Grain Markets and Other Stuff

Joe Vaclavik
  • 4.9 (385)
  • Business
  • Updated Daily

Joe Vaclavik and Mackenzie Johnston discuss the grain markets, the business of farming, news related to agriculture, and a variety of other topics.

  1. 1d ago

    Trump-Xi Meeting: Cancelation Rumors, Soybeans Lower

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links โ€” Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. ๐Ÿซ˜ Soybean meal ripped to a new contract high of $372.90 before settling at $368.70 as rain threatens to delay Corn Belt harvest just as crush plants scramble for beans. ๐Ÿ“ˆ Corn and wheat both settled lower, with wheat pressured by hopes for a Russia-Ukraine deal that could ease Black Sea shipping. โš”๏ธ Trump is weighing whether to resume large-scale attacks on Iran or pursue a diplomatic path, with a Tuesday meeting set with six Gulf nations to map out next steps. โ›ฝ Meanwhile diesel hit a record $6.45/gal and gasoline jumped to $4.47/gal, ramping up inflationary and political pressure. ๐Ÿ“‰ US corn export sales fell 47% week-over-week to 1mmt, with Mexico the top buyer. ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ Soybean sales dropped 35% to 1.7mmt with China leading purchases, while wheat sales rose 68% to 325,900mt on demand from the Philippines. ๐ŸŒง๏ธ USDA's drought monitor showed improvement in parts of the Corn Belt and High Plains after heavy rain, with total drought coverage now at 25% vs. 37% a year ago. ๐Ÿ„ Winter wheat (57%) and cattle (58%) remain the most drought-stressed categories. ๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฝ The Santa Teresa port will reopen to Mexican feeder cattle imports on September 24, becoming the second border crossing to resume after nearly two years of screwworm-related closures. ๐Ÿฎ Imports will start slow at ~750 head/day, adding to the roughly 6,000 head already processed since Douglas, AZ reopened in August.

  2. 2d ago

    US Harvest Delays?? + Trump HATES the Fed Rate Hike

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links โ€” Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. ๐ŸŒง๏ธ Heavy rain is soaking the Corn Belt again, with parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin bracing for up to 10 inches through the weekend. Harvest delays and flooding are expected as fieldwork stalls across Iowa, Nebraska, South Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. ๐Ÿ’ฐ The Fed hiked interest rates a quarter point to 3.75%-4.00%, its first increase in over three years. Energy prices from the US-Iran war and inflation at 3.4% are keeping pressure on for possibly another hike this year. ๐ŸŒฑ Soybeans ticked up ahead of US-China trade talks, with the Nov26 contract near $13.21 as traders eye stronger Chinese purchases. Corn slipped slightly to $5.34 on the Dec26 contract, while wheat finished modestly higher. โ›ฝ Russia looks set to extend its diesel export ban through October as Ukrainian drone strikes keep hammering refining capacity. US diesel prices hit a record $6.31/gallon as the global market feels the squeeze. ๐ŸŒพ Black Sea attacks are forcing Russia to reroute wheat exports through pricier, less efficient Baltic and Far East channels. Despite the disruption, USDA still expects Russia to remain the world's top wheat exporter this year. ๐Ÿญ US ethanol production held steady at 1.099 million barrels per day, up 4.2% year-over-year. Stocks climbed to a 19-week high while margins across the Corn Belt stayed mostly positive.

  3. 3d ago

    Meal Leads Soybean Higher + Diesel Export BAN??

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links โ€” Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. ๐ŸŒฑ NOPA August Crush Data โ€“ US soybean crush hit an 11-month low of 205.456 million bushels, down 5.2% from July, but still an all-time record for August. Soybean oil stocks tumbled to their lowest since November 2024 at 1.201 billion pounds, missing trade estimates. ๐Ÿ“‰ ๐Ÿ“ˆ Grains Rally โ€“ Soybeans surged nearly 15 cents to $13.19/bushel as the smaller-than-expected crush lit a fire under meal futures, with corn and wheat riding the spillover higher. ๐ŸŒฝ๐ŸŒพ Wheat also got a boost from hopes of Black Sea de-escalation. โ›ฝ Diesel Export Ban Talk โ€“ Senate Majority Leader John Thune floated banning diesel exports as US prices hit a record $6.27/gallon, though the Trump administration hasn't signed on. ๐Ÿš› Critics doubt a ban would meaningfully lower prices, and some lawmakers are pushing a federal diesel tax suspension instead. ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ US-China Tariff Talks โ€“ The US and China are negotiating tariff cuts on ~$30 billion in trade, including agricultural goods, just a week before Xi's visit to meet President Trump. ๐Ÿค Lower tariffs could spark fresh Chinese soybean buying, a welcome boost as US crushers face tight Q4 supplies. ๐ŸŒง๏ธ Canadian Wheat Harvest Delays โ€“ Persistent rain has stalled what was shaping up to be a record Canadian wheat crop, with Saskatchewan only 27% harvested (vs. a 58% average) and Alberta at 21% (vs. 44%). โ„๏ธ No freeze is expected until late November, but every wet day raises the risk of quality losses. ๐Ÿ’น Treasury Yields Spike โ€“ The 10-year Treasury yield broke above 5% for the first time since 2007, driven by surging oil prices and inflation fears tied to Middle East tensions. ๐Ÿฆ AI-fueled corporate borrowing and rising government debt are adding extra upward pressure ahead of the Fed's rate decision.

  4. 4d ago

    BOOMING Soybean Demand: New Wisc Crush Plant + China Keeps Buying

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links โ€” Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. ๐ŸŒฑ CHS Announces Major Wisconsin Soybean Plant: CHS is building a ~$700 million soybean processing facility near Evansville, WI, capable of crushing 80 million bushels annually and boosting the company's total capacity by more than two-thirds. ๐Ÿ—๏ธ Set to open in fall 2028, the plant would theoretically process ~66% of Wisconsin's entire soybean crop. ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ China Passes Halfway Mark on Soybean Purchases: China booked at least 1mmt of US soybeans last week, pushing total marketing-year purchases to roughly 13mmt against its 25mmt annual commitment through 2028. ๐Ÿค The milestone lands just ahead of the Xi-Trump meeting in Washington next week, with hopes the buying pace keeps fueling the soybean rally. ๐ŸŒพ Wheat Slides on Black Sea De-Escalation Signs: Chicago wheat fell 3 cents to $7.22/bu and KC wheat dropped 6 cents to $7.93/bu after Trump announced Ukraine and Russia agreed to halt energy infrastructure attacks. ๐Ÿ“ˆ Soybeans and corn moved higher instead, climbing 8 and 3 cents, respectively, on harvest delay concerns and rising crude prices. ๐Ÿš‚ Rail Fuel Surcharges Spike 153%: Average rail fuel surcharges jumped to 48 cents per car-mile, now eating up 11% of total transport costs for corn and soybeans, more than double last year. โ›ฝ Soaring diesel prices ($6.23/gal national average) are driving the increase, with costs ultimately trickling down to farmers via weaker basis. ๐ŸŒฝ Corn Conditions Tick Up, Harvest Begins: Corn ratings improved slightly to 57% good-to-excellent while harvest hit 8% complete, in line with the five-year average. ๐Ÿซ˜ Soybean conditions held steady at 58% good-to-excellent, with harvest just getting started at 6% complete. ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท Brazil Soybean Planting Kicks Off: Brazilian soybean planting reached 0.4% complete, running ahead of last year's pace despite excessive moisture slowing progress in some regions. ๐ŸŒฝ First-crop corn planting also advanced to 22% complete, well ahead of both last week and last year. ๐Ÿšข Export Inspections Mixed Last Week: Corn shipments slipped 9% week-over-week to 1.5mmt, while soybean shipments jumped 45% to 672,759mt with China making up about 49% of inspections. ๐Ÿ“ฆ Wheat shipments rose 5.9% to 456,720mt but remained well below year-ago levels.

  5. 5d ago

    Funds are Record-Long Grains, But Rake Hikes are Coming

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links โ€” Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. ๐ŸŒฝ USDA cut its national corn yield to 178.5 bpa (from 180.7) and production to 15.8 billion bushels, close to expectations. ๐Ÿ“‰ Even so, it's still the second-largest corn crop on record, while corn ending stocks fell to 1.567 billion bushels (stocks-to-use below 10%) and global stocks hit a 12-year low; soybean yield ticked up to 52.8 bpa. ๐Ÿ”ฅ August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, right in line with expectations, driven largely by a 3.9% jump in gasoline prices. ๐Ÿ“ˆ Traders now see a nearly 90% chance of a Fed rate hike this week, up sharply from roughly 70% before the report. ๐Ÿ’ฐ Friday's CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed funds net buying 13k corn and 22k soybean contracts, pushing both net longs to record highs (414k corn, 257k soybeans). ๐Ÿ“Š Funds sold 10k SRW wheat contracts, but the combined corn/soybean/wheat fund net long hit a record 696k contracts. ๐ŸŽฒ Kalshi is eyeing an expansion into agricultural perpetual futures, aiming to give farmers and traders a new way to gain leveraged exposure to commodity prices. โ›ฝ The company is also pursuing an oil-linked perpetual tied to WTI crude, with contracts trading 23 hours a day, five days a week. ๐ŸŒŽ Corn export sales came in at 1.9mmt for the new marketing year, beating expectations with Mexico as the top buyer, while soybean sales jumped 35% week-over-week to 2.6mmt led by China. ๐ŸŒพ Wheat sales hit a marketing-year low of 194,200mt, down 38% from the prior week, with the Philippines as the top buyer.

  6. Sep 11

    Soybeans Hit 32-Month High + $6 Natl Avg Diesel and Inflation

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links โ€” Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. ๐ŸŒฑ Soybeans surge on China demand โ€” Nov26 futures jumped nearly 23ยข to close near $13.32/bu after China snapped up ~1mmt of US soybeans this week. The buying comes just two weeks ahead of the expected Xi-Trump meeting in Washington ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ. ๐Ÿ“Š USDA WASDE Day โ€” Traders are bracing for today's 11am CST Crop Production report, with a notable cut to corn yield expected and only modest reductions to soybeans. Corn ending stocks are projected to fall sharply while wheat stocks edge higher, both domestically and globally ๐ŸŒฝ๐ŸŒพ. ๐Ÿ›ข๏ธ Crude oil rockets higher โ€” Brent surged 6.3% to top $107/bbl and WTI jumped 6.7% above $102/bbl, both hitting highs not seen since mid-May, as Middle East attacks disrupted export routes beyond the Strait of Hormuz. Trump warned the US-Iran conflict could drag past the midterms, while gas prices climbed to $4.28/gal โ›ฝ๐Ÿ”ฅ. ๐Ÿ“ˆ Inflation heats up โ€” August PPI rose 0.4% m/m and 5.4% y/y, driven largely by a 4.2% jump in energy prices. Markets are now pricing in a 70% chance of a Fed rate hike, with the CPI report due out this morning ๐Ÿ’ต๐Ÿ“‰. โ›ฝ Ethanol update โ€” Weekly production slipped 1% to 1.1M barrels/day, even as stocks climbed to a seasonal high of 25.19M barrels. Corn Belt margins strengthened, ranging from 5ยข negative to 40ยข positive ๐ŸŒฝ๐Ÿญ. ๐Ÿšข Flash sales to China โ€” USDA confirmed 272,000mt of soybeans sold to China and 206,500mt to unknown destinations, both for 2026/2027 delivery. Check the China soybean purchase tracker below for the full picture ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ“ฆ. ๐ŸŒฆ๏ธ Drought & weather watch โ€” Rain eased drought in parts of Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin, while dry heat worsened conditions across Illinois, Missouri and Oklahoma. NOAA confirmed summer 2026 was the hottest on record for the US, with August alone averaging a record 75.6ยฐF ๐ŸŒก๏ธ๐ŸŒต. ๐Ÿฅ‡ Kalshi breaks new ground โ€” The prediction platform launched gold and silver perpetual futures after CFTC approval โ€” the agency's first nod for a non-crypto perpetual. Traditional exchanges like CME are pushing back hard against the move ๐Ÿฅˆโš–๏ธ.

  7. Sep 10

    Diesel Hits Another Record, Inflation Is BACK

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links โ€” Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. ๐Ÿ›ข๏ธ Oil Surges on US-Iran Tensionsโ€”Brent crude jumped 3.4% to top $100/barrel (highest since late May), while WTI climbed 3.3% to over $96. Pain at the pump continues as gas hits $4.22/gallon and diesel sets a record $5.94/gallon, squeezing consumers and supply chains alike! โ›ฝ๐Ÿ“ˆ ๐ŸŒพ Wheat Tumbles Despite War Disruptionsโ€”Chicago wheat fell ~18ยข to $7.29/bushel, and KC wheat dropped ~13ยข to $8.06, even as Russia-Ukraine strikes choke off Black Sea shipments. Hopes for resumed US-mediated peace talks seem to be capping the rally. ๐Ÿ•Š๏ธ๐Ÿ“‰ ๐ŸŒฝ Corn & Soybeans Slide Ahead of USDA Reportโ€”Corn eased ~6ยข to $5.28/bushel, and soybeans lost ~7ยข to $13.10 as traders position for Friday's big WASDE release. ๐Ÿ“Šโณ ๐Ÿ“… All Eyes on Friday's WASDE Reportโ€”Traders expect a notable cut to corn yield/production and a smaller trim to soybeans, with US corn stocks seen falling sharply. Globally, the story looks similar: corn stocks down big, soybeans down modestly, and wheat ticking higher. ๐Ÿ”๐ŸŒ ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ Sovecon Slashes Russian Wheat Export Forecastโ€”The group now sees 2026/27 wheat exports at 41.4mmt (-7.2%) and total grain exports at 49.4mmt (-8.2%) as Black Sea AND Sea of Azov shipments get disrupted. Sovecon warns this could hit markets even harder than the 2022 crisis, since both major exporters are now blocked. โš ๏ธ๐Ÿšข ๐ŸŒ New Suppliers Step Up as Ukraine Strugglesโ€”Argentina's corn exports could hit a record 10mmt this Aug-Sept (vs. the usual 3mmt!), while the US is filling Europe's corn gap, supplying 40%+ of EU imports in July-August. Drought-hit EU corn imports are set to jump to 25mmt as Ukrainian supply lines stay squeezed. ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ ๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฝ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ Fresh Flash Sales Hit the Tapeโ€”USDA confirmed 182,880mt of corn sold to Mexico, plus 340,000mt of soybeans to China and 100,000mt to unknown destinations, all for the 2026/27 marketing year. Strong demand signals even as markets digest bearish price action elsewhere! ๐Ÿšข๐Ÿ’ฐ ๐Ÿ“Œ Don't forget to like, subscribe, and hit the bell for daily market updates! ๐Ÿ””

  8. Sep 9

    Was Pro Farmer WRONG? Everybody Else Has a Higher Corn Yield Estimate

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links โ€” Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. ๐ŸŒฝ StoneX Crop Estimates: StoneX trimmed its corn yield forecast to 182.9 bpa but raised production to 16.207 billion bushels on higher acreage. Soybean yield held at 53 bpa while production climbed to 4.547 billion bushelsโ€”all eyes now turn to Friday's USDA WASDE report. ๐Ÿ“Š ๐ŸŒพ Crop Conditions & Harvest: Corn conditions slipped slightly to 56% good-to-excellent as harvest kicked off at 5% complete nationally. ๐Ÿšœ Soybeans held steady at 58% g/e, spring wheat harvest raced to 86% done, and winter wheat planting is just getting started at 2%. ๐Ÿ“ˆ Wheat Futures Surge: Wheat futures jumped Tuesday as hopes for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal faded, with Chicago wheat up 13ยข to $7.47/bu and KC wheat up 17ยข to $8.19/bu. โš”๏ธ Corn slipped to $5.34/bu while soybeans gained to $13.16/bu ahead of Friday's big report. ๐Ÿค– AI on the Farm: About 17% of farmers worldwide are now using generative AI, making it one of ag's fastest-growing technologies. ๐Ÿง‘โ€๐ŸŒพ US farmers lead the charge, leaning on AI for everything from agronomic advice to daily decision-making amid rising costs and weather uncertainty. ๐Ÿšข Export Inspections: Corn export inspections blew past expectations at 1.7mmt, up 11% week-over-week and 15% year-over-year. ๐Ÿ“ฆ Soybean shipments rose 49% from the prior week to 422,016mt (though down YoY), while wheat shipments slipped to 342,733mt with no Chinese purchases recorded. ๐Ÿ”ถ Copper Hits Record Highs: LME copper broke above $14,600/mt this month, fueled by a rush of shipments into the US ahead of possible tariffs. โšก Long-term demand from AI data centers, EVs, and clean energy โ€” plus supply worries from mining disruptions โ€” keeps the bullish outlook intact.

See All (1.8K)

Hosts & Guests

4.9
out of 5
385 Ratings

About

Joe Vaclavik and Mackenzie Johnston discuss the grain markets, the business of farming, news related to agriculture, and a variety of other topics.

Information

  • Creator
    Joe Vaclavik
  • Years Active
    2020 - 2026
  • Episodes
    1.8K
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    ยฉ 2026 Grain Markets and Other Stuff
  • Show Website
    Grain Markets and Other Stuff

You Might Also Like