Equitile Conversations

Equitile
  • 0,0 (0)
  • ĐẦU TƯ

Join Dr. George Cooper and Gerald Ashley as they discuss Markets, Risk, Macroeconomics, and Geopolitics. Brought to you by Equitile Investments (https://www.equitile.com/)

  1. Emerging Markets – Travellers Tales

    14 THG 4

    Emerging Markets – Travellers Tales

    In this Equitile Conversations episode, hosted by George Cooper he invites Gerald Ashley and special guest Richard Knight to share their observations from recent trips to Vietnam and Argentina, contrasting them with the UK's economic performance and mindset. Richard highlights Vietnam's striking dynamism upon arrival: modern airports far superior to those in the UK, and streets buzzing with early-morning workers earning money for upcoming holidays rather than leaving early. This reflects deferred gratification (earn first, spend later) versus the West's debt-fuelled "enjoy now, pay later" culture. Vietnam blends nominal communism with vibrant street-level capitalism: minimal visible rules or police, yet chaotic motorbike traffic flows safely through high personal responsibility. The economy feels entrepreneurial and growth-oriented, prioritising people over strict regulations or environmentalism. Gerald notes that Argentina, once among the world's richest countries pre-WW1, now feels like a "recovering" economy, after decades of heavy socialism. It lacks Vietnam's urgency and outward trading energy, partly due to geographic isolation. In contrast, the UK appears conservative, focused on preserving wealth, status, and ecology while adding layers of rules "for safety." Western systems smooth risks and outcomes, reducing incentives and dynamism. They both question whether cutting excessive rules could revive UK growth, or if prosperity has bred complacency. By way of comparison the following data are cited, GDP per capita (recent figures): UK $52,000–60,000; Argentina $13,000–14,000; Vietnam $4,700–5,000 (with strong 8%+ growth in 2025). Southeast Asia shows more explosive potential than Latin America's recovery. About Richard Knight Richard Knight spent a career in FX markets in investment bank dealing rooms around the world. He later founded and ran a creative agency specialising on UHNW projects, and nowadays he writes on macroeconomics, and markets. His strong focus is on behavioural dynamics, and examining how incentives, perception and decision-making shape outcomes. He combines institutional market experience with practical systems thinking. Now largely retired from traditional roles but Richard actively trades, writes and acts as a legal expert witness in major global FX class actions. This Episodes Book Recommendations Gerald Fall - The Mystery of Robert Maxwell by John Preston Richard Critical Mass - How One Thing Leads to Another by Phillip Ball George Onassis by Frank Brady

    37 phút

  2. 30 THG 3

    Chokepoint Charlie

    In this March 29th, 2026 episode of Equitile Conversations, Gerald Ashley and George Cooper offer a downbeat assessment of the escalating US-Iran war in the Gulf and its profound impact on global supply chains and financial markets. They describe a major negative supply shock triggered by widespread destruction of energy infrastructure, with the US reportedly planning ground troops into Iran. Oil prices spiked near US$120 per barrel before moderating above US$110 despite strategic reserve releases and temporary de-sanctioning of Russian and Iranian supplies. Fuel shortages are already appearing globally. They both warn the disruption will be durable, lasting months to possibly years, affecting not only energy but also fertilizers and agriculture. Emerging second-order effects, such as diesel and fertilizer shortages for Australian farmers, are expected to drive food price inflation with a 6–12 month lag. This points to a protracted inflationary period reminiscent of the late 1970s. George argues that central banks should avoid hiking interest rates, as this is an exogenous shock; tightening policy risks compounding the damage by discouraging necessary investment. Despite this, the ECB is considering rate rises and the Bank of England appears uncertain. The discussion also covers ballooning US debt (now US$39 trillion), strained fiscal positions in the West, questions over AI investment viability, and geopolitical shifts. Using the physics concept of the “elastic limit,” they suggest the global order may not return to its previous state, potentially weakening US dominance and accelerating de-dollarisation. This Episodes Recommendations Gerald The Beer Game A free easy to play simulation here: https://beergame.transentis.com/ George Tiny Rowland – A Rebel Tycoon by Tom Bower

    28 phút

  3. 23 THG 2

    Energetic Times

    In this February 2026 edition of Equitile Conversations, host Gerald Ashley interviews Nic Rogers, head of research at Equitile, revisiting energy markets after their accurate 2025 call: volatile natural gas but subdued oil. Rogers highlights a rotation toward value and "heavy asset, low obsolescence" stocks, with energy sector outperformance early in 2026, leading the S&P 500—unusual and historically bearish for other sectors. Oil majors and services firms offer strong cash flows, 5-10%+ buyback/dividend yields, low debt, and historically cheap valuations. The oil-to-gold ratio (~80:1, vs. historical ~20:1) signals extreme undervaluation; past extremes below 30:1 averaged 32% oil returns in the following year. Bullish drivers include emerging market demand (e.g., India), potential weak dollar, geopolitical tensions (Iran, Venezuela, Russia), and limited supply growth from underinvestment (upstream capex ~36% below 2014 peaks) and high shale depletion. Offshore discoveries (Guyana, Brazil, Namibia) favour deepwater, with tight ultra-deepwater rig capacity post-Transocean/Valaris merger potentially boosting services. Many energy analysts remain bearish (e.g., IEA glut forecasts), but markets increasingly ignore them, starting to price in a premium. A supply squeeze could surprise, especially if US shale softens. Natural gas ties to AI/data centre power demand as a bridge fuel until nuclear scales (decades away). US LNG exports double capacity, lifting the price floor amid volatility ("widow maker"). Midstream pipelines offer stable, toll-like returns. Coal holds approx. 28% global share, the market is Asia-centric (China uses it to firm renewables), with supply constraints in the West (e.g., Australia permitting near-zero new coal mining projects). Overall, Rogers paints a bullish case for oil (upside surprise) and gas (rising floor despite swings), amid rotation from digital to physical assets. Coal will continue to persist longer-term. About Nicholas Rogers Nicholas Rogers is Head of Research at Equitile Investments, joining in 2024. With close to a decade of experience in wealth and asset management, he previously worked at several bulge bracket banks, including HSBC and Citi in Sydney, Australia. His interests lie in the commodity markets and identifying broader macroeconomic trends.  This episodes book recommendations Gerald Prisoners of Geography by Tim Marshall Nicholas The Rise of Carry by Lee, Lee, and Coldiron

    32 phút

  4. 27 THG 1

    Let's Get Physical

    In the first episode of 2026, George Cooper and Gerald Ashley examine the persistent “debasement trade”: fiat money weakening while physical assets surge. They revive the “Savoy Gold Dinner ratio,” a metric from the 1970s/80s created by gold mines fund manager Julian Baring. In August 1971—days after Nixon closed the gold window—a comparable Savoy Grill dinner cost £5.67 per head. With gold at $40/oz (£16.66/oz at the fixed rate), one ounce bought roughly 3 dinners. At their recent meal on the 7th January: The bill came to £236.32 per head (with modest wine), with gold at $4,460/oz (~£3,303/oz), yielding 14 dinners per ounce—a 4.7× gain in gold’s purchasing power over 54 fiat years. Interestingly in wage terms, the meal’s burden barely budged: 1.4 days of average weekly earnings in 1971 (at £20 a week) vs. 1.6 days today (now at £736 a week). The Savoy has kept pace with labour costs, but gold has vastly outrun inflation as a store of value. This reflects a wider rotation: investors favour scarce physical assets—industrial metals, fertilizers, shipping, energy—over easily copied digital ones. AI commoditises software moats (e.g., image generation displacing Adobe tools; potential chip-design replication), eroding advantages for asset-light firms. Gold supplants bonds as the prime safe haven amid fiscal stress. Governments are increasingly close to Hyman Minsky’s “Ponzi stage,” with US debt interest topping $1 trillion yearly, driving money creation that inflates tangible-asset demand. But Bitcoin, despite debasement hype, is stalling - its digital replicability (via substitutes) contrasts with bullion’s scarcity. This episode highlights a return to capital-hungry physical realities over ephemeral software. View the article on Gerald and George's dinner at the Savoy in The Times: https://www.thetimes.com/business/companies-markets/article/dine-out-on-gold-how-an-ounce-will-now-buy-lunch-for-14-at-the-savoy-grill-qx8hpb8rh This episodes book recommendations Gerald Does God Play Dice?: The New Mathematics of Chaos by Ian Stewart George Genghis Khan and the Making of the Modern World by Jack Weatherford

    31 phút
  5. Taxing Growth

    09/12/2025

    Taxing Growth

    In this episode George & Gerald chatted to macro economist Doug McWilliams about the perennial topic of economic growth. Growth doesn’t arrive by accident. They dig into a concrete plan to raise living standards in the UK by combining a simpler tax system, targeted deregulation, and policies that bring more people back into productive work, drawing on insights from a new book Prosperity Through Growth. It’s core argument is simple: in a world where talent and capital move easily, policy mistakes get punished quickly, and clarity becomes a competitive edge. Doug explained why a staged path to a 20% flat tax alongside the abolition of national insurance could lift output over time, and why regulation—not just its level but its instability—has become a prime drag on investment. From planning rules that stall housing to compliance costs that turn basic banking into a slog, we explore the hidden frictions that sap productivity. At the same time, we examine demographic headwinds—ageing, low birth rates, and falling participation—and the mixed lessons from Japan on how to sustain GDP per capita through smarter labour policies. However there are some bright spots, the UK’s flat white economy—tech and digital services—is booming, helped by freedom from restrictive EU digital acts. We ask what else could grow if given simpler, stable rules and why drifting back into heavier frameworks could undo our brightest gains. Finally to perhaps lighten the mood, rather than the usual book recommendations, the three of them discuss their favourite cars. About Douglas McWilliams Douglas McWilliams most recently co-authored with Michael Hintze, Matthew Elliot and the great Art Laffer ‘Prosperity Through Growth’ about how to achieve economic growth in a world of autocracy and AI. Previously he has written the Flat White Economy, identifying the unlikely growth sector in East London, The Inequality Paradox about how globalisation has reduced poverty worldwide while at the same time raising inequality in formerly rich countries and Driving the Silk Road, about how the areas between China and the West are being affected by Chinese industrialisation – the book emerged from the Peking to Paris car rally in which he participated in a 1950s Bentley. Douglas was the founder of Cebr which he sold the day before the 2024 Budget. Previously he had been Chief Economist for the CBI and for IBM UK. He was the Gresham Professor of Commerce 2011-13 and chaired the economics committee of Business Europe Doug's New book - Prosperity Through Growth

    36 phút
  6. Never Mind The Benchmarks

    29/10/2025

    Never Mind The Benchmarks

    Never mind beating the benchmark when the benchmark is quietly making the real decisions. Gerald Ashley and George Cooper pull back the curtain on how index choice shifts risk onto investors, fuels herding, and even distorts the wider economy. From the S&P 500’s ninefold climb to the FTSE’s more modest tripling, they unpack why “go passive” still demands a critical, high stakes decision about which index to follow and which currencies to carry. The conversation digs into the perverse logic of bond benchmarks that allocate more money to the largest borrowers, weakening market discipline and rewarding profligacy. They explore how capweighted equity indices concentrate capital in today’s winners, raising volatility and inflating bubbles, while managers hide behind relative performance. The solution starts with a better mandate: target returns above inflation, not a promise to hug an index. That shift aligns portfolios with real world goals like retirement income and purchasing power, and it demands genuine active thinking rather than closet indexing. Governance gets a frank assessment too. With proxy voting often outsourced, economic priorities can be diluted by political agendas, leaving savers to fund unclear trade-offs. Gerald and George argue that if society wants cleaner air or fairer work, those costs should be priced by policy, not buried in passive voting guidelines. Yet there’s optimism: index flows have created a market split between crowded themes—think AI infrastructure—and overlooked “antibubble” assets. For investors willing to do the work, that dispersion offers real value and better odds of compounding above inflation. If you care about real returns, not just neat tracking error, this is a reframe worth your time. Follow the show, share with a friend who loves a good debate, and leave a review with your take on benchmarks—do they help you stay disciplined, or are they holding your portfolio back? This episodes book recommendations Gerald The Origin Of Wealth: Evolution, Complexity, and the Radical Remaking of Economics George (A film) In Time - starring Justin Timberlake

    33 phút

  7. 16/09/2025

    Mission Impossible

    In this edition George Cooper and Gerald Ashley are joined by Helen Thomas of Blonde Money. Are many governments in the developed world facing a fiscal Mission Impossible? They looked at current financial risks, global fiscal challenges, and central bank independence, focusing on the political implications. The conversation highlighted how political systems and electoral dynamics are shaping economic policies in the post-COVID era, with concerns about rising government debt, market volatility, and the IMF's limited bailout capacity. They discussed central bank independence, suggesting it may align with government needs rather than being truly autonomous, and also explored potential political and economic shifts over the next decade, including inflation's role in addressing debt. About Helen Thomas (aka Blonde Money) Helen Thomas is the founder and CEO of Blonde Money, an independent consultancy firm established in 2014, focusing on mispriced risks in financial markets across the USA, UK, and EU.  She has over 20 years of experience in banking, fund management, and politics, including roles as a partner at ABD Investment Management and Head of Currency Alpha at State Street Global Advisors. Thomas served as an adviser to former UK Chancellor George Osborne in 2008 and created the Financial Markets Reform Programme for Policy Exchange. She holds a degree in PPE from Oxford, is a CFA Charterholder, a freeman of the City of London and a former board member of CFA UK. She is a regular columnist for City AM, a London-based business newspaper. Her columns focus on financial markets, economic trends, and political developments. Additionally, she co-authored the book Masters of Nothing with MP Matthew Hancock and is a frequent speaker and media commentator on financial and political topics. This episodes book recommendations Gerald The Way We Live Now by Anthony Trollope George The Alchemy of Finance by George Soros Helen The Seventh Floor by David McCloskey

    38 phút

  8. 30/07/2025

    Time to Retire the Term Emerging Markets?

    In this Equitile Conversations episode, Gerald Ashley and George Cooper, joined by guest Michael Power, discuss the outdated term "emerging markets."  They argue it inaccurately describes dynamic economies like China, which lead in technology and growth, while traditional "developed" markets like the US exhibit characteristics once associated with emerging markets, such as fiscal issues and currency volatility. They criticise the reliance on indices and ETFs that oversimplify investment decisions and highlight a lack of holistic asset allocation. Power notes the variety of opportunities in so-called emerging markets, driven by long-term growth potential, and discusses de-dollarisation trends, with countries like India and the UAE trading in local currencies. Cooper emphasises unconstrained investing, focusing on companies with strong growth in these regions. About Michael Power Michael Power is a prominent South African financial markets commentator and strategist, known for his extensive career in global investment, with a focus on Africa and emerging markets. His career spans several decades and includes roles at major financial institutions such as Anglo American, NM Rothschild & Sons, HSBC, and Baring Asset Management, with work in South Africa, London, and Kenya. Power’s expertise centres on geo-economics, the role of Asia in the 21st century, and Africa’s economic relationships with global markets. This episodes book recommendations Reflecting themes of financial history, economic dystopia, and dollar dominance challenges. Gerald The Railway King by Robert Beaumont George The Mandibles by Lionel Shriver Michael  Our Dollar, Your Problem by Kenneth Rogoff equitileconversations.com

    33 phút
Xem tất cả (13)

Giới Thiệu

Join Dr. George Cooper and Gerald Ashley as they discuss Markets, Risk, Macroeconomics, and Geopolitics. Brought to you by Equitile Investments (https://www.equitile.com/)

Thông Tin

  • Nhà sáng tạo
    Equitile
  • Năm hoạt động
    2025 - 2026
  • Tập
    13
  • Xếp hạng
    Thô tục
  • Bản quyền
    © 2026 Equitile Conversations
  • Trang web chương trình
    Equitile Conversations

Có Thể Bạn Cũng Thích