Gabriel Weinberg's Blog

Gabriel Weinberg

Tech, policy, and business insights from the DuckDuckGo founder and co-author of Traction and Super Thinking. gabrielweinberg.com

  1. 5D AGO

    The paradox of progress

    Progress doesn’t have a single agreed-upon definition, but for the sake of anchoring, let’s say progress is rising living standards. While this definition seems unambiguously good, deserving of top billing on policy agendas for both major parties, the paradox is that long-term progress agendas rarely get top billing. Why? Here are three underlying reasons I’ve noticed in thinking about advocating for a lot more basic research funding, which I think needs to be the cornerstone of any credible progress agenda: * Timescale mismatch. People want benefits now, not decades from now. U.S. politics runs on two-year cycles, while progress policies need decades to compound into large increases in living standards. For example, 2% vs. 3% growth, which would be a great outcome for a progress agenda, seems like a rounding error to most people even though it is meaningful when compounded. And the politicians championing these policies won’t be around to claim credit when they pay off decades later.Resolving this part of the paradox would involve articulating short-term benefits in some manner, for example that research funding is a jobs engine in the short term. It could also involve bundling longer-term investments like research funding in a particular field with shorter-term concrete results like rollout projects in that same field, which people can start seeing the phsyical results from within a couple of years. * Change aversion. Advocating for far-future progress is selling a sci-fi world, which a lot of people take (and creative media often depict) as dystopian, not utopian. True progress means society changes for the better, delivering better-paid jobs using more advanced technology, and products that bring new conveniences and experiences. But change also means at least some disruption of current ways of life and thinking, and that creates winners and losers in the short term, which in turn creates reasonable anxiety.Resolving this part of the paradox would involve painting a clearer picture of what exactly will change in the short term, paired with explicit transition support for people most directly affected. It could also involve less focus on the far-future altogether, focusing instead on shorter timeframes that could be more easily contextualized. * Lacking urgency. Not only is there not a clear picture, but progress agenda framing lacks urgency, emphasizing future opportunities rather than short-term crisis. Crisis framing comes with inherent urgency that opportunity framing lacks.Resolving this part of the paradox would involve reframing progress agendas as a response to crisis, such as the risk of China leapfrogging us in critical technology and the military and economic consequences that brings. All these resolutions share a common thread: making distant abstractions concrete. I’m increasingly convinced that advocating for progress, whether it be basic research funding or otherwise, requires bundling long-term promises with near-term demonstrations, including explicit workforce transition plans, and framing progress as helping to address competitive threats we’re already facing. Thanks for reading! Subscribe for free to receive new posts or get the audio version. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit gabrielweinberg.com

    4 min
  2. OCT 4

    The overlooked front in the browser wars

    The browser wars are back. Agents are one front; the overlooked front is reducing switching costs in workflows that bridge across search, browse, and AI. Overlapping search, browse, and AI in the browser Traditional web search, browsing, and AI chatting aren’t going away, even as many people will eventually start interacting more with agents that automate tasks. And all three of these core Internet activities increasingly overlap into complex workflows. Many queries you could start either with a web search or an AI chat, and many of those end with wanting to browse to a website. Sometimes you’re on a website and want to ask a question about it. Sometimes you are in a chat and want to run a related web search, and vice versa. The best product lets you complete whole tasks with the least friction. Agents are one approach. The other approach, which keeps users in the driver seat, is to seamlessly integrate search, browse, and AI into one interface. Both are important fronts in the new browser wars. The DuckDuckGo Browser We’ve been working on AI at DuckDuckGo for several years now, with an overall approach to provide private, useful, and optional AI features—including chat and search instant answers—to people who want the productivity benefits of AI without the privacy risks. Our chat service at duck.ai, which allows you to chat privately with popular chatbots and get real-time answers from the web, has the highest satisfaction ratings we’ve ever seen in a new service, and Search Assist, our take on Google’s AI Overviews, is currently our highest-rated search feature. While we’re the second largest search engine on mobile in the U.S., we’re also the 4th largest mobile browser (and #3 on iOS specifically). In fact, we think of ourselves as a browser company at this point. I believe the best search, AI chat, and web user experience is where they are all integrated deeply in the browser (vs. in separate apps or services), supporting workflows that allow you to seamlessly move between modes as needed. Seamless workflows: what we’re creating at DuckDuckGo I believe our browser is so popular because we focus not just on protection but on also continually refining the user experience, aiming for both dependability and delight. That’s why we have been actively working on creating such seamless workflows across search, browse, and AI for some time now. Here are a few examples. Easily accessible AI chat sidebar We have a sidebar in our desktop browser that is easily accessible from any webpage to ask an AI chat question, optionally using page context. From there, you can ask follow-ups, pop it out into a new tab if you need more space, or hide it to return to give more room to the website without losing your place. Toggle between Duck.ai and search via address bar / homepage We now have an optional address bar mode on mobile (coming to desktop next) that allows you to easily toggle between private web search and private AI chat when starting queries. Ideally this makes it just as easy to start a web search or an AI chat as in a standalone search or chat app, and further allows you to switch modes mid-query without re-typing. The toggle is also available on (or coming soon to) our homepage and new tab page. Handoff between search results and chat If you start a web search, we’ve built in ways to more easily jump into chat mode if desired. You can click Duck.ai to go into AI mode, or the chat icon from within Search Assist to ask a specific follow-up question related to the answer, which will carry over the answer and sources as context. Integrating traditional search into Duck.ai From within Duck.ai chat conversations, we automatically search the web for you and provide links to related searches or websites when appropriate, allowing you to jump back into search or browse mode if desired. We’re working on refining these features based on user feedback as well as designing more. The best user experience will improve the workflows of the many people that are bouncing between these modes dozens of times a day. Your thoughts are welcomed! Keeping AI private and optional As mentioned, our overall approach to AI features is to keep them useful, private, and optional. The above illustrates usefulness, so now a few closing words on private and optional. Similar to our search engine, our AI chats are anonymized. In addition, chats are not used to train AI models. There’s a lot more about private AI chats on our help pages. We also make sure everything we do with AI is optional, since we know not all of our users want to use AI for a variety of reasons, and that is fine with us. All AI features can be turned off, in both our browser and our search engine. Thanks for reading! Subscribe for free to receive new posts or get the audio version. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit gabrielweinberg.com

    6 min
  3. SEP 27

    What banning AI surveillance should look like, at a minimum

    I previously called on Congress to ban AI surveillance because of its heightened potential to easily manipulate people, both for commercial and ideological ends. Essentially, we need an AI privacy law. Yet Congress has stalled on general privacy legislation for decades, even in moments of broad public privacy focus, like after the Snowden revelations and the Cambridge Analytica scandal. So, instead of calling for another general privacy bill that would encompass AI, I believe we should focus on an AI-specific privacy bill. Many of the privacy frameworks floated over the years for general privacy regulation could essentially be repurposed to apply more narrowly to AI. For example, one approach is to enumerate broad consumer AI rights, such as rights of access, correction, deletion, portability, notice, transparency, opt-out, human review, etc., with clear processes to exercise those rights. Another approach is to create legally binding duties of care and/or loyalty on organizations that hold AI data, requiring them to protect consumers' interests regarding this data, such as to minimize it, avoid foreseeable harm, prohibit secondary use absent consent or necessity, etc. There are more approaches out there and they are not mutually exclusive. While I have personal thoughts on some of them, my overriding goal is to get something, anything useful passed, and so I remain framework-agnostic. However, I believe within whatever framework Congress adopts, certain fundamentals are non-negotiable: * Ban a set of clearly harmful practices. Start with what (I hope are) universal agreement items, like identity theft, deceptive impersonation, unauthorized deepfakes, etc. The key is explicitly defining this as a category so that we can debate politically harder cases like personalized pricing and predictive policing (both of which I think should also be banned). * Practices near the ban threshold should face higher scrutiny. For example, if we can’t manage to outright ban using AI to assist in law enforcement decisions, at the very least this type of use should always be subject to human review, reasonable auditing procedures, etc. Using AI for consequential decisions, like for loan approvals, or for processing sensitive data, like health information, should at least be in this category. And many practices within this category, especially with regards to consumer AI, should be explicitly opt-in. * Make everything else transparent and optional. Outside the bright-line bans and practices subject to higher scrutiny, any other AI profiling must be transparent and at least come with the ability to opt-out, with only highly limited exceptions where opt‑outs would defeat the purpose, like for legal compliance. Consumers also need meaningful transparency, including prominent disclosures that indicate clearly when you are interacting with an AI system. That means not just generic data collection notices or folding into existing privacy policies, but plain-language explanations shown (or spoken) prominently at the time of processing, which detail what AI systems are inferring and deciding. * States must maintain authority to strengthen, not undermine, federal minimums. I wrote a whole post about why, with the gist being AI is changing rapidly, the federal government doesn’t react to these changes quickly enough, and states have shown they will act, both in AI and privacy. Finally, these protections won't stifle progress. Some oppose any AI regulation because they believe it will hinder AI adoption or innovation. In terms of innovation, privacy makes a good analogy: Despite fears that a “patchwork” of state privacy laws would wreak havoc on innovation by going too far, they haven’t. Innovation hasn’t stalled, and neither have Big Tech privacy violations. In terms of adoption, the backlash against AI is real and rising, and smart regulation can help build the trust necessary for sustained AI adoption, not hinder it. We can get the productivity benefits of AI without the privacy harms. Thanks for reading! Subscribe for free to receive new posts or get the audio version. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit gabrielweinberg.com

    5 min
  4. SEP 21

    On reddit, roughly 500 views = 1 click

    A couple weeks ago I wrote a post titled AI survelliance should be banned while there is still time. Someone submitted it to Hacker News where it got over 600 upvotes, so I decided to submit it myself to reddit (on /r/technology) where it got over 1,100 upvotes. Because I submitted it, I was able to get “Post Insights” (pictured above, left) that indicated the post got 175,000 views. Similarly, substack reports “Traffic sources” (pictured above, right) and shows 310 views came from reddit. This roughly 1:500 ratio is consistent with others I’ve gathered across several different posts and subreddits, so I don’t think it is particularly anomalous. Reddit views count impressions (when posts appear in feeds), making this ratio also comparable to other platforms. The bottom line is lots of views on social doesn’t equate to lots of clicks, and certainly not lots of email subscribers, which experiences another 1:100 type of ratio, that is, clicks to email subscribers. My takeaways: * Social ≠ list growth. Social posts don't build email lists: social post views to new email subscribers is likely less than 50,000 to 1 (500 x 100). * Optimize the headline. If you do chase social views, nail the headline since that's where 99% of the value lives given almost nobody clicks through. For example, you could expose your brand name or logo, or just raise awareness for a crisp point or concept you can fit in a headline. 0.2% is common for ads; I expected higher for a top organic post on a popular subreddit, but this data suggests otherwise. Of course, your mileage may vary, but I thought it would nevertheless be helpful to put out a real data point I found interesting. Thanks for reading! Subscribe for free to receive new posts or get the audio version. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit gabrielweinberg.com

    3 min
  5. SEP 13

    A U.S.-China tech tie is a big win for China because of its population advantage

    China’s population is declining, but UN projections show it will remain at least twice the size of the U.S. for decades. So what? Population size matters because economy size (GDP) matters and GDP = population × output per person. For example: * 100 million people × $50,000 per year = a $5 trillion economy * 1 billion people × $50,000 per year = a $50 trillion economy Then why hasn’t China’s economy already dwarfed America’s? It’s because China’s output per person is still much lower than America’s. China has about 4× the people but about ¼ the output per person. 4 × ¼ = 1. This means that by any standard GDP measure, such as market exchange rates or Purchasing Power Parity, the two economies are in the same ballpark today. OK, but why is China’s economic output per person so much lower than America’s? A primary reason is that large swaths of its workforce aren’t yet at the technological frontier. About 23% of Chinese workers are in agriculture vs. about 1½% in the U.S. However, if China continues to educate its population, mechanize its workforce, and diffuse technology across it, that gap will continue to narrow and per-worker output will continue to climb. Only a decade ago, over 30% of China’s workforce was in agriculture, and per-person output has grown much faster than in the U.S. for decades. Technology is the driving force enabling China to catch up with the U.S. in economic output per person. As long as China diffuses increasingly sophisticated technology through its workforce significantly faster than in the U.S., then it will keep raising output per person relative to the U.S., growing its economy faster. Diffusion is not automatic; it depends on continued private-sector dynamism and sound policy. It isn’t guaranteed, but it is certainly plausible, if not likely. Put another way, a U.S.-China tech tie is a big win for China because of its population advantage. China doesn't need to surpass us technologically; it just needs to implement what already exists across its massive workforce. Matching us is enough for its economy to dwarf ours. If per person output were equal today, China’s economy would be over 4× America’s because China’s population is over 4× the U.S. That exact 4× outcome is unlikely given China’s declining population and the time it takes to diffuse technology, but 2 to 3× is not out of the question. China doesn't even need to match our per-person output: their population will be over 3× ours for decades, so reaching ⅔ would still give them an economy twice our size since 3 × ⅔ = 2. Some may recall similar predictions about Japan in the 1980s that never materialized. But China is fundamentally different: Japan's population peaked at less than ½ the U.S., while China's is over 4× ours. Japan’s workforce had already reached the technological frontier when it stalled out, while China is still far behind with massive room to catch up. And what does China win exactly? China wins a much bigger economy. With an economy a multiple of the U.S., it’s much easier to outspend us on defense and R&D, since budgets are typically set as a share of GDP. Once China’s economy is double or triple ours, trying to keep up would strain our economy and risk the classic guns-over-butter trap. (This is the same trap that contributed to the Soviet Union’s collapse: too much of its economy steered toward military ends.) Alliances could help offset raw population scale, but only if we coordinate science, supply chains, and procurement, which we have not achieved at the needed scale. What if China then starts vastly outspending us on science and technology and becomes many years ahead of us in future critical technologies, such as artificial superintelligence, energy, quantum computing, humanoid robots, and space technology? That’s what the U.S. was to China just a few decades ago, and China runs five-year plans that prioritize science and technology. What can we do about it? Our current per person output advantage is not sustainable unless we regain technological dominance. By dominance, I don’t mean a few months ahead like today’s AI cycles. I mean many years ahead in developing, diffusing, and commercializing frontier science and technology. My takeaway: we need to recognize how quickly we are losing our privileged position to China. If its economy doubles or triples ours, it can outspend us to lock in technological and military dominance. That may not happen, but we shouldn’t bet on it. Instead, we should materially increase effective research funding and focus on our own technology diffusion plans to upgrade our jobs and raise our living standards. What about AI automation? The net job effect of AI automation is hotly debated, but any outcome doesn’t change this calculus. If employment levels remain about the same then the status quo population advantage remains. If net jobs drop dramatically due to an AI-dominated economy, staying ahead in AI systems becomes even more important. So, either way, doing more effective research and development is critical. This should be the most important and bipartisan political issue. Research and technology diffusion isn’t everything, but it is the cornerstone of future prosperity. If we don’t get it right, we definitely lose, and we’re currently not getting it right. Thanks for reading. Subscribe for free to receive new posts or get the audio feed. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit gabrielweinberg.com

    7 min
  6. SEP 6

    AI surveillance should be banned while there is still time.

    All the same privacy harms with online tracking are also present with AI, but worse. While chatbot conversations resemble longer search queries, chatbot privacy harms have the potential to be significantly worse because the inference potential is dramatically greater. Longer input invites more personal information to be provided, and people are starting to bare their souls to chatbots. The conversational format can make it feel like you’re talking to a friend, a professional, or even a therapist. While search queries reveal interests and personal problems, AI conversations take their specificity to another level and, in addition, reveal thought processes and communication styles, creating a much more comprehensive profile of your personality. This richer personal information can be more thoroughly exploited for manipulation, both commercially and ideologically, for example, through behavioral chatbot advertising and models designed (or themselves manipulated through SEO or hidden system prompts) to nudge you towards a political position or product. Chatbots have already been found to be more persuasive than humans and have caused people to go into delusional spirals as a result. I suspect we’re just scratching the surface, since they can become significantly more attuned to your particular persuasive triggers through chatbot memory features, where they train and fine-tune based on your past conversations, making the influence much more subtle. Instead of an annoying and obvious ad following you around everywhere, you can have a seemingly convincing argument, tailored to your personal style, with an improperly sourced “fact” that you’re unlikely to fact-check or a subtle product recommendation you’re likely to heed. That is, all the privacy debates surrounding Google search results from the past two decades apply one-for-one to AI chats, but to an even greater degree. That’s why we (at DuckDuckGo) started offering Duck.ai for protected chatbot conversations and optional, anonymous AI-assisted answers in our private search engine. In doing so, we’re demonstrating that privacy-respecting AI services are feasible. But unfortunately, such protected chats are not yet standard practice, and privacy mishaps are mounting quickly. Grok leaked hundreds of thousands of chatbot conversations that users thought were private. Perplexity’s AI agent was shown to be vulnerable to hackers who could slurp up your personal information. Open AI is openly talking about their vision for a “super assistant” that tracks everything you do and say (including offline). And Anthropic is going to start training on your chatbot conversations by default (previously the default was off). I collected these from just the past few weeks! It would therefore be ideal if Congress could act quickly to ensure that protected chats become the rule rather than the exception. And yet, I’m not holding my breath because it’s 2025 and the U.S. still doesn’t have a general online privacy law, let alone privacy enshrined in the Constitution as a fundamental right, as it should be. However, there does appear to be an opening right now for AI-specific federal legislation, despite the misguided attempts to ban state AI legislation. Time is running out because every day that passes further entrenches bad privacy practices. Congress must move before history completely repeats itself and everything that happened with online tracking happens again with AI tracking. AI surveillance should be banned while there is still time. No matter what happens, though, we will still be here, offering protected services, including optional AI services, to consumers who want to reap the productivity benefits of online tools without the privacy harms. Thanks for reading! Subscribe for free to get new posts or get the podcast. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit gabrielweinberg.com

    4 min
  7. AUG 30

    Progress isn't automatic

    Everyone living today has lived in a world where science and technology, globally, have progressed at a relatively high rate compared to earlier times in human history. For most of human history, a random individual could expect to use roughly the same technology in one decade that they did the previous decade. That’s obviously not the case today. In fact, most of us alive today have little to no personal experience with such a degree of technological stagnation. That’s a good thing because long-term technological stagnation puts an upper bound on possible increases in our collective standard of living. From an earlier post: [W]ithout new technology, our economic prosperity is fundamentally limited. To see that, suppose no breakthroughs occur from this moment onward; we get no new technology based on no new science. Once we max out the hours we can work, the education people will seek, and the efficiency with existing technology, then what? We’d be literally stuck. Fundamentally, if you don’t have new tools, new technology, new scientific breakthroughs, you stagnate. That is, standard of living is fundamentally a function of labor productivity. To improve your standard of living, you need to make more money so you can buy better things, like housing, healthcare, leisure, etc. Once you get the best education you can, and maximize your hours, you are then limited in how much you can make based on how much you can produce, your output. How do you increase your output? Through better technology. At an economy-wide level, therefore, if we’re not introducing new technology, we will eventually hit a maximum output level we cannot push beyond. This is a counterintuitive and profound conclusion that I think gets overlooked because we take technological progression for granted. Science and technology don’t just progress on their own. There were many periods in history where they essentially completely stagnated in parts of the world. That’s because it takes considerable effort, education, organization, and money to advance science and technology. Without enough of any one of those ingredients, it doesn’t happen. And, if technological progression can go slower, perhaps it could also go faster, by better attuning the level of effort, education, organization, and money. For example, I’ve been arguing in this blog that the political debate now around science funding has an incredible amount of status quo bias embedded in it. I believe reducing funding will certainly slow us down, but I also believe science funding was already way too low, perhaps 3X below optimal levels. Put another way, I think a primary goal of government and society should be to increase our collective standard of living. You simply can’t do that long-term without technological progression. A couple of quick critiques I may tackle more in-depth in the future. Some people are worried that we’re just producing more stuff for the sake of producing more stuff, and that’s not really increasing the standard of living. First, with technological progression, the stuff gets both better and cheaper, and that is meaningful, for example, take medicines. Better medicines mean better health spans, and cheaper medicines mean more access to medicine. Second, people buy things, for the most part, on their own free will, and maybe people do want more stuff, and that’s not a bad thing in and of itself, as long as we can control for the negative externalities. Third, controlling for those negative externalities, like combating climate change effectively, actually requires new science and technology. Another common critique is that technology causes problems, for example, privacy problems. As someone who started a privacy-focused company, I’ve been holding this position for decades and continue to do so. But we shouldn’t throw the baby out with the bathwater. We need to do a more effective job regulating technology without slowing down its progression. Thanks for reading! Subscribe for free to receive new posts or get the podcast. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit gabrielweinberg.com

    5 min
  8. AUG 23

    Musings on evergreen content

    FYI: This post is a bit meta—about writing/blogging itself—so it may not be your cup of tea. I’ve been having some cognitive dissonance about blogging. On the one hand, I don’t believe in doing things primarily for legacy purposes, since in the long arc of history, hardly anything is likely to be remembered or matter that much, and I won’t be here regardless. On the other hand, I also don’t like spending a lot of my writing time on crafting for the ephemeral—like a social media post—because it seems that same writing time could be spent on developing something more evergreen. I stopped blogging a decade ago following that same logic, focusing my writing time on books instead, which are arguably more evergreen than blogging. But, I’m obviously back here blogging again, and with that context, here are some dissonant thoughts I’m struggling with: Is the chasing of more evergreen content just a disguised form of chasing legacy? I think not because long-term legacy is about after you’re dead, and I’m not looking for something that will last that long. I’m more looking to avoid the fate of most content that has a half-life of one day, such that my writing can have more of an impact in my lifetime. That is, it’s more about maximizing the amount of impact per unit time of writing than any long-term remembrance. Is there more value in more ephemeral content than I previously thought? I’m coming to believe yes, which is why I’ve started blogging again, despite most blog posts still having that short half-life I’m trying to avoid. Specifically, I think there can be cumulative value in more ephemeral content when it: * Builds to something like a movement of people behind a thematic idea that can spring into action collectively at some point in the future, which is also why I started this up again on an email-first (push) platform. * Helps craft a more persuasive or resonant argument, given feedback from smaller posts, such as how comedians build up their comedy specials through lots of trial and error. This last piece reminds me of Grounddog Day (the movie) where he keeps revising his day to achieve the perfect day, much like you can try to keep refining your argument until it perfectly resonates. In any case, it’s hard to achieve occasional evergreen content if you don’t have an audience to seed it with and if you don’t have a fantastic set of editors to help craft it (which hardly anyone does except in a professional context). That is, putting out more ephemeral content can be seen as part of the process of putting out quality evergreen content, both in terms of increasing its quality (from continuous feedback) and in terms of increasing its reach (from continuous audience building). Should I spend as much time editing these posts as I do? Probably not, given that it is very rare for one of these posts to go viral / become evergreen. The problem is, I like editing. However, trying to stick roughly to a posting frequency and using formats like this one (Q/A headings) really helps me avoid my over-editing tendencies. What is the relationship between blogging frequency and evergreen probability? There’s no doubt that some blog posts are evergreen in that people refer back to them years after they were written (assuming they are still accessible). Does the probability of becoming evergreen have any relationship to the frequency of posting? You can make compelling arguments for both sides: * If you post more, you have more chances to go viral, and most people in a viral situation don’t know your other posts anyway, so the frequency isn’t seemingly inhibiting any particular post from going viral. * If you post less, you will likely spend more time crafting each post, increasing each post’s quality, and thus increasing its chances of virality, which I think (though I am not sure) is a necessary condition of evergreenness. My current sense is that if you post daily, then you are unlikely to be creating evergreen content in those posts. Still, you can nevertheless have a significant impact (and perhaps more) by being top of mind in a faster-growing audience and influencing the collective conversation through that larger audience more frequently. That’s because there does seem to be a direct relationship between posting frequency and audience growth. However, posting daily is a full-time job in and of itself, and one I can’t personally do (since I already have a full-time job) and one I don’t want to do (since I don’t like being held to a schedule and also like editing/crafting sentences too much). So, yes, I do think there is a relationship between frequency and evergreenness, and there is probably some sweetspot in the middle between weekly and monthly that maximizes your evergreen chances. You need to be top of mind enough to retain and build an audience (including through recommendations), you need enough posting to get thorough feedback to improve quality, and you need enough time with each post to get it to a decent quality in the first place. The full-timers also have other options, like daily musings paired with more edited weekly or monthly posts. But, isn’t there a conflict between maximizing audience size and maximizing evergreen probability? Yes, I think there is. If you want to maximize audience size, the optimal post frequency is at least daily, vastly increasing the surface area with which your audience can grow, relative to a weekly posting schedule (or even less). But, that frequency, as previously stated, is not the optimal frequency for optimizing the probability of producing evergreen content. So, you have a tradeoff—audience size vs. evergreen probability. And it is a deeper tradeoff than just frequency, since I also think the kind of content that best grows audience size is much shallower than the kind of content that is more likely to go evergreen. As noted, you can relax this tradeoff with more time input, which I don’t have. So, for right now, acknowledging this tradeoff, I think I’m going to stick to a few, deeper posts a month, maybe edited a bit less though. I’d rather build a tighter audience that wants to engage more deeply in ideas that can last than a larger audience that wants to consume shallower content that is more ephemeral. I hope you agree and I could also use more feedback! Thanks for reading. Subscribe for free to receive new posts or get the podcast. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit gabrielweinberg.com

    7 min

About

Tech, policy, and business insights from the DuckDuckGo founder and co-author of Traction and Super Thinking. gabrielweinberg.com