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  1. 3d ago

    Opening Bell - 03 / 06 / 2026

    Opening Bell - Morning Commentary Markets Navigate AI Optimism and Middle East Tensions, Global AI Rally Lifts Nifty IT Major U.S. stock indexes - the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq — notched record highs for a fifth consecutive session, marking the longest such streak since 2017, driven by sustained investor enthusiasm for artificial intelligence infrastructure and semiconductors. The S&P 500 edged up 0.13% to close at 7,609.78, extending its longest winning streak in over a year. The Nasdaq Composite advanced modestly in tandem, lifted by chipmaker outperformance and persistent appetite for AI-driven growth — even as geopolitical tensions exerted a countervailing drag. Alphabet fell nearly 4% after announcing plans to raise $80 billion through equity issuance to fund its AI buildout, which targets up to $190 billion in capital expenditures for 2026. The raise includes a $10 billion commitment from Berkshire Hathaway. Infrastructure optimism fueled broad gains across the semiconductor sector: Texas Instruments rose 4%, Broadcom rose 5.2%, Monolithic Power rose 5.36%, and Microchip rose 5.94%. Texas Instruments stands out as the year-to-date leader in the space — up 76% versus Nvidia's 19% — powered by a 90% year-over-year surge in data center revenue in Q1. Marvell Technology surged over 30% after Nvidia's CEO suggested the company could become the next trillion-dollar chipmaker. Hewlett Packard Enterprise gained 19% following strong earnings and an acceleration of its long-term financial targets, underpinned by robust demand for AI servers. U.S. Central Command confirmed Tuesday that it intercepted multiple Iranian ballistic missiles and drones and launched defensive strikes in response to what it described as attempted attacks — the latest exchange threatening an already fragile regional ceasefire. Bitcoin tumbled more than 5%, falling through the $70,000 and $68,000 support levels to its lowest price since April. The sell-off was triggered by Strategy Inc. (formerly MicroStrategy) disclosing an unusual bitcoin sale, which cascaded into broader weakness across digital assets, including Ethereum and Solana. Oil prices continued to climb as Iranian missile activity and contradictory signals from U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks sustained a geopolitical risk premium in energy markets. Uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz, compounded by declining U.S. crude inventories, reinforced supply-tightening concerns. Asia-Pacific markets opened broadly higher today, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 hitting a record high, as investors appeared to look past uncertainty over U.S.-Iran negotiations aimed at ending the Middle East conflict. The rupee began the month on a subdued note but weakened as the session progressed, pressured by rising crude oil prices, geopolitical concerns, and persistent foreign capital outflows. After opening lower, the currency continued to decline and settled near its intraday low, reflecting sustained dollar demand from importers. Nifty snapped its four-day losing streak, gaining 100 points to close at 23,483 yesterday. The Nifty IT index surged over 4%, marking its largest single-day rally of the year. Nifty briefly breached the swing low of 23,262 but managed to hold above the lower band of the April 8 upward gap at 23,153. The index also sustained above the key support level of 23,106. Yesterday's low of 23229 now serves as an important support. A decisive trend reversal would require a close above 23,800. Indian markets are poised to open subdued on higher crude oil prices.

    3 min

  2. May 29

    Opening Bell - 29 / 05 / 2026

    Opening Bell - Morning Commentary S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record closing highs on hopes of an extended U.S.- Iran ceasefire U.S. equities extended their rally on Thursday, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 closing at record highs for a third consecutive session. The gains were driven by improving geopolitical sentiment after reports indicated that the U.S. and Iran are close to finalizing a deal to temporarily halt their three-month conflict. The S&P 500 advanced 0.6%, marking its sixth straight day of gains, led by strength in healthcare and technology stocks. The Nasdaq 100 outperformed, rising 0.8%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 0.05%. Dell Technologies delivered strong earnings beat post-market, with shares surging over 20% in extended trading. The company also issued an upbeat outlook, highlighting robust demand for AI-driven data center infrastructure, particularly its Nvidia-powered servers. On the macro front, U.S. economic data presented a mixed picture. Inflation-adjusted consumer spending climbed 0.1% in April, in line with expectations. Core PCE prices in April rose 0.2% for the month and 3.3% for the year, against estimates of 0.3% and 3.3%, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. U.S. initial jobless claims increased by 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 215,000 for the week ending May 23, 2026, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. The US economy also grew at a slower-than-expected pace in the first quarter, with GDP expanding at an annual rate of 1.6%, short of economist forecasts for 2% growth and down from 2% in the prior quarter. Energy markets saw a significant shift as benchmark U.S. crude prices dropped from nearly $93 to approximately $88 per barrel. The drop reflects easing supply concerns amid progress in U.S.-Iran ceasefire negotiations, which could help stabilize global energy markets. Asian markets traded higher on Friday, tracking the positive global sentiment and optimism surrounding geopolitical developments. On the domestic front, Wipro has announced an expanded partnership with ServiceNow to implement and scale agentic AI workflows across core enterprise functions. The collaboration aims to reduce manual coordination, improve operational visibility, and accelerate execution at enterprise scale. Wipro ADR surged over 18% yesterday on Wall Street. Out of the Nifty pack, Asian Paints and IndiGo are scheduled to announce their quarterly and annual results today. Indian markets ended Wednesday on a muted note. The Nifty 50 slipped marginally by 6 points to close at 23,907, extending its losing streak to a second session. Broader markets continued to outperform, with midcap and smallcap indices posting gains, supported by positive market breadth. Indian markets are expected to open subdued as they are likely to absorb global cues of last two days. Technically, immediate support for the Nifty is seen at 23,800, aligned with the 20-day EMA and prior breakout zone, with a stronger base near 23,600. On the higher side, recent swing high of 24100 is likely to act as an immediate resistance.

    3 min

  3. May 27

    Opening Bell - 27 / 05 / 2026

    Opening Bell - Morning Commentary Semiconductors Surge, Yields Retreat The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at all-time highs on Tuesday, led by a historic surge in semiconductor stocks. Micron Technology jumped 19% on AI optimism, pushing its market capitalisation past $1 trillion. The Nasdaq 100 also hit a record, while the Dow Jones edged down roughly 0.2%. NVIDIA reported blockbuster quarterly earnings, with CEO Jensen Huang projecting the company could capture $35 billion for every $50 billion in AI infrastructure spending. Despite strong results, shares traded at $214.87 — below the 52-week high of $236.54 — with BofA noting the stock sits at just 17.5x 2027 earnings, well below its five-year average. Oil prices showed mixed movement as investors weighed U.S. strikes on Iranian vessels against positive rhetoric regarding potential peace negotiations. These geopolitical developments remain central to market sentiment as they directly impact global inflation pressures. U.S. Treasury yields retreated following the Memorial Day holiday as investors reacted to potential progress in negotiations to end the war with Iran. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped more than 8 basis points to settle at 4.489% as markets weighed the prospect of a deal that could reopen the critical Strait of Hormuz. Asia-Pacific markets rose on Wednesday, with Japan and South Korea’s benchmark indices hitting new highs as investors assessed recent U.S. military action in Iran, the fragile state of the Washington-Tehran ceasefire and optimism that a deal could still be reached. Shares of SK Hynix jumped as much as 11% on Wednesday, lifting the South Korean chipmaker’s market capitalisation above $1 trillion as investors continued to pile into artificial intelligence-linked semiconductor stocks. China’s industrial profits in April surged by 24.7% from a year earlier, according to official data released Wednesday, marking the fastest growth since November 2023. The increase accelerated from a 15.8% rise in March, Indian rupee snapped its three-day winning streak, with a sharp 45-paise depreciation. The local currency buckled under heavy pressure, driven by a weakening of the Asian currency basket, a shift toward global risk aversion, and a spike in crude oil prices following US military strikes. From Nifty, the earlier breakout zone of 23,800–23,850 is expected to act as immediate support, followed by 23,600. On the upside, 24,100 remains a key near-term resistance level. Indian markets are poised to open flat to mildly negative, tracking subdued global cues. The monthly expiry of Sensex derivatives is expected to drive volatility in today's session. With markets closed tomorrow for a public holiday, traders may look to reduce their positions ahead of the break.

    3 min

  4. May 26

    Opening Bell - 26 / 05 / 2026

    Opening Bell - Morning Commentary Deal Optimism Lifts Markets, but Fresh Strikes Cloud the Outlook Iran's top negotiator and foreign minister travelled to Doha for talks with Qatar's prime minister on a potential agreement to end the war, even as Washington and Tehran both played down hopes for an imminent breakthrough. Investor optimism over a U.S.-Iran peace deal was tempered by fresh U.S. strikes in the Middle East. U.S. Central Command said the strikes were intended to protect the troops from threats posed by Iranian forces, as President Trump continued pressing for a regional peace deal. Trump also urged Arab nations to sign the Abraham Accords, which would normalise relations with Israel. On Monday, stocks surged while the dollar and oil prices fell as optimism about a deal lifted risk appetite. Brent crude dropped to around $95 a barrel amid signs of a potential ceasefire and hopes of restored flows through the Strait of Hormuz, though some investors cautioned that a finalised agreement could take time. Foreign ministers from Australia, India, Japan, and the U.S. are set to meet in New Delhi to reinvigorate the Indo-Pacific grouping known as the Quad. The European Commission cut its 2026 Eurozone growth forecast to 0.9% from 1.2%, citing fallout from the Middle East conflict, while revising its inflation projection upward to 3.0% due to soaring energy costs. Indian equities staged a sharp recovery on May 25, with the Nifty surging over 300 points past the key 24,000 level, lifted by improved global risk appetite on reports of progress in U.S.-Iran peace talks. The rupee also rebounded, strengthening toward the month-end after touching a historic intraday low of 96.6 against the dollar. The currency has been under sustained pressure in 2026 — weighed down by elevated crude prices and foreign outflows — but the shift in Middle East diplomatic sentiment has offered meaningful relief. Nifty's decisive close above 23,800 marks a breakout from its consolidation range. The next resistance levels sit at 24,370 and 24,600, while 23,800 now flips to immediate support. Indian markets are set to open flat, with U.S. markets closed yesterday leaving little in the way of global cues. Price action over the next two sessions will largely be shaped by derivative expiries — NSE today and BSE tomorrow — before markets shut for a holiday on Thursday. Expect broad consolidation following yesterday's surge.

    3 min

  5. May 22

    Opening Bell - 22 / 05 / 2026

    Dow Scales New Heights Amid Crude Swings The Dow closed at a new record of 50285, gaining 0.6% after erasing early losses. This rally followed a sharp midday reversal in oil prices, with Brent crude falling over 2% as investors grew hopeful about progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations. Shares in the quantum computing sector soared after reports emerged of a $2 billion U.S. government funding plan to boost the industry. The Commerce Department announced $2 billion in funding allocated to nine quantum computing companies, including IBM, Rigetti, and GlobalFoundries, with the U.S. government taking equity stakes in return. The move signals a major federal commitment to next-generation computing infrastructure. NVIDIA shares declined nearly 2% despite the company reporting better-than-expected first-quarter results and issuing a rosy revenue outlook. Investors appeared cautious about the sustainability of its rapid growth amid intensifying competition in the AI chip market and a broader cooling of the recent artificial intelligence stock boom. Walmart reported impressive sales and profit growth, yet shares fell as investors fretted over the retailer's warning that rising fuel costs and a 3.8% inflation rate — outpacing wages for the first time — could pressure price-conscious consumers. The ongoing Iran conflict's impact on energy and supply chain costs added to the cautious outlook. Yields on the 10-year Treasury note slipped to 4.56% on Thursday, pulling back from recent highs that reached their most elevated levels since early 2025. The decline in yields was closely linked to the retreat in oil prices, providing relief to smaller companies in the Russell 2000, which outpaced major indexes with a 0.9% gain. Oil prices resumed their rally after declining for three straight sessions as investors remained sceptical about a breakthrough in US-Iran peace talks, with Iran's Supreme Leader earlier forbidding uranium removal. While statements from the U.S. had signalled the peace deal was imminent, the Iranian leadership’s reported stance of keeping enriched uranium within their country has raised worries of an extended conflict, keeping oil supplies disrupted for longer. Asia-Pacific markets opened higher Friday as investors assessed U.S.-Iran diplomatic efforts at reaching a peace deal in the Middle East. Over the last six trading sessions, Nifty has slipped into an alternating pattern of one session of gains followed by one of losses. Nifty opened 171 points higher on the back of strong global cues, touched its intraday peak of 23859 within the first few minutes, but failed to sustain momentum and reversed sharply. It declined more than 260 points from the high and eventually closed at 23654, down 4 points yesterday. Immediate support is now seen near 23,400. On the upside, a decisive close above 23,800 could trigger a pullback towards 24016. Indian markets are poised to open mildly higher on conducive global cues.

    3 min

  6. May 21

    Opening Bell - 21 / 05 / 2026

    Opening Bell - Morning Commentary Markets rally on Diplomatic Progress and Nvidia Beat Major U.S. stock indexes surged on Wednesday, snapping a three-day losing streak as the Dow Jones reclaimed the 50,000 mark. This rebound was driven by a cooling in 10-year Treasury yields and a sharp decline in oil prices following reports of progress in diplomatic negotiations regarding Middle East conflicts. AI industry leader Nvidia reported first-quarter results that surpassed analyst expectations for both revenue and profit. Despite raising its dividend and providing a positive sales forecast. The company also announced an $80 billion share buyback, though shares slipped slightly in after-hours trading as investors weighed the results against extremely high market expectations. Crude Oil plunged more than 5% yesterday on optimism over a potential US-Iran agreement. President Trump stated the US is in the "final stages" of negotiations with Iran, stoking hopes for a near-term reopening of energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, though the US military also boarded an Iranian oil tanker suspected of breaching the blockade. Federal Reserve minutes revealed that an increasing number of policymakers are open to a rate hike, as inflation concerns have been exacerbated by the ongoing conflict in Iran. The 10-year US Treasury yield has surged to a 15-month high above 4.10%, and a survey shows fewer than 50% of economists now expect a rate cut this year, down from two-thirds just a month ago. European Union negotiators reached a preliminary agreement on Wednesday to eliminate certain tariffs on US imports as part of a broader trade arrangement, ahead of a looming US deadline to increase tariffs on automobiles. The development marks a positive step in transatlantic trade relations and contributed to broader market optimism in the session. South Korean stocks rose more than 6%, helping the broader MSCI Asia Pacific Index gain 1.2%. Shares of Samsung Electronics climbed as much as 7% after the company reached a last-minute agreement with its labour union to avoid a strike. The US Dollar Index traded softer near 99.1, as improving market sentiment around US-Iran diplomatic progress weighed on safe-haven demand. The rupee closed 29 paise weaker at 96.83 against the dollar, marking a fresh all-time low. The sharp rupee weakness likely reflects persistent FII outflows, elevated crude prices, and safe-haven demand for the dollar amid global risk-off sentiment. Nifty registered a smart intraday recovery of nearly 300 points from the morning low of 23,397, finally settling at 23,659, up 41 points. Despite negative cues, Nifty has managed to absorb supply at lower levels and is forming higher lows on a short-term time frame. The rebound was largely supported by buying interest in the oil and gas, financial, and automotive sectors, offsetting broader weakness seen in Asian markets. Support for the index now moves up to around 23,370. A close above the 23800 resistance could extend the pullback towards the next resistance placed near 24,030. Indian markets are set to open higher on conducive global cues.

    3 min

  7. May 19

    Opening Bell - 19/05/2026

    Dow Advances while Tech Retreats U.S. stock indexes saw divergent performances yesterday, as a rally in cyclical stocks buoyed the Dow while tech shares pressured other benchmarks. The Dow rose roughly 0.32% to close at 49686, but the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both logged back-to-back losses, sliding 0.07% and 0.51% respectively. Technology shares faced significant pressure, led by a sharp decline in semiconductor and memory stocks. Industry leaders like Seagate and Micron reported substantial losses after executives' comments suggested that memory chip capacity expansions would take considerable time, raising doubts about the industry's ability to meet surging AI-related demand. Alphabet stock rallied 2.27%, touching a new 52-week high of $406. The move came as investors positioned ahead of anticipated catalysts, with Berkshire Hathaway also reportedly increasing its stake in the company. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remained elevated near 4.6% as investors balanced easing bond-market volatility with persistent concerns regarding oil-driven inflation. While yields pulled back slightly from session highs, they remain at their highest levels since early 2025, reflecting a market that is increasingly pricing in a 'higher-for-longer' interest rate environment through the end of 2026. Crude prices cooled off a little after President Trump announced he had called off a planned strike on Iran, following appeals from Persian Gulf allies. Trump added that 'serious negotiations are now taking place,' spurring optimism that energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz could eventually be restored. The US Dollar Index slipped toward the 99.10 region as traders digested fresh geopolitical headlines surrounding US-Iran negotiations and an upcoming leadership transition at the Federal Reserve. The Indian rupee reached a fresh all-time low of approximately 96.36 against the US dollar, making it one of the worst-performing currencies in Asia for the year. This depreciation is primarily attributed to rising US Treasury yields and elevated crude oil prices, which have exacerbated concerns over India's balance of payments and imported inflation. Petrol and diesel prices were increased by 90 paise per litre, the second increase in less than a week. Nifty defended its swing low support at 23262 yesterday, keeping the near-term bullish outlook intact. With three out of the last four sessions closing in the green, there are early signs of buying interest emerging at lower levels. Indian markets are poised to open flat to negative amid mixed global cues. The 23,800 level remains a critical resistance, and a decisive breakout above it will be essential for bulls to regain momentum.

    3 min

  8. May 18

    Opening Bell - 18/05/2026

    Global Markets Retreat As Inflation Pressures Resurface U.S. equities endured a volatile last week. AI-driven optimism lifted the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to fresh record highs early on, but a barrage of hot inflation data and escalating geopolitical anxiety triggered a sharp global sell-off on Friday, erasing nearly all weekly gains. The week's defining catalyst was a troubling inflation resurgence. April CPI climbed 0.6% month-over-month, lifting the annual rate to 3.8% — the highest since May 2023. More alarming was the PPI print: wholesale prices surged 1.4% in April, the largest monthly gain since March 2022, pushing annual producer inflation to 6.0% — a level unseen since December 2022. The bond sell-off accelerated sharply. The 10-year Treasury yield ended the week at 4.59%, up from below 4.00% as recently as late February. The 2-year yield settled at 4.08%, while the 30-year reached 5.12% — its highest level since 2007. Markets have abandoned hopes for near-term cuts. Rate futures now imply roughly a 50% probability of a quarter- or half-point hike by December, with a ~49% chance of rates holding and less than 1% pricing in a cut. The nearly complete US Q1 earnings season has been robust. S&P 500 companies are on pace for revenue growth of 11.4% — the strongest since Q2 2022 — and earnings growth of 27.7%, the best since Q4 2021. The Indian equity market also faced steep volatility during the last week, resuming its downward trajectory as global and domestic macro headwinds dented investor sentiment. The primary market trigger was a sharp escalation in US-Iran hostilities, which drove Brent crude prices past the $100 per barrel mark. For import-dependent India, surging oil prices reignited structural inflation fears. This macro strain immediately hit the currency market, forcing the Indian Rupee to a fresh historic low of over Rs 96 against the US dollar. A hotter-than-expected US inflation print (both CPI and PPI) fueled global anxieties that the Federal Reserve would hold interest rates higher for longer, triggering a global risk-off environment that hit emerging markets hard. The Sensex settled 2.7% down while the Nifty shed 2.2% last week. The BSE 150 Mid-Cap index declined 2.65% and the BSE 250 Small-Cap dropped 3.81%. Nifty is consolidating in a broad range between 23850 to 23250 range. A decisive breakout above 23850 level is needed to revive bullish momentum in the market. On the downside, the swing low of 23,262 continues to act as support for the index. Indian markets are poised to open 100 points lower from Friday's close near 23550 levels.

    3 min
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Stay updated with the latest happenings in the world of stock markets with our expert analysts

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    HDFC Securities
  • Years Active
    2021 - 2026
  • Episodes
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