Hallway Chat Fraser Kelton & Nabeel Hyatt

What is the extent of autonomous coding engineer Devin’s ability to generate real, functional applications with little to no help? Nabeel and Fraser dive into the buzz about Cognition’s ‘Devin’, what makes it different, and the transformative potential of AI in software engineering, particularly focusing on autonomous coding software. Later, they get into the innovator's dilemma and the lessons the .com era can lend to this new time in AI.
(00:00) Intro
(01:23) The buzz about Cognition’s Devin
(07:44) What makes Devin different?
(12:19) Tolerance for time
(16:07) The interface of the future
(22:19) Innovating around the incumbent’s advantage
(25:30) Cutting edge products mean new user bases
(29:52) Netscape was the Open AI of the Mobile Revolution
(33:42) Optimism as the engine of capitalism
(37:56) The model is not the product

This week is a discussion of the points of differentiation vs commodification in various AI models. Including how these points might change over time, and might change between language, image, and video models. Then Fraser pivots to orienting around jobs to be done in AI, and how the various models have a huge gap between being capable of doing something, and doing it well. 
We then talk about Claude 3, the nature of benchmarking, and the rapid dropping LLM prices. Lastly, we cover a startup subject, debating the merits of SAFE (Simple Agreement for Future Equity) vs. priced equity rounds in early-stage funding. 
Links:
Claude 3 from AnthropicLMSys Chatbot Leaderboard for which models are sticking out right nowFor areas where models don't differentiate, we are back to the 7 powers framework. Hamilton Helmer's website with overview of the 7 Powers framework: https://7powers.com/, Sachin Rekhi has a good detailed primer on the 7 Powers as well.Carta guide on priced rounds vs SAFEs, which we don't really agree with all the pros and cons, but is a decent overview
(00:00) - Opening
(00:31) - Are models an inevitable commodity?
(05:58) - How image, video, and other models may pan out differently than language
(08:20) - It's not the model, it's the customer
(10:20) - Jobs to be done in AI - 1. Can it do it... 2. very well.. 3. exactly how I want it to.
(22:13) - Claude 3 by Anthropic
(25:25) - ELO Leaderboard Results
(26:25) - Claude 3 Haiku and Falling LLM Prices
(30:33) - SAFES vs priced equity rounds

Josh Miller, Founder and CEO of The Browser Co, joins this week. We loved the experience with Arc Search, a new AI-enabled mobile search experience, we decided to talk to Josh directly about how it all came together. 
Topics:* How Arc Search came to be spawned out of basically a side project* The core value of "we don't know"* How the key AI feature 'Browse for Me' was not the initial concept, but came to be added last minute* Josh's initial skepticism about AI, up until just a few months ago, and what flipped him* Three strategies for AI integration* The perils of leading with consumer hooks, how that derailed Browser Co, and focusing on solving problems* Should cost be a key consideration when developing AI?
Hope you enjoy us mixing it up this week by talking with someone wrestling with building in the space. Drop us a line on twitter at @nabeel and @fraser with what you want to hear more (or less) of. 

(00:00) - Intro
(01:02) - Welcome Josh, CEO of The Browser Company
(02:51) - The origin of Arc Search
(05:12) - Browse For Me
(06:55) - Overview of Arc Search
(16:51) - Thinking about competition
(25:08) - User problems over elegant hooks
(29:25) - Three strategies for AI integration
(34:51) - The importance of prototyping
(40:28) - The future of desktop search
(46:01) - Thinking about costs when building with AI

Two former founders, now VCs, play with AI products and see where that leads...

Fraser and Nabeel discuss the differences between horizontal disruption and vertical market disruption and the patterns of the phases of this disruption in the mobile age. From Adaptation, to Evolution, and eventually Revolution. Next, they dive into AI email app Shortwave AI. This leads to a conversation around what AI models are optimizing for, and how speed and polish can sometimes be part of the baseline usability of a product. 

They also explore the default Agent workflows we should be trying as we figure out the right knowledge worker AI copilot. Using the analogy of the history of web development and AI no code, from webflow to squarespace, what those design approaches might tell us about how AI workflow tools will develop.

Finally, we discuss the potential value of talking to VCs when you're not raising, and the perils of taking even good generalized advice all the time.
* Shortwave email* Avi Goldfarb and his book Prediction Machines* Avi also spoke with Patrick O'Shaughnessy * Yahoo Pipes wikipedia page, or see Retool's amazing history of Pipes
* TLdraw's Makereal

(00:00) - Intro
(00:32) - "AI Week" at Startups
(02:43) - Is it Adaption, Evolution, or Revolution
(05:23) - Shortwave AI - Adapting email to AI
(08:07) - Familiar but personalized
(11:09) - Speed is a feature too
(15:51) - Taking users on a behavior change journey
(18:37) - What are Agent workflows we should default to
(26:04) - TLdraw & Notion, over Pipes, as the core UX for AI
(29:43) - TLDraw as metaphor for "show me the output" application building
(31:13) - History of Web Development as analogy for AI no code
(33:37) - Is it worth talking to VCs when you aren't raising
(43:24) - Building relationships, Bizdev vs Sales

Reviewing voice note transcription apps, from WaveAI to Audiopen and ChatGPT. Then Fraser and Nabeel take stock of various ways AI coding is affecting software development, from Co-Pilots to "mealeable software development" and No-Code AI.  Lastly, the hosts talk through a wish list of products they'd love to see this year.
Topics discussed:- Slowed Pace of AI Product Launches- Wave AI app, and what to look for in voice notes transcription- Current state of AI-enabled software tools- Potential impact of AI on software development workflows- What is the AI native storytelling medium- The AI todo list partner- Coding as a liberal art- User input layer and direct feedback in AI-enabled tools
References:- Wave AI - Meable Software in the age of LLMs- Zapier AI- Replit

(00:00) -
(01:39) - Wave AI
(06:29) - Adapting Behavior to Leverage AI Products
(12:54) - AI Enabled Software Development
(13:46) - Infinitely Adaptable UIs via AI
(18:31) - Zapier ++
(20:51) - AI Enabled Software Engineers
(31:31) - Different Products Across Each Layer
(34:48) - AI Products We'd Like to See in 2024