Excess Returns

Excess Returns
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Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

  1. 12小时前

    The Four Pillars of Macro - And What They Say About This Market | Andy Constan

    Andy Constan returns to Excess Returns to break down today’s macro environment using his Four-Pillar Framework — growth, inflation, risk premia, and flows. Drawing on lessons from his time at Bridgewater and Brevan Howard, Andy explains how he blends systematic and discretionary approaches to form a clearer picture of markets. He discusses the AI-driven CapEx boom, the economic effects of tariffs, Fed independence under Trump, and why the current setup could produce extreme outcomes in either direction. Topics covered: Systematic vs. discretionary macro investing Andy’s Four-Pillar Framework: growth, inflation, risk premia, and flows How AI CapEx is driving growth — and what happens when it stops Tariffs, policy shifts, and their impact on inflation and growth The Fed’s independence and what it means for markets Risk premia, volatility, and asset allocation in uncertain environments How major flows and corporate buybacks shape market direction Why Andy sees a “digital” macro environment with binary outcomes Timestamps: 00:00 Intro and setup 02:00 Systematic vs. discretionary macro investing 14:00 The Four-Pillar Framework explained 22:00 Growth outlook and AI-driven CapEx boom 33:00 The real impact of tariffs on the economy 39:00 Thinking in probabilities and constructing macro portfolios 40:00 Fed independence and policy alignment 47:00 Labor market dynamics and AI uncertainty 48:30 Risk premia and asset allocation 56:00 Flows, buybacks, and corporate debt 01:00:00 What Andy’s watching next 01:06:00 Why macro outcomes have never been more digital

    1 小时 8 分钟

  2. 1天前

    What a Global Regime Change Means for Investors | Julian Brigden

    In this episode of Excess Returns, macro strategist Julian Brigden of MI2 Partners joins the show to break down today’s volatile market landscape. Brigden discusses why he believes we’re in one of the most fertile environments for macro investors in decades, the forces driving dollar weakness, inflation, and capital rotation, and how investors can position amid shifting policies, labor constraints, and AI’s uncertain impact. He also explains the risks of U.S. exceptionalism, the fragility of equity markets, and why he’s long everything not tied to the U.S. Topics covered: The role of macro as a “supporting actor” that becomes essential at tops and bottoms Why this may be the best macro environment in 40 years The policy and market implications of tariffs, immigration, and a weaker dollar Positioning for U.S. underperformance and the case for international assets How Brigden uses price confirmation and technical signals in his process The dollar’s impact on equity and sector leadership Inflation, labor markets, and the “no firing, no hiring” phenomenon Why AI’s economic impact will take longer than expected The probabilities of recession, inflation, and soft landing scenarios Fiscal dominance, debt, and the future of financial repression Why bonds are “a crap place to have your cash” The fragile reflexive cycle of passive investing and U.S. equities Lessons for individual investors about thinking independently and avoiding industry “cheerleaders” Timestamps: 00:00 Macro at extremes and U.S. underperformance risk 02:00 How Brigden uses macro analysis to time markets 06:00 Why this is a generational macro opportunity 08:00 Tariffs, growth, and the policy shift under Trump 12:00 Price confirmation and process discipline 15:00 The case for non-U.S. assets and sector rotation 20:00 Inflation waves and the labor market’s fragility 26:00 AI, uncertainty, and hiring hesitation 36:00 Recession vs. reacceleration probabilities 42:00 The debt problem and fiscal dominance 47:00 Sector positioning and the weak dollar playbook 51:00 Passive flows and market reflexivity 56:00 The hyper-financialized U.S. economy 01:00:00 AI, equity valuations, and risk of disappointment 01:01:00 Lessons for investors and independent thinking

    1 小时 3 分钟

  3. 2天前

    Big Rally. First Sell Signal Since April | Katie Stockton on What the Charts Say Could Come Next

    Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner at Fairlead Strategies, joins us for her quarterly technical outlook on markets, sectors, and asset classes. In this episode, Katie breaks down what her indicators are showing for equities, discusses the implications of new DeMark signals on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, and explores opportunities across sectors like healthcare, utilities, and energy. She also analyzes key macro charts including gold, oil, Treasury yields, and the dollar, and explains how investors can use technical analysis to manage risk and identify trends heading into year-end. Main topics covered: • The current technical setup for the S&P 500 and how Katie reads market momentum • The role of moving averages, MACD, and DeMark indicators in her process • Breadth, sentiment, and seasonal factors influencing market direction • Why the AI and tech rally may be entering a more selective phase • Sector analysis: healthcare, utilities, energy, and consumer staples • Trends in financials and what’s driving sector rotations • Overview of the Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF (TACK) and its positioning • The broadening theme, mega-cap leadership, and market concentration • Technical outlooks for gold, oil, Treasury yields, and the dollar • How correlations between bonds and equities are evolving • Key risk metrics Katie is watching into year-end Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction and S&P 500 setup 04:15 How Katie uses key technical indicators 07:00 Reading trend strength through moving averages 10:00 Balancing short- and long-term signals 12:00 Seasonality and sentiment in the current market 15:00 DeMark sell signals on the S&P and Nasdaq 18:30 What a correction could mean for the AI trade 20:20 Sector rotation and using technicals for allocation 23:30 Opportunities in healthcare and energy 25:30 Utilities and countertrend setups 27:20 Consumer staples and defensive positioning 29:00 Financials and recent weakness 31:00 Inside the TACK ETF and its strategy 34:10 Market breadth and mega-cap concentration 37:00 Gold’s breakout and sell discipline using technicals 41:00 Oil’s setup and resistance levels 43:15 10-year Treasury yield analysis 46:20 The dollar index and its key levels 48:15 Relationship between stocks and bonds 51:10 Final takeaways and closing

    52 分钟

  4. 3天前

    Electricity Is the New Oil | Rob Thummel on the Energy Opportunity from the AI Boom

    In this episode of Excess Returns, we’re joined by Rob Thummel of Tortoise Capital to discuss the critical intersection of energy and technology. Rob explains why “electricity is the new oil” as AI and data center demand reshape global power needs. We explore the future energy mix, investment opportunities across natural gas, nuclear, and renewables, and how investors can position for decades of transformation in the energy ecosystem. Topics covered: How AI is driving a new era of electricity demand The evolving U.S. energy mix: oil, gas, nuclear, and renewables Why electricity is becoming the new oil The scale of power needed to support AI and data centers Opportunities and challenges in renewables and battery storage The resurgence of nuclear and the role of natural gas How U.S. shale transformed inflation and global energy markets Energy infrastructure and why it offers steady returns How the TCAI ETF captures the “AI infrastructure” opportunity Risks and resilience of the U.S. power grid Lessons from 30 years investing in energy Timestamps: 00:00 Electricity is the new oil and the future of AI energy demand 02:00 The evolving U.S. energy mix and global demand growth 08:00 Why electricity, not oil, will power the next economic era 11:00 How much power AI and data centers will need 15:00 Can renewables meet rising energy demand? 20:00 The comeback of nuclear and its challenges 25:00 How U.S. shale changed global energy and inflation 32:00 Why energy infrastructure is less volatile than commodities 36:00 Inside Tortoise’s new AI infrastructure ETF (TCAI) 43:00 The rise of digital and electricity infrastructure plays 45:00 How Tortoise evaluates investments and valuations 49:00 The resilience and future expansion of the U.S. grid 52:00 Closing lessons: contrarian investing and energy’s importance

    55 分钟

  5. 4天前

    The Expensive Truth About Cheap Investing | Bogumil Baranowski

    In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler sits down with investor and author Bogumil Baranowski to discuss one of investing’s most important mindset shifts: moving beyond cheap stocks to paying up for quality and exceptional opportunities. Drawing on lessons from Warren Buffett, Ben Graham, and his own journey, Bogumil explains how value investing evolves across three key phases—buying cheap, buying good, and learning to pay up. The conversation explores patience, conviction, dead money periods, family wealth stewardship, and how to think about value versus price in a noisy world. Topics covered: • The “cheapest dentist” analogy and why investors chase bargains • The three phases of investor evolution: cheap, good, and exceptional • Lessons from Buffett, Munger, and Graham on paying up for quality • How to hold through drawdowns and dead money periods • Why patience and conviction are the hardest investing skills • Frugality, compounding, and lessons from his grandmother • How long-term family investors think about wealth and stewardship • The difference between price and value in modern markets • How to know when cheap is too cheap and quality is worth paying for • Why great investments are often simple to explain • The story behind his Wall Street Journal essay “The Expensive Truth About Cheap Investments” Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction – The cheapest dentist analogy 03:00 Why investors love cheap stocks 07:00 The evolution from bargain hunter to quality investor 09:00 Examples from Ben Graham, Buffett, and Facebook 15:30 Conviction, drawdowns, and dead money 19:00 Judging success by business progress, not stock price 27:00 Lessons from grandma on value and frugality 31:00 How Buffett evolved from cheap to quality 45:00 Investing for future generations 49:00 Invisible wealth and stewardship 52:00 The value investor dilemma 58:00 Equal-weight vs market-cap indexes 59:00 Lessons for the average investor 1:02:00 How much research you really need 1:04:30 How his WSJ essay came to life and final takeaways

    1 小时 9 分钟

  6. 5天前

    Evidence Based Factor Investing | Matt Zenz

    In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Matt Zenz of Longview Research Partners to explore factor investing, evidence-based strategies, and the challenges and opportunities in today’s markets. Matt shares insights from his engineering background, his time at DFA, and his current work running the Longview Advantage ETF (EBI). We cover the nuances of value, momentum, size, implementation, and how investors can think more effectively about long-term returns. Topics covered: Matt’s journey from engineering to investing Lessons learned at DFA and the foundation of evidence-based investing Defining factors and what makes them credible The role of value, momentum, quality, and size in portfolios The challenges of intangibles and redefining value Large cap tech dominance, mean reversion, and whether the world has changed Factor timing, valuation spreads, and Cliff Asness’ “sin” framework How momentum can be integrated with value tilts Portfolio construction: combining factors vs sleeve approaches Implementation challenges for large vs small managers How Longview manages liquidity, turnover, and trading costs The potential impact of AI on factor investing Future opportunities in implementation alpha and ETF design Matt’s biggest investing belief most peers disagree with The key lesson he would teach the average investor Timestamps: 00:00 Value vs returns and factor investing basics 03:00 From engineering and Boeing to investing 06:15 Time at DFA and lessons in evidence-based investing 07:30 What evidence-based investing really means 09:25 Defining factors and what makes them valid 12:00 Using value, profitability, size, and momentum 16:00 Large cap tech dominance and future returns 18:00 Mean reversion and whether the world has changed 20:00 How long does value need to struggle before it’s “dead”? 22:30 Should value be redefined for intangibles? 25:30 Intangibles, R&D, and why adjustments add noise 27:00 Value’s performance across economic cycles and migration 30:00 Interest rates, growth, and value performance 32:00 Factor timing and valuation spreads 34:15 The role of momentum in timing and implementation 35:00 How Longview applies passive-aggressive tilts 36:30 Combining factors vs sleeve approaches 39:00 How momentum is used in practice 41:30 Factor migration and average holding periods 43:00 The size premium and whether it still exists 44:30 The benefits of being nimble vs large fund families 47:30 Liquidity challenges in small cap value 52:00 The role of AI in investing 54:00 Where implementation adds the most alpha 55:30 One belief Matt holds that peers may disagree with 57:20 The one lesson for the average investor

    59 分钟

  7. 10月2日

    A Volatility Masterclass | Timeless Lessons from 30 Year Options Trader Noel Smith

    In this episode of Excess Returns, we’re joined by Noel Smith, co-founder and CIO of Convex Asset Management. Noel shares his unique journey from biochemistry and the military to market making, high-frequency trading, and running a volatility-focused hedge fund. We dig deep into volatility, regime models, income strategies, dispersion, tail hedging, and more, offering a rare look inside the world of professional options and volatility trading. Topics covered: Noel’s background: biochemistry, military, market making, HFT, hedge fund launch How markets have evolved since the 1990s Why volatility is the best source of market information Regime shift modeling and its role in strategy selection Using options for income and the trade-offs investors should understand Volatility harvesting and risk-defined short vol strategies The impact of zero DTE options on markets Dispersion trading and correlation dynamics Bond vol arbitrage and volatility surfaces Opportunistic trades like GameStop and meme stocks Tail hedging, its costs, and how to monetize hedges Lessons on flexibility, risk, and never being married to positions Timestamps: 00:00 Intro and Noel’s unique background 06:00 How markets have changed behind the scenes 07:00 Why volatility is the best information source 09:00 Regime shift model explained 19:00 Using options for income – benefits and risks 24:30 Volatility harvesting strategies 29:10 What the VIX does (and doesn’t) tell you 30:30 Zero DTE options and systemic risk 33:20 Dispersion trading explained 42:00 Bond vol arbitrage 45:00 Opportunistic trades: GameStop and beyond 51:30 Tail hedging and rebalancing 54:30 Lessons on flexibility and risk management

    1 小时 2 分钟

  8. 9月29日

    A Practical Guide to Market Valuation with Ben Carlson

    In this episode, we sit down with Ben Carlson of Ritholtz Wealth Management and A Wealth of Common Sense to talk about market valuations, the rise of AI, investor behavior, and what history can teach us about investing today. Ben shares his perspective on why valuations are harder to use than ever, how market structure has shifted, and the lessons he’s learned as both a writer and an investor navigating major market cycles. Topics covered in this episode: Why market valuations are harder to use today than in the past The impact of buybacks, margins, and technology on long-term comparisons Market concentration and the dominance of mega-cap tech stocks Passive investing flows, investor behavior, and government backstops How AI compares to past technological innovations and its investment implications Value versus growth cycles and why U.S. tech has broken historical norms The lessons of the NASDAQ since 2000 and defining the long term for investors Personal experiences from the 2008 financial crisis and the power of compounding Diversification, gold’s surprising performance, and the case for international investing Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction and market valuations 06:00 Structural changes and the role of buybacks 09:00 Margins, efficiency, and corporate dominance 12:00 Market concentration and the rise of mega-cap tech 14:00 Passive investing and household stock ownership 18:00 Government backstops and market resilience 23:00 Valuations as expectations vs. predictions 25:00 AI boom and capital allocation 29:00 Is this 1996 or 1999? Bubble comparisons 32:00 How AI may reshape investing and daily life 41:00 Investing in breakthrough technologies 43:00 Value versus growth cycles in the U.S. and abroad 46:00 Lessons from the NASDAQ and defining long-term investing 49:00 Compounding lessons from the 2008 financial crisis 53:00 Diversification, gold, and international performance

    56 分钟
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关于

Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

信息

  • 创作者
    Excess Returns
  • 活跃年份
    2019年 - 2025年
  • 单集
    389
  • 分级
    儿童适宜
  • 版权
    © 905628
  • 节目网站
    Excess Returns

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