The Fraser of Allander Institute Podcast

Fraser of Allander Institute

The latest on the Scottish and UK economy from a leading independent economic research institute based in the University of Strathclyde.

  1. 2d ago

    Study shows post-release supervision reduces reoffending in short and long run

    00:00:08 – 00:00:35 Introduction to podcast, guests, and research topic (community supervision & re-offending). 00:00:35 – 00:01:24 Overview of pressures on the criminal justice system: court backlogs and causes. 00:01:24 – 00:02:20 Prison overcrowding explained and current capacity issues. 00:02:20 – 00:03:14 Early release schemes and their limited long-term impact on prison population. 00:03:14 – 00:04:00 Future outlook and policy pressure (Institute for Government concerns). 00:03:36 – 00:04:27 New sentencing bill: shift toward community supervision and reduced prison time. 00:04:27 – 00:05:22 Lack of evidence on effectiveness of community supervision and motivation for study. 00:05:22 – 00:06:28 Data challenges and introduction to MoJ “Data First” initiative and linked datasets. 00:06:28 – 00:07:02 Scale and capability of the linked offender dataset. 00:07:02 – 00:08:25 Why older data is used and need for causal evidence (bias in simple comparisons). 00:08:25 – 00:10:20 Explanation of natural experiments vs randomized experiments. 00:10:20 – 00:11:13 Introduction to the 2015 Offender Rehabilitation Act (ORA). 00:11:13 – 00:13:02 Natural experiment setup: cutoff date creates comparable supervised vs unsupervised groups. 00:13:02 – 00:14:21 Method: comparing re-offending outcomes across groups using linked data. 00:14:21 – 00:15:46 What community supervision involves (probation, restrictions, rehabilitation focus). 00:16:02 – 00:17:09 Main findings: supervision reduces re-offending (short-term impact). 00:17:09 – 00:17:30 Long-term effects: persistent reduction in re-offending even after supervision ends. 00:17:30 – 00:18:44 Who benefits most: stronger effects for first-time prisoners. 00:18:44 – 00:19:27 Why effects fade over time and importance of supervision duration. 00:19:27 – 00:21:00 Effects for repeat/prolific offenders and role of recall to prison (incapacitation effect). 00:21:00 – 00:22:18 Behavioural mechanisms and role of recall threat. 00:22:18 – 00:23:34 Context: high baseline re-offending rates; supervision helps but isn’t a silver bullet. 00:23:34 – 00:25:37 Policy implications: supervision vs prison and impact on overcrowding. 00:25:37 – 00:26:05 Long-term benefits via preventing repeat offending among first-timers. 00:26:05 – 00:27:37 Where to find research outputs (ADR UK, blog, dashboard).

    29 min

  2. May 15

    2026 Scotland and Wales Election Analysis Ep 17: The aftermath of the elections

    In the final episode of our election analysis series, Mairi Spowage and João Sousa of the Fraser of Allander Institute and Ed Poole and Guto Ifan of the Wales Governance Centre come together to discuss what the results of the elections in Wales and Scotland mean for governing arrangements, and what the next steps are in the Senedd and Scottish Parliament sessions. **This work is supported by the Nuffield Foundation. The Nuffield Foundation is an independent charitable trust with a mission to advance social well-being. It funds and undertakes rigorous research, encourages innovation and supports the use of sound evidence to inform social and economic policy, and improve people’s lives. The Nuffield Foundation is the founder and co-funder of the Nuffield Council on Bioethics, the Ada Lovelace Institute and the Nuffield Family Justice Observatory. Find out more at: nuffieldfoundation.org. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Foundation.**

    29 min

  3. May 5

    2026 Scotland and Wales Election Analysis Ep 16: The fiscal outlook for Wales (Welsh episode)

    **Please note that this recording is in Welsh - check out our other podcast episodes and our websites for analysis in English.** This is a recording of the event held by the Wales Governance Centre in Bangor on 21 April, discussing the main talking points in the Senedd election. **This work is supported by the Nuffield Foundation. The Nuffield Foundation is an independent charitable trust with a mission to advance social well-being. It funds and undertakes rigorous research, encourages innovation and supports the use of sound evidence to inform social and economic policy, and improve people’s lives. The Nuffield Foundation is the founder and co-funder of the Nuffield Council on Bioethics, the Ada Lovelace Institute and the Nuffield Family Justice Observatory. Find out more at: nuffieldfoundation.org. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Foundation.**

    49 min

  4. May 5

    2026 Scotland and Wales Election Analysis Ep 15: The Welsh manifestos

    Timestamps: (0:05) Introductions (1:14) Income tax proposals (6:21) Land transaction tax (9:12) Spending proposals on childcare (12:36) Costings of proposals (18:00) Crown Estate devolution (21:43) Social security devolution

    27 min

  5. May 1

    2026 Scotland and Wales Election Analysis Ep 14: Round-up of the week

    Timestamps: (0:05) Introductions (1:18) Rows about costings publications in Wales (6:06) Costings publications in Scotland (9:56) The effect of List PR on the manifesto contents (14:30) Current vs capital block grants (16:52) What we can expect in the coming week

    22 min

  6. Apr 30

    2026 Scotland and Wales Election Analysis Ep 13: Health spending in Wales

    Timestamps: (0:06) Introductions (1:57) Health's place in the Welsh Government's budget (5:48) Performance of the Welsh NHS (10:51) Productivity challenges (15:31) The challenges of moving to a prevention model

    22 min

  7. Apr 27

    2026 Scotland and Wales Election Analysis Ep 12: The Scottish manifestos

    Timestamps: (0:05) Introductions (0:46) The level of detail of the manifestos (9:47) Costings in the manifestos (16:44) The SNP's food price cap (18:39) Reform's plan to bring in half a million people into the labour market

    22 min

  8. Apr 24

    2026 Scotland and Wales Election Analysis Ep 11: Round-up of the week

    Timestamps: (0:05) Introductions (1:20) Reflections from the event in Bangor (2:49) Reflections from the event in Edinburgh (5:31) Mutual investment model and proposals in Wales (8:09) Fiscal framework (13:27) Appetite for further devolution of income tax in Wales (17:19) Council tax revaluation

    21 min
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The latest on the Scottish and UK economy from a leading independent economic research institute based in the University of Strathclyde.

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