Ankara has voiced alarm at Cyprus’s announcement that France will deploy soldiers on the Mediterranean island. The move has fuelled Turkish fears of encirclement, as Cyprus and Greece continue to deepen defence ties with Turkey’s rival Israel. Turkish officials have strongly criticised France’s plan to send soldiers to Cyprus, warning it could escalate tensions. Cyprus has remained divided since 1974, when Turkey invaded following a coup backed by Greece. The north is governed by a Turkish Cypriot administration recognised only by Turkey. Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides stated that the French deployment is part of a Status of Forces Agreement to be signed in June. France increased its military support, sending forces to the area after Iranian missiles targeted the island. But Ankara sees the move as part of a growing rivalry with Paris. “Turkey and France are geopolitical rivals. They have been competing with each other in Africa and the eastern Mediterranean,” explains international relations professor Serhat Guvenc of Istanbul’s Kadir Has University. “France is inclined to view Turkey as a potential revisionist power, pursuing hegemonic aspirations in the region,” he said, adding that Cyprus is a small island and a concentration of military power without unified command could lead to unwanted escalation. Cyprus’s EU presidency: seeking resilience in a new world order Christodoulides downplayed Turkish concerns, stating that any French deployment would serve “humanitarian purposes". However, former Cypriot ambassador Euripides Evriviades argues that Turkey’s military presence is the primary security threat in Cyprus. “These things are happening because we feel very insecure – it is 40,000 Turkish troops on the island in an aggressive posture,” said Evriviades. “The insecurity on the island stems directly from the continued occupation and violations of human rights that come with any occupation." French backing Macron’s support for Cyprus echoes his strong backing of Greece. During a recent visit to Athens, he said there was “no room for doubt” about France’s military support for Greece against any threats, a statement widely interpreted as being aimed at Turkey. France’s increased support for Greece and Cyprus coincides with Athens and Nicosia strengthening security ties with Israel. Cyprus urges EU to agree plan for defence of member states ahead of summit “The Cyprus problem is no longer the Cyprus problem per se, but has become a part of the wider geopolitical rivalries in the region,” said Guvenc. Turkish-Israeli relations remain tense, with both sides viewing each other as a threat. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan warned that the alignment of Cyprus, Israel and Greece is an attempt to “encircle Turkey". Ankara fears that such a military alliance could be used to advance Greek and Cypriot claims over the Aegean and Mediterranean Seas, where Turkey and Greece have multiple territorial disputes. “If they combine their military and naval capabilities, they may attempt to deny Turkey access to the Eastern Mediterranean. So this is a danger,” said Guvenc. Cycle of distrust The upcoming Washington summit involving Greece, Cyprus and Israel is likely to intensify Ankara’s concerns about isolation. Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, head of the German Marshall Fund office in Ankara, warns that the region is caught in a growing cycle of distrust, and any new military deployment to Cyprus is likely to prompt a reciprocal response. “Turkey could make new deployments, drones, even fighter jets,” he said. Turkey steps up as Europe's indispensable and uncomfortable defence partner Unluhisarcikli also cautions that renewed tensions over Cyprus are a dangerous distraction from the ongoing Russian threat. “At a time when the transatlantic community at large is facing much larger external threats, NATO allies should not be posturing against each other, and that's what we are seeing. This is unacceptable." “The risk of a real confrontation is very limited, but it will lead both sides to double down on their current positions,” he added. Turkey, which has the second-largest army in NATO, is viewed by some in the European Union as a potential answer to concerns about the United States’ commitment to Europe's defence amid the ongoing Russian threat. However, renewed tensions over Cyprus may undermine these expectations.
