In this wide-ranging conversation with Arati (Prem was out sick, sadly), Dr. Roxy Koll explains why climate change is no longer a distant, gradual phenomenon but an accelerating cascade of interconnected risks. They discuss El Niño and monsoon dynamics to extreme rainfall, Himalayan hazards, sea-level rise, urban heat, forest-driven rainfall recycling, climate-sensitive disease, agriculture, and the communication gap between science, policy, and the public. SHOWNOTES: Dengue, rainfall and a changing monsoon Dr. Koll previews research connecting dengue incidence in Kerala with climate and monsoon variability. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/39837878/ The 2025 paper co-authored by Koll. It reports climate–dengue associations in Pune, including lag times of roughly 2–5 months that could support anticipatory intervention. https://www.climate.rocksea.org/research/climate-dengue/ The danger we underestimate: speed The central warning: climate change is unfolding faster than governments, infrastructure, monitoring systems, and ordinary people can adapt. Extreme events are no longer distant risks; they are life-changing disruptions. https://www.climate.rocksea.org/research/future-indian-ocean/ Climate change is accelerating It is not simply that warming and extreme rainfall are increasing. The rate of intensification is itself increasing—especially since the late 20th century and even more strongly after 2000. How the Pacific controls weather far away Why should warming in the Pacific affect India? The Pacific’s vast scale and its ability to store heat make it a major driver of global atmospheric circulation. Trade winds, upwelling and El Niño Dr. Koll explains normal Pacific conditions: easterly trade winds push warm surface water toward Asia, while cold, nutrient-rich water upwells near the Americas, supporting fisheries.El Niño and La Niña, simply explained The ocean as Earth’s heat reservoir Oceans absorb most of the surplus heat caused by greenhouse-gas emissions. Their immense depth and heat capacity allow them to store warming for centuries, locking in climate consequences long after emissions decline. Stronger El Niños in a hotter world The discussion considers why recent El Niño events appear unusually intense, why scientists remain careful about attribution, and why existing vocabulary often struggles to convey unprecedented extremes. https://www.climate.rocksea.org/research/ocean-atmosphere-coupling/ A startling measure of ocean heat Dr. Koll uses the Hiroshima-bomb analogy to convey the scale of excess heat absorbed by the world’s oceans every second—and what that accumulated heat means for corals, fish, acidification, and marine ecosystems. From El Niño to India’s monsoon The monsoon is part of the wider tropical circulation. In El Niño conditions, weakened trade winds can weaken monsoon flow, reducing seasonal rainfall over India. https://www.climate.rocksea.org/research/enso-monsoon/ How do El Nino years link to Indian Monsoons? https://www.climate.rocksea.org/images/climate/iitm_aismr_monsoon_enso_1871_2025.png Weak monsoon, extreme rain A crucial distinction: below-normal monsoon rainfall can coexist with cloudbursts and severe local flooding. Warmer air holds more moisture, allowing short-lived systems to dump extraordinary amounts of rain. https://www.climate.rocksea.org/research/widespread-extreme-rainfall-india/ What 1,000 mm of rain really means A practical rainfall lesson: 1 mm of rain over 1 sq m equals 1 litre of water. Scale that to 1,000 mm across a hillside, city, or roof, and the destructive force becomes easier to grasp. Infrastructure built for yesterday’s climate Heavy rain, slope failures, forest loss, and the Mumbai–Pune corridor illustrate how roads, tunnels, hillsides, and urban systems often fail to account for future climate extremes. Sea-level rise beyond the headline A few millimetres a year may sound trivial, but on low-gradient coasts they translate into substantial land loss. Local sea-level rise varies across the Indian coastline. Why seas are rising The two dominant causes are melting land ice and thermal expansion: as seawater absorbs heat, it expands. Indian Ocean warming is especially important for regional sea-level rise. Subsidence, saltwater and storm surge Sea-level risk is compounded where land is sinking, groundwater is extracted, and deltas are fragile. Higher baseline seas make cyclones, tides, and storm surges more damaging—and saltwater can destroy agricultural land for years. Climate impacts outlast one season Delayed monsoons affect sowing, rabi crops, stubble burning, air pollution, household debt, education, food systems, and the wider economy. https://www.climate.rocksea.org/images/climate/Roxy_2025_Monsoon_Water_Changing_Climate.pdf -- perhaps the closest single companion reading to this episode, spanning monsoon change, water security, extreme rain, climate-sensitive disease, and adaptation Contact us: Email the Podcast Arati Kumar-Rao on Instagram Prem Panicker on X (Twitter) Prem on Substack From The Marginlands on Instagram
