Grain Farmers of Ontario

Grain Farmers of Ontario

Grain Farmers of Ontario is the province’s largest commodity organization, representing Ontario’s 28,000 barley, corn, oat, soybean and wheat farmers.

Episodes

  1. 12/15/2025

    Market Trends Report – December 2025 & January 2026

    US and the World The changeover in the calendar year always represents a shifting of the gears in our grain marketing outlook. At least in North America it seems that way with winter settling in with most of the crops in the bin. At the same time in South America, it is the middle of their summer. This means that all of the marketing factors with regard to crop weather are weighing into the price discovery equation. Needless to say, the mechanics of markets go on whether you change gears or not. It has been an incredibly good growing season this past year in North America. On December the 9th the USDA weighed in with their latest WASDE report. The December USDA report is usually a non-starter wedged between harvest in the United States and the January report which is usually much bigger from a market standpoint. This December report reflected not only that but also the slow regeneration of numbers coming out of the US government shutdown. The biggest change from the December report was reflected in the corn export number which was increased 125 million bushels from last month up to 3.2 billion bushels which is record territory. This brought down the corn ending stocks for 2025/2026 to 2.029 billion bushels down that 125 million bushels from last month. Everything else remained the same including the 16.752 billion bushels of corn production from this year. The soybean numbers remained the same from last month with US production at 4.253 billion bushels with a yield of 53 bushels per acre. Soybean exports at 1.635 billion bushels was unchanged from November. Brazilian production remained at 175 MMTs and in Argentina at 48.5 MMTs. The wheat numbers were also the same except for world ending stocks were actually increased this month to 274.87 MMTs, up from 271.43 MMTs in November. On Dec 12th corn and wheat futures were higher than the last Market Trends report. Soybeans were lower. March 2026 corn futures was at $4.40 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.62 bu. The January 2026 soybean futures was at $10.76 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $10.88. The March 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.29 a bushel. The Minneapolis March 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.75 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $6.12 a bushel. The nearby oil futures as of December 12th closed at $57.44/barrel lower vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $60.09/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.04/gallon, down vs the $2.12/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report. The Canadian dollar noon rate on December 12th, 2025, was .7263 US, up vs the .7130 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate was reduced to 2.25%. Ontario Corn harvest is continuing in Ontario. As of December 13th, there is still a significant amount of Ontario corn still left in the field. Let’s estimate that at about 20 to 25%. We got here because of heavy snow that came early in December and looks to be staying as the month wore on. Much of this snow and cold temperatures is preventing any significant harvest progress in areas where it is apparent. Some of this Ontario corn we’ll be waiting till spring to be harvested. Production estimates vary but it looks like we’re looking at winter wheat acreage this past fall in a range between 1.046 million acres and 1.18 million acres. This is significant especially when you consider the low prices of wheat. It would seem that Ontario producers always need a good fall weather forecast to get wheat planted and 2025 was good. For many of those wheat acres they’re under a blanket of snow now even in the deep south west of the province. Ontario basis levels for corn has hardly moved from the last Market Trends report. The Canadian dollar has been fluttering within the $0.71 range during this time currently at.7263 US. There also is the spectre of crop still in the field in some parts of Ontario as well as uneven supply in others. Corn yields in Ontario overall are likely down from last year even with the huge yields in the deep south west of Ontario. The soybean basis has increased slightly from last month partly reflecting the moves in the Canadian dollar. Old crop corn basis levels are $1.35 to $2.12 over the March 2026 corn futures on Dec 12th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.15 to $1.45 over Dec 2026 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $3.18 to $3.50 over the January 2026 futures. New crop soybeans range from $2.87 to $3.13 over the November 2026 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are approximately $6.49. For July 2026 new crop the bid is in the $6.56 bu. range. On December 12th the US replacement price for corn was $6.49/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/ The Bottom Line The December 9th USDA report can only be considered neutral for price action as of early December. At the same time that this was happening we did see the price of soybeans start dropping rather significantly into the report and it is continued into mid-December. Part of this is the realization that China is not going to come to the rescue as well as good South American weather and a record South American crop on its way once again. Earlier the Chinese had agreed to buy 12 MMTs of soybeans from the United States. This came out of the presidential meetings between President Trump and President Xi. This is happening with small purchases of US soybeans amounting to about half of that as of now. That commitment should be fulfilled by the end of February even when South American soybeans are cheaper. In reality, there’s really no reason for China to buy anymore American soybeans especially in the political climate we have today. That is, of course as long as the South American crop does not get in trouble. The US government shutdown was significant for market action in November going into December. For the week ending November 22nd fund buying was off the chart for both corn and soybeans and much of this had to do with the vacuum of USDA information. In fact, USDA number since then have not supported this fund buying and this is partly why we’ve seen the funds exciting their longs over the last week from December the 12th. Clearly, these things can happen when USDA information is dialed into algorithms. As we move ahead, we might expect these algorithms to retrench based on more bearish USDA information. Of course, there are all kinds of issues that affect market price but at the end of the day a weather market is the thing that it usually comes down to. At the present time soybean futures do represent many things but they also represent the good crop weather in South America. As we all know USDA’s predicted record crops for Brazil this year and it’s happening as we speak. Lately South American weather has been bulletproofed, we will see if that continues. Commodity Specific Comments Corn Corn has been somewhat of a star among the agricultural commodities all year. That’s because we had the biggest record crop in the field by a country mile and futures prices did not fall apart, in fact they are higher than last year. USDA even increased corn demand by 125 million bushels in their last report. However, the January report could be confession time for corn. Is the crop really that big? Will the USDA continue to change the number of planted acres and harvested acres which will be reflected in production? It’s also hard to say at this point but as we look into the January 12th, 2026, report, those marketing variables have to be kept in mind. The March 2026 corn contract is currently priced at 8.25 cents lower than the March 2026 contract a neutral indication of old crop corn demand. This spread has been cut in half from last month. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The March 2026 corn futures contract is at the 13th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Soybeans Soybeans have lost about a dollar a bushel since mid-October. There was a mysterious pent-up demand for Chinese buying which of course never really happened in any big way. The funds have also exited soybeans over the last few weeks, and we know there’s a big Brazilian crop down south. There is some thought that the USDA will reduce the soybean national yield in the January report. In fact, some of this conjecture has been up to two bushels per acre which could carve off about 160 million bushels over the ending stocks figure. This would put soybean ending stocks at a very low level setting up the spectre for some fireworks ahead. The bulls can only hope. The January 2026 soybean contract is currently priced 10 cents below the March contract considered neutral for soybean demand. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The January 2026 soybean contract is currently at the 16th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Wheat The December WASDE report did document an increase in world wheat production as well as an increase in world wheat stocks. In addition to this, last week the Rosario exchange forecasted that the Argentinian wheat crop was increased by another 3 MMTS. It is an old story about the wheat supply always filling the gaps and that’s exactly what we have now. Any major wheat exporter has to have problems for us to see a major increase in the price of wheat and at the present time we are in a bumper situation. There is wheat seemingly everywhere in good supply. In Ontario the 1.046 million acres to 1.18 million acres now safely under snow which should help it get to the starting gate in April.

    12 min

  2. 11/17/2025

    Market Trends Report – November & December 2025

    US and the World It is that time of year when farmers reach the proverbial finish line, of getting that crop in the bin. The harvest of 2025 has been abundant, and it is also taking place in a very timely fashion with very good weather across the North American corn belt. At the same time there’s been a bit of a dearth of market information as the US government shutdown has meant very little in terms of information coming out from USDA. However, this all changed on November the 14th when despite the continuing governing shutdown, the USDA released their latest WASDE report. For market watchers it was a long two months without USDA numbers. Many were expecting much lower numbers in this November report. However, it seems like big supply is still winning. The USDA actually lowered corn yield .7 bushels per acre to 186 bushels per acre. This was much lower than pre report expectations. This put US domestic production at 16.752 billion bushels above the previous record of 15.34 billion bushels from two years ago. Planted acreage was maintained at 98.7 million acres with harvested acreage at 90 million acres. The corn ending stocks for this year were raised 44 million bushels to 2.154 billion bushels. The 2024/2025 Brazilian corn production was raised to 136 MMT, while Argentinian production was maintained at 50 MMT. On the soybean side of the ledger the USDA reduced soybean yields by .5 bushels per acre to 53 bushels per acre. Harvested acreage was left unchanged from September at 80.3 million acres. This put total US production at 4.253 billion bushels a slight decrease from September. At the end of the day the USDA reduced their ending stocks to 290 million bushels which is a drop from 300 million bushels in September. Brazilian soybean production is set at 175 MMT and 48.5 MMT for Argentina. This is unchanged from September. The US wheat production is set at 1.985 billion bushels which is unchanged from the September small grains report. On Nov 16th corn, soybean and wheat futures were higher than the last Market Trends report. December 2025 corn futures was at $4.30 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.67 bu. The November 2025 soybean futures was at $11.24 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $11.15. The December 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.27 a bushel. The Minneapolis December 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.64 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $6.15 a bushel. The nearby oil futures as of November 16th closed at $60.09/barrel higher vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $57.54/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.12/gallon, up vs the $2.09/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report. The Canadian dollar noon rate on November 14th, 2025, was .7130 US, about the same vs the .7025 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate was reduced to 2.50%. Ontario In Ontario it has been a good harvest window for a crop that has been widely divergent depending on where you are in the province. As of November 16th, most if not all of Ontario soybeans have been harvested. Corn continues to be harvested with an estimate of about 65% complete. Widespread snow in the province in the middle of November did cause somewhat of a slowdown. Yields reflect the drought conditions of the summer with central and eastern Ontario being pretty tough. On the contrary corn yields in the deep southwest of Ontario are record high by a lot. As a general rule winter wheat acreage in Ontario is highly correlated to wheat planting conditions in the fall. In other words, if it’s a good fall wheat production is usually up. This does not necessarily reflect 2025 as we had a very good fall, but wheat production is set to come in at about 1 million acres which would be slightly below last year. Ontario basis levels for grains has increased slightly from the last Market Trends report. The Canadian dollar being at a low ebb has been part of this equation but also the uneven supply and drought-stricken areas has been another. For instance, some basis bids in eastern Ontario are much higher than the rest of the province for corn. The US replacement prices also favourable toward importing corn into Ontario. However, with big corn supplies in the deep southwest the situation is fluid. Old crop corn basis levels are $1.35 to $2.12 over the December 2025 corn futures on October 17th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.05 to $1.57 over Dec 2026 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $3.17 to $3.44 over the November 2025 futures. New crop soybeans range from $2.77 to $3.15 over the November 2026 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are approximately $6.52. For July 2026 new crop the bid is in the $6.79 bu. range. On November 16th the US replacement price for corn was $6.23/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/ The Bottom Line The November USDA report was a disappointment to market observers who are expecting much more. Interestingly enough, the November report is usually a dull report on a normal year. However, with the government shutdown and with the trading algorithms not being fed U.S. government numbers for about 60 days it was widely anticipated as a big report. However, when it was released and the numbers were presented, it looks like big supply won the day again as there wasn’t a big difference from September. The big news in geopolitics over the last few weeks has been the anticipation of soybean purchases from the Chinese again. The anticipated meeting between President Trump and President Xi was widely seen as possible impetus to a catalyst on soybean purchases. However, it hasn’t quite worked out that way. The USDA actually reduced export demand on November 14th and this tempered soybean prices significantly post report. After the Trump/ Xi meeting, the Chinese did agree to buy approximately 12 MMTs of soybeans this market year with an additional 25 MMT annually over the next three years. Keep in mind that in the 2024/2025 marketing year China bought 22.5 MMTs of soybeans from the US. So, in many ways, having the Chinese buy 12 MMTs of soybeans in this marketing year is half a celebration. Trade wars might be easy to win, but in this case, it looks like China has won this round. However, there might be a pullback in prices. There certainly was on the USDA report date. At the present time cash Brazilian soybean values are lower and at a certain point the Chinese will need soybeans in December and January and the Americans would be well placed to serve that need before the Brazilian crop starts being harvested. As per usual in these geopolitical situations nothing is true, and everything is true at the same time. Cheap agricultural commodities are always the great elixir to make sales possible. Commodity Specific Comments Corn Was the USDA number on corn of 186 bushels per acre a proverbial head fake? In other words, traders were expecting a much lower number in fact some were saying 3.2 or more bushels lower than 186 based on the cash markets over the last 60 days. Coming in at 186 bushels per acre was surprising to many. Should we expect this number to go lower in December and the final report in January much lower? Keep in mind that demand is off the chart for corn. For instance, US domestic usage alone is forecast at 13.08 billion bushels. The corn export number for 2025 and 2026 is now pegged at 3.75 billion bushels which is up 100 million bushels from September. There is some testosterone in these numbers. With big supply, we need that. The December 2025 corn contract is currently priced at 13.75 cents lower than the March 2026 contract a bearish indication of old crop corn demand. This spread is the same as last month. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The December 2025 corn futures contract is at the 10th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Soybeans Soybeans have had a little bullish run over the last several weeks but along came the USDA on November 14th and it put a kibosh on that. USDA lowered the soybean number down to 53 bushels per acre which was expected but there was very little else in the report to support the market bulls. Soybeans retreated over $0.20 on the day and will need to regroup to move ahead. Our American friends have been looking at this regroup as Chinese buying of American soybeans. However, that is not happened yet in any big way. For instance, the American government shutdown has meant that none of this has been documented and released for publication. At the same time any agreement with the Chinese only reflects lower numbers if it happens at all. However, on the flip side if in the unexpected event China does come through in a big way for American beans, it will be good for soybean prices. Needless to say, the cash price for Brazilian beans now is far below American gulf soybeans values. The January 2026 soybean contract is currently priced 11.75 cents below the January contract considered slightly bearish for soybean demand. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The January 2026 soybean contract is currently at the 21st percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Wheat In the wheat market over the last two weeks of October and the first week in November we had kind of an earthquake. This refers to about a dollar appreciation in the futures price of wheat at Chicago which is pretty unusual. As we all know, there is wheat everywhere with supply being replenished all the time

    12 min

  3. 10/20/2025

    Market Trends Report – October & November 2025

    US and the World It has been for the most part a wide-open harvest season across the greater American corn belt. This is not only been reflected in the American Midwest but right across Ontario. Harvest has moved quickly and as we are into mid-October corn harvest is ramping up or in full swing throughout farm country. In the meantime, politics has taken over in the American government which has led to a shutdown of government services. This includes much of the crop reporting functions of the USDA and the monthly WASDE report. Hopefully this will change going into November, but it is all conjecture at this point. Keep in mind that USDA reports do serve as a benchmark for market action. They are not perfect and in fact, 2025 has been an example of that. For instance, going from last month’s report we have a record corn production expected of 16.814 billion bushels on an average yield of 186.7 bushels per acre. This is projected on a record corn acreage of 98.7 million acres and harvested acreage which is now projected at 90 million acres. Looking back, the USDA predicted corn acreage this year at 95.3 million acres on March 31st. The difference is striking, and it has had an effect on the market. The same could be said for the soybean market as planted acreage from September being adjusted to 81.1 million acres. The USDA had predicted 83.5 million acres of soybeans on March 31st. Clearly, it’s hard to square the circle on how these numbers could be so different over the course of a few months. Needless to say, USDA numbers give us benchmarks which are consumed by trading algorithms, which discover our futures prices. In lieu of those benchmarks, the market still gives better clues sometimes than the USDA. For instance, futures spreads have been narrowing and basis levels have been increasing across the greater American corn belt. This hints at the crop might not be as big as advertised. As we move ahead, without government numbers zeroing in on futures spreads and basis values over the next few weeks are extremely important to understand market direction. On October 17th corn, soybean and wheat futures were lower than the last Market Trends report. December 2025 corn futures was at $4.22 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.57 bu. The November 2025 soybean futures was at $10.19 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $10.64. The December 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.03 a bushel. The Minneapolis December 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.48 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $6.12 a bushel. The nearby oil futures as of October 17th closed at $57.54/barrel lower vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $62.69/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.09/gallon, down vs the $2.20/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report. The Canadian dollar noon rate on October 17th, 2025, was .7125 US, lower vs the .7221 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate was reduced to 2.50%. Ontario It has been an amazing stretch of harvest weather from late September into October 16th across Ontario. Warm temperatures and dry days intermixed with just a few rain showers has led to big harvest progress throughout Ontario farm country. As of October, the 15th about 91% of Ontario soybeans have been harvested and 2% of Ontario corn has been harvested. You can make an argument that drought is good at harvest time, allowing fast harvest progress. However, as we all know severe drought in much of central and eastern Ontario has impacted crops this year leading to very low yields in some cases. As of the end of September this continued. However, yields have been very good in the deep southwest of the province which got more rainfall throughout the growing season. Overall yield for both corn and soybeans for Ontario will be down from last year and quite significantly in the droughty areas. Ontario basis levels for corn have retreated from earlier levels where there were premiums for early harvest corn. This corn would have been harvested in late September or very early October. The lower basis values lately reflect lots of corn in the United States as well as deep southwestern Ontario. However, there will likely be basis opportunities in eastern Ontario reflecting the drought of the last summer. The soybean basis actually increased slightly from last month reflecting largely the drop in the Canadian dollar to the .7125 US level. Foreign exchange, as always is a major factor in the Ontario soybean basis level. Old crop corn basis levels are $1.35 to $2.12 over the December 2025 corn futures on October 17th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.05 to $1.57 over Dec 2026 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $3.17 to $3.44 over the November 2025 futures. New crop soybeans range from $2.77 to $3.15 over the November 2026 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are approximately $5.90. For July 2026 new crop the bid is in the $6.41 bu. range. On October 17th the US replacement price for corn was $6.68/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at http://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/ The Bottom Line Daily market intelligence remains key to our marketing plans in 2025. At the present time that is very difficult especially when the USDA is not releasing crop reports which are usually the lifeblood of trading algorithms. In the meantime, focusing in on narrowing spreads in futures and basis values can offer some of the best clues. Those clues now are showing a tightening of future spreads especially in corn and a little bit less so in soybeans. Is it the start of something or is it simply a head fake? It is all so hard to know especially at a time when the USDA is not releasing numbers on grain. However, it would seem that commercial interests are back in the market as the week ended on October 17th. Of course, this is all relative to the big size of the crop out there. Much has been said about the lack of Chinese soybean buying from the United States but there are really no economic reasons for the Chinese to do so. At the current effective tariff rates of the 23% against US soybeans its cost prohibitive for Chinese processors. US soybean prices are now below Brazilian prices and $1.40 bushel below Chinese domestic prices. This would come especially at a time when there is a gap between South America supply. However, it may seem that trade wars are bit harder to win than once thought. It’s just a long story now. Domestically, US soybean crush in September was 12% higher than the year before as the US crush industry continues to expand into territory not seen previously. This sector is particularly sensitive to any trade announcement coming between China and the United States. An argument could be made if things are normalized soybean prices could be springboard higher. However, these are not normal times especially with the vacuum of USDA information. Commodity Specific Comments Corn 186.7 bushels per acre is a very solid US domestic yield, in fact a record. However, without official USDA numbers it is hard to judge if that is been backed off going into October. Future spreads and basis along with the price movement have told us that there is a strong indication that the yield might not be as high as that. A two-bushel reduction in yield significantly alter the stocks picture based on previous record production. Corn prices have increased somewhat from the August lows and domestic use has been strong in the United States as well as big export numbers. It is always hard to tell without the government reports, but Mexico has been a big buyer of corn at these price levels. There is a lot of livestock to feed and a lot of corn products to be consumed in Mexico. The December 2025 corn contract is currently priced at 13.75 cents lower than the March 2026 contract a bearish indication of old crop corn demand. However, this spread has been narrowing over the last month. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The December 2025 corn futures contract is at the 13th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Soybeans Do soybeans offer hope for producers? It seems that way especially when you take the lower acreage this year but realistically soybeans really haven’t gone anywhere in two years. We have been stuck between a range of $9.50 a bushel and $10.50 a bushel on the front futures month. It has been very difficult to break above that. The soybean market has grown accustomed to not having any Chinese buying in it. The Chinese need to buy 8 to 9 million metric tons of soybeans between now and when new crop soybeans start coming off in January from Brazil. There is a meeting scheduled for the end of the month between President Trump and President Xi but of course any trade agreement is a theory now. However, a surprise announcement would help soybeans break out of that big range it’s been in for quite some time. The November 2025 soybean contract is currently priced 17 cents below the January contract considered slightly bearish for soybean demand. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The November 2025 soybean contract is currently at the 10th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Wheat Are wheat prices on the way back after such a bearish time? Add a certain point you would have to say yes with Chicago wheat dipping to such low levels. However, as always wheat suffers from the inescapable fact that is grown everywhere throughout the world and planted and harvested ev

    11 min

  4. 09/15/2025

    Market Trends Report – September & October 2025

    US and the World      It has been a big production year with good planting weather turning into a good summer and record yields predicted. However, as summer turned late the tap turned off and it was very dry across much of the greater… The post Market Trends Report – September & October 2025 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

    13 min

  5. 08/18/2025

    Market Trends Report – August & September 2025

    US and the World      Here we are it is the middle of August and in most years the crop is made. At this time of year much of the crop defining weather is behind us. Corn pollination is in the rear-view mirror but… The post Market Trends Report – August & September 2025 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

    13 min

  6. 07/24/2025

    Market Trends Report – July & August 2025

    US and the World      July and August are very significant months for crop development within North America. It represents a time when pollination takes place in the corn crop and pod set takes place in soybeans. Adverse weather during this time can often… The post Market Trends Report – July & August 2025 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

    13 min

  7. 07/07/2025

    Special Edition – Market Trends Report – USDA Report July 7, 2025

    US and the World       It is that time of year again. The July 4th weekend always represents a critical moment in the market year where prices can go one way or the other. Summer heat is ramping up across the greater American corn… The post Special Edition – Market Trends Report – USDA Report July 7, 2025 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

    12 min

  8. 06/16/2025

    Market Trends Report – June & July 2025

    US and the World      It’s not the home stretch but we’re getting closer. The end of June going into July is always a critical period for crop development.  It can also be a gyrating time for grain markets as there is so much risk ahead in the growing season. As of June 9th, 97% of US corn has been planted which is 3 points ahead of the pace last year. At the same time 90% of the US soybeans have been planted which is 4 points ahead of where we were a year ago. So, we are off to the races, and we will see what happens.  The USDA weighed in with their latest WASDE report on June the 12th.    The June USDA report is often uneventful being ahead of the much bigger numbers that come in at the end of this month. This June report was no different.  USDA lowered old crop ending stocks by 50 million bushels which reshuffled the corn balance sheet.  This set corn old crop stocks at 1.365 billion bushels a new crop corn ending stocks to 1.75 billion bushels.  The new crop forecast of 15.82 billion bushels based on the yield forecast of 181 bushels per acre remains the same.  The Brazilian and Argentinian corn crop remained the same at 130 MMTs and 50 MMTs respectively.      USDA had soybean production the same as a month ago coming in at 4.34 billion bushels on a planted acreage estimate of 83.5 million acres. This is based on the US national yield of 52.5 bushels per acre. The Brazilian and Argentina and soybean crop was left unchanged at 175 MMTs and 48.5 MMTs respectively.  88% of US winter wheat was headed out by June the 9th.                  On June 13th corn, soybean and wheat futures were higher than the last Market Trends report.  July 2025 corn futures was at $4.44 a bushel.  Dec 2025 corn were at $4.43 bu.  The July 2025 soybean futures stood at $10.69/bu.  The November 2025 soybean futures was at $10.54 bu. The July 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.43 a bushel. The Minneapolis July 2025 wheat futures closed at $6.34 a bushel with the September 2025 contract closing at $6.45 a bushel.      The nearby oil futures as of June 13th closed at $72.98/barrel up vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $62.49/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $1.98/gallon, lower than the $2.00/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report.      The Canadian dollar noon rate on June 13th, 2025, was .7354 US, up vs the .7154 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada‘s lending rate remained at 2.75%. Ontario In Ontario things are going well depending on where you are situated. As of June 13th, pretty well all Ontario corn has been planted with early planted corn in southwestern Ontario in the V5-V6 stage.  Weather conditions in eastern Ontario have caused some uneven stands in some areas.  Soybean planting is almost done on the lighter Ontario soils, but it continues on heavier soils with much replanting in southwestern Ontario. Two weather events with very heavy rain caused much replanting in South Lambton County and other parts of the clay belt in southwestern Ontario.  May was a difficult month for planting in these areas, cold and wet and farmers will be hoping the weather from now on will be kind. Wheat continues to advance with T3 fungicide application taking place across the province. Despite the Canadian dollar gaining up two cents over the last 30 days the corn basis in Ontario increased slightly. This might be based on bigger exports to the EU with corn being shipped out. Old crop stocks in Ontario are getting tighter but of course this is all relative to future demand over the next few months until another harvest time. At the same time the increase in the Canadian dollar has caused a weakening in the soybean basis.  As always, the value of the Canadian dollar is the elixir on cash prices for soybeans and wheat in Ontario.     Old crop corn basis levels are $1.30 to $1.87 over the July 2025 corn futures on June 13th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.00 to $1.49 over Dec 2025 futures.   The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $2.60 to $3.00 over the July 2025 futures. New crop soybeans range from $2.63 to $2.76 over the November 2025 futures.   Ontario SRW wheat prices are in the $6.32 bu. range.  For July 2025 new crop the bid is in the $6.28 bu. range.     On June 13th the US replacement price for corn was $6.45/bushel.  You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/  The Bottom Line Here we are, it’s that time of year when the rubber hits the road. mid-June to mid-July is often the time when the market decides that the crop is made.  We have the USDA report at the end of this month which will renew the acres we’ve been working with over the last several weeks. Any surprise in that report could cause market gyrations.  Also too, crop weather during this time often defines everything. The United States and China are talking. Of course, they have a full-blown trade war going on between them with high tariff walls, soybeans being significant with regard to grain prices. Keep in mind in the first Trump administration there was a deal between China and the United States, but it took some time, and the market has been muted during the current talks.  However, with the increase in the renewable diesel RINs requirement on Friday from the EPA, the market turned around.  This will be a long-term benefit to American agriculture. It has the capability of redefining how much corn, soybeans, wheat and cotton will be grown and distributed throughout the United States. If this news had come earlier, there is a real possibility the market would have tried to buy soybean acres back the spring. However, it was the opposite as soybeans giving it up to corn acres or at least that’s what we’ve been led to believe.  How will this manifest itself on June 30th when the USDA releases their acreage estimates? Of course, it’s hard to know but keep that 95.3 million acres in mind. Any big variation will lead to a pop either way. Clearly, it’s also that time of the year when weather means everything. What its saying now is that the crop is made which is so unusual for mid-June, which usually represents a pretty good time to price new crop grain. So, if the market is right, here we are, but if it is wrong, we should see a run up on the other side. In any case, be aware of how this could change things Commodity Specific Comments Corn      The trendline yield from USDA for this year is 181 bushels per acre corn giving us a 1.75-billion-bushel corn ending stocks projection.  Keep in mind, that in the last six years we have not made trendline yields so it makes you wonder what is going to happen this year. As always, the weather in the next month will be key to the corn price equation.      At the moment, everything is projected to be good. We got off to a great start and right now the crop really looks good but there is drier weather forecast for July. It’s all a theory now, and the funds are trading for the good crop. However, if things change toward the end of the month and hot and dry takes over, they will flip very quickly.      The July 2025 corn contract is currently priced at 16 cents higher than the September 2025 contract a bearish indication of new crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The July 2025 corn futures contract is at the 25th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Soybeans      Soybean market got some good news Friday morning. The government announced new EPA renewable fuel volume obligations of 7.12 billion Rins in 2026 and 7.5 billion in 2027.  This was much higher than expected from industry recommendations earlier this year.  Soybean oil traded limit up on the move.      This is incredibly important for soybean demand as it will increase soybean crush significantly. Also too, it helps restrict the import of used cooking oil which had been used to produce soybean diesel. In effect, it’s a big play on US value added agriculture that will help soybean demand almost immediately.        The July 2025 soybean contract is currently priced .5 cents above the August 2025 contract considered neutral for soybean demand.  Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The July 2025 soybean contract is currently at the 23rd percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Wheat      Wheat is the whipping boy of agricultural prices with SRW Ontario cash values in the $6.25 range as of June the 13th. Interestingly enough, American wheat is now some of the cheapest in the world and this has boosted American exports. The Russian crop is about the same as last year, not quite as good helping keeping the status quo on wheat price. Keep in mind the geopolitical concerns happening now with Iran and Israel as well as Ukraine and Russia will always serve as a powder keg for wheat prices going forward.      Ontario wheat continues to March toward the finish line generally speaking, the crop looks good but of course you never know with wheat. It is the only crop we as farmers we expose to four different seasons and quality is a big issue. At the present time there are issues with stripe in the wheat and producers will continue to watch this as we head into harvest.  The Canadian dollar gaining 2 cents over the last 30 days also hurt cash prices in Ontario. There is no question then Ontario wheat farmers will be looking for fresh news in the wheat market going into July. The Bottom Line (cont.) The Canadian dollar has been on a winning streak of late. With its current value of .7354 US, we a

    11 min

  9. 05/20/2025

    Market Trends Report – May & June 2025

    US and the World It is full speed ahead. It is that time of year when planters are rolling across the Great North American corn belt. In fact, good weather has made for great progress that may ultimately lead two bin busting crops. As of May, the 12th 62% of the US corn had been planted 15% ahead of last year’s pace.  However, as we all know we have been here before and one never knows how the final yields will be at this point in the crop year. Needless to say, a good start is a good thing and could likely lead to even bigger crops in 2025. The USDA weighed in with their latest WASDE report on May the 12th. USDA predicted some big crops in their May 12th report. The USDA estimated new corn crop production at 15.82 billion bushels this year based on a yield forecast of 181 bushels per acre. This was above pre report estimates. The planted acreage is set at 95.3 million acres up 5% from a year ago. Total domestic usage is set at 12.785 billion bushels and corn exports for new crop are projected at 2.675 billion bushels.  Globally, USDA estimated Brazil’s corn production to be at 130 MMT with Argentina coming in at 50 MMT. On the soybean side of the ledger new crop soybean production was estimated at 4.34 billion bushels using a 52.5 bushel per acre national average yield. This was based on a US planted soybean acreage of 83.5 million acres. Total usage for soybeans domestically in the United States is set at 4.415 billion bushels with the forecast ending stocks of 295 million bushels. From a global perspective, USDA is estimating the next Brazilian soybean crop to be at 175 MMT and Argentina to come in at 48.5 MMT.  US wheat production is set to increase in the new crop year to 1.921 billion bushels an increase from 1.858 billion bushels last May. There was also an increase globally in world wheat production for this coming year. On May 16th soybean futures were higher than the last Market Trends report.  Corn and wheat futures were lower.   July 2025 corn futures was at $4.43 a bushel.  Dec 2025 corn were at $4.35 bu.  The July 2025 soybean futures stood at $10.50/bu.  The November 2025 soybean futures was at $10.35 bu. The July 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.25 a bushel. The Minneapolis May 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.73 a bushel with the September 2025 contract closing at $5.87 a bushel. The nearby oil futures as of April 18th closed at $62.49/barrel up vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $64.68/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.00/gallon, lower than the $2.03/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report. The Canadian dollar noon rate on May 16th, 2025, was .7154 US, up vs the .7217 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada‘s lending rate remained at 2.75%. Ontario Ontario crops are being planted quickly this spring. Corn and soybean were planted starting in late April and continuing as of May the 16th. Planting was somewhat delayed in eastern Ontario versus southwestern Ontario but it’s catching up as wet weather is affecting parts of southwestern Ontario. However, it must be said that we are off to a good start which should weigh on new crop basis levels as we move ahead in 2025. The 1.1 million acres of Ontario winter wheat looks good and will surely be heading out in the first couple weeks of June where another fungicide application will be made to many of these fields. Wheat prices for delivery on this crop in July are currently around $6.24 a bushel which is exciting to almost no one. At these current levels it might be hard to sustain Ontario wheat production at this level going into 2026. One of the reasons that Ontario wheat prices are at this level is the value of Canadian dollar currently at .7154 US which is up from month ago. This is always good for Ontario cash prices to have a lower dollar and it continues.  Despite shipping lots of Ontario corn to Europe basis levels have softened into mid-May for Ontario corn. However, it is only by a few cents a bushel. Ontario soybean basis levels have actually been maintained or increased slightly probably due to the drop of a penny in the Canadian dollar. As always, Ontario soybean and wheat cash prices will be most sensitive to a Canadian dollar change. Old crop corn basis levels are $1.10 to $1.49 over the July 2025 corn futures on May 16th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.05 to $1.34 over Dec 2025 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $2.98 to $3.20 over the July 2025 futures. New crop soybeans range from $2.84 to $3.11 over the November 2025 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are in the $6.17 bu. range. For July 2025 new crop the bid is in the $6.24 bu. range. On May 16th the US replacement price for corn was $6.62/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/ The Bottom Line It is a very volatile time, but we are at the lower end of the price spectrum. Clearly, as we go forward there is so much risk on the table with regard to how this US crop will fare in 2025.  Keep in mind last year December corn dove down to about $3.95 a bushel during the summer, and it is not without a path down to $3.70 this year. However, we all know that things rebounded for farm prices later. We are still early in the game with regard to how crop weather will impact our crop prices going forward. The timing is now for seasonality in the grain market.  For instance, we know the prices are at the lower end now, but we also know that for new crop marketing mid-June is usually the best time to contract corn and that is coming. The same can be said for soybeans although that is a little bit later as August is so important to pod set in the beans. Keep abreast of the markets very closely over the next month and have market standing orders ready. History tells us will usually see price appreciation. It is also no secret the geopolitics is playing a big part in grain movement throughout the world in 2025.  Tariffs from the United States are certainly affecting not only grain movement in the United States and Canada but also around the world especially into China. Our American friends might think of this as shuffling the deck with grain going other places, but often times that means replacing Canadian grain in our traditional markets. It is difficult to see an overly bullish scenario from a farmer perspective because as farmers we always want prices to go higher. Keep in mind that at these relatively low levels over the last 18 months grain demand has been building. Cheap makes that much of a difference. What it will mean going ahead is that if there is even a slight reduction in production in the United States this year it will cause price appreciation. Needless to say, marketing needs to be refocused constantly. Commodity Specific Comments Corn King corn has a bit of a problem. We are near contract lows in fact December corn is within six cents of a contract low as of May the 16th and the September contract actually reached a contract low.  Of course, a lot of this crop which could have been contracted for way over $5 last winter. As it is now, here we are. As always with this time of year, it is a very fluid situation. With the USDA predicting 95.3 million acres of corn at 181 bushels per acre any movement in these numbers will cause gyrating ending stocks. For instance, the new crop ending stock prediction as of now is 1.8 billion bushels, if the yield goes lower this year it could get down to 1.3 billion bushels. Consequently, if the yield is higher than 181 which is probably entirely unlikely, we go higher. Crop weather, as always will be key in this discussion. The July 2025 corn contract is currently priced at 20.75 cents higher than the September 2025 contract a bearish indication of new crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The July 2025 corn futures contract is at the 26th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Soybeans Conab and the Argentinian crop rating agency increased old crop soybean production in their last report. The Argentinian agency put Argentinian soybeans up 117 million bushels and Conab raised Brazilian production by 20 million bushels.  Clearly, big crops are getting bigger, and this will likely weigh in the market. However, keep in mind that American soybean acreage number could go lower and a corresponding decrease in yield this year will send ending stocks down even farther. It is a mixed bag. An interesting aspect of soybean demand is American biofuel demand which is subject to government regulation. On May 15th they looked like these regulations were going to be lowered for soybeans and that caused a limit decrease in soybean oil pressuring soybean prices. However, the Americans have actually used more soybeans for that mandate than had been planned for and government’s final decision on this is yet to be made. Simply put, it’s probably a good thing for soybean demand and a good thing for soybean prices all in. The July 2025 soybean contract is currently priced 4.5 cents above the August 2025 contract considered neutral to bearish for soybean demand.  Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The May 2025 soybean contract is currently at the 23rd percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Wheat Wheat prices have always had a hard time in the last few years of finding a friend. Wheat prices are off their contract lows but there still at very low levels as we head into June. In fact, wheat production in the United States is set to increase which just adds to the moribund nature of eastern Canadian wheat prices.  The question at a c

    13 min

  10. 04/24/2025

    Market Trends Report – April & May 2025

    US and the World      April and May are always a busy month on the farm whether that be in Ontario or in the greater North American corn belt.  Planters are rolling and auto steer buttons are being pressed as weather is improving and acres are being planted.  As of April, the 13th, 6% of the US corn crop and 3% of the US soybean crop in the ground.  It’s early of course but it is a start, and those numbers will certainly be rising in the weeks to come as we go into May.  Earlier, on April the 10th the USDA released their latest WASDE report.      In this report there was a change in demand for corn, but the production numbers and old crop carryout numbers held their status quo.  On the demand side of the equation feed and residual use was 5.75 billion bushels which was down 25 million bushels from the last Market Trends report.  Ethanol usage was the same as last month and total domestic corn usage was forecast at 12.64 billion bushels which was down 25 million bushels from the last report.  Corn exports were up 100 million bushels to 2.550 billion bushels with old crop ending stocks down 75 million bushels to 1.465 billion bushels.      It was a quiet report on the soybean side of the equation. For instance, the USDA lowered old crop ending stocks by 5 million bushels to 375 million bushels.  Globally, the USDA actually boosted ending stocks by 1.06 MMT, to 122.47 MMT.  The Brazilian and Argentinian soybean production was left unchanged at 169 MMT and 49 MMT respectively.   On the wheat side of the ledger US imports rose 10 million bushels to 150 million bushels. Wheat exports were down 50 million bushels to 820 million bushels. Wheat ending stocks were up 27 million bushels to 846 million bushels.                       On April 18th corn, soybeans and wheat futures were higher than the last Market Trends report.  May 2025 corn futures was at $4.82 a bushel.  Dec 2025 corn were at $4.66 bu.  The May 2025 soybean futures stood at $10.36/bu.  The November 2025 soybean futures was at $10.32 bu. The May 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.48 a bushel. The Minneapolis May 2025 wheat futures closed at $6.06 a bushel with the September 2025 contract closing at $6.33 a bushel.      The nearby oil futures as of April 18th closed at $64.68/barrel up vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $61.99/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.03/gallon, the same as recorded in the last Market Trends Report.      The Canadian dollar noon rate on April 18th, 2025, was .7217 US, up vs the .7034 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada‘s lending rate remained at 2.75%. Ontario      In Ontario the 1.1 million acres of wheat is being side dressed with nitrogen as we go into the end of April.  The weather has been somewhat unusually cool but precipitation has been limited and this has led too much progress being done on the nitrogen. At the same time there is some corn planted in Ontario in the deep south west. However, this is very limited in scope and done on some of the very lighter soils. As we reached the end of April with good weather corn planting will be widespread across the province.      Basis levels for grains have been maintained or eroded slightly from the last Market Trends report.  There is still lots of old crop corn around in Ontario, but it is being actively shipped out of the province into export markets in the United Kingdom and Europe. The basis levels have been slightly affected by the increase in the Canadian dollar of approximately $0.03 over the last month. As always, this has a greater effect on the cash price of soybeans and wheat in Ontario.      The value of the Canadian dollar will likely remain the biggest fixture in Ontario grain basis for the immediate future. However, keep in mind that basis levels change in Ontario depending on the amount of crops sold as well as exports and domestic demand. Further to that, as we look out much further crop size in Ontario and crop health will affect basis levels as we go on through the year.  Producers need to be vigilant of cash grain basis levels and their seasonal tendencies.     Old crop corn basis levels are $1.05 to $1.59 over the May 2025 corn futures on April 18th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.00 to $1.35 over Dec 2025 futures.   The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $2.38 to $3.15 over the May 2025 futures. New crop soybeans range from $2.52 to $3.12 over the November 2025 futures.   Ontario SRW wheat prices are in the $6.43 bu. range.  For July 2025 new crop the bid is in the $6.68 bu. range.     On April 4th the US replacement price for corn was $6.72/bushel.  You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/ The Bottom Line      Increasingly, it’s about the weather. I know that this is an old story, but it still matters always.  At the present time we have a wet outlook in the eastern corn belt and a much drier outlook in the western corn belt. However, it is early and it’s really not affecting things too much with regard to prices. Even very dry and warm Kansas is not pushing wheat prices higher. Needless to say, let’s get to the end of May and weather forecasts will likely become even more telling for future price direction.  This must always be in the back of producers minds.      Keep in mind that weather is very important but also this is 2025 and we have the biggest trade war ongoing in our memory. We do not know the next move in the trade war, but we can easily surmise that American farmers will be protected like they were the last time around in the first Trump administration.  It’s likely there will be government cheques written to the farmers which will be positive for US grain production and negative to price.  In Ontario and Quebec that will be bearish news for grain prices.      It might be April in Ontario but keep in mind that we are harvesting soybeans in Argentina and Brazil.  The Argentinian soybean harvest is approximately 5% complete as of April the 14th. This typically accelerates pretty quickly in April and ends in early May.  This Argentinian crop has been rated 81% good to excellent so we’ll need to keep abreast of harvest results in the next few weeks. It was hot and dry earlier and this may manifest itself in a little bit of a deterioration in this crop.       We should not ignore the corn rally that had taken place recently. Looking back at harvest time market sentiment was pretty poor and envisioning $6 corn in our future was so far away.  However, the reality was we did see quite a price appreciation after harvest and in some ways that continues as corn demand is extremely strong and basis values have been rising in the United States.  In Argentina the corn harvest is continuing with 28% of it being harvested as of April the 16th.  USDA has placed its estimate at 49 MMT with some Argentinian agencies slightly lower. Commodity Specific Comments Corn      On March 28th corn futures were $4.42 a bushel but on April the 11th about 11 trading days later it reached a high of $4.90 a bushel. In terms of a rally this was extremely impressive and there were lots of farmers selling’s $5.00 cash corn for July in many locations in the United states.  The question is can we get to $5 futures in December corn?       Well, the USDA said on March 31st Americans will plant 95.3 million acres of corn. However, if you mix some bad weather into this will we get there?   Anything less than that will certainly create the possibility for price movement into the $5 area for December 2025 corn. Simply put, we are at the start of the growing season and there’s lots of risk ahead and with that lots of possibility of price volatility.     The May 2025 corn contract is currently priced at 6.75 cents below the July 2025 contract a neutral indication of old crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The May 2025 corn futures contract is at the 35th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Soybeans      Keep in mind the USDA predicted 83.5 million acres of soybeans for this crop year. That is 4% less than last year and with that there should be greater risk of lower soybean supplies especially if we have hot and dry weather come to us in August. However, we are so far away from that now.  Both corn and soybean futures have had a tailwind pushing them lately. It’s hard to say whether that will keep up or not.      We all know that tariffs have been tough on soybean prices however when China announced tariffs on American soybeans, we did see a rise of approximately $0.75 in soybean futures. It’s hard to substantiate that with any type of common-sense intuitive credibility. However, we know that markets hate uncertainty and maybe that’s why it happened in that way. Needless to say, even though much will depend on our growing season with regard to soybean prices, the bad geopolitics against soybeans remain.  We will move ahead both looking at growing conditions and any other geopolitical moves by the United States, China and Brazil.        The May 2025 soybean contract is currently priced 9.75 cents below the July 2025 contract considered neutral to bullish for soybean demand.  Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The May 2025 soybean contract is currently at the 23rd percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Wheat      It is dry in American wheat country. Kansas is very dry and it has been almost hot in some places.   You would think at some point it w

    12 min
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Grain Farmers of Ontario is the province’s largest commodity organization, representing Ontario’s 28,000 barley, corn, oat, soybean and wheat farmers.

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