97 episodes

Alpha Trader taps into topics and trends offering in-depth analysis of the market from the perspective of a trader. Hosted by former Seeking Alpha VP of Content Aaron Task and Seeking Alpha Managing Editor of News, Stephen Alpher, the show will feature discussions of the latest news and regular guests from among the smartest traders in the market today.

Alpha Trader Seeking Alpha

    • Business
    • 4.4 • 79 Ratings

Alpha Trader taps into topics and trends offering in-depth analysis of the market from the perspective of a trader. Hosted by former Seeking Alpha VP of Content Aaron Task and Seeking Alpha Managing Editor of News, Stephen Alpher, the show will feature discussions of the latest news and regular guests from among the smartest traders in the market today.

    Understanding the monetary policy transmission mechanism - Mark Dow joins Alpha Trader

    Understanding the monetary policy transmission mechanism - Mark Dow joins Alpha Trader

    This week’s Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher talking with Mark Dow, author of the Behavioral Macro Blog, and a former hedge fund manager.

    Among the topics covered:
    The China regulatory crackdown is clearly not good news for that country’s tech names, and suggests not great relations between Beijing and D.C., but it need not be a headwind for additional records for the S&P 500

    While it’s entirely possible that we’ve already passed the peak growth phase of the current economic recovery, that doesn’t mean solid growth won’t continue for several more quarters or years. Along those same lines, Dow believes that inflation may have peaked as well

    A lot has been made about what the recent big drop in long-term Treasury yields might be saying, but Dow believes that price signals in the government bond market aren’t what they used to be. Find out why

    Dow’s explanation of the monetary policy transmission pipes. The Cliff’s Notes: It’s a closed system, i.e. the Fed’s “printing” of money ends doesn’t go into the economy, it stays in the Federal Reserve deposits of the banks. It’s for this reason that those predicting the next great inflation keep getting it wrong.

    Links of interest:

    Behavioral Macro blog

    The China regulatory crackdown in an fund - The KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF


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    • 50 min
    The link between money supply and inflation breaks - Blu Putnam joins Alpha Trader

    The link between money supply and inflation breaks - Blu Putnam joins Alpha Trader

    This week’s Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher talking with Blu Putnam, chief economist at CME Group.
    Among the topics covered:
    Making sense of the continued decline in long-term yields even as inflation surges

    Why we’ve probably already seen the peak in economic growth for this recovery cycle

    A defense of the Fed’s “transitory” inflation argument

    Alternative data sources like international travel numbers, sports attendance, and restaurant seating might give the first clue about how the Delta variant affects the growth outlook

    Why modern banking means the link between the money supply and inflation has been irrevocably broken, and ...

    Why 70s-style wage-push inflation isn’t an issue in today’s digital economy

    Links of interest:
    What does the bond market know as 10-year yield tumbles
    10-year Treasury yield drops below 1.2% for first time since February

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    • 32 min
    Uncomfortable being short - Fari Hamzei joins Alpha Trader podcast

    Uncomfortable being short - Fari Hamzei joins Alpha Trader podcast

    This week's Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher talking with Fari Hamzei, the founder of Hamzei Analytics and Timer Digest's Top Timer for the past three, five, eight, and ten year periods.
    Among the topics covered:

    Any number of indicators clearly point to stocks in need of at least a modest correction (5%-7%), but the market continues to grind to new records

    Hamzei is on the lookout for a catalyst that might give the all-clear signal for an aggressive short. What that might be is uncertain, but Hamzei suggests the Robinhood IPO might make a blowoff top event in the same way the Coinbase IPO marked the peak for bitcoin earlier this year.

    Hamzei is playing his current bearishness by being long put spreads on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY), but things are uncomfortable. The question he's wrestling with now: Roll the positions forward, or cut bait? Another consideration is the start of earnings season - Hamzei is mulling whether it makes sense to get a little bit long to take advantage of what should be strong results

    Task and Alpher mull Tuesday's inflation report which showed a 13-year high for the headline rate (5.4%) and a 30-year high for the core rate (4.5%). The bond market snoozed right through those big prints, with the 10-year Treasury yield remaining near a multi-month low at 1.36%. What gives? Is the bond market discounting an as of yet unforeseen economic slowdown? Or has all price discovery been lost thanks to the Fed's massive monthly asset purchases? Whatever it might be, Alpher reminds that a fast inflation print isn't necessarily a good reason to sell bonds. After all, the previous CPI high came in 2008 amid one of the great deflationary episodes in market history.

    Links:

    Hamzei Analytics

    Bonds snooze, bitcoin slides, gold perky as inflation rises to 30-year high


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    • 43 min
    Hedging inflation - Quadratic Capital's Nancy Davis joins Alpha Trader

    Hedging inflation - Quadratic Capital's Nancy Davis joins Alpha Trader

    This week’s Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher speaking with Nancy Davis, founder and CIO of Quadratic Capital, and manager of the Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge ETF (IVOL).
    Among the topics discussed:
    No one can be certain of the inflation outlook - be it the Fed’s “transitory,” or somewhat more persistent than that, or of the runaway type

    No matter the outlook, we’re all naturally “short” inflation, so should look to have at least some exposure to higher inflation in our portfolios

    The IVOL holds about 85% of assets in inflation-protected Treasurys (TIP), and uses the remainder of assets to go long fixed-income volatility

    The benchmark Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond Index (ETF version: [[AGG]]) has no inflation protection among its holdings, and - through its high allocation to MBS - is actually short volatility

    The recent rally in Treasurys - which has sent the 10-year yield down to 1.36% - doesn’t make a whole lot of sense given strong economic growth and perky inflation. Is a slowdown on the way, or are investors too aggressive in pricing in rate hikes, or have central bank asset purchases erased the idea of price discovery?

    Why gold is overrated as an inflation hedge

    Links:
    The Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge ETF

    Listen to or subscribe to Alpha Trader on these podcast platforms:

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    • 39 min
    Don't get hurt with opinions - Scott Redler joins Alpha Trader

    Don't get hurt with opinions - Scott Redler joins Alpha Trader

    This week’s Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher speaking with Scott Redler, chief strategist at T3 Live and the T3 Trading Group.
    Among the topics discussed:
    Don’t get hurt with opinions, says Redler, a pure technical trader. He keeps his eye on the 8- and 21-day moving averages for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000. When above, says Redler, that means “risk on,” and he’ll look to buy individual names with the best technical setups.

    Redler is unconcerned that equity markets continue to make new record highs even as falling long-term yields might suggest some trouble ahead. For now, says Redler, stocks are unconcerned about what the bond market might be saying. Again - don’t get hurt with opinions. At some point it might be an issue, but for now the direction for stocks remains higher.

    Among recent small- and mid-cap buys thanks to good technical setups are Skillz (SKLZ), Sunpower (SPWR), Churchill Capital (CCIV), and NIO (NIO).

    Crypto has charts as well, and Redler sees a battle being waged on bitcoin (BTC-USD) around the $30K level. It’s fallen below that level a couple of times in the past few weeks, but has quickly bounced. That tells him there’s a pretty good chance last week’s $28.8K is the lowest we’ll see for a few months.

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    • 41 min
    Unpacking the Fed's hawkish turn - Jim Iuorio and Brent Schutte join Alpha Trader

    Unpacking the Fed's hawkish turn - Jim Iuorio and Brent Schutte join Alpha Trader

    This week’s Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher talking first with Jim Iuorio, director at TJM Institutional Services, and then with Brent Schutte, chief investment strategist at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management.

    Among the topics covered:


    Why Iuorio believes China’s crackdown on Bitcoin (and Beijing seems to mean it this time) makes the long-term thesis even more compelling, even as the bulls are likely to experience more pain in the near-term.

    Last week’s modest hawkish surprise from the Fed was probably not that big of a deal, says Iuorio, but it caught a lot of inflation trade longs too far out over their skis. Hence, we saw big reversals in bond prices, gold, commodities, and the dollar, not to mention the banks.

    It wouldn’t surprise Iuorio if Fed Chair Jay Powell - speaking later this week - pushes back against any ideas that he’ considering tighter policy anytime soon.

    “Investment success in this expansion is likely to be the result of ignoring recent history,” says Brent Schutte, as a combination of fiscal and monetary policies will shift concern about deflation and sluggish economic growth to inflation and speedier growth.

    Schutte also believes that markets are making a bit too much about the FOMC meeting last week. The “dots” may have been shuffled around a bit, but there’s been no hint of any imminent policy change.

    Whether one agrees with it or not, markets are de facto part of the Fed’s mandate these days, says Schutte. Ultimately, that’s going to have the central bank well behind the curve on inflation, and that’s going to be good for stocks - particularly the cyclicals, value names, and small caps.


    Listen to or subscribe to Alpha Trader on these podcast platforms:
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    • 46 min

Customer Reviews

4.4 out of 5
79 Ratings

79 Ratings

jpat34721 ,

Great content horrible audio

If you can ignore the clicks, pops and glitches in the audio, their macro analysis can’t be beat.

DanielBarnes22 ,

Great content

This is a great podcast if you can get over the audio quality. Generally speaking, the host and guests don’t yell or cut one another off. It’s a welcome reprieve from other financial podcasts.

rzadigi ,

Excellent

I’m a traditional buy and hold investor but have really been enjoying the big picture aspects of this podcast. The host and guests are extremely experienced and informative and very transparent with their opinions. I learn so many things every time I listen. Much thanks!!

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