Grain Markets and Other Stuff

Joe Vaclavik

Joe Vaclavik and Mackenzie Johnston discuss the grain markets, the business of farming, news related to agriculture, and a variety of other topics.

  1. 1h ago

    Global Wheat SHORTAGE Incoming?? Prices Hit Multi-Year Highs

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌾 Wheat hits a three-year high as Black Sea exports nearly halt amid Russia-Ukraine strikes—Chicago wheat settled near $7.61/bu, KC wheat at $8.22/bu. It's on pace for the biggest monthly gain since Feb 2022, right when the war began. ⛽ Biofuels: The Trump admin is weighing nearly doubling small refinery exemptions (up to 1.8B gallons) to cut fuel prices before the midterms. Farm groups warn it could crush corn and soybean oil demand, though a 2027 biofuel quota bump may help offset it. ☔ Weather markets: Kalshi is partnering with The Weather Company to grow its weather prediction contracts, with volume up 500% YoY toward a $1.1B annualized pace. The bigger play may be farmers using these as a hedge against rainfall and temperature swings. 🇨🇳 China's crops: Extreme heat and flooding are hurting corn and soybean quality, likely boosting demand for imported corn and sorghum. Soybean imports probably won't get the same lift since China's domestic beans go to food, not feed. 🌵 Drought monitor: Corn Belt conditions held mostly steady, though Wisconsin and Minnesota worsened. Corn 27%, soybeans 28%, winter wheat 56%, spring wheat 80%, and cattle 58% are in some level of drought. 📉 Export sales: Corn sales crashed to a marketing-year low of just 31,200mt, down 87% week-over-week. Soybean sales dipped too, but wheat sales rose 2%, with Mexico leading purchases.

  2. 1d ago

    Putin's War Gamble | Trump Turns His Back on Farmers for Oil Refiners

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🇷🇺🌾 Russia-Ukraine Tensions Escalate—Peace talks have collapsed, and Russia is weighing intensified strikes on Kyiv and other Ukrainian infrastructure, with Black Sea grain shipments essentially halted amid attacks on ships and ports. Up to 70 vessels are stuck waiting near the Sulina Canal, and worsening weather could add to the delays. 📈🌽 Grains Rally on War Fears — Chicago wheat hit its daily limit Wednesday, settling near $7.48/bushel, while KC wheat, corn, and soybeans all posted strong gains. Reuters reports Ukraine's grain exports are down 60% this month vs. July, and Ukraine's farm ministry warns 2027 planted area could shrink without financial support. ⛽🚜 SRE Exemptions Could Balloon—The White House is pushing for more small refinery exemptions to ease fuel prices before the midterms, with industry sources now pegging the total as high as 1.2-1.8 billion RINs. The American Soybean Association warns this could wipe out 500M gallons of biodiesel/renewable diesel demand and cost farmers ~$1B. 🇨🇳🫘 China Buys More Soybeans—USDA confirmed another flash sale Wednesday, with US exporters selling 333,000 metric tons of soybeans to China for the 2026/2027 marketing year. Check out the export sales and China purchase tracker graphics below. 🏭📊 Ethanol Output Hits Seasonal High — Weekly ethanol production climbed to 1.11 million barrels/day, up 2.1% week-over-week, while stocks rose to a sixteen-week high of 25.21 million barrels. Margins across the Corn Belt weakened, ranging from 10 cents negative to 30 cents positive. 🥩🐄 Trump Eyes Beef Regulation Overhaul—On Glenn Beck's show, Trump floated cutting regulations in beef processing to help farmers, ranchers, and the economy, without offering specifics. Ground beef averaged $7.12/lb in July—up 9% year-over-year and 47% over five years—and Trump also signed a proclamation boosting reduced-tariff beef imports.

  3. 2d ago

    Corn EXPLODES to New Highs on US Crop Concerns - Should Supply Rallies Be Sold??

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 Corn futures rallied Tuesday, with Dec26 up 8¢ to close near $5.24/bu on shrinking yield expectations and worsening crop conditions. Soybeans climbed too — Nov26 gained almost 14¢ to settle around $12.38/bu on strong Chinese demand and crush margins, though traders are watching for possible Chinese retaliation over new US sanctions on Iran's trading partners. 🌾 Wheat also closed higher despite growing talk of a potential Ukraine-Russia diplomatic resolution that could ease Black Sea shipping disruptions. 🛢️ Diesel markets are bracing for more tightness as Russia weighs extending its export ban — possibly through October 1, or even year-end — in response to Ukraine's refinery strikes, which have hit 18 targets this month alone. Russia normally supplies about 10% of global diesel exports, so a longer ban could meaningfully squeeze prices, margins, and freight costs worldwide. 📦 Soybean exports: USDA flagged a flash sale Tuesday — 132,000mt (5 million bushels) sold to unknown destinations for 2026/2027 delivery. 📊 Check the new crop export sales graphic below for the full picture. 🤖 California ag labor: State lawmakers are weighing a late-session proposal to let autonomous farm equipment work alongside laborers in the same fields, drawing pushback from labor unions over safety and job concerns. Critics also say tucking the change into a budget trailer bill sidesteps normal legislative review, even though autonomous gear from companies like John Deere is already deployed elsewhere in the state. 🥩 Beef tariffs: Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins says the administration is still hashing out details on Trump's plan to pause elevated tariffs on up to 300,000mt of imported ground beef, sold at a reported 25% discount to market prices. 🐄 The idea has drawn sharp criticism from ranchers and lawmakers who say it undercuts domestic cattle producers, despite Trump's "America First" messaging.

  4. 3d ago

    Pioneer Finds HUGE Corn Yield Potential in Iowa - What Was All That Crop Tour Talk??

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 Corn Crop Conditions Slip — US corn ratings dropped to 57% good-to-excellent, down from 60% last week and below the 5-year average. North Dakota and Ohio led the declines with steep weekly drops. 📉 🌾 Iowa Yield Checks In — Pioneer's 4,000+ yield checks put Iowa corn at 226.5bpa, just shy of last year, while Pro Farmer's estimate came in notably lower at 193.98bpa. USDA's August number remains the highest of the bunch at 216bpa. 📊 💰 Corn Rallies, Soybeans Slide — Dec26 corn climbed to $5.16/bu on weak Crop Tour results and Brazil weather worries, while Nov26 beans dropped to $12.24 on a record-crop outlook. 🌱📈📉 🕊️ Black Sea Diplomacy Talk — Zelenskiy signaled Ukraine and Russia may pursue diplomatic efforts, even as strikes continue and Ukraine pushes allies for more air defense ahead of winter. ⚔️🤝 🇨🇳 New China Tariff on the Table — The US is weighing a 7.5% tariff on Chinese goods that would push total tariffs to ~20%, timed ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting next month. 🏭💵 🚢 Export Inspections Mixed — Corn shipments fell 33% week-over-week, soybean shipments jumped 43% with no China purchases recorded, and wheat shipments dropped 17%. 📦🌐 🐄 Mexican Cattle Ports Reopening — USDA reopened the Douglas, AZ port and plans two more reopenings in the coming months as Mexico battles screwworm cases. 🇲🇽🥩

  5. 4d ago

    Corn Yield Could Miss Trend by TEN Bushels per Acre says Crop Tour - Prices SURGE

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 Crop Tour Shocks the Corn Market — Pro Farmer's survey pegged national corn yield at just 173.2 bpa (15.34 bil bu), well under USDA's 180.7 bpa estimate, with Iowa fields hiding disappointing grain length despite looking strong from the road. Soybeans told the opposite story, with a record 53.3 bpa yield (4.57 bil bu) projected as conditions improved heading west. 📈 💹 Grains Rally on Bullish Tour Data — Corn closed up for a third straight session, with Dec26 gaining 5 cents to ~$5.09, while Nov26 soybeans rose 3 cents to ~$12.40 on tight supply fears and Chinese demand. ❌ Wheat slipped as traders eyed alternative suppliers amid ongoing Black Sea export disruptions. 🇨🇳 China Keeps Buying Beans — USDA flash sales showed 712,000mt of soybeans sold to China and another 720,000mt to unknown destinations, both for 2026/27 delivery. 🌽 Corn also saw 205,000mt sold to an unknown buyer for the new marketing year. 📊 Funds Pile Into Corn & Beans — The latest CoT report showed managed money adding 56k corn contracts (now net long 182k, the biggest since May) and 43k soybean contracts. 🌾 SRW wheat funds added a modest 8k contracts on the week. 🚢 Russia Scrambles to Support Farmers — With over 97% of Black Sea export capacity offline from ongoing strikes, Moscow is weighing loan extensions, subsidies, and government grain purchases to help exporters. 🌍 Russia and Ukraine together account for more than a quarter of global wheat exports, so the standstill carries major global weight. 🥩 Trump Opens the Door to Cheaper Beef Imports — The administration will allow 300,000mt of tariff-free ground beef imports over 90 days, with exporters agreeing to a 25% discount they claim will reach consumers. 🐄 Cattle groups are pushing back hard, though the volume is only ~2% of US consumption. 📋 Cattle on Feed: Mixed Signals — August 1 cattle on feed hit 11.12 mil head (+2% YoY), with July placements down 11% (a bullish surprise) but longer feeding times masking a shrinking cowherd. 🚪 The report may get overshadowed by Trump's beef tariff news and today's reopening of the border to Mexican cattle.

  6. Aug 21

    BIG Double-Tops on Corn Charts +  Crop Tour Update IA/MN

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Results — Iowa corn came in at 194 bpa (above the 3-yr average) while Minnesota hit 199 bpa, both showing solid potential despite some pollination and drought stress. Soybean pod counts were strong in both states, especially Minnesota's impressive 15% jump above its 3-yr average. 📈 📊 Grain Futures Update — Corn (Dec26) crept up to ~$5.04/bu on mixed Crop Tour results, while soybeans (Nov26) slipped slightly to ~$12.37/bu amid farmer selling vs. export demand. Wheat stayed mixed as buyers eye alternatives to Black Sea supply. 🌾 🚢 Export Sales Snapshot — Corn sales dipped last week (Japan the top buyer) but new-crop corn and soybean sales were strong, with soybeans hitting 1.7mmt in new-crop demand led by the Netherlands. Wheat sales beat expectations, up 54% week-over-week with Mexico leading purchases. 🌍 🚜 John Deere Optimism — Deere raised its profit forecast and shares jumped up to 10% on stronger 2027 equipment orders and normalizing used-equipment values. The recovery is still gradual, with regional sales down 15-20%, though Deere recovered $382M in tariff costs. 💰 🇧🇷 Brazil's Corn Deficit Widens — Booming ethanol demand is projected to push Brazil's corn deficit to 7.2mmt, up 167% from last season. Rising livestock feed use and slower production growth (due to tight credit) are compounding the squeeze. ⛽ 🏥 Farmer Health Insurance Strain — Expiring ACA subsidies have driven premiums sharply higher for many farm families, adding financial pressure on top of tough margins. In Wisconsin alone, 14% of farm families now have no coverage at all, with another 17% relying only on catastrophic plans. 😟

  7. Aug 20

    Corn/Soybean Prices SURGE + Consumer Inflation / Corn Production Cost SHOCK Chart

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌱 Soybeans led a broad grain rally Wednesday, with Nov26 jumping ~21¢ to settle near $12.37/bu on disappointing Crop Tour results. Corn and wheat joined the move higher too, with Dec26 corn topping $5.00/bu overnight for the first time since May 19th! 🌽 🚜 The Pro Farmer Crop Tour hit Illinois and western Iowa, finding IL corn yields down 7.7% YoY at 184.2 bpa and soybean pod counts below both last year and the 3-year average. Iowa fared better, with soybean estimates topping the 3-year average even as disease pressure showed up more than expected. 🔍 🏦 Fed July meeting minutes signaled another rate hike may still be needed if inflation doesn't cool toward the 2% target, even with annual inflation sitting at 3.4%. But softer economic data since then has cut September hike odds to just 36%, down from 70% at the end of July. 📉 ⛈️ Severe storms are lining up across the Corn Belt, with Thursday's threat stretching from Nebraska to Minnesota and expanding Friday into Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Indiana. More rounds are expected through the weekend, raising flash flooding and crop damage concerns on already-saturated fields. 🌩️ 🚢 Black Sea shipping disruptions could slash Ukraine's wheat exports to just 5-10mmt this season, down from ~14mmt last year, as over 97% of Azov/Black Sea export capacity is lost to ongoing attacks. Ukraine is leaning on rail, the Danube, and road routes, which could cover roughly half of normal export potential. 🌾 ⛽ US ethanol output slipped to 1.1mil bbl/day last week, down 2.5% from the prior week, while stocks climbed to a 15-week high of 25.12mil barrels. Corn Belt margins softened slightly but stayed positive, running 15-35 cents in the black. 💰

  8. Aug 19

    Another Day of Crop Tour Disappointment + Fuel/Diesel Update

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Results – Indiana corn came in at 183.5 bpa (down 5.3% YoY) while Nebraska corn was pegged at 163.6 bpa (down 8.9% YoY), with dryland fields dragging down state averages. 📉 Soybean pod counts were also lower in both states, and standing water in Indiana is raising disease pressure concerns. 🌱 Soybean & Corn Futures Update – Soybeans rallied for a third straight session, with Nov26 closing near $12.17/bu on yield worries, Chinese demand, and rising crude prices. 🌾 Corn slipped slightly, with Dec26 settling at $4.88/bu as traders digest crop tour data, while wheat stayed weak despite Black Sea turmoil. ⛽ Diesel Margins Hit Record Highs – US diesel refining margins topped $100/barrel for the first time ever as the US-Iran war disrupts Strait of Hormuz flows. 🔥 Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries are adding fuel to the fire, potentially meaning pricier heating costs this winter. 🌤️ Cooler, Wetter Pattern Incoming – A jet stream dip starting Thursday will bring cooler Canadian air into the Corn Belt, with highs in the 70s-80s and lows dipping into the 40s-50s. ☔ More rain is expected Friday into next week, which could relieve heat stress but worsen saturation in already-soggy fields. 🇨🇳 China Keeps Buying Soybeans – USDA confirmed another flash sale of 136,000mt to China for 2026/2027 delivery, pushing new crop purchases to 22.3% of the White House's 25mmt goal. ✅ Old crop purchases already blew past their target, hitting 104% of the outlined goal. 🚢 Black Sea Shipping Chaos Deepens—Five grain vessels were attacked near Novorossiysk and Tuapse this week as Russia-Ukraine strikes on ports continue to escalate. ⚠️ With Azov Sea shipments halted since July 10 and terminals suspending operations, roughly a quarter of global wheat exports are increasingly at risk.

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Joe Vaclavik and Mackenzie Johnston discuss the grain markets, the business of farming, news related to agriculture, and a variety of other topics.

Information

  • Creator
    Joe Vaclavik
  • Years Active
    2020 - 2026
  • Episodes
    1.8K
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © 2026 Grain Markets and Other Stuff
  • Show Website
    Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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