Sound Investing

Paul Merriman

Weekly podcasts with Paul Merriman. Strategic planning for investing at every stage of life.

  1. 2d ago

    Paul Merriman and Rick Ferri: A Conversation Decades in the Making

    Watch the video here. Paul sits down with Rick Ferri — not for a debate, but for the kind of honest conversation two people can only have after spending their careers chasing the same goal from different directions. Rick makes the case against tilting: the small cap premium largely disappeared once the research went public around 1980, and he believes value stopped working around 2006. Paul counters with Table G1b, which shows the results of blending small cap value and the S&P 500 in 10% increments from 1970 through 2025 — returns alongside the worst drawdowns each combination had to survive. Then Rick does something unexpected — he crosses to Paul's side of the table and builds a strong argument for small cap value, framing it as a way to capture the return of private companies that represent half of the economy. Where they land is less about who's right than what it costs to be wrong. If you go down the factor road, Rick says, it's a lifetime commitment — not three years. Also covered: lump sum versus dollar cost averaging, what an hourly advisor can do to help do-it-yourself investors implement their new portfolio, the new Trump accounts for newborns, and why VT may not be your best choice in a taxable account. Both Paul and Rick will be at the Bogleheads Conference, November 13–15 at Green Valley Ranch Resort and Spa in Henderson, NV, near Las Vegas. Registration: boglecenter.net/2026conference Table G1b — Fine Tuning Table: S&P 500 vs. US Small Cap Value: View the table Stay tuned for next week's podcast, a discussion with Chris Pedersen about this interview with Rick.

    Paul Merriman and Rick Ferri: A Conversation Decades in the Making
  2. Aug 12

    Preparing for an upcoming debate with Rick Ferri: Total Market portfolios

    This Friday I'm sitting down with my friend Rick Ferri for a debate that I think matters a great deal, even though — or maybe because — Rick and I agree on almost everything. We both believe in diversification, low costs, index funds, ignoring predictions, and staying the course. Where we part ways is what happens after that. Rick's case is that you should simply own the whole market. A total stock market index fund gives you thousands of companies at an extraordinarily low cost, and adding complexity rarely pays. My case is that the academic research — Fama, French, and decades of market history — shows that greater exposure to small and value companies may raise long-term expected returns. Rick calls that factor tilting. I call it better diversification. He'll argue I'm not adding diversification at all, just changing the weights, and he's right that this is exactly what we're doing. The question is whether it's worth doing. We also take on a second question that gets far too little attention: if you do want small and value exposure, where should you get it? Vanguard, Fidelity, DFA or Avantis — traditional indexing or systematic portfolio management? Differences that look trivial today can compound into very large ones over 40 or 50 years. Neither of us is trying to win. Rick may be right. I may be right. Ask us again in 50 years. What I hope you take away is the process — examining evidence, understanding the alternatives, admitting what nobody knows, and committing to a strategy you can stick with. Because every strategy disappoints you eventually, and what you do in that moment matters more than which one you chose. The podcast and video of my conversation with Rick will be available Wednesday, August 19, 2026. If you have any questions for Rick, send them to Paul@paulmerriman.com.

    Preparing for an upcoming debate with Rick Ferri: Total Market portfolios
  3. Aug 5

    Finding the Perfect Advisor, a Battle Over Words and VT vs. AVGE

    Paul returns from three days at the Garrett Planning Network retreat with a lesson that has almost nothing to do with investments — and everything to do with getting your money's worth from professional advice. Garrett advisors work by the hour, a business model Paul believes eliminates the conflicts of interest built into assets-under-management relationships. For $1,000 to $8,000, he's convinced most families can get extraordinary value from five to ten hours with a thoughtful, trained hourly planner. But there's a catch: the value of those hours depends almost entirely on your willingness to tell the truth. Inspired by a Seth Godin observation — people lie in focus groups, on surveys, and to themselves — Paul explains why the most valuable planning meeting isn't the one where you look financially successful. It's the one where you're completely honest. Paul and his wife are putting this to the test with an hourly planner of their own, and he'll report back in the weeks ahead. Next, Paul shares a private conversation with his longtime friend Rick Ferri, who challenged an idea Paul has taught for decades: that small cap value, large cap value, and international are equity asset classes at all. Rick argues there's only one equity asset class — the total market — and everything else is a segment or style. Paul takes the challenge seriously, does some digging, and explains why the answer matters far more than a debate over definitions. How you think about asset classes shapes the portfolio you'll live with for the next 60 or 70 years. Finally, Paul digs into AVGE, the Avantis globally diversified all-equity ETF, and how it compares to Vanguard's total market approach (VT and VTI). He walks through the meaningful differences: 70/30 U.S./international at Avantis versus 60/40 at Vanguard, and substantially larger positions in mid cap value, small cap value, and small cap blend. He looks at what those tilts have meant historically — including Vanguard's own mid cap value fund turning $10,000 into roughly $160,000 versus $102,000 for the S&P 500 — and why he believes the extra 0.17% in expenses may be money well spent. For investors who don't want to go all-in, Paul offers simple combinations, like a third VT, a third AVGE, and a third AVUV. CHAPTERS 00:00 – Introduction: three topics from the Garrett retreat01:56 – Why hourly advisors have fewer conflicts of interest05:52 – The catch: your willingness to tell the truth06:38 – Seth Godin: "People lie... and they lie to themselves"08:04 – What planners can't fix if they don't know about it13:00 – Paul's debate with Rick Ferri: what is an equity asset class?18:05 – Why the definition shapes your lifetime portfolio21:34 – AVGE vs. VT: U.S./international balance23:07 – Comparing value, blend, and growth exposure25:00 – Mid cap and small cap: what history shows30:15 – Expense ratios and what you're paying for31:35 – Simple combinations: VT + AVGE + AVUV33:15 – Stay the course: closing thoughts Learn more about the Garrett Planning Network

    Finding the Perfect Advisor, a Battle Over Words and VT vs. AVGE
  4. Jul 22

    Stuff Happens: Perspective From Ben Carlson's Risk and Reward

    The hardest part of investing isn't choosing funds — it's building a set of beliefs strong enough to keep you disciplined when the market, the news, and your own emotions all conspire to pull you off course. In this episode, Paul sets aside the usual fine-tuning tables and turns to one of his favorite books, Ben Carlson's Risk and Reward. Table by table, Ben makes the same point in a dozen different ways: the bad stuff is normal, it's happened before, and it will happen again. The goal isn't to avoid it — it's to expect it, so you can stay the course. Along the way, Paul walks through: • The 10 worst days, months, and years in market history — and how the market behaved 1, 5, and 10 years later• Why bonds turn a 43% stock loss into something far gentler, and why a simple 60/40 has never had a losing 20-year period• How stocks actually perform before, during, and after a recession (the average is a gain)• The "dead cat bounces" of 2000–2002 and why three years of false hope wear investors down• What a century of international returns says about putting all your eggs in one basket• The most quietly important number in investing: the market's average daily return of 0.03% — a lifetime of baby steps The theme underneath it all: future returns will likely look a lot like the past. We simply have no way to know the sequence — and that's exactly why realistic expectations, low costs, and broad diversification matter more than any forecast. The biggest enemy of the investor, as the data keeps showing, isn't the market. It's the investor. BRINGING FINANCIAL FREEDOM TO NEW AUDIENCES Last week I spent more than three hours with 89 graduating nurses at Texas A&M University, exploring one life-changing idea: how a handful of smart financial decisions can add millions of dollars to your lifetime financial security. Many of you asked to see what these presentations look like, so we're making this one available to watch (link below). LINKS • Ben Carlson, Risk and Reward (Foundation earns when you use this link)• Texas A&M nursing school presentation (3+ hour video)• Texas A&M student feedback• Mike Piper, Social Security Made Simple / other titles• Personal Finance in Your 20s & 30s For Dummies• Free books from Paul Merriman• Boot Camp series & tables

    Stuff Happens: Perspective From Ben Carlson's Risk and Reward
  5. Jul 8

    Back from the Baltic and 12 of your questions

    Paul returns from a two-week Baltic cruise refreshed and ready to dig into the numbers. He opens with a 12-month performance review of the recommended portfolios at Avantis, DFA and Vanguard — Avantis averaged 31.1% across the 10 equity asset classes in the Ultimate Buy and Hold, versus 27.7% at DFA and 26% at Vanguard — and explains why the non-traditional index funds keep outperforming traditional cap-weighted indexes. Paul also revisits Ben Carlson’s look at the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), which grew to $30 billion under management before falling 65% while the S&P 500 gained more than 60% — a costly lesson in performance chasing, with an estimated $7.5 billion in shareholder losses. Then Paul answers 12 listener questions, with a special deep dive into table G1B — 56 years of S&P 500 vs. small cap value returns, one year at a time, plus every combination in 10% increments. QUESTIONS COVERED1. Funds that match the international and U.S. small cap value asset classes 17:182. Keep investments at Fidelity or move to Vanguard? 18:513. Is the Vanguard money market fund a good long-term emergency fund? 20:194. Pairing the S&P 500 with small cap value — the G1B fine-tuning table 21:465. Why the Four Fund worldwide portfolio uses U.S. small cap value only 31:176. Should geopolitical tension make you cash out? 33:577. Why has small cap value historically produced higher returns? 36:478. Can you get rich from investing? The Rule of 72 and $100 a month 41:519. Is the all-value worldwide portfolio better than the other strategies? (Table H2) 44:0310. Where to find the 10 Fund portfolio allocations 48:3911. Paul’s take on DFA’s micro cap fund (DFMC) 49:1612. Lump sum or dollar cost average when switching funds in a Roth? 51:57 LINKS• Table H2 — Sound Investing Portfolios Comparison (Worldwide All Value)• Table H1a — Sound Investing Portfolios Asset Allocations• Fine-Tuning Table G1B — S&P 500 vs. Small Cap Value• Fine-Tuning Table G1C — S&P 500 vs. SCV, 2025 Returns• Best-in-Class ETF Recommendations

    Back from the Baltic and 12 of your questions
  6. Jul 1

    They're Back... Talking Real Money - Investing Talk

    I joined my longtime friend Tom C**k for a special edition of Talking Real Money — a wide-ranging conversation about the evolution of indexing, the proposed changes to the S&P 500, and why investors should understand both the strengths and limitations of traditional index funds. I explain why firms like Dimensional Fund Advisors and Avantis Investors use a more flexible, evidence-based approach than traditional indexing, and how academic research has reshaped portfolio construction over the past several decades. We also explore lessons from market history, including the importance of understanding major bear markets, determining appropriate risk levels, and building portfolios that align with your personal goals rather than chasing maximum returns. I share insights from the latest Dimensional Matrix Book and explain why I believe studying 100 years of market data helps investors stay disciplined during inevitable downturns. Finally, I introduce a simple but powerful strategy for helping newborns and young children build substantial retirement wealth through small annual investments that can compound over many decades. CHAPTERS0:11 Special guest Paul Merriman joins Talking Real Money0:55 Long friendship and investing partnership between Tom and Paul1:20 S&P 500 rule changes and earlier inclusion of major IPOs like SpaceX2:07 Historical examples of S&P 500 additions and omissions2:35 Microsoft’s delayed entry into the S&P 5002:56 NVIDIA replacing Enron in 20013:29 How index rule changes can affect future returns and volatility4:08 Why indexing remains the preferred strategy for most investors5:16 Traditional versus non-traditional index funds6:37 How Avantis and Dimensional incorporate factors beyond company size8:05 Why factor-based investing differs from traditional indexing9:02 Problems with rigid index reconstitution schedules10:16 Momentum, flexibility, and portfolio management advantages11:22 Introduction to Dimensional’s annual Matrix Book11:53 Using market history rather than forecasts to guide investing decisions13:09 Lessons from past bubbles, crashes, and lost decades14:20 Why Paul trusts academic research more than Wall Street forecasts15:14 The case for small-cap value investing15:49 Clarifying Paul’s allocation to small companies16:53 Investing for heirs, charities, and future generations18:10 Remembering investor panic during the 2008 financial crisis19:18 Determining an appropriate risk level for retirement portfolios20:43 Different investor goals: beating the market, maximizing returns, or minimizing risk21:28 Peace of mind versus maximum growth21:55 Helping young people build retirement wealth early22:54 The $365-per-year retirement funding concept24:09 Final thoughts and appreciation between Tom and Paul Questions? Comments? Click!

    They're Back... Talking Real Money - Investing Talk
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Weekly podcasts with Paul Merriman. Strategic planning for investing at every stage of life.

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