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  1. 2d ago

    Opening Bell - 01 / 09 / 2026

    US Stocks Fall on Oil, India GDP Tops Forecasts US indices ended lower on Monday as a rise in crude oil prices and renewed tensions in the Middle East revived inflation and higher-for-longer rate concerns. The S&P 500 declined 0.33% to 7,686, while the Nasdaq Composite was relatively resilient, slipping 0.12% to 26370. Positive economic data have fuelled discussions about the Federal Reserve's next policy moves, stabilising technology and healthcare stocks. Despite the weak final session, all three major indices ended August higher, and the Dow recorded its fifth consecutive monthly gain. US government bond yields experienced notable volatility in response to fresh labour market and inflation indicators. Investors are demanding higher premiums as debate intensifies over whether the central bank will extend its pause or cut rates further later this year. Energy markets saw Brent and WTI crude oil balances near recent ranges amid offsetting macroeconomic forces. While production constraints from major oil-exporting nations provided a price floor, demand concerns from major industrial economies limited further upside. Data from the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation revealed that India's economy expanded by 7.8% during the April-June 2026 quarter. Driven largely by strong exports and investments, this performance surpassed consensus expectations and marked the twelfth consecutive quarter of upside growth surprises. Surplus liquidity in the Indian banking system surged to nearly Rs 5 lakh crore at the end of August, its highest level in over four months, boosted by month-end government spending and robust foreign currency deposits. Bank credit in India continued to expand at a robust pace in July, with overall bank credit rising 19.3% year-on-year, according to data released by the RBI. The acceleration was supported by strong lending growth across industry, services, agriculture and personal loans. The newly introduced Closing Auction Session system experienced its first significant test amid a scheduled index rebalancing yesterday. The high volume of concentrated portfolio adjustments by passive funds during the final trading window triggered wild price fluctuations across individual equities. The Indian rupee staged a stellar comeback, appreciating 22 paise to close at 95.16, its strongest level since August 5, overcoming an early dip triggered by Friday’s surge in the dollar index after hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium. This resilient recovery was heavily anchored by timely, suspected intervention by the Reserve Bank of India, alongside a surge in dollar flows linked to the index rebalancing and the FCNR(B) schemes. During yesterday's session, Nifty breached the prior swing-low support at 24,025 and the psychological 24,000 mark; however, the second-half recovery enabled the index to close above these crucial supports. In the short term, the 24,200–24,250 zone is likely to act as strong resistance, with multiple moving averages clustered there. On the lower side, a decisive break below 23,993 could extend losses toward the next support near 23,890. Indian equities are poised for a subdued opening amid negative global cues.

  2. Aug 28

    Opening Bell - 28 / 08 / 2026

    Nvidia Earnings Spark Broad Technology Rally, Attention now turns to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Nvidia posted second-quarter earnings that crushed expectations, with revenue up 106% year over year. The results reassured investors on the durability of the AI boom, sending the tech sector up 3.4% and lifting major indices. Nvidia rose more than 4% intraday to $227.98 on strong guidance, pushing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq higher. The Nasdaq Composite led Wall Street with a 1.57% gain, outpacing the S&P 500 and Dow. Shares slipped after-hours, however, on reports that Nvidia had paused cloud revenue-share deals — injecting a note of caution ahead of Jackson Hole. Corporate software earnings reinforced the tech rally. Salesforce jumped over 11% on raised guidance, and CrowdStrike surged on record annual recurring revenue driven by AI-linked security adoption. Attention now turns to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's address today at the Kansas City Fed's Jackson Hole symposium — his first as chair, and not tied to a policy meeting. Markets are looking for signals on the rate path amid PCE inflation at 3.7%. Chicago wheat futures hit their daily limit, closing near $7.60/bushel — about 30% above their late-June lows — as Black Sea supply concerns intensify. The Indian rupee opened flat post-Wednesday’s holiday, then came under pressure from month-end dollar demand, short-covering, and broader risk aversion. It ended 13 paise lower at 95.54. A modest rebound in the dollar index, following recent inflation data, further weighed on momentum. Nifty fell for the second consecutive session, dropping 116 points to close at 24,090. Markets fell on Thursday as expiry-led volatility and weak geopolitical sentiment triggered broad selling in heavyweights. A decisive break below the prior swing low of 24,025 would confirm a positional trend reversal. On the upside, the recent swing high of 24,378 is likely to act as immediate resistance. Indian equities are poised for a subdued opening amid the absence of decisive global cues to drive market direction.

  3. Aug 19

    Opening Bell - 19 / 08 / 2026

    Opening Bell - Morning Commentary Wall Street falls for third straight day as tech selloff deepens U.S. stocks extended losses for a third consecutive session, led lower by a sharp pullback in mega-cap technology and semiconductor names. The Nasdaq dropped 1.33%, the S&P 500 fell 0.69%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.22%, pulling all three benchmarks further from last week's record highs. Global bond rout pushes long-term yields to multidecade highs. Rising bond yields sapped risk appetite from the AI trade. Home Depot posted higher sales and reaffirmed its outlook even as consumers stuck to smaller maintenance projects. Meta, faces a landmark child-safety trial in California — a legal overhang even as its underlying growth metrics remain strong. New 50% U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods are set to take effect soon absent a last-minute deal between Trump and Canadian PM Carney. Government bond yields surged worldwide, with the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield touching an intraday high near 5.33%–5.34% — its highest since 2007. Widening fiscal deficits, inflation concerns, and heavy capex from debt-financed AI infrastructure buildouts are factors competing with sovereign borrowers for capital and reshaping equity valuations. Foreign holders, including those in the UK, China, and Japan, have been paring their Treasury holdings, compounding the sell-off. Crude climbs as Middle East tensions escalate. Oil extended its advance after the 60-day U.S.-Iran ceasefire expired without a new agreement and Iran shifted to what it called a "fully offensive" military posture, with fresh attacks reported in the Strait of Hormuz. Gold eased below $4,400 as higher U.S. yields and safe-haven dollar demand outweighed support from Middle East risk aversion. The rupee weakened by 8 paise to close at 95.68 per dollar. This was primarily driven by higher crude prices amid escalating tensions in West Asia and weakness in domestic equities. India's crude oil import bill rose 41% YoY to $13.7 billion in July, primarily due to higher crude prices amid the ongoing crisis in West Asia. Crude import volumes also increased 13% YoY to 21.4 million tonnes, while the Indian basket averaged $82.04 a barrel amid supply disruptions. Nifty fell for the sixth straight session yesterday, shedding 132 points (−0.54%) to close at 24,154, its lowest level since 28 July 2026. Technically, Nifty closed below an important cluster support around 24,200. The current fall of over 600 points from the recent peak has retraced more than 50% of the previous upward rally from 23,606 to 24,774 recorded between 24 July and 3 August 2026. Below 24200, the next key support is seen near 24,050, aligning with a retracement of the past rally and a prior gap zone. Resistance has shifted lower to the 24,300–24,350 band, with a stronger supply zone around 24,600. Indian equities are set for a muted start today, weighed down by subdued global cues.

  4. Aug 14

    Opening Bell - 14 / 08 / 2026

    Opening Bell - Morning Commentary S&P 500 closes at record high as inflation cools The S&P 500 rose 0.7% to a record intraday and closing high of 7798; the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.8%. The rally followed July PPI report, which showed wholesale inflation cooling to 4.7% YoY — below expectations — cutting odds of a September Fed rate hike to 35% from 40% and pulling the 10-year Treasury yield down 4bps to 4.639%. Brent oil fell over 2% to about $87, snapping a multi-day rally. A surprise 17.4 million-barrel U.S. inventory build, combined with 2026 demand-growth downgrades from OPEC and the IEA, outweighed supply risk from the Strait of Hormuz, prices extended losses even after the UAE reported Iran struck two oil vessels there, signaling demand concerns are currently dominating supply fears. SanDisk jumped nearly 14% on bullish fiscal 2028–2030 revenue guidance. In space stocks, fell 3.5% and Intuitive Machines slid about 1.6% on a revenue miss and wider-than-expected loss. Spot gold fell over 1% to near $4,354/oz, pulling back from a fresh two-month intraday high near $4,450. The DXY dollar index slipped below 100.00 as the cooler PPI print and higher jobless claims cut expectations for further Fed tightening, even as Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack reiterated her call for a rate hike. The Indian rupee depreciated steadily during yesterday's session amid strong dollar demand from importers. Sentiment was also weighed down by the previous day’s inflation reading, resulting in the rupee underperforming its Asian peers. The domestic currency closed 11 paise lower at 95.45 against the US dollar. Nifty continued to trade in a choppy range but managed to close at 24,395. This marks the second consecutive session in which the index has closed above these key moving averages and remains an encouraging sign for the bulls. The immediate support is placed at 24,265, followed by the psychologically important level of 24,000. On the upside, 24,630 and 24,750 remain the key resistance zones to watch. Sustained trading above 24,265 could keep the short-term bias positive, while a decisive close below 24200 would weaken the setup. Indian equities are set for a mildly negative note on lack of strong global cues.

  5. Aug 13

    Opening Bell - 13 / 08 / 2026

    Tame US CPI eases rate-hike fears, lifts risk appetite US headline CPI rose 3.4% YoY in July, matching consensus, cooling from June's 3.5%. Core CPI held at 2.5% YoY, also in line with forecasts. The soft print led markets to pare back bets on an aggressive Fed move at the September meeting, with gold rallying above $4,400 — a two-month high — on rising odds that the Fed holds rates steady. The dollar firmed into the release. The Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 rose 0.54% and 0.26%, respectively, recovering from earlier losses on strong results from AI infrastructure and cloud names. Super Micro Computer surged over 19%, while Dell, Teradyne, Seagate, and Arista Networks each gained more than 6%, extending the AI-hardware rally. Bloom Energy rose 13% after Nebius picked its fuel cells for a 300 MW AI data center, with Q2 revenue up 165% YoY to $1.07 billion. India's CPI rose 4.45% YoY in July (vs. 4.38% in June), close to the 4.4% estimate. The FY27E inflation forecast is retained at 4.9% YoY, with a pickup to 5.0–5.8% expected in H2FY27E on adverse base effects, El Niño risk, and supply-chain pressures. With inflation contained, the RBI is expected to stay on hold through CY26E, with a possible 25 bps hike in Q1CY27E — the Fed's path remains the key swing factor. Brent Crude oil settled near $88/bbl as markets stayed sceptical of a quick resolution to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, with US-Iran tensions keeping risk premiums elevated. The rupee snapped a two-day losing streak yesterday, appreciating 10 paise to close at 95.33 as cooling crude prices offered relief after the recent rally. Likely central bank interventions and dollar inflows into debt and primary markets also supported the currency. Nifty managed to reclaim intraday losses and close above these key moving averages, which is an encouraging sign for the bulls. Even after falling over 500 points from its recent peak of 24,774, Nifty remains above its key near-term averages, keeping the broader undertone bullish. A low of 24,265 now will act as immediate support, followed by the psychologically important level of 24,000. On the upside, 24,630 and 24,750 are the key resistance zones to watch. Indian equities are set for a mildly negative note on yesterday's CAS adjustments and mixed global cues.

  6. Aug 12

    Opening Bell - 12 / 08 / 2026

    Wall Street edges lower ahead of critical inflation data U.S. benchmarks closed lower for a second straight session Tuesday as investors turned cautious ahead of the July CPI report. The S&P 500 fell 0.3%, the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.6% on weakness in large-cap tech, and the Dow lost 0.3%. Markets awaited the inflation print, expected to show 0.1% m/m headline growth and a 3.4% annual pace. Alphabet shares fell 3.8%, their fourth decline in five sessions, as investors reacted to the company's reshuffling of its internal AI units. Intel priced a public offering of 210.5 million shares at $95 apiece, upsizing the deal from $15 billion to $20 billion. The offering, set to today — one of the largest capital raises in the chip sector this year. Oil extended its volatile run amid stalled talks over reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Brent has surged to nearly $90. Iran maintained the strait would stay closed until its demands are met, even as a senior Pakistani minister said Tuesday the U.S. and Iran were nearing "some sort of arrangement" — a rare note of optimism amid otherwise hardening rhetoric on both sides. Energy stocks gained on the rally, while refining margins spiked, pointing to a tightening downstream market. The Indian rupee weakened for the second consecutive session yesterday, depreciating by 14 paise to close near 95.44. The decline was driven by weakness across Asian currencies and rising crude oil prices. Heightened risk aversion amid geopolitical uncertainty continued to exert pressure on the domestic currency. However, the rupee’s decline remained relatively contained despite the surge in oil prices, supported by intervention from the central bank. Fitch Ratings affirmed India’s sovereign rating at BBB-, the lowest investment-grade level, while retaining a stable outlook. The agency cited robust growth prospects and stable external financing conditions, but flagged elevated government debt, weak structural metrics and potential fiscal spending pressures amid rising youth unemployment. The central government’s net direct tax collection rose 23% YoY to ₹8.11 trillion as of August 10, supported by strong growth in non-corporate tax and STT receipts. The collection represents nearly one-third of the FY27 target of ₹26.97 trillion, despite a slower rise in refunds. The Nifty remained under pressure throughout the session yesterday due to a sharp rise in crude oil prices on geopolitical concerns. Having declined more than 300 points from its recent peak of 24,774, the Nifty has moved closer to its 200-day DEMA support at 24,384. A decisive close below this level could drag the index towards the next support at 24,000. On the upside, 24,630 and 24,750 are likely to act as key resistance levels. Indian equities are set for a mildly positive note on conducive Asian cues.

  7. Aug 11

    Opening Bell - 11 / 08 / 2026

    Wall Street Slips as Strait of Hormuz Tensions Resurface U.S. stocks pulled back from record highs Monday as renewed uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz reignited inflation fears ahead of this week's CPI report. The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite all closed modestly lower, snapping a two-week rally that had carried the S&P to a record close near 7,758. AI-related names came under pressure after reports that Nvidia is working with major private equity firms on a financing initiative to mobilise more than $500 billion in third-party capital for hyperscalers, frontier AI labs, and enterprises building out data centres and buying Nvidia hardware. Nvidia shares slipped about 3% on the news. By channelling institutional credit, insurance capital, and private funding into underwriting GPUs and data centres, the arrangement lets customers finance AI infrastructure without straining their own balance sheets. WTI and Brent crude climbed to $82 and $88 a barrel, respectively, after President Trump demanded compensation from Iran, dimming hopes of a near-term reopening. No agreement has materialised, and positions in Washington and Tehran have hardened. The rally has pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.71% and revived inflation concerns heading into Thursday's CPI print. Adding to the policy picture, a surprise 23,000-job contraction in July nonfarm payrolls has led traders to sharply pare bets on a September rate hike, with markets now leaning toward the Fed holding steady. Asian markets opened mixed today. Japanese markets are shut today for Mountain Day. Indian E-way bill generation continued to signal sustained economic activity, rising 5.98% YoY to 139.79 million in July 2026 from 131.91 million a year earlier — the second-highest monthly level on record, just below March 2026's peak of 140.60 million. Sequentially, generation rose 2.21% from 136.77 million in June, even as growth moderated to 12.4% in Q1FY27 from 15.7% in Q4FY26. The Nifty witnessed a volatile, range-bound session on Dalal Street, closing at 24,583, up 13 points in yesterday's session. It continues to oscillate between its 200-day SMA at 24,758 and 200-day EMA at 24,384. The primary trend remains bullish, with the index trading above its key near-term averages. A decisive break away from this range is likely to trigger a sharper directional move in the index. Indian equities are set for a muted start today, weighed down by subdued global cues, as the ongoing Q1 earnings season continues to steer both stock-specific and broader market sentiment.

  8. Aug 7

    Opening Bell - 07 / 08 / 2026

    Opening Bell - Morning Commentary Markets snap winning streak, focus turns to jobs report and Hormuz standoff Major U.S. indexes closed slightly lower Thursday, ending a multi-day winning streak as investors booked profits after recent record highs. The Dow fell 0.9%, weighed down by leadership changes and weak earnings at individual names; the S&P 500 slipped 0.2% for a second straight session, and the Nasdaq eased 0.1%. Investors weighed a heavy earnings slate — including Insulet's 20% plunge on cut guidance — against Middle East tensions and today's expected jobs report. European stocks bucked the trend, with the STOXX 600 hitting fresh records on strong earnings and optimism over a possible US-Iran deal. Tech sentiment cracked after memory-chip makers Western Digital and SanDisk issued forecasts that fell short of lofty AI-driven expectations. Western Digital slid more than 14% and SanDisk over 9% in premarket trading, dragging Nasdaq 100 futures lower and raising questions about whether momentum is cooling among former AI market leaders. Attention now shifts to Friday's July nonfarm payrolls report, expected to show a modest 83,000 gain with unemployment holding at 4.2%. Market players will watch wage growth and labour-force participation for further signals on labour-market health. Crudel Oil rallied sharply after Iran published a draft plan to bar U.S. and Israeli vessels from the Strait of Hormuz and impose steep fines on violators — reversing earlier-week optimism that had pushed Brent down toward $75 on hopes of an Iran-Oman deal to reopen the waterway. Brent jumped to $83 and WTI to near $78, a 3–4% surge. A broader U.S.-Iran agreement, which the Trump administration had signalled could be reached by Thursday, now looks unlikely to close soon. Indian government reaffirmed its commitment to tariff rationalisation. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said Customs duties on most products are likely to be reduced to single-digit levels by the FY28 Budget, adding that rates have already been rationalised for all but 13 items. The rupee was the laggard among Asian currencies, depreciating 10 paise to close at 95.22, pressured by a rebound in global commodity costs and persistent dollar demand from importers. It was a muted session on Dalal Street yesterday, with the Nifty closing at 24,636, up 11 points. Nifty’s volatility has contracted over the past three trading sessions, with the index forming lower highs and higher lows on a daily basis. The primary trend remains bullish as the index holds above all key moving averages. On the upside, 24,770 and 25,000 are likely to act as immediate resistance levels, while the 24,430–24,380 zone may provide support on declines. Indian markets are set to open marginally lower today on the back of higher crude oil prices.

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Stay updated with the latest happenings in the world of stock markets with our expert analysts

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    HDFC Securities
  • Years Active
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