Grain Farmers of Ontario

Grain Farmers of Ontario
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Grain Farmers of Ontario is the province’s largest commodity organization, representing Ontario’s 28,000 barley, corn, oat, soybean and wheat farmers.

Episodes

  1. 1D AGO

    Market Trends Report – March & April 2026

    US and the World In mid-March it is that time of year when planters are either rolling in the southern regions of the American corn belt or are being adjusted for the planting season that is almost upon us. It has been an eventful winter to say the least with prices advancing especially in the last few weeks with war breaking out in the Middle East between the United States, Israel, and Iran. War markets are never easy to explain, always filled with uncertainty. It will make it challenging as all of our planters get ready to roll. Amid all of this upset, the USDA released their latest WASDE report on March 10th. The March USDA report was a bit of status quo compared to reports of the past. There were no domestic changes for corn soybeans and wheat but a few changes globally. US corn production is still pegged at 17.02 billion bushels with the yield forecast of 186.5 bushels per acre. This is a huge number which should remain a benchmark for all producers this year. Total domestic use for US corn is still pegged at 13.17 billion bushels with ending stocks coming in at 2.127 billion bushels. USDA increased Brazil’s corn production by 1 MMT to 132 MMTs. Argentinian Production was decreased by the same amount down to 30.7 MMTs. These were all the same from the February report, but the US crush was increased slightly to 2.575 billion bushels. The total soybean usage was projected at 4.262 billion bushels reflecting the slight increase in the soybean crush. Soybean ending stocks are still projected to come in at 350 million bushels. Brazilian soybean production was kept the same at 180 MMTS but Argentinian soybean production was actually decreased slightly down to 48 MMTs. US domestic wheat stocks were unchanged from 931 million bushels. Globally, wheat stocks were down slightly from the February report. On March 14th corn, soybeans and wheat futures were higher than the last Market Trends report. May 2026 corn futures was at $4.67 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.91 bu. The May 2026 soybean futures was at $12.25 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $11.61. The May 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.13 a bushel. The Minneapolis May 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.45 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $6.75 a bushel. The nearby oil futures as of March 13th closed at $98.71/barrel much higher vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $62.89/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.16/gallon, up vs the $2.03/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report. The Canadian dollar noon rate on March 13th, 2026, was .7291 US, down vs the .7345 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate remained at 2.25%. Ontario Winter is still holding on in Ontario although there was a bit of a thaw in early March where much of the snow disappeared. On the weekend of March 14th some areas of Ontario were hit again with heavy snow. The winter wheat that has emerged from the snow looks quite good at this time. Producers will be hoping for good weather ahead. Basis levels for grains have increased slightly over the last 30 days partly related to the Canadian dollar still under $0.73 and or the appreciation in grain futures value. There is not as much grain in Ontario bins as there usually is especially in eastern Ontario and basis does reflect this. Basis levels in Ontario are also fluid and will probably continue to be throughout 2026 until harvest time. Yes, we still have a lot of empty space in eastern Ontario because of the drought last year. We will have to see how that changes depending on the crop develops this summer. On top of that we always have the movement of the Canadian dollar which will affect basis levels to producers. All of this is a moving target and something that producers always have to have their eye on. Old crop corn basis levels are $1.30 to $2.28 over the May 2026 corn futures on March 13th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.15 to $1.60 over Dec 2026 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $3.25 to $4.04 over the May 2026 futures. New crop soybeans range from $3.04 to $3.34 over the November 2026 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are approximately $7.56. For July 2026 new crop the bid is in the $7.40/bu range. On March 13th the US replacement price for corn was $6.89/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/ The Bottom Line Forget about what you been thinking, it’s all about the war now. About four years ago we saw what the Ukraine and Russia war did to the commodity market with wheat exploding higher. However, it was unexpected to some extent when the Americans and Israelis attacked Iran about 12 days ago and with that it upset the grain market apple cart. Funds who had been net short the market suddenly were exiting their positions. Also too, the price of oil exploded and there was spillover effect in grains. It simply is a new world in 2026. Keep in mind it is so difficult to know where we’re going. Much of it will depend on how long it lasts but is likely to last long. The oil market was languishing in the $50s and $60s but now pushed up toward $120.00 briefly on the futures market. The Strait of Hormuz have been blocked which is transit to about 20% of the world’s oil. In many ways this is a Black Swan we didn’t see coming. For a world that is full of grain seemingly only a few weeks ago now there is a completely different planning horizon. Prices have risen substantially over the last month and especially in the last two weeks. This is happening despite bearish fundamentals that have kept the lid on grain prices for quite some time. It will also probably raise the specter of extreme volatility as we could be facing a world calamity not seen in quite a few years. The Brazil harvest in soybeans is coming to a completion and it is record setting once again. As these soybeans are being harvested, planters are in the fields with the second crop of corn for Brazil. This means that there will not only be the war risk, but we are also in a weather market watching how much moisture these new corn plants will be provided. There is a world of risk out there. Commodity Specific Comments Corn With the war on going, it is no secret that prices are going higher for both fuel and fertilizer. With corn a bigger user of fertilizer than soybeans it would seem that the funds are remaining a little bit more neutral on the corn acres that could be planted this spring. We will find that out in the March 31st USDA report. In the meantime, to some extent corn will follow the price of oil and the funds are setting up to go long depending on the immediate future. At the present time they don’t have a big, long position, but this could certainly change and when it changes to could change in a big way. However, the state of acres for 2026 is still in flux. Earlier the USDA had pitched 94 million acres of corn in their outlook conference. The May 2026 corn contract is currently priced at 11.25 cents lower than the July 2026 contract a neutral to bearish indication of old crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The May 2026 corn futures contract is at the 19th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Soybeans The soybean market has been fairly effusive even before the war started. It also is sensitive to the social media posts coming out of the White House. Earlier, the American president had said that he hoped China would come in and buy an extra 8 MMTs of soybeans in the immediate future. Since then, there hasn’t been any American beans sold and Brazilian beans are still a dollar a bushel below American values. There is a meeting scheduled in Beijing between President Trump and President Xi at the end of March and early April. It’s hard to know now exactly what will come from this meeting especially with the war going on. However, it has not been beyond the realm of possibility that new soybean buying announcements would come from this meeting. However, the new price volatility caused by the war may eat that narrative alive. Earlier the USDA had mused about 85 million soybean acres for this year in the United States. That number will be refreshed on March 31st, and it certainly also will be enhanced by any announcement coming from the potential meeting of the leaders in Beijing. The May 2026 soybean contract is currently priced 12.5 cents below the July contract considered bearish for soybean demand. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The January 2026 soybean contract is currently at the 33rd percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Wheat There is wheat everywhere but keep in mind that this is war and wheat prices are up about a dollar a bushel since the end of January. With the war seemingly chasing out the market bears, it is likely that wheat prices will be a bit more sensitive to weather concerns going forward such as dryness in many of the worlds production areas where wheat is coming out of dormancy. It’s also true that wheat might just be explosive based on a volatile nature of war in the Strait of Hormuz. It’s hard to imagine wheat prices going back down in this environment but that spectre also exists. In Ontario it is an important time coming up for wheat about to break dormancy. Fields in the deep southwest of the province are already very green and nitrogen application will likely take place very soon for the early birds. According to Agricorp there are 1,046,568 wheat acres this year in Ontario. Currently prices a

    11 min

  2. FEB 17

    Market Trends Report – February & March 2026

    US and the World Winter is still with us but if you look really hard you might see signs of spring. It is the time of year which can be quiet on farms across the greater North American corn belt. However, as the days go by their surely will be more warmth coming over the land with visions of planters heading out into the field. At the same time in South America, harvest and planting are in full swing. That is creating all kinds of variables for market action. Then there is the USDA which chimed in with their latest WASDE report on February the 10th. As reports go the February report is often quiet because it’s sandwiched between the bigger January reports and the later Prospective Planting report in late March. This USDA report did not veer from that script. In the report US corn ending stocks were reduced 100 million bushels but they’re still the largest in seven years. Also too, world stocks outside of the US and China are still tight and there were no changes to South American corn estimates. Corn exports were increased by 100 million bushels up to 3.3 billion bushels which is a record for corn exports. Corn exports are sitting at 2.127 billion bushels. On the soybean side of the ledger US balance sheet remain unchanged from January. There was an increase in production in Brazil which had been widely expected. Brazil soybean production is now expected to be 180 MMTs which is up to 2 MMTs from last month. Simply put, it was a quiet report for soybeans. US soybean ending stocks remained at 350 million bushels. World wheat ending stocks or increased 5 million bushels from last month currently sitting at 931 million bushels. On February 13th corn, soybeans and wheat futures were higher than the last Market Trends report. March 2026 corn futures was at $4.31 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.64 bu. The March 2026 soybean futures was at $11.33 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $11.13. The March 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.48 a bushel. The Minneapolis March 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.71 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $6.14 a bushel. The nearby oil futures as of February 13th closed at $62.89/barrel higher vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $59.44/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.03/gallon, up vs the $1.97/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report. The Canadian dollar noon rate on February 13th, 2026, was .7345 US, up vs the .7188 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate remained at 2.25%. Ontario In Ontario it has been an icy cold winter leading up to February the 14th. Parts of Ontario in the snow belt north and West of London as well as toward Barrie have an inundated with snow most of the winter and relief would be welcome. Hopefully this created an environment where winter wheat could survive underneath all the snow. Producers will be looking for some respite as we go into March to facilitate grain movement and production plans for 2026. In the meantime, Agricorp released final figures on last year’s crop putting Ontario corn at 191 bushels per acre and soybeans at 46 bushels per acre. Ontario basis levels have hardly changed for grains over the last 30 days since the last Market Trends report. In fact, there’s been a slight improvement in some parts of Ontario with eastern Ontario showing historical advantage on the corn basis. Very surely some of this is because of the terrible yields that were experienced in parts of eastern Ontario last year. As we move ahead it’s pretty clear in this part of Ontario and into Quebec that they will need corn to satisfy their needs. The Canadian dollar remains a significant stimulus to cash grain prices. This has happened even though the Canadian dollar did gain almost $0.02 over the last 30 days. Part of the issue has to do with the American dollar sinking and inversely the Canadian dollar gaining within that paradigm. This will likely continue because the American dollar is seeing pressure it is not seen before partly resulting from some of the political moves being made in the United States. For instance, the American President recently commented that he thought it was a good thing that the US dollar was going down. Foreign exchange markets are more complicated than that but their trade algorithms feed on those comments too. As we move ahead Ontario grain producers should be focused on the value of the Canadian dollar as always but also keep abreast of what’s happening with the US dollar. The two are highly inversely interrelated. Old crop corn basis levels are $1.35 to $2.15 over the March 2026 corn futures on Feb 13th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.15 to $1.47 over Dec 2026 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $3.10 to $3.69 over the March 2026 futures. New crop soybeans range from $2.90 to $3.06 over the November 2026 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are approximately $7.02. For July 2026 new crop the bid is in the $6.72 bu. range. On February 13th the US replacement price for corn was $6.28/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/ The Bottom Line We are at somewhat of a standstill in grain prices. Or is this the start of something new even to the point of kidding ourselves for a bit thinking it might be the start of a bull market. All three grains have shown a little bit of resilience in the last 10 days meaning something might be up. That might be China coming in and buying US corn and even more soybeans and it may not be. However, corn prices have recovered from the downdraft from the January USDA report and soybeans have moved much higher. Geopolitics is always a factor when it comes to grain prices and China is usually part of that equation. In fact, you might say it’s always old news. Last year they didn’t buy American soybeans until there was some type of dialogue with the American President. This year there seems to be more optimism by the Americans that the Chinese might come around. Part of that is based on their better relationship and the specter that President Trump will be visiting China in April. In many ways this is key. You’ve got to believe in the run up to that meeting there will be social media posts from the President about selling more soybeans and corn to China. Our trading algorithms feed on that phenomena. The only way to capture market opportunities from this is to have standing market orders ready. A weather market it continues to be if you consider South American production. The Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics recently reported that the Safrinha corn planting had reached 46% by mid-February. This is a touch behind where it usually is. At the same time keep in mind that on the Chinese Dalian corn futures exchange prices have been rising since last October. Corn is not quite like wheat; it is grown mostly in the United States but even still producers should keep an eye on market information about the Safrinha crop. Traders in China are looking at that too. As we move into March there will certainly be a shift for some producers from old crop to new crop. Keep in mind that every day of the year is an opportunity to buy and sell grain. 2025 did not offer a very long period of profitable grain pricing opportunities. Who knew we would see some of our largest price increases during harvest time? As we move ahead the March Prospective Planting report looms as a major market mover. However, in the relatively bearish environment which we find ourselves in a big change in acres might not be significant to market action until we actually see what gets planted in late June and July. Commodity Specific Comments Corn As we all know demand for US corn continues to be record setting. This is a very good thing considering that we had 17.02 billion bushels last year. Add a certain point there will be a small tussle for acres between corn and soybeans. Will corn acres be about 95 million this year compared to 99 last year? If they are that is reduction of 4 million acres of corn a fairly major move in the market environment we are in now. We will see if that happens and of course there will be estimates released in late February on the number of acres, but the big prediction will be coming at end of March USDA Prospective Plantings report. Any variation on the script like China buying US corn because there’s has quality concerns will certainly weigh on prices. Simply put, there is so much risk for price as we look ahead toward blowing off the dust on those corn planters. The March 2026 corn contract is currently priced at 10.5 cents lower than the May 2026 contract a neutral to bearish indication of old crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The March 2026 corn futures contract is at the 11th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Soybeans There is a lot going on in soybeans, possibly increased China buying, a resilient soybean oil market not only with exports abroad but also increased domestic consumption within the United States and possible quality issues in Brazil. For instance, all of these factors are relevant, but the earlier harvested soybeans in the northern part of Mato Grosso have been affected by very rainy weather. Needless to say, with the USDA predicting 180 MMTs of soybeans being produced in Brazil surely it is a minor factor. Brazil continues to be the titan of soybean production and harvest is continuing there at this time. Keep in mind that Brazil has had 19 straight season of production expansion and 75% of

    12 min

  3. JAN 19

    Market Trends Report – January & February 2026

    Written by Philip Shaw BSc(Agr.)MSc. Email: philip@philipshaw.ca Social Media X @Agridome US and the World January always represents a pivotal time in grain markets as well as farms across the Great North American corn belt. There is always a recalibration but much of it usually has to do with the January USDA report which represents the final numbers on the crop put to bed last year. Future spreads and basis are important but so are the numbers in these USDA reports as they are dialed in to the trading algorithms which generate futures prices around the clock. The January report historically can be explosive for volatility. This year was one of those years. On January 12th the USDA raised corn production to 17.02 billion bushels increasing yield by half a bushel as well as increasing harvested acreage. The corn yield is now forecast to be 186.5 bushels per acre which was way above pre report estimates. The USDA also bumped harvested acreage by 1.3 million acres pushing it up to 91.3 million acres. This was a shock to the market and nearby corn futures plummeted $0.24 on the day. Old crop carryover was bumped up to 1.551 billion bushels while new crop carryover was increased to 2.227 billion bushels. While the corn number was wildly bearish, soybeans were much more benign in comparison to corn. The USDA had a slightly increased harvested acreage of 80.4 million. It kept yield unchanged at 53 bushels per acre putting the total domestic crop at 4.262 billion bushels in 2025. The new crop ending stocks for soybeans totaled 350 million bushels which was up 60 million bushels from last month. The USDA increased Brazilian production to 178 MMTs while keeping Argentinian production at 48.5 MMTs. USDA set planted area for winter wheat in 2026 to be 33 million acres which is down 1% from last year and 2% from 2024. On January 16th corn and soybean futures were lower than the last Market Trends report. Wheat was higher. March 2026 corn futures was at $4.24 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.49 bu. The March 2026 soybean futures was at $10.76 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $10.69. The March 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.18 a bushel. The Minneapolis March 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.65 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $6.04 a bushel. The nearby oil futures as of January 16th closed at $59.44/barrel higher vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $57.44/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $1.97/gallon, down vs the $2.04/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report. The Canadian dollar noon rate on January 16th, 2025, was .7188 US, down vs the .7263 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate remained at 2.25%. Ontario This is a more classic Canadian winter than we’ve had in the near past. Snow and cold temperatures have inundated large parts of the province which can be a double-edged sword. Yes, it is normal Canadian January weather but at the same time there is still some Ontario corn left out in the field. Also too, the snow cover will provide some insulation for the winter wheat lying dormant underneath it. Basis levels are either the same or have increased slightly since the last Market Trends report. This reflects the Canadian dollar still fluttering below the 72 cent US level. The Ontario corn basis level is similar to what it has been in the past few years with the eastern Ontario basis being much higher than southwestern Ontario. This is historical but it also reflects dry weather experienced in much of eastern Ontario this year hurting corn yields. Both corn and soybeans will be exported out of Ontario and Quebec this year. All of it is a reflection of price but it’s also a reflection of infrastructure. Port expansions and improvements at ADM Windsor, Port of Oshawa, the new Picton terminals, the Port of Goderich, and the Port of Johnstown will only help grain movement. Exports are one thing and value-added domestic opportunities are another. The latter would be preferable and hopefully many new value-added projects are in the pipeline Old crop corn basis levels are $1.35 to $2.26 over the March 2026 corn futures on Jan 16th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.05 to $1.45 over Dec 2026 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $3.10 to $3.55 over the March 2026 futures. New crop soybeans range from $2.91 to $3.11 over the November 2026 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are approximately $6.61. For July 2026 new crop the bid is in the $6.57 bu. range. On January 16th the US replacement price for corn was $6.32/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/daily-commodity-report/ The Bottom Line The USDA hit us pretty hard with the big surprise hardly anybody expected. When you see the USDA final number on corn come in outside the various trade estimates it means almost everybody was surprised. Of course, the biggest surprises were the increase in yield and the much bigger corn harvested acreage increase. One might ask how does the USDA predict 4.5 million acres of corn harvested then they predicted last July? It’s fuel for the conspiracy theorists. It will likely be a few years before we truly understand what happened. However, one theory that is being reported is the good crop with good yields filled up bunker silos with silage earlier than normal. What happens when these silos are full, then the rest of the corn goes into the pipeline and shows up in harvested acreage. There was a 1.3 million acre increase in harvested acres which would result in 200 million bushels of additional yield. The market simply was not expecting this. The USDA report was not particularly bearish on soybeans compared to corn. However, acreage was up slightly. Keep in mind that crush statistics are very good in the United States reflecting their commitment to biodiesel. For instance, the soybean crush is up approximately 285 million bushels over the last two years. There are commitments for an increased share of soybeans going to biodiesel. In 2025 this number was 3.3 billion gallons for biodiesel. The hope is to get it up to 5.5 billion gallons in 2026 and beyond. This blending credit equation is possibly being delayed by the supreme court considering the legality of tariffs. The blending credit is highly political and will be affected by the run up in the midterm elections. Commodity Specific Comments Corn 17.02 billion bushels of corn was a real wake up call for the corn market and it is hard to shake the big negativity. Keep in mind that old crop took the brunt of this and December corn held up relatively well. Last year December corn did not get above $4.80 a bushel and at the present time we’re hovering around $4.50 a bushel. It is splitting hairs but in a bearish environment that might be a positive. Keep in mind that the 2.2 billion bushel ending corn stocks created by such a big crop puts a cushion on any price increase for old crop corn. However, keep in mind there is lots of risk ahead. We still have to get through the Brazilian Safrinha crop as well as our new North American corn crop. We are always only one weather event away from a price increase. The world needs the corn as demand is so strong. The March 2026 corn contract is currently priced at 7.25 cents lower than the March 2026 contract a neutral indication of old crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The March 2026 corn futures contract is at the 9th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Soybeans Believe it or not even with the slightly bearish tone in soybeans from the USDA report, prices are still in a yearly uptrend. The decrease in price since mid-October might have dialed in a lot of the bearishness of late. Keep in mind that the gorilla in the room China has already bought 12 MMTs of American soybeans and there is unlikely to be more. Trade wars might be easy to win but it’s pretty clear China is looking elsewhere for their soybeans. Who could blame them with Brazil set to produce another 178 MMTs soybean crop. This continues to weigh on soybean prices in both the short and long term. The March 2026 soybean contract is currently priced 11 cents below the March contract considered neutral for soybean demand. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The January 2026 soybean contract is currently at the 13th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Wheat Wheat is bearish but what else is new. In fact, with such a bearish USDA report you would think that maybe wheat would join in sending everything down. However, that did not happen in many ways the wheat complex shook off the bearish nature of the move in corn. Also too, the Chicago futures contract has holding above the $5.00 level when there are probably a few reasons to go lower. In many ways, you might say that the wheat prices have the negativity already priced in. Keep in mind and the last USDA report had wheat domestic stocks and global stocks raised. With Ontario wheat currently underneath, snow cover it is always hard to tell where we’re at. With the likely number around 1 million acres of wheat Ontario producers will be hoping for better prices. At the present time $6.57 for wheat off the combine this July doesn’t have a lot of people rushing to the sales trigger. However, we must remember that price is much better than we received last summer. As January grows older and February comes about, Ontario wheat producers will be hoping for better price prospects ahead. The Canadian dollar fluttering under $0.72 US continues to be

    12 min

  4. 12/15/2025

    Market Trends Report – December 2025 & January 2026

    US and the World The changeover in the calendar year always represents a shifting of the gears in our grain marketing outlook. At least in North America it seems that way with winter settling in with most of the crops in the bin. At the same time in South America, it is the middle of their summer. This means that all of the marketing factors with regard to crop weather are weighing into the price discovery equation. Needless to say, the mechanics of markets go on whether you change gears or not. It has been an incredibly good growing season this past year in North America. On December the 9th the USDA weighed in with their latest WASDE report. The December USDA report is usually a non-starter wedged between harvest in the United States and the January report which is usually much bigger from a market standpoint. This December report reflected not only that but also the slow regeneration of numbers coming out of the US government shutdown. The biggest change from the December report was reflected in the corn export number which was increased 125 million bushels from last month up to 3.2 billion bushels which is record territory. This brought down the corn ending stocks for 2025/2026 to 2.029 billion bushels down that 125 million bushels from last month. Everything else remained the same including the 16.752 billion bushels of corn production from this year. The soybean numbers remained the same from last month with US production at 4.253 billion bushels with a yield of 53 bushels per acre. Soybean exports at 1.635 billion bushels was unchanged from November. Brazilian production remained at 175 MMTs and in Argentina at 48.5 MMTs. The wheat numbers were also the same except for world ending stocks were actually increased this month to 274.87 MMTs, up from 271.43 MMTs in November. On Dec 12th corn and wheat futures were higher than the last Market Trends report. Soybeans were lower. March 2026 corn futures was at $4.40 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.62 bu. The January 2026 soybean futures was at $10.76 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $10.88. The March 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.29 a bushel. The Minneapolis March 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.75 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $6.12 a bushel. The nearby oil futures as of December 12th closed at $57.44/barrel lower vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $60.09/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.04/gallon, down vs the $2.12/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report. The Canadian dollar noon rate on December 12th, 2025, was .7263 US, up vs the .7130 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate was reduced to 2.25%. Ontario Corn harvest is continuing in Ontario. As of December 13th, there is still a significant amount of Ontario corn still left in the field. Let’s estimate that at about 20 to 25%. We got here because of heavy snow that came early in December and looks to be staying as the month wore on. Much of this snow and cold temperatures is preventing any significant harvest progress in areas where it is apparent. Some of this Ontario corn we’ll be waiting till spring to be harvested. Production estimates vary but it looks like we’re looking at winter wheat acreage this past fall in a range between 1.046 million acres and 1.18 million acres. This is significant especially when you consider the low prices of wheat. It would seem that Ontario producers always need a good fall weather forecast to get wheat planted and 2025 was good. For many of those wheat acres they’re under a blanket of snow now even in the deep south west of the province. Ontario basis levels for corn has hardly moved from the last Market Trends report. The Canadian dollar has been fluttering within the $0.71 range during this time currently at.7263 US. There also is the spectre of crop still in the field in some parts of Ontario as well as uneven supply in others. Corn yields in Ontario overall are likely down from last year even with the huge yields in the deep south west of Ontario. The soybean basis has increased slightly from last month partly reflecting the moves in the Canadian dollar. Old crop corn basis levels are $1.35 to $2.12 over the March 2026 corn futures on Dec 12th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.15 to $1.45 over Dec 2026 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $3.18 to $3.50 over the January 2026 futures. New crop soybeans range from $2.87 to $3.13 over the November 2026 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are approximately $6.49. For July 2026 new crop the bid is in the $6.56 bu. range. On December 12th the US replacement price for corn was $6.49/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/ The Bottom Line The December 9th USDA report can only be considered neutral for price action as of early December. At the same time that this was happening we did see the price of soybeans start dropping rather significantly into the report and it is continued into mid-December. Part of this is the realization that China is not going to come to the rescue as well as good South American weather and a record South American crop on its way once again. Earlier the Chinese had agreed to buy 12 MMTs of soybeans from the United States. This came out of the presidential meetings between President Trump and President Xi. This is happening with small purchases of US soybeans amounting to about half of that as of now. That commitment should be fulfilled by the end of February even when South American soybeans are cheaper. In reality, there’s really no reason for China to buy anymore American soybeans especially in the political climate we have today. That is, of course as long as the South American crop does not get in trouble. The US government shutdown was significant for market action in November going into December. For the week ending November 22nd fund buying was off the chart for both corn and soybeans and much of this had to do with the vacuum of USDA information. In fact, USDA number since then have not supported this fund buying and this is partly why we’ve seen the funds exciting their longs over the last week from December the 12th. Clearly, these things can happen when USDA information is dialed into algorithms. As we move ahead, we might expect these algorithms to retrench based on more bearish USDA information. Of course, there are all kinds of issues that affect market price but at the end of the day a weather market is the thing that it usually comes down to. At the present time soybean futures do represent many things but they also represent the good crop weather in South America. As we all know USDA’s predicted record crops for Brazil this year and it’s happening as we speak. Lately South American weather has been bulletproofed, we will see if that continues. Commodity Specific Comments Corn Corn has been somewhat of a star among the agricultural commodities all year. That’s because we had the biggest record crop in the field by a country mile and futures prices did not fall apart, in fact they are higher than last year. USDA even increased corn demand by 125 million bushels in their last report. However, the January report could be confession time for corn. Is the crop really that big? Will the USDA continue to change the number of planted acres and harvested acres which will be reflected in production? It’s also hard to say at this point but as we look into the January 12th, 2026, report, those marketing variables have to be kept in mind. The March 2026 corn contract is currently priced at 8.25 cents lower than the March 2026 contract a neutral indication of old crop corn demand. This spread has been cut in half from last month. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The March 2026 corn futures contract is at the 13th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Soybeans Soybeans have lost about a dollar a bushel since mid-October. There was a mysterious pent-up demand for Chinese buying which of course never really happened in any big way. The funds have also exited soybeans over the last few weeks, and we know there’s a big Brazilian crop down south. There is some thought that the USDA will reduce the soybean national yield in the January report. In fact, some of this conjecture has been up to two bushels per acre which could carve off about 160 million bushels over the ending stocks figure. This would put soybean ending stocks at a very low level setting up the spectre for some fireworks ahead. The bulls can only hope. The January 2026 soybean contract is currently priced 10 cents below the March contract considered neutral for soybean demand. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The January 2026 soybean contract is currently at the 16th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Wheat The December WASDE report did document an increase in world wheat production as well as an increase in world wheat stocks. In addition to this, last week the Rosario exchange forecasted that the Argentinian wheat crop was increased by another 3 MMTS. It is an old story about the wheat supply always filling the gaps and that’s exactly what we have now. Any major wheat exporter has to have problems for us to see a major increase in the price of wheat and at the present time we are in a bumper situation. There is wheat seemingly everywhere in good supply. In Ontario the 1.046 million acres to 1.18 million acres now safely under snow which should help it get to the starting gate in April.

    12 min

  5. 11/17/2025

    Market Trends Report – November & December 2025

    US and the World It is that time of year when farmers reach the proverbial finish line, of getting that crop in the bin. The harvest of 2025 has been abundant, and it is also taking place in a very timely fashion with very good weather across the North American corn belt. At the same time there’s been a bit of a dearth of market information as the US government shutdown has meant very little in terms of information coming out from USDA. However, this all changed on November the 14th when despite the continuing governing shutdown, the USDA released their latest WASDE report. For market watchers it was a long two months without USDA numbers. Many were expecting much lower numbers in this November report. However, it seems like big supply is still winning. The USDA actually lowered corn yield .7 bushels per acre to 186 bushels per acre. This was much lower than pre report expectations. This put US domestic production at 16.752 billion bushels above the previous record of 15.34 billion bushels from two years ago. Planted acreage was maintained at 98.7 million acres with harvested acreage at 90 million acres. The corn ending stocks for this year were raised 44 million bushels to 2.154 billion bushels. The 2024/2025 Brazilian corn production was raised to 136 MMT, while Argentinian production was maintained at 50 MMT. On the soybean side of the ledger the USDA reduced soybean yields by .5 bushels per acre to 53 bushels per acre. Harvested acreage was left unchanged from September at 80.3 million acres. This put total US production at 4.253 billion bushels a slight decrease from September. At the end of the day the USDA reduced their ending stocks to 290 million bushels which is a drop from 300 million bushels in September. Brazilian soybean production is set at 175 MMT and 48.5 MMT for Argentina. This is unchanged from September. The US wheat production is set at 1.985 billion bushels which is unchanged from the September small grains report. On Nov 16th corn, soybean and wheat futures were higher than the last Market Trends report. December 2025 corn futures was at $4.30 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.67 bu. The November 2025 soybean futures was at $11.24 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $11.15. The December 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.27 a bushel. The Minneapolis December 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.64 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $6.15 a bushel. The nearby oil futures as of November 16th closed at $60.09/barrel higher vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $57.54/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.12/gallon, up vs the $2.09/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report. The Canadian dollar noon rate on November 14th, 2025, was .7130 US, about the same vs the .7025 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate was reduced to 2.50%. Ontario In Ontario it has been a good harvest window for a crop that has been widely divergent depending on where you are in the province. As of November 16th, most if not all of Ontario soybeans have been harvested. Corn continues to be harvested with an estimate of about 65% complete. Widespread snow in the province in the middle of November did cause somewhat of a slowdown. Yields reflect the drought conditions of the summer with central and eastern Ontario being pretty tough. On the contrary corn yields in the deep southwest of Ontario are record high by a lot. As a general rule winter wheat acreage in Ontario is highly correlated to wheat planting conditions in the fall. In other words, if it’s a good fall wheat production is usually up. This does not necessarily reflect 2025 as we had a very good fall, but wheat production is set to come in at about 1 million acres which would be slightly below last year. Ontario basis levels for grains has increased slightly from the last Market Trends report. The Canadian dollar being at a low ebb has been part of this equation but also the uneven supply and drought-stricken areas has been another. For instance, some basis bids in eastern Ontario are much higher than the rest of the province for corn. The US replacement prices also favourable toward importing corn into Ontario. However, with big corn supplies in the deep southwest the situation is fluid. Old crop corn basis levels are $1.35 to $2.12 over the December 2025 corn futures on October 17th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.05 to $1.57 over Dec 2026 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $3.17 to $3.44 over the November 2025 futures. New crop soybeans range from $2.77 to $3.15 over the November 2026 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are approximately $6.52. For July 2026 new crop the bid is in the $6.79 bu. range. On November 16th the US replacement price for corn was $6.23/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/ The Bottom Line The November USDA report was a disappointment to market observers who are expecting much more. Interestingly enough, the November report is usually a dull report on a normal year. However, with the government shutdown and with the trading algorithms not being fed U.S. government numbers for about 60 days it was widely anticipated as a big report. However, when it was released and the numbers were presented, it looks like big supply won the day again as there wasn’t a big difference from September. The big news in geopolitics over the last few weeks has been the anticipation of soybean purchases from the Chinese again. The anticipated meeting between President Trump and President Xi was widely seen as possible impetus to a catalyst on soybean purchases. However, it hasn’t quite worked out that way. The USDA actually reduced export demand on November 14th and this tempered soybean prices significantly post report. After the Trump/ Xi meeting, the Chinese did agree to buy approximately 12 MMTs of soybeans this market year with an additional 25 MMT annually over the next three years. Keep in mind that in the 2024/2025 marketing year China bought 22.5 MMTs of soybeans from the US. So, in many ways, having the Chinese buy 12 MMTs of soybeans in this marketing year is half a celebration. Trade wars might be easy to win, but in this case, it looks like China has won this round. However, there might be a pullback in prices. There certainly was on the USDA report date. At the present time cash Brazilian soybean values are lower and at a certain point the Chinese will need soybeans in December and January and the Americans would be well placed to serve that need before the Brazilian crop starts being harvested. As per usual in these geopolitical situations nothing is true, and everything is true at the same time. Cheap agricultural commodities are always the great elixir to make sales possible. Commodity Specific Comments Corn Was the USDA number on corn of 186 bushels per acre a proverbial head fake? In other words, traders were expecting a much lower number in fact some were saying 3.2 or more bushels lower than 186 based on the cash markets over the last 60 days. Coming in at 186 bushels per acre was surprising to many. Should we expect this number to go lower in December and the final report in January much lower? Keep in mind that demand is off the chart for corn. For instance, US domestic usage alone is forecast at 13.08 billion bushels. The corn export number for 2025 and 2026 is now pegged at 3.75 billion bushels which is up 100 million bushels from September. There is some testosterone in these numbers. With big supply, we need that. The December 2025 corn contract is currently priced at 13.75 cents lower than the March 2026 contract a bearish indication of old crop corn demand. This spread is the same as last month. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The December 2025 corn futures contract is at the 10th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Soybeans Soybeans have had a little bullish run over the last several weeks but along came the USDA on November 14th and it put a kibosh on that. USDA lowered the soybean number down to 53 bushels per acre which was expected but there was very little else in the report to support the market bulls. Soybeans retreated over $0.20 on the day and will need to regroup to move ahead. Our American friends have been looking at this regroup as Chinese buying of American soybeans. However, that is not happened yet in any big way. For instance, the American government shutdown has meant that none of this has been documented and released for publication. At the same time any agreement with the Chinese only reflects lower numbers if it happens at all. However, on the flip side if in the unexpected event China does come through in a big way for American beans, it will be good for soybean prices. Needless to say, the cash price for Brazilian beans now is far below American gulf soybeans values. The January 2026 soybean contract is currently priced 11.75 cents below the January contract considered slightly bearish for soybean demand. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The January 2026 soybean contract is currently at the 21st percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Wheat In the wheat market over the last two weeks of October and the first week in November we had kind of an earthquake. This refers to about a dollar appreciation in the futures price of wheat at Chicago which is pretty unusual. As we all know, there is wheat everywhere with supply being replenished all the time

    12 min

  6. 10/20/2025

    Market Trends Report – October & November 2025

    US and the World It has been for the most part a wide-open harvest season across the greater American corn belt. This is not only been reflected in the American Midwest but right across Ontario. Harvest has moved quickly and as we are into mid-October corn harvest is ramping up or in full swing throughout farm country. In the meantime, politics has taken over in the American government which has led to a shutdown of government services. This includes much of the crop reporting functions of the USDA and the monthly WASDE report. Hopefully this will change going into November, but it is all conjecture at this point. Keep in mind that USDA reports do serve as a benchmark for market action. They are not perfect and in fact, 2025 has been an example of that. For instance, going from last month’s report we have a record corn production expected of 16.814 billion bushels on an average yield of 186.7 bushels per acre. This is projected on a record corn acreage of 98.7 million acres and harvested acreage which is now projected at 90 million acres. Looking back, the USDA predicted corn acreage this year at 95.3 million acres on March 31st. The difference is striking, and it has had an effect on the market. The same could be said for the soybean market as planted acreage from September being adjusted to 81.1 million acres. The USDA had predicted 83.5 million acres of soybeans on March 31st. Clearly, it’s hard to square the circle on how these numbers could be so different over the course of a few months. Needless to say, USDA numbers give us benchmarks which are consumed by trading algorithms, which discover our futures prices. In lieu of those benchmarks, the market still gives better clues sometimes than the USDA. For instance, futures spreads have been narrowing and basis levels have been increasing across the greater American corn belt. This hints at the crop might not be as big as advertised. As we move ahead, without government numbers zeroing in on futures spreads and basis values over the next few weeks are extremely important to understand market direction. On October 17th corn, soybean and wheat futures were lower than the last Market Trends report. December 2025 corn futures was at $4.22 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.57 bu. The November 2025 soybean futures was at $10.19 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $10.64. The December 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.03 a bushel. The Minneapolis December 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.48 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $6.12 a bushel. The nearby oil futures as of October 17th closed at $57.54/barrel lower vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $62.69/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.09/gallon, down vs the $2.20/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report. The Canadian dollar noon rate on October 17th, 2025, was .7125 US, lower vs the .7221 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate was reduced to 2.50%. Ontario It has been an amazing stretch of harvest weather from late September into October 16th across Ontario. Warm temperatures and dry days intermixed with just a few rain showers has led to big harvest progress throughout Ontario farm country. As of October, the 15th about 91% of Ontario soybeans have been harvested and 2% of Ontario corn has been harvested. You can make an argument that drought is good at harvest time, allowing fast harvest progress. However, as we all know severe drought in much of central and eastern Ontario has impacted crops this year leading to very low yields in some cases. As of the end of September this continued. However, yields have been very good in the deep southwest of the province which got more rainfall throughout the growing season. Overall yield for both corn and soybeans for Ontario will be down from last year and quite significantly in the droughty areas. Ontario basis levels for corn have retreated from earlier levels where there were premiums for early harvest corn. This corn would have been harvested in late September or very early October. The lower basis values lately reflect lots of corn in the United States as well as deep southwestern Ontario. However, there will likely be basis opportunities in eastern Ontario reflecting the drought of the last summer. The soybean basis actually increased slightly from last month reflecting largely the drop in the Canadian dollar to the .7125 US level. Foreign exchange, as always is a major factor in the Ontario soybean basis level. Old crop corn basis levels are $1.35 to $2.12 over the December 2025 corn futures on October 17th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.05 to $1.57 over Dec 2026 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $3.17 to $3.44 over the November 2025 futures. New crop soybeans range from $2.77 to $3.15 over the November 2026 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are approximately $5.90. For July 2026 new crop the bid is in the $6.41 bu. range. On October 17th the US replacement price for corn was $6.68/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at http://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/ The Bottom Line Daily market intelligence remains key to our marketing plans in 2025. At the present time that is very difficult especially when the USDA is not releasing crop reports which are usually the lifeblood of trading algorithms. In the meantime, focusing in on narrowing spreads in futures and basis values can offer some of the best clues. Those clues now are showing a tightening of future spreads especially in corn and a little bit less so in soybeans. Is it the start of something or is it simply a head fake? It is all so hard to know especially at a time when the USDA is not releasing numbers on grain. However, it would seem that commercial interests are back in the market as the week ended on October 17th. Of course, this is all relative to the big size of the crop out there. Much has been said about the lack of Chinese soybean buying from the United States but there are really no economic reasons for the Chinese to do so. At the current effective tariff rates of the 23% against US soybeans its cost prohibitive for Chinese processors. US soybean prices are now below Brazilian prices and $1.40 bushel below Chinese domestic prices. This would come especially at a time when there is a gap between South America supply. However, it may seem that trade wars are bit harder to win than once thought. It’s just a long story now. Domestically, US soybean crush in September was 12% higher than the year before as the US crush industry continues to expand into territory not seen previously. This sector is particularly sensitive to any trade announcement coming between China and the United States. An argument could be made if things are normalized soybean prices could be springboard higher. However, these are not normal times especially with the vacuum of USDA information. Commodity Specific Comments Corn 186.7 bushels per acre is a very solid US domestic yield, in fact a record. However, without official USDA numbers it is hard to judge if that is been backed off going into October. Future spreads and basis along with the price movement have told us that there is a strong indication that the yield might not be as high as that. A two-bushel reduction in yield significantly alter the stocks picture based on previous record production. Corn prices have increased somewhat from the August lows and domestic use has been strong in the United States as well as big export numbers. It is always hard to tell without the government reports, but Mexico has been a big buyer of corn at these price levels. There is a lot of livestock to feed and a lot of corn products to be consumed in Mexico. The December 2025 corn contract is currently priced at 13.75 cents lower than the March 2026 contract a bearish indication of old crop corn demand. However, this spread has been narrowing over the last month. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The December 2025 corn futures contract is at the 13th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Soybeans Do soybeans offer hope for producers? It seems that way especially when you take the lower acreage this year but realistically soybeans really haven’t gone anywhere in two years. We have been stuck between a range of $9.50 a bushel and $10.50 a bushel on the front futures month. It has been very difficult to break above that. The soybean market has grown accustomed to not having any Chinese buying in it. The Chinese need to buy 8 to 9 million metric tons of soybeans between now and when new crop soybeans start coming off in January from Brazil. There is a meeting scheduled for the end of the month between President Trump and President Xi but of course any trade agreement is a theory now. However, a surprise announcement would help soybeans break out of that big range it’s been in for quite some time. The November 2025 soybean contract is currently priced 17 cents below the January contract considered slightly bearish for soybean demand. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The November 2025 soybean contract is currently at the 10th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Wheat Are wheat prices on the way back after such a bearish time? Add a certain point you would have to say yes with Chicago wheat dipping to such low levels. However, as always wheat suffers from the inescapable fact that is grown everywhere throughout the world and planted and harvested ev

    11 min

  7. 09/15/2025

    Market Trends Report – September & October 2025

    US and the World      It has been a big production year with good planting weather turning into a good summer and record yields predicted. However, as summer turned late the tap turned off and it was very dry across much of the greater… The post Market Trends Report – September & October 2025 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

    13 min

  8. 08/18/2025

    Market Trends Report – August & September 2025

    US and the World      Here we are it is the middle of August and in most years the crop is made. At this time of year much of the crop defining weather is behind us. Corn pollination is in the rear-view mirror but… The post Market Trends Report – August & September 2025 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

    13 min

  9. 07/24/2025

    Market Trends Report – July & August 2025

    US and the World      July and August are very significant months for crop development within North America. It represents a time when pollination takes place in the corn crop and pod set takes place in soybeans. Adverse weather during this time can often… The post Market Trends Report – July & August 2025 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

    13 min

  10. 07/07/2025

    Special Edition – Market Trends Report – USDA Report July 7, 2025

    US and the World       It is that time of year again. The July 4th weekend always represents a critical moment in the market year where prices can go one way or the other. Summer heat is ramping up across the greater American corn… The post Special Edition – Market Trends Report – USDA Report July 7, 2025 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

    12 min
  • 10 Episodes

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Grain Farmers of Ontario is the province’s largest commodity organization, representing Ontario’s 28,000 barley, corn, oat, soybean and wheat farmers.

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