In Their Own Words

The Deming Institute
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Interviews with members of The Deming Institute community, including industry leaders, practitioners, educators, Deming family members and others who share their stories of transformation and success through the innovative management and quality theories of Dr. W. Edwards Deming.

  1. -5 ДН.

    When is Change an Improvement?

    How do we really know when improvement has happened inside a school or organization? In this episode, John Dues and Andrew Stotz unpack a clear, three-part definition of improvement and show why evidence, method, and sustained results matter far more than year-to-year comparisons. Their discussion offers a practical lens for leaders who want to distinguish true progress from noise and build changes that last. TRANSCRIPT 0:00:02.4 Andrew Stotz: My name is Andrew Stotz and I'll be your host as we dive deeper into the teachings of Dr. W. Edwards Deming. Today I'm continuing my discussion with John Dues, who is part of the new generation of educators striving to apply Dr. Deming's principles to unleash student joy in learning. The topic for today is, How To Define Improvement. John, take it away.   0:00:23.3 John Dues: Hey, Andrew. It's good to be back. Yeah, I think this is really interesting. Apologies on the front end. I'm a little bit under the weather, so I may sound a little raspy today. But you know, one of the things that's really interesting is there's lots of claims of improvement. In my world, there's lots of claims of school im- improvement. I would even go as far as to say that those claims are like a dime a dozen, something like that. And the reason I say that is not to be mean or anything, but you know, I think that a lot of these claims, they're not grounded any kind of reasonable evidence. And I think sort of even beyond that, that claims are often made without a logical definition of improvement. So I thought in this episode we could talk about a three-part definition that makes it really easy to tell when improvement has occurred and just as importantly, when it hasn't.   0:01:21.9 Andrew Stotz: Exciting.   0:01:23.2 John Dues: Yeah. When I talk about this, I always like to start with a challenge. So, you know, if I'm in a workshop, I'll say, you know, get out a piece of paper and a pen so the listeners could do this as well and think about, you know, the successful improvement efforts that you've led throughout your career. So in my world, maybe it's increase in state test scores or maybe you improved student enrollment in your school. Maybe you did a better job at retaining the teachers in your school. It could be any number of things. Maybe it's decreasing student office referrals or decreasing chronic absenteeism rates in your school or your school system, which are two things on everybody's mind coming out of the pandemic especially. And I tell people, just create a list of those instances. And I give them a few minutes usually. And typically, people come up with eight, nine, 10 or so instances of improvement, whether that's teacher in their own classroom or principal in their school, or a superintendent thinking about the whole system. Then I say to them, now what I want you to do is pause and think, what does it mean to improve?   0:02:46.7 John Dues: What do you mean by that? And that really brings us to this important question. What is improvement? You know, and this was... Full disclosure, when I started thinking about this, I stumbled across the definition in a book I'll show you here in a second. But when I stumbled across this, you know, there was some conviction. And I think that probably a lot of educational leaders or just, you know, leaders in general would say, actually, I never really thought about that. I don't have an answer for this seemingly simple question. And like I said, I didn't have an answer to that question when I really thought about it, when I stumbled across the definition, probably for the majority of my career, maybe the first 20 years or so, if I'm at year 25. So, yeah, the first two decades, I would not have had a clear answer for that simple question. Now, I turn to this seminal work in the field of improvement science called The Improvement Guide. I'm sure a lot of people are familiar with this. And I'll share my screen so people can see the book and kind of share an interesting story about the book. And, you know, when you're... Can you see my screen all right now?   0:04:06.9 Andrew Stotz: Yep.   0:04:08.1 John Dues: So you can see, if you're just listening, you can see the covers of two books. So on the left, a lot of people will recognize The Improvement Guide. But there's an arrow up there. It says, second edition. And a lot of people will recognize that book. Probably less people. Maybe some people that have been doing improvement work for maybe three decades will know this other book, the first edition of The Improvement Guide. It's this purple book on the right, if you're watching. But there's this interesting anecdote that I actually think I might have heard maybe on your podcast when some of the authors were on. And almost as soon as they wrote this first edition, this purple edition, they got this note from this professor in Brazil, and it said, I know you guys are really big into improvement, and you're really big on operational definitions, but you've written this whole book on improvement, and nowhere in the book have you defined what you mean by improvement. So, you know, talk about a swing and a miss.   0:05:15.0 Andrew Stotz: Yeah. And just for listeners out there, you can go to the podcast.deming.org and you can search for quality as an organizational strategy with Cliff Norman and Dave Williams. We didn't talk about The Improvement Guide specifically, but definitely it's worth listening to those two.   0:05:33.3 John Dues: Yeah, and I think... So any of us that feel bad when we come to realize, like, how obvious that question is when we've made claims of improvement and don't have a definition. So even these guys that were writing a whole guide about how to do improvement missed as well. You know, and it's pretty obvious when you think about it that The Improvement Guide, that a book like that should have a clear definition for the central concept. That's right in the title. But it should be just as obvious to leaders that they also need a definition of improvement. And that definition should really precede any improvement claims then. So I thought it'd be interesting to take a look at the definition that the authors came up with in their improved second edition.   0:06:20.9 Andrew Stotz: Improvement in their improvement.   0:06:24.4 John Dues: Improvement in their improvement guide. Right. And the definition is really easy to follow. It's got three parts, and now I've adopted it into my own improvement work. But what they've said is improvement is "a change that alters how work is done or the makeup of a tool that produces visible positive differences relative to historical norms and relevant measures and it's sustained into the future." So we can kind of break that three parts of the definition down now. So in part one of the definition, what you have to be able to do is point to a change that was made that led to better results. You know, that could be a new tool you're using, a new approach, a new framework, maybe it's a new staff role, but something has to change, a new method, something has to change in what you're doing. So that's sort of part one of the definition. Part two is performance improved after the change compared to past results. So that also should be fairly obvious. So you did something different. You noted when you started this new thing, and at some point in relative proximity to when you tried that new thing, the data improved.   0:07:54.2 John Dues: You know, it went up. If that's the direction of good or, you know, if it's like chronic absenteeism or office referrals, you want it to go down. But you see that in the data after you've made this change, that's part two. And then part three is that improvement after the change was sustained into the future. So it wasn't just a temporary thing because you were paying a lot of attention to it, but you made the change. The data improved over time after you did this new thing, and then it kept going into the future.   0:08:27.9 Andrew Stotz: Which is the hardest part, by the way.   0:08:30.1 John Dues: The hardest part, I'd say too. Assuming you could bring about improvement, then sustaining it into the future, especially as you maybe take your eye off it a little bit, and then work on something else, that's very, very difficult.   0:08:43.1 Andrew Stotz: Yeah, the initial seizure that you get into of making change can be really powerful compared to the energy, you know, devoted to sustaining it.   0:08:55.9 John Dues: Yeah.   0:08:56.3 Andrew Stotz: And you could also argue, if something's not easily sustained, was it really an improvement?   0:09:02.8 John Dues: Right. I think that's just right. And, you know, what I do in the workshop then is then after I go over the definition, I ask people, now, think back to your list of successful improvement projects. You know, and for the listeners, if you pause, then you created your own list and then you heard that definition. Then I just asked the participants, would you revise your answer after reading this definition of improvement? And ask people, okay, now how many things, how many items are on that list? And a lot of people, if they're being honest, are left with none, actually. You know, because this definition sets a really high bar. But I think it is the right bar if you're actually interested in improving outcomes in your school, in my case, or in your organization. And I think what you often run up against is, this is kind of a simplified version of most improvement claims. But in my world, you hear claims, something like, you know, our state test scores improved. Right. The translation is, this school's or this year scores are higher than last year's scores.   0:10:25.8 John Dues: But that claim falls really short of that definition. Well, okay, the scores are better than last year. Well, what did you do to make them better? Also, a single data point is pr

    28 мин.

  2. 08.12.2025

    Optimizing Student Learning: Crazy Simple Education (Part 2)

    What if more quizzes created more joy—not stress? Lee Jenkins shows host Andrew Stotz how Deming-inspired practices like random-concept quizzes, student-led charts, and "all-time best" celebrations turn classrooms into true learning systems that build confidence, motivation, and real understanding. A simple shift in method—massive shift in joy. (View the powerpoint referenced in the podcast.) TRANSCRIPT 0:00:02.2 Andrew Stotz: My name is Andrew Stotz and I'll be your host as we dive deeper into the teachings of Dr. W. Edwards Deming. Today, I'm talking with Lee Jenkins, who is a career educator in public schools, completing his full-time work as a school district superintendent. During that work, he was introduced to the teachings of Dr. Deming and has been applying those teachings to his life and work since. In his business, Crazy Simple Education, he helps people apply Dr. Deming's principles in their schools to bring joy back to learning, to help kids learn more. The topic for today is how educators have applied Dr. Deming's ideas to learning. Lee, take it away.   0:00:42.8 Lee Jenkins: Thank you so much, Andrew. It's amazing what Dr. Deming taught in five minutes. I've been able to teach that for over 20 years. It's just amazing. And then you see in the next slide, it was Lou Rhodes. And this is just a short little review of what we did on the first podcast. But he's the one that said, I think you're going to enjoy this. Little did he know how much I was going to enjoy that in 1990 when he said that. And then in 1992, heard Dr. Deming in person as the statistician. And he described in five minutes just a little touch of what was different about a classroom as opposed to all the other systems that he was teaching. And so over time, you're going to see how it's been implemented with great joy with so many people. He taught that education should have a learning system instead of an inspection system. And that's what we have, is an inspection system. The state departments of education inspect the schools and the teachers inspect the kids. We don't have a learning system. So if you think about that distinction, it's truly a learning system. And you're going to see that as we go through this today.   0:01:51.2 Andrew Stotz: Lee, I was just... After listening to you in the last episode and listening to some of our other great guests on the show, I talked to my students about this. And one of my students, after I went through it and talked about the random sampling as an example of questions to understand the level of knowledge that students as a group are getting, one of my students at this prestigious university I teach at in Thailand said, "So why are you grading us? "   0:02:26.1 Lee Jenkins: Yes. Yes. That's it.   0:02:27.4 Andrew Stotz: And I said... Lee, I need help. I gave my best answer and that is, "I decided that right now, the fight with the university to change the way it's done is not a fight I'm prepared to take. But what I'm going to do is try to deliver the best experience I can in the room." Now, that was a bit of a cop out, but that's part of... People who are listening and viewing this are also caught in a system, in a trap, an inspection system. So it's just great to hear you talk about this and it can help us think about how we can handle it.   0:03:09.9 Lee Jenkins: People say that education hasn't been improved for 50 years. Then think about it. We've had an inspection system for 50 years. Maybe that's the problem, right? So here's what Dr. Deming taught. Tell them what you want them to know first week of school. Here it is. You're going to give them a weekly quiz. The quiz is going to be the square root of the total number of concepts you want them to learn. So a teacher teaching a second language, 400 vocabulary words, they had 20 words a week at random out of the 400. It's simple, but it's crazy that you don't... People say, "How can you assess them on something you haven't taught yet? " You can, if you have a learning system. And then he said to build a scatter diagram and a class run chart. And let's look at those two just to review. The scatter diagram, and if you can't see this, it's just across the x-axis on the bottom. It says 1 to 14, which is for half a year. The y-axis goes from 0 to 10 because there are 10 questions every week in this classroom. And we have a dot by how many kids got 0 right, how many kids got 1 right, how many kids got 2 right. And if you look at over a semester, you can see all the dots moving from the lower left corner up to the upper right corner. So that's the scatter diagram.   0:04:29.7 Andrew Stotz: That's all the students in the class. That's not one individual student.   0:04:33.0 Lee Jenkins: That's not one student. It's the whole class because you're the manager of the learning of a classroom. He taught that. And then he said graph the total correct for the whole classroom.   0:04:46.6 Andrew Stotz: So you just did what he said.   0:04:49.8 Lee Jenkins: Yeah, add it up. It is simple and it is crazy. I mean, all the coaches who are listening to this know when you go to a game, you add up the total for every athlete. You add it up to get a total for the team. Then that same coach is in the classroom on Monday and they never think about that this is a team of learners. It's the same thing. Add it up. And they love it. And they help each other and they contribute and they celebrate when a struggling student helps the class out as much as a student that's advanced.   0:05:24.2 Andrew Stotz: Yeah. I mean we're social creatures, right? We want to be part of a group. We want to contribute. It's just such a clear principle.   0:05:35.0 Lee Jenkins: Yeah, it's simple. So then here's the expansion. Here's different things that happened over time with the process, and we'll share those with you. One was people said, well, ya know, my problem is not... It's partly they don't remember what I'm teaching well enough, but they clearly don't remember the prior courses. So this is a high school math teacher teaching geometry, and so she has half of her questions are coming from geometry because they're teaching geometry. But the other half of the questions come from the four courses they had in math prior because she knows they don't remember it. And then there's a secondary science department. The same thing. They said half of our questions for every quiz have to be from the prior courses, not just the current one. Because students think...   0:06:29.6 Andrew Stotz: Wow! That's fascinating. And before you go for that, so let's look at geometry. You've got these buckets. Before geometry is algebra two, and before that is algebra one, and before that's pre-algebra, and before that is math seven. I remember my pre-algebra class at school with Dr...Mr. Tyler. He was the football coach, and that guy was a slave driver. Even if you got the question wrong, if you structured your answering process right, you would get half points.   0:06:58.9 Lee Jenkins: Oh, okay. Yes.   0:06:59.6 Andrew Stotz: He helped me learn the structure and the order of solving algebra problems, but if I didn't do that well or I didn't have him as a teacher, I could end up in geometry not actually knowing that. But what the heck is this geometry teacher supposed to do if they find out that the class doesn't really understand some of the prior core principles?   0:07:21.7 Lee Jenkins: Well, they, obviously, they need to teach it, and so part of it they do. The other part of it is the kids don't want to forget the prior courses. If you just throw all these into a bucket and they don't say where it's from, they don't... Well, okay, I missed a question. But when you say, you're in 11th grade in geometry, and you missed the 7th grade question, they don't like that. So it builds, it's a visual. It's right in front of the room every day. They can see, I need to know all of this. And the science teacher is the same thing. The kids say, I'm in chemistry now. I don't need biology. Why do I need that? Until you see it right there in front of you every day, and you think, oh, I'm supposed to learn this.   0:08:12.9 Andrew Stotz: Gosh, it just brings me back to when I was in high school, and I really got frustrated because the pace was really fast, and I felt like I didn't fully understand the prior material, and now I'm on to the next. And that was, and I felt like I was building on a shaky foundation, and this is a part of addressing that.   0:08:33.7 Lee Jenkins: It is, absolutely. So that's one of the changes that was made. Teachers took and expanded that to the whole curriculum as opposed to only the course they're teaching.   0:08:43.0 Andrew Stotz: And just to think about that, is that in order to truly do that, you really want to have the math, the pre-algebra, the algebra, the algebra 2, and the geometry teachers all working on the same playbook.   0:08:56.2 Lee Jenkins: Yes, yes. And when we do make those lists for each class, there's no duplicates.   0:09:02.7 Andrew Stotz: Right.   0:09:04.3 Lee Jenkins: I mean, like with the science, I remember the biology teacher saying to the chemistry teacher, "You teach that? I teach that also." And they'd been teaching next door to each other for 10 years and didn't know it. So they have to say, who owns that one? So it's all a system that's tightly designed.   0:09:25.1 Andrew Stotz: And in the academic world of universities where I've taught, there's this thing that they want to give you independence to teach what you want in the way you want. I don't know about what's happening in schools these days, but is the curriculum pretty much set and therefore the teacher can't veer from that and therefore this would not be a problem? Or is it that, hey, every teacher's doing something different and it doesn't all work together?   0:09:53.6 Lee Jenkins: Right. What's the "what." The essen

    37 мин.

  3. 17.11.2025

    What is "Profound Knowledge"? An Insider's View of Deming's World (Part 4)

    Ever wondered what Dr. Deming really meant by "profound knowledge" — and how it can still transform your work today? In this conversation, Bill Scherkenbach shares with host Andrew Stotz lessons from Dr. W. Edwards Deming on profound knowledge, systems thinking, and why "knowledge without action is useless, and action without knowledge is dangerous." Tune in for wisdom, humor, and practical insights on learning, leadership, and finding joy in work. TRANSCRIPT 0:00:02.2 Andrew Stotz: My name is Andrew Stotz, and I'll be your host as we dive deeper into the teachings of Dr. W. Edwards Deming. Today, I'm continuing my discussion with Bill Scherkenbach, a dedicated protege of Dr. Deming since 1972. Bill met with Dr. Deming more than a thousand times and later led statistical methods and process improvement at Ford and GM at Deming's recommendation. He authored the Deming Route to Quality and Productivity at Deming's behest, and at 79, still champions his mentor's message, learn, have fun, and make a difference. Bill, how are you doing?   0:00:36.3 Bill Scherkenbach: Doing great, Andrew. How about you?   0:00:38.6 Andrew Stotz: I'm good. It's been a while since we talked. I took a little holiday to Italy, which was. I was out for a bit, but I'm happy to be back in the saddle.   0:00:48.9 Bill Scherkenbach: Dove in Italia?   0:00:51.3 Andrew Stotz: Yes.   0:00:52.5 Bill Scherkenbach: Where in Italy?   0:00:53.6 Andrew Stotz: Well, I went to Milan for a trade show in the coffee industry, and then I went to Lake Como and relaxed and oh, what a paradise.   0:01:03.2 Bill Scherkenbach: Beautiful. Beautiful. Yep.   0:01:05.0 Andrew Stotz: And, of course, always great food.   0:01:09.4 Bill Scherkenbach: Yep, yep, yep. Well, you have a chance to use the PDSA on improving your mood there.   0:01:16.6 Andrew Stotz: Yeah, it was just... The resort I stayed at was a tiny little place on the side of a hill, and the food at this tiny little place was fantastic. We just didn't want to leave. Every single meal was great. So I love that. Who doesn't love that?   0:01:34.4 Bill Scherkenbach: They didn't have a food cart in the background.   0:01:38.0 Andrew Stotz: Yeah. In fact, they didn't really open for lunch.   0:01:39.8 Bill Scherkenbach: Like what they do over here.   0:01:41.3 Andrew Stotz: Yeah, they didn't open for lunch. They only served sandwiches at 2pm so we had to hold out. But we still, the sandwich was so good. We just thought yeah, just wait.   0:01:51.3 Bill Scherkenbach: Early lunch. Yep.   0:01:53.3 Andrew Stotz: Well, you've got some interesting stuff to talk about today, and I'm gonna share the screen, and then I think we can kick it off from there. So let me see if I can get that up straight here. One second in. All right, so hopefully, you see a white screen that says profound knowledge. You see that, Bill?   0:02:16.0 Bill Scherkenbach: Yes, I do.   0:02:17.2 Andrew Stotz: All right, well, let's... Yeah, let's. Let's get into it.   0:02:23.2 Bill Scherkenbach: Oh, okay. I'll go from the bullets that I've got, and we'll hear from Dr. Deming and how he couched it in a little bit, in a few minutes, but he recognized that leaders would say they had the knowledge. Oh, yeah, we do SPC. We follow Deming's philosophy, we do that. But they really only knew the buzzwords. And to an extent, and I don't know how he came up with the word profound, but I do know in speaking with him that he intended it to be a degree of expertise that was beyond the buzzwords. Now, he said you didn't have to be an expert in it, but you had to know enough to be able to understand it and in fact, use it, as we'll talk about in a little bit. And knowledge obviously includes, as he said, an appreciation for a system and variation and knowledge and psychology. And as we'll hear in the audio, he also didn't really limited to that when he said there was there... His point, main point was that there are a whole bunch of interrelated subject matters that are very, very useful in managing your business or managing any organization.   0:04:17.1 Andrew Stotz: You know, I was thinking about that word profound. It's oftentimes wondering exactly what is meant by that. This is helpful to help us understand. It's, number one, about expertise. And I think the thing that I've always also felt is like, when you understand appreciation for a system, knowledge about variation, theory of knowledge and psychology, it, like things click, like it comes together, it's a whole. And that's the way I've thought about it. But that's interesting about the expertise aspect.   0:04:51.8 Bill Scherkenbach: Yeah. And that's something Don Peterson at Ford spoke about. He gave a very good talk to our leaders with Dr. Deming in attendance. And he said that a lot of you have said, "Oh, yeah, we already do this at Ford, " but you have to come to grips with a lot of you have been promoted for perhaps the wrong reason throughout your career, and you're gonna have to change. The change starts with us. So that was very impactful for Dr. Deming to listen to that.   0:05:32.7 Andrew Stotz: Yeah. And I just thought about the idea of profound action. Like, once you get this knowledge, does that mean that you're going to also, you know, the way that you do things is going to change substantially.   0:05:47.3 Bill Scherkenbach: Yeah. I mean, that's been a philosophical question. In one of the slides, I quote Confucius. About 2500 years ago, essentially saying knowledge without action is useless and the action without knowledge is pretty dangerous. But that's been consistent with Eastern and Western. Aristotle did the same thing, and Mid Eastern folks did it as well. Philosophers dealing with, yeah, we've got knowledge, but everyone agrees, at least in the good thinker role, that, that you've got to take action, otherwise it's useless. Okay, so we've got, and the subject matters, as I said, are not new. And he coalesced on four, but the general thought was that. And you've got to remember Dr. Deming was a classically trained physicist in the 1920s. And because of that a lot of, although it had been a few years, but they were very aware that everything started in the both, the eastern philosophies and western philosophies. Everything started with philosophy. Science wasn't a separate subject matter. And so everything was connected on how people should live, on how the stars move, a whole bunch of stuff. It all was philosophy. And these various subject matters evolved over the years.   0:07:50.6 Bill Scherkenbach: So even though he stopped it for his general intent was that a whole bunch of things are interconnected. If you go study these various subject matters.   0:08:05.1 Andrew Stotz: It's interesting because I attended the seminars in 1990, 1992 and then I went to Thailand and then I did other things and I didn't really keep up with it because I was in the financial world and doing my thing. And then I got The New Economics years later and there was this discussion about System of Profound Knowledge. And then I think about also going back to your previous discussions of what it was like being in a classroom with Dr. Deming when you first met him and studied with him. You know, that these things were going on. Obviously he had a deep understanding of variation. He definitely understood about the theory of knowledge from his scientific background. But I'm just curious, as you... It's interesting what you said, these things are not new. It's the way he brought them together. I just find that, that fascinating. How do you see that journey for him going from when you first met him to a very full formed concept or theory of profound knowledge at his later years?   0:09:15.3 Bill Scherkenbach: Yeah, I think things just solidified or codified. I mean, when I first met him in '72 at New York University Graduate School of Business, he didn't have 14 Points. He didn't have the Deadly Diseases. So none of the stuff that were codified as he progressed. I mean the one thing that I've mentioned it a number of times, the most important thing I learned from him is that you never stop learning. And he epitomized that sense of continual learning in improving oneself. So he tried to learn from everyone. But, but yes, for instance, as I mentioned, he was a degreed physicist and ended up doing a whole bunch of. And that transitioned into statistics which was a relatively. Well, I'm going to say everything is relative. But new in operationalizing the use of statistics besides counting people and the experiments at Rothamstead for agriculture. I mean, that really was some of the... But the earlier stuff, yeah. Was helping their patrons gamble better.   0:11:02.0 Andrew Stotz: And so I often take comfort in your descriptions in the first episodes about how he hadn't put all of these things in place at the age of 72. And I think there's still hope for me, Bill, to figure it out and put together my grand thinking.   0:11:22.7 Bill Scherkenbach: Yeah. Oh, no, I understand. I mean, I'll be 80 in less than six months. But he really, he started out getting his foot in the water here anyway when he was 79 also. So there's a chance. There's a chance.   0:11:46.4 Andrew Stotz: There's a chance. All right, well, the next slide, you're talking about the connections.   0:11:51.6 Bill Scherkenbach: Yeah. Again, all the subject matters are, again, evolve from philosophy and they all are interconnected in many, many ways. So, yeah, if you could play what Dr. Deming's introducing, that might set the stage.   0:12:14.0 Andrew Stotz: Okay, let me play this audio. Hopefully it comes across. Okay.   [video playback] Dr. Deming: Let us begin our study of Profound Knowledge. Profound Knowledge. Provides a roadmap to transformation, not just change, but a roadmap to transformation. Nothing else will satisfy our needs. Not just cha

    59 мин.

  4. 10.11.2025

    A Smarter Way to Set Goals

    Are you looking for smarter, more sustainable improvements? In this episode, John Dues joins Andrew Stotz to challenge the way schools - and businesses - set goals. Instead of chasing stretch targets that often frustrate teachers and students alike, John shows how to use data and systems thinking to create real improvement. TRANSCRIPT 0:00:02.2 Andrew Stotz: My name is Andrew Stotz, and I'll be your host as we dive deeper into the teachings of Dr. W. Edwards Deming. Today, I'm continuing my discussion with John Dues, who is part of the new generation of educators striving to apply Dr. Deming's principles to unleash student joy in learning. The topic for today is how to set educational goals. Take it away, John.   0:00:25.6 John Dues: Hey, Andrew. It's good to be back. Yeah. So the thing that I see just over and over again is that goal setting in schools is just really ineffective. And not only that, but it's often counterproductive. So I thought it'd be good to talk about a different approach to how to set educational goals. I think most typically what I see, and this is probably not just true in schools, but in other places too, you get some result, and then you set a goal to increase by 10 or 15 or 20%. But I think that what often is missed is that without certain conditions in place, these stretch goals end up disconnected from reality. And so what I wanted to do in this session is to teach three conditions that I believe will lead to much more effective goal setting.   0:01:20.8 Andrew Stotz: It's interesting because goal setting seems really simple, like, just set a goal and go get it.   0:01:29.1 John Dues: Yeah.   0:01:29.5 Andrew Stotz: And yet when you're... You say that it's simple as an individual that I'm going to go walking every morning. That's my goal. It seems simple as an individual, but when it gets to a company level, it can get really complex, or a school level. And also there's this... What did you call it? Like aspirational... Or what was the word? Stretch, stretch goal. It's so common, particularly when business is not going great. Like, I want this from this team, and it's just so common to say, to lay down demands. I want 20% revenue growth. I want students passing this by 70% or whatever. And yet it just doesn't work that way. And so I'm looking forward to hearing from you about your three conditions. So let's go.   0:02:23.1 John Dues: Yeah, sounds good. So let's start by looking at why I don't think stretch goals are helpful. And since I'm working in schools, I like using data that people are familiar with. So I'll use this third grade reading state test score data. It's very common. It's really important. There's often some guarantee around third grade reading scores or there's often high stakes attached to third grade reading. So I'll use that. And so let's say in year one, and this is actually real data, 54.9% of third graders scored proficient or higher on that test. And then in the next year, they score 63.8% of the third graders scored proficient or higher. So in most places, leaders and teachers would celebrate because that represents an 8.9% increase in proficiency rates. And so then they do something like set a stretch goal of, well, next year we're going to grow by 20%. So you think, well, we grew by nearly 9%, so we can surely hit 20%. But then what often happens in a situation like this is that the next year's data comes out and actually goes down.   0:03:41.4 John Dues: And that's exactly what happened in year three of this data. Now, in this third year, only 61.2% of the students scored proficient or higher. And so then you think to yourself, well, what stretch goal would I set next? Would you change that 20% goal because of the decreased rates in the most recent year? So it actually is an interesting exercise. If you're listening to this, actually get a number in your head. You're the school leader, you're the superintendent, you're the principal or whatever, think about what goal then would you set for this group. So they grew by almost 9% and they went down by a couple percent. Between year one and two, they set the goal of 20%. Now what are you going to do? What's the goal? What are you going to say?   0:04:36.2 Andrew Stotz: And I'm thinking about the tampering concept that Dr. Deming talks about, constantly adjusting based upon where you're at. And it's interesting because in that case, you may say, you know, a disappointing year, but we've got to stick to our 20%. We got to stick to our strong, we can't give up. Remember that celebration we had?   0:05:01.0 John Dues: Yeah, this is a one year blip. We had increased by nearly 10. I know we can do it if we just double down. Let's keep that 20% goal in place. Yeah, that's definitely what a lot of people would do. So let me show you the results for those three years and then what happened for the next several years after that. So I'll share my screen for those that are watching so they can see this actual data in chart form.   0:05:27.7 Andrew Stotz: Great. Yep, we can see that.   0:05:29.8 John Dues: You can see it. All right. So now we have nine years of test data, and we can see that setting that early stretch goal had no effect whatsoever on outcomes. And so in year one, we had that 54.9% of those third graders were proficient. Then we went up to 63.8 like we said. Then we dipped back down in year three to 61.2, and then in the subsequent years that we're looking at now, it jumped up to 60.7, and then it fell to 51.9, and then it jumped up to 59.8, and then it rose again to 62.3, and then it rose again to 64.5, and then it fell again to 61.3. So again, between year one and two is when we set that stretch goal of 20%, and we can see again that it had no effect on outcome. So really, in all likelihood, the goal was not only ineffective back there between year one and two, but it was likely counterproductive. Because if you're thinking about, if you're a teacher in this school, you're teaching third grade or you're the principal of the school, year after year, this team didn't come close to approaching that 20% stretch goal that had been set.   0:06:52.8 John Dues: Year one, year two, year three, all the way through year nine. Some years the scores go up, some years the scores go down. It's pretty demoralizing if you think about it. I think the good news is, and the reason we're having this conversation is I think there's a better method for understanding your data and then using that data to set school goals in a smarter way. So I'll introduce these three conditions. I think about them as three conditions of healthy goal setting. So the first thing that you want to do is gather baseline data in the area that you're interested in improving. So this could be historical results if you have data, or it might be new data that you need to collect if this is a new focus area. But either way, you need some type of baseline as a starting point, and then you can work to understand these three conditions.   0:07:55.9 John Dues: So the first condition, condition one is what I call the capability of the system under study. And by system under study, in this case, I just mean the third grade reading test data. So how capable is it? Condition two is the variation of that system under study. And then condition three is the stability of that system under study. So those are the three conditions that I'm interested in taking a look at. And this focus could be on any data that occurs across time. It could be like state test scores, like we're looking at here. Could be attendance rates, could be oral reading fluency rates for those elementary teachers. It could be the number of office referrals that are coming into the principal's office or assistant principal's office on a daily or weekly basis. For this example, I'll just keep using the third grade state testing data.   0:08:52.8 Andrew Stotz: And let's just go through that just to review. So you talked about gathering baseline data. So you got to figure out what's happening here. The second thing, the first thing then you talked about, step one is capability of the system under study. And what does the word capability mean?   0:09:10.5 John Dues: Yeah, we'll get into each of them and then define each one.   0:09:12.0 Andrew Stotz: And then the second one is the variation of that system. Okay. Now what I noticed in all of these as you're talking about system, third one is stability of the system. So I guess a big part of this is basically saying if you're not looking at it as a system, you're not going to have the success that you want to have. So that's certainly a reinforced point there. Okay, keep going.   0:09:38.1 John Dues: Yeah. And by system, I just mean there's all these inputs into the third grade reading test, and then there's things that we do in schools, and then there's an outcome, there's an output that happens. So that's why I'm calling this third grade reading state testing data system, basically. So the first thing that I've done is taken that data that we've been looking at in a table and I put it into what I call a process behavior chart. Other people call a control chart or Shewhart chart. We've talked about those charts here, and I've done that so that we can better analyze those three conditions. So this charting method allows us to do that. So can you see the chart now?   0:10:22.6 Andrew Stotz: Yep. And for the audience, we have a chart up on the screen, third grade English language arts test, state testing proficiency rates. And maybe you want to describe what you got in the chart.   0:10:36.1 John Dues: Yeah, so it's the same data that was in the table, but now I've just taken it and plotted it. And that's what the blue dots are. So for each year, which is running along the bottom of the chart of the x-axis, there's a year, year one through nine. Those all represent school years. And on the y-axi

    30 мин.

  5. 13.10.2025

    Dr. Deming's Advice to Educators: Crazy Simple Education (Part 1)

    What if learning could feel like a team sport instead of a pressure test? Lyle "Lee" Jenkins, PhD., a longtime educator, shares how a chance encounter led him to a Deming conference specifically for educators in 1992, which transformed his thinking. Deming emphasized defining learning outcomes, rejecting numerical goals, and avoiding ranking. Lee explains how Deming methods prevent "cram and forget", celebrate small wins, and rekindle students' natural love of learning. (Lee shared a powerpoint during the episode, which you can find on our website.) TRANSCRIPT 0:00:02.3 Andrew Stotz: My name is Andrew Stotz, and I'll be your host as we continue our journey into the teachings of Dr. W. Edwards Deming. Today I'm talking with Lee Jenkins, who is a career educator in public school, ending his career as a school district superintendent. It was as a superintendent that he was introduced to the teachings of Dr. Deming, and he has been applying it to his life and work since then. In his business, Crazy Simple Education, he publishes books and schedules speaking engagements. Lee, how you doing?   0:00:38.4 Lee Jenkins: I am doing just great, Andrew. Yeah, this has been fun to put together. And just to highlight, I haven't done this before, just to highlight just simply what Deming taught. We've obviously, over the years added other things, but today we're just talking about what did he teach, just the pure form of it and our implementation of that.   0:01:01.6 Andrew Stotz: Yeah. And I think you and I have already met once and gone through this. It's pretty interesting, you know, I think what I enjoyed about our discussion, truthfully, what I liked, was your energy and the energy about the teachings of Deming and how we can apply that. And so I'm looking forward to seeing you bring that to the audience. Now, for those that are listening, we're going to have... Lee's got a PowerPoint and a presentation he's going to share, but we'll walk you through it. It's not like it's full of very complicated things. So, Lee, why don't you take us through a little bit about what you've prepared here?   0:01:38.3 Lee Jenkins: Okay, I can do that, Andrew. I was like anybody else as a school superintendent. I went to a meeting of the Association of School Administrators. I can't even tell you what city or state it was in, but I was there. And while I was in the hallway between sessions, Lew Rhodes, who worked for AASA, he came up and he said, "Lee, I think you'll enjoy this next session." And that's why I've called this, One-Minute Invite That Changed My Life. So I went in and no idea, I just liked Lew. I trusted him. And it was David Langford's an administrator. And that's how I was introduced to Deming and spent a lot of time after that, reading everything I could get my hands on and absorbed it. And I knew that he was correct in how organizations are operating. And so that intrigued me a great deal. But it was the same information that he shared with all organizations. I just took them and applied them to education. But then two years later, in 1992, American Association of School Administrators, under... With Lew Rhodes' leadership, sponsored a Deming conference. So I went to Washington, DC in January that year to hear him speak.   0:03:20.2 Lee Jenkins: We were there four days. He was assisted and was a part of it for two days. And for two days it was him on stage, the red beads, you know, all the things that listeners know about with Dr. Deming. And I would say that the first part of it was the things you would normally expect to hear. Now, understand, the audience here was educators. And I know there were educators sprinkled in his audiences in his whole speaking career. I know that. I wasn't one of them, but I know that. This was one that was specifically for educators. And nobody's told me any other time when he spoke to educators as the audience. So, but just things he'd say that we've all heard.   0:04:13.7 Lee Jenkins: Best efforts are not enough, you have to have knowledge, you have to have theory. He said too, you can't delegate quality. And I had school superintendents doing that all the time. You ask them about, anything about teaching or learning, they say, oh, no, I'm not involved in teaching and learning. I have an assistant superintendent for instruction. In other words, they've delegated quality. Deming talked about wasting time and wasting money in all organizations, and certainly schools are good at that. I'm going to talk at the end of this, how I took it onto one other point which is similar to what he's talked about also. The losses of the current system. He said in one place that, for 50 years... Now, he said this in the '90s, but for 50 years, America has been asking for better education without a definition of what better education is. And...   0:05:10.5 Andrew Stotz: That reminds me of talking to Bill Scherkenbach, who showed a picture of him, Dr. Deming, in the old days at an event of national teachers, and he said they really couldn't come up with a conclusion about what was the aim. [laughter]   0:05:25.9 Lee Jenkins: Yes, right. It's... Yeah, okay. And then he described fear, brings about wrong figures. So what did our government do? No Child Left Behind, which says, you increase your reading scores or your math scores or we're going to fire you. Well, then you get wrong numbers. That's what he predicted, that numerical goals are a failure. I had a discussion with a pastor several years ago and he said, "Our goal is to have 2,000 people in attendance on Easter Sunday." I said, "Okay, what's the best we've had so far?" "It was around 1800." "Okay, what happens if we have 1900 on Easter Sunday, the best ever? What do we do?" Well, it kind of caused him to think, which is my purpose. It wasn't to be critical, it was to get him to think. You could do your best ever but call yourself a failure because you didn't meet this artificial number. And I can hear Deming talking about just pulling the number out of the air. And that ranking is a failure. We rank and rank and rank in schools. I've got a granddaughter in first grade. School has just started. She's student of the month in her class, which means there's 19 failures of the month. I mean, Deming, it's just sad to see that it's still going on. But then Dr. Deming, I don't think it was in... It wasn't in his PowerPoint. Not even a PowerPoint. We had transparencies.   0:07:12.0 Andrew Stotz: Acetates.   0:07:12.6 Lee Jenkins: It wasn't in his transparencies. It wasn't in the handouts. But it's like he went on this little tangent and that's what has captivated my career, his tangent. And it was Dr. Deming, the statistician, talking about the classroom. So I'm going to go through what he said, just as he said, point by point. He said, number one, tell the students what they will learn this year. Now, when I share this with people, they say, oh, yeah, our college professors had syllabuses. I said, no, no, a syllabus is what the professor is going to teach. Dr. Deming talked about, what are they going to learn? They're two different things. What are you going to learn? And you give it to them. And we've done this pre-K, kindergarten all the way to grade 12 and a little bit of work at universities.   0:08:14.6 Andrew Stotz: And how detailed do you go on that? I see you're showing concept one to concept 19. Is it, you know, this is everything you're going to learn, or this is generally what you're going to learn?   0:08:26.5 Lee Jenkins: Well, this is a partial list. So it's the essential.   0:08:31.6 Andrew Stotz: Yep.   0:08:32.6 Lee Jenkins: I tell people, put down what's essential. Do not put trivia on the list. Now, of course you teach trivia. It's interesting, it's fun, but they're not accountable for it. And so it's what students have been asking for for years. What am I supposed to learn this year? I don't know how to study for the exam. I don't know what's important. I was at a... Doing a seminar for teachers in Missouri. And I said, "I wasn't a good test taker in college. Were some of you?" And a lady raised her hand and said, "Oh yeah, I was really good at it." I said, "How did it work?" She said, "Well, I was in a study committee and by design, half of our time was sharing our insights as we psyched out the professor. And then once we agreed on what was important and the personality of that professor, then we studied that." That's nonsense. Here's Dr. Deming saying, just tell them what you want them to learn, it's so simple.   0:09:47.0 Andrew Stotz: In the world of teaching, we often talk about learning outcome statements at the beginning of a lecture.   0:09:55.6 Lee Jenkins: Yeah.   0:09:56.5 Andrew Stotz: And I know, for instance, with CFA for Chartered Financial Analysts, they have very clear learning outcome statements and then they have a whole section that they teach and it's self study. And then you take an exam. Is that... Is learning outcome statement the same thing or is this something different?   0:10:13.0 Lee Jenkins: I would say it's the same. It's very, very close. It's same in general terms. Exactly. We're not talking about how it's going to be taught, only that it's going to be learned. Okay, the next thing Dr. Deming said to do... And by the way, before we leave, make sure this is a partial list. If I put the whole year's list on there, it's so small nobody could read it on the screen. Okay, next he said, give the students an exam every week on a random sample from the whole course. Said if, for example, you had a 100 concepts on your list, they would take a quiz on 10 of them each week, randomly selected.   0:11:02.6 Andrew Stotz: This is so mind blowing. Go ahead, keep going.   0:11:07.7 Lee Jenkins: Yes, because... So what do we do now in schools? We do cram, get a grade, forget. That's the most common thing in American education. Cram, get a grade, forget. Have a f

    43 мин.

  6. 22.09.2025

    A Leadership Playbook: An Insider's View of Deming's World (Part 3)

    Great leaders know there's no one-size-fits-all formula. In this episode, Bill Scherkenbach and Andrew Stotz discuss practical lessons on how to connect with people on physical, logical, and emotional levels to truly get things done.  Discover why balancing "me" and "we" is the secret to lasting results—and why empathy might be your most powerful leadership tool. Tune in now and start rewriting your own leadership playbook. (You can view the slides from the podcast here.) TRANSCRIPT 0:00:02.1 Andrew Stotz: My name is Andrew Stotz, and I'll be your host as we dive deeper into the teachings of Dr. W. Edwards Deming. Today, I'm continuing my discussion with Bill Scherkenbach, a dedicated protégé of Dr. Deming since 1972. Bill met with Dr. Deming more than a thousand times and later led statistical methods and process improvements at Ford and GM at Deming's recommendation. He authored The Deming Route to Quality and Productivity at Deming's behest, and at 79, still champions his mentor's message, "learn, have fun, and make a difference." And the episode today is Getting Things Done. Bill, take it away.   0:00:41.5 Bill Scherkenbach: Okay, Andrew. We will get 'er done today. The reason I put that on there is that in many of his seminars, Deming said that, "I am not a businessman and not trying to be one." But you need to think about these things. And his approach really was to improving organizations was to put people who he thought were masters of his teachings into organizations, and they would be there full time to facilitate the transformation when he wasn't there, such as Ford and GM and a few other companies. There were a few of us who he trusted to be able to be there to get things done. And I'm reminded of the philosopher, the Asian, Chinese philosopher, Mencius, and I'll read it there. It says, "Don't suspect that the king lacks wisdom. Even in the cases of things that grow most easily in the world, they would never grow up if they were exposed to sunshine for one day and then to cold for 10 days. And it's seldom that I have an audience with the king. And when I leave others who exposed him to cold arrive, even if what I say to him is taking root, what good does it do?"   0:02:35.7 Bill Scherkenbach: And quite honestly, that's the lament of every consultant trying to get stuff done in today's world, in Western style management. And so one of the things in this slide, the framework for getting things done, for having fun learning and making a difference, is one of the two, I think, major contributions I do say that I've made to the profession of quality. And that is using this Venn diagram to be able to show that even though other people have used other terms for physical, logical, and emotional, that there usually have been holy wars being fought by people who say, "Well, emotional is better. That's how you get stuff done." And other people saying logic and other people saying physical. And in fact, I think in the last time we spoke, the three major gurus of quality were those ships sailing in the night. Dr. Deming was the epitome of logical thinking, whereas Phil Crosby was looking for the wine and cheese parties and the emotional sell part of it. And Joe Duran was looking at physical, how are you going to organize to get stuff done? Now, they all had their followers who were pretty much on those frequencies, and they reached people in other frequencies. I came up with this idea for the Venn diagram to show no hierarchy, I guess back in 1987, something like that.   0:04:49.3 Andrew Stotz: And for the listeners out there, we're looking at a diagram that shows one circle that says physical, that's interlocked with another one that says logical, and then there's a third, a Venn diagram, that third is emotional. And so those are the three pillars that Bill's talking about. All right, keep going, because you got stuff in the middle too, which is interesting.   0:05:16.1 Bill Scherkenbach: And the thing is that I based it primarily at the time in the mid-60s, there was a theory of brain structure called the triune brain. Now, and it was the limbic system, the neocortex, and the R-complex. And pretty much followed the logical, emotional, physical words that I'm using. Now, our understanding of the brain in the decades up through now, it's a little bit more complicated than that. But physical, logical, and emotional is in all of us. In our body, I mean, the latest looks at neural connections extend to your gut. And nerves are just about everywhere and connected, and that the way the brain works is still not even fully, not begun to be fully understood. Having said that, in order to get stuff done, this Venn diagram shows very, very simply that the intersection of physical and logical, I put as science. It's the logical explanation of physical phenomenon. And the intersection of logical and emotional is psychology, logic of the soul. And the intersection of emotional and physical is art. All art is is the emotional interpretation of sensory input, whether it's a great meal, whether it's a Mona Lisa picture.   0:07:27.9 Bill Scherkenbach: But what will make one person absolutely swoon will make another person barf. So it's all personal, but it's physical, logical, and emotional is in all of us. And in the center, we're looking at what Eastern philosophies call harmony, where all of these are working together. And Western philosophies would call them peak experiences. And it's where the whole can be a lot greater than the sum of its parts, but with some slight changes can be a whole lot less than the sum of its parts.   0:08:14.3 Andrew Stotz: Great. I like the harmony in the middle. That's the challenge, really. Now, just out of curiosity, is harmony the goal? Is that what you're thinking with that being at the center? Or what is the meaning of harmony being in the middle?   0:08:28.0 Bill Scherkenbach: Yeah. When I apply this to the individual, harmony would be the goal. When I'm applying it to an organization, the larger an organization grows, the more you really need to use this overarching approach. And the reason I say that is, and it doesn't happen all the time, but most of the time when we're starting up a company, you want to surround yourself with fine people just like yourself. And so if you have a particular way of getting stuff done, you're going to hire people or surround yourself with people that are just like that, and everything is fine. But the more you grow the company, the more you're going to get people that are absolutely vital to your organization that aren't on those frequencies. And certainly, if you're in international business, you're trying to sell things to the world that in the larger the group of people, the more you have to be broadcasting on the physical, logical, and emotional frequencies. I mean, one of the first things that I did at GM when I joined was looked at the policy letters that Alfred Sloan wrote. And Sloan, it was very interesting because in any policy, Sloan had a paragraph that said, "make no mistake about it, this is what we're going to do."   0:10:31.8 Bill Scherkenbach: That's a physical frequency. In the Navy, it's shut up and fly wing. And so make no mistake about it, this is our policy. The second paragraph had, well, this is a little bit why we're doing it. And to be able to get the, and I don't know whether he was thinking that, but to my mind, it was brilliant. He was explained things. And the third paragraph or so in the policy letter was something that would instill the GM spirit, that there's something to do with the values. Hugely, hugely prescient in my viewpoint, but he's Sloan, I'm me, so he knew what he was doing.   0:11:29.9 Andrew Stotz: For people that don't know Alfred Sloan, he took over and was running General Motors at the time when Ford had, I don't know, 50% of the market share by producing one vehicle. And part of the brilliance of Sloan was the idea of building a lineup of different brands that went from the low all the way up to the high of Cadillac. And within a short period of time, he managed to flip things and grab the majority of the market share from Ford at the time, as I recall. Now, I don't recall it from being there, but I recall from reading about it.   0:12:12.3 Bill Scherkenbach: There you go. There you go. Yeah, having saying that, he offered those by buying the various little auto companies, littler auto companies to put that conglomerate together. But as people who have read my works, specifically my second book, The Deming's Road to Continual Improvement, this change philosophy is in there. And as I said, that's one of, I think, my major contributions to the field of quality. The other one being in a process model back in '86, we also were learning about Taguchi, Genichi Taguchi's approach to customers and the loss function, and he used the title or the terminology voice of the customer. And it occurred to me in our process definition, there was something called the voice of the process to go along. And so the voice, I introduced the voice of the process, and the job of anyone is to reduce the gap between the voice of the customer and the voice of the process. And I mentioned that because this matrix that we're showing now has physical, logical, and emotional, and the various process states that you could be in, there's a dependent state where you're completely dependent upon your customers or suppliers.   0:14:00.9 Bill Scherkenbach: There's an independent state where it's just you and an interdependent state. And I have that cross-reference with physical, logical, and emotional. In dependent state, it's essentially feed me, teach me, love me, do it for me, teach me, and love me. Now, in the independent, it's, I do it, I understand what I do, and I take great joy in doing what I do. And in the interdependent is, we do it. I understand how what I do helps optimize our process, and

    52 мин.

  7. 15.09.2025

    Making Data Work for You

    What is your data trying to tell you? In this episode, John Dues talks to Andrew Stotz about why most leaders misread data, overreact to single results, and miss the real story. Discover how Deming thinking exposes when change is truly happening and how to use a process behavior chart to listen to the real story. Plus, find out why nine years of 'stable' results may still demand transformation. Tune in and rethink data-driven leadership!    0:00:02.2 Andrew Stotz: My name is Andrew Stotz, and I'll be your host as we dive deeper into the teachings of Dr. W. Edwards Deming. Today, I'm continuing my discussion with John Dues, who is part of the new generation of educators striving to apply Dr. Deming's principles to unleash student joy in learning. The topic for today is understanding variation is the key to data analysis. John, take it away.   0:00:27.8 John Dues: Andrew, it's good to be back. Yeah. So, we've just started the school year in Ohio, so I thought doing a session on goal setting would be a good place to kick off the year. And I was thinking a lot of leaders, school leaders and leaders in general, are setting goals around this time period. And I was really thinking about having this Deming lens. I was thinking, how did I set goals before I sort of started understanding this approach? And it's, you know, this is one of those things where if you really stop and think about it, goal setting is a lot harder than it seems at first glance. Things like, how do you set a reasonable goal? And then once you've gotten to that place, how do you know if things are improving? How do you know if things are getting worse? And I was thinking how powerful this understanding variation method is for folks that may be struggling with those questions.   0:01:32.9 Andrew Stotz: Yeah. In fact, that's a great question for the listener and the viewer. Like, how do you set goals? How did you set goals in the past? How have you improved that? And I was thinking when you were speaking, I didn't set goals. I gave proclamations. You know, 20% of I want to see this and that. And they were just stretch targets without any means or methods. So yeah, interesting.   0:01:55.2 John Dues: Yeah. How do you set the target? Was it arbitrary? Is it based on some standard that you heard somewhere? A lot of times you have no idea sort of what's behind that target or you've sort of associated it to something that's familiar. Like in my case, we often sort of set goals that sort of mimic the grade scale. So, you know, 80% is a common goal for something like test scores, you know.   0:02:23.7 Andrew Stotz: But they don't even call them goals anymore. They call them, let me remember, I think it's called KPIs.   0:02:30.0 John Dues: KPIs, targets, you know, lots of different things for sure. And I think what I've seen is that a lot of the reason that goal setting is so hard is because you, well, one, you misinterpret your data in the first place. And a lot of that misinterpretation, at least in the education sector, is because leaders don't have the knowledge. They don't know about natural variation. They're typically making comparisons between some current performance level, some previous value. But those two things, those two data points don't show you, don't convey the behavior of that data across time. So, what we do and what I did before I sort of discovered this method is you overreact to a single data point. Probably less frequently, you underreact to the data because you don't have this understanding of, you know, how much is the data moving up and down sort of naturally almost no matter what you're doing. Now, that's not always the case, but that's the case that I've found in a lot of situations. And so until you start to take that into account, those natural ups and downs, then you just misinterpret the data over and over again, usually by overreacting is what I've seen.   0:03:54.9 Andrew Stotz: Yeah.   0:03:56.0 John Dues: So there's, you know, I think as a starting point, people in the Deming community will be familiar with, a lot of people. But others listening to this probably have never heard of this idea of dividing variation into, I've heard it described as like two flavors. There's the routine variation, what I call natural variation, things vary naturally no matter what you're doing. And then there's exceptional variation where things are so different that there is reason to pay attention to this. And what I found through studying this is, the key is knowing how to tell the difference between those two types of variation. And don't do that, lots of confusion, lots of wasted effort. And so that's really where the power of this methodology comes into play. And for anybody that's studied this, you sort of realize that you have to have a tool to make that differentiation. It's not arbitrary. And so that's where what I call the process behavior chart, some people call the control chart, where that comes into play because that tool allows us to tell what type of variation is present. And it also allows us to tell if the system is predictable or unpredictable. And once we have that understanding, then we can chart an improvement sort of roadmap that makes sense.   0:05:21.8 Andrew Stotz: Yeah. In fact, I've applied two of the things, you know, one of the things to my pass rates and admission rates, I applied the process chart, the control chart, based upon your recommendation a long time ago. And it did help me to kind of think if, you know, in my case, I wanted to break out of that standard outcome that I was getting. And so I realized, something has to change substantially in the system in order to get a different result than this variation that I was getting. That was the first thing. And then the second one, a couple of nights ago, I was giving a lecture and I was using your work that you and I have talked about, as well as Mike Rother's stuff on goal setting and having the target. And then there's that obstacle. And what I realized when I gave a little talk on it and I used the diagram and I showed the obstacle, it became kind of apparent to everybody like, oh, yeah, there's an obstacle there that we don't know how to solve.   0:06:27.6 John Dues: Yeah.   0:06:28.3 Andrew Stotz: And that's where PDSA came in. And we started talking about that, as you have taught previously. So, yeah, I'm excited to hear what you have to say today.   0:06:38.2 John Dues: Yeah. And the Mike Rother model, I mean, he does have this target that's this long term target that's pretty hard to hit. And you don't really know what you're going to do. But the difference there then in the situation I'm describing is that that in Mike's model, that target is knowingly outside of the current sort of capability of the system. And they're coming together as a team and saying, how do we get to that target six months from now or a year from now? And we're working towards that rather than someone has just arbitrarily set some target, without a realization that the system isn't capable of hitting that currently. Those are two completely different scenarios. Yeah. So, I think I'll share my screen. Well, actually, before I do that, I would just say, too, because I know sometimes when I introduce these things, a lot of times people get scared away because they think the math is hard. And what I would say there is that there's the creation of a process behavior chart probably takes about fourth grade level math skills. You really only need to do addition, subtraction, multiplication, and division.   0:07:49.3 John Dues: That's it. But the thinking, I think, actually can be taught all the way down to the kindergarten level. And I've actually seen kindergartners explain the data on a process behavior chart. So, if anybody gets scared away at this part, the math is simple and the thinking is also pretty simple and powerful once you sort of have the basics. So, I'll go ahead and share my screen so the folks that are watching have a visual to follow along on. And for those that don't, I'll do my best to describe it. When we're talking about a process behavior chart, and this one's sort of an annotated version so that things are clear. But basically a process behavior chart is just a time sequence chart. It has upper and lower natural process limits, and we plot data for some measure that we're interested in. And the chart typically has a central line so that we can detect a trend of those plotted values toward perhaps either limit. So, this particular chart, the data is the percent of students who scored proficient or higher on the Ohio third grade reading state tests from spring 2004 through 2015.    0:09:06.8 John Dues: So, I've labeled sort of some of those key parts of the chart. So, just kind of call those out. Again, the red lines are the lower and upper natural process limits, sort of bound where you'd expect the data to be in a stable system.   0:09:21.1 Andrew Stotz: And those are 1, 2, 3 standard deviations or what?   0:09:28.1 John Dues: Well, this particular chart, it's what I call a process behavior chart. So it's actually, it's not standard deviation. It's based on a measure of dispersion called the moving range. And then there's a formula that smarter people than me figured out sort of how to use that moving range to set the red lines. But the important thing to know about the limits is that they're set empirically. And that just means that they're based on the data. And so they are where they are, not where I want them to be necessarily. I don't get to choose where they are, how wide they are, where they're placed numerically is based on the data itself. And then that green center line for this particular chart is the average of all the blue dots. And then the blue dots is each year of, again, testing data.   0:10:19.4 Andrew Stotz: 2004 to 2015 as the x-axis, yep.   0:10:27.0 John Dues: Yeah. So, you

    38 мин.
  8. A Deming Approach to Real Estate

    19.08.2025

    A Deming Approach to Real Estate

    Discover how Andy Novins turns business challenges into big wins! Andy shares with host Andrew Stotz how he uses Deming strategies to outsmart competitors, watch for market shifts, and win loyal clients in one of the toughest industries around. TRANSCRIPT Andrew Stotz: My name is Andrew Stotz and I'll be your host as we continue our journey into the teachings of Dr. W. Edwards Deming. Today, I'm here with featured guest Andy Novins. Andy, are you ready to join and share your Deming journey?   Andy Novins: I sure am. Yep.   Andrew Stotz: We've done a lot of prep for this, had some good conversations, and I'm looking forward to it. Let me introduce you to the audience. Andy first got introduced to the teachings of Dr. Deming more than 30 years ago and has been hooked ever since. He attended Dr. Deming's four-day seminar in August of 1993, only four months before the passing of Dr. Deming on December 20th of 1993 at the age of 93. Andy was a co-owner of a women's athletic apparel company, which was eventually purchased by Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway. For the past 23 years, he's been applying Dr. Deming's philosophy to his work in real estate, which traditionally has operated in what could be described as in opposition to the teachings of Dr. Deming. Andy, why don't you tell us a little bit about what you're doing right now and maybe a little bit about how you got into what you're doing now, and then later we're going to talk a little bit about your experience with Dr. Deming and all that. But just let us know, where are you at? What are you doing?   Andy Novins: Okay. Well, I am in Northern Virginia, just outside Washington, D.C., and after my partners and I sold the company that Andrew just referred to, I had to decide what I was going to do. And I had about six months to do that because part of the contract required me to help the purchaser, which originally was Russell Corporation, a big athletic, they made all the Major League Baseball uniforms and everything. We had to transfer my company's systems to their systems, and that was one of the worst six months of my career, watching everything we had done, which was really all Deming-based, being sort of dismantled and worked into another Fortune 500 company at the time. It was, somewhat, actually it was a few years later that Berkshire Hathaway bought it, and it was because Russell was not doing very well. It was a rescue-type purchase by Berkshire Hathaway, which sort of had some satisfaction in mind that their systems weren't all that good. So that's where I got into Deming, and I've taken a lot of what I learned from the apparel company into real estate, which, as Andrew just mentioned, is very volume-centric, volume-focused, and focusing on processes as opposed to systems.   Andrew Stotz: And in the real estate world, for those people that don't know, let's say real estate, what position are you in? For instance, my sister is a mortgage broker in Maine, and that's a different place within the whole sphere of it, but maybe you can explain exactly where you are in the value chain.   Andy Novins: Okay. We focus on residential real estate. What we call in real estate farm, okay? I send out 5,000 newsletters a month that show to eight different areas, really, but they're all within, believe it or not, two miles of my house. And those news, I've been doing that for over 20 years. I've never made a cold call. I will never call anybody and say, are you thinking of selling or anything like that. Yet, using this process, which is all really Deming-based, I've done about 10 times the volume of any other realtor in the 5,000 homes that I service. It's the process... I don't want to use process. The system we used is based on Michael Porter, his concept of competitive advantage. And it's a system that's focused on a value chain, things that we do that other people can't do. For example, there are close to 300 sales a year in my 5,000 home market. I see every one of them. And when you see a house that's on the market, you know a lot more than anybody else does by looking at pictures. If you've ever been to an open house and after seeing it on the internet, it's a lot different than what you saw in the pictures. No other agent can do that because most agents in my area focus on Northern Virginia, which would be about 20,000 transactions a year, not 300. So they can't even try to compete with me in my area. So that's the whole concept of it is doing things. As Michael Porter would say, you have a value proposition. That's my expertise in my local area.   Andrew Stotz: Porter talks about different strategies. One, he says, is the low-cost leader. Another is the differentiation. And the third one he talks about is focus and where you're focused on a niche in the market. And then I guess I always kind of think that really he's talking about two, because with focus, you're picking a niche, but then you're going to either be a low-cost leader or probably a differentiator in that focused area. But when you talk about Porter and what he's teaching, can you explain a little bit more for those people that don't know what he talked about?   Andy Novins: Sure. Yes. Basically, yes. I mean, I'll never forget. My partner and I were at a breakfast, realtor breakfast at one point, and there was an agent sitting across the table from us and he said, I just got this listing. And he said, but I had to go down to 1%. And he's, you know, for commission. And at that time, commissions were pretty much 3%. And he kind of looked at us and said, that's better than nothing, right? And that's the low-cost. Low-cost producers will never win. It'll always be somebody else. And Porter says, you can't be the best either. Okay. There's no such thing as the best realtor. There's always going to be somebody else. So the concept for real estate is picking a niche, that for me, it was farming. I'm a pretty good writer. So I write a newsletter, and people call me when they're ready to sell their house. And it's worked beautifully for... I started that in 2003. Okay. But there's people that focus on luxury, the luxury market or people that focus on first time buyers, or people that focus on... There's all kinds of different niches downsizing or upsizing. And so you can become an expert in anything. And that's how you differentiate yourself in real estate.   Andrew Stotz: And that concept of not competing to be best that Porter talks about is great because it also forces you to think. You're focused on the wrong thing if you're focusing on how to beat the competitor. And I always enjoyed the fact that Deming was so focused on the customer.   Andy Novins: Yes.   Andrew Stotz: And that, I think with Porter, I like that. But with Deming, I just really love the idea that he saw quality in the eyes of the customer. He saw innovation and continuous improvement in relation to the customer as primary over trying to benchmark off of some competitor.   Andy Novins: Exactly. And if I go back to my apparel business, the name of our company was Moving Comfort, and we just made women's apparel. Nobody else ever stuck to just that. We were the only company. Just, everybody broadened out to try to get more. So again, it's the same concept of a niche. Okay. But one of the policies, I guess, we've developed, it was a Deming related policy, which was fun, okay, was when we made a mistake, which we often did, whether we shipped somebody the wrong thing or we did other things, our objective was to make the, delight the customer, as he would say, make them happy we made the mistake. And that didn't matter what that cost to do that, sending them free stuff, doing whatever. And I think that's a Deming concept that we used in the apparel business aside from many, many others. Back to real estate, that's, I don't know anybody else in the Washington area that does what we do, because nobody's willing, that's the so-called trade-offs. Nobody's willing to say, I'm just going to focus on 5,000 houses.   Andrew Stotz: Yeah. It's scary.   Andy Novins: They can pick whatever they get.   Andrew Stotz: Yep. Yep. And maybe why don't we now go back to August of 1993. How did you find yourself in a four-day seminar? And I'm kind of jealous because what... My seminars I went to in '90 and '92 were two-day seminars.   Andy Novins: Really? Okay.   Andrew Stotz: And I had thought that he... I had thought by that time, maybe he was only doing two days, but then I learned that he was still doing four days. But what got you to that seminar? Where was it, and what got you there?   Andy Novins: Okay, I was going on vacation. Okay, this was in 1990. We were going to go to Cancun. And there's this, I guess they're still around, but there was a bookstore in DC on K Street called Reiter's. And it was all business and science. And I used to go there because pre-Amazon or anything like that. I think it was even pre-Borders. But I used to go there and spend an afternoon looking at books. And I found Out of the Crisis. And I brought it home and I said to my wife, by perusing through it, I didn't know anything about Deming at that point. But perusing through it, it just struck me as something I really wanted to read. And I went home and I said, I'm taking this book to Cancun, and I'm going to sit on the beach and read it. Well, I actually didn't read it till got home. But I got completely enthralled with it.   Andy Novins: And being in suburban DC, we're like eight miles from the White House. The Deming Study Group was very active in DC. Dr. Deming lived in DC. And there were just a lot of very well-known, famous speakers that would be part of our group, including Deming at one point, but I wasn't. But I think it was before I joined the group. So I read the book, joined the group, and after about three years, I had heard enough about the seminar that I wanted to go. And I went to that in Chicago. It

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Interviews with members of The Deming Institute community, including industry leaders, practitioners, educators, Deming family members and others who share their stories of transformation and success through the innovative management and quality theories of Dr. W. Edwards Deming.

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