Week 17 of 2026 marks a decisive shift in global ship recycling markets as geopolitical risk intensifies and supply constraints deepen. In this episode, Grace and Ryan break down the latest developments shaping the industry, including the indefinite extension of the US-Iran ceasefire, renewed escalation in the Strait of Hormuz, and its direct impact on oil, freight, and recycling dynamics. Brent crude has rebounded toward the mid-90 dollar range as geopolitical risk reasserts itself, reversing last week’s demand-driven softness. At the same time, freight markets continue to strengthen, with the Baltic Dry Index reaching multi-month highs and Capesize earnings climbing on sustained Brazil to China iron ore flows. Strong vessel earnings remain the key factor discouraging recycling activity. Currency movements across the sub-continent are reinforcing existing pricing dynamics rather than driving change. The Indian Rupee has weakened, the Pakistani Rupee remains stable, Bangladesh holds within range, and the Turkish Lira has reached fresh lows. Despite these shifts, the core issue remains unchanged: a lack of available tonnage. Bangladesh continues to lead the market with strong pricing, stable currency, and accelerated Letter of Credit approvals. However, with only five weeks remaining before the monsoon season, time pressure is intensifying. Compliance scrutiny remains elevated, with due diligence now embedded across transactions. India retains its structural advantage with Hong Kong Convention compliant yards, but ongoing currency weakness and energy exposure linked to Hormuz disruptions continue to limit competitiveness. Pakistan is emerging as the strongest performer, with firm pricing, stable fundamentals, and a reinforced proximity advantage to Gulf tonnage. Turkey remains uncompetitive for mainstream recycling and is limited to EU regulated tonnage. No major recycling transactions were reported this week, highlighting continued supply tightness across all destinations. As the monsoon window narrows, the market narrative is shifting. The expected release of tonnage is no longer delayed but increasingly deferred, raising the likelihood of a growing backlog into Q2. This episode provides a clear, data-driven view of ship recycling trends, scrap market pricing, freight dynamics, and global maritime risk factors shaping supply decisions. Key Market Developments This Week Indefinite ceasefire extension with escalation in the Strait of Hormuz Brent crude rebounds toward mid-90 dollar levels on geopolitical risk Baltic Dry Index rises to multi-month highs with strong Capesize earnings Vessel earnings remain elevated, discouraging recycling activity Currency movements stable but reinforcing existing pricing structure Bangladesh leads with improving LC flows and strong pricing India remains constrained by currency weakness and energy exposure Pakistan strengthens with firm pricing and Gulf proximity advantage Turkey remains limited to EU compliant recycling segment No major recycling sales reported, confirming supply shortage Q1 tonnage overhang increasingly shifting into a Q2 backlog
