Sharp Football Analysis by Warren Sharp

Warren Sharp
  • 4.5 (204)
  • Football
  • Updated Semiweekly

Warren Sharp is joined by his NFL & College Football Analysts to pore through the data and bring you the smartest people in the sport to find edges to exploit and advantages to make better bets and win fantasy football leagues & contests! Featuring insights, projections and commentary from Warren Sharp, Rich Hribar, Ray Summerlin, Ryan McCrystal and the Sharp Football team!

  1. 1d ago

    NFL Week 4 Takeaways and Monday Night Football Best Bets

    NFL Week 4 takeaways from the numbers. The most penalties in any NFL week since 2015 and record offensive flags in the red zone, the Texans blew a 10 point lead because they cannot run, the Eagles went three and out five times in the second half, the Rams won while playing left handed, and the Bengals offense fell apart without Ja'Marr Chase. Plus a best bet for tonight's Monday Night Football with Curtis. WHAT YOU'LL LEARN 17 penalties per game in Week 4, the most in any week since 2015 and the most after September since 2005Offenses flagged 6.18 times per 100 snaps, the most through four weeks since 2000, with record red zone penaltiesHow Houston built a 16-6 lead from under center, then went 72% shotgun and ran six times in the second halfDallas in the second half: 56% success, +0.50 EPA per play, a first down on 41% of snaps, all number oneJalen Hurts on third down: 8.4 yards to go, 90% of throws short of the sticks, one completionRams by personnel: -0.14 EPA per play in 11, +0.87 in 12, +0.98 in 13, and the second half run game that won itThe Bengals with and without Chase: +0.40 to +0.04 EPA per attempt, 89% to 69% completionsBo Nix: 24 first half attempts at 3.9 yards each, 41% of throws at or behind the lineThe new free stats page and the Pass Rate Over Expected toolMonday Night Football: Falcons at Saints, with Curtis on the matchup he likesCHAPTERS00:00 Intro00:32 The refs: 17 penalties per game and record offensive flags08:27 Subscribe09:04 Texans can't run and it cost them12:32 The Cowboys second half offense15:00 Strength of schedule: Texans and Jaguars15:53 Eagles offense still broken18:14 Rams played left handed and won20:32 Ja'Marr Chase injury was massive for Cincy23:57 What is the Broncos offense doing?28:57 Monday Night Football: Falcons at Saints, with Curtis31:48 The new free stats page and Pass Rate Over Expected tool38:23 Wrap-up GET THE FREE NEWSLETTEREvery article we write, plus free bets and player props, sent straight to your inbox. Sign up in 30 seconds at https://sharp.football FREE NFL STATS TOOLSPass Rate Over Expected and more, free on the new stats page: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/stats-nfl/ GET THE FULL SLATEWeekly, monthly and full season packages are available now at https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/packages/ Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

  2. 4d ago

    (39-13, 75%) NFL Week 4 Best Bets & Player Props 2026

    NFL Week 4 best bets, player props and referee picks, plus three of the biggest college football games of the weekend. Warren Sharp opens with three matchups that decide how you bet the weekend, then Ryan McCrystal on the Saturday college slate, Rich Hribar with three favorite props including the first London game of the year, Joe Gibbs on the Week 4 referee crews, and the best bet of the week to close. 50% off any season long or monthly package with code SHOW50: https://sharp.football Covered in this episode: Brian Flores, Kirk Cousins, Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, Daniel Jones, Brad Allen, Craig Wrolstad, Land Clark. WHAT YOU'LL LEARN• Why the number one blitz rate in the NFL on early downs is a problem for a quarterback who has not faced an above average blitz yet• The play action split that makes one offense look like two different teams, and the defense that is elite without it and bottom five against it• Why a pass rush that gets home on 59% of third downs only gets there on 25% of early downs, and what that means for a quarterback who is barely pressured• Three college games where a coordinator change, a missed tackle rate and a quarterback holding the ball decide the number• How three referee crews are calling penalties this season and which teams it helps CHAPTERS00:00 What is on the show this week01:39 Why this show is more than the bets02:52 Brian Flores gets the team that fired him05:36 The play action lever Las Vegas is not pulling11:04 Trevor versus time14:20 Ryan McCrystal on three college games23:14 50% off with code SHOW5024:20 Rich Hribar's three props34:01 Joe Gibbs on the Week 4 referees42:50 OddsJam43:19 Best bet of the week52:14 Back on Monday  Watch the full show on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_7s695JYfdg PROMO CODESSHOW50 for 50% off any season long or monthly betting package at https://sharp.footballWARREN at OddsJam for a free week trial and 40% off the first month: https://oddsjam.com/nfl/screen/moneyline?promo=warren GUESTSRyan McCrystal, college football betting analyst, Sharp Football AnalysisRich Hribar, Sharp Football AnalysisJoe Gibbs, referee analyst, Sharp Football Analysis MORE RESOURCESSharp Football Analysis: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.comBetting packages: https://sharp.football Follow UsWarren Sharp on X: @SharpFootballRich Hribar on X: @LordReebsSharp Football Analysis on X: @SharpFBAnalysisYouTube: @SharpFootballAnalysis Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

  3. 5d ago

    NFL Week 4 Matchups: What You Need to Know Before Kickoff

    Warren Sharp and Rich Hribar break down the four matchups that decide Week 4, plus two under-the-radar games nobody is talking about. WHAT YOU'LL LEARN Why the Eagles pass defense ranking is a mirage, and the three quarterbacks it was built onThe coverage Vic Fangio has quietly taken away from Matthew Stafford in every meetingWhere Sean McVay gets Kyren Williams the box count he never sees anywhere elseThe one formation split that explains the entire Joe Burrow vs Jacksonville matchupWhat happens to the Jaguars pass defense when the pass rush does not get homeThe Buffalo coverage call that broke Drake Maye last season, and whether a new coordinator goes back to itWhat Drake Maye actually does well, and the exact moment in a dropback when it falls apartThe change D'Amico Ryans has made in Houston, and why Dallas is built to attack itWhat Nico Collins is worth to C.J. StroudThe play action split that should decide Chiefs at RaidersWhy the Chargers offensive line is walking into the worst possible building50% off monthly and full season packages with code SHOW50 at sharp.football CHAPTERS00:00 Cold open00:30 Welcome, and the week ahead00:59 MATCHUP 1: Rams offense vs the Eagles defense10:27 The schedule Jalen Hurts has actually faced13:53 Subscribe14:32 MATCHUP 2: Joe Burrow vs the Jaguars defense19:40 The pass protections Jacksonville has faced22:09 50% off monthly and full season packages, code SHOW5023:37 MATCHUP 3: Drake Maye vs the Bills pass defense25:06 The Cover 6 blueprint30:25 The Worksheet31:00 MATCHUP 4: the Texans defense vs Dak Prescott35:43 What Nico Collins is worth to C.J. Stroud37:46 SNEAKY: Raiders play action vs the Chiefs40:13 SNEAKY: Seahawks pass rush vs Justin Herbert42:36 Wrap Rich writes a full Worksheet preview for every game, every week at sharpfootballanalysis.com New shows every week: Matchups on Thursday, Best Bets on Friday, the recap on Monday. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

  4. Sep 28

    NFL Week 3 Takeaways and Monday Night Football Best Bets

    NFL Week 3 takeaways from the numbers. Dallas mismanaged the clock at the Baltimore 7, the Chargers got 5 Buffalo turnovers and did not even cover, and halftime adjustments decided several games. Plus a few best bets for Monday Night Football, Eagles at Bears, with Curtis. What You'll Learn • Why the Cowboys' timeout with 15 seconds left, the throwaway and the touchback handed Baltimore a chance• Derrick Henry's short yardage numbers: 53% first down rate on 75 runs, ranked 70th of 73 backs• How teams plus 4 in turnovers with 3 or fewer punts were 151-3 straight up since 1990, and the Chargers still lost• The four Chargers drives inside the Bills 30 that produced three field goals, a miss and an interception• Mike McCarthy's halftime change: shotgun from 73% to 52%, third downs from 7.2 to 4.3 yards to go• Why Cincinnati saw the lightest boxes of the week and still ran only 16 times• Jacksonville's run game against the Patriots, and why New England's early down runs against light boxes had a 0% success rate• Drake Maye holding the ball 3.3 seconds and the lowest third down passer rating of the week• How Seattle threw for 393 yards, outgained Washington 6.8 to 4.0 yards per play, and lost• Marcus Mariota pressured on 54% of dropbacks with 0 interceptions and 3 touchdowns• Bryce Young against man coverage versus zone• Monday Night Football: Eagles at Bears, with Curtis on the angles he is watching Chapters 00:00 Intro00:44 The Cowboys botched the end of the game in Baltimore03:53 Derrick Henry in short yardage07:06 How did the Chargers not even cover?12:25 Subscribe and the Best Bet record13:17 Steelers offensive tweaks at halftime13:39 Cincinnati saw light boxes and still rarely ran15:56 What happened to the Patriots offense?20:25 The Commanders unlikely win over Seattle23:37 Bryce Young was fine against man coverage25:08 Monday Night Football: Eagles at Bears, with Curtis33:59 Subscribe to the free newsletter34:39 Wrap-up Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cTi_Vlrn9kI Get the free newsletter: every article we write, plus free bets and player props, sent straight to your inbox. Sign up at sharp.football Get the full slate: weekly, monthly and full season packages at sharpfootballanalysis.com/packages Guests: Curtis Hirsch Follow UsTwitter/X: @SharpFBAnalysisYouTube: Sharp Football AnalysisWebsite: sharpfootballanalysis.com Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

  5. Sep 25

    (38-13, 75% Lifetime) NFL Week 3 Best Bets & Player Props 2026

    NFL Week 3 best bets, player props and referee picks, plus three of the biggest college football games of the weekend. Warren Sharp is 38-13 (75%) lifetime on podcast best bets, and this is the full Week 3 card: his best bet of the week plus a second bet, three props from Rich Hribar, Ryan McCrystal on three Saturday games and Joe Gibbs on the Week 3 referees. It starts with four NFL matchups. The Chargers defense, stout against the run and falling apart against the pass, going to Buffalo to face Josh Allen. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who has every Seattle touchdown this season, against a Washington defense that blitzes. The Cleveland Browns, who have played the two toughest run defenses in the league and now get one of the softest. And Drake Maye going to Jacksonville, into the coverage that keeps finding him. 45% off the season: the computer totals are back, and code SHOW45 takes 45% off any full season betting package. 70% on computer total recommendations historically over the last six seasons, and 739-431 since 2006, a 63% win rate. sharp.football Games covered: Ole Miss at Florida, USC at Oregon, Texas at Tennessee, Chargers at Bills, Seahawks at Commanders, Browns at Panthers, Patriots at Jaguars, Jets at Lions, Titans at Giants, Chiefs at Dolphins, Texans at Colts, Rams at Broncos on Sunday Night Football and Eagles at Bears on Monday Night Football. WHAT YOU WILL LEARN • Why the Chargers are number two in the NFL against early down runs and still in trouble in Buffalo• The play action and two high mismatch that Buffalo does not have to work to create• Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s blitz usage and what Washington’s blitz rate does to it• Why Cleveland’s whole offensive profile has been a strength of schedule story, and what changes this week• The coverage Drake Maye keeps seeing, and who plays it most in the NFL• Ryan McCrystal on three Saturday games, including the one data point he trusts this early in the season• Rich Hribar’s three Week 3 props and the numbers behind each one, including where he ladders• The referee trends behind Joe Gibbs’ three picks, including a crew the Broncos are 1-6 with at home• Warren’s Week 3 best bet, plus one more bet on a second game CHAPTERS 00:00 Warren’s best bets record and today’s show01:33 Chargers at Bills05:11 Seahawks at Commanders08:21 Browns at Panthers13:26 Patriots at Jaguars16:06 College football with Ryan McCrystal16:24 Ole Miss at Florida18:53 USC at Oregon20:42 Texas at Tennessee24:46 45% off the season with code SHOW4525:57 Rich Hribar prop 1: Jets at Lions29:35 Prop 2: Titans at Giants33:04 Prop 3: Chiefs at Dolphins36:38 The ref report with Joe Gibbs37:10 Texans at Colts38:51 Rams at Broncos, Sunday Night Football41:00 Eagles at Bears, Monday Night Football42:41 OddsJam, code WARREN43:11 Warren’s best bet of the week47:43 One more bet50:04 Wrap-up Watch the video version on YouTube: Sharp Football Analysis PROMO CODESSHOW45: 45% off any full season betting package at sharp.footballOddsJam code WARREN: free week trial and 40% off your first month, oddsjam.com GUESTSRich Hribar, Sharp Football Analysis, @LordReebsRyan McCrystal, Sharp Football Analysis, college footballJoe Gibbs, Sharp Football Analysis, referee analysisHosted by Warren Sharp, @SharpFootball MORE RESOURCESThe WorksheetThe 2026 Football Preview bookAll packages Follow UsYouTube • X • sharpfootballanalysis.com Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

  6. Sep 24

    NFL Week 3 Preview: The Matchups That Decide the Big Games

    Four matchups decide the biggest games of NFL Week 3: the Bills offense against the Chargers defense, Joe Burrow against the Steelers pass rush, the Ravens offense against the Cowboys defense in Brazil, and the Rams offense against the Broncos defense on Sunday night. 45% off the rest of the season. The computer totals start this week, a 70% win rate over the last six seasons. Use code SHOW45 at sharp.football, which comes out around 50 dollars a week for props, sides, totals, teasers, derivatives and the computer totals. Players discussed: Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, Omarion Hampton, Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, Drake Maye, Aaron Rodgers, Lamar Jackson, Zay Flowers, Ronnie Stanley, Caleb Downs, Malik Hooker, Davante Adams, Puka Nacua, Patrick Surtain II, Terrance Ferguson, Bryce Young, Baker Mayfield. What you will learn • Why the Chargers schedule gets far harder starting this week• What Buffalo changed on offense and why the numbers say it is real• How Pittsburgh's pass rush attacks a quick passing game• Why Joe Burrow has barely played the Steelers in three seasons• What the Cowboys injuries in the secondary mean against Lamar Jackson• How the Saints slowed Baltimore in the second half, and whether Dallas can copy it• What the Rams do without Puka Nacua, and why it points at the run game• Two under the radar matchups for Sunday Chapters 00:00 Welcome to the Matchup Show00:29 Four matchups this week01:06 Matchup 1: Bills offense vs Chargers defense04:09 Josh Allen is pushing it downfield05:06 The Chargers defense through two weeks07:45 Are you subscribed?08:19 Matchup 2: Joe Burrow vs the Steelers defense10:13 Burrow's quick game vs Pittsburgh's pass rush13:52 Burrow has barely played the Steelers14:49 The computer totals are back16:09 Matchup 3: Ravens offense vs Cowboys defense18:39 Who the Cowboys are missing20:55 Lamar Jackson with a clean pocket23:54 How the Saints slowed Lamar26:07 The Worksheet: every game, every week26:49 Matchup 4: Rams offense vs Broncos defense28:22 Davante Adams without Puka Nacua30:54 The Rams run game vs Denver32:39 Sneaky matchup: Panthers at Browns36:00 Sneaky matchup: Baker Mayfield vs Brian Flores38:16 See you next week The Worksheet, a full preview of every single game every week written by Rich Hribar, is included with the fantasy packages: the worksheet. All packages: sharpfootballanalysis.com/packages Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/l7rPe4OwrS4 Follow UsX: @SharpFootballX: @LordReebs Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

  7. Sep 17

    (37-13, 74% Lifetime) NFL Week 2 Best Bets & Player Props 2026

    NFL Week 2 best bets, player props and referee picks, plus the biggest college football game of the weekend. Warren Sharp is 37-13 (74%) lifetime on podcast best bets, and this is the full Week 2 card: his best bet of the week, three props from Rich Hribar, Ryan McCrystal on LSU at Ole Miss and Joe Gibbs on the Week 2 referees. It starts with three things from Week 1 that change how you bet Week 2. Houston's revamped offense and what it does to opponent play volume against the Bengals. Tampa's blitz rate against a Cleveland offense that cannot get the ball out. And the Eagles, a league low on first down and a win anyway, now on the road in Tennessee. Two weeks free: code SHOW35 on the NFL Plus monthly package gets you a full month of Warren's NFL recommendations plus Rich Hribar's breakdown of every game for the price of two weeks. https://sharp.football Games covered: LSU at Ole Miss, Bengals at Texans, Jaguars at Broncos, Saints at Ravens, Browns at Buccaneers and Giants at Rams on Monday Night Football. WHAT YOU WILL LEARN How Houston's offense changed its intent in Week 1 and why opponent play volume is the number to watch Why Tampa's blitz rate against a slow time to throw is the mismatch of the week Why the Eagles offense is a problem even in a win, and what the first down and play action numbers say Ryan McCrystal on LSU at Ole Miss, the doubtful quarterback, and why the line has barely moved Rich Hribar's three Week 2 props and the numbers behind each one, including where he ladders The referee trends behind Joe Gibbs' three picks, including the best home field referee in the league Warren's Week 2 best bet and a scheduling angle that has only happened four times since 1990 CHAPTERS 00:00 Warren's best bets record and today's show 01:10 Houston's revamped offense and opponent play volume 04:02 Tampa's pressure against Cleveland 08:31 What is going on with the Eagles offense 11:39 College football with Ryan McCrystal 12:06 LSU at Ole Miss 20:51 Two weeks free with code SHOW35 22:12 Rich Hribar prop 1: Saints at Ravens 25:04 Prop 2: Jaguars at Broncos 30:44 Prop 3: Jaguars at Broncos 32:43 The ref report with Joe Gibbs 33:20 Bengals at Texans 35:21 Jaguars at Broncos 37:05 Giants at Rams, Monday Night Football 39:29 OddsJam, code WARREN 40:10 Warren's best bet of the week 47:59 Wrap-up PROMO CODES SHOW35: two weeks free on the NFL Plus monthly package at https://sharp.football OddsJam code WARREN: free week trial and 40% off your first month, https://oddsjam.com/nfl/screen/moneyline?promo=warren GUESTS Rich Hribar, Sharp Football Analysis, @LordReebs Ryan McCrystal, Sharp Football Analysis, college football Joe Gibbs, Sharp Football Analysis, referee analysis Hosted by Warren Sharp, @SharpFootball MORE RESOURCES The Worksheet: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/fantasy/the-worksheet/ The 2026 Football Preview book: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/warren-sharp-book-nfl-football-preview/ All packages: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/packages/ Follow us: https://www.youtube.com/@SharpFootballAnalysis and https://x.com/SharpFootball Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

  8. Sep 17

    NFL Week 2 Preview: The Matchups That Decide the Big Games

    Three matchups decide the biggest games of NFL Week 2: the Bears offense against Brian Flores and the Vikings defense, the Steelers offense against the Patriots defense, and Dak Prescott against the Commanders pass defense. Buy two weeks, get two weeks free. A full month of NFL betting recommendations plus Rich Hribar's breakdown of every game for the price of two weeks. Use code SHOW35 on the NFL Plus Monthly package at sharp.football. Players discussed: Caleb Williams, Jordan Love, Carson Wentz, Justin Jefferson, Aaron Rodgers, Jaylen Warren, Rico Dowdle, Jadarian Price, Drew Lock, Dak Prescott, Jalen Hurts, CeeDee Lamb, Jayden Daniels, Derrick Henry, Jahmyr Gibbs, Cam Ward. What you will learn • How Brian Flores has blitzed Caleb Williams in all four meetings• The shotgun vs under center split that could decide Bears at Vikings• What the Vikings offense looks like with Carson Wentz• How much the Steelers offense changed with Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy• Why the Steelers backfield split could tighten toward Jaylen Warren• Why Dak Prescott's Week 1 was not all on Dak, and what he does against the blitz• Two under the radar matchups for Sunday Chapters 00:00 Welcome to the Matchup Show00:36 Matchup 1: Bears offense vs Vikings defense05:08 Shotgun or under center: how the Bears beat Flores09:25 Three shows every week10:03 The Vikings offense with Carson Wentz12:48 Matchup 2: Steelers offense vs Patriots defense15:09 Aaron Rodgers and the new Steelers offense17:26 Can Pittsburgh run on New England19:43 Jaylen Warren vs Rico Dowdle21:37 Matchup 3: Dak Prescott vs Commanders pass defense23:32 Dak vs the blitz and Dan Quinn26:39 The Cowboys defense problem30:24 The Worksheet: every game, every week31:05 Sneaky important matchups31:40 Rich's pick: Ravens run game vs the Saints34:14 Warren's pick: Eagles defense vs Titans offense36:52 See you next week The Worksheet, a full preview of every single game every week written by Rich Hribar, is included with the fantasy packages: the worksheet. All packages: sharpfootballanalysis.com/packages Follow UsX: @SharpFootballX: @LordReebs Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

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About

Warren Sharp is joined by his NFL & College Football Analysts to pore through the data and bring you the smartest people in the sport to find edges to exploit and advantages to make better bets and win fantasy football leagues & contests! Featuring insights, projections and commentary from Warren Sharp, Rich Hribar, Ray Summerlin, Ryan McCrystal and the Sharp Football team!

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