Arms Control Wonk Jeffrey Lewis & Aaron Stein

Both plan on going first, but...
President Yoon Suk-yeol of South Korea is being piled on for discussing South Korean pursuits of nuclear weapons (although what he said *exactly* was distorted a little).
In the face of increasing pressure to respond to North Korea's nuclear posture, South Korea is realistically pursuing capabilities for rapid, precision strikes. North Korea feels similarly. 
As Jeffrey always says: both plan on going first in a conflict, but one of them is going to be wrong.  
Jeffrey and Aaron walk through President Yoon's statements, the complexities of the security situation on the Korean Peninsula, and the instabilities that result from mutual pre-emptive strike postures. 
Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Tyler Nighswander and Mike Nute have developed an incredible tool for detecting long-range missile and space launches by processing and visualizing ionospheric disturbances in GPS data. 

In one of the most fascinating and technically complex episodes of the ACW pod, Tyler and Mike join Jeffrey to talk about their wild new open-source intelligence tool, how it works, and what it means for missile and rocket observation. 
 
A visualization of their work can be seen here: https://twitter.com/ArmsControlWonk/status/1593452159365918722?s=20&t=hAI_EJvR8zCRMqj9u36yuw

And, of course, shout out to the ACW Slack Channel, wherin Tyler and Mike started this project. 
Tyler and Mike can be found on twitter at:  @tylerni7 and @michaelnute
Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Jeeze that was a big missile.
North Korea has tested another large ICBM, and this one was (another) doozy. Jeffrey and Aaron talk through modelling this missile, the potential theft of missile tech from Ukraine, Kim Jong Un's Bring Your Daughter to Work Day, and the incredible Missile Launch Detection tool that @tylerni7 and @michaelnute have spearheaded in the ACW Slack channel. 
Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

The Biden administration has been working to re-kindle New START talks with Russia, while working to deter Russian WMD use in Ukraine, in an era that increasingly appears to be about risk management instead of risk reduction. How do you restart heavily managed talks in an era of COVID restrictions? How do you do on-site inspections during a conventional conflict? 
Jeffrey and Aaron talk through the rough state of international nuclear arms control, the increasingly-complex balance of nuclear forces globally, and the core aspects of what makes deterrence actually work. 
 
Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Launch a missile get a pod
Launch a missile get a pod
Launch a missile get a pod
Launch a missile get a pod
Launch a missile get a pod
Launch a missile get a pod
Launch a missile get a pod
Launch a missile get a pod
Launch a missile get a pod
Launch a missile get a pod
 
Aaron and Jeffrey talk about North Korea's record-setting number of missile launches and what the North Korean launch authorities look like.  A new(?) ICBM, a new Hwasong-12 variant, the bizarre reservoir-bottom lake-missile, and a whole lotta rocket artillery are all keeping the community *very* busy... 
Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!
 
 

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is giving people brain worms. Multiple terrible reports, citing oSiNt aNaLyStS, have recently been released and grossly overexaggerated the risk of nuclear weapons use around Ukraine. These reports, particularly about the "nuclear weapons convoy headed towards Ukraine," don't help anyone and just add noise to a chaotic narrative. 
Jeffrey and Aaron take a knife to bad analysis, and muse on what deterrence actually means to the people living under it.
 
 
Tangentially related, Superproducer Scott is so excited to use this opening again, a year after its last use. 
 
Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!