:12:27) What’s Next For Crypto In 5 Years? -- Disclaimer: Nothing said on Empire is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Santiago, Jason, Rob and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

1 ngày trước

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1 giờ 15 phút
5 NGÀY TRƯỚC

The $70B AI IPO, Claude Cracks a Lost Wallet, and CLARITY Advances | The Breakdown

Hyperliquid enabled early exposure to the biggest AI IPO of the year. Claude helped recover a Bitcoin wallet locked for 11 years. And CLARITY made it through markup. David runs through all three. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 01:05 Cerebras 12:42 Claude Rescues Wallet 19:17 CLARITY Markup Update FOLLOW THE SHOW › David — https://x.com/dcanellis › The Breakdown — https://x.com/TheBreakdownBW Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to the Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ DISCLAIMER As always, remember this podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely their opinions, not financial advice.

5 ngày trước

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26 phút
2 NGÀY TRƯỚC

The Messy State of Crypto Governance with Jito Foundation's Nick Almond | The Breakdown

Nick Almond of the Jito Foundation joins David to walk through why DAO governance is a mess, what “pragmatic decentralization” looks like in practice, and how the CLARITY Act will reshape governance going forward. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (01:22) Why Governance Matters (03:43) Token Voting (05:12) Delegates and Multisigs (08:56) Nexo Ad (09:30) Sub-DAOs and Specialization (11:33) Governance Tokens Origins (15:47) Pragmatic Decentralization (18:22) Cosmetic Votes and Value (20:37) Nexo Ad (21:35) Arbitrum Governance (25:59) Regulation and CLARITY (29:11) Bitcoin Governance Lessons (34:03) Meta Governance and Agility (36:48) Tokens as Equity Future (39:41) Closing Thoughts FOLLOW THE SHOW › David — https://x.com/dcanellis › The Breakdown — https://x.com/TheBreakdownBW › Nick Almond — https://x.com/DrNickA › Jito Foundation — https://x.com/jito_sol SPONSORS › NEXO Nexo is the premier digital wealth platform. Receive interest on your crypto, borrow against it without selling, and trade a range of assets. Now available in the U.S with 30 days of exclusive privileges. Get started at http://nexo.com/breakdown Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to the Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ DISCLAIMER As always, remember this podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely their opinions, not financial advice.

2 ngày trước

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42 phút
30 THG 4

Central Bank Control Is Breaking | Weekly Roundup

Markets may be entering a volatile new regime where inflation, geopolitics, and policy fragmentation collide, challenging the stability investors have relied on for decades. This week, we break down the latest Fed meeting and what it signals about shifting power from central banks toward fiscal and political forces shaping markets. We also explore rising inflation pressures, fiscal dominance, oil shocks, Japan’s growing instability, and why traditional macro playbooks may no longer apply. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 03:08 Fed Dissents And Warsh 08:45 No Cuts Without Crisis 11:04 End Of The Powell Era 14:03 Ads (Fidelity Crypto) 15:01 Global Yields Break Higher 17:23 Inflationary Growth Regime 20:11 Oil Shock Hits Markets 23:25 Export Ban Risk 28:26 Late Cycle Boom 36:34 Japan’s Breaking Point 48:24 Carry Trade Lose Lose 53:08 The Yield Smile 57:05 Inflation Wave Baked In 01:00:25 Hard Assets Win FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1pKJPVYyMItlwJcDPJiD2ST19OzeojYPB/view?usp=sharing SPONSORS › FIDELITY CRYPTO This episode is brought to you by Fidelity Crypto. Learn more at Fidelity.com/crypto Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto. Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of complete loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services, LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC. https://www.fidelity.com/crypto/trading DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

30 thg 4

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1 giờ 3 phút
14 THG 5

Clarity's Make Or Break Moment And Strategy Selling Its Bitcoin

Washington, Wall Street, and Big Tech are all converging on stablecoins at the exact same moment, but the next phase may depend less on ideology and more on politics, payments, and institutional flexibility. This week, we discuss the Clarity Act, stablecoin adoption accelerating through Big Tech, and why Strategy considering Bitcoin sales to help power STRC. We also explore stablecoin yield battles, tax-loss harvesting, tokenized funds, creator payments, and why every crypto breakthrough seems to arrive with drama. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:56 Why Clarity Is Good Enough 08:35 Crypto’s Political Missed Opportunity 12:31 Crypto’s Messaging Problem 16:22 Banks Fight Stablecoin Yield 20:58 Senate Vote And Ethics Fight 27:09 Why Strategy Might Sell Bitcoin 37:18 STRC's Yield Risk 43:20 Bitwise And Superstate Move Onchain 51:08 Big Tech’s Stablecoin Play 56:11 Stablecoin Payments Going Global 59:32 Banking The Unbanked 01:01:55 Final Thoughts FOLLOW THE SHOW › Inflection Point – https://x.com/BWInflection › Marc – https://x.com/marcarjoon › Matt – https://x.com/Matt_Hougan › David – https://x.com/dlawant › Michael – https://x.com/marcryptonio › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Inflection Point is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

14 thg 5

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1 giờ 3 phút

Blockworks connects investors and businesses in onchain capital markets. We give businesses a platform to earn trust and provide investors with the data and information they need to underwrite the asset class.