LessWrong posts by zvi

zvi
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Audio narrations of LessWrong posts by zvi

  1. 2일 전

    “2025 State of AI Report and Predictions” by Zvi

    The 2025 State of AI Report is out, with lots of fun slides and a full video presentation. They’ve been consistently solid, providing a kind of outside general view. I’m skipping over stuff my regular readers already know that doesn’t bear repeating. Qwen The Fine Tune King For Now Nathan Benaich: Once a “Llama rip-off,” @Alibaba_Qwen now powers 40% of all new fine-tunes on @huggingface. China's open-weights ecosystem has overtaken Meta's, with Llama riding off into the sunset…for now. I highlight this because the ‘for now’ is important to understand, and to note that it's Qwen not DeepSeek. As in, models come and models go, and especially in the open model world people will switch on you on a dime. Stop worrying about lock-ins and mystical ‘tech stacks.’ Rise Of The Machines Robots now reason too. “Chain-of-Action” planning brings structured thought to the [...] --- Outline: (00:39) Qwen The Fine Tune King For Now (01:19) Rise Of The Machines (01:40) Model Context Protocol Wins Out (02:06) Benchmarks Are Increasingly Not So Useful (02:56) The DeepSeek Moment Was An Overreaction (03:40) Capitalism Is Hard To Pin Down (04:30) The Odds Are Against Us And The Situation Is Grim (06:35) They Grade Last Year's Predictions (09:35) Their Predictions for 2026 --- First published: October 10th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AvKjYYYHC93JzuFCM/2025-state-of-ai-report-and-predictions --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

    20분

  2. 3일 전

    “AI #137: An OpenAI App For That” by Zvi

    OpenAI is making deals and shipping products. They locked in their $500 billion valuation and then got 10% of AMD in exchange for buying a ton of chips. They gave us the ability to ‘chat with apps’ inside of ChatGPT. They walked back their insane Sora copyright and account deletion policies and are buying $50 million in marketing. They’ve really got a lot going on right now. Of course, everyone else also has a lot going on right now. It's AI. I spent the last weekend at a great AI conference at Lighthaven called The Curve. The other big news that came out this morning is that China is asserting sweeping extraterritorial control over rare earth metals. This is likely China's biggest card short of full trade war or worse, and it is being played in a hugely escalatory way that America obviously can’t accept. Presumably this [...] --- Outline: (01:33) Language Models Offer Mundane Utility (03:39) Language Models Don't Offer Mundane Utility (05:13) Huh, Upgrades (08:21) Chat With Apps (11:32) On Your Marks (12:51) Choose Your Fighter (13:47) Fun With Media Generation (24:03) Deepfaketown and Botpocalypse Soon (27:46) You Drive Me Crazy (31:33) They Took Our Jobs (34:35) The Art of the Jailbreak (34:55) Get Involved (38:31) Introducing (42:18) In Other AI News (43:38) Get To Work (45:45) Show Me the Money (50:24) Quiet Speculations (52:15) The Quest for Sane Regulations (01:02:31) Chip City (01:06:53) The Race to Maximize Rope Market Share (01:08:49) The Week in Audio (01:09:28) Rhetorical Innovation (01:10:13) Paranoia Paranoia Everybody's Coming To Test Me (01:13:10) Aligning a Smarter Than Human Intelligence is Difficult (01:14:12) Free Petri Dish (01:15:45) Unhobbling The Unhobbling Department (01:17:46) Serious People Are Worried About Synthetic Bio Risks (01:19:09) Messages From Janusworld (01:28:54) People Are Worried About AI Killing Everyone (01:32:14) Other People Are Excited About AI Killing Everyone (01:40:48) So You've Decided To Become Evil (01:45:25) The Lighter Side --- First published: October 9th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YfvqLidW5BGpiFrNF/ai-137-an-openai-app-for-that --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

    1시간 51분

  3. 4일 전

    “NEPA, Permitting and Energy Roundup #2” by Zvi

    It's been about a year since the last one of these. Given the long cycle, I have done my best to check for changes but things may have changed on any given topic by the time you read this. The NEPA Problem NEPA is a constant thorn in the side of anyone attempting to do anything. A certain kind of person responds with: “Good.” That kind of person does not want humans to do physical things in the world. They like the world as it is, or as it used to be. They do not want humans messing with it further. They often also think humans are bad, and should stop existing entirely. Or believe humans deserve to suffer or do penance. Or do not trust people to make good decisions and safeguard what matters. To them [...] --- Outline: (00:21) The NEPA Problem (01:53) The Full NEPA Solution (02:43) The Other Full NEPA Solution (03:59) Meanwhile (06:06) Yay Nuclear Power (14:22) Yay Solar and Wind Power (18:11) Yay Grid Storage (18:42) Yay Transmission Lines (19:40) American Energy is Cheap (20:48) Geoengineering (22:29) NEPA Standard Procedure is a Doom Loop (25:34) Categorical Exemptions (26:13) Teachers Against Transportation (32:41) Also CEQA (36:36) It Can Always Be Worse (39:35) How We Got Into This Mess (41:00) Categorical Exclusions (47:23) A Green Bargain (54:18) Costs Versus Benefits (55:27) A Call for Proposals (56:18) The Men of Two Studies (59:55) A Modest Proposal --- First published: October 8th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HqAJyxhdJcEfhH2nW/nepa-permitting-and-energy-roundup-2 --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

    1시간 2분

  4. 5일 전

    “Bending The Curve” by Zvi

    The odds are against you and the situation is grim. Your scrappy band are the only ones facing down a growing wave of powerful inhuman entities with alien minds and mysterious goals. The government is denying that anything could possibly be happening and actively working to shut down the few people trying things that might help. Your thoughts, no matter what you think could not harm you, inevitably choose the form of the destructor. You knew it was going to get bad, but this is so much worse. You have an idea. You’ll cross the streams. Because there is a very small chance that you will survive. You’re in love with this plan. You’re excited to be a part of it. Welcome to the always excellent Lighthaven venue for The Curve, Season 2, a conference I had the pleasure to attend this past weekend. Where [...] --- Outline: (02:53) Overall Impressions (03:36) The Inside View (08:16) Track Trouble (15:42) Let's Talk (15:45) Jagged Alliance (18:39) More Teachers' Dirty Looks (21:16) The View Inside The White House (22:33) Assume The Future AIs Be Scheming (23:29) Interlude (23:53) Eyes On The Mission (24:44) Putting The Code Into Practice (25:25) Missing It (25:54) Clark Talks About The Frontier (27:04) Other Perspectives (27:08) Deepfates (32:13) Anton (32:50) Jack Clark (33:43) Roon (34:43) Nathan Lambert (37:49) The Food --- First published: October 7th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/A9fxfCfEAoouJshhZ/bending-the-curve --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

    40분

  5. 6일 전

    “Medical Roundup #5” by Zvi

    Some amazing things are going on, not all of which involve mRNA, although please please those of you with the ability to do so, do your part to ensure that stays funded, either via investment or grants. As for mRNA, please do what you can to help save it, so we can keep getting more headlines like ‘a new cancer vaccine just wiped out tumors’ even if it is sufficiently early that the sentence this time inevitably concludes ‘IN MICE.’ Heart Disease Wait, what, you’re saying we might soon ‘mostly defeat’ heart disease? Cremieux: It's hard to oversell how big a discovery this is. Heart disease is America's #1 cause of death. With a combination of two drugs administered once every six months, it might be mostly defeated. Just think about that how big this is! You will know your great-grandkids! [...] --- Outline: (00:34) Heart Disease (02:16) Alcohol (05:21) Legal Reforms (06:24) Embryo Selection and Gene Editing (15:02) GLP-1s Work (18:57) There Is No Catch Other Than Availability And Price (22:54) The Societal Impact of GLP-1s (25:40) I'm Not a Yo-Yo (26:24) Back Problems Are An Underrated Reason To Lose Weight (27:18) No One Knows Much About Nutrition (29:23) Ketogenic Diets Can Go Very Wrong (36:01) Weight Loss The Hard Way (36:36) We Ask Far Too Much Of Satiety (39:28) Supplements (41:07) A Cure For Some Depression (42:16) Assisted Suicide (43:17) Bioethics Delenda Est (45:05) Ignorance Can Be Bliss (45:48) Living Forever In Your Apartment (46:51) In Other Health News --- First published: October 6th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DqK7TaH2drLxGiKcb/medical-roundup-5 --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

    50분

  6. 10월 3일

    “Sora and The Big Bright Screen Slop Machine” by Zvi

    OpenAI gave us two very different Sora releases. Here is the official announcement. The part where they gave us a new and improved video generator? Great, love it. The part where they gave us a new social network dedicated purely to short form AI videos? Not great, Bob. Don’t be evil. OpenAI is claiming they are making their social network with an endless scroll of 10-second AI videos the Actively Good, pro-human version of The Big Bright Screen Slop Machine, that helps you achieve your goals and can be easily customized and favors connection and so on. I am deeply skeptical. They also took a bold copyright stance, with that stance being, well, not quite ‘f*** you,’ but kind of close? You are welcome to start flagging individual videos. Or you can complain to them more generally about your characters and they say they can [...] --- Outline: (01:42) Act 1: Sora 2, The Producer of Ten Second Videos (03:08) Big Talk (06:00) Failures of Physics (06:45) Fun With Media Generation (09:19) Act 2: Copyright Confrontation (09:25) Imitation Learning (12:50) OpenAI In Copyright Infringement (14:25) OpenAI Gives Copyright Holders The Finger (22:36) State Of The Copyright Game (23:44) Not Safe For Pliny (25:46) Act 3: The Big Bright Screen Slop Machine (25:58) The Vibes Are Off (27:30) I Have An Idea, Let's Moral Panic (33:08) OpenAI's Own Live Look At Their New App (34:11) When Everyone Is Creative No One Will Be (36:51) Nobody Wants This (39:25) Okay Maybe Somebody Wants This? (40:22) Sora Sora What's It Good For? (42:31) The Vibes Are Even Worse (43:35) No I Mean How Is It Good For OpenAI? (46:15) Don't Worry It's The Good Version (49:03) Optimize For Long Term User Satisfaction (50:59) Encourage Users To Control Their Feed (56:20) Prioritize Creation (57:09) Help Users Achieve Their Long Term Goals (58:10) Prioritize Connection (58:52) Alignment Test (59:27) One Strike (01:00:50) Don't Be Evil (01:05:29) No Escape --- First published: October 3rd, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DKXa42nu2SDnWWmeW/sora-and-the-big-bright-screen-slop-machine --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

    1시간 7분

  7. 10월 2일

    “AI #136: A Song and Dance” by Zvi

    The big headline this week was the song, which was the release of Claude Sonnet 4.5. I covered this in two parts, first the System Card and Alignment, and then a second post on capabilities. It is a very good model, likely the current best model for most coding tasks, most agentic and computer use tasks, and quick or back-and-forth chat conversations. GPT-5 still has a role to play as well. There was also the dance, also known as Sora, both the new and improved 10-second AI video generator Sora and also the new OpenAI social network Sora. I will be covering that tomorrow. The video generator itself seems amazingly great. The social network sounds like a dystopian nightmare and I like to think Nobody Wants This, although I do not yet have access nor am I a typical customer of such products. The copyright decisions being [...] --- Outline: (02:52) Language Models Offer Mundane Utility (04:24) Language Models Don't Offer Mundane Utility (06:53) Huh, Upgrades (09:46) On Your Marks (18:02) Choose Your Fighter (22:36) Copyright Confrontation (25:35) Fun With Media Generation (27:02) Deepfaketown and Botpocalypse Soon (34:06) You Drive Me Crazy (35:12) Parental Controls (35:59) They Took Our Jobs (42:23) The Art of the Jailbreak (43:25) Introducing (49:16) In Other AI News (50:49) Show Me the Money (55:19) Quiet Speculations (01:03:15) The Quest for Sane Regulations (01:05:11) Chip City (01:07:15) The Week in Audio (01:07:55) If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies (01:12:55) Rhetorical Innovation (01:16:36) Messages From Janusworld (01:22:54) Aligning a Smarter Than Human Intelligence is Difficult (01:23:40) Other People Are Not As Worried About AI Killing Everyone (01:26:18) The Lighter Side --- First published: October 2nd, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QZE2Hztfvk7xKrzBk/ai-136-a-song-and-dance --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

    1시간 27분

  8. 10월 1일

    “Claude Sonnet 4.5 Is A Very Good Model” by Zvi

    A few weeks ago, Anthropic announced Claude Opus 4.1 and promised larger announcements within a few weeks. Claude Sonnet 4.5 is the larger announcement. Yesterday I covered the model card and related alignment concerns. Today's post covers the capabilities side. We don’t currently have a new Opus, but Mike Krieger confirmed one is being worked on for release later this year. For Opus 4.5, my request is to give us a second version that gets minimal or no RL, isn’t great at coding, doesn’t use tools well except web search, doesn’t work as an agent or for computer use and so on, and if you ask it for those things it suggests you hand your task off to its technical friend or does so on your behalf. I do my best to include all substantive reactions I’ve seen, positive and negative, because right after model [...] --- Outline: (01:14) Big Talk (02:53) The Big Takeaways (04:55) On Your Marks (09:25) Huh, Upgrades (13:08) The System Prompt (20:31) Positive Reactions Curated By Anthropic (23:13) Other Systematic Positive Reactions (27:24) Anecdotal Positive Reactions (32:02) Anecdotal Negative Reactions (40:57) Claude Enters Its Non-Sycophantic Era (42:28) So Emotional (48:25) Early Days --- First published: October 1st, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/spQh5JfWXqTE5x5Wi/claude-sonnet-4-5-is-a-very-good-model --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

    49분
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