Grain Markets and Other Stuff

Joe Vaclavik
  • 4.9 (340)
  • BUSINESS
  • UPDATED DAILY

Joe Vaclavik and Mackenzie Johnston discuss the grain markets, the business of farming, news related to agriculture, and a variety of other topics.

  1. 3H AGO

    LIMIT DOWN Soybean Trade Following Trump Comments

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌾 Grain markets got slammed Monday, with soybeans limit down after President Trump suggested he may delay his meeting with Xi Jinping. Corn and wheat also moved sharply lower, while expanded soybean limits point to more volatility ahead. 🚛 Brazil’s soybean freight costs are rising fast as higher oil prices push diesel prices higher during peak export season. That’s creating logistical stress, hurting bids, and raising the risk that buyers shift demand to the US or Argentina. 🛢️ Crude oil pulled back Monday but bounced overnight as Middle East attacks continued and uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz remained high. At the same time, China is tightening fertilizer exports, adding even more fuel to an already bullish global fertilizer story. 🫘 NOPA reported a record February soybean crush, while soybean oil stocks jumped to the highest level in years. Export inspections were solid overall, with soybean shipments beating expectations and China taking the majority of the load. 🥩 In the cattle market, a strike at JBS in Greeley adds another wrinkle to an already tight beef supply situation. Thanks for watching—subscribe, like this video, and drop your thoughts in the comments below.

    14 min

  2. 1D AGO

    Trump "May Delay" China Meeting, Soybeans TANK

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌾 Grain Markets & Policy Update President Trump told the Financial Times he “may delay” a summit with Xi Jinping amid the Strait of Hormuz closure. Trade talks between U.S. and Chinese officials continued this weekend, and China reiterated its commitment to 25 mmt of U.S. soybean purchases annually for the next three years, though soybeans fell early Monday after comments about “non-soybean row crops.” 📊 Fund Positioning (CFTC) Speculative money continues to pile into ag markets. Funds bought 147k corn contracts, pushing the net long to the largest since March 2025. Funds also added to soybeans and SRW wheat, and private estimates suggest funds may have been record net long soybeans by Friday’s close. 🌾 Wheat Weather Concerns Chicago wheat rallied Friday on fund buying, higher crude oil, and drought concerns across the Plains. Forecasts show little rainfall in HRW regions over the next two weeks while cold temperatures threaten SRW areas this week. 🇧🇷 Brazil Soybean Harvest Brazil’s harvest is about 57% complete, behind last year but near the five-year average. Conab trimmed its crop estimate slightly to 177.85 mmt, still a record, citing excessive rain and uneven weather. 🧪 Fertilizer Market Developments The U.S. approved Venezuelan fertilizer sales to help offset disruptions tied to the Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz closure. Despite the move, analysts say limited capacity means little short-term relief, with NOLA urea already up sharply. 🏛️ Policy & Farmer Relief Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins says the administration is exploring multiple options to reduce fertilizer costs and acknowledged that additional farmer aid remains on the table if conditions worsen. 👍 If you enjoy these daily market updates, subscribe to the channel and jump in the comments with your thoughts. Your support keeps the independent content coming.

    14 min

  3. 4D AGO

    Fertilizer Companies Are Printing Money… Farmers Aren’t

    🧪 Fertilizer Stocks Surge Shares of CF Industries hit a record high Thursday, jumping as much as 14% intraday—its biggest one-day gain since 2020. CF controls roughly 40% of the North American nitrogen fertilizer market. Profit margins are likely expanding as nitrogen prices surge while the company benefits from cheap North American natural gas. Many global competitors are facing much higher gas costs or supply disruptions. Speculative buying may also be contributing. Shares of Nutrien, which controls about 22% of the North American nitrogen market, rose nearly 8%. It’s worth noting that most ammonia and UAN used in the US is produced domestically, but the US relies heavily on imported urea—roughly 65% of supply comes from imports. 🛢️ CME CEO Warns on Government Oil Intervention CME Group CEO Terry Duffy warned that government intervention in crude oil futures would be a “biblical disaster,” saying markets do not react well when governments attempt to influence pricing. The comments follow reports that the US Treasury may be considering actions—including possible futures market activity—to push oil prices lower. Some traders have pointed to a series of large unexplained trades this week and questioned whether government involvement could be possible. WTI crude plunged from $119/bbl Monday to $77/bbl Tuesday before rebounding sharply. ⛽ Fuel Prices Spike Retail gasoline prices have surged to the highest level since mid-2023. GasBuddy estimates the national average near $3.65/gal, up more than 70 cents from last month. California leads the nation at roughly $5.39/gal, while Washington, Oregon, Nevada, and Arizona all average above $4.00. AAA estimates the national diesel average near $4.89/gal, up $1.22 from last month. Gasoline accounts for roughly 4% of the CPI basket, meaning a 25% increase in gasoline prices could theoretically add about 1% to inflation. 🚢 Oil Jumps as Strait of Hormuz Disruption Continues Crude oil rallied sharply again Thursday. May WTI gained $8.48 to close at $95.70 while Brent settled above $100. Two tankers traveling through Iraqi waters were reportedly struck by Iranian explosives, and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said naval escorts through the strait are possible by the end of the month. 🌱 Soybeans Rally to Best Trade Since 2024 Soybean futures posted their strongest trade since May 2024. The expiring March contract traded as high as $12.23 while the most active May contract reached $12.38. The rally has been fueled by optimism surrounding renewable fuel policy, improving US-China trade sentiment, and sharply higher crude oil prices. Brazilian trade groups are also expressing concern about exports to China. Brazil recently implemented stricter pest and weed inspections after a request from Chinese authorities. As a result, Cargill temporarily halted soybean purchases and shipments to China. Industry groups are now working with officials to resolve the issue and restore trade flows.

    25 min

  4. 5D AGO

    Why Did Cargill Stop Buying Soybeans from Brazilian Farmers??

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌱 Brazil Soybean Export Disruption Cargill has paused Brazilian soybean exports to China after Brazil implemented stricter pest and weed inspections at China’s request. Some shipments have failed the new standards, forcing exporters to halt purchases from farmers and causing local soybean bids to disappear in parts of Brazil. 🛢️ Iran War Drives Fertilizer Concerns Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast highlighted how the Iran conflict and disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz are pushing fertilizer prices higher—just ahead of spring planting. Rising input costs could eventually translate into higher global food prices. 📈 Grain Futures Rally Soybeans surged again Wednesday with May beans closing near $12.14. Corn and wheat also gained as crude oil rebounded and geopolitical tensions escalated, while speculation grows that higher fertilizer and fuel costs could influence US acreage decisions. 🤝 US-China Trade Talks Ahead US and Chinese trade officials will meet in Paris this weekend ahead of President Trump’s planned China visit later this month. Markets are watching closely as analysts suggest new soybean purchases could follow. 🏭 Ethanol Production Jumps US ethanol output climbed to an eight-week high, while inventories dropped. Margins across the Corn Belt remain solidly positive, providing support to corn demand. 🛢️ Record Strategic Oil Release The International Energy Agency announced a record 400 million-barrel emergency oil release, but crude still rallied above $88 as markets worry about prolonged Middle East disruptions. 📊 Inflation Holds Steady US CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year in February, matching expectations. However, the report doesn’t yet reflect the recent surge in energy prices, which could add inflation pressure in the months ahead.

    13 min

  5. 6D AGO

    Grain Markets DRASTICALLY Underperform Broader Commodity Complex

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌾 Ag Markets Lag the Commodity Boom Agricultural markets have badly underperformed the broader commodity complex. The Bloomberg Commodity Index has surged past its 2022 peak and is up more than 19% so far in 2026, while the Bloomberg Ag Subindex (grains, softs, and livestock) has gained less than 5%. Recent strength in commodities has been driven first by gold and silver and more recently by energy markets.  🛢️ Oil Prices Swing on Iran War Headlines Crude oil plunged Tuesday, with WTI falling nearly 12% to $83.45, its biggest single-day drop since 2022. Confusion over tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, talk of easing sanctions on Russian oil, and speculation that the war with Iran could end soon pressured the market. The IEA also proposed what would be the largest oil reserve release in history, adding more downside pressure. 🧪 Fertilizer Supply at Risk The Middle East conflict is threatening fertilizer supplies ahead of spring planting. The Persian Gulf region accounts for nearly half of global urea exports and about 30% of ammonia exports, and disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz could tighten supply. Higher fertilizer prices may encourage farmers to shift acres away from corn toward soybeans, while rising fuel costs could further increase production expenses.  ⛽ Oil Traders Secure Credit Major commodity trading houses are securing billions in additional credit lines from banks as energy market volatility increases. Higher oil prices raise the value of cargo shipments and can trigger large futures margin calls, increasing liquidity needs across the trading sector. 🌴 Biofuel Supply Risks in Southeast Asia Shipping disruptions are pushing methanol prices higher in Southeast Asia, threatening biodiesel production tied to palm oil. Indonesia relies heavily on methanol imports from the Middle East, and prolonged supply issues could disrupt its blending mandates. Meanwhile, Chicago Platts ethanol futures have rallied to about $1.81/gal, with US ethanol margins positive by roughly 10–30 cents across the Corn Belt. 📊 USDA Report Mostly a Non-Event Tuesday’s USDA report contained few surprises. US ending stocks were left unchanged. Global corn stocks increased on larger crops in Brazil, Ukraine, and India, while global wheat and soybean stocks were trimmed slightly. Brazil’s corn crop estimate increased, while Argentina’s corn and soybean crops were reduced. 📉 Bond Traders Turn Bearish Investors have begun betting against US Treasuries as higher oil prices raise inflation concerns. The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed about 20 basis points since late February, and markets are watching today’s CPI report closely for signals on future Fed policy.

    15 min

  6. MAR 10

    End-of-War Hopes Send Oil and Grains Lower

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🇺🇸🪖 War signals easing: Donald Trump suggested the conflict with Iran could be short-lived and nearing an end. He is also considering taking control of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil markets cooled, with crude dropping below $90 after earlier surging above $119. 🌍⛽ 🛢️🤝 Global response: Group of Seven energy ministers will meet to discuss releasing strategic oil reserves, and the U.S. may ease oil sanctions on Russia to help stabilize energy prices. 🌽📉 Grain markets pull back: Profit-taking pushed futures lower. Corn fell ~7¢ to $4.54/bu (after hitting the highest level since May 2025 earlier in the session).Soybeans dropped ~5¢ to $11.96/bu.Wheat declined ~14¢ to about $6.03/bu. The sell-off came as crude oil retreated from overnight highs.📊📅 USDA report day: United States Department of Agriculture will release the Crop Production and WASDE report (11am CST). Expectations: Slight increase in U.S. corn ending stocks 🌽Slight decline in soybean & wheat stocks 🌱🌾Global stocks mostly unchanged Traders are more focused on the upcoming Prospective Plantings report later this month.🚢🌽 Export shipments: Corn: 1.5 mmt, down week-to-week but still strong.Soybeans: 879k mt, near expectations; China bought ~47% 🇨🇳Wheat: 496k mt, well above expectations.🇧🇷🌱 Brazil harvest update: Soybean harvest is 51% complete, the slowest pace in five years, though still near the average. Dry weather in March has helped progress. Second-crop corn planting is 82% complete. 🥩⚠️ Beef plant strike: Workers at a major JBS plant in Greeley, Colorado (capacity 6,000 cattle/day) plan to strike. Impact may be limited because the industry currently has more slaughter capacity than available cattle, allowing feedlots to shift animals to other plants. 👍 If you enjoy these quick updates, make sure to subscribe and hit the notification bell so you never miss a video.

    17 min

  7. MAR 9

    Crude Awakening: Oil Lifts Grain Markets

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌍 Middle East tensions escalated over the weekend as Iran named the son of Ali Khamenei as its new supreme leader. Israel struck oil facilities near Tehran, while Iran threatened attacks on regional energy infrastructure. The Strait of Hormuz remains largely shut due to missile and drone risks, disrupting energy shipments. 🛢️ Oil markets turned extremely volatile. West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Futures briefly surged over 25% to above $110 before easing to around $101, still sharply higher. Production cuts from Kuwait and Iraq — with more expected — are adding to supply concerns. 🌽 Grain markets rallied alongside energy. Soybeans climbed to about $12.20, corn rose near $4.69, and wheat advanced toward $6.26 as higher oil prices lifted agricultural commodities. 🇨🇳 China signaled stability in U.S. relations. Despite the Iran conflict, Beijing indicated it wants steady ties with Washington ahead of a planned meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, with trade officials set to meet in Paris next week. 📊 Funds turned bullish on grains. According to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, money managers bought 65k corn contracts and 16k soybean contracts last week, while trimming 7k SRW wheat contracts. 👍 If you enjoy these quick updates, make sure to subscribe and hit the notification bell so you never miss a video.

    20 min

  8. MAR 6

    "It's Crude Oil, Bro" - Grains Post Fresh Highs

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 Grains Higher as Oil Surges Rising crude oil prices supported grain futures Thursday. May corn gained nearly 10¢ to ~$4.54, soybeans climbed nearly 10¢ to ~$11.79, and Chicago wheat rallied about 16¢ to ~$5.84. WTI crude jumped more than 8%, helping lift ag markets. Fresh highs were posted overnight in several corn, soybean, and wheat contracts. 📈 🛢️ White House Weighs Oil Price Measures The Trump administration is considering steps to cool the recent oil rally, including tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, waiving fuel blending requirements, and even potentially trading oil futures. WTI has surged about 20% since Sunday and moved above $80/bbl for the first time since July 2024. ⛽ 🌱 Brazil Soybean Crop Raised Agroconsult boosted its Brazil soybean crop estimate to a record 183.1 mmt, up 850k from the prior outlook. For comparison: USDA 180 mmt and Conab 178 mmt. 🇧🇷 🚢 Strong Corn Export Sales US corn export sales impressed at 2 mmt (80 mb) last week, well above expectations. Soybeans and wheat were near the low end of estimates, with China and Mexico the top buyers respectively. 🌎 🌧️ Drought Expands in the Corn Belt About 38% of the Corn Belt is now experiencing drought conditions, with deterioration across the High Plains. Corn 51% | Soybeans 53% | Winter Wheat 56% | Spring Wheat 19% | Cattle 57% 🌾 🥩 Senate Bill Targets Meatpacker Structure Senate Democrats introduced legislation that would limit major meatpackers to processing only one type of meat and impose concentration limits in the beef industry. Critics say it could weaken the supply chain and raise costs for consumers.

    20 min
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4.9
out of 5
340 Ratings

About

Joe Vaclavik and Mackenzie Johnston discuss the grain markets, the business of farming, news related to agriculture, and a variety of other topics.

Information

  • Creator
    Joe Vaclavik
  • Years Active
    2020 - 2026
  • Episodes
    1.7K
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © 2026 Grain Markets and Other Stuff
  • Show Website
    Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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