AI Explained

AI Explained
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Covering the biggest news of the century - the arrival of smarter-than-human AI. The author of Simple Bench, exposing the remaining human-LLM reasoning gap. Solo Developer of LM Council: https://lmcouncil.ai - Code - INSIDER15Join me at AI Insiders, with exclusive videos and a 1000+ network of AI enthusiasts and professionals: https://www.patreon.com/AIExplainedLinks:AI Insiders: Code - INSIDER15: https://www.patreon.com/AIExplainedMy AI Council App: https://lmcouncil.aiSimple Bench: https://simple-bench.com/Podcast (New!): https://aiexplainedopodcast.buzzsprout.com/Newsletter: https://signaltonoise.beehiiv.com/X: https://twitter.com/AIExplainedYT

  1. 1h ago

    Claude AI Co-founder Publishes 4 Big Claims about Near Future: Breakdown

    Anthropic's CEO, who has consistently predicted transformative AI will arrive before 2030, recently published a nearly 20,000-word essay outlining his vision of where AI is heading. The video gives you the highlights. The essay argues that scaling and recursion will advance AI from coding automation to full engineering automation, while warning of economic displacement within 1-2 years and China's trajectory toward AI-enabled totalitarianism. Additionally, Dario Amodei predicts that AI models will increasingly be understood as collections of distinct personas rather than monolithic systems.80,000 Hours: https://80000hours.org/aiexplained https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B54EQiuO1UUCheck out my fast-growing (!) app, free to use, and code INSIDER15 for Pro: https://lmcouncil.aiAI Insiders ($9!): https://www.patreon.com/AIExplainedChapters:00:00 - Introduction01:10 - Scaling to software engineers06:11 - Permanent Underclass10:18 - Totalitarian Nightmares16:38 - Collection of PersonasEssay: https://www.darioamodei.com/essay/the-adolescence-of-technologyPhysics Prediction: https://www.quantamagazine.org/is-particle-physics-dead-dying-or-just-hard-20260126/Axios: https://www.axios.com/2025/05/28/ai-jobs-white-collar-unemployment-anthropicWorld GDP: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?end=2024&start=1961&view=chartDemis Hassabis Counter: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q6fq4_uP7aMKarpathy 80%: https://x.com/karpathy/status/2015883857489522876Machines of Loving Grace: https://www.darioamodei.com/essay/machines-of-loving-graceAnthropic LessWrong: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5aKRshJzhojqfbRyo/unless-its-governance-changes-anthropic-is-untrustworthy#1__In_private__Dario_frequently_said_he_won_t_push_the_frontier_of_AI_capabilities__later__Anthropic_pushed_the_frontierOriginal Constitution: https://www.anthropic.com/news/claudes-constitutionNew Constitution: https://www.anthropic.com/constitutionKimi K2.5: https://x.com/Kimi_Moonshot/status/2016024049869324599Societies of Thought, Google DeepMind Paper: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2601.10825https://lmcouncil.ai/benchmarkshttps://www.patreon.com/posts/our-new-age-of-133960279Non-hype Newsletter: https://signaltonoise.beehiiv.com/Podcast: https://aiexplainedopodcast.buzzsprout.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    Claude AI Co-founder Publishes 4 Big Claims about Near Future: Breakdown

  2. 2h ago

    o3-mini and the “AI War”

    o3-mini is here, and yes, I’ve read the paper in full - 2 hours after release, and even the post-launch Reddit AMA. Some epic details like a FrontierMath score that made me double-take, a likely new Cursor favorite, bio risk expertise and a cost-comparison with Deepseek R1., But does it perform on basic reasoning - let’s find out. Plus, arguably the bigger story - the increasingly frenetic rhetoric coming out of the West - and Dario Amodei and Alexandr Wang (CEOs of Anthropic and Scale AI respectively) in particular. The last thing we need is an “AI War”.https://wandb.me/simple-bench(Colab): https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1AVijcPnEkl8Gy_754XbRdG5m7Q5-9slg?usp=sharingAI Insiders ($9!): https://www.patreon.com/AIExplainedChapters: 00:00 - Introduction00:45 - o3 mini05:11 - First impressions vs Deepseek R107:22 - 10x Scale, o3-mini System Card, Amodei Essay, bitcoin wallets…12:40 - Simple Competition Finale13:03 - Clips and Final Thoughts on the “AI War”O3-mini: https://openai.com/index/openai-o3-mini/Paper: https://cdn.openai.com/o3-mini-system-card.pdfAmodei Essay: https://darioamodei.com/on-deepseek-and-export-controls?s=09FrontierMath wild stat:https://arxiv.org/pdf/2411.04872Sam Altman Channels Napoleon: https://x.com/sama/status/1883185690508488934Altman ‘pulls up releases’: https://x.com/sama/status/1884066337103962416“AI War” by Wang: https://scale.com/blog/win-the-ai-warAnthropic Original Views on Capabilities: https://www.anthropic.com/news/core-views-on-ai-safetyAI Insider Cost Comparison:https://x.com/arankomatsuzaki/status/1884676245922934788Deepseek R1 Paper: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2501.12948R1, o3-mini Price Comparison: https://techcrunch.com/2025/01/31/openai-launches-o3-mini-its-latest-reasoning-model/Semianalysis on $1.3M deepseek salaries, and them falling behind as ‘the time gap to match US capabilities increases’: https://semianalysis.com/2025/01/31/deepseek-debates/OpenAI Valuation: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-30/openai-in-talks-to-raise-funding-at-340-billion-value-wsj-says?srnd=phx-aiWang Clip: https://x.com/tsarnick/status/1867700453494206883Amodei Clip: https://x.com/ai_ctrl/status/1884951111771001188https://simple-bench.com/AI Insiders ($9!): https://www.patreon.com/AIExplainedNon-hype Newsletter: https://signaltonoise.beehiiv.com/Podcast: https://aiexplainedopodcast.buzzsprout.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    o3-mini and the “AI War”

  3. 3h ago

    Gemini 3.1 Pro and the Downfall of Benchmarks: Welcome to the Vibe Era of AI

    Do we have a new best AI model, or do we have the downfall of benchmarks in general, as a way of capturing machine intelligence? Full breakdown of Gemini 3.1 Pro, guest-starring the new Sonnet 4.6, plus analysis from 7 papers/posts that will give you much needed context. Oh, and a new record on Simple Bench!https://epoch.ai/ai-explained-datacentersCheck out my fast-growing (!) app, free to use, and code INSIDER15 for Pro: https://lmcouncil.aiAI Insiders ($9!): https://www.patreon.com/AIExplainedChapters:00:00 - Introduction00:30 - Post-training Dominance04:00 - ARC-AGI 2 Caveat05:54 - Simple Bench Record08:22 - Hallucination Caveat10:05 - Model Card11:12 - Exponential Coming12:20 - Amodei on Generalizing15:10 - One True Benchmark?17:02 - Other Metrics…Gemini 3.1 Model Card: https://storage.googleapis.com/deepmind-media/Model-Cards/Gemini-3-1-Pro-Model-Card.pdfRelease: https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/models-and-research/gemini-models/gemini-3-1-pro/Where are Agents deployed?: https://www.anthropic.com/research/measuring-agent-autonomyNewsletter Post: https://signaltonoise.beehiiv.com/p/4-ai-numbers-that-surprised-me-this-weekHallucination AA: https://artificialanalysis.ai/evaluations/omniscienceMelanie Mitchell: https://x.com/MelMitchell1/status/2022738363548340526ARC-AGI-2: https://x.com/arcprize/status/2024522812728496470/photo/1Chollet on Agentic Coding and ML: https://x.com/fchollet/status/2024519439140737442METR Caveat: https://metr.org/notes/2026-01-22-time-horizon-limitations/Talaas Fast: https://chatjimmy.ai/Amodei Interview Continual learning: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/dario-amodei-2?open=false#%C2%A7002942-is-continual-learning-necessary-how-will-it-be-solvedMetaculus FutureEval: https://www.metaculus.com/futureeval/Next Vid to Watch: https://www.patreon.com/posts/what-you-need-to-150647292Non-hype Newsletter: https://signaltonoise.beehiiv.com/Podcast: https://aiexplainedopodcast.buzzsprout.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    Gemini 3.1 Pro and the Downfall of Benchmarks: Welcome to the Vibe Era of AI

  4. 4h ago

    AI Los Alamos? + New Realistic AI Avatars

    From an AI Los Alamos to the first quasi-realistic AI avatar & and from spies at AGI labs to 'AI consciousness' in 2 years, this was a week of underrated revelations and discussions of AI consciousness, regret over ChatGPT’s precipitous release, and more.We’ll see snippets of the debate with George Hotz and Connor Leahy, touching on the three borderline unanswerable questions for our future, and cover an insight from Jan Leike, head of alignment at OpenAI, who did a 3 hour interview with 80,000 hours.I’ll also showcase Palantir’s plans for an AI arms race, and how GPT 5 and Gemini will be recruited for cyber defence. https://www.patreon.com/AIExplainedAI Avatar from HeyGen: https://twitter.com/joshua_xu_/status/1689019874667024384Waitlist: https://am8evw00qys.typeform.com/to/wauwjUYP?typeform-source=t.coDario Amodei Interview on Dwarkesh Patel Lunar Society Podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nlkk3glap_UWired Anthropic Piece: https://www.wired.co.uk/article/the-making-of-the-atomic-bomb-artificial-intelligenceWhite House Announcement: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/08/09/biden-harris-administration-launches-artificial-intelligence-cyber-challenge-to-protect-americas-critical-software/?ref=futuretools.ioSam Altman Bankless Interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4HFyXYvMwFcSupermarket Chlorine Gas: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/10/pak-n-save-savey-meal-bot-ai-app-malfunction-recipes?Palantir CEO NYT: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/25/opinion/karp-palantir-artificial-intelligence.htmlChristiano Argument Against Yudkowsky’s List of Lethalities: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CoZhXrhpQxpy9xw9y/where-i-agree-and-disagree-with-eliezerGeorge Hotz, Connor Leahy Debate, Machine Learning Street Talk: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iFUmWho7fBEHogarth Island Article: https://www.ft.com/content/03895dc4-a3b7-481e-95cc-336a524f2ac2Los Alamos: https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/2023/07/19/christopher-nolan-oppenheimer-race/SuperAlignment: https://openai.com/blog/introducing-superalignmentJan Leike Interview, 80,000 Hours: https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/jan-leike-superalignment/A Bomb Footage HQ: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wki4hg9Om-khttps://www.patreon.com/AIExplained Non-Hype, Free Newsletter: https://signaltonoise.beehiiv.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    AI Los Alamos? + New Realistic AI Avatars

  5. 5h ago

    'Show Your Working': ChatGPT Performance Doubled w/ Process Rewards (+Synthetic Data Event Horizon)

    I have not only read the Let's Verify step by Step paper released less than 24 hours ago, I have combed the release notes and appendix, read most of the linked papers and done my own tests. It's true, performance is massively boosted, and not just for mathematics but science and other domains too. I'll show you comparisons with GPT 3 and PaLM 2, and demonstrate that new records are coming soon.I will also cover the 'synthetic data event horizon' and what might have gone into GPT 4's training. I'll show you how PRM works vs ORM, and why finetuning is still relevant. Plus I'll cover reaction from Jan Leike, Ilya Sutskever, Sam Altman and more. I will also feature the highly relevant paper 'Language Models Don’t Always Say What They Think: Unfaithful Explanations in Chain-of-Thought Prompting'. I'll also give a glimpse from Rob Miles about just how weirdly GPT 4 might think.Verify Paper: https://cdn.openai.com/improving-mathematical-reasoning-with-process-supervision/Lets_Verify_Step_by_Step.pdfRelease Page: https://openai.com/research/improving-mathematical-reasoning-with-process-supervision#samplesAltman tweet: https://twitter.com/sama/status/1664018190840614912Language Models Don’t Always Say What They Think: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2305.04388.pdfSparks of AGI MATH Comparison: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.12712v5.pdfPaLM 2 Comparison: https://ai.google/static/documents/palm2techreport.pdfAP Chemistry Calc: https://www.albert.io/blog/ap-chemistry-score-calculator/Altman Synthetic Data (min 4): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1egAKCKPKCk&t=764sAnthropic View: https://www.anthropic.com/index/core-views-on-ai-safetyJan Leike Tweet: https://twitter.com/janleike/status/1663977494058520576Rob Miles' Tweet: https://twitter.com/robertskmiles/status/1663534255249453056https://www.patreon.com/AIExplained Non-Hype, Free Newsletter: https://signaltonoise.beehiiv.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    'Show Your Working': ChatGPT Performance Doubled w/ Process Rewards (+Synthetic Data Event Horizon)

  6. 7h ago

    Orca: The Model Few Saw Coming

    The first model set to be opensourced that actually comes close to ChatGPT, and is just 13B (that's small enough for a laptop). The 51 page report from Microsoft was released just 48 hours ago but I have gone through it all, and bring relevant insights from 5 other papers.By imitating the logic and explanations of GPT 4 (and using GPT 3.5 as an assistant), as well as by training on diverse tasks and an order of magnitude more examples, we have Orca. I will showcase it on a dozen benchmarks and go through in detail how it works and why. I will also end on comments from Sam Altman and Ilya Sutskever on whether Opensource will catch-up...Orca Paper: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2306.02707.pdfFalse Promise Paper: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2305.15717.pdfhttps://sharegpt.com/FLAN: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2301.13688.pdfVicuna: https://lmsys.org/blog/2023-03-30-vicuna/No Moat memo: https://www.semianalysis.com/p/google-we-have-no-moat-and-neitherLLM Leaderboard: https://chat.lmsys.org/?leaderboardAGIEval: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2304.06364.pdfBIG-Bench Hard: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2210.09261.pdfLanguage Models as Tool Makers: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2305.17126.pdfAltman Interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VWUhASix9wsDERA Paper: https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.17071Let's Verify Step by Step: https://arxiv.org/abs/2305.20050https://www.patreon.com/AIExplained Non-Hype, Free Newsletter: https://signaltonoise.beehiiv.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    Orca: The Model Few Saw Coming

  7. 8h ago

    GPT 5 Will be Released 'Incrementally' - 5 Points from Brockman Statement [plus Timelines and Safety]

    Greg Brockman just revealed the thinking of OpenAI on how best to release GPT 5. He spoke of a 'continuum of better AIs' and I will break it all down in simple terms.With evidence from multiple sources, including the GPT 4 Technical report, I will go over each of the 5 telling points he made on Twitter, and feature external evidence from Ilya Sutskever, the Center for Humane Technology, Emad Mostaque, the Guardian and more.To learn more about capability improvements, do check out my previous GPT 5 video.My First GPT 5 Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c4aR_smQgxY&t=634sBrockman Tweet: https://twitter.com/gdb/status/1646183424024268800GPT 4 Technical Report: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.08774.pdfSutskever Interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yf1o0TQzry8&t=540sOpenAI Data and Form: https://help.openai.com/en/articles/7039943-data-usage-for-consumer-services-faqhttps://help.openai.com/en/articles/5722486-how-your-data-is-used-to-improve-model-performanceAI Dilemma: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xoVJKj8lcNQEconomist Exam: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/apr/06/chatgpt-ai-bryan-caplan-interviewEmad Mostaque Tweet: https://twitter.com/EMostaque/status/1641091842812026882Sparks of AGI Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qbIk7-JPB2cNvidia Data Center Tour: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vY61ExKhnfA&t=69shttps://www.patreon.com/AIExplained Non-Hype, Free Newsletter: https://signaltonoise.beehiiv.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    GPT 5 Will be Released 'Incrementally' - 5 Points from Brockman Statement [plus Timelines and Safety]

  8. 9h ago

    Gemini 3 Pro: Breakdown

    Gemini 3 Pro is out, and records fell like snowflakes in Svalbard. No long description, chapters or links today, huge technical difficulties, including with audio, so just want to publish asap.https://app.grayswan.ai/ai-explainedhttps://lmcouncil.aiAI Insiders ($9!): https://www.patreon.com/AIExplainedNon-hype Newsletter: https://signaltonoise.beehiiv.com/Podcast: https://aiexplainedopodcast.buzzsprout.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    Gemini 3 Pro: Breakdown
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About

Covering the biggest news of the century - the arrival of smarter-than-human AI. The author of Simple Bench, exposing the remaining human-LLM reasoning gap. Solo Developer of LM Council: https://lmcouncil.ai - Code - INSIDER15Join me at AI Insiders, with exclusive videos and a 1000+ network of AI enthusiasts and professionals: https://www.patreon.com/AIExplainedLinks:AI Insiders: Code - INSIDER15: https://www.patreon.com/AIExplainedMy AI Council App: https://lmcouncil.aiSimple Bench: https://simple-bench.com/Podcast (New!): https://aiexplainedopodcast.buzzsprout.com/Newsletter: https://signaltonoise.beehiiv.com/X: https://twitter.com/AIExplainedYT

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  • Creator
    AI Explained
  • Years Active
    2026
  • Episodes
    99
  • Rating
    Explicit

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