Hardpoints

VALOR Media Network
  • 5.0 (6)
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Every week, former fighter pilots and current entrepreneurs Neal Rickner & Mike Smith provide unfiltered insights into the biggest stories in startups, energy, and national security.

  1. 1d ago

    Nvidia’s CEO Is Out. Here’s What We Said Before He Resigned.

    Nvidia’s CEO has resigned, days after admitting an affair with a woman accused of spying for China. Mike and Neal recorded this episode Monday, before the resignation, and still break down what happened, why it matters for national security, and who should have caught it. They also cover Canada’s budget built around needing the United States less, a climate summit opening without an American delegation, and Humvees and patrol boats headed for Washington, D.C. Canada’s “Masters of Our Destiny” budget brings C$142 billion in new spending and tax measures, a goal of doubling exports to countries other than the U.S. by 2035, a new sovereign wealth fund, and a tax break that puts the rate on new investment at less than half the U.S. level. COP31 opens in Turkey with no administration delegation, but 19 U.S. lawmakers are going anyway. The summit’s headline goal is “35 by 35,” which means raising electricity’s share of global energy use from just over 20% to 35% by 2035. In Washington, an October 29 memo sends the National Guard 60 patrol cars, tactical vehicles, patrol boats and light towers — and D.C.’s interim police chief says he learned about it from the news. Nvidia’s Jensen Huang admitted an affair, reportedly with Alice Huang, a former executive at Singapore-based Megaspeed who has been accused of acting as an informant for China’s Ministry of State Security. Nvidia’s board opened an independent investigation, three House committee chairs asked for a closed-door briefing on November 18, and no one has been charged. Since this recording, Huang has resigned as CEO, president and board member, and CFO Colette Kress is interim CEO. Mike (CEO of Aclymate) and Neal (CEO of Airloom) start with Canada. Neal asks whether the budget is divorce papers or a slow drift, and Mike likes the wealth fund but points out the cost — growth of only about 1% in 2026. On COP31, Mike argues the Iran war pulled the biggest climate lever there is, and Neal pushes back on how much of that electrification will be coal. In D.C., they debate what Humvees can do that a beat cop can’t. On Nvidia, Neal brings a story from his own deployment to Asia, and Mike argues the warning signs were there long before. In Goods, Bads, and Others, an island in the Azores goes dark for a seabird, October’s breach numbers get ugly, Francis Fukuyama sounds a warning, a runner solves four Rubik’s cubes in a mile, Section 232 solar tariffs take effect December 4, and a broken gas pump printer leads to a Powerball win. In the mailbag, Philip Collier weighs in on predators and John Lynch defends Musk on Starshield. Send questions and comments to hardpoints.show@gmail.com, and follow Hardpoints wherever you get your podcasts. Hardpoints is part of the Valor Media Network.

  2. 3d ago

    Dems Stampede & Vance Says the War is the Reason. Is Hegseth the Fall Guy?

    Democrats now hold both the House and the Senate, and James Talarico is the first Democrat to win a Texas Senate race since 1988. The night before the vote, the U.S. hit targets near the Strait of Hormuz without announcing it. Mike and Neal, the former fighter pilots behind Aclymate and Airloom, recorded this episode the Thursday after the election, and that is where they start. Trump called the strikes a minor attack. Neal, who has stood in a bomb crater, says there is no such thing as a minor strike. Mike argues the whole war was never legal. Neal grants that shooting back at missile sites is not off the table, but he objects to how far the public has been kept from the decision. Then comes the blame game. Vice President Vance says the war is why Democrats won, and Rep. Thomas Massie says he will force a vote to impeach Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. Mike does not trust Hegseth’s backbone or the way he is reshaping the officer corps. Neal keeps a running tally of what he likes and dislikes about this administration, and he does not want Hegseth gone. He points to acquisition reform and the new Autonomous Warfare Command. Both agree Democrats should investigate the layer of leadership below Hegseth. Mike warns that pushing him out could leave an acting secretary with no oversight at all. With the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine set to talk on Nov. 10 and 11, who has leverage? Mike thinks Zelensky holds the cards and that a Democratic Congress could attach Ukraine support and Iran limits to a defense bill. Neal thinks the talks go nowhere until Washington picks a side. They close the segment on what Democrats should do with their win. Neal says to read it as a mandate on affordability, not ideology, and Mike expects a tight agenda on the war, health care, and tariffs. In the mailbag, Evelyn Simpson shares hard-won advice for startups importing from China, and Marc Dowling writes on Instagram that China is more sensible than the West. Mike works with branded merchandise companies on forced labor compliance, and he says the real protection is traceability. Neal says Airloom wants to know where every part comes from. In Goods, Bads, and Others, Mike’s good is Americans who said enough, Texas Republicans included. His bad is a 17% drop in global clean investment in the first half of 2026 while coal demand rises. His other is Netanyahu’s struggle to form a coalition. Neal’s good is libraries, his bad is kids moving less, and his other is Elon Musk’s warning that a 2028 Democratic sweep would be “game over for America.” Send questions or comments to hardpoints.show@gmail.com. Hardpoints is brought to you by the Valor Media Network.

  3. Nov 5

    SpaceX Capped Starlink at 100 MPH and Ukraine’s Drones Went Dark. Who Should Hold the Off Switch?

    On the night of October 13, Ukraine’s drones start losing their connection. SpaceX has capped the military version of Starlink so that any terminal moving faster than about 100 miles per hour drops its link, and Ukraine needs those drones to chase Russia’s jet-powered Shaheds. Reuters says the order came from inside the White House. The White House denies it. The Wall Street Journal reports that Musk gave the order and discussed it with Trump. Mike and Neal argue over who actually holds the switch, whether Starshield changes the answer, and what it means that a private company can shape a war. From there, they turn to a Wall Street Journal report that the US has told Gulf partners to prepare for a short, intense campaign against Iran after the midterms. Neal flags the anonymous sourcing and points out that the 2003 Iraq planning was driven by the military, not the election calendar. Mike argues the Iran war is unpopular and the timing is political. They disagree on how much political skill is behind it. Next up is the EPA’s move to roll back the 2024 methane rules. Mike explains why Europe’s demand for verified low-methane LNG could hit American producers, and Neal asks whether Europe can really walk away from US gas. Finally, with CoreWeave’s bonds sliding and Big Tech borrowing at a record pace, they debate whether the AI boom is a dot-com bubble or a 2008 setup. Neal sees an overbuild, but not a bust yet. Mike worries about the debt underneath the data centers. Neal also shares what a heavy fundraising week feels like from the founder’s chair. In the mailbag, listener Loki the Trickster God says China is “10x ahead” because it skips costly wars. Mike puts the cost of America’s wars at about $8 trillion, by one broad estimate. Neal agrees China is catching up but pushes back on the 10x claim. Mike also gives a shout-out to Lavinia Gang, spotted on a Denver license plate. Goods, Bads, and Others: Mike’s good is global emissions slipping about half a percent year over year, his bad is the bipartisan permitting reform bill stuck in the Senate, and his other is late-stage venture capital growing past what startups need. Neal’s good is the Brewers’ World Series run, his bad is a Chinese rocket stage landing in a Minnesota cornfield, and his other is AI agents switching off their own monitors. Hardpoints is hosted by Mike Smith, a former Navy F/A-18 pilot who runs Aclymate, and Neal Rickner, a former Marine Corps F/A-18 pilot who runs Airloom. Questions or comments? Email hardpoints.show@gmail.com. Hardpoints is brought to you by the Valor Media Network.

  4. Oct 29

    Your Supplier Might Be Tied to the Chinese Military. How Would You Know?

    Louisville Slugger, the official bat of Major League Baseball, sits under a company controlled by a Chinese-led investor group. So does Arc’teryx. Isaac Stone Fish makes a living tracking exactly this kind of exposure, and he says most founders have more of it than they think. Mike and Neal sit down with Isaac, founder and CEO of Strategy Risks and author of America Second: How America’s Elites Are Making China Stronger. Isaac spent seven years in China as a journalist. He explains what the Communist Party actually wants (control, not stability), why every Chinese company has to stay on its good side, and why the People’s Liberation Army is the party’s armed wing rather than a national military. Then he gets practical. His China-exposure framework has four parts: supply chain, partnerships and politics, business fundamentals like investors and joint ventures, and regional ties like Xinjiang and Tibet. Mike brings the view from Aclymate, where supply chains for promotional products and branded merchandise run through Asia, and asks what a small importer should actually worry about. Isaac walks through the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act, why a $4 million shipment stopped at port can make or break a company, and why a Chinese investor who’s harmless at Series A can become a real problem by Series C, once a federal grant is on the table. Neal, who runs Airloom, pushes on whether energy counts as a sensitive sector (Isaac says yes). They also cover how universities get entangled and whether there’s any ethical way to do business with the party at all. In the mailbag, @heathershoe7429 asks about reports that the president will invade Iran after the midterms. Mike and Neal explain why they think a limited escalation is far likelier than an invasion of a country that size. Goods, Bads, and Others: Mike enjoys a quiet weekend and a Broncos win, worries about the 82nd Airborne’s extended deployment, and takes on Palmer Luckey’s new cloned-dog startup, Warhound, which raised $200 million at a $1.2 billion valuation. Neal likes that troops get a day off to vote, notes that oil and gas profits are soaring, and admits his wife caught him talking to his AI. Questions or comments? Email hardpoints.show@gmail.com. Follow Hardpoints wherever you get your podcasts. Hardpoints is brought to you by the Valor Media Network.

  5. Oct 27

    China Refueled a Satellite in Space and America Still Can’t. Why?

    Every military satellite America owns launches with all the fuel it will ever have. When the tank runs dry, a satellite worth hundreds of millions of dollars becomes space junk. This week, Mike and Neal take a question from listener Aimee D. about whether the Space Force is sustainable, and the answer starts with a surprisingly thin supply chain: hydrazine, the main satellite fuel, comes from a single small plant in Louisiana. Neal walks through why fuel is the real limit on a satellite’s life, from Landsat 7 running low to the $500 million geostationary satellites that sit over one spot for years. Then comes the main event. The U.S. demonstrated in-orbit refueling back in 2007, but NASA canceled OSAM-1, its big follow-on mission, in 2024. Meanwhile, China appears to have pulled off the first satellite-to-satellite refueling in geosynchronous orbit, roughly 22,000 miles up. Mike and Neal argue about how a country falls behind on something it invented, why the same technology can work as a tow truck or a hijacker, and whether the smarter bet is expensive satellites you can refuel or cheap ones you simply replace. They also dig into what this means for the startup economy. Mike sees a golden age of space startups, driven by cheaper launches, autonomy, and venture funds flush with cash. Neal, who runs a hardware company, expects a cycle of wreckage first. And Mike makes the case that space is a commons, where debris is pollution and nobody has a plan to pay for the cleanup. In the mailbag, @viveksmom asks whether someone can be an asset without knowing it, and @dodgingrain3695 argues that gas prices and the November midterms are driving the White House. In Goods, Bads, and Others, Mike’s good is the Financial Times reporting on the collapse of diesel cars in Europe, his bad is the Ramaswamy campaign ad in Ohio’s governor race featuring Amy Acton’s estranged mother, and his other is the Colorado ballot measures on transgender youth. Neal’s good is the Brewers sweeping the Dodgers on their way to the World Series, his bad is the worsening situation in the Strait of Hormuz, and his other is two elections in one week: Brazil’s runoff and Israel’s vote. Mike Smith runs Aclymate, a climate platform for businesses without a sustainability department. Neal Rickner runs Airloom, an emerging energy company. Send questions and comments to hardpoints.show@gmail.com, follow wherever you get your podcasts, and share the show with someone who would appreciate it. Hardpoints is brought to you by the Valor Media Network.

  6. Oct 20

    Zelensky Is Ignoring Trump and Bombing Russian Refineries. Who Actually Holds the Cards?

    Ukraine is hitting Russian oil refineries more than 3,000 kilometers inside Russia with a drone that costs about $55,000. Last weekend, the president of the United States told Zelensky to stop. Ukraine went along for three days. Then Russia answered with 39 ballistic missiles aimed at Ukraine’s power grid, and Zelensky says the block on refinery strikes is over. This week, Mike Smith of Aclymate and Neal Rickner of Airloom pick up where last week’s diesel episode left off. Diesel hit a record this fall, the midterms are three weeks away, and the White House is easing sanctions on Russian diesel while leaning on Ukraine to stop hitting Russian refineries. Washington has stopped paying for this war, but it still controls Patriot sales, intelligence sharing, and a Starlink network owned by the richest man in the world. So what leverage does Trump actually have left — and is Zelensky wrong to ignore him? Neal makes Trump’s case first — the US still holds the three levers that matter most to Ukraine, and Zelensky is gambling that Trump won’t pull them. Mike argues the opposite. In his read, Trump has given away his carrots, has few sticks, and has backed himself into a corner, while Zelensky has the support of his people and a European backstop that keeps getting stronger. They end up disagreeing about who is really cornered. They also look at what’s actually flying and what it’s hitting. The Ukrainian drone is built from foam, plywood, and carbon fiber — effectively a cruise missile for the price of a used car — and Mike explains why refineries make such good targets at the tactical, operational, and strategic levels. On the other side, Russia is going after power plants and substations as winter arrives, and Mike makes the case that it isn’t breaking anyone’s will. In the mailbag, Amy D. asks about Space Force and the fuel it needs — a follow-up is coming. A reader from CIR Daily Updates also weighs in on last week’s episode, arguing the diesel deal may be less than the headline suggests, with no US buyer publicly committed and pump prices not moving. Their full analysis is on Cathrop Briefs. In Goods, Bads, and Others, Mike covers EVs gaining ground around the world, the rollback of PEPFAR, and Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian data centers. Neal covers Anne Carson’s Nobel Prize in Literature, the loss of Sergeant Major Anderson, and the UK prime minister saying it’s clear Russia interfered in the Brexit referendum. Questions or comments? Email hardpoints.show@gmail.com. Follow Hardpoints wherever you get your podcasts, and share it with someone who would appreciate it. Hardpoints is part of the Valor Media Network.

  7. Oct 15

    The First Russian Diesel Shipment Is Under a Day of U.S. Demand. What Did America Pay for It?

    A new Treasury license allows Russian diesel to be sold into the United States through April 7, 2027, after a phone call between President Trump and Vladimir Putin. The first announced shipment is 300,000 tons, about 2.25 million barrels. America uses about 3.7 million barrels of diesel a day, so the headline deal covers less than one day of demand. It comes from a country whose own fuel exports are collapsing under Ukrainian drone strikes on its refineries. This week, Mike and Neal ask what the deal is really for. Mike starts with why diesel hurts so much: Russia and Ukraine are bombing each other’s energy infrastructure, and diesel runs the hay trucks, cattle operations and grocery supply chains the working economy depends on. It also reaches your plane ticket, because diesel and jet fuel come from the same part of the barrel. Land O’Lakes CEO Beth Ford puts the rise in farm input costs at $15 billion since February, with diesel roughly double. Neal presses on the numbers and the motive. If the volume is this small, what did Russia give up? Mike’s answer is nothing, and he reads the deal as a political move ahead of the midterms that also leans on Ukraine’s president. Republican senators Collins, Curtis, Murkowski and Tillis have joined Democrats in objecting, and Mike asks why Congress is stopping at statements when it has levers to pull. Neal asks why the first call isn’t to Canada, our closest energy partner, and both hosts agree you phone your friend before your adversary. Mike then pulls on a thread most coverage misses: the transshipment points that move Russian oil out of the Arctic, and his worry that the deal could widen the war. They close on a more generous reading, that the deal is a backroom trade to ease Iran’s pressure on the Strait of Hormuz. Neal says he would back that. Mike hopes it’s true but sees a simpler explanation. In the mailbag, a listener says the F-35’s $1 trillion price tag covers 50 years of fuel, manpower and spares. Mike says the latest projection is closer to $2 trillion and argues that spending defense dollars well is how you look out for the little guy. Another listener asks whether data center water use is exaggerated and whether you could bury the buildings. Neal says the closed-loop and underground ideas have merit, while Mike says the heat, the noise and the power plants feeding them do not go away. In Goods, Bads, and Others, Mike’s good is wind and solar gaining ground in Europe’s power mix, his bad is a surprise week of prep for a garage sale, and his other is a Dodgers title run that he fears could push baseball into a labor fight. Neal’s good is the Blue Angels turning 80, his bad is what high diesel prices are doing to farmers, and his other is playoff baseball. Hosts Mike Smith, a former Navy F/A-18 pilot and CEO of Aclymate, and Neal Rickner, a former Marine Corps F/A-18 pilot and CEO of Airloom, unpack energy, national security, and the startup economy. Questions or comments? Email hardpoints.show@gmail.com and we may feature yours on a future episode. Hardpoints is brought to you by the Valor Media Network.

  8. Oct 8

    $10,000 a Household for a Data Center and the Town Still Said No. Bribe or Fair Deal?

    Local opposition blocked or delayed an estimated $130 billion in data center projects in the first three months of 2026 alone. In Hazle Township, Pennsylvania, a developer tried to change that math by mailing every household a letter offering $10,000 if its 15-building data center campus gets built. The median household income there is about $60,000, and plenty of residents are still saying no. This week, Mike and Neal ask whether paying your neighbors is the future of how America builds big things, or proof that some things can’t be bought. Neal draws on his time winning over communities for an energy project on the Big Island of Hawaii, where showing up early and often did what money never could. Mike argues that the fear of loss runs deeper than any check — and that a payout offered after the township already voted no was always going to look like a bribe. They get into why people really object (power bills, water, secrecy, and distrust of the billionaires behind the projects), how wind developers pay their neighbors, and what a “pay your own way” power deal like Google’s with Xcel Energy in Minnesota looks like. They also cover why one township’s fight lands on a regional grid, and why the national security race for AI needs boundaries — not a stop sign. In the mailbag, a listener asks about the U.S. military buildup in Palau. Neal shares what he saw landing on islands across the Western Pacific as a Marine in 2002, and why infrastructure out there matters in the competition with China. In Goods, Bads, and Others, Mike’s good is a political ad he recorded that has people recognizing him, his bad is $20 million in Homeland Security money going to ads featuring the president, and his other is Peter Thiel’s comments on evil and competence. Neal’s good is the return of Ali G, his bad is heating oil bills expected to jump more than 30% this winter, and his other is the Navy’s birthday. Hosts Mike Smith, a former Navy F/A-18 pilot and CEO of Aclymate, and Neal Rickner, a former Marine Corps F/A-18 pilot and CEO of Airloom, unpack energy, national security, and the startup economy. Questions or comments? Email hardpoints.show@gmail.com and we may feature yours on a future episode. Hardpoints is brought to you by the Valor Media Network.

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Ratings & Reviews

5
out of 5
6 Ratings

About

Every week, former fighter pilots and current entrepreneurs Neal Rickner & Mike Smith provide unfiltered insights into the biggest stories in startups, energy, and national security.

Information

  • Creator
    VALOR Media Network
  • Years Active
    2025 - 2026
  • Episodes
    75
  • Rating
    Explicit
  • Copyright
    © 2025
  • Show Website
    Hardpoints

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