Three Southern California industrial veterans — Jay Tanjuan of Scannell Properties, Sean Ward of CBRE, and host Justin Smith of Lee & Associates — sit down to break down where the Orange County industrial market actually sits in Q1 2026. Each has spent more than two decades in SoCal industrial, riding every cycle from the early 2000s through the COVID boom and the current reset. The conversation lands on a few specific takeaways. Tenants didn't leave OC — they renegotiated. Advanced manufacturing (defense, aerospace, AI, energy, robotics) is rapidly becoming the dominant demand story. Three site attributes now drive every meaningful lease: proximity to labor, power, and parking. Land values are down 60 to 70 percent from the 2022 peak, which means the underwriting math actually works for the first time in two years. And only 2.7% of OC's existing industrial inventory is 36' clear or better — making the right kind of building genuinely scarce. Plus: the port-volumes-vs-vacancy disconnect, what landlords now demand to underwrite startup credit, where institutional capital is finally returning, Scannell's 10,000-amp project in Garden Grove, and bold predictions for humanoid robots in warehouses by 2027 — or sooner. Key Takeaways Advanced manufacturing is now the dominant OC industrial demand story. Defense, aerospace, AI, energy, and robotics tenants are signing the biggest leases in the market. Velar Atomics — a small modular nuclear reactor company with fewer than 50 employees — just leased 500,000 SF. The Three Ps drive every advanced manufacturing site decision: Labor, Power, Parking. These tenants are paying north of $2 NNN to be in the right pocket of OC or LA — and they won't compromise on any of the three. Only 2.7% of Orange County industrial inventory is 36' clear or higher. Modern-spec product is genuinely scarce, and the buildings that fit what these tenants need are getting harder to find. Land values are down 60-70% from the 2022 peak. The underwriting math actually works for the first time in two years. New development sites are coming to market weekly as other groups exit projects. The five-year renewal wave is hitting now. Tenants who signed in 2020-2022 are deciding to grow, contract, or stay flat — and that decision will shape OC absorption over the next 18 months. Power is the new constraint. Scannell's Garden Grove project delivers with 10,000 amps of power — increasingly the only spec advanced manufacturing tenants will sign for. Jay Tanjuan's call: "Now's the time to take action." Lease rates have stabilized, basis is down, the right kind of building is scarce, and capital is finally starting to lean in. Chapters 00:41 Jay Tanjuan & Sean Ward: 20+ years in SoCal industrial 03:44 The market today vs. 12-18 months ago 04:13 Liberation Day 2025 and the slowdown 06:00 Underwriting: a flurry of new development deals 08:25 Land values down 60-70% from the 2022 peak 09:00 The dominant story: Advanced Manufacturing 09:46 Velar Atomics: 50 employees, 500,000 SF 12:17 The Three Ps — Labor, Power, Parking 13:00 Record port volumes, rising vacancy: the disconnect 16:00 The 3PL spot market and excess capacity 17:21 Right-sizing the 2020-2022 build wave 18:28 The five-year renewal wave hitting now 20:00 Only 2.7% of OC industrial is 36' clear or higher 21:54 COVID-era: rents up 5% a month 23:39 "COVID gave landlords a PhD in raising rent" 25:33 Talent, AI, and why people still want to be in OC 26:30 The capital intensity of advanced manufacturing tenants 27:22 Tracking defense contractor announcements as a leading indicator 29:15 Scannell's Garden Grove project: 10,000 amps of power 29:54 Underwriting defense contractor credit 32:54 The EV tenant deal: a year of prepaid rent 33:47 LP capital cautiousness on development 35:33 "We bottomed out" — Jay's call on OC lease rates 36:45 "Site has to have a story" — Jay's underwriting framework 40:37 Rent disparity by tenant type: $2+ NNN vs. market 42:32 Power generation creativity: modular nuclear, on-site generation 44:00 AI, robots, and the next cycle 45:10 Hot take: When does a humanoid robot show up in a warehouse? 47:30 From dots on tour-book maps to self-driving cars Episode Resources Connect with Jay Tanjuan, CCIM — Director of Development, Southern California, Scannell Properties https://www.linkedin.com/in/jaytanjuan/ https://www.linkedin.com/company/scannell-properties/ https://scannellproperties.com/ Connect with Sean Ward — Executive Vice President, CBRE | SoCal Industrial https://www.linkedin.com/in/sean-ward-ab616a8/ https://www.linkedin.com/company/cbre/ https://www.cbre.com/ Connect with Justin Smith, SIOR - Lee & Associates Irvine https://smithcre.com/ jbsmith@leeirvine.com https://www.linkedin.com/in/justinbsmith/ 949.400.4786