CAPS Unlock Podcast

Peter Leonard
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  1. 6D AGO

    Who really rules Turkmenistan?

    In this week’s edition of the CAPS Unlock podcast, we turned our attention to one country that rarely gets the scrutiny it deserves: Turkmenistan. Despite its strategic location, vast gas reserves, and sensitive position between Iran, Afghanistan, and the rest of Central Asia, it remains one of the hardest states in the region to read clearly. Access is limited, reporting is constrained, and much of what emerges does so in fragments. To help make sense of that opacity, this episode brought together two guests with sharply different but complementary perspectives. Galiya Ibragimova, an expert on Central Asia and Eastern Europe and a contributor to Carnegie Politika, discussed the strange and still unresolved power arrangement at the top of the Turkmen state. Since Serdar Berdymukhamedov formally became president in March 2022, his father Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov, widely known as Arkadag, has remained a central political force, raising obvious questions about who really governs and how stable that balance is. The conversation also examined the external pressures shaping Turkmenistan’s options. Heavy dependence on gas exports to China, the uncertain prospects of alternative routes, and the fallout from instability in Iran and Afghanistan all leave Ashgabat exposed. Galiya walked through the recent and rather extraordinary episode of Arkadag’s trip to Florida, using it as a window into elite dynamics and the father-son relationship at the top of the regime. But the episode did not stay at the level of palace intrigue. Aynabat Yaylymova, founder of Saglyk and Progres Foundation, brought the discussion back to the realities of daily life inside Turkmenistan: corruption, weak institutions, poor access to healthcare, rising food prices, information controls, and the growing pressure on household budgets. Beyond the rumours surrounding intra-elite tensions, she argued, the more important fact is that ordinary Turkmens continue to pay the price for misrule. The result is a conversation that tries to connect the opaque politics of the Turkmen elite with the far more tangible pressures experienced by people on the ground. LINKS * Progres Foundation - https://progres.online/ * Saglyk - https://saglyk.org/ * Galiya Ibragimova’s author page at Carnegie Politika - https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/people/galiya-ibragimova * Galiya Ibragimova’s article on the Serdar-Gurbanguly power struggle and the Florida episode - https://www.hronikatm.com/2026/04/serdar-vs-arkadag-who-controls-turkmenistan/ * Galiya Ibragimova’s article on Turkmen gas exports and the fallout from the war in Iran - https://www.hronikatm.com/2026/03/pressurized-gas-how-the-wars-surrounding-turkmenistan-are-affecting-gas-exports/ Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

    44 min

  2. APR 7

    Central Asia between hunger, the atom and war

    This week’s episode looks at two structural pressures shaping Central Asia’s future: food insecurity in Tajikistan and energy strategy in Kyrgyzstan, before turning to the wider regional impact of the war in Iran. We begin in Tajikistan, where President Emomali Rahmon has warned of unprecedented food price rises. His explanations point outward, to climate change and global instability, but the domestic picture complicates that narrative. At the same time as calling for food security, authorities continue to push farmers toward cotton production. Reporting suggests this is not voluntary: quotas and administrative pressure leave farmers little room to prioritize food crops. The result is a system that prioritizes exportable raw materials over local consumption. That trade-off looks increasingly untenable in a country where malnutrition remains widespread and infrastructure constraints, especially lack of storage, undermine food stability. The contradiction is stark: rising demand for food alongside policies that disincentivize its production. The second story turns to Kyrgyzstan, where officials have floated a referendum on building a nuclear power plant. There are no concrete plans yet, but the signal matters. Electricity demand has risen sharply, while generation has barely kept pace, leaving a widening deficit covered by imports. Hydropower still dominates the system, but its seasonal volatility and exposure to climate risks make it unreliable as a sole backbone. Nuclear is being framed less as a replacement than as a stabilizer, baseload capacity to smooth out fluctuations. In our interview slot, we speak with Shakhlo Kamaladinova, Central Asia Coordinator for the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation. She explains how the war in Iran is affecting Central Asia not geographically, but structurally. Trade routes through Iranian ports remain critical, and disruptions are already feeding into higher insurance costs, logistical uncertainty, and long-term strategic recalculations. While alternative corridors exist, they lack the flexibility to fully compensate. The result is a region increasingly aware of its exposure, but not yet equipped to escape it. Links · Shakhlo Kamaladinova’s article at the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation: · President Rahmon’s speech in Sughd: https://president.tj/event/news/55134 · RFE/RL Tajik service report on Rahmon’s speech: https://www.azattyqasia.org/a/prezident-tadzhikistana-predupredil-o-bespretsedentnom-roste-tsen-na-prodovolstvie-v-etom-godu/33722989.html · Asia-Plus, April 2025, on farmers forced to destroy wheat for cotton: https://asiaplus.news/2025/04/18/v-rajonah-tadzhikistana-mestnye-vlasti-unichtozhayut-posevy-psheniczy-zastavlyaya-dehkan-sazhat-hlopok/ · Asia-Plus, February 2025, on cotton coercion: https://asiaplus.news/2025/02/25/fermerov-tadzhikistana-zastavlyayut-sazhat-hlopok/ · Avesta.tj, on cotton sowing campaign launch: https://avesta.tj/2026/03/27/v-kanibadame-nachalas-kampaniya-po-posevu-hlopka/ · World Food Program, Tajikistan food security data: https://docs.wfp.org/api/documents/WFP-0000172887/download/ · Eurasian Development Bank, warehouse infrastructure study: https://eabr.org/analytics/special-reports/warehouse-infrastructure-in-eurasia-the-opportunity-of-the-decade/ · Interfax on Kyrgyzstan nuclear referendum proposal: https://www.interfax.ru/world/1081927 · Rosatom, RITM-200N memorandum with Kyrgyzstan: https://rosatom-energy.ru/media/rosatom-news/rosatom-i-kirgiziya-dogovorilis-o-sotrudnichestve-v-sooruzhenii-atomnoy-stantsii-maloy-moshchnosti/ Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

    38 min

  3. MAR 31

    Kyrgyz political soap opera, Kazakhstan's media chill, and Central Asia's energy dilemma

    This week, we return to the political soap opera unfolding in Kyrgyzstan in the wake of the February removal of security chief Kamchybek Tashiyev. The pressure on Tashiyev’s family continues to mount. His brother, Shairbek, who surrendered his parliamentary mandate after a first police interrogation earlier in March, has now been called back in for a second round of questioning. His son, Tai-Muras, is facing a subtler social media campaign highlighting the $6 million profit made by his company between 2020 and 2025, a figure that raises pointed questions, given that President Sadyr Japarov was publicly praising Tai-Muras’ business acumen as recently as 2024. Meanwhile, the former National Bank chairman Melis Turgunbayev has been drawn into the investigation into state oil and gas company Kyrgyzneftegaz, briefly detained and now released, but still facing possible prosecution. But the story has another side: the acquittal of the so-called Kempir-Abad defendants, activists and politicians arrested in 2022 for opposing a controversial border deal with Uzbekistan, has now been upheld on appeal. And the journalist Makhabat Tazhibek kyzy of investigative outlet Temirov Live has been released from pre-trial detention. Thaw or managed transition? We discuss. We then turn to Kazakhstan, where popular YouTube channel Airan, with its nearly 1.2 million subscribers, has abruptly shut down. The explanation given was carefully, conspicuously vague. We examine what its closure says about the structural impossibility of independent media in Kazakhstan, against a backdrop of several recent journalist arrests. For our interview this week, we spoke with Demir Kabylbayev, senior analyst and energy sector lead at the Eurasian Development Bank, and lead author of a new report on Central Asia’s power sector. We discussed the region’s acute energy challenge: surging demand, ageing Soviet-era infrastructure, and the difficult path toward renewables, and why a pragmatic middle path may be the only realistic option. Link Power Sector of Central Asia: Modernization and Energy Transition - https://eabr.org/en/analytics/special-reports/power-sector-of-central-asia-modernization-and-energy-transition/ Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

    41 min

  4. MAR 24

    Silk Mirage: Joanna Lillis on Uzbekistan’s unfinished transition

    This week’s episode of the CAPS Unlock podcast departs from the usual format for a single in-depth conversation with journalist Joanna Lillis, whose new book Silk Mirage: Through the Looking Glass in Uzbekistan draws on more than two decades of reporting to examine the country’s evolution since independence. Lillis traces Uzbekistan’s trajectory from the repressive system built under Islam Karimov to the more open but still contradictory era of Shavkat Mirziyoyev. Rather than a conventional political history, the book is constructed through individual stories, with former political prisoners, exiles, activists, and artists, and allows the lived experience of the system to take precedence over official narratives. A central theme of the discussion is the question of historical reckoning. Lillis argues that Uzbekistan’s failure to confront episodes such as the Andijan massacre continues to shape both public life and private memory. Without a clear account of past abuses, she suggests, reforms risk resting on unstable foundations, with old practices, whether in the justice system or restrictions on speech, reappearing in new forms. The conversation also examines the limits of reform. While the eradication of state-sponsored forced labour in the cotton sector stands out as a genuine success, deeper structural issues in agriculture and governance remain unresolved. More broadly, Lillis points to a pattern of selective liberalisation: greater openness in some areas paired with persistent red lines in politics, media, and civic life. Attention turns to culture and society, where change is more dynamic. Uzbekistan today displays a complex mix of liberalising and conservative currents, from the rise of religious influencers to a still-cautious creative sector shaped by residual fear and self-censorship. At the same time, the state’s effort to promote a polished international image through culture and heritage sits uneasily alongside continued repression at home. Across the discussion runs a consistent argument: that Uzbekistan’s future development, economic as much as political, depends not only on reform, but on a more honest engagement with its past. Links Silk Mirage: Through the Looking Glass in Uzbekistan - https://www.bloomsbury.com/uk/silk-mirage-9781350292468/ Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

    40 min

  5. MAR 17

    Kazakhstan's referendum, Kyrgyz purge escalates, and Central Asia's museums

    In this week’s very packed episode of the CAPS Unlock podcast we cover a busy news week across two countries, and speak with a researcher whose work offers a fascinating lens on how Central Asian states construct national identity through their museums. We begin with Kazakhstan, where citizens went to the polls to approve a new constitution, the country’s third since independence. With official figures showing turnout of around 73 percent and 87 percent support for the new document, we walk through the key changes: the merger of Kazakhstan’s two chambers of parliament into a single body called the Kurultai, the creation of a new vice-presidential role, and the establishment of a new advisory institution called the People’s Council. We also reflect on what the process itself revealed; the speed at which the new document was adopted, questions around independent observation, and the broader project of national myth-making that a new constitutional holiday on March 15 represents. Then we turn to Kyrgyzstan, where what initially looked like a clean break between President Sadyr Japarov and his longtime ally and former security chief Kamchybek Tashiyev is becoming considerably more complicated. The state tax service has published an investigation on YouTube alleging that a network of companies connected to Tashiyev’s relatives systematically siphoned profits from the state oil company Kyrgyzneftegaz over five years, with losses estimated at over $45 million. Meanwhile, Tashiyev’s brother, Shairbek, has resigned from parliament (at least seven MPs linked to Tashiyev’s orbit have resigned their seats in recent weeks). We discuss what this escalation means for Kyrgyzstan’s political landscape and what it may portend for the future. Finally, in our interview segment, we speak with Katarzyna Jarosz, a researcher and author of Museums in Central Asia and the Construction of National Narratives (Palgrave Macmillan, 2025). Katarzyna takes us through what museums in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan reveal about how these states understand, and curate, their own pasts, and offers practical tips for visitors on how to read a Central Asian museum. Links: Katarzyna Jarosz, Museums in Central Asia and the Construction of National Narratives (Palgrave Macmillan, 2025) — https://www.springerprofessional.de/en/museums-in-central-asia-and-the-construction-of-national-narrati/51409240 The State Tax Service of Kyrgyzstan YouTube investigation into Kyrgyzneftegaz - Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

    45 min

  6. MAR 10

    Central Asia in the ripple zone of Iran’s war

    In this episode of the CAPS Unlock podcast, we speak with Eldaniz Gusseinov, head of research at Nightingale Int., about what the war between the United States, Israel and Iran could mean for Central Asia. Rather than dwelling on battlefield events, the conversation looks at the wider regional consequences of the conflict, particularly for trade routes, strategic connectivity and Central Asia’s ability to balance between larger powers. Gusseinov argues that the immediate effect on the region is less direct than many assume. The more important question lies in the ripple effects: how the war reshapes relations among Iran, Russia, China, Afghanistan and Pakistan, and how those shifts then feed back into Central Asia. He outlines three broad trends to watch. First, if the Iranian regime survives, Tehran may move closer to Moscow, giving Russia a stronger role in the corridors that run south through Iran and Afghanistan. Second, China may place greater weight on Central Asia as a stable neighbour and as a hedge against vulnerable maritime choke points and instability across the wider Asian space. Third, Afghanistan, squeezed by conflict with Pakistan and by disruptions to its access through Iran, may seek deeper integration with Central Asia and Russia via northern routes. The discussion also examines whether prolonged instability in Iran would damage Central Asia’s hopes of reaching the Indian Ocean, and whether alternatives such as Afghanistan, Pakistan or even a narrower focus on Afghanistan as a market might become more realistic. Gusseinov is sceptical of easy answers, arguing that geography still bites, infrastructure remains weak, and sanctions continue to impose a structural constraint. At the broadest level, the episode asks whether this war could narrow the space for Central Asia’s multi-vector diplomacy. Gusseinov’s answer is cautious. In the short term, yes, but over time, the region may still find new routes, new bargains and new ways to adapt. Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

    43 min

  7. MAR 3

    After Epic Fury: Central Asia’s balancing act

    Operation Epic Fury has forced every government in Central Asia to signal where it stands. And just as importantly, how carefully it intends to stand there. We began this week’s CAPS Unlock podcast with the U.S.–Israeli military campaign against Iran and the varied responses across the five Central Asian republics. Tajikistan, the region’s only Persian-speaking state, issued unusually warm condolences toward Tehran, though notably via its embassy rather than the presidential press service. Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan adopted more conventional diplomatic language, invoking dialogue and the UN Charter. Kazakhstan expressed solidarity with Jordan, Qatar and the UAE following Iranian retaliatory strikes and moved quickly to secure its nationals in Iran, including dozens of workers at a joint mining venture. Turkmenistan, which shares a long border with Iran, has remained publicly silent, a silence that reflects both exposure and constraint. We then turn to Russia’s decision to designate the Kazakhstan-focused outlet Respublika as a “foreign agent.” The move marks the first time Moscow has applied its domestic political labeling system to a media project centered on Kazakhstan. We discuss what this could mean in practice: whether Russia is testing Astana’s willingness to cooperate, whether this signals a broader attempt to extend Russian legal norms into the post-Soviet space, and how such designations may complicate media operations across borders. In this week’s interview, we speak with UK-based analyst Ora Lazic about her recent business position paper prepared ahead of the B5+1 meeting in Bishkek. Lazic challenges the idea of a critical minerals “gold rush.” While strategically important, the sector remains economically modest. She argues that Central Asia’s real task is institutional: modernising geological data, strengthening regulatory stability, building infrastructure along the Middle Corridor, and coordinating government-backed financing. If supply chain diversification away from China is serious, it will require sustained structural reform, not rhetoric. LINKS Critical Mineral Resources: Expanding Cooperation: Central Asia–United States Business Dialogues - https://www.cipe.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Critical-Mineral-Resources_B51-2026_en.pdf Respublika report on its inclusion in Russia’s list of “foreign agents” - https://respublika.kz.media/archives/157073 Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

    44 min

  8. FEB 24

    Kyrgyz sanctions, Turkmen signals, and Kazakh solar power

    This week’s edition of the CAPS Unlock podcast moves across three very different but interconnected storylines shaping Central Asia’s political and economic trajectory. We begin with the European Union’s stalled 20th sanctions package against Russia and, most relevantly for us, the likely inclusion of Kyrgyzstan. Although Hungary and Slovakia blocked the package for now, Kyrgyzstan had been earmarked under the EU’s new anti-circumvention mechanism. The concern is clear: a dramatic surge in re-exports of dual-use goods to Russia, alongside the rapid expansion of Kyrgyzstan’s licensed crypto sector. Since 2022, the country has built a regulatory framework for virtual asset service providers, issuing roughly 100 licenses and facilitating billions of dollars in transactions. Western authorities increasingly suspect that some of this infrastructure has enabled sanctions evasion. Even if sanctions do not materialise immediately, the reputational implications for Kyrgyzstan’s investment climate are significant. We then turn to Turkmenistan, where two carefully timed diplomatic signals raise larger geopolitical questions. Former president (and current National Leader) Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov travelled to Florida, offering familiar pitches for investment, including renewed references to the long-delayed TAPI pipeline. Separately, it has been reported that President Serdar Berdymukhamedov is preparing a visit to Brussels, where energy cooperation and the long-frozen EU–Turkmen Partnership and Cooperation Agreement are expected to feature prominently. With Europe searching for diversification away from Russian energy, and Washington recalibrating its posture toward Iran, Turkmenistan’s strategic positioning merits close attention. Finally, we speak with CAPS Unlock senior research fellow Azimzhan Khitakhunov about new research on Kazakhstan’s renewable sector. While clean energy accounts for roughly 7 percent of electricity generation, it remains concentrated in large installations. The report, which will be published on the CAPS Unlock website in the near future, examines how small and medium-sized enterprises could become drivers of decentralised green growth. Financing constraints, regulatory awareness gaps, and limited support mechanisms remain key barriers. Comparative lessons from Canada, Australia, and especially Uzbekistan illustrate how targeted incentives and information campaigns can accelerate uptake. Encouragingly, regional officials in Almaty have signalled interest in implementing elements of the study’s recommendations. Links Russia Leveraging Kyrgyzstan’s Crypto Ecosystem to Evade Sanctions - https://www.trmlabs.com/resources/blog/russia-leveraging-kyrgyzstans-crypto-ecosystem-to-evade-sanctions Reuters reporting on proposed EU sanctions affecting Kyrgyzstan - https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/kyrgyzstan-seeks-talks-with-eu-over-report-that-bloc-considers-sanctions-over-2026-02-02/ Turkmenistan’s president to visit EU for talks on energy, EU ambassador says - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/turkmenistans-president-visit-eu-talks-energy-eu-ambassador-says-2026-02-17/ Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

    48 min
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About

havli.substack.com

Information

  • Creator
    Peter Leonard
  • Years Active
    2024 - 2026
  • Episodes
    46
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © Peter Leonard
  • Show Website
    CAPS Unlock Podcast

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