Podcasts de la chaîne CSIS ‑ Apple Podcasts

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-5 J

How China Might View a Second Trump Administration: A Conversation with Mr. Rick Waters

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Mr. Rick Waters joins us to discuss what the recent U.S. presidential election results mean for China. Mr. Waters shares that China viewed President Trump’s first term as largely divided into two different phases, a more transactional phase in the first half of the administration and a second phase shaped by U.S. anger at China over Covid-19. Mr. Waters also explains that during the recent U.S. presidential election, Chinese scholars did not see large strategic differences between the Trump and Harris campaigns regarding China, and instead saw the differences as mainly tactical. Similarly, he speaks to China’s view that changes in which party controls the U.S. Congress will not cause significant changes in the overall U.S. trajectory on China, as both U.S. parties are increasingly concerned about the challenges and threats China poses. However, he notes Beijing may be concerned that a Republican dominated House and Senate may lead to the end of Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) with China. Mr. Waters also speaks to how China may approach the new Trump administration and assesses that China is waiting to see the first moves from the United States and whether those signal that Trump is willing to bargain with Xi or if the United States will take a greater turn towards unilateral decoupling. Finally, Mr. Waters speaks to possibility of NATO expanding into the Indo-Pacific and the growing ties between Pyongyang and Moscow, and what these changing geopolitics will mean for the future of the US-China relationship. Rick Waters is the managing director of Eurasia Group's China practice. Drawing on his decades of experience in the US foreign service, Rick leads the firm's China expertise and client offerings. His research interests include China's global and regional diplomacy, US-China relations, and China's domestic political economy. Rick joined Eurasia Group after a 27-year career as the US State Department's top China policy official, overseeing the creation of the Office of China Coordination, informally known as the China House, and concurrently serving as deputy assistant secretary of state for China and Taiwan. Rick also held multiple roles at the US embassy in Beijing—including during the period between the accidental US bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade in 1999 and the Hainan Island incident in 2001.

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43 min
-2 J

The Exit Interview

This week Mike hosts Jude for a final goodbye episode to get Jude's synopsis of the China watching fields ability to understand China, what they have rightly predicted, what has been missed, Beijing's politics, and many other topics discussed in previous episodes.

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44 min
-2 J

The Return of Tariff Man

On this week's episode of the Trade Guys, we give our first reactions to the reelection of Donald Trump and speculate about what trade and economic policy will look like in the next administration.

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27 min
-6 J

Predicting AI Policy in the Second Trump Administration

In this episode, we discuss what AI policy might look like under the second Trump administration. We dive into the first Trump administration's achievements (0:50), how the Trump campaign handled AI policy (3:37), and where the new administration might fall on key issue areas like national security (5:59), safety (7:37), export controls (11:27), open-source (14:04), and more.

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28 min
31 OCT.

The Latecomer's Rise

In this episode of Pekingology, Freeman Chair in China Studies Jude Blanchette is joined by Muyang Chen, Assistant Professor of International Development at Peking University’s School of International Studies. They discuss her new book The Latecomer's Rise: Policy Banks and the Globalization of China's Development Finance (Cornell University Press, 2024). Enroll in the Flashpoints and Future of the U.S.-China Relationship course at cs.is/uschinacourse.

31 oct.

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36 min
1 NOV.

Crossing the Rubicon: North Korea Sends Troops to Russia

In this episode, Andrew Schwartz, Victor Cha, and distinguished guests discuss the Kremlin's motivations, the potential impacts on the battlefield in Ukraine, what North Korea is likely to receive in return, how Beijing may perceive this development, and more.

1 nov.

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46 min
-1 J

Mohammad Ali Shabani: Iran After October 7

This week on Babel, Jon Alterman speaks with Mohammad Ali Shabani, editor of Amwaj.media, a London-based news site focusing on Iran, Iraq, and the Arabian Peninsula countries. Together, they discuss Iran’s regional strategy and the choices Iran has after a year of rising regional tensions. Then, Jon continues the conversation with Martin Pimentel and Will Todman to discuss what the new U.S. administration will mean for Iran, its conflict with Israel, and its relations with the United States. Transcript, "Mohammad Ali Shabani: Iran After October 7," CSIS, November 12, 2024.

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44 min
31 OCT.

PRC Leadership Decisionmaking: A Conversation with Mr. Jon Czin

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Mr. Jon Czin joins us to discuss domestic dynamics and leadership decisionmaking within the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC). Mr. Czin discusses what is currently missing in the conversation within the United States on Chinese politics and the fact that many analysts failed to predict the scope and concentration of power that President Xi Jinping would be able to garner. He describes his humanistic approach to studying decisionmaking by Chinese leadership, attempting to look at issues through the eyes of Xi Jinping and the context within China in which Xi makes these decisions. Mr. Czin discusses his impression of Xi Jinping and both how and why he is vastly different from his predecessors, using Xi’s unique past as a primary reason for his style of leadership. He speaks to Xi’s focus on domestic and party issues, such as widespread corruption, and discusses what he sees as the limited connection that exists currently between China’s internal dynamics and its foreign policy. Mr. Czin shares his assessment that China has arrived as a defining force in the geopolitical environment and in 10 to 20 years China will continue to have the capacity and the will to be a formidable rival to the United States. Finally, he discusses what he sees as China’s view of the United State’s internal dynamics and the upcoming presidential election. Mr. Jonathan A. Czin is the Michael H. Armacost Chair in Foreign Policy Studies at Brookings Institution and a fellow in the John L. Thornton China Center. He is a former member of the Senior Analytic Service at CIA, where he was one of the intelligence community’s top China experts. Jon led the intelligence community’s analysis of Chinese politics and policymaking, playing a central role in assessing and briefing senior policymakers on President Xi Jinping, his rise to power, and decisionmaking on an array of key issues and crises. From 2021 till 2023, he was director for China at the National Security Council, where he advised on, staffed, and coordinated White House and inter-agency diplomacy with the People’s Republic of China, including all of President Biden’s interactions with President Xi, and played a leading role in addressing a wide range of global China issues. He also served as advisor for Asia-Pacific security affairs in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, and overseas at a CIA field station in Southeast Asia. He holds a master’s in international relations from Yale University, graduated magna cum laude from Haverford College, and studied at Oxford University. He is proficient in Mandarin Chinese.

31 oct.

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46 min
-6 J

Trump has won a second term. What does his victory mean for U.S.-Africa policy?

Catherine Nzuki is joined by Mvemba Phezo Dizolele (CSIS Africa Director and Senior Fellow) and Cameron Hudson (Africa Program Senior Fellow) for a discussion on what President-Elect Donald Trump's second term would mean for the U.S. approach to Africa, and how African capitals may be strategizing for his second term.

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33 min
4 NOV.

Navigating National Security in the age of AI

Aspen Strategy Group executive director Anja Manuel joins the podcast to discuss issues surrounding AI and national security, and a new series of original papers and op-eds called “Intelligent Defense: Navigating National Security in the Age of AI.” The papers are authored by Aspen Strategy Group members including: Manuel, Mark Esper, General David Petraeus, David Ignatius, Nick Kristof, Steve Bowsher, Joseph S. Nye, Jr., Yoshua Bengio, Senator Chris Coons, Kent Walker, Jennifer Ewbank, Daniel Poneman, Eileen O’Connor, and Graham Allison.

4 nov.

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20 min

CSIS podcasts feature experts & scholars on a range of critical issues surrounding geopolitics, national security, defense, & international affairs topics.