064 | 美国政府停摆：民主党与共和党的各自算盘

【聊了什么】

美国联邦政府时隔七年再度关门，这不仅是预算之争，更是两党围绕奥巴马医改补贴和行政权力的政治赌博。民主党看似手握医保这一民生王牌，民调也明显占有，为何攻势疲软？特朗普政府在《2025计划》的操盘手Russell Vought的推动下试图借机进一步削弱联邦政府，是否能成功？这场闹剧会像以往一样无疾而终？

本期节目录制于2025年10月4日。

播客文字稿（付费会员专享）：https://theamericanroulette.com/2025-government-shutdown-transcript

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合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com

【时间轴】

01:00 时隔7年，美国联邦政府再次停摆

02:18 什么是政府关门？“必要”和“非必要”服务如何划分？

05:26 从克林顿、奥巴马到特朗普时期的政府关门

09:13 提出政治要求的一方通常会失败

12:16 本次关门核心争议

13:28 两党各自的政治算盘：为何双方都觉得关门对自己有利？

17:21 - 关门对联邦雇员和公共服务的影响

19:00 预算管理局（OMB）主任Russell Vought想借机削减联邦政府

21:52 奥巴马医改“补贴悬崖”与拜登时期加强版补贴到期问题

30:23 民主党的议题选择：从弱势的移民问题转向强势的医保问题

39:39 民主党攻势为何“雷声大雨点小”？党内分歧与领导层顾虑

42:03 共和党的反击策略：将医保问题与非法移民捆绑

53:20 关门对弗吉尼亚和新泽西州长选举的潜在影响

58:04 为何共和党不愿为预算案废除“冗长辩论”？

【我们是谁】

美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。

我们的主播和嘉宾：

Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者

王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子

小华：媒体人

【 What We Talked About】

The U.S. federal government has shut down again after seven years—this is not merely a budget dispute, but a political gamble between the two parties over Affordable Care Act subsidies and executive power. The Democrats seemingly hold the trump card of healthcare, a vital public concern, and polls are clearly in their favor, so why is their offensive so weak? The Trump administration, driven by Russell Vought, the mastermind behind Project 2025, is attempting to use this opportunity to further weaken the federal government—will they succeed? Will this spectacle fizzle out like previous shutdowns?

This episode was recorded on October 4, 2025.

Podcast Transcript (Paid Subscribers Only): https://theamericanroulette.com/2025-government-shutdown-transcript

【Support Us】

If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following:

Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/

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Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com

【Timeline】

01:00 After 7 years, the U.S. federal government shuts down again

02:18 What is a government shutdown? How are "essential" and "non-essential" services defined?

05:26 Government shutdowns from the Clinton, Obama, and Trump eras

09:13 The side making political demands typically loses

12:16 Core disputes in this shutdown

13:28 Each party's political calculus: Why do both sides think the shutdown benefits them?

17:21 Impact of the shutdown on federal employees and public services

19:00 OMB Director Russell Vought seeks to use this opportunity to downsize the federal government

21:52 The Affordable Care Act "subsidy cliff" and the expiration of enhanced Biden-era subsidies

30:23 Democrats' issue selection: Shifting from the weak immigration issue to the strong healthcare issue

39:39 Why is the Democrats' offensive "all bark and no bite"? Internal divisions and leadership concerns

42:03 Republican counterattack strategy: Tying healthcare to illegal immigration

53:20 Potential impact of the shutdown on Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections

58:04 Why Republicans are unwilling to eliminate the filibuster for the budget bill

【Who We Are】

The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics.

Our Hosts and Guests:

Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history

王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information

小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer

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