649 episodes

Welcome to our daily podcast featuring the day's top news commentary and technical recommendations delivered to you before the opening bells of the Egyptian Stock Exchange (EGX).Alongside our morning podcasts, we will be publishing a collection of episodes presenting indepth analysis and insights on EGX's equities, all brought to you by Al Ahly Pharos.

Al Ahly Pharos Al Ahly Pharos

    • Business

Welcome to our daily podcast featuring the day's top news commentary and technical recommendations delivered to you before the opening bells of the Egyptian Stock Exchange (EGX).Alongside our morning podcasts, we will be publishing a collection of episodes presenting indepth analysis and insights on EGX's equities, all brought to you by Al Ahly Pharos.

    Pre-Trading Thoughts

    Pre-Trading Thoughts

    ORHD| A Dollar-Denominated Asset That Is Still Cheap. ORHD offers solid sales, exposure to the revival in tourism, diversified revenue mix (real estate, hotels, town management), sizable recurring income (hotels, town management), large residual land bank (around 25.0 million sqm), unique product offering (El Gouna, Makadi Heights, Taba Heights), solid development track record, and the shortest installment schedule and highest selling price among sector coverage offered in El Gouna. The stock is a key beneficiary of EGP depreciation on the asset side given land and units in El Gouna are priced in USD.  ORHD’s market cap/sqm is currently at USD11.4/sqm which is heavily discounted compared to historical land transaction sales prices of USD120-375/sqm in El Gouna. At the current market price, the stock offers 104.5% upside potential to our FV of EGP15.32/share.ORHD is trading at a P/E 2023 of ​4.7x and EV/EBITDA 2023 of ​2.9x.
    Imports worth more than USD 1.5 bn were cleared from our ports between 18-23 January.
    Banque Misr and the National Bank of Egypt are cancelling the offering of the one-year, 25% certificates of deposit after the end of January. 
    Minister of Electricity and Renewable Energy decided to extend the implementation of the decision not to implement an increase in electricity prices for an additional 6 months, ending on June 30, 2023. 
    The Public Authority for Industrial Development approved granting a free grace period of an additional six months to industrial projects that exceeded the implementation timetable, while exempting them from 50% of delay fines for previous periods.
    Sovereign Fund of Egypt revealed that 7 foreign consortia are examining 7 state-owned hotels, with the aim of increasing their capital, to acquire a 30% stake.
    AMOC released impressive 2Q22/23 financial indicators showing a 240% YoY and 52% QoQ growth in net profit before minority interest, recording EGP605 million. AMOC is trading at FY22/23 P/E of 4.9x and EV/EBITDA of 4.5x. At current FX assumptions, stock should yield a FV of EGP10.50/share.
    Mopco has appointed Mohamed El Sayed Sobhy Mansour Amer its new chairman and managing director.
    The Sovereign Fund, through its sub-fund for health services and pharmaceutical industries, signed two agreements to invest EGP 2 billion, in partnership with B Investments Holding Company, in the field of specialized health care services, and pharmaceutical distribution and trade services in Egypt.
    ORAS declared a second cash dividend distribution of EGP5.54/share for FY2021, bringing the year’s dividend yield to 10.0%. The dividend is to be distributed on February 9, 2023 for shareholders of record on February 2, 2023.
    The Ministry of Electricity and Renewable Energy has taken the first steps to implement the electrical supply project for the El Alamein-Sokhna high-speed electric train project, at a cost of nearly EGP10 billion. 
    ADCI released 2Q22/23 initial indicators. Bottom-line came in at EGP25.5 million in 2Q22/23 (+7.3% YoY, -7.9% QoQ), bottom-line recorded EGP53.2 million in 1H22/23 (+7.5% YoY). ADCI is currently trading at FY22/23f P/E of 5.9x and EV/EBITDA of 3.9x
    PHDC is establishing the GEMS British International School of Badya in its Badya project in partnership with Egypt Education Platform. 
    Hilton signed its second property in Marsa Alam, encompassing 282 rooms.
    SVCE appeal against Reliance Heavy Industries Co. was postponed till February 27, 2023.
     

    • 5 min
    Technical Analysis

    Technical Analysis

    - Market Overview 
    - COMI
    - JUFO
    - EGAS
    - ADIB
    - CIEB
    - ORWE
    - HRHO


    Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

    • 3 min
    Pre-Trading Thoughts

    Pre-Trading Thoughts

    The Egyptian government held an extended meeting with the World Bank, on Sunday, to discuss the country's financing package. The portfolio between Egypt and the World Bank is c.USD 6.8 billion.
    Al Mal Newspaper reported that several international institutions decided to invest in Egyptian sovereign debt instruments, including Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan. 
    Minister of Petroleum expected that Egypt's oil exports would reach more than USD18 billion in 2023, revealing that reserves for new gas discoveries are being evaluated.
    The Sovereign Wealth Fund of Egypt: Gulf investors are evaluating 7 hotels in Egypt, to purchase strategic stakes within, through capital injections. 
    HELI cancelled the agreement with Mountain View to co-develop the 1,695 feddan Heliopark land plot in light of current economic developments and rise in land valuations. Heliopark contributes EGP7.11/share to our EGP12.44/share HELI valuation assuming initial guidelines of the Mountain View co-development agreement.
    OCDI signed a EGP2.8 billion loan to partially finance the development cost of The Estates project.
    PHDC general assembly approved a EGP150.0 million financial lease contract with ICLE.
    NBE achieved a pretax profit of EGP48.58 billion in 9M22, compared to EGP48.26 billion in the same period last year. While the third quarter witnessed a pretax profit of EGP22.77 billion, compared to EGP19.08 billion by the end of September 2021.
    CI Capital and Compass Capital are launching a fund to invest in EGX-listed companies, with initial investments ranging between EGP 2-3 billion.
    ValU has partnered with the financial services technology startup “Sympl” to provide short-term soft payment solutions to its customers. 
    Live poultry prices rose this week by EGP6/Kg to reach EGP60/Kg from the farms despite the drop in feed prices on shortage in supply.
    The Finance Ministry is considering cutting a 5% development fee on imported mobile phone parts amid government plans to localize electronics assembly.
    MHOT reported 1H22/23 revenue of EGP398.8 million, up 65.0% y/y, and net profit of EGP347.2 million, up 129.7% y/y.
    Egypt’s Pharmaceutical and cosmeceutical exports grew by 38.8% YoY in 2022 to stand at USD968 million, compared to USD697 million in 2021.

    • 2 min
    Technical Analysis

    Technical Analysis

    Market Overview 



    Prepared by: Mayada Amin - CETA, CFTe

    • 1 min
    Pre-Trading Thoughts

    Pre-Trading Thoughts

    The government has signed a fresh USD1.5 bn financing agreement with the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC) to fund energy and basic commodities imports.
    The Supply Ministry is set to finalize the “fair prices” of a number of food and consumer commodities this month, to clamp down on price gouging amid soaring inflation.
    The country needs to invest some USD30 bn into tourism to grow the sector by 25-30% annually between now and 2028. 
    The CBE, FRA, and Social Housing Fund are putting together a plan to support real estate finance and boost real estate sales to people living abroad.
    Russia is moving towards activating a mechanism to accept payments for grain export deals to Egypt, in its local currency.
    Transport Ministry’s plan to hike the price of train tickets gradually over a four-year period has been put on hold by President ElSisi.
    The Ministry of Commerce and Industry is considering reducing the prices of land allocated for industrial activity in some Upper Egypt governorates, in order to attract more investments to those areas. 
    According to the Minister of Petroleum, installing household gas connections helped reducing LPG consumption from 4.2 million tons to 3.6 million tons, thus reducing the subsidy bill.
    JUFO rallied yesterday after the release of the company's founder and former CEO. Despite the rally, and the stock price reaching a 3-year high, the stock still offers a valuation gap of 19% between its current price and our fair value of EGP11.12/share. JUFO is currently trading at a FY23 P/E of 9.9x and an EV/EBITDA of 5.3x.
    GB Auto Group has rebranded itself as GB Corp, to create one unified entity, that overlooks GB Auto, GB Capital, GB Logistics, GB Ventures, GB Academy, and the Ghabbour Foundation for Development.
    An industry expert announced that locally assembled cars will witness a new 20-25% price increase during the current year, affected by the EGP devaluation, and the rising financing costs and interest rates.
    PHAR (FV: EGP50.00, OW) will hold its extraordinary general assembly on 18 February 2023 to decide on increasing the company’s issued capital from EGP991.7 million to EGP1,140.4 million (an increase of EGP148.75 million distributed over 14.87 shares) through a rights issue.
    Arab Investment Bank, which is 51% owned by HRHO, achieved 9M22 net profit of EGP401.2 million, compared to EGP7.2 million, at the end of 9M21. 
    The chemicals and fertilizers exports council plans to increase the total exports of the sector to USD10 billion in 2023, up from USD8.629 billion in 2022. 
    ALCN declared FY21/22 dividends distribution of EGP1.10 per share with a payout ratio of 81.7% and a dividend yield of 5.5% to be distributed on 13 February 2023, with the record date on 8 February 2023.
    Tourism company, Travco Group, plans to invest EGP7.0 billion in 2023 to raise its hotel capacity by 13% to 17k rooms.
    The New Urban Communities Authority is studying issuing future flow securitization bonds.
    Giza General Contracting Company (GGCC) has been rewarded the construction works of utilities worth EGP97.53 million in New Sohag City.
    Weekly Commodities Update
    Oil prices increased by 2.8% during the last week to close at USD87.63/bbl on Friday, affected by expectations for higher demand from China as it continues to lift COVID-19 restrictions.
    Brent, USD/bbl            87.6     2.8%
    Diesel-HSFO Spread, USD/ton          631.3   5.3%
    Egypt Urea, USD/ton  502.5   0.0%
    Polyethylene, USD/ton           1,100.0            0.0%
    Polypropylene, USD/ton         975.0   0.0%
    Steel/Iron Ore Spreads, USD/ton       464.9   0.0%
    LME Aluminu

    • 4 min
    Technical Analysis

    Technical Analysis

    Market Overview 

    • 1 min

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