Credible Commitments

Apriori

Credible Commitments is an independent Ethereum podcast hosted by apriori. The podcast provides a platform for earnest builders to discuss market structure, products, and philosophy. Credibility is upstream of trust. Knowledge is downstream of both. Choose wisely.

  1. ٢ سبتمبر

    Prediction Markets & The Story the Data Tells

    In this episode of Credible Commitments I chat with Danning S., Research Director at Pantera Capital. We discuss prediction markets from first principles including -- category segmentation, who the users are and how they behave, MEV in crypto markets, oracle resolution mechanisms, and the power of distribution.  (00:00) - Nerding out on data (02:26) - Prediction markets high level view (04:18) - Polymaket US & International (06:14) - Filtering the Data (08:02) - Prediction market segmentation (09:08) - Turnover reveals market attributes (12:40) - MEV on Prediction markets (18:42) - Adversarial taker bots (23:01) - User does not equal wallet (26:28) - Growing prediction market user base (29:59) - Why are trading bots losing money? (31:52) - Culture markets and oracle design (42:20) - Permissionless prediction markets (46:23) - Insider trading (47:15) - High hanging fruit and innovation (49:56) - The super app thesis (52:01) - Does onchain matter? --Danning's Research 1. Flashboys or Superforecasters - A deep dive into Polymarket’s venue growth, user portraits and market structures: https://panteraresearchlab.xyz/research/2026-h1-report-flash-boys-or-superforecasters/ 2. Flashboys or Superforecasters; SBC Presentation at MEV Workshop: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=85j-lQ04T_c 3. Contact Danning on X: https://x.com/sui414 Disclaimer Nothing in this episode should be interpreted as financial, technical, or legal advice.

    Prediction Markets & The Story the Data Tells
  2. ٣١ يوليو

    Navigating The Dark Forest of Ethereum

    In this episode of Credible Commitments I chat with Michael from Quasar Builder (#2 block builder on Ethereum). Michael started out mining Bitcoin before turning to block building, launching Quasar in 2025 with no privileged orderflow and climbing the leaderboard from the public mempool. The episodes progresses as we discuss PropAMMs and the market structure behind orderflow dynamics. Orderflow is downstream of trust. In particular we break down different types of orderflow and discuss what sharing orderflow between competing parties actually looks like and where multi-party block construction is heading. We close by discussing: ACE, faster blocks, and coordination as the next frontier including where ePBS fits into the auction's future, and a final question worth sitting with: is the public mempool beyond saving? Timestamps (00:00) - Bitcoin mining origins (02:15) - Launching Quasar at the right time (03:14) - Building credibility from the public mempool (05:04) - Climbing the leaderboard (07:31) - Trust is king (09:22) - Different types of orderflow (12:51) - CEX-DEX arbitrage (14:59) - PropAMMs (22:13) - Sharing orderflow (25:15) - Multi-party block construction (29:15) - Focus on bringing value to users (30:51) - ACE/ Faster Blocks/ Coordination (36:31) - Ship it mentality (41:31) - Impact of AI on building products (46:27) - Touching on ePBS (53:52) - Is the public mempool beyond saving? Disclaimer Nothing in this episode should be interpreted as financial, technical, or legal advice.

    Navigating The Dark Forest of Ethereum
  3. ٣٠ يونيو

    Tilting at PropAMMs - Markus

    In this episode of Deeply Intents I chat with Markus Schmitt, Founder of Propeller Heads. We dive into PropAMMs: what they are and how they are changing the market microstructure on Ethereum. In addition we unpack the Propeller stack of Tycho, Fynd, and Turbine which will enable a trustless trading experience on Ethereum main-net.  Timestamps (00:00) - Setting the stage (01:11) - What is a PropAMM? (03:24) - Solana PropAMMs vs Ethereum PropAMMs (04:56) - RFQ Systems in comparison (06:44) - PropAMMs solve many issues (08:17) - Offchain actors set parameters on a curve (10:05) - How PropAmms impact onchain routing (14:31) - AMM can provide better prices than a maker (16:34) - PropAMMs and market microstructure (20:32) - Ethereum is a coordination layer (25:48) - Building a self-sovereign trading stack (30:16) - Advantages of open source (31:38) - Fynd turns Tycho into a DEX aggregator (37:10) - Listening to developer feedback (39:31) - Local routing is 100x faster (45:01) - Fynd is customizable (46:50) - Turbine solves problems for large traders (49:20) - Inspiration for Turbine (50:24) - Trades settle in batches (53:45) - Confidentiality, Transparency, & TEEs (57:06) - Turbine is a mixture of many things (56:30) - Open source can be very good business (59:51) - Spicy prediction on DeFi (1:03:44) - Ethereum is the model to follow Disclaimer Nothing in this episode should be interpreted as financial, technical, or legal advice.

    Tilting at PropAMMs - Markus

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Credible Commitments is an independent Ethereum podcast hosted by apriori. The podcast provides a platform for earnest builders to discuss market structure, products, and philosophy. Credibility is upstream of trust. Knowledge is downstream of both. Choose wisely.

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