Hosts: Vladimir Bosanac, Co-Founder & Publisher of The Registry, and Tom Fischer, Principal and Director of Capital Markets at JB Matteson In this episode, Vlad and Tom trace how the West Coast's commercial real estate map is being redrawn — from a defense-tech boom reshaping Southern California, to the mounting political fight over AI data centers, to an industrial sector cooling off its pandemic-era peak, and the interest-rate and geopolitical crosscurrents pressuring multifamily. They close with a lighthearted look at one surprisingly recession-proof, AI-proof career. What they get into: Southern California's defense-tech surge and why the "script has flipped" from Silicon Valley — funding still flows from the north, but the hardware expertise, machine shops, skilled manufacturing labor, and legacy footprint (Northrop, Raytheon, Boeing, SpaceX, Anduril) are concentrated in the south. El Segundo, once a Standard Oil refinery town, now reportedly boasts the second-highest density of PhDs in California. Emerging occupiers like Flight Wave Aerospace, True Anomaly, Trino Manufacturing, Heart Aerospace, and Millennium Space Systems are taking 30,000–90,000 SF and poised to grow, with lessons from Ukraine and the Middle East driving demand for cheaper, AI-enabled, autonomous systems. The growing backlash against AI data centers, including New York Governor Hochul's one-year moratorium on hyperscaler builds, pauses in Seattle and Monterey Park, and local opposition in California. Tom and Vlad debate the "build vs. pause" framing, the geopolitical stakes of ceding the AI race to China, and practical middle-ground solutions — closed-loop water systems, bringing your own power, micro-nuclear, solar, and waste-heat reuse (à la Microsoft's Finland projects) — plus the regulatory bottlenecks (eight-year utility hookups, Three Mile Island's restart) standing in the way. The industrial market's reset: despite bearish headlines, national vacancy sits around 7% with positive net absorption (~62M SF in Q2, ~113–114M SF YTD per Cushman & Wakefield). The Inland Empire — the country's largest industrial market — has climbed to 8.8% vacancy with values off roughly 40% from their 2022 peak, while LA (4.2%) and Chicago (4.8%) hold firm. Construction has fallen ~30% off the ~1B SF boom peak to about 305M SF underway, as tariffs, oversupply, and higher cap rates push tenants toward renewals over expansion. The macroeconomic overlay: the unraveling Middle East MOU, oil and inflation risk, and a 10-year Treasury up ~15–20 bps across the curve — and what it means for multifamily transaction volume, rent growth (SF ~4.5% YoY per Yardi, San Jose ~1%, Sacramento ~0.5%), and JB Matteson's fundamentals-driven acquisition approach in a market where capital is on the sidelines. And to close, the microscope/telescope segment: why elevator mechanics in San Francisco pull $130K+ salaries with ironclad job security, aging century-old building stock, and a wry conversation about which jobs survive the rise of "physical AI" and robotics. Notable moment: "A decision deferred is a decision made — is not a good rule to live by." — on data center moratoriums. Chapters: (00:00) Intro — anchoring the Bay Area from San Jose and San Francisco(01:00) Defense tech's move to Southern California(13:10) Data centers, AI, and the moratorium debate(24:36) The industrial market reset(35:08) Macro drivers: interest rates, the Middle East, and multifamily(42:40) Microscope/Telescope: elevator mechanics and the AI-proof job
