Between the Lies Podcast

Luke Tatum
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  • POLITICS
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Providing Positivity & Balance For An Uncertain World

  1. 5D AGO

    Palantir, Tencent, and the Architecture of Financial Surveillance: The X Money Episode | Between The Lies 033

    Remember when The Circle came out and everyone kind of laughed it off? A social media company that just… becomes the government? Cute little dystopian fiction. Yeah. Elon Musk is pushing X toward full "everything app" status, payments, savings accounts, a Visa partnership, money on deposit. It's being sold as convenience. And it probably will be convenient. That's kind of the problem. This week Luke, Rob, and I dug into what happens when you let a single platform own your financial life. We used WeChat as our case study, a billion-plus users in China, integrated payments, location data, social media, and unencrypted communications all flowing through one pipe. The parent company, Tencent, is technically private. But the Chinese Communist Party holds golden shares, small equity stakes with board seats that give them direct influence over content, regulation, and strategic direction. You don't need a majority. You need the right seat at the table. Here's the part that made my head hurt: the U.S. government just took equity positions in Intel. We've talked about government creep into American corporations on this show before. Add in the fact that credit card companies are already issuing green scores based on your spending habits, and the social credit infrastructure isn't a future problem. It's already partially assembled. The "road to hell is paved with convenience" came up, and I think that's the real thesis here. Nobody signs up for surveillance. They sign up for one-click payments and a 6% savings rate. The control comes later, after the habits are formed and the alternatives have atrophied. Luke made the point that matters most: owning your own banking function, what we talk about every week with IBC, puts the control back in your hands. Not in X. Not in Tencent. Not in whatever government takes a golden share next. A private, non-market-correlated strategy that predates the IRS isn't convenient in the Netflix-buffering sense. But it doesn't go offline when a government subpoena lands either. And Rob reminded us that the problem being "solved" by X Money is convenience, not your actual money problem. Your money problem is that only a fraction of your money is working for you at any given time. That's what IBC solves. One platform to rule them all does not. Also: several of my friends had their X accounts hacked this week. Glad none of them had their bank accounts in there. Free toolkit and more at PerfectSpiralCapital.com/podcast Websites Referenced: PerfectSpiralCapital.com/podcast X.com / X Money WeChat / Tencent  Palantir

    27 min

  2. APR 15

    They All Buried It! Q4 GDP Revisions Prove Again Economic Data Is Political Theater | Between The Lies 032

    There's a move they run every single quarter and it works every time. Some government agency throws out an economic number. It's good. It makes the front page. The world moves on. Then a month later, quietly, that number gets revised down. Then revised again. And by the time the truth shows up, it's page 63 of a policy wonk newsletter that three people read. This week on Between The Lies, Luke, Rob, and I dig into exactly that playbook — specifically the Q4 GDP revision that is honestly a masterclass in "trust me bro" economics. Here's what happened: The advance estimate for Q4 GDP growth came in at 1.4%. Fine. Not great, but fine. Then they did the math — turns out it was really 0.7%. Half. Then this week, another revision. Now it's 0.5%. Less than half of the original number. From a quarter that ended four months ago. Meanwhile, somewhere right now, someone is reading a headline about how the economy added 178,000 jobs in March and feeling great about it. Nobody's telling them we lost 140,000 in February. The frame of reference is everything, and whoever controls the frame controls the story. Luke takes us through why GDP as a metric is already broken before you even get to the revision games — specifically the part where government spending counts as economic activity. The government doesn't make anything. Every dollar they spend, they extracted from you first. So counting that as "growth" is basically counting the hole they dug as part of the foundation. Rob brings the accountability angle. There is none. These aren't people who get fired when they're off by 65% on a major economic indicator. They just update the spreadsheet and put out a new press release. We also get into the Austrian economics bookshelf — Murray Rothbard's Man, Economy, and State, Henry Hazlitt's Economics in One Lesson, Hayek's Fatal Conceit — because once you understand why central planning is structurally incapable of processing economic information, the revision circus makes perfect sense. It was always going to look like this. If you've been feeling like the economy the news describes doesn't match the economy you actually live in, this episode is for you. The data isn't broken. It's working exactly as intended — just not for you. Free toolkit at PerfectSpiralCapital.com/podcast — Luke's book, video courses, and a community that reads the corrections. Websites Referenced: perfectspiralcapital.com/podcast mises.org (Mises Institute — free Austrian economics audiobooks)

    26 min

  3. APR 5

    Microsoft, Tesla, and the Magnificent Seven: When "Just Buy the Index" Goes Wrong | Between The Lies 031

    They gave it a name. A fancy, Hollywood-sounding name. The Magnificent Seven. Once again reality does it's level best to ape fiction. Welcome back to Between The Lies. I'm Nicky P, here with Luke Tatum and Rob Brayton from Perfect Spiral Capital, and this week we're talking about the seven largest stocks in the S&P 500 — Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon, and Apple — and why every single one of them is down on the year as of late March 2026. Some of them significantly. Tesla is down 26%. Microsoft is down 15%. The S&P 500 as a whole is sitting at a little over 9% in the red. And these seven companies, which make up roughly 30% of the entire index, are the main reason why. If someone told you to just buy the index and forget about it, they owe you a phone call right now. Luke walks us through why the AI-fueled growth propping up these companies was always shakier than it looked — junk-rated bonds funding data center deals that may never get built, promises of gigawatts of power with no land, no infrastructure, and no clear path to profitability. Disney just pulled a massive deal off the table. Nvidia circulated an internal memo to reassure people they're not the next Enron. That's not a good sign. Rob adds the layer most people miss: when market value drops, that money doesn't vanish. It goes somewhere. Somebody is profiting on the way down, and it's almost never the average person who was told to trust the index. We also dig into the word "growth" itself — one of the most abused terms in finance. Growth measured against what? A dollar that buys less every year? When inflation is the baseline, the bar for real growth is a lot higher than the headlines admit. This connects back to something we've said before: without a stable currency, you can't even trust the scorecard. The show ends where it usually does — with a reminder that uncertainty is not a reason to panic, it's a reason to have a plan. If you want to know the strategies Luke and Rob actually use, the toolkit is at PerfectSpiralCapital.com/podcast. Also worth checking out Rob's separate YouTube channel — Rob Brayton PSC — for deeper dives on a lot of this material.

    22 min

  4. MAR 23

    CNBC Says: Buy Government Bonds, Stagflation Eats Your Savings | Between The Lies 030

    You've probably been hearing the word "stagflation" thrown around a lot lately and thinking — I have no idea what that means. Don't worry. Neither did I exactly. So I asked my experts.   Short version: prices go up, jobs disappear, and the economy stops growing. All at the same time. Fun stuff.   The reason this word keeps popping up right now is that we're already living in an economy that's been feeling off for a while — and a few nasty ingredients are coming together at once. Oil prices are up around 40% thanks to ongoing conflict in the Middle East. GDP growth just got revised down. The Fed is holding interest rates steady while everyone waits for cuts that aren't coming. And the job market? Only about 42% of new applicants are actually landing work.   The mainstream financial press has a bold solution for all of this: maybe buy some government bonds. Luke, Rob, and I are not fans of that answer.   What we actually dig into this episode is the history lesson most talking heads skip. Volcker raised rates to nearly 20% to "tame" the 1970s inflation — but the money printing never actually stopped. It was just covered up with pain. And here's the thing: that lever doesn't exist anymore. We're sitting on over $36 trillion in national debt. You can't Volcker your way out of that without the interest payments alone eating the country alive.   The economic definitions themselves keep getting quietly updated, too. Inflation used to mean an increase in the money supply. Now it's whatever number fits neatly into this quarter's CPI basket. That's not math. That's marketing.   What we keep coming back to — and I know it sounds like we say it every episode because we do — is that the people who are already operating outside the traditional market are watching all of this from a much more comfortable position. When markets are volatile and your neighbor's 401k is in freefall, the question isn't "how do I survive this?" It's "what can I buy right now?" That's what Infinite Banking builds. Not just protection. Options.   If you've been on the fence about understanding how this stuff actually works, now's probably a good time to stop being on the fence. Luke's book, a couple of free video courses, and a real conversation — all of it's waiting for you at PerfectSpiralCapital.com/podcast.

    28 min

  5. MAR 13

    Smart Money vs. Dumb Money: What Berkshire Hathaway Knows That Your 401k Doesn't | Between The Lies 029

    You know that feeling when you're watching a movie and you already know exactly how it ends, but you can't look away anyway? That's basically every episode of this show. And Episode 029 is no different. We're talking about private credit — the $2 to $3.5 trillion shadow lending market that most people have never heard of. Stack on private equity (another $8-10 trillion globally), then add in the insurance assets that have been quietly wired into this whole apparatus (another $7-9 trillion), and you're looking at roughly $20 trillion of exposure sitting just outside the regular banking system. For reference, the entire US banking system, all assets included, is around $23 trillion. That's not a rabbit hole. That's a canyon. The analogy to 2008 isn't subtle. Mortgage-backed securities were the last time someone packaged up a bunch of garbage, slapped a rating on it, and called it a diversified asset. Now we've got leveraged loans being re-leveraged, private capital chasing yield because post-2008 regulations pushed it out of conventional markets, and all of it funneling into a tech sector that's already carrying more of the US economy than any one sector should. Rob brings up a scenario that's been on my mind ever since he said it: what if a private credit collapse is the exact excuse needed to nationalize the financial system? You've seen this play before. Crisis happens, government swoops in, the people who caused the problem get bailed out, and you hold the bag. It's not paranoia; it's the historical record. Berkshire Hathaway is sitting on more cash than ever. Warren Buffett isn't doing that because everything looks fine. He's doing that because when things go on sale, he wants to be the buyer, not the one selling at a loss. That's the whole game. Speaking of which — GameStop. The moment retail investors got too close to seeing how the short machine actually works, the machine shut them down. The lesson wasn't "power to the people." The lesson was that the rules change when you start winning. Your 401k is on autopilot, funneling money into this system every two weeks, helping inflate the very bubble that might eventually wipe it out. That's not an accident. That's the design. If any of this sounds like reason to pay attention, start at PerfectSpiralCapital.com/podcast. Free toolkit, Luke's book, and a map out of this maze. Referenced: PerfectSpiralCapital.com/podcast Rob Brayton PSC (YouTube channel)

    30 min

  6. MAR 6

    What War Does To Your Wallet That The TV Won't Tell You | Between The Lies 028

    War. Who is it good for? If you answered "Raytheon shareholders and K Street lobbyists," congratulations — you're paying attention.   This week on Between The Lies, Luke Tatum, Rob Brayton, and I dug into the economics of war and why the "war is good for the economy" argument is one of the most persistent lies in mainstream financial thinking. With another Middle Eastern conflict dominating headlines and defense stocks ticking up, it felt like the right moment to pull back the curtain.   What We Cover: We start with Frederic Bastiat's broken window fallacy — the idea that destruction creates economic activity. Yes, technically. But every dollar funneled into Halliburton is a dollar that didn't go toward something durable, something generational, something actually useful. Rob makes the point that the best minds in academia get siphoned into defense industries because that's where the money is. What if that intellectual capital got redeployed into solving real problems instead?   Luke breaks down why 1946 — the year troops came home from World War II — was arguably the single greatest year for economic growth in U.S. history. Not because of government spending. Because private citizens came home, started companies, and got back to building wealth for themselves and their families. That's what actually drives an economy.   We also get into the ethics of investing in defense contractors (Luke drops a technical point on how secondary market stock purchases actually work), the Pentagon's missing $1.8 trillion that apparently nobody can locate, and why DARPA's budget is basically a black hole with a government seal on it.   The conclusion: war misallocates capital, destroys resources that could have compounded for generations, and benefits a very small group of people who are not you or me. If you want to protect yourself from the economic fallout of endless conflict, the answer isn't betting on Lockheed Martin — it's building your own financial infrastructure that governments and defense contracts can't touch.   Your focus should stay where it belongs: your family, your community, the things you can actually control.   Free toolkit with Luke's Amazon bestselling book and two video courses available at PerfectSpiralCapital.com/podcast.   Websites Referenced: PerfectSpiralCapital.com/podcast

    29 min

  7. MAR 3

    $1.8 Trillion in Private Credit Just Blinked: What Blue Owl Capital's Freeze Means for Your Money | Between The Lies 027

    Blue Owl Capital just told its investors "just kidding" about being able to get their money back. If you missed it, they halted redemptions on their private equity shares. Permanently. As in, you thought that was your money, but it turns out it was their money the whole time.   Welcome to the world of non-depository financial institutions — what Luke calls NDFIs, what we call No Diffys. These are the places where an absolutely enormous amount of money lives that isn't sitting in any bank you've ever walked into. We're talking $1.8 trillion in private credit alone. And very little of anyone's money in this space comes with any actual guarantees.   This week, Luke, Rob, and I break down what happened with Blue Owl Capital, why it matters way beyond just one fund, and why this rhymes a little too loudly with 2008 for our comfort.   What We Get Into: Blue Owl Capital halts investor redemptions — what actually happened and why Dark pools: the SEC-regulated trading environments where billions move without public reporting Why Carlisle Group, KKR, Blackstone, Aries, and Apollo are all moving in the same direction The term "SIFI" — Systemically Important Financial Institutions, or as I call it, too big to fail with better branding How the private banking system is literally twice the size of all public-facing bank deposits worldwide Why 46% of one Blue Owl fund being in tech/software stock is a problem if you think the AI bubble might be getting a little puffy Infinite banking as the private contract alternative that actually guarantees your access to your money The frustration here isn't just that one fund locked people out. It's that the system is designed so you don't get to know what's happening inside any of these black boxes until it's already affecting your money. Nobody reads their bank account agreement. Nobody understands that when you deposit money in a bank, legally, you're giving them a loan. The Dodd-Frank Act has some things to say about what happens to your money when things go sideways.   We're not saying this is definitely 2008. We've heard that before and we're tired of crying wolf as much as anyone. What we are saying is that when it smells like something, it might be that thing. And when private institutions that promised liquidity start telling people they can't have their money back, it might be worth having a system where that can't happen to you.   Free toolkit and Luke's Amazon bestselling book available at PerfectSpiralCapital.com/podcast.   Referenced: PerfectSpiralCapital.com/podcast Reuters (Blue Owl Capital reporting) Dodd-Frank Act SEC (Securities Exchange Commission)

    27 min

  8. FEB 21

    The IBC Mindset: Multi-Generational Wealth Without Epstein's Island | Between The Lies 026

    Rob spent the weekend with some of the sharpest long-range thinkers in finance and came back with something worth unpacking.   Welcome to Between The Lies, where Luke Tatum and Rob Brayton from Perfect Spiral Capital help me make sense of a world that keeps trying to pick your pocket while telling you it's doing you a favor. This week, Rob attended the annual Nelson Nash Institute Think Tank for the second time, and the theme hit different: think long range.   What We Cover: What actually happens at the Nelson Nash Institute Think Tank and why it's nothing like a normal financial conference The difference between "planning for retirement" and planning five generations out David Stearns on Keynesian debt-based economics versus the Austrian individualist alternative How fractional reserve banking quietly siphons wealth upward while you're busy watching the market Why the infinite banking concept is a tool, not a moral statement – and why that matters Nelson Nash's number one rule: think long range, and what that actually looks like in practice How banks themselves use cash value life insurance as a tier-one asset (spoiler: they're not doing it for your benefit) Why accumulating capital changes the opportunities you see Key Insights: Luke explains something that sounds simple but rewires how you think: when you accumulate capital, opportunities come to you. Most people aren't well-capitalized. They're not even thinking in those terms. The infinite banking concept gives you the framework to build that foundation – and the discipline to keep it.   Rob drives home what David Stearns laid out at the think tank: the dominant economic system is Keynesian, which is a polished way of saying debt-based with top-down control. The Austrian alternative puts the individual in charge – you finance what you need through your own system, and you're the one who profits from it.   Nobody here had to make any shady deals to get a seat at the table. That's kind of the whole point.   The Bigger Picture: When banks hold trillions in cash value life insurance as their most stable asset, and you're still waiting for permission from the same institutions to access your own money, something's off. The infinite banking concept exists to fix that imbalance at the individual level.   Nelson Nash's book, Becoming Your Own Banker, is still frequently a top-selling retirement book on Amazon. Short, readable, worth rereading every year.   If you're working with Perfect Spiral Capital and you want to attend a future think tank, reach out to Luke or Rob. If you're not working with them yet, that's what the free toolkit is for.   Websites Referenced: PerfectSpiralCapital.com/podcast Nelson Nash Institute (nelsonnashinstitute.com)

    20 min
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Providing Positivity & Balance For An Uncertain World

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