C.O.B. Tuesday

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C.O.B. Tuesday is a weekly one-hour talk show that serves as a knowledge pipeline for the energy industry and the energy curious. We host honest, timely, conversations with people we believe can improve the discussion, can provide new perspectives, can share unique insights into key energy issues, and can discuss inventive, pragmatic solutions for a stronger energy future. Produced by Veriten. 

  1. "A Mine Is Tougher Than an Oil and Gas Field" – Alfredo Álvarez, EY Latin America

    38M AGO

    "A Mine Is Tougher Than an Oil and Gas Field" – Alfredo Álvarez, EY Latin America

    Today we were pleased to welcome Alfredo Álvarez, Industrial and Energy Leader at EY Latin America, for a wide-ranging discussion on the evolving energy, mining, and investment landscape across the region. Alfredo joined us from his office in Mexico City. We were especially excited to host Alfredo on Cinco de Mayo, as it felt like an opportune time to take a broader look at Latin America. In recent weeks and months, we have had several conversations focused on Argentina, Venezuela, Cuba, and Mexico. We were thrilled to hear Alfredo’s insights on capital flows, geopolitical dynamics, and development trends, as well as his perspective on the region’s evolving investment landscape.   In our conversation, Alfredo walks us through the evolving energy, mining, and industrial landscape across Latin America, highlighting the region’s significant resource base and growing strategic importance, particularly in mining, where Latin America holds a dominant share of global reserves. We discuss the resurgence in oil and gas activity across South America, including momentum in Argentina, Brazil, and Guyana, as well as early signs of reopening in Venezuela. We explore the shifting political and investment climate across the region, with improving conditions in countries such as Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Peru, alongside continued challenges in Mexico and Colombia. We cover China’s expanding role in Latin America through investment, financing, and trade, particularly in mining and infrastructure.   Alfredo shares his perspectives on emerging opportunities in frontier markets like Bolivia and Guyana, the growing role of digitalization in driving efficiency across energy and mining, and the broader theme of Latin America re-emerging as a compelling, albeit complex, destination for global capital. Thank you to Alfredo for joining us and sharing his thoughtful perspectives.   Jeff Tillery kicked off the show by noting that U.S. equity markets continue to push to new highs, with the S&P 500 up ~10–11% year-to-date and the Nasdaq up ~16%, even as crude prices have risen sharply. Despite this backdrop, the broader market appears to be largely shrugging off medium-term energy risks. Meanwhile, energy executives have become increasingly vocal about potential supply shortages, disruptions, and broader economic impacts. While some of that commentary may reflect industry positioning, there is a growing concern that prolonged energy constraints could create more meaningful economic headwinds. At the same time, early signs are emerging of increased domestic oil activity, with producers beginning to ramp up completion activity, suggesting increased oil output could follow. Mark Castiglione added his questions and perspective to the discussion as well.

    54 min
  2. "You’re Not Deterring a Country… You’re Deterring a Man" – Eyck Freymann, Author of "Defending Taiwan"

    APR 29

    "You’re Not Deterring a Country… You’re Deterring a Man" – Eyck Freymann, Author of "Defending Taiwan"

    Today we had the pleasure of hosting Eyck Freymann, Hoover Fellow at Stanford University and author of Defending Taiwan: A Strategy to Prevent War with China, published April 15 (linked here). His research focuses on strategies to preserve peace and protect U.S. interests and values in an era of systemic competition with China. He holds four degrees in history and China Studies form Oxford, Cambridge, and Harvard. In Defending Taiwan, Eyck outlines an integrated strategy to deter war with China and preserve an honorable peace. We appreciated the opportunity to explore the book’s key themes and hear Eyck’s perspective on a highly intricate geopolitical environment.   In our conversation, we explore the evolving geopolitical landscape surrounding China, Taiwan, and the broader U.S.-China strategic competition. Eyck shares his perspective that Taiwan is less the end goal and more the first “real test” of a much larger ambition by China to reshape the global order across technology, energy, and institutions. We discuss how Xi Jinping’s centralized leadership and long-term vision are shaping China’s approach and why understanding the motivations of a single decision-maker is increasingly important in assessing risk. We examine how deterrence is changing in this environment, with Eyck outlining the need for a more layered approach that spans diplomatic, military, economic, and strategic dimensions. We discuss how the longstanding policy of strategic ambiguity is being tested as the balance of power evolves, and what it means to deter not just a system, but a leader who may perceive a viable path to success under certain conditions.   We explore how a potential conflict over Taiwan may not begin with a traditional military invasion, but rather through more indirect forms of pressure, such as economic or regulatory actions that could force global companies to respond. Eyck highlights how these “gray zone” scenarios, alongside the strategic importance of Taiwan’s role in global semiconductor supply chains, could create difficult choices for the U.S. and its allies, particularly if escalation occurs outside of conventional military frameworks.   We also discuss the broader structure of an increasingly competitive and interconnected global system, as well as the growing importance of economic strategy, supply chains, and alliances in shaping outcomes. Eyck shares his view on the concept of “avalanche decoupling” as a more realistic pathway forward, alongside the need for stronger coordination with allies, a more robust defense industrial base, and renewed focus on domestic capacity. We also touch on the role of economic and financial pressure as a potential alternative to kinetic conflict, as well as the evolving dynamics between China and Russia. It was a dense and insightful conversation, and we’re thankful to Eyck for joining.   Mike Bradley started the show by noting that equity markets were moving sideways this week. In fixed income, he highlighted that 10-year Treasury yields were trading around 4.35%, driven by a better-than-expected consumer sentiment report. Looking ahead, Wednesday’s FOMC meeting is expected to result in no change to interest rates. However, Chairman Powell’s press conference will be closely watched, particularly for commentary on global supply chain disruptions stemming from the Iran conflict and the potential implications for both near- and longer-term inflation. In equities, markets continue to hover near all-time highs, with many investors viewing conditions as technically overbought and reflecting optimism around a potential resolution to the Iran conflict. In oil markets, WTI was trading near $100/bbl (up $8/bbl from last Tuesday’s COBT), largely due to the absence of a finalized Iran deal. Within the energy sector, investor focus has cent

    1h 10m
  3. "There Is No Certainty, Only Varying Degrees of Risk" – William Su, BlackRock

    APR 22

    "There Is No Certainty, Only Varying Degrees of Risk" – William Su, BlackRock

    Today we greatly enjoyed hosting William Su, Head of Public Energy Equities and Director of Research & Portfolio Manager, Fundamental Equities, at BlackRock. Will has an extensive career in research, investing, and commodities, and brings a valuable perspective to the global energy investor landscape. We were thrilled to visit with Will on how energy, geopolitics, and technology are increasingly intersecting to shape markets and investment frameworks.   In our conversation, we explore a market environment increasingly defined by volatility, geopolitical risk, and a growing disconnect between financial signals and physical realities. Will shares how investors are navigating uncertainty, balancing near-term volatility with a longer-term framework that emphasizes probabilities, team-based insight, and disciplined portfolio construction. We discuss a shift underway in how risk is being assessed, with greater focus on tail risks, diversification, and the role of real assets and infrastructure alongside traditional equities and fixed income.   Will outlines the emergence of a “two-track” global economy: on one hand, AI-driven investment and growth remain robust, providing a meaningful tailwind to GDP and equity markets; on the other, energy and commodity markets are tightening, with supply disruptions, infrastructure damage, and constrained capacity creating more persistent, structural risks that may take years to fully resolve. This divergence is reshaping how capital is allocated across sectors and regions, with increasing attention on energy security and the relative advantages of North American supply.   We examine the growing intersection of AI and energy and how AI is increasingly acting as a demand catalyst, reinforcing the need for reliable, scalable power and positioning oil, gas, and other hard assets as critical enablers of future growth. We also discuss the practical constraints around building the infrastructure needed to support this growth across data centers, power generation, and supply chains, as well as the broader re-emergence of energy as a central pillar of economic and market dynamics, with important implications for growth, policy, and global stability. We covered a great deal and appreciate Will for sharing his time and insights.   Mike Bradley started the show by noting that the next 24 hours could be very important and volatile for commodity and equity markets, given that President Trump’s ceasefire deadline was approaching. On the oil market front, he noted that WTI oil prices had traded up ~$9/bbl (to ~$92/bbl) this week, after closing down ~$11/bbl to ~$84/bbl last Friday, driven by concerns that the Iranian ceasefire deadline could be breached. On the broader equity market front, the S&P 500 had recently traded to all-time highs, supported by growing optimism over the past few weeks that an Iranian peace agreement and full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz were imminent. Equity markets over the last 30 days have shifted from technically “oversold” to “overbought” levels, which could present near-term risks.   With 1Q earnings season underway, Mike expects most companies to meet estimates but noted concern that the eight-week closure of the Strait of Hormuz will begin to work its way through global supply chains and negatively impact future quarterly results. In the Energy sector, investors are focused this week on Oil Services 1Q results. Halliburton (HAL) indicated on its 1Q call that North America (NAM) activity is showing clear signs of being in the “early innings” of a recovery. This theme is consistent with our view that a number of E&Ps will signal on their 1Q calls a shift toward modest oil production growth in 2H26.

    59 min
  4. "California is on Life Support"– Michael Mische, USC

    APR 21

    "California is on Life Support"– Michael Mische, USC

    Today we were fortunate to visit with our good friend Michael Mische, Associate Professor of Management at the University of Southern California’s Marshall School of Business. We were particularly interested in discussing his latest article, “California Gasoline Supply Outlook: A Disaster in the Making” (linked here). The article outlines a near-term outlook of acute gasoline supply shortages in California, driven by refinery closures, declining in-state crude production, and disrupted imports, raising the likelihood of higher prices and potential physical shortages in the weeks ahead. Mike Bradley and Maynard were pleased to hear Michael’s perspectives on this important and timely issue.   In our conversation, Michael walks us through the combined impact of declining in-state crude production, refinery closures, import dependence, California’s special gasoline blend requirements, and how these factors have contributed to a more constrained and less flexible fuel system. We discuss how recent global supply disruptions are interacting with these structural dynamics, tightening inventories and increasing the risk of near-term supply pressures.   We also explore affordability, regulatory complexity, and the broader policy tradeoffs shaping California’s energy system, including the role of fuel standards, taxation, and investment incentives. Michael shares his perspective on potential policy responses, including both state-level actions and a set of proposed federal executive orders aimed at increasing production, supporting refining capacity, and accelerating critical infrastructure. We examine potential pathways forward, from temporary regulatory adjustments to longer-term solutions such as expanding production, refining capacity, and pipeline infrastructure, and what these considerations could mean for consumers, policymakers, national security, and the evolving political landscape in the state. We greatly appreciate Michael for sharing his time and insights.

    58 min
  5. "The Strait Falls Into The Perfect Use Case For Robotics" – Doug Lambert, Saronic Technologies

    APR 15

    "The Strait Falls Into The Perfect Use Case For Robotics" – Doug Lambert, Saronic Technologies

    Today we were pleased to welcome Doug Lambert, Co-Founder and Chief Operating Officer of Saronic Technologies. Doug, alongside Dino Mavrookas (CEO), Rob Lehman (CCO), and Vibhav Altekar (CTO), co-founded Saronic in 2022 to advance maritime superiority through intelligent autonomous systems. Saronic’s mission is to equip the U.S. and its allies with advanced autonomous surface vessels, enhancing situational awareness and enabling more effective detection, tracking, and response to emerging maritime threats. The company recently closed a $1.75B Series D at a $9.25B valuation and announced a new downtown New Orleans office to support its expanding shipbuilding operations in Louisiana. We were thrilled to spend time with Doug and explore autonomy, maritime innovation, and the future of naval and offshore operations.   In our conversation, Doug provides an overview of Saronic, their product range, and rapid growth to ~1,500 employees. We discuss the convergence of enabling technologies (AI, machine learning, edge compute, and advanced sensors) that have made true maritime autonomy possible, why this moment is different from prior attempts, and the combination of technology breakthroughs, market tailwinds, and geopolitical developments that have accelerated adoption. We explore Saronic’s approach to designing purpose-built autonomous vessels, as well as their decision to vertically integrate across design, manufacturing, and operations, highlighting how scale production, control of the full system, and a data-driven flywheel are critical to driving down costs and unlocking broader adoption.   We examine the strategic implications of autonomy and how these platforms act as force multipliers across defense, offshore energy, and critical infrastructure. Doug shares his perspective on the concept of a hybrid fleet, where autonomous systems augment traditional assets, extend reach, and improve safety, and how this shift could reshape maritime strategy over time. We cover the importance of edge-based decision making versus cloud reliance, and how real-world deployment and data collection underpin both performance and competitive advantage.   We also touch on the broader industrial and cultural backdrop, including the reindustrialization of U.S. shipbuilding, the blending of software and skilled trades, and the growing importance of building in the physical world. We discuss workforce dynamics, labor constraints in maritime, adoption challenges, the gap between technical readiness and real-world trust as autonomy moves from concept to scaled deployment, and much more. It was a wide-ranging discussion and we’re thankful to Doug for sharing his time and unique insights.   Mike Bradley started the show by noting that the 10-year bond yield had moved down to ~4.27% following a softer-than-expected March PPI report (YoY +4%). While still elevated, the print came in well below consensus and remains far below the 11.7% peak seen during the Biden Presidency. On the oil market front, WTI was trading at ~$92/bbl, down $6–$7 on the day and $4–$5 since President Trump announced the Strait of Hormuz blockade over the weekend. He noted that global oil prices also moved lower on optimism around a potential second round of Iranian peace talks, as well as a meaningful downward revision (~730 kbpd) to the IEA’s 2026 demand outlook. Traders are now less focused on how high prices could go and more focused on how low they could fall if and when the Strait of Hormuz reopens. On the broader equity market front, the S&P 500 was up ~1% on the day and trading within ~0.5% of its all-time high, highlighting a notable divergence between energy market concerns and broader market optimism. Within equities, Energy was the worst-performing S&P sector on the day and has effectively round-tripped since the onset of the Iran conflict, now down ~11% from its March peak. Looking ahead, Oil Services Q1 earnings begin next

    1h 1m
  6. "The Demand Is Real. It’s Coming." – Mary Anne Brelinsky (Alpha Gen) and Sean Kelly (Amperon)

    APR 8

    "The Demand Is Real. It’s Coming." – Mary Anne Brelinsky (Alpha Gen) and Sean Kelly (Amperon)

    Today we had the unique opportunity to record COBT live from the Gulf Coast Power Association’s (GCPA) Annual Spring Conference in Houston. Joining us on stage were Mary Anne Brelinsky, President and Chief Commercial Officer of Alpha Generation, and Sean Kelly, CEO of Amperon. We were thrilled to explore the current power landscape with Sean and Mary Anne.   In our conversation, we examine the growing complexity of operating in today’s power markets, with Mary Anne explaining how managing a multi-ISO portfolio requires constant coordination across operations, commercial teams, and real-time decision-making in the face of shifting weather patterns, fuel volatility, and evolving regulations. She emphasizes that forecasting remains one of the industry’s biggest challenges, as decisions are made daily with imperfect information and an increasingly dynamic grid where supply and demand must be balanced in real time. Sean builds on these themes by discussing how Amperon is using AI and machine learning to improve forecasting accuracy, streamline workflows, and help customers navigate volatility, noting that the sheer volume of data has made traditional approaches obsolete. We cover the rapid acceleration in power demand driven by AI, data centers, and broader electrification trends, with Sean highlighting that while not all projected load will materialize, the directional shift is real and significant.   Mary Anne emphasizes the growing importance of reliability, resilience, and cybersecurity, noting that as more critical infrastructure becomes electrified, the stakes for keeping the grid secure and operational continue to rise. We discuss how the industry’s focus has shifted from improving efficiency to increasing output, with Mary Anne highlighting efforts to expand capacity at existing plants as one of the fastest and most practical solutions. Sean adds that capital is now flowing back into the power sector in a meaningful way, describing this as a structural turning point where electricity is finally being recognized as foundational to economic growth. We touch on increasing public and political attention on power markets, infrastructure bottlenecks, and the growing role of demand-side and behind-the-meter solutions in managing peak load. We close on the idea that while this may be one of the most challenging periods the industry has faced, it is also one of the most exciting, given the scale of opportunity and the critical role power will play in shaping the future.   Mike Bradley kicked off the discussion by emphasizing that markets are extremely volatile and remain sharply focused on President Trump’s Iran deadline (Tuesday evening) and his threat to bomb strategic targets, including bridges and electric generation assets. From a bond market perspective, the 10-year yield was trading at ~4.3%, with bonds taking their cue from developments in the Iran war and the associated commodity price fallout. Bond investors appear to be largely ignoring upcoming economic reports, including March CPI, and are instead trying to better understand what the Iran war could mean for long-term inflation. From an oil market perspective, WTI closed at ~$110/bbl, up ~$8/bbl over the last five trading days. Seaborne barrels appear to be a better representative of the true “physical” oil market, with Dated Brent surging to over $140/bbl this week. Oil traders seem focused on how high prices might rise with further escalation, while long-term investors appear more focused on when and how far oil prices might plunge once the Strait of Hormuz is reopened. On the broader equity market front, the S&P 500 was up ~3.5% over the last week and appears to be pricing in some modest optimism for an off-ramp in the Iran war. Energy, however, was the worst-performing sector over the same period, down ~3.5%, with most Energy subsectors down 1% to 4%. On a YTD basis, though, Energy remains by far the best-performing S&P sec

    50 min
  7. "Russia Isn’t Interested In Any Fast Resolution Of The Hormuz Crisis" – Tatiana Mitrova, Center on Global Energy Policy

    APR 1

    "Russia Isn’t Interested In Any Fast Resolution Of The Hormuz Crisis" – Tatiana Mitrova, Center on Global Energy Policy

    Today we greatly enjoyed hosting Dr. Tatiana Mitrova, Global Fellow at the Center on Global Energy Policy, Director of the New Energy Advancement Hub, and Senior Research Fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. Tatiana is an expert in energy systems, geopolitics, energy markets, and institutional decision-making, with particular emphasis on structural constraints, resilience, and risk. Born in Russia and now based in Cyprus, she brings a valuable perspective to the current turbulence involving Russia, Ukraine, Iran, and the broader global energy system.   In our conversation, we explore how the Russia-Ukraine war has evolved into a form of energy warfare, with drone attacks and other strikes increasingly targeting refineries, export terminals, pipelines, and broader energy infrastructure, forcing Russia’s energy sector to shift from traditional energy security toward physical asset defense. We cover the interaction between the Ukraine war and the Iran conflict, particularly how higher oil prices, tighter global supply, and diverted U.S. attention are giving Russia additional strategic and financial breathing room, even as attacks on infrastructure create export constraints. Tatiana explains that the more realistic risk for Russia is not near-term collapse but gradual degradation, as the Kremlin continues to prioritize war spending over civilian welfare and relies on oil revenues, reserves, and social insulation to sustain the system. She also outlines why territorial gains in Ukraine remain essential to Putin’s domestic legitimacy, making a negotiated settlement far more difficult.   We discuss the likely Russian summer offensive, Ukraine’s growing effectiveness in drone warfare, and the increasing vulnerability of Russian energy infrastructure. Tatiana walks through the domestic backdrop inside Russia, including war fatigue without viable opposition, a population shaped by a strong “fortress Russia” narrative, and a growing divide between insulated urban populations and regions bearing the human cost of the war. We touch on Russia’s longer-term positioning, including the ongoing pivot of energy exports away from Europe and toward China and India, the pricing and dependency risks embedded in that shift, and why Russia views the Iran conflict opportunistically rather than ideologically. She also explains how she thinks about the broader U.S.-China-Russia power dynamic, in which energy flows remain a central lever. We close by covering the longer-term social and economic consequences of the war inside Russia, including the implications of large-scale mobilization, reintegration challenges for returning soldiers, and the reality that the full costs of this conflict are likely to unfold over a decade or more rather than in the immediate term.   For additional reading, Tatiana’s article, “Russia’s Hormuz Dividend: Revenue, Leverage, and Limits,” is linked here. Another recent article, “How the Iran War Is Changing Europe’s Energy Transition,” is linked here. It was an insightful discussion, and we can’t thank Tatiana enough for sharing her time and thoughts with us.   Mike Bradley started the show by noting that U.S. equity markets were up 1.5% to 2.0% on the day, while the 10-year U.S. government bond yield was modestly lower and global oil prices were higher (Brent up ~$6/bbl and WTI up ~$2/bbl). He highlighted that the Iran war has entered its second month, provided a handful of monthly energy and equity market performance statistics, and noted that there still appears to be a real disconnect in oil markets (“physical” versus “financial/paper”) and between oil markets (up 55% to 65%) and U.S. equity markets (down ~7%).

    1h 8m
  8. "Things Are Happening Now That Make Absolutely No Rational Sense" - John Konrad, gCaptain

    MAR 25

    "Things Are Happening Now That Make Absolutely No Rational Sense" - John Konrad, gCaptain

    This week we were thrilled to welcome back Captain John Konrad, Founder and CEO of gCaptain and author of Fire on the Horizon. With the shipping situation in the Middle East rapidly evolving, John was the perfect expert to help us think through the many angles of this complex and multifaceted situation. As you will hear, this episode runs longer than our standard sixty minutes given the scope of the discussion.   In our conversation, John shares his perspective on how the Strait of Hormuz crisis fits into a broader and longer-running pattern of maritime disruption, naval vulnerability, and rising geopolitical risk. He argues that the key issue is not whether the U.S. anticipated this scenario, but how difficult it is to reopen a chokepoint like Hormuz when insurance markets, shipowner behavior, naval constraints, and broader strategic calculations all intersect. We explore the importance of war-risk insurance and tanker availability, and why “hulls in the water” may be one of the most underappreciated variables in the global energy system today.   John walks us through the cascading implications for LNG, fertilizer, desalination, and refined product markets, along with the growing regional fragmentation of energy prices as flows are disrupted. We discuss the role of operational surprise, the limits of European naval capacity, the complications associated with coalition rules of engagement, and why recent U.S. military effectiveness may, in part, reflect a more unilateral operating approach. We examine the broader maritime picture, including the decline of the U.S. merchant marine, the renewed push for American shipbuilding and maritime strategy, the key shipping and naval indicators John is watching most closely, and much more.   Mike Bradley started the show by highlighting the apparent disconnect between “paper/financial” barrels and “physical” oil barrels. He noted that WTI oil price was up ~$3/bbl on the day, to ~$91/bbl, while Brent price was also higher by a similar amount (~$104/bbl). The Brent-WTI oil spread has blown out to a 10-year high ($13 to $15/bbl). Mike also pointed out that Oman oil barrels destined for Asia recently traded at ~$180/bbl, reinforcing the view that physical markets remain far tighter than paper prices suggest. He closed by noting that “financial” markets, both oil and equity, appear to be dialing in a much quicker and more optimistic resolution to the Strait of Hormuz closure than what may ultimately prove to be the case.   About John Konrad Captain John Konrad is the founder and CEO of gCaptain, one of the world’s most-read maritime news websites, and a member of the Pentagon Press Corps. He holds a USCG Master Unlimited license. John studied naval architecture at the U.S. Naval Academy before graduating from SUNY Maritime College with a degree in Marine Transportation. His decade at sea included service aboard Military Sealift Command-operated ships, crude-oil supertankers running to Valdez, and dynamically positioned drillships supporting deepwater projects. In industry leadership roles, he participated in major offshore exploration and drilling campaigns, including the KG-D6 discovery with Reliance Industries and world record-setting deepwater work with Chevron. On April 20, 2010, John had finished overseeing the $750 million Deep Ocean Ascension newbuild project for BP when the Deepwater Horizon exploded. His seven years at Transocean and personal ties to members of the Horizon crew drove him to investigate the disaster, resulting in Fire on the Horizon (HarperCollins, 2011). In 2025, he co-authored Returning from Ebb Tide: Renewing the United States Commercial Maritime Enterprise for Marine Corps University Press. John has contributed to publications including Forbes, CIMSEC, Lloyd’s List, and the U.S. Coast Guard Compass, and has appeared on outlets including NPR and the BBC. He is an Associate Fellow of the Nautical Institute and a membe

    1h 14m
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About

C.O.B. Tuesday is a weekly one-hour talk show that serves as a knowledge pipeline for the energy industry and the energy curious. We host honest, timely, conversations with people we believe can improve the discussion, can provide new perspectives, can share unique insights into key energy issues, and can discuss inventive, pragmatic solutions for a stronger energy future. Produced by Veriten. 

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  • Creator
    Veriten
  • Years Active
    2022 - 2026
  • Episodes
    358
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © 2026 Veriten
  • Show Website
    C.O.B. Tuesday

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