FARMCON Conversations

Kevin Van Trump
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Our annual FARMCON conference has connected our family with some of the real movers and shakers in agriculture. Now, through this new podcast, we’re bringing those conversations directly to you. If you’re looking to separate yourself from the crowd and hear about cutting-edge ag-technology, market insights, and hard-earned lessons you won’t find anywhere else, this podcast is for you. What makes it special is the willingness of guests to openly share not only their successes, but also their failures, ideas, and keys to growth.

  1. hace 5 días

    FARMCON CONVERSATIONS — NEW EPISODE

    NEW FARMCON PODCAST – Kevin and Todd cover a lot of ground this week—from why Kevin is getting more aggressive pricing corn and wheat, to what could push soybeans toward $14, why higher wheat insurance guarantees could change 2027 planting decisions, and where dangerous “air pockets” could develop if bullish fund money starts heading for the exits. They also dig into AI, nuclear power, weather modification, the growing gambling economy, why Kevin refuses to waste energy complaining about rules he can’t control, and why the next 6–12 months could present an unusually attractive window for some farm and agribusiness owners thinking about selling. 04:00 — Why Kevin Is Selling Into the Rally – Kevin explains why he’s pricing more 2026 and 2027 corn and moving further out on wheat sales, including his first 2028 wheat sales. The key distinction: being bullish on a market does not mean a producer should leave all of the risk on the table. 07:00 — The Wheat Insurance Wild Card – Higher wheat prices could translate into substantially stronger crop-insurance guarantees for next year. Kevin explains why that could pull more acres into wheat and potentially change the economics of planting and double-cropping in 2027. 12:00 — What Could Take Corn to $6? – Kevin believes the market may currently be trading something close to a 177–178 bushel national yield. He walks through why a confirmed yield around 175 or lower, combined with continued geopolitical problems, could give bulls another significant leg higher. 22:00 — What Could Send Soybeans Toward $14? – Kevin thinks the soybean yield is moving lower and says a national yield below roughly 51.5 bushels could dramatically tighten the outlook. China continuing to buy, stronger crush demand, EPA clarification on bean oil, and deteriorating crop conditions are keeping the bull story alive. 27:00 — Where the Grain “Air Pockets” Come From – A lot of speculative money is already positioned bullish. Kevin explains how markets can suddenly drop 40, 50 or 60 cents when bullish headlines disappear and everyone who is already long starts trying to exit at the same time. 31:00 — Players Play. Officials Officiate – Kevin explains one of the philosophies that has guided him in sports, markets and business: stop wasting time complaining about the rules and adjust your game. He believes people who avoid getting distracted by things they can’t control gain a significant competitive advantage. 38:00 — Would Kevin Invest in Weather Modification? – Rainmaker recently reported successful drone-based cloud seeding in Alaska. Kevin respects the technology and the people behind it but explains why manipulating weather crosses a personal line for him as an investor — even though he believes the technology is going to continue advancing. 59:00 — Why Being Willing to Look Stupid Matters – Kevin discusses social media, external validation, entrepreneurship and why individual sports, trading and business ownership can be so valuable. His argument: real-world accountability has a way of quickly testing theories that sound great from the sidelines. 1:12:00 — Could This Be a Great Time to Sell? – With stronger commodity prices, elevated farmland values, a strong stock market and more liquidity returning to agriculture, Kevin believes the next 6–12 months could offer an attractive exit window for some owners who already expect to sell farmland or an ag business within the next several years. KEVIN’S QUOTES “Your job as a producer is to take risk off the table.” “I think it’s only a matter of time until somebody somewhere figures out a way to get some of this Black Sea grain out.” “Most of the bulls are already in. It’s going to take a continuation of these headlines to keep that market moving higher.” “Players play, coaches coach, officials officiate.” “You can’t get rabbit ears.” “You’ve got to be willing to look stupid, and you’ve got to be willing to be wrong.” “You don’t want to be trying to sell when there are more sellers than buyers.”

  2. 25 ago

    FARMCON CONVERSATIONS — NEW EPISODE

    NEW FARMCON PODCAST >> Kevin and Todd cover grain markets, China risk, the weaker-dollar trade, AI and data centers, farm leverage, and why producers still have to remain the CEO of their own business—even when surrounded by experts. THIS WEEK’S CONVERSATION08:00 — Why Kevin Sold More CornKevin explains why his resting orders were triggered around $5.20, why he rewarded the rally, and what the corn market still needs if bulls are going to attract another wave of money. 23:00 — The Hardest Part of Marketing Is Still ExecutionPrice targets have a funny way of moving higher as the market rallies. Kevin talks about pulling the trigger, knowing your own operation, and why producers give away an edge when they blindly follow someone else’s program. 27:00 — You Are the CEO of Your Business and Your LifeLawyers, accountants, doctors, agronomists and market advisers can provide valuable opinions, but Kevin argues they belong in your “boardroom”—they shouldn’t be making the final decision for you. 32:00 — Soybeans: China Is the Risk Kevin Is WatchingKevin banks his remaining bullish soybean profits and buys puts. His concern isn’t necessarily the U.S. crop—it’s what could happen to soybean demand if geopolitical tensions spill into U.S.-China trade. 40:00 — Wheat: The Grain Isn’t Gone, It’s TrappedBlack Sea disruptions are keeping wheat supported, but Kevin warns that much of the rally is built on dislocation and war premium. Any credible path to moving that grain could change the market quickly. 44:00 — Why Kevin Thinks America Has to Win the AI RaceA discussion about the weaker dollar turns into a much bigger conversation about manufacturing, data centers, national competitiveness and why Kevin has dramatically changed his thinking on the infrastructure needed to support AI. 1:03:00 — The Debasement Trade: Where Kevin Is Putting MoneyIf Washington wants a weaker dollar and inflation stays elevated, Kevin doesn’t want too much capital losing purchasing power in cash. He explains why he continues adding exposure to gold, silver, metals and Bitcoin. 1:04:00 — Would You Let AI Trade Your Money?Kevin sees tremendous value in AI, but he’s wary of becoming dependent on it for investment decisions. His concern is what happens when AI creates financial products and strategies humans can no longer fully understand when something goes wrong. 1:09:00 — Bigger Isn’t Always Better on the FarmDeere’s diversified businesses lead to a discussion about farm growth, debt and alternative return streams. Kevin explains why adding acres can make sense for the right operator—but getting bigger simply to get bigger can become dangerous when leverage is involved. KEVIN’S QUOTES“Bulls have to eat more regularly than bears.” “I think you’re a fool to follow anybody blindly. Anybody.” “You are the CEO of your business and your life.” “Your edge lies within that art on your farm, your individual farm.” “We have to win the AI race.” “You don’t want to be the cat without the chair, all levered up.” “It ain’t a matter of if you’re going to get knocked down in life. You’re going to get knocked down all the time. It’s who gets up the fastest that wins.”

  3. 18 ago

    FARMCON CONVERSATIONS — NEW EPISODE

    NEW FARMCON PODCAST Kevin and Todd cover everything from corn, soybeans and cattle to government policy, investing, selling the family farm, hiring great people, and why some of the biggest lessons in business come down to knowing when to change direction. THIS WEEK’S CONVERSATION 03:00 — What Liquid Death Can Teach AgricultureKevin explains why FARMCON intentionally brings in successful people from outside agriculture—and how producers can borrow ideas from great brands and businesses in completely different industries. 06:00 — Corn: Where Does the Next Move Come From?Kevin breaks down crop variability, exports, yield risk and why the September USDA report could become an important inflection point for corn prices. 14:00 — Soybeans: Is the Bullish Demand Story Already Priced In?China is buying and domestic crush remains strong, but Kevin believes the bigger market surprise may now have to come from the supply side and a smaller U.S. yield. 23:00 — Wheat Still Needs a Demand StoryBlack Sea disruptions continue to provide support, but Kevin explains why plentiful global supplies leave wheat with a very different setup than corn and soybeans. 28:00 — Tyson, Cattle & Knowing When to Change CourseTyson’s recent moves lead to a bigger conversation about capital allocation, taking losses and why strong businesses have to be willing to admit when something isn’t working. 32:00 — Don’t Bet Against the GovernmentKevin explains why one of his core investing rules is to understand where government policy and capital are flowing—and avoid putting yourself directly on the other side. 54:00 — Would You Sell the Family Farm for 20X?If somebody offered $100,000 an acre for ground worth $5,000, would sentiment win—or business? Kevin explains why he believes an extraordinary offer can create an even bigger opportunity for the next generation. 58:00 — The “All-In” Test for Investing & HiringKevin shares the filter he now uses on investment opportunities, why he increasingly bets on people rather than products, and what he looks for when evaluating the people leading a business. KEVIN’S QUOTES “If he can take standard water and create a brand around it and build it into the empire he’s built it into, you could take number two yellow corn.” “I’ve watched more friends go broke in businesses… just because they couldn’t take a loss.” “If nothing changes, nothing changes.” “I don’t wanna take positions or stances that really work against what the government’s trying to do.” “I’m in the business to be in business.” “Good people can take an okay or even a bad idea and make it a great business. Bad people can take a great idea and turn it into a piece of crap.” “Hire great people that tell you what to do. If you’re hiring people that you have to tell what to do, those aren’t great people.”

  4. 11 ago

    FARMCON CONVERSATIONS — NEW EPISODE

    WASDE Wild Cards, Trading Volatility & Why Good Producers Still Struggle This week Kevin and Todd dig into today’s WASDE report, where Kevin sees the biggest potential surprises, and why he believes the market may be sitting in a spot where one USDA number could trigger a much larger technical move. Kevin also explains why he is trading smaller as volatility increases, why he would rather react to a market mistake than try to predict the USDA, why some very good producers still struggle financially, and why the business side of agriculture is becoming an even bigger separator. A few highlights from this week’s conversation: 00:40 — What should the most important room in agriculture be talking about?AI, robotics, government policy, new investment ideas, and one overriding question: How do we use all of these new tools to improve ROI? 02:15 — Kevin’s biggest WASDE wild cardKevin says acreage may be the number that creates the surprise. He also discusses yield, feed and residual demand, exports, and why adjustments to last year’s crop could still matter. 08:30 — Stop putting too much weight on weekly crop ratingsKevin pushes back hard on using USDA Good-to-Excellent ratings as a precise yield predictor and says he puts more weight on private tours, producer intelligence, and actual boots-on-the-ground observations. 19:25 — Don’t predict the report. Wait for the market to make a mistake.Kevin compares trading around USDA reports to wrestling: stay balanced, let the opponent overextend, and then take advantage. 29:15 — Why Kevin is trading smaller than he used toMore speculative money, larger price swings, and greater volatility mean the consequences of being over-leveraged are dramatically higher. 37:40 — Are struggling producers simply bad operators?Kevin’s distinction is important: most producers he knows are very good at producing a crop. The bigger separator is business — marketing, equipment decisions, insurance, inputs, technology, taxes, capital allocation, and ROI. 43:20 — Put a great businessperson against a great producer. Who wins?Kevin’s answer is immediate: the businessperson. They may need time to learn production — or hire somebody who already knows it — but strong business judgment eventually becomes the advantage. 49:25 — The AI conversation comes down to one word: EXECUTEHaving data isn’t enough. Having AI isn’t enough. Having advisors isn’t enough. The advantage comes from actually implementing what improves the business. 59:15 — Why Kevin is still holding substantial cash even as Wall Street gets more bullishKevin explains the difference between being bearish and maintaining dry powder. His long-term investing accounts remain bullish — he simply wants enough cash available to capitalize when markets hit one of the “trap doors” he believes are inevitable. KEVIN QUOTES “I’m not trying to predict or forecast what the USDA is gonna do… I’m trying to play if the market overreacts one way or the other.” “The whole key is to be able to stay with a move and not get shook out.” “The differentiator is on the business side.” “A great person can take a really s****y or bad idea and make it good. A bad person can take a really great business and make it really bad.” The bigger theme running through this episode is simple: Volatility creates opportunity — but only if you have the discipline, liquidity, and business structure to survive long enough to take advantage of it. Listen to the full episode of FARMCON Conversations. FARMCON — The Most Important Room in Agriculture

  5. 4 ago

    FARMCON Conversations 08-05-2026: Special Guest, Dan Maycock, co-founder of Dataplai

    This week’s FarmCon Conversations starts with what makes FarmCon different from a normal ag event: it is not built around vacation travel, generic networking, or people telling producers how to farm. Kevin explains why FarmCon is positioned as a room for serious producers, operators, ranchers, ag businesses, and decision-makers who are trying to make better business, market, and capital-allocation decisions. From there, Kevin and Todd move through corn, soybeans, wheat, macro markets, interest rates, investing, prediction markets, and the danger of falling in love with a good story before the numbers support it. The second half of the episode features Dan Maycock, co-founder and CTO of Dataplai, for a practical conversation about AI in agriculture — what it actually is, where it can help producers, where the hype is dangerous, and why farmers need to learn how to use the tool without letting it make decisions for them. In this episode: 0:00 Why FarmCon is not designed like a normal ag conference, and why Kevin believes it should be a room where serious operators come to make better business and market decisions. 5:00 Corn, the August WASDE setup, declining crop ratings, and why Kevin is not aggressively bullish even though he thinks USDA’s 183 yield may be high. 14:00 Kevin’s current soybean view, including why he still likes the longer-term demand story but wants to buy bigger breaks rather than chase strength. 17:00 The wheat discussion: Black Sea logistics, exportable supply, and why Kevin sees wheat as more of a war-and-weather story than a clean demand story. 23:00 Macro markets, labor data, inflation, crude oil, and why Kevin does not currently believe the Fed needs to be aggressively hawkish. 31:00 Kevin’s investing posture: why he remains conservative, overweight cash, and more interested in buying bigger breaks than chasing stocks at current valuations. 39:00 Prediction markets, Kalshi, Polymarket, and why Kevin thinks these markets are here to stay and could become increasingly relevant in agriculture. 49:00 Dan Maycock joins the conversation for a practical discussion on AI in agriculture — what it is, where it can help producers, where the hype is dangerous, and why farmers need “flight school” before relying too heavily on the tool.

  6. 28 jul

    FARMCON Conversations 07–29-2026 – Learn, Unlearn, and Relearn

    This week’s FarmCon Conversations starts with a FARMCON update, then corn, soybeans, wheat, but the better discussion is really about how Kevin thinks through risk, markets, business, and change. In this episode: 18:00 – Why Kevin believes producers should focus less on being right about the final yield and more on being right about how the market trades USDA’s number. 29:00 – How Kevin is thinking about corn’s wide trading range, with buyers watching the lower end and producers looking to reduce risk toward the upper end. 32:00 – Why Kevin is trading small, using options, and trying not to manage the “flip-flop” in a market that can move hard both directions. 36:00 – How soybeans are trading the gap between USDA’s 53 bpa yield and private estimates that may already be moving lower. 40:00 – Why Kevin thinks domestic soybean crush could become a bigger story this fall, especially if China adds fresh buying interest. 46:00 – Why Kevin is bullish wheat, but sees the story as more about Black Sea logistics, execution risk, and supply being out of position than a simple production shortage. 51:00 – Why Kevin is watching farmland values, subsidies, lending, and government support as potential long-term risks inside agriculture. 1:03:00 – Why Kevin questions whether farmland has already seen a major expansion in the buyer pool from funds, solar, data centers, and outside capital. 1:11:00 – How Kevin is positioning his investment accounts around AI, the Fed, ag stocks, gold, cash, and potential market pullbacks. 1:17:00 – Why Kevin pushes back against constant doom-and-gloom thinking around debt, deficits, and the economy. 1:25:00 – What Kevin tells young people about careers, flexibility, opportunity, and why chasing money alone can lead to bad decisions. Key quotes from Kevin: “As long as the USDA is in business, I think that’s what the world’s gonna trade off of.” “You can be as right as the day is long on the yield, but if you’re wrong the market and wrong where the USDA’s going with it, you’re just gonna get annihilated.” “I don’t wanna manage the flip-flop.” “I trade small here because with the volatility where it is, I don’t want to get knocked out.” “The key is get in early and leave early.” “Whoever can hold their breath the longest has got the best chance to survive.” “Learn, unlearn, relearn.” “Be the best that you can possibly be at whatever you pick to be.”

  7. 21 jul

    FARMCON Conversations 07–22-2026: “Planning is over. Now it’s time to execute—and it’s going to be a grind.”

    This week’s FarmCon Conversations starts with corn, soybeans, wheat, and the latest USDA numbers, but the better discussion is really about how Kevin thinks through risk, markets, business, and change. Kevin and Todd talk through what has driven the recent grain rally, why producers should avoid becoming locked onto a single price forecast, and how to recognize when bullish headlines may be creating an opportunity to remove risk. From there, the conversation moves into collectible investing, business execution, mental flexibility, and why the ability to stay focused after the work becomes repetitive often separates successful people from everyone else. In this episode: Why Kevin believes producers should surf the markets rather than try to predict them, using rallies to reduce risk instead of waiting for one perfect price. How much of the recent strength in corn, soybeans, and wheat may be tied to speculative money, weather uncertainty, energy markets, and geopolitical risk. Why Kevin believes wheat may have the strongest underlying supply-and-logistics story of the three major grain markets. What Kevin looks for when investing in collectibles—and why scarce, elite assets can be easier to sell than average items with far more visible supply. Why successful people make a plan, commit to the execution, and resist the temptation to change direction simply because they become bored. How Kevin has produced The Van Trump Report consistently for more than 20 years by focusing on completing one report and one day at a time. Key quotes from Kevin: “As a producer, you’ve got to surf the market. You’re just trying to pick spots to take risk off the table.” “When you get focused on a number, it handcuffs you mentally and makes it difficult to remain flexible.” “Big bulls need to be fed regularly. I’m not sure the bullish news can continue at the pace it has been coming.” “Planning is over. Now it’s time to execute—and it’s going to be a grind.” “Your job isn’t to clean all the dishes. Your job is to clean one dish, and then keep doing that over and over.”

  8. 14 jul

    FARMCON Conversations 07–15-2026: The windshield is super big for a reason

    This week’s FarmCon Conversations starts with corn, soybeans, wheat, and the latest USDA numbers, but the better discussion is really about how Kevin thinks through risk, markets, business, and change. Kevin explains why he took profits on a bullish corn position after the USDA report did not deliver the acreage cut he expected, even though the market still rallied. His reasoning was simple: “When things change, I change.”A few ideas worth listening for: Corn and soybeans are carrying weather premium, but both still need fresh confirmation. Kevin explains why corn needs heat during pollination to keep adding premium, while soybeans need August weather, China, energy, or crush demand to bring in the next wave of buyers. Wheat is becoming an export-reliability story. The U.S. crop is historically tight, but Kevin spends more time on whether Russia can actually move wheat reliably through key export channels. FOMO is not a strategy. Kevin explains why he is still nibbling selectively in stocks, metals, and industrials, but refuses to chase just because other people are making money. Demand-driven markets give you more than one chance. Kevin talks about AI, metals, industrials, and commodities through the lens of finding real demand stories and waiting for better entries. Pruning is part of growth. Kevin shares why businesses often need to cut weak branches, stop watering dead plants, and focus more attention on what actually creates return. The sunk-cost trap hurts investors and business owners. Kevin explains why looking backward at what you already lost or spent can keep you tied to bad positions, bad projects, and bad decisions. A few more takeaways from Kevin: “The rearview mirror is super small. The windshield is super big for a reason.” “Most of the hay is made in doing the worst part of the job consistently on a daily basis.” “They mentally can’t hold the magnifying glass still long enough to get a fire started.”

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Our annual FARMCON conference has connected our family with some of the real movers and shakers in agriculture. Now, through this new podcast, we’re bringing those conversations directly to you. If you’re looking to separate yourself from the crowd and hear about cutting-edge ag-technology, market insights, and hard-earned lessons you won’t find anywhere else, this podcast is for you. What makes it special is the willingness of guests to openly share not only their successes, but also their failures, ideas, and keys to growth.

Información

  • Creador
    Kevin Van Trump
  • Años de actividad
    2020 - 2026
  • Episodios
    63
  • Clasificación
    Explícito
  • Copyright
    © Farm Direction
  • Mostrar sitio web
    FARMCON Conversations

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