Joe Lonsdale: American Optimist

Joe Lonsdale
  • 4.6 (163)
  • TECHNOLOGY

American Optimist, hosted by Joe Lonsdale: entrepreneur, investor, and founder of four multi-billion dollar companies and other mission-driven organizations. American Optimist is an alternative to the fear, cynicism, and zero-sum thinking in mainstream media. Learn from the innovators and leaders who are solving our nation’s most pressing challenges, and doing it in a way that will lift everyone up. Hope should dominate our discourse, and American Optimist will show you why. blog.joelonsdale.com

  1. 6D AGO

    Ep 147: Scott Wu & Russell Kaplan on the New Era of Software Abundance

    Scott Wu and Russell Kaplan, co-founders of Cognition, are leading one of the fastest-growing, talent-dense AI companies. Their mission: make expert software engineering ubiquitous. What does a world of software abundance look like? How is Cognition delivering massive productivity gains inside some of the largest companies and organizations? And can AI finally modernize the broken, $100 billion government IT systems? We discuss these and other timely topics with Scott and Russell. Scott was a three-time gold medalist at the International Olympiad in Informatics and world champion at age 17. After high school, we hired him at Addepar, where he became a top software engineer. Russell began his career as a machine learning engineer on Tesla’s Autopilot team before selling his video data company, Helia, to Scale AI. In 2023, Scott and Russell co-founded Cognition, and a year later, they shocked the technology world with the release of Devin, the first AI software agent. We begin our conversation by discussing the incredible collection of young talent at Cognition, and why the next generation has new advantages in the AI era. Next, we catch up on Cognition’s explosive growth: Devin usage in the first few months of 2026 already surpassed all of 2025. Scott reveals that Cognition engineers no longer write code and explains how they’re able to test and ship new products faster than ever before. Then, we dive into the new era of software abundance and what it means if everyone has access to high-quality engineering, from modernizing large legacy enterprises to supercharging small businesses. We also discuss Cognition’s recent foray into government services and its work to modernize complex outdated systems. Finally, we explore the talent flywheel that has drawn so many former founders to Cognition, and why Scott and Russell believe we’re moving from Minecraft “survival mode” to “creative mode” — where the only limit to building is imagination itself. 00:00 Episode intro 01:35 Why technical talent & execution matters in AI 06:10 Do young people have an edge in the AI era? 08:26 Cognition’s rapid growth 11:55 The new era of software abundance 14:30 Cognition engineers don’t type code anymore 19:20 “Never sleep while Devin is idling” 21:25 The case for AI disinflation 23:50 How Devin generates 12X productivity gains 28:25 Cognition for government / taking on complex, broken systems 36:40 The AI race / competition with Anthropic 39:00 Forward deployed engineers? 43:40 How fast are LLMs improving? 47:10 AI-led small business explosion This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.com

    53 min

  2. MAR 19

    Ep 146: Jake Paul & Geoff Woo on Building Anti Fund, the Future of the Creator Economy & How to Change the Culture

    Jake Paul is a social media influencer-turned-entrepreneur and boxer. He’s not only one of the most popular figures on the planet among Gen Z, but also an outspoken patriot, capitalist, and builder. Together, he and Geoff Woo founded Anti Fund and have backed OpenAI, Anduril, Ramp, among others. Why did Jake decide to speak out on politics? How do we win over the next generation? And how is AI changing the culture, from new social media platforms to prediction markets and the revival of in-person events? We recorded this conversation the day after Jake appeared with President Trump at a Kentucky rally. He explains why he’s speaking out on politics, even if it costs him financially, and why authenticity is key to cultural influence. Next, we explore the origins of Anti Fund, and how Jake and Geoff had the conviction to back Anduril before defense tech was in vogue. They also invested in OpenAI and were instrumental in rolling out Sora; learn about the strategy behind the launch and the challenges around AI slop and identity authentication. Additionally, Jake is the co-founder of Betr, and we discuss its recent partnership with Polymarket, what’s next for prediction markets, and how to build guardrails for customers. Finally, we explore Jake’s success in pioneering the creator economy and building consumer brands. In the 1960s and 70s, most kids aspired to become astronauts. Today, they want to be content creators, in part because of Jake’s influence. We conclude with Jake’s advice for young people in the AI era, and how we can persuade the next generation to love their country and embrace a builder mindset. 00:00 Episode intro 02:20 On stage with President Trump 06:00 Attention is the most valuable currency 08:00 The origins of Anti Fund and backing OpenAI, Anduril, Ramp, and others 09:10 Betr + Polymarket and the future of prediction markets 14:58 Launching Sora with OpenAI 16:14 Are you worried about AI slop? 19:10 How AI is changing culture; revival of in-person events 21:20 Who should become a creator? 24:30 Fighters as cultural icons 31:30 How to win the culture This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.com

    36 min

  3. MAR 13

    Ep 145: SBA Administrator Kelly Loeffler on Exposing Billions in Fraud & What AI Means for Small Business

    Small Business Administrator Kelly Loeffler is playing a pivotal role in our nation on two fronts: supporting the next generation of small business owners, while exposing and combating billions of dollars in fraud. How is AI impacting small businesses? Could this be a golden age for Main Street America? What's the staggering scale of fraud she's uncovering? And how is she working with Palantir and other top talent to ensure it never happens again? We discuss these timely topics and more with Administrator Loeffler. Growing up on a farm in rural Illinois, Kelly raised cattle and was exposed to the challenges of small business early on. She became the first in her family to graduate college and built a distinguished career in financial services at Intercontinental Exchange. In 2018, she became the founding CEO and first employee of the fintech startup, Bakkt, which brought institutional infrastructure to crypto. Kelly was appointed to serve in the U.S. Senate in 2020 and later confirmed as Administrator of the Small Business Administration in February 2025. We begin our conversation with Kelly's entrepreneurial journey, before diving into her mission at the SBA. Her leadership comes at a pivotal juncture: a $10 trillion generational wealth transfer amid a technological revolution. As Baby Boomers retire and new AI tools emerge, Kelly believes young talent should think twice about traditional pathways and consider small business ownership instead. She lays out the administration's agenda, including expanding SBA loans for reindustrialization and bolstering the manufacturing jobs of the future. Next, we dive into her other core responsibility: exposing fraud. Learn how the SBA uncovered over $400 million of COVID-era fraud in Minnesota, $9 billion in California, and they're just getting started. She's also investigating 8(a) minority contracting — a program for disadvantaged communities hijacked by the Biden administration for race-based contracting and grift. The SBA is bringing in top talent and technology, including Palantir, to expose the fraud, revamp the programs, and protect taxpayers. 00:00 Episode intro 01:40 Farming to finance 04:46 Building Bakkt & institutional infrastructure for crypto 09:00 AI & the future of small business 13:58 How to supercharge manufacturing in America 16:15 Exposing billions in fraud 18:50 The scandal of minority contracting 20:25 Using Palantir to investigate fraud 27:15 The NGO grift scheme 29:50 Optimism for the future This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.com

    31 min

  4. MAR 3

    Ep 144: Jared Isaacman's Bold Vision for Moon Bases, Nuclear Power in Space, and Returning NASA to Greatness

    As a teenager, Jared Isaacman built a billion-dollar payments company. He then pursued aviation, acquiring the world's largest private air force and creating “Top Gun as a service,” before commanding the first all-civilian spaceflight. Now, he's taking on his greatest challenge: returning NASA to greatness. Can we beat China back to the Moon? Will we reach Mars within a decade? And how close are we to making nuclear propulsion, space colonies, and other sci-fi futures a reality? We discuss all this and more with NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman. We begin with his upbringing and the origins of Shift4 Payments, which now processes more than $200 billion annually. A prolific pilot, he went on to build Draken International and acquire over 100 fighter jets for adversary training — at one point, he owned the 12th largest air force in the world! Next, we dive into his experience as a commercial astronaut and why he sought the helm of NASA. Jared outlines his bold vision to reform NASA, starting with his announcement to increase the Artemis launch cadence and ensure a return to the Moon by 2028. We discuss the challenges of building a permanent Moon presence, and why nuclear power and propulsion in space is a NASA-unique mission that will attract top talent and help the agency achieve greatness again. Finally, we explore the growing space economy and exciting sci-fi realities we will experience in the years ahead. NASA is a storied American institution; we are fortunate to have a talented leader like Jared who wants to see it not only thrive again, but reach even greater heights. 00:00 Episode intro 01:30 Top Gun as a service 07:40 Founding a billion-dollar payments company 09:30 Pioneering private spaceflight 12:00 What happened to NASA? 14:40 Getting back to the Moon by 2028 20:47 Jared announces new plans for Artemis 25:15 Future of the space economy 27:50 Nuclear power in space 29:00 Sci-fi futures becoming reality This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.com

    32 min

  5. FEB 27

    Ep 143: JD Ross on the New Invention Era & Building with AI in 2026

    JD Ross is one of my favorite entrepreneurs. I hired him out of college at Addepar where he quickly became Head of Product. He went on to co-found Opendoor with Keith Rabois and is now building WithCoverage — one of the fastest growing AI-first service companies. JD believes we're entering an "invention era" again. What are the new possibilities with AI? What does it mean for legacy software companies? And why is he especially excited for young talent entering the workforce today?We discuss all this and more, starting with JD's entrepreneurial journey, from founding a moving company in college (that still generates +$10M a year in sales!) to joining Addepar and later founding Opendoor. We discuss some of the breakthroughs and challenges at Opendoor, and why its meme stock moment is infusing new energy and ideas into the company. Next, we dive into WithCoverage and his mission to upend the insurance brokerage industry by combining new AI tools with human expertise — think Ramp for risk management. Initially backed by 8VC, WithCoverage already serves more than 700 enterprise customers and recently closed a $42 million round led by Sequoia and Khosla Ventures. Talented builders like JD are scaling and iterating on new products faster than anything we've seen before — learn what this means for the startup ecosystem, as well as existing SaaS companies looking over their shoulders. Finally, JD explains how AI is leveling the playing field and why he believes this is the best opportunity for new entrepreneurs in recent decades. 00:00 Episode intro 01:28 JD's entrepreneurial journey 05:18 Wins and challenges at Opendoor / meme stock moment 09:55 WithCoverage and upending insurance brokerage with AI 13:11 Mimetic frameworks for entrepreneurs 15:45 How AI is changing the way companies are built 20:21 The impact of AI on existing SaaS 26:50 How to stop AI spam and imposters 31:27 How should young people prepare for the AI era? 34:20 The new invention era / why AI levels the playing field This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.com

    36 min

  6. FEB 17

    Ep 142: Understanding the AI Wave with 8VC's Alex Kolicich & Jack Moshkovich

    Advances in AI are occurring at a pace we haven’t seen before in Silicon Valley. How do we know what’s real versus hype? What does it mean for large software incumbents? And how are the top investors and builders thinking about the new possibilities? This week, we talk with two of my partners at 8VC, Alex Kolicich and Jack Moshkovich, who are on the ground working with the leading AI talent to get their perspective on what’s really happening. Alex Kolicich is a Partner at 8VC, where he specializes in IT and Bio-IT investments. Prior, he was a Partner at Formation 8 and worked alongside Peter Thiel at Mithril Capital Management. Alex was also an engineer and early-product advisor at Clarium, Palantir, and Google. Jack Moshkovich began his career at 8VC and helps lead our investment practice alongside Alex out of San Francisco, where he focuses on enterprise software. We begin with Silicon Valley’s most recent technological wave: smart enterprise. In 2013, we published our smart enterprise thesis, predicting the B2B software explosion that drove tremendous value creation over the past decade. Now, we’re entering the next landmark shift: the AI wave. Learn why AI is fundamentally disruptive (you can find our thesis here), and the enormous leap from data retrieval to automated decision making and from linear to non-linear problem solving. Next, we dive into the six layers of the AI investment stack, and why we are focused on level five: the application layer. We dissect the tremendous opportunities for AI-native upstarts, as well as the challenges — and upside — for smart enterprise pioneers that can reorient around AI. Finally, we discuss some of the key questions in the years ahead: When and where will we see massive productivity gains in the economy? Will LLMs become commodities, or is each frontier model sufficiently differentiated? And are we entering a bubble, or is the AI wave just getting started? 00:00 Episode intro 01:40 Smart enterprise thesis 04:00 Did enterprise software dramatically boost productivity? 08:30 Understanding the AI wave 11:45 Are LLMs becoming commodities? 17:10 OpenAI vs Anthropic vs Meta vs Grok 20:30 Frontier models vs enterprise incumbents 25:20 What did Palantir get right? 32:30 AI case studies/new possibilities 43:00 The most surprising aspect of the AI wave 46:10 Are we entering a bubble? Or just getting started? 52:40 Biggest concern with AI 58:00 Biggest reason for optimism This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.com

    1h 1m

  7. FEB 4

    Ep 141: AI Hackers Are Here; Cybersecurity Legend Kevin Mandia Is Building the Answer

    When Kevin Mandia’s phone rings, it’s often a Fortune 500 CEO or government leader with a billion-dollar problem. How did he become the go-to expert in cybersecurity? What new threats from AI led him back into the arena? And what is he building to protect the good guys? Kevin began his career in the U.S. Air Force, defending the U.S. military from some of the earliest cyber attacks. He went on to found and lead Mandiant, scaling it into an industry leader which Google acquired in 2022 for over $5 billion. In 2013, he famously exposed China’s massive state-sponsored cyber espionage inside America. Kevin has also served on the National Security Telecommunications Advisory Committee (NSTAC) and the CISA Cybersecurity Advisory Committee. He recently launched Armadin to address new AI possibilities in the cyber domain. To begin, Kevin takes us behind the scenes of the early cyber skirmishes in the 1990s, and what it was like confronting some of the first cyber incursions from Russia and China, as well as the rise of criminal cyber enterprises. In the early 2000s, Kevin noticed glaring gaps in conventional antivirus approaches and launched Mandiant. Learn how he quickly became the first person that CEOs and governments would call if they’d been hacked. After scaling Mandiant and exiting to Google, Kevin is now back in the arena building cutting-edge solutions to new AI cyber threats. He explains the dramatic increase in the productivity and sophistication of AI agents, and why it’s upending how we build cyber defenses. Find out what he’s most worried about in 2026, and what steps governments and CEOs need to take to secure their networks and infrastructure. 0:00 Episode intro 01:30 Kevin's journey into cyber; early attacks from Russia & China 05:00 The evolution of cyber espionage and crime 08:00 Founding Mandiant; why Fortune 500 CEOs call Kevin 13:30 What's it like getting hacked by Russia? 21:30 AI hackers are here; Kevin's warning 27:00 Protecting critical infrastructure; harnessing AI for cyber defense 31:30 Engineers vs AI agents 36:40 Optimism for the future This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.com

    39 min

  8. JAN 26

    Ep 140: SEC Chairman Paul Atkins on Making IPOs Great Again, Crypto's Comeback & New Rules for Retail Investors

    America’s capital markets are the envy of the world, but in recent years, misguided policies have driven innovation offshore and stifled the number of companies going public. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins is reversing course. What’s his plan to make IPOs great again? What will it take for America to become the crypto capital of the world? And does he think we should expand access to private markets for retail investors? This week, we’re honored to feature a conversation with Paul Atkins, Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission. He also served as a commissioner at the SEC from 2002 to 2008, and worked on the staff of two SEC chairmen from 1990 to 1994. Prior to returning to the SEC in 2025, Chairman Atkins was the founder and chief executive of Patomak Global Partners, a financial services firm he founded in 2009. We begin with Chairman Atkins’ visit to Texas, the significance of Texas’ new business courts, and the importance of innovation in our financial markets. Whereas his predecessor, Gary Gensler, took an adversarial, regulation-by-enforcement approach, he’s embracing new technologies and regulatory clarity. In this vein, the Chairman lays out his strategy for making IPOs great again. Learn why the number of public companies has dropped by nearly half since 2007, and how Chairman Atkins is reforming the rules around litigation and corporate governance to deter activists from harassing America’s builders. We also discuss President Trump’s vision for making America the crypto capital of the world, and what it looks like to provide clear guidelines that promote innovation and protect investors. Finally, we explore the steps he’s taking to enable retail investors to access private markets and other alternative assets. 0:00 Episode intro 1:35 Texas' new business courts / evolution of U.S. markets 7:20 The SEC's new approach to crypto 16:00 Making IPOs and public companies great again 25:00 Weaponization of shareholder proposals and ESG 32:10 National security concerns / China's bad actions 36:30 New rules for retail investors & private companies 44:35 Optimism for America's future This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.com

    46 min
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4.6
out of 5
163 Ratings

About

American Optimist, hosted by Joe Lonsdale: entrepreneur, investor, and founder of four multi-billion dollar companies and other mission-driven organizations. American Optimist is an alternative to the fear, cynicism, and zero-sum thinking in mainstream media. Learn from the innovators and leaders who are solving our nation’s most pressing challenges, and doing it in a way that will lift everyone up. Hope should dominate our discourse, and American Optimist will show you why. blog.joelonsdale.com

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