Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts

The Hammer Betting Network

Welcome to Circles Off. This is your source for educational sports betting content powered by The Hammer Betting Network. This channel looks to provide you with the highest quality sports betting content across multiple divisions. On this feed, we house the Circles Off flagship podcast hosted by Rob Pizzola as well as the Circle Back show which covers the latest from Gambling Twitter. Follow this feed to keep up to date with all of the great content and go to The Hammer website for all of your sports betting content needs: https://thehammer.bet/

  1. The Most Interesting Sports Bettor You’ve Never Heard Of | Presented by ProphetX

    7h ago

    The Most Interesting Sports Bettor You’ve Never Heard Of | Presented by ProphetX

    Circles Off sits down with sharp bettor Thon Misser (@ThonMisser) for a deep dive into how he actually approaches modern betting markets, from live wagering to prediction markets and everything in between. Thon has quietly built a reputation for finding edges in places most bettors ignore — including niche sports like Japanese baseball, reality TV markets, and newer prediction market platforms. In this conversation with Rob Pizzola, he breaks down how he thinks about betting today, where his edge comes from, and why the betting landscape is changing faster than most people realize. We also get into his live betting process, how he structures his week across different sports and markets, and what it really takes to operate at a sharp level in today’s environment. Later in the episode, the conversation shifts into prediction markets, insider trading debates, and whether these new formats are going to coexist with or disrupt traditional sportsbooks. This is part of the Circles Off interview series presented by ProphetX, focused on sharp thinking, betting markets, prediction markets, and real process-driven discussion. If you’re interested in sports betting, prediction markets, live betting strategy, or how sharp bettors actually think, this episode delivers a rare inside look. 🟢 Check out ProphetX, the number 1 sports prediction market, and use code CIRCLESOFF when you sign up! 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 📊 Building in prediction markets? Get your trial API key for unified prediction market and sportsbook data: https://bit.ly/4blx5BR 🔵 Get Betstamp PRO 14 Days Free → http://bit.ly/427Zkhq LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow Thon - https://x.com/ThonMisser OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Circles Off interview with Rob Pizzola and Thon Misser 1:23 - The origins of Thon Misser 9:38 - Thon Misser's place in the current sports betting landscape 14:59 - Weekly betting habits 25:18 - Thon Misser's betting focuses 41:00 - Learning more about Thon Misser 45:21 - Live betting strategy 56:59 - The niche markets 1:03:20 - Prediction Markets and Insider Trading 1:29:23 - Rapid fire questions 1:37:31 - +EV and -EV Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #CirclesOff #SportsBetting #PredictionMarkets #ProphetX #RobPizzola #BettingStrategy #LiveBetting #SharpBettors #BettingPodcast #ThonMisser Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    1h 47m
  2. HUGE Game 7 Mistake • The $1.7M Parlay • UCL Drama | Circle Back | Presented by ProphetX

    2d ago

    HUGE Game 7 Mistake • The $1.7M Parlay • UCL Drama | Circle Back | Presented by ProphetX

    A betting influencer, Taylor Mathis, has sparked controversy after a Game 7 betting slip post showing one side of a wager while appearing to place another, leading to a wave of backlash and confusion across Gambling Twitter. The crew breaks down the fallout, the viral $1.7 million parlay sweat that divided the community, whether sportsbooks should ever void bets placed in error, and the growing debate over professional bettors versus casual gamblers. Plus, thoughts on the NBA Finals between the Spurs and Knicks, the Stanley Cup Final between the Golden Knights and Hurricanes, and whether penalty shootouts are still the right way to decide major soccer matches after the Champions League Final. Circle Back is part of The Hammer Betting Network and features Jacob Gramegna alongside Rob Pizzola, Geoff Fienberg, and Jason Cooper discussing the biggest stories in sports betting. From industry controversies and betting strategy debates to the latest headlines across sports, the crew gives their reactions to the topics everyone is talking about. 🟢 Check out ProphetX, the number 1 sports prediction market, and use code CIRCLESOFF when you sign up! 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 📊 Building in prediction markets? Get your trial API key for unified prediction market and sportsbook data: https://bit.ly/4blx5BR 🔵 Get Betstamp PRO 14 Days Free → http://bit.ly/427Zkhq LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow Jason - https://x.com/takesbyj 🔵 Follow Geoff - https://x.com/gfienberg12 OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Circle Back w/ Rob Pizzola, Jason Cooper, Geoff Fienberg and Jacob Gramegna 1:28 - Taylor Mathis' bet slip mistake blows up on Gambling Twitter 20:32 - Myles Garrett LIVE trade reaction 27:17 - Parlay Prince's $1.7 million parlay 34:33 - NBA Finals/Stanley Cup 47:51 - Should the Champions League be decided by penalties? 54:53 - "Newbies" ruined sports betting? 1:06:35 - "Professionals" ruined sports betting? 1:14:36 - Reading your comments 1:22:17 - How likely are they to... 1:27:36 - Chopping block Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    1h 50m
  3. SGA's Legal Warning • Voiding Complaints • Market Integrity | Circle Back

    6d ago

    SGA's Legal Warning • Voiding Complaints • Market Integrity | Circle Back

    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s camp sending a legal warning to Underdog over a foul-baiting board game has sparked a much larger conversation about where the line is between creative sports content and athlete representation rights. Jacob Gramegna, Chris Dierkes, Mike (Peanut Bettor), and Shipper break down what actually happened, why Underdog is refusing to back down, and what this says about how sports brands, players, and platforms are colliding in real time. The crew also dives into a major betting exchange controversy involving bot errors and inconsistent market voiding decisions. When obvious pricing mistakes happen, should exchanges always void the market to protect fairness, or should every bet stand once it’s matched? That debate leads into a broader discussion on market integrity, prediction markets, and whether the industry applies rules consistently or selectively depending on who benefits. 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 📊 Building in prediction markets? Get your trial API key for unified prediction market and sportsbook data: https://bit.ly/4blx5BR 🔵 Get Betstamp PRO 14 Days Free → http://bit.ly/427Zkhq LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Chris - https://x.com/flupnolide 🔵 Follow Mike - https://x.com/peanut_bettor 🔵 Follow Shipper - https://x.com/shipthejustice OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Peanut Bettor, Chris Dierkes and Shipper 2:08 - Shai Gilgeous-Alexander sends cease and desist letter to Underdog 12:10 - Caesars makes a "business decision" with winning bettor 22:21 - Betfair sparks huge debate after voiding wagers 33:01 - Are prediction market representatives hypocrites? 42:35 - Twitter has become a market integrity infrastructure 48:00 - What I love most about sports betting 52:57 - Foazn gets beaten on Jannik Sunner -10000 58:23 - Chopping Block Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    1h 11m
  4. The Biggest Mistake Bettors Make With Player Props

    May 27

    The Biggest Mistake Bettors Make With Player Props

    Most bettors are losing money on player props because they’re using the wrong inputs. If you’re looking at a player’s last 10, 15, or 20 games to project a prop, you’re not finding an edge — you’re creating a false one. In this video, Rob Pizzola breaks down one of the most common and costly mistakes in sports betting: treating hit rates like probabilities. It might look like math. It might feel like an edge. But it’s neither. Instead, Rob explains why hit rate thinking breaks down, starting with why endpoint selection completely distorts results and why context inside those games matters more than the results themselves. He also explains why alternates don’t fix a bad process and why backward-looking stats fail to project forward outcomes. From there, he introduces the framework that actually matters: volume, quality, and conversion. Using real NBA examples, Rob shows how two players with identical box score outputs can have completely different projections once you look under the surface, and why most bettors miss this entirely. Finally, he connects it back to how real betting markets work today, and why competing with serious groups requires more than basic trend-spotting or hit rate filtering. This is not about picks or parlays. It’s about understanding the process behind the bets. If you’re serious about improving how you bet player props, this is the framework you need to understand. 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 📊 Building in prediction markets? Get your trial API key for unified prediction market and sportsbook data: https://bit.ly/4blx5BR 🔵 Get Betstamp PRO 14 Days Free → http://bit.ly/427Zkhq LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    17 min
  5. DraftKings Co-Founder Calls Us Out • NASCAR Void Debate • Cormier Bet Dispute | Circle Back

    May 25

    DraftKings Co-Founder Calls Us Out • NASCAR Void Debate • Cormier Bet Dispute | Circle Back

    DraftKings co-founder responds directly to recent criticism and sparks a wider debate about prediction markets, how sportsbooks are evolving, and whether the industry is heading in the right direction or not. The crew breaks down that situation alongside a NASCAR betting controversy where a wager was graded as a loss instead of being voided, triggering backlash over how sportsbooks handle unexpected outcomes and settlement rules. Daniel Cormier also gets pulled into a separate betting dispute after questioning whether a bet should stand if the counterparty didn’t have the financial ability to pay. The crew is joined by Rob Pizzola, Kirk Evans, and Geoff Fienberg on this episode of Circle Back on Circles Off, part of The Hammer Betting Network. They also run through a weekend betting and sports recap including Victor Wembanyama’s dominance, discussions around Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the New York Knicks’ form, and Mitch Marner’s hot streak. Plus NBA opening tip-off betting angles, the Bet Pass schedule release, and a special announcement to close the show. 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 📊 Building in prediction markets? Get your trial API key for unified prediction market and sportsbook data: https://bit.ly/4blx5BR 🔵 Get Betstamp PRO 14 Days Free → http://bit.ly/427Zkhq LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow Kirk - https://x.com/KirkEvans0 🔵 Follow Geoff - https://x.com/gfienberg12 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Circle Back w/ Rob Pizzola, Kirk Evans, Geoff Fienberg and Jacob Gramegna 1:27 - Recapping the weekend of sports 29:05 - Bettors sound off on losing their wagers on Kyle Busch 38:21 - Matt Kalish's crash-out extends into another week 46:56 - Bet Bash schedule starting to be released 56:12 - "Data don't matter" 1:05:46 - Daniel Cormier needs help settling this debate 1:11:42 - Chopping block Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    1h 34m
  6. Gambling Twitter Explodes • DraftKings Co-Founder RANT • UFC Tax Push | Circle Back

    May 21

    Gambling Twitter Explodes • DraftKings Co-Founder RANT • UFC Tax Push | Circle Back

    DraftKings co-founder Matt Kalish set Gambling Twitter on fire after a viral rant about prediction markets, sharp bettors, retail gamblers, and the future of sports betting. Jacob Gramegna, Joey Knish, Storm Pig, and Porter of BA Analytics react to the entire situation, break down the backlash, and discuss what the conversation says about the current state of the gambling industry. The crew also dives into the viral “Sports betting will be dead in 5-10 years” take, whether traditional betting research still works, and why so many bettors feel the space is changing rapidly. The show also covers Dana White asking President Donald Trump to help reverse the 90 percent limit on gambling loss deductions for US taxpayers, why the gambling tax issue has become a major talking point across the industry, and plenty more betting discourse from the week. Circle Back LIVE airs every Thursday at 4 PM ET on Circles Off, part of The Hammer Betting Network, hosted by Jacob Gramegna with rotating guests from the sports betting and analytics space. 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 📊 Building in prediction markets? Get your trial API key for unified prediction market and sportsbook data: https://bit.ly/4blx5BR 🔵 Get Betstamp PRO 14 Days Free → http://bit.ly/427Zkhq LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Knish - https://x.com/JoeyKnish22 🔵 Follow Storm - https://x.com/storm_pig OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Joey Knish, Porter and Storm Pig 2:41 - Matt Kalish goes on a rant about prediction markets 13:57 - Actually being able to get down on Fanatics 18:58 - Insider trading on Survivor 26:24 - If you don't nearly go bust... 34:22 - NFL Survivor updates + GRP Wins new service 39:30 - Sports betting, 5-10 years from now 43:58 - Dana White's letter to Trump 52:40 - Chopping Block Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    1h 14m
  7. Rob Pizzola & Plus EV Analytics Answer Your Toughest Modeling Questions

    May 20

    Rob Pizzola & Plus EV Analytics Answer Your Toughest Modeling Questions

    In this Circles Off Q&A, Rob Pizzola is joined by Plus EV Analytics, Matt Buchalter, for a deep dive into sports betting modeling — how it actually works in practice, what separates good models from bad ones, and how sharp bettors think about building and evaluating their edge. This episode is built around 10 of the toughest modeling questions pulled directly from Circles Off content and community discussion. The conversation covers how to start a model from scratch, when a model is strong enough to bet real money, and how to deal with early season uncertainty like small samples, roster turnover, and regression questions. Rob and Matt also explore what matters more between getting the mean right or the distribution right, how to think about closing line value thresholds, and how to separate variance from a broken edge when results turn against you. They also get into Bayesian vs frequentist thinking, how professional bettors evaluate their models over time, and which inputs are often overrated or underrated when building a betting model. For anyone serious about sports betting models, market pricing, or long-term edge creation, this is a practical, sharp breakdown from two experienced voices in the space. Subscribe to Circles Off for more sharp betting conversations, modeling breakdowns, and market analysis. 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 📊 Building in prediction markets? Get your trial API key for unified prediction market and sportsbook data: https://bit.ly/4blx5BR 🔵 Get Betstamp PRO 14 Days Free → http://bit.ly/427Zkhq LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow Matt - https://x.com/PlusEVAnalytics OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Circles Off Q&A with Rob Pizzola and PlusEVAnalytics 1:19 - Question 1: Starting a model from scratch 4:01 - Question 2: When your model is good enough to trust 7:32 - Question 3: Most common mistake moddlers make 10:40 - Question 4: Bayesian or frequentist 15:40 - Question 5: Real winners vs. variance 19:18 - Question 6: How do you handle the early-season problems? 22:46 - Question 7: Mean vs. distribution 24:06 - Question 8: Handling the stuff that you cannot model 29:10 - Question 9: Handling a model that starts to lose 32:57 - Question 10: Feature that bettors overrate and underrate when building models Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    42 min
  8. We React to Guy Boston Sports’ Viral NBA Same Game Parlay Strategy

    May 13

    We React to Guy Boston Sports’ Viral NBA Same Game Parlay Strategy

    In this episode of Circles Off, Jacob Gramegna is joined by Rob Pizzola and Matt Buchalter as they react to a viral NBA Same Game Parlay strategy from Guy Boston Sports that has been circulating across YouTube. The group breaks down the ideas presented in the video titled “My Winning Same Game Parlay Strategy for the NBA,” which has gathered tens of thousands of views, and examines whether the logic actually holds up in real sports betting markets. Rob and Matt take a sharp, analytical look at the strategy, questioning the assumptions behind NBA same game parlays, discussing where these types of betting systems often go wrong, and highlighting why something that sounds good on paper doesn’t always translate into real edge or long-term profitability. Throughout the discussion, they evaluate the video from a sharp bettor’s perspective, separating entertainment-driven betting content from strategies that are actually useful for bettors trying to win consistently. This is part of the Circles Off reaction series, where we review popular sports betting content and determine whether the advice being shared is actionable or misleading. Topics include NBA betting, same game parlays, sports betting strategy, and critical breakdowns of betting advice circulating on YouTube and social media. 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 📊 Building in prediction markets? Get your trial API key for unified prediction market and sportsbook data: https://bit.ly/4blx5BR 🔵 Get Betstamp PRO 14 Days Free → http://bit.ly/427Zkhq LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow Matt - https://x.com/PlusEVAnalytics OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    50 min
4.8
out of 5
505 Ratings

About

Welcome to Circles Off. This is your source for educational sports betting content powered by The Hammer Betting Network. This channel looks to provide you with the highest quality sports betting content across multiple divisions. On this feed, we house the Circles Off flagship podcast hosted by Rob Pizzola as well as the Circle Back show which covers the latest from Gambling Twitter. Follow this feed to keep up to date with all of the great content and go to The Hammer website for all of your sports betting content needs: https://thehammer.bet/

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