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6 NGÀY TRƯỚC

Paper vs Physical: Inside Oil’s $30 Backwardation Shock with Veteran Trader Adi Imsirovic

Adi Imsirovic, a veteran oil trader and former academic, returns to the podcast to break down the mechanics of the Brent market at a moment of historic disruption. With more than 13 million barrels per day of supply offline and extreme volatility across the curve, Imsirovic explains how oil pricing actually works beneath the surface—distinguishing between physical “dated” Brent and financial futures, and why the recent divergence between the two is not a market failure, but a reflection of timing, scarcity, and panic-driven demand for immediate barrels. The conversation dives into the structure of the Brent complex, including forward markets, CFDs, and the role of exchange-for-physical mechanisms that link paper and physical trading. Imsirovic argues that the record backwardation—at times reaching nearly thirty dollars between prompt and forward barrels—signals not just tightness, but outright panic in physical markets as refiners scramble to secure supply. These dynamics are further amplified by surging premiums for specific crude grades and growing dislocations between refinery margins and input costs. Finally, the discussion turns to what the futures curve is really signaling. While front-end prices reflect immediate scarcity, longer-dated contracts suggest expectations for eventual resolution, with OPEC spare capacity and potential demand destruction looming in the background. Imsirovic emphasizes that price structure—not just flat price—holds the key to understanding oil markets, particularly in an environment shaped as much by geopolitical shocks and policy volatility as by traditional supply-demand fundamentals.

6 ngày trước

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46 phút
15 THG 4

Oil and Gas This Week | April 15 2026 | Ep 400

Sponsored by NavVis – Laser Scanning Solutions & Digital Twin Technology First oil gushes out of North Sea projecthttps://www.offshore-energy.biz/first-oil-gushes-out-of-north-sea-project/ U.S. oil slips below $100 as Trump demands reopening of Strait of Hormuzhttps://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/10/oil-price-wti-brent-saudi-pipeline-attack-middle-east-war.html ‘Weeks, if not months’: Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic won’t normalize anytime soonhttps://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/09/tankers-return-to-hormuz-ceasefire-disruption-to-last-weeks.html Delta CEO says airline will ‘meaningfully’ cut growth plans, sees […]

15 thg 4

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30 phút
3 THG 4

Oil and Gas This Week | April 3 2026 | Ep 399

Sponsored by NavVis – Laser Scanning Solutions & Digital Twin Technology Zombie Tankers Appear in Hormuz as War Fuels Traffic Chaoshttps://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Zombie-Tankers-Appear-in-Hormuz-as-War-Fuels-Traffic-Chaos.html Chinese Oil Giants Rethink Iranian Crude After US Waiverhttps://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Chinese-Oil-Giants-Rethink-Iranian-Crude-After-US-Waiver.html Trump Reports ‘Productive Conversations’ with Iranhttps://www.rigzone.com/news/trump_reports_productive_conversations_with_iran-23-mar-2026-183273-article/ Fire Hits Oil Production at Major Libyan Fieldhttps://www.rigzone.com/news/fire_hits_oil_production_at_major_libyan_field-23-mar-2026-183267-article/ Australia Weighs LNG Windfall Taxhttps://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/australia_weighs_lng_windfall_tax-21-mar-2026-183263-article/ Texas Leads Nation in Oil, Gas […]

3 thg 4

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26 phút
9 THG 4

Record Backwardation: Understanding the Economic Return of USO in the Midst of a Global Supply Loss

John Love, the CEO of USCF Investments, joins the podcast to celebrate the 20th anniversary of the United States Oil Fund (USO), which was the third commodity ETF ever launched. He explains that unlike physical gold funds, USO provides investors with access to the oil market by holding futures contracts, effectively "equitizing" a complex asset class that would otherwise require managing margin calls and rolling positions. A key distinction Love makes is that USO is designed to track the daily economic return of its underlying contracts, not the long-term spot price of oil, meaning its performance is heavily influenced by the "roll yield". The conversation addresses the current record backwardation in WTI, which recently saw prompt spreads hit $15 a barrel, a historic level of physical scarcity driven by the ongoing Hormuz energy crisis. This volatility is compared to the "uncharted territory" of April 2020, when futures prices plummeted to negative $37, forcing the fund to temporarily shift from a front-month strategy to a multi-contract basket to ensure stability. Finally, while there is political pressure for "drill, baby, drill" in the U.S., Love observes that many producers remain cautious due to capital discipline and the inability to lock in high spot prices on the back end of the futures curve.

9 thg 4

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57 phút
2 THG 4

Brutal Barrel Math: The Destruction of 10+ Million Barrels a Day Demand

Karim Fawaz joins the Oil Ground Up podcast to analyze the relentless four-week closure of the Strait of Hormuz and its impact on global energy balances. The conversation explores why futures markets are "grievously underpricing" the current physical loss of 12 to 13 million barrels per day, a shock Fawaz describes as orders of magnitude more severe than any recent crisis. Unlike the managed demand destruction of the pandemic, this unmanaged supply loss forces a chaotic rebalancing that threatens to trigger a "global depressionary contraction" across the global South. The guests delve into the "Unilateral Taco" scenario, analyzing the potential collapse of the Carter Doctrine if President Trump chooses to withdraw U.S. security guarantees from the region. The discussion highlights the emergence of "Fortress North America," noting that the U.S. and Canada are uniquely positioned to weather the crisis through domestic production and flexible refining capacity. Ultimately, Fawaz warns that this is no longer just an intellectual exercise in balancing spreadsheets, but a human catastrophe with life-or-death consequences for millions.

2 thg 4

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58 phút
25 THG 3

Oil and Gas This Week | March 20 2026 | Ep 398

Sponsored by NavVis – Laser Scanning Solutions & Digital Twin Technology Mark and Paige record live from Shell’s HERO (Helping Employees Reach Out) annual cookout in New Orleans, Louisiana. Oil’s surge above $100 highlights inflation risks for global marketshttps://www.worldoil.com/news/2026/3/10/oil-s-surge-above-100-highlights-inflation-risks-for-global-markets/ U.S. Gives Rosneft’s German Refinery Network Open-Ended Sanctions Exemptionhttps://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-Gives-Rosnefts-German-Refinery-Network-Open-Ended-Sanctions-Exemption.html Hormuz Crisis Sends Shockwaves Through Global Marketshttps://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Hormuz-Crisis-Sends-Shockwaves-Through-Global-Markets.html […]

25 thg 3

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25 phút
2 THG 3

Oil and Gas This Week | March 2, 2026 | Ep 397

***BREAKING***LISTEN TO MARK’S COMMENTS ON THE SITUATION IN IRAN Novus Consulting Announces Strategic Acquisition of Magnum ForgeA New Powerhouse Consulting Firm for Oil and Gas | OGGN Special Feature Presidio Petroleum to go Public via Business Combination with EQV VenturesPresidio and EQV Ventures Acquisition Corp. Announce SEC Effectiveness of Registration Statementhttps://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/08/05/3127473/0/en/Presidio-Petroleum-to-go-Public-via-Business-Combination-with-EQV-Ventures-Acquisition-Corp-Creating-a-Differentiated-Dividend-Yield-Driven-C-Corp-Focused-on-the-Optimization-Acqui.html Washington Prepares Broad License […]

2 thg 3

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25 phút
31 THG 3

An End to the Carter Doctrine? - What it would Mean if US Left the War While the Strait is Still Shut?

Gregory Brew of Eurasia Group joins Rory to discuss the potential collapse of the Carter Doctrine following a provocative social media post by President Trump regarding the security of the Persian Gulf. The discussion centers on the 1980 policy that committed the U.S. to using military force to protect the flow of oil, a guarantee that now appears to be evaporating as Trump signals an end to U.S. protection for global energy routes. With the Strait of Hormuz closed for over a month and oil prices soaring toward $200, the episode explores the "Unilateral Taco" scenario where Trump might abruptly end hostilities regardless of whether the waterway is reopened. Brew analyzes Iran's shift from a struggle for survival to a strategic effort to maximize gains and impose tolls, leveraging their functional control over the world's most critical maritime chokepoint. The conversation also breaks down the "hydraulic relationship" between energy prices and political pressure, specifically how Iran uses allies like the Houthis as a lever to keep prices high and force a U.S. de-escalation. Brew examines the precarious position of GCC nations and Israel, who face the risk of their territories becoming permanent "live fire zones" if the U.S. abandons its traditional security role. Finally, the episode questions what a post-war status quo looks like and whether the credibility of U.S. energy guarantees can ever be restored after such a fundamental shift in geopolitical priorities

31 thg 3

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53 phút
2 THG 2

Oil and Gas This Week | January 2026 FFQA

Sponsored by Cognite – https://www.cognite.com/en/ogpodcast HPC Innovation Excellence Award Winners: OGGN YouTube https://www.youtube.com/@OfficialOGGN This Week in Petroleum History https://aoghs.org/this-week Brought to you on OGGN, the largest and most listened to podcast network for the oil and energy industry. Don’t forget to ask a question for our next First Friday Q&A. You ask the questions and we answer […]

2 thg 2

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26 phút
15 THG 4

Appalachian Energy Symposium, April 20-21, 2026, at Marietta College | Ep 336

Sponsored by IFS – Purpose-built industrial AI This episode features Host, Elena Melchert, Don Conkle, Trustee, Marietta College Board of Directors, and Dr. Ben Stuart, Dean, Center for Earth, Energy, and the Environment, discussing the upcoming energy symposium at Marietta College, featuring keynote presentation by Dr. Scott Tinker, panel focusing on energy diversity, speaker on […]

15 thg 4

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27 phút

Oil and Gas This Week is the show for busy oil pros who want to quickly keep their finger on the pulse of the industry.

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KINH DOANH

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Oil and Gas Global Network (OGGN) is the world's largest network of oil and gas podcasts. A host of more than 15 podcasts helps bring out the stories of the companies and people behind the Energy Industry. Since 2015, OGGN has become a platform for entrepreneurs and trailblazers to voice their opinions and share their stories. Through honest reporting and journalistic integrity, OGGN envisions to transform the world’s view of the Oil and Gas Industry. OGGN has earned appreciation and recognition from leading organizations in the industry and is considered a trendsetter for some of the most fun and meaningful conversations.

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Oil & Gas Global Network

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Paper vs Physical: Inside Oil’s $30 Backwardation Shock with Veteran Trader Adi Imsirovic

Oil and Gas This Week | April 15 2026 | Ep 400

Oil and Gas This Week | April 3 2026 | Ep 399

Record Backwardation: Understanding the Economic Return of USO in the Midst of a Global Supply Loss

Brutal Barrel Math: The Destruction of 10+ Million Barrels a Day Demand

Oil and Gas This Week | March 20 2026 | Ep 398

Oil and Gas This Week | March 2, 2026 | Ep 397

An End to the Carter Doctrine? - What it would Mean if US Left the War While the Strait is Still Shut?

Oil and Gas This Week | January 2026 FFQA

Appalachian Energy Symposium, April 20-21, 2026, at Marietta College | Ep 336

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