ING THINK aloud ING

In this week’s THINK aloud, we bring you the highlights of our Economics Live webinar, where we discussed the outlook for the global economy, monetary policy and financial markets with ING's James Knightley, Carsten Brzeski, James Smith and Francesco Pesole.

2023 was the hottest year on record. The Copernicus Climate Change Service says temperatures last year likely exceeded “those of any period in at least the last 100,000 years”. Yet the United Nations says global commitments to slash greenhouse gas emissions are still “falling far short of what is required”. Without urgent action, scientists say, our planet faces severe and irreversible climate disruption.

But there is some hope. And it comes from Artificial Intelligence, as ING's Ewa Manthey explains in this podcast.

Recent months have seen the US dollar on a powerful bull run. Propelled by strong economic growth and a hawkish Federal Reserve, which has signalled that interest rates will stay higher for longer, the dollar index has risen around 5% since July. But will this strong dollar theme continue in 2024? ING's Chris Turner has his doubts.

The price of oil surged more than 30% in the third quarter, driven by solid global demand, supply cuts from OPEC+ and additional voluntary cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia. But is the market starting to turn? And what does it all mean for growth, inflation and monetary policy? ING's Head of Commodities Strategy, Warren PattersonSenior Economist Bert Colijn says this has serious implications for growth, inflation and monetary policy in the eurozone.

As interest rates in the US, UK and Europe approach a peak, and economic growth shows further signs of faltering, the focus has firmly shifted to rate cuts. In this week's THINK aloud, a replay of ING's live central bank webinar, ING's James Knightley, Carsten Brzeski, and James Smith discuss their forecasts for monetary policy over the coming year while Chris Turner explains what it all means for markets. 

As the Western world struggles to tame high inflation, fears of persistent deflation are taking root in China. Prices at the factory gate have been dropping for months and in June, fell at the fastest pace in seven years. Consumer prices, meanwhile, have begun to flatline. The property market is stagnating and the economy overall has been losing momentum, fuelling speculation that China could be facing a prolonged period of decline similar to the so-called Lost Decade witnessed by Japan in the 1990s.

China, the world’s second biggest economy, may indeed be entering a new era, after many years of rapid growth. But ING’s Regional Head of Research in Asia, Rob Carnell, says comparisons to Japan are wide of the mark. In this podcast, he explains why.