Weather is the one thing you cannot plan for. But you can plan around it. That difference — between being caught off guard and being positioned for whatever comes — is what this session is about. Drew Lerner has been reading the atmosphere for 47 years. Commodity markets, food companies, and producers worldwide rely on him. He is the kind of guy who can draw the jet stream on a whiteboard in real time and make it feel like a kitchen table conversation. That is exactly what happened here. Darren Sander runs a farm south of Rosetown, Saskatchewan. He has spent years figuring out how to reduce the damage weather does to his operation before the weather ever shows up. He opens the session by laying out the practical side — what farmers actually do to protect their crops from a season that has already made up its mind. Together, the three of them cover a lot of ground. Topics Covered How prairie farmers mitigate weather before it arrives Seed timing, variety selection, soil biology, compaction, and why the first 30 days dictate maximum yield potential. Darren explains the logic behind building resilient crops when the inputs are already fighting you. What the drought monitor is actually showing — and what it is missing The North American drought monitor does not capture long-term soil depletion well. For producers entering their eighth or ninth year of persistent dryness, the map looks more encouraging than it is. Drew explains why, and what to watch for as temperatures climb this spring. The ridge of high pressure problem — and why the US dryness matters to you When soil is dry, ridges of high pressure intensify and hold. When soil is wet, ridges collapse. Right now, the Rocky Mountain snowpack and the US Plains are running significantly below normal, which means any summer ridge could anchor itself, amplify, and push north into the prairies. This is not the official forecast. It is the official worry. What a Montana low means for the Southwest prairies Montana lows have been rare in recent years. That is a big part of why southern Alberta and southwest Saskatchewan have been so dry. One showed up in April 2026. Drew explains why that matters and what it signals about the pattern shift that may be coming. The two competing weather patterns fighting over the prairies right now A ridge-dominated western pattern and an active US trough pattern have been alternating all winter. Neither one has been generous to the Canadian prairies. Drew explains when and how the jet stream will shift northward — and what that means for when moisture actually arrives. The 18-year cycle and what it says about 2026 The lunar cycle is one of Drew's most reliable long-range tools. He walks through what it is, how it interacts with El Niño, and why 2026 looks meaningfully different from the worst years of the recent drought. El Niño — what it actually means for the prairies, and what it does not El Niño is coming. The hype is overblown. Drew separates the signal from the noise, breaks down timing versus intensity, and explains what the transition from La Niña to El Niño typically looks like for June, July, and August across different regions of the prairies. The solar cycle, commodity markets, and the window you are in right now Drew overlays the 11-year and 22-year solar cycles with corn and canola futures prices going back to the 1970s. The pattern is real and it matters for how you think about marketing. The 2020–2023 drought was not random — it was consistent with the solar minimum-to-maximum period. We are now two years past the solar maximum. That changes the outlook. Why the Northeast prairies and Manitoba face a different set of problems Too much snow. Heavy soils. A wetter June on the way. The challenge in the east is almost the opposite of the challenge in the southwest, and Drew addresses both. Peace country — is it going to be wet all spring? The short answer: yes, there is real risk of delayed seeding. Drew explains the pattern and what to watch for. Weather modification — does cloud seeding actually work? Drew gives a genuinely honest answer to a question that generates a lot of heat in agricultural communities. Worth listening to. Forest fire smoke and its effect on crop temperatures An uncomfortable truth: in 2021, smoke from northern fires may have actually moderated temperatures enough to reduce crop losses. Drew explains the physics. Global market drivers to watch in late 2026 and into 2027 El Niño's impact on Southeast Asia, India, and the pulse markets. Coffee, cocoa, palm oil, and what to pay attention to if you're thinking about canola. Timestamps [00:00:00] Welcome and context — 420 registered, 250 live [00:01:00] Introduction to Drew Lerner and World Weather Inc. [00:02:30] How probabilities work — and why no weather forecaster really knows what they're doing [00:05:00] Darren Sander on farm-level weather mitigation — seed primers, soil biology, compaction [00:08:10] Drew on how farmers in the US approach weather risk [00:13:00] AI, machine learning, and the future of weather forecasting [00:19:00] The North American drought monitor — what it shows and what it misses [00:22:00] The ridge of high pressure — basic atmospheric physics and why the US dryness is your problem too [00:27:00] Nine years of drought in southwest Saskatchewan — when does the drought monitor catch up? [00:27:30] The Omega block explained — live whiteboard illustration [00:31:00] Soil moisture assessment heading into spring 2026 [00:35:00] Snow cover — who has too much, who has too little, and what happens next [00:39:00] The two storm systems coming in April — what to expect in your area [00:41:00] Why the Montana low is encouraging news for southern Alberta [00:43:00] Manitoba — a different problem, a wetter spring coming [00:44:00] The primary influences on 2026: La Niña fading, El Niño arriving, the 18-year cycle, the solar cycle, ocean temperatures [00:50:00] Warm ocean temperatures globally — why that matters for storm moisture [00:52:00] The upper air pattern that has dominated since November — and when it breaks [00:58:00] US frost risk and potential market opportunities for prairie producers [01:01:00] The 30-day outlook — less precipitation coming after these two storms, then a pattern shift [01:06:00] El Niño timing and what the 18-year cycle data says month by month: May, June, July [01:13:00] The 1972 comparison — why Drew does not like it as an analog, and what is different this year [01:17:00] Drought monitor data collection — how granular is it, really? [01:19:00] Weather modification and cloud seeding — does it work? [01:26:00] The solar cycle and commodity futures — a 50-year correlation worth understanding [01:37:00] Global market drivers: Southeast Asia, India, pulse crops, coffee, cocoa, and canola [01:39:00] India's monsoon — El Niño timing versus the Indian Ocean Dipole [01:42:00] Final questions, closing remarks, and gratitude from the room About Drew Lerner Drew Lerner is the founder and senior agricultural meteorologist at World Weather Inc., a subscription-based service relied upon by commodity markets, food companies, and producers worldwide for over four decades. His forecasts cover the Canadian prairies, the US Plains, and global crop production regions. To subscribe or get in touch: worldweather.cc About Darren Sander Darren farms south of Rosetown, Saskatchewan, and has spent years building a farming system designed to withstand weather stress — from seed to harvest. About Growing the Future Productions Growing the Future Productions is a live, interactive briefing platform for prairie producers and agricultural professionals. We run monthly sessions with the best minds in prairie agriculture — weather, markets, land, technology, policy, and the things that actually matter on the farm. Subscribe to the Growing the Future Podcast wherever you listen. Follow Growing the Future on LinkedIn and Instagram. To find out about upcoming live sessions, visit growtingthefuture.ca Register for the Convergence Conference at convergence.ag and stay updated by subscribing to the Growing the Future Podcast at growingthefuturepodcast.ca.
