Diplomacy used to be about treaties and territory – now it seems it's more about data, algorithms, and the companies that control them. At Donald Trump’s inauguration, Silicon Valley’s most powerful figures stood steps away, a sign that Big Tech now sits at the centre of global power. Tech companies pervade everyday life and wield power once reserved for nation states. Are the people in charge of global power those elected to office or those appointed to positions within those companies? To explore how AI is reshaping diplomacy, from negotiation and representation to influence operations and disinformation, hosts Autria Godfrey, Stephen Horn, and Laila Rizvi interview Dr. Jennifer Cassidy, AI & Diplomacy, University of Oxford, about: How AI is transforming diplomacy’s core functionsWhy Big Tech now rivals governments in geopolitical influenceThe rise of “digital sovereigns” and private powerWhen former political leaders move into tech, where accountability goesDemocratic versus authoritarian uses of AIWhy global AI governance is still largely non-bindingFor Dr. Cassidy, diplomacy rests on three, timeless pillars: communication, representation, and negotiation. AI “is not demolishing these pillars, but quietly rewiring the architecture that holds them together… Predictive analysis now allows ministries to read the global mood” almost in real-time. The United Nations and the World Bank use AI models that monitor food prices, rainfall patterns, and social media data to anticipate instability “up to 6 weeks before that instability might actually break out.” NATO employs machine learning to map Russian disinformation. “What we’re seeing here is the move from reactive diplomacy… to anticipatory diplomacy.” One of the most pressing questions is whose AI is being used to create “sovereign diplomatic AI systems.” France and the EU train their AI on Mistral, a French company. US AI models are OpenAI's and Anthropic's. Microsoft's Azure Cloud hosts data for NATO and national governments. These companies have become “digital sovereigns” – private actors who control the three levers of power that were once defined by the state: information, infrastructure and interpretation. Former politicians like Nick Clegg (Meta) and Rishi Sunak (Microsoft) represent a “circuit of influence” where “experience, access, and authority are just flowing continuously between capitals and campuses in Silicon Valley.” While “democracies do need experienced voices helping to steer the tech transition,” we must ensure that “when the expertise moves, accountability moves with it.” What about bad actors using AI? Jennifer says we’ve seen this in elections in the US and the world. In China, “predictive policing algorithms are tracking not just where crime might occur, but who might commit it… Authoritarian regimes are combining facial recognition, travel data, and digital behaviour into vast surveillance scores.” It is “digital authoritarianism in its most refined form… controlled by prediction, rather than force.” Dr. Cassidy concludes, “We have a very, very, very long way to go regarding the governance and structure of, and frameworks for AI… a difficult task… that has to be done.” What’s your take? Share your thoughts in the comments and subscribe for more on AI, geopolitics and global power. CHAPTERS 00:00 Tech, Trump and the New Global Power Game 01:26 Do Tech Giants Now Run Foreign Policy? 04:00 How AI Is Reshaping Diplomacy? 06:37 Why Nations Are Building Their Own AI Models 09:18 Have Big Tech Companies Become Sovereigns? 12:33 From Prime Minister to Big Tech: The Revolving Door 16:46 AI Power Politics Beyond the West 19:43 AI for Good or Digital Authoritarianism? 22:09 Who Sets the Rules for AI? 24:48 Closing Thoughts with Dr. Jennifer Cassidy 25:05 Debrief: Authoritarian Drift and Regulation Fights 27:13 AI Ministers, Echo Chambers and What Comes Next
