Grain Markets and Other Stuff

Joe Vaclavik
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  • BUSINESS
  • UPDATED DAILY

Joe Vaclavik and Mackenzie Johnston discuss the grain markets, the business of farming, news related to agriculture, and a variety of other topics.

  1. 18H AGO

    Does Anybody Even Work at USDA?? Budget Cuts Impact Crop Data

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🏛️ USDA Workforce Cuts & Data Quality The US Department of Agriculture saw a massive workforce reduction in the first half of the year. Between January and June, more than 20,000 employees left the agency—about 18% of total staff. Most departures were tied to the Trump administration’s voluntary resignation program, which offered up to six months’ pay. Over 15,000 employees accepted the program, while roughly 2,000 resigned and about 1,300 retired. The National Agricultural Statistics Service was hit especially hard, losing more than one-third of its workforce. DTN reported that NASS alone lost 275 employees—about 34% of staff—during the first six months of the year. A USDA Office of Inspector General report shows that another 4,200 employees left between June and October. While USDA says it continues to hire for critical roles and refocus on a “farmer-first” mission, some recent USDA data issues are likely tied to severe understaffing. 🚢 Weekly Export Inspections US soybean shipments were weak last week, landing near the low end of expectations. USDA reported soybean inspections at 870,199 mt, up from the prior week but sharply lower versus last year. About 44% of shipments were headed to China. Corn shipments were strong, coming in at 1.7 mmt, well above last year. Wheat shipments also beat expectations at 627,443 mt. Soybean shipments to China totaled 386,010 mt. Only one cargo moved through the PNW, with the rest shipped out of the Gulf. 🌱 Brazil Soybean Crop Outlook AgRural raised its estimate for Brazil’s soybean crop to a record 180.4 mmt, well above last season and above USDA’s forecast. Crop conditions have been favorable so far, and harvest has begun in parts of Parana and Mato Grosso. Conab is forecasting production slightly lower, but still historically large. Yield potential will depend heavily on weather in the months ahead. 🌍 Wheat Market & Black Sea Tensions Wheat futures moved higher amid escalating Black Sea tensions. Russia increased attacks near Ukraine’s Odesa region, while Ukraine struck Russia’s port of Taman. The disruption risks pushed Chicago wheat futures higher on the session. 📢 USDA Flash Sales & Export Sales USDA reported another flash sale of soybeans to China, with most of the volume booked for the 2025/26 marketing year. Export sales data showed strong soybean sales, led by China, while corn and wheat sales came in lower week-to-week. The report was part of USDA’s ongoing catch-up releases. 💰 Gold & Macro Markets Gold surged to a new record above $4,400 per ounce, supported by geopolitical risk and expectations for interest rate cuts next year. Rising global tensions and uncertainty continue to drive safe-haven demand. Silver prices also moved sharply higher. 👍 If you find this helpful, hit like, subscribe, and drop your thoughts in the comments. 🌾 Staying informed matters—especially right now.

    13 min

  2. 1D AGO

    Scott Bessent Retires from Farming + FBA Payment Estimates

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌾 USDA Farm Aid Update The USDA confirmed it has no plans for additional farm assistance beyond the recently announced $12 billion aid package. Farmers continue to face weak markets, high input costs, and trade disruptions tied to President Trump’s tariffs. Estimated farm losses could reach $44 billion this year, far exceeding available aid. USDA acknowledged the shortfall but cited funding limitations. Payments are expected to be distributed by late February, with Farmer Bridge Assistance Program payment rates due before year-end. 🏛️ Treasury Secretary Sells Farmland Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has completed the sale of his North Dakota farmland following ethics scrutiny. Through a partnership, Bessent owned 5,000+ acres generating rental income. In October, he referred to himself as a “soybean farmer,” drawing criticism because the land was held purely as an investment. Ethics rules required divestment upon taking office, but illiquidity delayed the sale. The land was sold on December 15 for roughly $12.4 million to an entity tied to a longtime friend and business partner. 🌽 Brazil Corn Crop Trimmed Safras & Mercado lowered Brazil’s corn crop estimate to 142.9 mmt, slightly below its prior forecast. The estimate still sits well above USDA’s outlook (131 mmt) and Conab’s 138.8 mmt. Weather remains mostly favorable with abundant rainfall and near-to-above-average temperatures expected. 🇨🇳 China Soybean Imports: No U.S. Beans in November China imported zero U.S. soybeans in November for the third straight month, versus 2.8 mmt last year. Brazil accounted for 72% of November imports (up 49% YoY). Argentina surged, supplying 22% of imports (up 634% YoY). Through November, China imported 103.8 mmt, with the U.S. making up just 16%. Since the October trade truce, traders estimate China has bought 7+ mmt of U.S. soybeans. Recent U.S. shipments should appear in December customs data. USDA’s Export Inspections report today may confirm additional shipments. 🚨 USDA Flash Sale U.S. exporters sold 134,000 mt (5 mil bushels) of soybeans to China for 2025/26 delivery. Total Chinese purchases for the current marketing year now stand at 3.845 mmt (141 mil bushels) across 15 flash sales. 📊 CFTC Fund Positioning The CFTC released another delayed Commitment of Traders report. For the week ending December 9: Funds were net sellers of corn, soybeans, and SRW wheat. Soybean net length remains one of the largest on record. The CFTC expects to be fully current by month-end. 🐄 Bullish Cattle on Feed Report As of December 1: Cattle on feed totaled 11.73 million head, down 2% YoY. November placements fell 11% YoY, the lowest for the month since 1996. Marketings declined 12% YoY, matching expectations. The report is bullish, but holiday timing may limit near-term market reaction. 🏭 More Packing Plant Closures Possible Tight cattle supplies continue to pressure packer margins. Plants are operating below capacity, raising closure risks. Recent closures and cutbacks by Tyson highlight the strain. Restrictions on Mexican feeder cattle imports have worsened supply issues. Even if borders reopen, rebuilding the U.S. herd will take years, not months.

    13 min

  3. 4D AGO

    RUMOR MILL: Did China Just Return to the US Corn Market??

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Corn futures moved higher for a second straight session on Thursday. The Mar26 contract settled near $4.45, supported by strong export demand. Accumulated US corn sales through the end of November are running well ahead of last year. Wheat futures finished higher on short covering but remain near two-month lows. Soybean futures continued to slide, pressured by uncertainty around Chinese buying. There was chatter of possible Chinese purchases of US corn out of the PNW (several cargoes). A USDA flash sale today or Monday would confirm the business. 🥩 Beef Prices Beef prices remain near record highs. Ground beef prices jumped again in November, now well above last year’s levels. Steak prices have also climbed sharply, depending on the cut. The biggest driver continues to be the smallest US cowherd in more than 70 years, paired with strong consumer demand. The Trump administration recently removed tariffs on Brazilian beef imports and called for a price-fixing investigation into the major packers. Despite higher projected beef imports, prices are expected to stay elevated. 🌱 USDA Flash Sales USDA reported a flash sale of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 2025/26 marketing year. A large volume of soybeans has now been sold to unknown destinations this year, with speculation that China accounts for roughly half. 📦 Export Sales Report Corn export sales were strong again, with Japan leading buyers. Soybean sales slowed from the prior week, though China was the top buyer. Wheat sales increased week over week, with Bangladesh leading purchases. 📉 Inflation Update CPI eased in November, coming in below expectations. Food and energy prices were key contributors to slower inflation. The data was collected later than usual due to the government shutdown, raising questions about accuracy. There’s concern inflation could reaccelerate in December. 🌧️ Drought Monitor Scattered precipitation improved drought conditions in parts of Iowa and Ohio. Drought worsened in portions of Kentucky, Illinois, and Missouri. Conditions across the High Plains were mostly unchanged. US Areas Experiencing Drought Corn: 32% Soybeans: 33% Winter Wheat: 36% Spring Wheat: 16% Cattle: 27%

    20 min

  4. 5D AGO

    China has Hit Half the Soybean Target... So Why Are Prices Falling?

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌱 China Soybean Buying—What’s Really Going On? Bloomberg reported overnight that China has quietly bought at least half of its 12mmt US soybean commitment. Anonymous sources say Sinograin purchased roughly 2mmt last week, with buying continuing this week. Official USDA data still shows less than 4mmt of confirmed soybean sales to China so far this marketing year. Flash sales to China over the last 10 days total just 1.2mmt. Meanwhile, roughly 3mmt of US soybeans have been sold to unknown destinations, with the market widely believing China accounts for about half of that volume. 📊 USDA Flash Sales Recap USDA reported multiple flash sales on Wednesday: Soybeans sold to China for 2025/26 delivery Additional soybeans sold to unknown destinations Corn sold to Mexico A cancellation of white wheat to China, originally reported in November This mix of sales and cancellations continues to add noise to the market. 🌾 Grain Futures – Wheat Weighs on the Complex Chicago wheat futures fell for a fourth straight session, hitting their lowest level in nearly two months as global supplies remain ample and peace talks between Russia and Ukraine continue. Despite the China buying headlines, soybean futures also declined for a fourth straight day. Corn was the lone bright spot, posting modest gains, though wheat weakness limited upside. ⚠️ Russia / Ukraine – Export Disruptions Escalate Russia has intensified attacks on Black Sea ports and energy infrastructure in southern Ukraine, forcing temporary shutdowns at several grain terminals. Ukraine has shipped just 36% of its contracted wheat exports for the month so far. Rail infrastructure feeding ports has also been targeted, contributing to a sharp year-over-year decline in wheat exports this marketing year. 💰 Fund Positioning – CFTC Catch-Up Report The CFTC released another delayed Commitment of Traders report. Large money managers were net buyers of corn, soybeans, and SRW wheat. The soybean fund long remains one of the largest on record, keeping downside risk elevated if sentiment shifts. The CFTC expects to be fully current by the end of December. ⛽ Ethanol – New All-Time Production High US ethanol production surged to a new record, while ethanol stocks declined. According to Reuters data, ethanol margins have strengthened, now running modestly positive across much of the Corn Belt. 📌 Bottom Line China appears to be buying more US soybeans than official data suggests—yet futures keep falling. We’ll explain why the market doesn’t care (yet) and what actually needs to change to stabilize prices.

    13 min

  5. 6D AGO

    Soybeans Spiral, Healthcare Premiums to Wreck Farmer Finances

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🏥 ACA Health Insurance & Farmers Enhanced premium tax credits under the Affordable Care Act are scheduled to expire in 2026, which could lead to huge increases in health insurance premiums. Farmers, ranchers, and other self-employed individuals are especially exposed since they don’t have employer-sponsored coverage. Some families could see premiums jump by more than $20,000 per year. Affordable ACA plans have played a key role in supporting rural economies. Without them, more families may be forced into off-farm work, and rural hospitals could feel added financial strain. As an alternative, 13 state Farm Bureaus now offer non-ACA-compliant health plans that are significantly cheaper. This issue impacts nearly every business owner and self-employed worker—and could weigh on the broader economy as disposable income shrinks. 🌱 Grain Markets Soybean futures continued lower on Tuesday. The Jan26 contract fell 9 cents, settling near $10.63, as traders unwound long positions amid weak US export demand and expectations for a massive Brazilian crop. Corn and wheat also finished lower. Despite solid export demand, Mar26 corn slipped about 3 cents to close near $4.37. Chicago wheat was pressured by ample global supplies, with March futures down roughly 11 cents near $5.10. 🇨🇳 China & Soybeans China’s state stockpiler Sinograin auctioned roughly 323,000mt of imported soybeans, about 63% of the total offered, to make room for incoming US supplies. Another auction later this week will offer 550,000mt, and traders expect around 4mmt to be sold in this auction cycle. The move comes despite ample domestic inventories, as Beijing has pledged to increase purchases of US soybeans. 👷 US Labor Market The labor market remains sluggish. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 64,000 in November, following a sharp 105,000 decline in October, the largest drop since 2020. Much of the weakness was tied to falling federal employment during the shutdown. The unemployment rate climbed to 4.6%, the highest since 2021, reflecting softer hiring and higher labor force participation. Part-time employment for economic reasons and long-term unemployment also increased. 🛢️ Oil & Energy Oil prices tumbled Tuesday. WTI crude fell 2.7% to $55.27, the lowest level since February 2021. The drop was driven by ample global supplies, rising OPEC+ production, strong US output, and growing optimism around a potential Russia-Ukraine peace agreement. Lower crude prices have pushed US gasoline prices below $3 per gallon, the cheapest level in nearly five years.

    11 min

  6. DEC 16

    Soybean Demand: STRONG Crush and TERRIBLE Exports

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌱 NOPA Soybean Crush NOPA released its November crush report on Monday US soybean crush hit an all-time November record Crush was lower than October’s record, but well above last year End-of-month soybean oil stocks jumped sharply, reaching a 7-month high Oil stocks also came in above trade expectations 📉 Soybean Futures Pressure Soybean futures extended losses on Monday The Jan26 contract settled near $10.72 Market pressure continues from: Slow Chinese buying Expectations of a massive Brazilian crop hitting export channels A near-record speculative long position that leaves the market vulnerable to liquidation 🚢 Export Inspections Update US soybean inspections disappointed last week Shipments were well below last year’s pace About one-quarter of soybeans were headed to China Corn and wheat inspections were near the high end of expectations Northern Plains soybean basis remains weak due to limited PNW movement 🧪 Fertilizer Market News The US lifted sanctions on Belarusian potash over the weekend US fertilizer stocks fell sharply on Monday in response Belarus still faces logistical hurdles, limiting near-term impact Belarus accounts for only a small share of US potash supply Trump’s threat of tariffs on Canadian fertilizer remains the much bigger market risk 📦 USDA Flash Sales USDA reported additional flash sales on Monday Soybeans sold to China for next marketing year delivery Corn sold to unknown destinations 📑 Export Sales Report (Catch-Up Edition) USDA released another outdated export sales report Soybean sales were strong, led almost entirely by China Corn sales slipped from the prior week Wheat sales landed near the low end of expectations

    12 min

  7. DEC 15

    Fund Traders LOVED Soybeans.... a Month Ago

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌱 Soybean, Corn & Wheat Markets Soybean futures plunged on Friday, with the Jan ’26 contract falling nearly 17 cents to around $10.77 — the lowest level since late October. The pressure came from slowing U.S. export demand as the seasonal export window closes and growing expectations for a massive Brazilian crop. Brazilian soybeans are expected to hit the export market by mid- to late January and will likely be priced at a discount to U.S. supplies, adding further downside risk. Corn and wheat futures also finished the day lower. 📊 CFTC Commitment of Traders (COT) The CFTC released another outdated, catch-up COT report. As of November 18, large money managers were net buyers across the grain complex. Funds were heavily long soybeans, sitting just shy of an all-time record. Notably, this was the exact time the soybean market peaked. Private estimates during the government shutdown significantly underestimated fund length, making this information largely useless from a grain marketing standpoint in real time.  🚢 USDA Flash Sales & China Watch USDA reported multiple flash sales on Friday, including soybeans sold to China, soybean meal sold to Mexico, and corn sold to unknown destinations. Officially, China has purchased just over 3 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans for the current marketing year. However, trade chatter suggests actual purchases could be much larger due to sales listed as “unknown” and potential non-reportable purchases during the shutdown. Some analysts estimate total Chinese buying could be materially higher.  🏗️ Hedge Funds Move Into Physical Commodities Hedge funds and trading firms are increasingly investing directly in physical commodities like pipelines, storage, power generation, and energy infrastructure. The goal is to gain better data, market insight, and diversification during volatile years. While this can create new profit opportunities, it also puts hedge funds in direct competition with major global trading houses.  ⛽ 2026 Biofuel Quotas Delayed The EPA is expected to delay finalizing 2026 biofuel quotas until next year. The agency is still reviewing public comments and plans additional stakeholder meetings. The decision could become part of a broader negotiation between oil and agricultural interests. While higher biofuel mandates could help farmers, expectations remain muted, with year-round E15 already largely conceded. A mandated E15 requirement would be the only real surprise.

    12 min

  8. DEC 12

    Farmers Need Lower Input Costs, But Trump Wants to Tariff Fertilizer AGAIN

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌱 Fertilizer Markets Fertilizer stocks surged Thursday after Ukrainian drones struck two fertilizer plants in western Russia. While the facilities represent a small share of global capacity, the market is now pricing in higher geopolitical risk and potential supply chain disruptions. Earlier this week, President Trump threatened “very severe tariffs” on Canadian fertilizer if needed to boost US production. Canada is the largest supplier of potash to the US, making this a key risk point for US growers. For many US corn farmers, fertilizer is the 3rd largest expense behind land and machinery. Nitrogen (N): ~65–75% of total fertilizer costs Potash (K): ~10–20% of total fertilizer costs Last month, the Trump administration lifted tariffs on most fertilizer imports, including urea, ammonium nitrate, UAN, ammonium sulfate, TSP, DAP, and MAP. 🌎 Export Flash Sales Soybeans: 264,000 mt to China (25/26) 266,000 mt to unknown destinations (25/26) Corn: 186,000 mt to unknown destinations (25/26) 📦 Weekly Export Sales (Catch-Up Report) Corn: Strong sales at 2.4 mmt, well above expectations Mexico was the top buyer Soybeans: Near the low end of expectations but improved week-over-week Germany was the largest buyer Small China cancellation Wheat: Sales beat expectations sharply Unknown destinations led buying 🇧🇷 South America Update Conab trimmed Brazil’s soybean crop forecast to 177.1 mmt Still a record crop if realized The cut reflects dry November weather and some replanting About 90% planted as of early December First exportable supplies expected early January Total exports estimated at 112 mmt 🌦️ US Drought Monitor Corn Belt saw cold temps, with most moisture falling as snow Drought mostly unchanged, but worsened in parts of MO and IN High Plains dryness ticked higher in SE Kansas and NE Oklahoma Areas Experiencing Drought: 🌽 Corn: 31% 🌱 Soybeans: 31% 🌾 Winter Wheat: 34% 🌾 Spring Wheat: 16% 🐄 Cattle: 25%

    18 min
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About

Joe Vaclavik and Mackenzie Johnston discuss the grain markets, the business of farming, news related to agriculture, and a variety of other topics.

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  • Creator
    Joe Vaclavik
  • Years Active
    2020 - 2025
  • Episodes
    1.6K
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © 2025 Grain Markets and Other Stuff
  • Show Website
    Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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