C.O.B. Tuesday

Veriten

C.O.B. Tuesday is a weekly one-hour talk show that serves as a knowledge pipeline for the energy industry and the energy curious. We host honest, timely, conversations with people we believe can improve the discussion, can provide new perspectives, can share unique insights into key energy issues, and can discuss inventive, pragmatic solutions for a stronger energy future. Produced by Veriten. 

  1. "Cuba And The Rise Of The Miami Consensus" Featuring Sebastián Arcos, Florida International University

    1D AGO

    "Cuba And The Rise Of The Miami Consensus" Featuring Sebastián Arcos, Florida International University

    Like many of you, we have been following the recent developments in Cuba very closely. We were fortunate to sit down with Sebastián Arcos, Interim Director of the Cuban Research Institute at Florida International University, for a Special Edition COBT to discuss what is happening on the island and what it may mean going forward. Sebastián brings both deep personal experience and substantive expertise to the conversation. Born in Havana, he joined the Cuban Committee for Human Rights in 1987, left Cuba for the United States in 1992, and later served as part of the Freedom House delegation to the U.N. Human Rights Commission. He also advised the U.S. Department of State on human rights issues related to Cuba from 1998 to 2000 and earned both his Bachelor’s Degree in International Relations and Master’s Degree in Public Administration from FIU. We were thrilled to host Sebastián for such a timely and important discussion.   In our conversation, Sebastián outlines the long economic decline that has brought Cuba to its current position, including the collapse of Soviet support, the island’s dependence on imported oil, and the central role Venezuela has played in sustaining the regime. We explore Cuba’s worsening demographic crisis, the mass exodus of recent years, and the ways in which energy shortages, blackouts, and economic deterioration are now colliding with a deeply centralized political system still shaped by Raúl Castro, the military, and the opaque power structure behind the civilian government. Sebastián walks us through how he thinks about a possible Cuban transition, arguing that real change would require political reform before economic reform, a credible transitional figure, and a negotiated process that includes both the opposition inside Cuba and the exile community outside it. We discuss the role of the U.S. and the pressure campaign now bearing down on Havana, the importance of Marco Rubio and Mexico as external variables, the unresolved question of property rights, and the sectors that could attract investment in a post-transition Cuba, from tourism and minerals to manufacturing and services. Along the way, Sebastián draws striking parallels between Cuba and Iran, highlights the unique links between Cuba and Venezuela, and offers a clear-eyed view of what it would take for Cuba to move from totalitarian rule toward a democratic future. We greatly appreciate Sebastián for sharing his candid insights into a complex situation.   Mike Bradley started the show with a few details on Cuba’s electricity generation and energy production. He noted that Cuba has 6-7gw of electricity generation (~95% oil/fossil fuel). Cuba’s oil production is ~30kbpd (~65kbpd at its peak in 2003), its oil consumption is ~120kbpd, and 80-90kbpd of its oil imports were primarily supplied by Mexico and Venezuela prior to the de facto U.S. oil embargo started around January 2026. Veriten Senior Contributor Gabe Collins peppered in his questions and perspective to the discussion as well.   We hope you find today’s discussion as insightful and interesting as we did. Our best to you all!

    1h 9m
  2. Live from the Gulf of America with Deputy Secretary Kate MacGregor, Rep. Pete Stauber, and Mike Minarovic, Arena Energy

    2D AGO

    Live from the Gulf of America with Deputy Secretary Kate MacGregor, Rep. Pete Stauber, and Mike Minarovic, Arena Energy

    We are excited to share this on-the-road COBT featuring Deputy Secretary Kate MacGregor, Representative Pete Stauber, and Mike Minarovic, CEO of Arena Energy. Deputy Secretary MacGregor first joined the Department of the Interior in 2017, served in senior leadership roles during the first Trump Administration, and returned as Deputy Secretary in 2025 after serving as Vice President of Environmental Services at NextEra Energy. Representative Stauber is serving his fourth term in Congress and serves on the House Natural Resources Committee, where he chairs the Subcommittee on Energy and Mineral Resources, in addition to serving on the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee and the Small Business Committee. Last week, our team traveled to one of Arena’s rigs off the coast of Louisiana, where we had the opportunity to tour the facility, meet members of the crew, and sit down for a wide-ranging discussion on energy, minerals, permitting, and the policy landscape shaping the industry.   Our conversation with Pete, Kate, and Mike covered the strategic importance of Gulf of America oil and gas production, the role federal lease sales and royalty policy play in driving investment, and the Trump Administration’s push to accelerate permitting and restore regulatory certainty across energy and minerals. We discuss Interior’s central role in shaping U.S. energy policy, how development on public lands generates revenue that is reinvested back into national assets, how those lands are being viewed through both conservation and productive-use lenses, and why regulatory certainty is critical for long-term investment. We explore why domestic mining and critical minerals have become central to national security, how geopolitical instability is reinforcing the need for resilient American energy supply chains, how Gulf production remains physically connected to consumers across the country, and why affordability, reliability, and baseload power have moved back to the center of the policy conversation. We touch on AI’s growing role in upstream operations, Alaska’s renewed development potential, litigation reform, coal’s resurgence in the reliability debate, the workforce culture required to attract and retain skilled talent across the industrial economy, and much much more. We greatly enjoyed the conversation.   We can’t thank the Arena team enough for their hospitality and coordination in making this trip happen. We hope you enjoy the conversation as much as we did. And as always, thanks to you all for your friendship and support!

    43 min
  3. "Imagine Iran Had Been Integrated Into The Modern World Instead Of Declaring War On The Modern World" With Dr. Dan Yergin

    MAR 11

    "Imagine Iran Had Been Integrated Into The Modern World Instead Of Declaring War On The Modern World" With Dr. Dan Yergin

    Today we had the honor of welcoming back Dr. Dan Yergin, Vice Chairman of S&P Global and Chairman of CERAWeek. Dan is a Pulitzer Prize-winning author, one of the most respected voices in energy, and a longtime authority on the intersection of energy, geopolitics, and the global economy. He is also the author of The Prize, The Quest, and The New Map, books that have helped shape how the industry understands energy history, markets, and geopolitical risk. With CERAWeek kicking off on March 23, we were delighted to hear Dan’s latest insights on the evolving energy landscape, along with a preview of the key themes and conversations likely to shape this year’s conference (current agenda available here).   Our conversation began with Dan’s perspective on how recent events in Iran have dramatically changed the backdrop heading into CERAWeek, and why the market may have been too complacent in the early days of the disruption. Dan shares his view that bad policy is often made under duress, reminds us that oil prices were already moving higher during the Gulf buildup, and explains why this moment should be viewed through a broader lens than just the formal start of the conflict itself. We explore the themes likely to shape CERAWeek this year, including the growing convergence of energy, power, and tech, the role of gas and electricity in the AI buildout, the importance of critical minerals and copper, infrastructure and permitting, nuclear, and the future direction of upstream oil and gas. We touch on Europe’s continued energy vulnerability, the renewed importance of U.S. LNG, the prospect of Europe once again competing with Asia for cargoes, the unique risks that LNG faces through the Strait of Hormuz, and the broader implications for global gas markets. We discuss the range of outcomes for Gulf production shut-ins, why U.S. producers are unlikely to react to short-term price spikes, how insurance, freight costs, and physical security are shaping traffic through the Strait, and what the performance of the U.S. and Israeli militaries indicates about the scale of planning behind this operation. We also look at the longer-term questions underneath the current crisis, including the changing role of Gulf capital, the infrastructure limits around the Strait, the historic arc of Iran’s posture in the region, and why the convergence of tech and energy may be one of the most important and constructive forces shaping the industry today. As always, it was an insightful and thought-provoking discussion. Many thanks to Dan for sharing his perspective and time with us all.   Mike Bradley started the show by noting that the market conversation this week has once again been focused on U.S. strikes against Iran and the short- and intermediate-term fallout across commodities and equities. In crude, he highlighted that WTI has moved from the mid-$60s/bbl before the war to ~$85/bbl, after peaking near $120/bbl on Sunday night into Monday morning. The effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz has been the main driver for global oil prices, with Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia cutting production by 5–7 mmbpd due mostly to onshore oil storage constraints. WTI fell roughly $10/bbl in Tuesday’s trading due to rumors of a potential coordinated global SPR release of 300–400 million barrels. This war in Iran, at this point, should be viewed differently than the Ukraine war from an oil, natural gas, and economic standpoint. Global oil prices peaked about one month into that conflict, EU natural gas prices peaked roughly six months in, and economic stats such as U.S. CPI and PPI were significantly higher than today, so the pain threshold heading into this war seems more manageable. On the Energy equity front, the Energy sector is flattish since the Iran war started, significantly underperforming oil prices, with investors choosing not to chase energy equities with the move h

    54 min
  4. "The U.S. Military Is The Finest Military In The World" With Admiral Bill McRaven, Teddy Bunzel, George Bilicic, Lazard

    MAR 4

    "The U.S. Military Is The Finest Military In The World" With Admiral Bill McRaven, Teddy Bunzel, George Bilicic, Lazard

    Today we had the honor of welcoming three powerhouse guests from Lazard for an engaging discussion at the intersection of geopolitics, global security, and energy markets. Joining us were Admiral Bill McRaven, Retired Four-Star Admiral in the U.S. Navy and Senior Advisor at Lazard, Theodore Bunzel, Head of Lazard Geopolitical Advisory, and George Bilicic, Vice Chairman and Global Head of Power, Energy and Infrastructure. Bill is a Professor of National Security at the University of Texas Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs and previously served as Chancellor of the University of Texas System. During his military career, he commanded special operations forces at every level and led U.S. Special Operations Command. He oversaw the missions to capture both Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein. He joined Lazard as a Senior Advisor in 2021. Teddy has spent his career at the intersection of international political and economic affairs and financial services. He joined Lazard from BlackRock and also serves as a Non-Resident Fellow at the Center on Global Energy Policy. George Bilicic previously led Lazard’s Midwest Advisory Business and has over 20 years of experience at Lazard in the investment banking business. His prior roles include senior positions at Cravath, Merrill Lynch, KKR, and Sempra Energy.   Our conversation began with Bill’s insights into the situation in Iran and the broader Middle East, including what we are learning four days in, the difference between a more “surgical” campaign and a broader strike strategy, and the ways Tehran may try to expand the conflict and prolong it. Bill shares his assessment of the military operation so far, why Iran’s missile and drone response was expected, what surprised him tactically, how decentralizing command and control complicates targeting, and why regime change is far more complex than simply removing leadership. We explore the risks around the Strait of Hormuz, the realities of stockpiles and logistics, the strain of sustained deployments, and what seamless U.S.-Israel military coordination signals to China and Russia as they assess this new geopolitical map. George outlines what this volatility is doing in boardrooms around the world, from capital allocation and cost of capital to supply chain realignment, tariff sensitivity, and the growing premium on reliable 24/7 power. Teddy explains how Lazard integrates real-time geopolitical analysis into client strategy, why regulatory decision-making is becoming more discretionary, how European leaders are grappling with structural energy vulnerability and higher costs, how allies and European boardrooms are reassessing U.S. reliability, and why “trusted supply” is becoming central to LNG contracting and long-term energy security. We end by looking at the uncertain path forward, including the limits of prediction, the sustainability of current operations, and how geopolitics is increasingly embedded in corporate decision-making. Thank you to Bill, Teddy, and George for the insightful and timely discussion.   Mike Bradley started off by noting that this week’s macro conversation has been dominated by U.S. military strikes against Iran and the potential short- and intermediate-term market fallout. In rates, the 10-year Treasury yield moved up to 4.06% (up 12 bps), while some perceived safe havens like gold and silver were ironically lower on the week. In crude, WTI spiked Tuesday to roughly $78/bbl before pulling back to around $74/bbl, amid reports that the Strait of Hormuz was effectively shut—halting approximately 15 mmbpd of oil shipments. Oil retraced from intraday highs as markets focused on President Trump proposing financial security and military escorts for tankers in and out of the Gulf, rather than an SPR release. Refined products moved sharply higher, with wholesale diesel, gasoline, and heating oil up roughly 20% this week. Globally, Qatari LNG was shut down for the first time in 30+ years, help

    1 hr
  5. "Manufacturing Thrives On Certainty" Featuring Jay Timmons, National Association of Manufacturers

    FEB 27

    "Manufacturing Thrives On Certainty" Featuring Jay Timmons, National Association of Manufacturers

    We are pleased to share this Special Edition with Jay Timmons, President and CEO of the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM). Jay has led NAM since 2011 and first joined the organization in 2005 as Executive Vice President. As the leading voice for U.S. manufacturers, NAM sits at the center of policy, economic, and workforce issues shaping American industry today. The NAM team is currently in Houston as part of its State of Manufacturing Tour, traveling across New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Texas, and Arizona, to spotlight the policies and conditions needed for the U.S. to compete and win in a global economy. We were thrilled to host Jay and hear his perspective on domestic manufacturing, the evolving regulatory and trade landscape, supply chain resilience, energy policy, and the future of U.S. competitiveness in an increasingly complex global environment.   In our conversation, Jay outlines what he’s hearing from manufacturers on NAM’s State of Manufacturing Tour, starting with energy. Manufacturers consume roughly 30% of U.S. energy, and Jay emphasizes why affordable, reliable supply and delivery infrastructure are foundational to competitiveness. We discuss tax policy and why Jay views the 2017 reforms as “rocket fuel” for manufacturing investment, hiring, and wage growth, along with the importance of durable, codified provisions that give companies the certainty to deploy long-cycle capital. We cover the workforce gap (~433,000 open manufacturing jobs today and a projected 2 million by 2033), digging into what’s working on the ground, from community college partnerships to the modern return of shop class and continuous upskilling. Jay makes the case for bipartisan, skills-oriented immigration reform to support economic growth. We explore permitting and legal reform, where he emphasizes that manufacturing thrives on certainty and calls for a coordinated federal process that delivers faster “yes or no” decisions with guardrails to prevent endless litigation. On trade, we touch on tariff uncertainty, the importance of renewing and strengthening USMCA (particularly addressing transshipment), and the strategic value of North American supply chains, especially given the sizeable percent of manufacturers’ customers reside outside U.S. borders. We discuss AI and supply chain realities, why Jay sees AI as additive and a multiplier for productivity, and how even running at full capacity, the U.S. can only produce about 84% of what it needs today, driving NAM’s proposal for a “speed pass” to import critical inputs duty-free as domestic capacity scales. We also examine the broader manufacturing multiplier effect, the U.S.-China competitive dynamic, and why policy stability ultimately determines whether the U.S. can compete and win. It was a wide-ranging and insightful discussion and we’re grateful to Jay and his team for carving out time to stop by during a busy tour. For further reading, NAM’s AI & Energy Dominance Roadmap is linked here.   Mike Bradley kicked off the show with a quick update, noting that broader equity markets were down modestly on the day as all eyes were focused on NVIDIA’s quarterly results. NVIDIA surpassed expectations and delivered solid forward guidance, but the stock was underperforming given that investors are growing wary it can sustain this explosive revenue growth beyond the next couple of years.   Thank you to Leslie Beyer for connecting us with Jay and his team. And thanks to you all for your support and friendship!

    1h 1m
  6. "We’re Going To Have To Pay The Resilience Premium" Featuring Dr. Fiona Murray, MIT

    FEB 25

    "We’re Going To Have To Pay The Resilience Premium" Featuring Dr. Fiona Murray, MIT

    Today we had the very exciting and interesting opportunity to visit with Dr. Fiona Murray, Professor of Entrepreneurship and Co-Director of the Innovation Initiative at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Fiona is an internationally recognized policy expert on innovation ecosystems and the transformation of investments in science and technology into deep-tech startup ventures that address global challenges. In addition to her roles at MIT, where she previously served as an Associate Dean for Innovation, she is Chair of the NATO Innovation Fund and an Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research. She was awarded a Commander of the Order of the British Empire for her services to innovation and entrepreneurship in the United Kingdom. Fiona also serves on the UK Ministry of Defence Innovation Advisory Panel and the European Innovation Council Joint Expert Group and sits on a number of boards. We were thrilled to host Fiona to explore global markets, innovation ecosystems, and the shifting geopolitical landscape shaping technology and capital flows.   In our conversation, Fiona shares her perspective on the intersection of geopolitics and innovation and how geopolitical shocks increasingly shape technology development and commercialization. She outlines the post-2016 shift toward framing priority technologies through the lens of national and economic security, and the growing geopolitical constraints facing entrepreneurs. Drawing on discussions at the Munich Security Conference, Fiona highlights Europe’s strong talent base alongside structural constraints, including smaller venture capital pools, fragmented markets, pension fund limitations, and bureaucratic procurement processes. We explore how defense and security startups think about U.S. versus European capital and transatlantic expansion, the growing importance of dual-use investment, and resilience as a business case. Fiona explains NATO’s two-pronged innovation strategy and emphasizes the need for a “resilience premium” to support domestic and allied production. We discuss China’s competitive innovation model, industrial policy lessons for the West, and the need to scale critical technologies to reduce supply chain dependence and rebuild manufacturing capacity across allied markets. Fiona also shares her perspective at MIT, where students are increasingly prioritizing defense, security, and resilience, alongside energy and climate reframed through critical minerals and system resilience, with AI integration across disciplines. We cover AI’s role in lowering experimentation costs through simulation, large-company AI execution pitfalls, drone and autonomy lessons from Ukraine, and how to avoid overspending on AI. We close by asking where she sees innovation over the next decade, which she describes as “innovation at the extremes,” including fusion energy, Arctic navigation and mining, space commercialization, and other frontier environments. It was a fascinating discussion and we greatly appreciate Fiona for sharing her valuable time and insights.   To start the show, Mike Bradley noted that this week is centered on Tuesday’s State of the Union address and the policy implications that follow. On the bond market front, the 10-year remains steady, with traders’ attention turning to Friday’s PPI report. On the crude oil market front, WTI is trading at ~$66/bbl as markets weigh the potential for a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal versus whether the U.S. follows through on its threat of limited military strikes. WTI price could fall to low-$60/bbl if a nuclear deal is reached or rise to $70/bbl on escalation. The DJIA and S&P 500 are both up marginally since the Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s global tariffs last Friday. Technology stocks have staged a modest rebound after several weeks of underperformance. Energy has outperformed over the past week but has underperformed since last Friday’s tariff announcement. E&Ps will dominate

    53 min
  7. "There’s Definitely An Acreage Grab Ongoing By The Majors" With Ruaraidh Montgomery, Welligence

    FEB 20

    "There’s Definitely An Acreage Grab Ongoing By The Majors" With Ruaraidh Montgomery, Welligence

    We are pleased to share the final episode of our NAPE COBT series featuring Ruaraidh Montgomery, Head of Energy Trends & Analytics at Welligence Energy Analytics, to discuss the latest developments in global exploration trends. Prior to joining Welligence, Ruaraidh spent 13 years at Wood Mackenzie covering Latin America’s upstream and corporate sectors as well as the U.S. Gulf. At Welligence, he oversees all global upstream research. Welligence is a market intelligence firm exclusively focused on upstream oil and gas. Its platform provides tools and intelligence to assess opportunities, benchmark against peers, visualize upstream data, and access detailed asset valuations, among other capabilities. We were pleased to hear Ruaraidh’s insights.   In our conversation, Ruaraidh walks us through how the Welligence platform combines high-quality data acquisition with on-the-ground human intelligence to model global upstream activity and identify emerging opportunities. He outlines Welligence’s outlook for international exploration, noting that while 2026 activity is likely to remain relatively flat, a more meaningful pickup is expected in 2027–2029 as recently assembled exploration portfolios mature into drill-ready prospects. We discuss why exploration is structurally needed to support supply into the 2030s, and how majors and large independents are rebuilding exploration through bid rounds, farm-ins, and direct partnerships with national oil companies (NOCs). He describes a growing “land grab” for acreage across key regions including the Atlantic Margin, Brazil’s equatorial margin, the East Mediterranean, the Black Sea/Turkey, Greece, Libya, and parts of North Africa. We highlight Alaska’s Nanushuk play as a powerful example of how reprocessed seismic can unlock new stratigraphic potential in mature basins. We touch on host governments making fiscal terms more competitive to attract capital and the growing importance of above-ground dynamics, using Venezuela as an example of a potential monetization pathway for existing offshore gas via Trinidad’s infrastructure and Atlantic LNG. We cover how operators think about securing development capacity as activity rises, the opportunity to reprocess and upgrade seismic using AI to shorten the cycle from data to leads and prospects, the emerging interest in international shale, and the logic of pursuing first-mover advantage. We also discuss producing-country NOCs expanding internationally (notably QatarEnergy and ADNOC/XRG), Petrobras re-entering international exploration, Russia and Iran as geopolitical variables, Murphy’s Vietnam success as a mid-cap case study, how Welligence is using AI across modeling and intelligence workflows, and more. Ruaraidh’s slides from the discussion are linked here. Thanks to Ruaraidh for joining! Mike Bradley started off the discussion by noting that the 10-year U.S. bond yield has done essentially nothing this week (stuck between 4.0% to 4.10%), largely due to a lack of market-moving economic data. In crude markets, WTI finally broke out of its $60–$65/bbl price range for the first time since August 2024. Growing doubts around the prospects for an Iranian nuclear agreement have pushed oil prices higher this week, though any agreement reached in the coming weeks could just as easily push WTI price back to the lower end of its recent trading band. He also pointed to the strength (backwardation) in global oil prices, despite the IEA’s persistent narrative that global oil markets in 2026 will be oversupplied by ~3.7mmbpd, which Mike deemed completely ridiculous. In broader equities, the DJIA and S&P 500 were both down marginally. The Energy sector has benefitted this week from the move higher in oil prices and remains the best-performing S&P sector this year (up ~23%)

    59 min
  8. "The Market Has Really Flipped" Featuring Scott Richardson & Craig Lande, RBC

    FEB 19

    "The Market Has Really Flipped" Featuring Scott Richardson & Craig Lande, RBC

    We are excited to continue our NAPE COBT series with Scott Richardson, Global Head of Energy Investment Banking at RBC, and Craig Lande, Managing Director and Co-Head of RBC’s Energy A&D practice, to explore what’s driving today’s asset markets. Scott is the former Co-Founder of Richardson Barr and has more than 40 years of energy investment banking experience across the sale of both public and private companies, private and public debt transactions, fairness opinions, general advisory and asset divestitures. Craig joined RBC Richardson Barr in 2005 and previously served as Vice President at Waterous & Co. He has over 25 years of broad experience in the U.S. A&D market, including the sale of assets and companies, fairness opinions, and general advisory. Mark Castiglione and Maynard were thrilled to host Scott and Craig.   In our conversation, we explore the current asset market, with gas deals a much more significant share of the market amid a mix of new and returning buyers, including international capital (particularly Asia) pursuing Gulf Coast gas with LNG linkage. We discuss seller-friendly valuations driven by a scarcity premium and “four buckets” of demand (ABS-backed buyers, international buyers, strategics/publics, and private equity) competing for limited opportunities and fueling increasingly aggressive bid dynamics, including tighter bid rounds and more pre-emptive offers. We unpack ABS mechanics and their impact on PDP valuations, including the role of lower-cost capital and longer-dated hedging. We cover the disconnect between private-market asset valuations and public-market multiples, corporate M&A as a catalyst for future A&D supply, trading firms seeking physical commodity exposure, the return of commercial bank lending, and go-private considerations constrained by leverage. We examine how buyers are embedding inventory upside into valuations by assigning value to secondary and deeper zones, where pockets of new basin excitement remain (including the Rockies, Canada, and select international opportunities), how shifting regulatory dynamics have stimulated interest in New Mexico, and the evolving role of ABS financing and continuation vehicles. We also touch on whether AI is meaningfully changing transaction workflows, longer-term consolidation trends, the potential return of exploration capital domestically and abroad, and much more. It was a substantive and thought-provoking discussion.   Many thanks to Scott and Craig for their time and thoughtful insights during a very busy week. Stay tuned for our final NAPE episode focused on exploration. Our best to you all!

    1h 1m
4.7
out of 5
35 Ratings

About

C.O.B. Tuesday is a weekly one-hour talk show that serves as a knowledge pipeline for the energy industry and the energy curious. We host honest, timely, conversations with people we believe can improve the discussion, can provide new perspectives, can share unique insights into key energy issues, and can discuss inventive, pragmatic solutions for a stronger energy future. Produced by Veriten. 

You Might Also Like