576 episodes

The Dividend Cafe is your portal for market perspective that is virtually conflict-free, rooted in deep philosophical commitments about how capital should be managed, and understandable for all sorts of investors. Host David L. Bahnsen is a frequent guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, and Fox Business. He is the author of the books, Crisis of Responsibility: Our Cultural Addiction to Blame and How You Can Cure It (Post Hill Press) and The Case for Dividend Growth: Investing in a Post-Crisis World (Post Hill Press).

The Dividend Cafe The Bahnsen Group

    • Business
    • 4.9 • 405 Ratings

The Dividend Cafe is your portal for market perspective that is virtually conflict-free, rooted in deep philosophical commitments about how capital should be managed, and understandable for all sorts of investors. Host David L. Bahnsen is a frequent guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, and Fox Business. He is the author of the books, Crisis of Responsibility: Our Cultural Addiction to Blame and How You Can Cure It (Post Hill Press) and The Case for Dividend Growth: Investing in a Post-Crisis World (Post Hill Press).

    A Different Kind of Sunday

    A Different Kind of Sunday

    Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3JF6mRh

    We are in a moment of “volatile Sundays” in the financial services industry. This is when market actors, policymakers, movers, and shakers have big news to announce on a Sunday in an effort to “beat markets opening”, or as Ben Bernanke once joked that his memoir would be called, “before Asia opens.”

    I lived through it in spades in 2008 – Fannie and Freddie’s conservatorship, Lehman’s bankruptcy, Wachovia into the arms of Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley’s deal with Mitsubishi, and the government’s extended backstop of Citi – all on different Sunday afternoon/evenings in either September, October, or November of 2008. I can tell you where I was, what I was doing, the exact date, the exact time, and all the things. Good times.

    The last couple of Sundays have been a little adventurous, but for different reasons and with different catalysts. In a different environment, the news that UBS had done a “rescue acquisition” of Credit Suisse would have been the biggest news story of the entire year. I want to unpack it this week and share some thoughts on where it may be relevant for you, regular U.S. investors presumably with no direct exposure to either UBS or Credit Suisse, who normally just prefer to use your Sundays for church, family, rest, and sports.

    Let’s jump into the Dividend Cafe!

    Links mentioned in this episode:
    TheDCToday.com
    DividendCafe.com
    TheBahnsenGroup.com

    • 24 min
    The DC Today - Thursday, March 23, 2023

    The DC Today - Thursday, March 23, 2023

    Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3TGllyM

    That the market gave up -500 points in fifteen minutes at the end of the day yesterday but then rebounded +500 points this morning is, to me, validation of my theory regarding yesterday: that it was a closing speculative trade. Fundamentally, the facts on the table (where they are known) are not really subject to much debate.

    So an interesting thing happened on the way home from processing the Fed’s announcement yesterday … Math. The Fed is now projecting a +0.4% real GDP growth rate this year, yet a +3.2% growth rate is currently showing in the Atlanta Fed model for Q1 (others have it at +2% and others at +2.5%). Regardless of whether or not Q1 comes in at +2% or +3% (and this always refers to an annualized quarterly number), you can’t get from there to +0.4% on the year without … wait for it … a recession.

    But the Fed is also showing a projection of no rate cuts this year. And Powell is talking about a credit crunch coming and the financial markets doing their tightening for them. And the first two years of the yield curve are entirely inverted. And the futures market expectation for the 3-month t-bill rate (currently 4.75%) is that in 18 months, it will be below 3.5%. So what should we make of this?

    Links mentioned in this episode:
    TheDCToday.com
    DividendCafe.com
    TheBahnsenGroup.com

    • 8 min
    The DC Today - Wednesday, March 22, 2023

    The DC Today - Wednesday, March 22, 2023

    Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3TAGcni

    All that matters today is what the Fed did and said. And what they did was raise rates a quarter point. And what they said was that “financial conditions have tightened” (well, there you go). And he said that these tighter financial conditions and tougher lending criteria from banks will “factor into their policy decisions” (phew).

    As for a First Republic deal – the bank whose depositors basically now have a backstop from the FDIC but has now seen enough deposit withdrawals to warrant a deal with a bigger back to shore up its capital strength – the issue appears now to be what government backstop or assistance will be a part of any deal (something I predicted last week … any buyer in a position of strength knows the issue is systemic risk, and therefore has the leverage to ask for some sweeteners to come with the deal). Some of the items being discussed (per reports) are liability protection and/or relief on capital requirements and/or other regulatory relaxations. Keep your popcorn handy.

    Links mentioned in this episode:
    TheDCToday.com
    DividendCafe.com
    TheBahnsenGroup.com

    • 10 min
    The DC Today - Tuesday, March 21, 2023

    The DC Today - Tuesday, March 21, 2023

    Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3JvZllP

    I imagine it is quite likely that the bond market has seen its highs in bond yields for quite some time to come (across the whole yield curve). The 10-year sits at 3.5%, down from 4.21%, and I will be surprised if it gets back up to that level. Likewise, the short end sits at 4.5%, down from over 5%, and I don’t see it getting back there, either. If I am wrong, I am wrong, but I don’t think I am here.

    China has bought $88 billion in oil, natural gas, and coal from Russia since the war began last year, up over $30 billion from the year prior and causing Russia to beat out Saudi Arabia as China’s leading supplier.

    The government is evaluating how they can increase FDIC deposit insurance levels above $250,000 without getting Congressional approval.

    Links mentioned in this episode:
    TheDCToday.com
    DividendCafe.com
    TheBahnsenGroup.com

    • 6 min
    The DC Today - Monday, March 20, 2023

    The DC Today - Monday, March 20, 2023

    Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3LBs0Z8

    For the second week in a row, I get to do hours upon hours of reading and writing over the weekend, only to have Sunday interventions make obsolete much of that reading and writing. Keep reading to understand more …

    There is no question that the major story in markets right now is sort of the only story, and that is the day-to-day perceptions of the banking system at home and abroad. Last week the market was down a hundred points Monday but had been up +350 in the middle of the day. Then Tuesday was up +350 before Wednesday was down -280 (but had been down -700 points). Thursday was then up +375 points, and Friday was down -380 points. So all in, from beginning to end, the market was dead flat on the week. Yep. Dead flat but with substantial movement each and every day. And then, today, we were up +383 points, basically the exact same level as Friday’s downturn. THIS is the type of market where people have a chance to act truly, truly foolish. It is also a prime-time example of directionless volatility.

    Links mentioned in this episode:
    TheDCToday.com
    DividendCafe.com
    TheBahnsenGroup.com

    • 17 min
    All That is On Your Mind

    All That is On Your Mind

    Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/42ftwpL

    In this week’s Dividend Cafe, I again decided not to limit myself to one topic but to take the recent avalanche of questions we have received and go through them all, one by one, creating quite a “multi-topic” Dividend Cafe for you. I think you will find the questions intriguing, and I hope you will find the answers satisfying. From questions about student loans to the Fed to depositor insurance to how to select a wealth advisor, we have it all this week (and then some).

    Links mentioned in this episode:
    TheDCToday.com
    DividendCafe.com
    TheBahnsenGroup.com

    • 20 min

Customer Reviews

4.9 out of 5
405 Ratings

405 Ratings

khsaggie ,

Thumbs up - Christian influenced, guided insights.

👍👍👍👍👍

JustinT76 ,

Great Job David and Team!

Really enjoy David and his colleague’s insights…all episodes are good but really great job walking through history on 3/3

Alexa_1991 ,

Excellent Financial Analysis

My goal is to someday have enough to have my money managed by the Bahnsen Group. Until then, listening to Mr Bahnsen’s sane, humble, serious, non-emotional take on the markets is the best thing going.

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