Bayesian Supercycle

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The future of prediction market media. supercycle.blog

12 THG 5

John Aristotle Philips on Atomic Bombs, the CFTC, and the Value of Information

Featuring John Aristotle Philips. Our best episode yet! We discuss the value and ethics of democratizing information, how PredictIt got their no action letter, where the prediction market industry is going, and (as always) if futarchy could solve nuclear war. Get full access to The Supercycle at supercycle.blog/subscribe

37 phút
4 THG 5

Manifold: Death Markets, Manipulation, Shenanigans

Featuring Quroe, jim, and Mary Smith. Our strangest podcast. As a suspected AI joins in the middle of the meeting, we quickly decipher that this is, in fact, a real human using a voice filter. Nevertheless, we had some discussions about insurance using protocols such as Augur and how every prediction market is a bounty subject to manipulation. Episode #3 of The Supercycle podcast. Later this week we’ll be analyzing public comments on the CFTC’s proposed rule-changes, and next week we’ll be airing an episode with Michael Fischer of Endpoint Arena, the first prediction market for clinical trial outcomes. Eli will be attending a prediction market meetup in Zug, Switzerland, on May 15 courtesy of Elastics. Be sure to stop by if you’re in the area! RSVP here. Get full access to The Supercycle at supercycle.blog/subscribe

39 phút
27 THG 4

Harry Crane on Insider Trading, Market Microstructure, and Futarchy

Featuring Harry Crane. Harry has some great insights on market mechanics! One of the most interesting podcasts we’ve done, as well as the first episode co-hosted by both Eli and Flip since the rebrand. Episode #2 of The Supercycle podcast. We’ve got some very exciting guests coming up, so stay tuned for the next episode drop on Monday! And in case you missed it, read our investigation into left-wing media company More Perfect Union. Get full access to The Supercycle at supercycle.blog/subscribe

45 phút
20 THG 4

Metaculus Forecasters Panel

Featuring Ben Shindel, Yann Riviere, and Adonis Silva. Excellent conversation including discussion on forecasting process, data intake, how prediction markets differ from traditional forecasting, and even some P(Doom) reveals at the end. Episode #1 of The Supercycle Podcast. We’re looking forward to podcasting with Harry Crane later in the week. Get full access to The Supercycle at supercycle.blog/subscribe

41 phút
16 THG 4

Interview with Mikhail Samin

Get full access to Bayesian Supercycle at itsnotgambling.substack.com/subscribe Get full access to The Supercycle at supercycle.blog/subscribe

48 phút
5 THG 4

Polyfactual on Bayesian Supercycle

Get full access to Bayesian Supercycle at itsnotgambling.substack.com/subscribe Get full access to The Supercycle at supercycle.blog/subscribe

49 phút
28 THG 3

Interview with Adhi Rajaprabhakaran and Noah Zingler-Sternig

Get full access to Bayesian Supercycle at itsnotgambling.substack.com/subscribe Get full access to The Supercycle at supercycle.blog/subscribe

1 giờ 11 phút
26 THG 3

Bayesian Supercycle Interview w/Flip Pidot

Get full access to Bayesian Supercycle at itsnotgambling.substack.com/subscribe Get full access to The Supercycle at supercycle.blog/subscribe

1 giờ 4 phút

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The future of prediction market media. supercycle.blog

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