Excess Returns

Excess Returns
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Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

  1. 4小时前

    The Hidden Fingerprints of 100 Baggers | Chris Mayer and Robert Hagstrom on Finding the Perfect Business

    Subscribe on Spotify ⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/5IsVVM27KWP6SUW6KN2ife⁠ Subscribe on Apple Podcasts ⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-100-year-thinkers-long-term-compounding-in-a-short-term-world/id1845466003⁠ Subscribe on YouTube ⁠https://youtube.com/@excessreturns In this episode of The 100 Year Thinkers, Chris Mayer, Robert Hagstrom, Bogumil Baranowski, and Matt Zeigler dive deep into what truly makes a great business and how long-term investors can develop the conviction to hold through volatility, dead-money periods, and inevitable mistakes. They break down the characteristics of the perfect business, the behavioral challenges of long-term investing, the pain of errors of omission, how to evaluate management, and why returns on capital and cash generation matter so much over decades.

    1 小时 3 分钟

  2. 1天前

    He Invented the 4% Rule | Bill Bengen on Why He Now Thinks 5% Works

    Bill Bengen, the creator of the 4% rule, joins us to revisit one of the most important ideas in financial planning and retirement research. In this conversation, he explains the origins of the 4% rule, how his thinking has evolved over 30 years, and why he now believes retirees can safely withdraw closer to 4.7% — or even more — under certain conditions. We explore the data behind his findings, how to think about inflation, valuations, longevity, and sequence of returns risk, and the philosophy of living well in retirement. Topics covered: The origins and evolution of the 4% rule How Bill discovered the worst-case retirement scenario (1968) The role of inflation and market valuations in withdrawal rates Why he now recommends 65% equities instead of 55% How diversification increases sustainable withdrawals The logic behind a U-shaped equity glide path Sequence of returns risk and how to mitigate it Thoughts on the permanent portfolio and gold Bucket strategies and cash reserves Dynamic vs. fixed withdrawal methods How longevity and FIRE affect planning horizons Why retirees should spend and enjoy more The philosophy behind “A Richer Retirement” Timestamps: 00:00 The origins of the 4% rule 03:00 The 1968 retirement “buzz saw” scenario 07:00 Common misconceptions about the 4% rule 10:00 Inflation and valuation adjustments 13:00 Diversification and higher withdrawal rates 15:00 Longevity, FIRE, and extended retirements 16:00 The U-shaped equity glide path 18:00 Rebalancing and allocation timing 19:00 The permanent portfolio and gold 20:00 Sequence of returns risk explained 22:00 Cash reserves and bucket strategies 23:00 Dynamic withdrawal approaches 24:00 Why the rule is now closer to 4.7% 27:00 The changing market environment 29:00 Key charts and frameworks from the book 31:00 The eight essential elements of planning 33:00 Withdrawal strategies and asset allocation 34:00 Required minimum distributions 36:00 Reflections on creating the 4% rule 38:00 Bill’s philosophy on life and retirement 40:00 Closing thoughts and where to find his book

    41 分钟

  3. 4天前

    The Most Powerful Investing Tool You Aren’t Using | Four Lessons from Michael Mauboussin

    In this episode, we kick off our book project, The Most Important Investing Lesson: What the World’s Best Investors Would Teach You, with a deep dive into the ideas of Michael Mauboussin. We explore his most enduring lessons—concepts that have reshaped how we think about investing, decision making, and life. From base rates to expectations investing, we unpack how Mauboussin’s frameworks can help investors build better models of the world and make more rational, probabilistic decisions. Main topics covered: Why base rates are the most underused yet powerful tool in investing and life How to apply expectations investing and reverse engineer stock prices Why multiples are not valuation and how to earn the right to use shortcuts Understanding the paradox of skill and why luck matters more when everyone is good Lessons investors can apply across fields like business, sports, and personal decision making How humility, reference classes, and feedback loops improve judgment Reflections on learning, writing, and how AI tools are changing the creative process

    47 分钟

  4. 6天前

    The Bull Market You Don’t Want to Believe | Rupert Mitchell on China vs. the Mag Seven

    Rupert Mitchell of Blind Squirrel Macro joins Matt Zeigler to talk global markets, China’s resurgence, the AI CapEx boom, and where investors can still find value in a concentrated, overvalued U.S. market. Rupert shares insights from his recent trip to China, his evolving macro framework, and how he’s positioning across equities, credit, and real assets in what he believes could be the start of a long cycle shift away from U.S. dominance. Topics covered: China’s accelerating industrial and market recovery Why he sees the start of an 8–10 year bull market in China The “CapEx time bomb” under the Mag 7 U.S. vs. international equity performance and valuations The rise of fallen angels and how private credit changed high yield Why he may soon flip from short to long credit The end of the stock-bond correlation era His “Bushy” portfolio and defensive positioning Trend following, precious metals, and EM local debt Emerging opportunities in Africa and Uzbekistan The global energy complex and long-dated crude exposure Short ideas in fast casual restaurants and the “forgotten 493” How investor sentiment extremes create opportunity Timestamps: 00:00 China’s transformation and why Rupert’s bullish 05:00 The Made in China 2025 plan and global dominance 07:00 U.S. vs. international equity rotation 10:00 The Mag 7’s CapEx problem 14:00 The “forgotten 493” and passive flow dynamics 18:00 Bonds, credit spreads, and what the yield curve says 21:00 Private credit, fallen angels, and the next credit setup 25:00 The end of risk parity and correlation breakdown 27:00 Inside the Bushy portfolio and alternatives 30:00 Gold, miners, and precious metals strategy 33:00 Frontier and EM opportunities – Africa and Uzbekistan 39:00 The Acorns portfolio and global positioning 44:00 Energy stocks, refiners, and long-dated crude 49:00 The restaurant short thesis and U.S. consumer trends 53:00 Where to follow Rupert and Blind Squirrel Macro

    55 分钟

  5. 11月5日

    The Most Extreme Speculation in 40 Years | Richard Bernstein on What It Means for Markets

    In this episode, we are joined by Richard Bernstein, CIO and CEO of Richard Bernstein Advisors. We discuss why this is one of the most speculative market environments he has seen in his 40-year career, why he still believes it may also be one of the best eras for patient long-term investors, and how to think about the real opportunities hiding beneath the market's current narrow leadership. Richard breaks down his profit cycle framework, shares why investors are confusing economic stories for investment stories, and explains why non-US quality stocks and dividend strategies may be primed for a comeback.Topics covered • Speculation across asset classes and why it matters • Why fundamentals still offer big opportunities • The profit cycle vs the economic cycle • Divergence between the market leaders and the broader market • Inflation, pricing power, and corporate margins • Parallels between the AI boom and the dot-com bubble • Misallocation of capital and risks to the market • The case for non-US quality stocks • Where value investing could shine again • Dividend compounding and long-term wealth building • How RBA approaches macro-driven ETF investing • What investors are getting wrong about diversification • Deglobalization, reindustrialization, and long-term themes Timestamps 00:00 Intro and speculative environment 01:46 Best opportunities for patient investors 03:52 Profit cycle framework explained 06:00 Where we are in the profit cycle 07:32 What investors are missing on inflation 09:12 Lessons from the dot-com era and AI comparisons 13:46 What could trigger the speculative unwind 17:18 Valuations, CAPE, and return expectations 20:23 AI’s impact on margins and productivity 22:39 Can value outperform again 25:41 International opportunities and quality stocks 34:31 Market breadth and narrow leadership 36:00 The Fed, inflation targeting, and policy risks 40:11 RBA’s investment process and ETF selection 47:13 Diversification vs speculation behavior 49:26 Misallocation of capital and market risks 52:00 Deglobalization and manufacturing opportunities 54:13 Closing question: Stock market vs horse race 57:40 The business Richard would start today 58:29 Where to follow Richard Bernstein

    59 分钟

  6. 11月4日

    99.9% Focus on the Wrong Question | Victor Haghani on Why Static Allocation Fails

    In this episode, we sit down with Victor Haghani, founder of Elm Wealth and one of the original partners at LTCM, to explore his journey from running complex hedge fund strategies to adopting a simplified, evidence-based investment approach. We discuss how investors should think about expected returns, portfolio construction, dynamic asset allocation, valuation signals, buybacks, managed futures, and the dangers of extrapolating past returns into the future. Topics covered: • Victor’s journey from LTCM to simple, systematic investing • Why position sizing is as important as what you own • How to think about expected returns and valuation frameworks like CAPE and P-CAPE • The role of risk, risk premia, and personal utility in portfolio decisions • Why 60/40 and the permanent portfolio ignore expected returns • Buybacks, market elasticity, and capital flows • Indexing misconceptions and asset allocation discipline • The ETF structure and tax efficiency in asset allocation strategies • Concentration in large tech stocks and long-term equity returns • The importance of dynamic asset allocation vs static allocation • Key lessons for individual investors and avoiding “too good to be true” opportunities Timestamps: 00:00 Intro and Victor’s investing journey 03:00 Lessons from LTCM and shift to simplicity 09:00 Position sizing vs asset selection 13:00 Risk as a cost and thinking in expected returns 18:00 CAPE and the P-CAPE framework 26:00 How to use expected return estimates 34:00 The impact of buybacks on equity markets 39:00 Indexing vs poor asset allocation habits 43:00 Portfolio construction and global diversification 46:00 Why the permanent portfolio falls short 47:00 Managed futures and factors beyond stocks and bonds 50:00 Inside Elm’s dynamic allocation ETF 55:00 Market concentration and equity issuance risks 01:01:00 The case for dynamic allocation 01:02:50 Victor’s one investing lesson

    1 小时 6 分钟

  7. 11月2日

    The Case for Permanently Higher Market Valuations | Jim Paulsen

    Subscribe on Apple Podcsasts ⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-jim-paulsen-show/id1828054999⁠ Subscribe on Spotify ⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/3QaBDVGuBZ3cZfFZ4mqPFc⁠ Subscribe on YouTube ⁠https://www.youtube.com/excessreturns

    1 小时 9 分钟

  8. 10月31日

    The Liquidity Trap Door | Cem Karsan on Why We Are Likely in a Bubble, It Could Get Bigger, And What Pops It

    In this episode, Cem Karsan returns to Excess Returns to break down the market through the lens of liquidity, reflexivity, and options-driven market structure. We cover why he believes we are in a bubble but still early in its trajectory, the mechanics behind today’s volatility dynamics, the role of AI spending in sustaining the cycle, and why traditional 60/40 portfolios may face major challenges in the years ahead. Cem also explains how investors should think about tail risk, true diversification, and building portfolios for a world where liquidity flows dictate outcomes. Main topics covered Why we are in a bubble but still likely to go higher first Fundamentals vs liquidity as drivers of returns Options as the “3-D” market and how they now drive equities Reflexivity and how option flows influence asset prices Retail adoption of options and misperceptions in the space AI investment boom, tail risks, and market liquidity feedback loops Historical valuation regimes and recency bias in markets Portfolio construction beyond the 60/40 model Tail hedging and the role of long volatility Importance of true diversification and managing interest-rate risk Timestamps 00:00 Bubble dynamics and why being bullish can coexist with danger 03:00 Fundamentals vs liquidity as market drivers 08:00 Rise of options and how they now influence markets 14:00 Reflexivity explained in simple terms 19:00 Mistakes investors make with options and structured products 24:00 AI spending, liquidity expansion, and similarities to 1999 31:00 Tail risks, China/Taiwan, private markets, inflation signals 38:00 Why 60/40 has worked recently – and why it may fail ahead 52:00 Inequality, cycles, crisis as a clearing mechanism 54:00 Building a portfolio for the next decade: diversification, tail hedging, box spreads, and non-correlated strategies 1:04:00 Closing thoughts and takeaway for investors

    1 小时 5 分钟
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关于

Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

信息

  • 创作者
    Excess Returns
  • 活跃年份
    2019年 - 2025年
  • 单集
    411
  • 分级
    儿童适宜
  • 版权
    © 905628
  • 节目网站
    Excess Returns

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