Get Smart Politics Podcast

Eric Bohl
  • 5.0 (1)
  • Politics
  • Updated Weekly

Expert political insight and analysis in an engaging format. getsmartpolitics.substack.com

Episodes

  1. 08/15/2022

    Political Cheat Sheet: FBI Search Scrambles Everything

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    16 min

  2. 08/08/2022

    Political Cheat Sheet: Primary results are shifting the conversation

    Good Monday morning! My mission is to bring unbiased political information and analysis to Americans in a way that is interesting and engaging. Thank you for your support! This week’s poll: Last week’s poll was Should Joe Biden run for President in 2024? I’m also including the results from two weeks ago, when I asked Should Donald Trump run for President in 2024? Looks like you all are interested in some new blood on both sides! The Political Cheat Sheet comes out Monday mornings. I start with a high-level overview of the info in graphical form. If you don’t have time for anything else, just take a quick look every week. Save the image to your phone's photo library for quick reference until next Monday! If you want more detail, scroll past the image. What's happening this week This is your Political Cheat Sheet for the week starting Monday, August 8, 2022. Today is 92 days until the November midterm elections (about 13 weeks). We are 820 days from the 2024 Presidential election (about 27 months). Top Storylines There is still such a thing as “too far” in politics * For the past few years, it has felt like there was no limit to how extreme politicians could get without paying a penalty at the ballot box. Candidates of both parties have said and done all manner of outrageous or over-the-line things, yet it seemed to only make them more popular with the base. Last week, in my home state of Missouri, this theory was put to a major test. Fortunately, the outrageous candidate lost. * Former Governor Eric Greitens, who resigned after not even a year and a half in office, was a leading candidate for the GOP nomination for U.S. Senate. He created numerous scandals and outrages, including allegedly tying up his mistress in his basement, stripping her naked, spitting in her mouth, and photographing her for blackmail. In the ensuing divorce, his wife alleged he had physically and verbally abused her and their sons, even hitting their three-year-old son and knocking out a tooth. He turned his MAGA up to 11 for his Senatorial comeback bid, issuing an online ad in which he and a heavily-armed SWAT team executed a no-knock raid on a suburban house in order to hunt “RINOs,” or Republicans In Name Only. Despite all this, he led the field in most polls until only a month or so ago. * The “RINO Hunter” ad seemed to backfire on Greitens, turning off the same undecided voters he needed to achieve victory. Several large ad buys carpeted the airwaves in July to highlight his alleged abuse of his wife and children, which also had a clear effect on the polls. In the end, despite a half-endorsement from former President Donald Trump, he only earned 18.9% of the vote. Greitens finished almost 27 points behind the winner, State Attorney General Eric Schmitt, and only won three of the state’s 114 counties. * Why this matters: Politics is still brutal and divisive right now. Candidates continue to go to the extremes in search of attention and votes. But I think we have seen that there is an edge. Candidates can go too far. Between Greitens and Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R-NC), who was sent packing after numerous outrages and poor choices, candidates who are too extreme actually can lose support and votes rather than rack up more and more support. There’s a tipping point out there - the problem is that it’s WAY out there. * Bottom line: There is reason to hope that our country does still have some sense of decency… you just have to dig pretty deep to find it right now. Kansas abortion amendment changes electoral calculus * This week we saw the first hint of what could become another major factor in the left’s favor this November. Voters in Kansas resoundingly defeated an amendment to the state constitution that would have allowed the legislature to restrict or outlaw abortion. The pro-choice side won 59-41 in one of the reddest of red states after both sides spent millions of dollars educating voters about the issue. Turnout was more than double that of some recent primaries, with many voters unaffiliated with either party showing up to vote solely on the amendment. * Even pro-choice activists were surprised by the magnitude of both the electoral turnout and the win. As shown in the fascinating graphic by The Washington Post shown below, every single county voted to the left of the 2020 Presidential election. As the Post explains, “The (diagonal) line indicates an equivalent margin in the 2020 presidential contest and in the amendment vote.” This was no fluke or anomaly; voters knew what they were doing and were cold to the amendment. * Why this matters: Democrats hope that abortion rights are truly as popular as this vote made it seem. They plan to double down on the issue moving forward. Unfortunately for them, abortion will not actually be on very many ballots in November, with measures currently expected in Kentucky, Michigan, California and Vermont. None of these states have competitive Senate races this year that could help the Dems overcome the general headwinds they face. The one thing you can count on is that Democrats will now do everything they can to convince voters everywhere that “abortion is on the ballot” when they vote for candidates. Get ready to hear that phrase a lot. What remains to be seen is just how motivating such an effort is. Holding a separate, clear vote on an issue is a lot different than voting on candidates who hold all kinds of other opinions. No matter how strongly voters feel about abortion, they’ll also be taking into account the economy, inflation, taxes, and everything else they typically consider when deciding on a candidate. * Bottom line: It’s not easy to make an election a referendum about one issue if that issue is not literally on the ballot. The news out of Kansas gives the Dems hope, but it is likely not enough to transform a red wave into a blue one. Reconciliation bill heads toward final passage * Sunday afternoon, the Senate voted 51-50, with Vice President Kamala Harris breaking the tie, to pass the Democrats’ long-awaited budget reconciliation package. The House plans to come back into session to vote on it this Friday. * The bill has major provisions for climate, clean energy, taxes, health care, prescription drug prices and more. It allocates over $300 billion for climate change, extends Obamacare subsidies, increases conservation funding, and provides drought relief. The new costs are more than offset by new revenue, including a 15% minimum tax on large corporations, a 1% excise tax on stock buybacks, and increased funding for IRS enforcement. * Why this matters: The recent string of wins continues to roll for Biden. In just the past few weeks, he has notched wins on this bill, the CHIPS Act, a burn pit bill, a historic gun reform bill, the approval of Finland and Sweden joining NATO, and the killing of al-Qaida boss Ayman al-Zawahri in Kabul. Combined with the recent pullback in energy prices and strong jobs reports, things are starting to look up for the party in power. These positive developments couldn’t have come at a better time for the Dems. If the news hadn’t turned around, they may have been headed for a clobbering like no modern party has seen. * Bottom line: The Democrats are still more likely than not to take losses in November, but they have finally taken steps to mitigate the damage. What I'm Watching Here are some of the top stories I read in the past week: Politics & Elections * Axelrod: Biden wins may reduce midterm headwinds facing Democrats to ‘Category 3’ * Fetterman Plans His Return to Campaign Trail in Pennsylvania Senate Race * The Republican National Convention Will Be Held in Milwaukee in 2024 Foreign Policy * U.S. Drone Strike Kills al-Qaida Leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in Kabul * The missiles that killed Qaeda boss Ayman al-Zawahiri were likely a secret variant that uses sharp blades, not explosives, to take out targets * From the one-China policy to the Taiwan Relations Act, here’s what to know Policy & Legislation * Senate Passes Bill to Expand Benefits for Veterans Exposed to Burn Pits * Senate votes 95-1 to add Sweden, Finland to NATO * McConnell dismisses claim he was ‘played’ on reconciliation bill * Democrats add stock buyback tax, scrap carried interest to win Sinema over Miscellaneous * Phones of top Pentagon officials were wiped of Jan. 6 messages * Lawyer Says He Intends to Give Alex Jones’s Texts to House Jan. 6 Panel * Third Person Dies after Being Struck by Lightning Outside White House Balance of Power House of Representatives One change this week. Democrats hold a 220-210 advantage over the GOP. The Republicans lost one member last week with the tragic death of Rep. Jackie Walorski (R-IN) in a car accident. Five seats are now vacant. This gives the Dems a 10-vote advantage, meaning the majority cannot lose more than four members on any vote. If a House vote ends in a tie, the bill fails. If Republicans pick up six or more Democratic seats in November, the balance of power would flip in the chamber. Senate The Senate is tied, with 50 Republicans and 48 Democrats, plus two Independents who caucus with the Democrats. Vice President Kamala Harris holds the tie-breaking vote. Polling President Average: 39.3% Approve, 55.6% Disapprove (Net: -16.3%) Change (in Net) from last week: No change Recent trend: President Biden’s approval rate has not yet significantly improved, despite his recent victories. His approval level is now 4.8 points below where President Trump’s was at this point in his term. Congress Average: 19.6% Approve, 71.0% Disapprove (Net: -51.4%) Change (in Net) from last week: Improved 2.6% Recent trend: Over the past two months, Congress’s net approval gap has worsened by about 7 points. Generic Ballot Average: GOP +0.1% Change from last week: GOP advantage down 0.8% Recent trend: The GOP advantage that has held steady throughout 2022 is on the razor’s edg

    16 min

  3. 08/01/2022

    Political Cheat Sheet: Biden finally gets some wins

    My mission is to bring unbiased political information and analysis to Americans in a way that is interesting and engaging. Thank you for your support! This week’s poll: The results of last week’s poll: Should the federal government take dramatic action to counteract climate change? We had 148 votes cast. Thanks to everyone who participated! The Political Cheat Sheet comes out Monday mornings. I start with a high-level overview of the info in graphical form. If you don’t have time for anything else, just take a quick look every week. Save the image to your phone's photo library for quick reference until next Monday! If you want more detail, scroll past the image. What's happening this week This is your Political Cheat Sheet for the week starting Monday, August 1, 2022. Today is 99 days until the November midterm elections (about 14 weeks). We are 827 days from the 2024 Presidential election (about 27 months). Top Storylines Biden finally scores some wins * Over the past two months, I’ve often apologized for feeling like I’m being overly critical of President Biden. Unfortunately for him, though, just about everything that could go wrong has been going wrong for quite some time. Last week was the first time in months that it felt like he was seeing a glimmer of hope. * As we’ll discuss in a second, the yearlong logjam finally broke and Congress passed a semiconductor and research bill to shore up domestic supplies and help the U.S. compete with China in this critical space. After weeks in the stratosphere, gas prices finally felt like they were coming back down to earth, although they’re still hovering near $4 nationwide. * The biggest news was Senator Joe Manchin’s (D-WV) shocking reversal on the climate, energy, tax increase, and prescription drug bill he had so publicly walked away from just weeks ago. The bill is being called the “most ambitious climate action undertaken by the U.S.” This legislation now looks poised to become law over the coming weeks. * Why this matters: Biden desperately needed these wins. However, he’s still a long way from being out of the woods. The economy is still not in great shape, and last week’s news that we have had two consecutive quarters of economic contraction (which led to a very public argument about whether or not we are technically in a recession - also more on this in a second) stepped on Biden’s good news week. * Bottom line: Having some wins going into November may mitigate the damage of the predicted red tsunami and help it only hit as a normal wave. It may not be perfect, but Biden and his team will gladly take it. Congress passes semiconductor bill * On Thursday, the House passed the CHIPS Act with a broad, bipartisan vote of 243-187. It previously passed the Senate 64-33, and now awaits President Biden’s signature. The bill will provide over $280 billion in total funding, with $52.7 billion of the total directed toward domestic semiconductor production. About $200 billion is directed toward scientific research and the National Science Foundation. It also reauthorizes NASA and provides funding for Supreme Court security. * Republicans were fuming over the bill’s passage, not necessarily because of the substance, but because of what they felt was a deceitful move by Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY). As we discussed recently, Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) said over the July 4 weekend that Republicans would not help pass a semiconductor incentives bill if the Democrats were going to move forward with a reconciliation package. Reconciliation appeared dead as a doornail when Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) backed out a couple of weeks ago, which made Republicans comfortable moving the CHIPS Act forward. No sooner had it passed than Manchin and Schumer announced they had been secretly continuing negotiations on a reconciliation package and had reached an agreement. * Why this matters: Democrats are more than happy to pull one over on McConnell and give him what they feel is a taste of his own medicine. They also are happy to finally have Republicans be on the receiving end of a Manchin power move. I would say this double-cross would poison the well for legislation the rest of the year, but I think that ship already sailed long ago. * Bottom line: The Senate is now finished working across the aisle for 2022. Anything else major will have to wait until either a lame duck session or early 2023. Are we in a recession? * The other big story from last week was the news that the U.S. experienced its second consecutive quarter of GDP contraction, which historically has been used as a shorthand definition of a recession. The White House, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, and a host of other surrogates took to the airwaves ahead of and immediately after the report to try and change the narrative, arguing that the technical definition of a “recession” includes many more factors than this rule of thumb. This became the predominant argument of the political class for at least three or four days last week. * Technically, the White House is correct: the National Bureau of Economic Research takes numerous other factors into account when deciding whether or not to label events “recessions.” However, this yet again looked to me like a messaging mistake for the Biden administration. Rather than making the discussion about the positive news of the week (see above), they turned the narrative into a grand example of the Streisand Effect: when attempts to minimize or distract attention from a piece of information have the unintended consequence of drawing further attention to the issue. * Why this matters: The multi-day argument over the definition of “recession” ultimately led far more people to talk about there being a recession than if the administration hadn’t made the definition such an issue. People are feeling the pinch of higher prices, and they don’t much care what word you use to label it. They just want to know that their elected leaders care about them and are working hard to fix the problem. * Bottom line: The Biden team continues to be tone-deaf in its efforts to address the economic needs and concerns of everyday Americans. They need to bring in some high-level leadership that can focus on how their words connect to ordinary people and stop focusing on eggheadery such as this. What I'm Watching Here are some of the top stories I read in the past week: Politics & Elections * How Can Democrats Persuade Voters They’re Not a Party of Rich Elites? * No, really — What if Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez runs for president? * Revolving door creates questions and complications for Kamala Harris * Republicans Confront Unexpected Online Money Slowdown * Fox News snubbed Trump’s speech, in what’s becoming a pattern. Policy & Legislation * White House says Biden will make decision on student loans * What is reconciliation, and what are Democrats going to get done with it? * Senate Democrats running out of time to move agenda * Bill restricting Big Cat ownership, made famous by ‘Tiger King’ and pushed by Carole Baskin, passes House * Permanent daylight saving time hits brick wall in House * Biden Is Facing Crisis After Crisis. But Are They Emergencies? * Democrats introduce bill to enact term limits for Supreme Court justices Congress * Former congressman charged with insider trading * Pelosi’s husband sells off up to $5 million worth of chipmaker stock ahead of semiconductor bill vote * Angry callers are threatening Congress. These interns are on the front lines * New House security program to provide members $10K to safeguard their homes * Freedom Caucus demands rule changes for House and GOP conference And a fun one: * Senator jokes about using Defense Production Act to save Choco Taco Balance of Power House of Representatives No changes this week. Democrats hold a 220-211 advantage over the GOP. Four seats are now vacant. This gives the Dems a 9-vote advantage, meaning the majority cannot lose more than four members on any vote. If a House vote ends in a tie, the bill fails. If Republicans pick up five or more Democratic seats in November, the balance of power would flip in the chamber. Senate The Senate is tied, with 50 Republicans and 48 Democrats, plus two Independents who caucus with the Democrats. Vice President Kamala Harris holds the tie-breaking vote. Polling President Average: 39.7% Approve, 56.0% Disapprove (Net: -16.3%) Change (in Net) from last week: Improved 2.7% Recent trend: President Biden bounced back this week, almost improving his net by 3 points. He’s still about 3 points lower than he was two months ago, though, and has a long way to go to get back to positive approval. His approval level is now 3.8 points below where President Trump’s was at this point in his term. Congress Average: 18.4% Approve, 72.4% Disapprove (Net: -54.0%) Change (in Net) from last week: Worsened 0.3% Recent trend: Over the past two months, Congress’s net approval gap has worsened by about 8 points. Generic Ballot Average: GOP +0.9% Change from last week: GOP advantage down 1.6% Recent trend: Republicans have held a fairly consistent advantage since mid-January, but it has shown some signs of narrowing in recent weeks. On the Calendar President No travel announced. House Recess this week and the next six weeks. Senate In session this week, recess the next four weeks. Upcoming Primaries Full list of primaries Tomorrow: Tuesday, August 2 - five states with federal primaries: Arizona * Senate: Big GOP race to see who goes up against Sen. Mark Kelly (D) in November. I covered this race a few weeks ago. It looks like this is coming down to the wire as a two-man race between Trump-backed venture capitalist and Peter Thiel acolyte Blake Masters and former solar energy exec Jim Lamon. Tons of cash has been spent in this race by both candidates as well as outside PACs. Masters initially separated himself from the crowd a

    14 min

  4. 07/25/2022

    Political Cheat Sheet: Heat wave fuels push for climate action

    Our mission is to bring unbiased political information and analysis to Americans in a way that is interesting and engaging. Thank you for your support! The results of last week’s poll: Should Donald Trump run for President in 2024? We had 191 votes cast, and all ballots were counted (I swear). Thanks to everyone who participated! I really like this new feature… nice job, Substack. Let’s try it again: I’ll share the results next week. The Political Cheat Sheet comes out Monday mornings. I start with a high-level overview of the info in graphical form. If you don’t have time for anything else, just take a quick look every week. Save the image to your phone's photo library for quick reference until next Monday! If you want more detail, scroll past the image. What's happening this week This is your Political Cheat Sheet for the week starting Monday, July 25, 2022. Today is 106 days until the November midterm elections (about 15 weeks). We are 834 days from the 2024 Presidential election (about 27 months). Top Storylines Worldwide heat wave fuels push for government action on climate * The main story for the past week was the abnormally high temperatures throughout the U.S. and Europe. While these are usually localized phenomena, what made this time different was just how widespread it was. The U.S. was broiling, with widespread areas hitting 100-plus several days in a row. London hit an all-time record high of 104.5 degrees, Belgium and Germany were scorching, and Greenland was seeing short-sleeve weather, melting over six billion tons a day of ice. * Back in Washington, the Biden administration used this backdrop as an opportunity to talk about his efforts to ratchet up a climate change response. President Joe Biden (D) has taken flak from his left wing for not doing more to act on climate policy. After Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) backed out of climate talks a week and a half ago, climate activists have increased their calls for executive action by the president. * Biden gave a speech in Massachusetts on Wednesday focused on climate policy. While he did not take formal steps to declare climate change a “national emergency,” he used the word “emergency” several times in his speech and called it a “clear and present danger” and vowed to act if Congress does not. The White House said he would not declare a “climate emergency” last week, but that discussions along those lines were ongoing. * Some conservative commentators have warned that declaring a state of emergency would allow Biden to legally suspend the Constitution and effectively become a dictator on anything he deemed climate-related. This is not true. An emergency declaration does allow expanded executive powers, but they are still limited and bound by the Constitution. * This helpful article from The Hill lays out the powers and limits of such a declaration. The main thrust is this: The declaration would empower Biden to use the Defense Production Act, which could provide loans that could bolster clean energy deployment, and the International Economic Emergency Protection Act, which (Mark Nevitt, a professor at the Emory University’s School of Law) said could prohibit the imports of “harmful climate products” such as chemical compounds that warm the planet and illegally harvested timber from the Amazon.  Nevitt also said that Biden could deploy military construction powers to build renewable energy projects near military bases or other energy security projects. * A declaration would provide a few other opportunities for action, but none so drastic as suspending the Constitution. * Why this matters: No matter how creative Biden gets, his powers are nowhere near as broad as legislative power to make new law. This is especially true considering the Supreme Court’s recent decision in West Virginia vs. EPA, which said that under the “Major Questions Doctrine,” the executive branch does not have the power to read between the lines to enact major new policies that are supposed to be decided by Congress. * Bottom line: Declaring emergencies to get around Congress is not a good precedent or plan, no matter the administration. Given the constraints of executive authority, ultimately if major governmental action is going to happen, Congress is going to have to decide to act. Odds of Electoral Count Act revamp getting stronger * Few Americans probably realize that the events of January 6, 2021, were driven by the ambiguities of a law passed in 1887, the Electoral Count Act, or ECA. This mess of a statute is 809 words arranged in one paragraph and 10 confusing sentences. The longest sentence is 275 words. This poor 19th-century drafting makes the ECA chock-full of ambiguities and contradictions. Read it for yourself - it’s unintelligible. * The lack of clarity in the statute is what provided the legal cover for President Trump’s efforts to reverse the results of the 2020 election during the January 6 vote-counting session in Congress. Since then, many legal experts and members of the House and Senate have expressed the need to reform the ECA and remove its ambiguities and contradictions. * Last week, a group of 16 Senators introduced the Electoral Count Reform and Presidential Transition Improvement Act of 2022. The group includes nine Republicans - one short of what it would take to pass the Senate, assuming all Democrats stay on board. Among other things, the bill would clarify that the Vice President plays only a “ministerial” role in counting the votes and does not have unilateral authority to accept or reject votes. It also raises the bar to object to a state’s slate of electors from the current level of one member of each chamber to one-fifth of both chambers. After the bill was introduced, other Senators expressed openness to the idea, including some additional Republicans. * Why this matters: Reducing confusion and ambiguity is usually a good thing in the law, and this Is one of the most confusing and ambiguous statutes on the books. The fact that it covers one of the most important parts of our system of government makes it all that much more important to clarify well in advance of the next election. * Bottom line: I believe this will get done in the next few months. It may not make as many headlines as some flashier subjects, but it might be one of the most important pieces of legislation that Congress could pass for the future of our system of government. Health issues plaguing politicians of all ages * President Biden’s COVID diagnosis made all kinds of headlines this week. Fortunately, it seems like his symptoms are mild and improving. He has even made a public appearance, which is pretty strong evidence that he’s truly doing okay. * We’ve talked a lot about how it seems like the Democrats can’t catch a break lately - this is even true in their own physical health. A few examples: * Pennsylvania Lieutenant Governor, and Dem nominee for U.S. Senate, John Fetterman, 52, suffered a stroke just days before the Senate primary. * Senator Ben Ray Luján (D-NM), 50, also suffered a serious stroke in January, endangering the Democratic majority in the Senate. * Senator Chris Van Hollen (D-MD), 63, also suffered a minor stroke in May, putting him out of commission for some time. * Senator Patrick Leahy (D-VT), 82, the longest-serving Senator, fractured his hip and has had two surgeries to repair it in recent weeks. He was briefly hospitalized in January 2021 with muscle spasms. As the longest-serving member of the majority party, he serves as president pro tempore of the Senate, which puts him third in line to the Presidency. * It’s not only Democrats who have had their share of troubles. Senator Kevin Cramer (R-ND), 61, had a yard work accident in June that resulted in potential finger amputation. I’m sure there are plenty of other examples of accident and illness. * Why this matters: Sometimes we forget that these are human beings who occasionally have ordinary health problems. Members of Congress are under immense physical and mental stress. At any moment, things can change at the drop of a hat. * Bottom line: Keep our elected officials in your thoughts and prayers. It’s best for our country if we resolve our political disagreements at the ballot box rather than the hospital. What I'm Watching Here are some of the top stories I read in the past week: Politics * Dems second-guessing their strategic decisions * Cracks form in Biden’s Senate Democratic base * The 1976 and 1980 primaries are not precedents Biden will want to emulate * The history of primary meddling — and how risky Dems’ attempts in 2022 are * So will Democrats try to boost Trump in the 2024 primaries, too? Abortion * House Passes Bill to Codify Contraception Rights After Dobbs * A triumphant antiabortion movement begins to deal with its divisions * Where Abortion Is on the Ballot Congress * House passes bill protecting marriage equality, with 47 GOP members voting ‘yes’ * Ocasio-Cortez pushes back on claims she ‘faked’ being handcuffed during arrest * Biden: Military thinks potential Pelosi trip to Taiwan is ‘not a good idea’ * Eight U.S. House Offices File for the Right to Unionize * Congress needs to take disaster planning seriously, Modernization panel says January 6 Committee * Watchdog Informs Secret Service of Criminal Inquiry Into Missing Texts * Bannon guilty on two criminal contempt of Congress charges And a fun one: * Triumph the Insult Comic Dog will not be prosecuted for trespassing in Capitol Balance of Power House of Represeives changes this week. Democrats hold a 220-211 advantage over the GOP. Four seats are now vacant. This gives the Dems a 9-vote advantage, meaning the majority cannot lose more than four members on any vote. If a House vote ends in a tie, the bill fails. If Republicans pick up five or more Democratic seats in November, the balance of power would flip in the chamber. Senate

    12 min

  5. 07/18/2022

    Political Cheat Sheet: Biden Fist-Bump Shakes Washington

    On Thursday I asked a simple question: Should Donald Trump run again? I got some very thoughtful responses - thanks to everyone who read and commented! Let’s make it even easier - please cast your anonymous vote here: I’ll share the results next week. The Political Cheat Sheet comes out Monday mornings. I start with a high-level overview of the info in graphical form. If you don’t have time for anything else, just take a quick look every week. Save the image to your phone's photo library for quick reference until next Monday! If you want more detail, scroll past the image. What's happening this week This is your Political Cheat Sheet for the week starting Monday, July 18, 2022. Today is 113 days until the November midterm elections (about 16 weeks). We are 841 days from the 2024 Presidential election (about 28 months). Top Storylines Biden’s Middle East trip draws lukewarm reception back home * On Saturday, Joe Biden returned from his first major trip to the Middle East as president, bringing home a mixed bag of headlines. After a stop in Israel that went mostly according to plan, he flew to Saudi Arabia, where his actions received much more criticism. The lingering image of the entire trip will be Biden fist-bumping Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman upon arrival in the kingdom. * While campaigning for President, Biden had promised to make bin Salman, commonly referred to by his initials MBS, a “pariah” (or outcast) on the world stage. This was in response to U.S. intelligence determining MBS had personally approved the assassination of Jamal Khashoggi, a Saudi Arabian journalist who lived in the U.S. and wrote for The Washington Post. By most reports, Biden only reluctantly agreed to meet with MBS after months of pushing from his advisers, who believed it was necessary to push for expanded pumping of oil. * Before the trip, the White House did its best to avoid the inevitable bad optics of the Biden-MBS meeting, saying Biden would “try to minimize contact” with others while on the trip due to new COVID variants. The press and public saw straight through the effort, though - especially when Biden landed in Israel and promptly started shaking hands with old friends like former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. * After their closed-door meeting, Biden claimed to have pushed MBS on the Khashoggi assassination, a point that was disputed by Saudis in the room. Biden has taken criticism from Americans over his handling of the situation, including the Washington Post’s publisher calling his actions “shameful.” Biden also did not leave the meeting with any firm promises for more oil, instead only getting vague assurances for future action. * Why this matters: Biden fist-bumping MBS was a mistake. It looked like a couple of intimate buddies exchanging a knowing nod rather than the cold business relationship a simple handshake could have projected. Beyond that, the real problem is the bigger picture: Biden’s stock is so low and his domestic situation so dire that he felt he had no option but to beg for help from a pariah state. If he were in a strong position, he never would have felt the need to make this trip and elevate MBS’s position on the world stage. * Bottom line: Right now Biden’s situation is so weak that he has nothing left but bad options. Even still, he isn’t helping himself with unforced errors like the optics of his ill-advised fist-bump and the lack of concrete results from the meeting. Manchin deals blow to Dems’ final attempt at big legislation * Feel like you’ve heard this one before? On Thursday Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) told Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) that he would not support the biggest parts of the Democrats’ reconciliation package, all but killing efforts to pass major legislation before the midterms. Dems had hoped to include major climate, energy, and tax provisions in the bill, but Manchin said he would only support a two-year extension of Obamacare subsidies and a provision to lower prescription drug prices. Manchin said he would not support any items that would add to inflation, telling Schumer he needed to wait to see next month’s numbers before he could support provisions that might add fuel to the inflationary fire. * President Biden responded by saying he would use “strong executive action” to enact climate provisions. He did not give details of exactly what this would include. * Why this matters: Democratic hopes of a big legislative win before November are now dead. They needed every single Democratic Senator on board to pass a reconciliation bill, and they simply do not have the votes now. Biden’s “executive action” statement is hollow - if he could have implemented major climate or tax policy without Congress, he already would have done so. * Bottom line: If Congressional Democrats are going to save their skin for the November midterms, they’ll have to look somewhere other than legislation. Nothing major is going to pass. Inflation roars back into the headlines * Related to our last item, inflation is a problem that won’t go away. After improving a tiny bit last month and bringing out hopes that the worst was behind us, last week’s inflation report put the annual rate at 9.1 percent, setting another 40-year high. The number was worse than experts had predicted. * This chart I made from the Federal Reserve Economic Data engine (aka FRED) shows the Consumer Price Index over the past 5 years and puts in stark relief the difference between current trends and the status quo. So-called “core inflation" - excluding volatile energy and food prices - has been slightly decreasing since March. * Analysts now expect a strong response from the Federal Reserve at its meeting next Tuesday and Wednesday, perhaps raising interest rates a full percent. * Why this matters: Just over 100 days out from the midterm elections, the economic picture continues to be grim. If the Fed increases interest rates a full point next week, millions of Americans with adjustable rate mortgages will be getting a bill for hundreds of dollars more per month right before an election. The only silver lining is that next month’s numbers should improve once the recent pullback in gas prices is factored in. Even still, gas is still stratospheric compared to a year ago. Summer electricity bills are significantly higher this year, as are food prices and darn near everything else. * Bottom line: Electorally, this report was a worst-case scenario for Congressional Democrats. Time is running out to turn around the narrative. Instead of even marginally improving, the news only seems to be getting worse. What I'm Watching Here are some of the top stories I read in the past week: Elections * Donald Trump looks to fall launch for 2024, potentially upending midterms * Biden says he wouldn’t be disappointed to run against Trump again * Half of G.O.P. Voters Ready to Leave Trump Behind, Poll Finds * Most Democrats Don’t Want Biden in 2024, New Poll Shows Congress * Senate Absences Snarl Democrats’ Plans for a Quick Return to Business * Young Voters Are Fed Up With Their (Much) Older Leaders * Take it from top Hill staffers: Congress doesn’t function as it should Foreign Relations * China set to reveal ‘very bad’ economic picture after covid lockdowns * Fertilizer crisis delivers profits and pain as Ukraine fallout broadens * So what coups might John Bolton have been involved in, exactly? January 6 Committee * Bipartisan bill would clarify that VP role with electors is only ceremonial * The significance of the new Steve Bannon tape * Jan. 6 and the Search for Direct Trump Links And a fun one: * Snooki hits Oz over Pennsylvania residency in new video for Fetterman: ‘Jersey will not forget you’ Balance of Power House of Representatives No changes this week. Democrats hold a 220-210 advantage over the GOP. Five seats are now vacant. This gives the Dems a 10-vote advantage, meaning the majority cannot lose more than four members on any vote (if a House vote ends in a tie, the bill fails). If Republicans pick up six or more Democratic seats in November, the balance of power would flip in the chamber. Senate The Senate is tied, with 50 Republicans and 48 Democrats, plus two Independents who caucus with the Democrats. Vice President Kamala Harris holds the tie-breaking vote. Polling President Average: 38.5% Approve, 55.7% Disapprove (Net: -17.2%) Change (in Net) from last week: Improved 0.8% Recent trend: The president gained a little ground this week, but his approval level is now 3.8 points below where President Trump’s was at this point in his term. Congress Average: 19.0% Approve, 71.7% Disapprove (Net: -52.7%) Change (in Net) from last week: Worsened 0.9% Recent trend: Over the past two months, Congress’s net approval gap has worsened by about 10 points. Generic Ballot Average: GOP +2.0% Change from last week: GOP advantage down 0.5% Recent trend: Republicans have held a fairly consistent advantage since mid-January. On the Calendar President President Biden returned from his trip to Israel and Saudi Arabia on Saturday. He has not announced any travel yet for this week. House In session the next two weeks. Senate In session the next three weeks. Upcoming Primaries Full list of primaries Tomorrow: Tuesday, July 21 - One primary. * Maryland * Senate: Senator Chris Van Hollen (D) is running for re-election and is not expected to face any significant challenge. * House: Maryland did not gain or lose any seats in the new Census, retaining eight representatives. However, its new map is more competitive than the old one. Previously there were seven solid Dem districts and one solid GOP, but two of the solid Dem districts are now rated as competitive but Dem-leaning and one is now a toss-up. A couple of interesting races to keep an eye on: * 4th District - Incumbent Anthony Brown (D) is not running for re-election, as he

    13 min

  6. 07/11/2022

    Political Cheat Sheet

    Three quick things before we get started: * If you haven’t yet followed Get Smart Politics on Facebook, please take a second to do so now by clicking here. * I’m working on a deep dive of the Georgia U.S. Senate race (Herschel Walker vs. Raphael Warnock). These things take a while, so it’s hard to say exactly when it’ll be ready! But keep an eye on your inbox… this is a huge race, so you’ll want to stay on top of it. * Subscribe to the podcast at Apple Podcasts, Stitcher, Spotify, and more by searching for Get Smart Politics. If you're more podcast-savvy, copy and paste this URL into your podcast app: https://api.substack.com/feed/podcast/838219.rss The Political Cheat Sheet comes out Monday mornings. I start with a high-level overview of the info in graphical form. If you don’t have time for anything else, just take a quick look every week. Save the image to your phone's photo library for quick reference until next Monday! If you want more detail, scroll past the image. What's happening this week This is your Political Cheat Sheet for the week starting Monday, July 11, 2022. Today is 120 days until the November midterm elections (about 17 weeks). We are 848 days from the 2024 Presidential election (about 28 months). Top Storylines * Top Storylines * Congress battles over final legislative push before elections * With just weeks before the August recess, Congressional Democrats are scrambling to cobble together and pass two major pieces of legislation: a 2,000-plus-page bipartisan domestic semiconductor manufacturing incentive bill known as USICA and a trimmed-down version of last year’s partisan budget reconciliation package. They are hoping to include many provisions in the reconciliation bill, like clean energy incentives, tax increases on high earners, a plan to lower prescription drug prices, an extension of increased Obamacare benefits, and more. * After Dems had appeared to make some progress on the reconciliation bill, Republican Leader Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY) took to Twitter to douse their hopes with ice water: * Democratic Leader Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY) is continuing to look for ways to pressure McConnell into allowing both USICA and reconciliation to proceed. * In even-numbered years (years with Congressional elections), almost no major legislation ever passes after the spring. Occasionally something significant gets across the finish line during June and July. Absent a crisis, absolutely nothing important passes between August and November. Part of that is because lawmakers are on recess (see last week’s newsletter about that here - What does Congress DO on “recess”?), and part is because they don’t want to risk doing anything that might hurt their chances of re-election. Either way, serious legislation this late in the year is a huge uphill battle. * Why this matters: Congressional Democrats remain fearful of a coming red wave in November. After their string of bad political news the past few months, they are searching desperately for a win. If this effort falls through, they can stop looking at Capitol Hill as their search for a lifeboat continues. * Bottom line: Mitch McConnell is not going to be the one tossing a life preserver to the Democrats less than four months before a major election in which he stands a strong chance of earning a major victory. I’m extremely skeptical that anything politically advantageous for the Dems emerges from the Senate at this late hour. * Could trouble across the pond be a preview of things to come here? * After not quite three years in power, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced last week that he will resign once a successor is determined. He had been on thin ice over several issues, most notably the charges of hypocrisy stemming from the flouting of his own government’s COVID policies by holding maskless parties at 10 Downing Street at the height of the pandemic. The final straw, though, was the revelation that he had backed the promotion of MP Chris Pincher to Deputy Chief Whip despite having personal knowledge of prior sexual harassment misconduct. * This fascinating image from Chartr shows just how dramatic and total the collapse of Johnson’s government truly was. Although the pace of resignations had already been running high for his entire tenure, the past week was disastrous. * Why this matters: Many observers believe the U.K. is a leading indicator of the political winds that eventually blow to the U.S., with issues like Brexit (which Johnson championed) viewed as precursors to America’s recent populist turn. The Brits have had their fill of Johnson’s unorthodox personality and brash approach. Is this a harbinger of things to come in America? * Bottom line: In recent months, some signs in the U.S. have also hinted that populism may be on the wane. Trump’s power over GOP primaries is not what it used to be, and the January 6 hearings have been a sobering moment for some. November is not far off, so we will soon see if the BoJo debacle was really predictive of coming waves on this side of the Atlantic. * 2024 Presidential Election already heating up * Speaking of elections… Yes, it’s still 28 months away, but many politicos are already looking past the November midterms and eyeing the 2024 Presidential campaign. We’ve previously covered rumors that former President Donald Trump is considering announcing his candidacy soon. Over the 4th of July, the rumor mill kicked into overdrive when California Governor Gavin Newsom paid for TV ads across Florida needling Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, widely considered the other top GOP contender for the nomination. * Last year’s unsuccessful recall attempt against Newsom, which he defeated by a nearly 24% margin, appears to have actually strengthened him by drawing national attention and raising his profile within the party. He wants to position himself as an unapologetic progressive who isn’t afraid to pick fights with the leading names in the GOP. * Why this matters: Newsom and DeSantis are both in interesting yet similar positions. Each is seen as a younger up-and-comer in their parties, but both have to tread carefully to not step on their parties’ current standard-bearers. Crossing President Biden or former President Trump could potentially kill either Newsom or DeSantis’s ambitions before they ever get off the ground. But the degree to which both have begun openly showing their ambition for the Presidency indicates they are ready to test those waters. * Bottom line: It looks like both parties are on the verge of an all-out war between the old guard and the new. If Newsom and DeSantis both decide to charge forward and challenge the party hierarchy, we could be in for a (hopefully metaphorically) brutal battle. What I'm Watching Here are some of the top stories I read in the past week: Elections * Biden and the Increasingly Anxious Democrats * Biden Promised to Stay Above the Fray, but Democrats Want a Fighter * One of the Few Potential Bright Spots for Democrats in 2022: The Senate * Can Lisa Murkowski Fend Off Kelly Tshibaka in Alaska? * The Strident Writings of a Young Blake Masters Dog His Senate Run in Arizona * Nebraska quirk used new map to fill House vacancy last month Energy * E.P.A. Describes How It Will Regulate Power Plants After Supreme Court Setback * Nuclear Power Gets New Push in U.S., Winning Converts * Germany struggles with 1.6 million tons of underwater WWII weapons and explosives in efforts to develop offshore energy production Miscellaneous * Biden issues executive order responding to abortion ruling * Under Pressure, Biden Issues Executive Order on Abortion And two fun ones for the Anglophiles out there: * UK embassy shares Fourth of July playlist in cheeky nod to former colonial relationship with US * Larry the Cat, Chief Mouser to the Cabinet Office of the United Kingdom, outlasts his third Prime Minister Source: Chicago Tribune Balance of Power House of Representatives No changes this week. Democrats hold a 220-210 advantage over the GOP. Five seats are now vacant. This gives the Dems a 10-vote advantage, meaning the majority cannot lose more than four members on any vote (if a House vote ends in a tie, the bill fails). If Republicans pick up six or more Democratic seats in November, the balance of power would flip in the chamber. Senate The Senate is tied, with 50 Republicans and 48 Democrats, plus two Independents who caucus with the Democrats. Vice President Kamala Harris holds the tie-breaking vote. Polling President Average: 38.4% Approve, 56.4% Disapprove (Net: -18.0%) Change (in Net) from last week: Down 1.3% Recent trend: President Biden’s net disapproval has basically doubled in the past two months, and is now nearing -20%. Biden’s approval level is now 3 points below where President Trump’s was at this point in his term. Congress Average: 19.2% Approve, 71.0% Disapprove (Net: -51.8%) Change (in Net) from last week: Down 1.8% Recent trend: Over the past two months, Congress’s net approval gap has grown by about 10 points as citizens grow more displeased with the direction of the country. Generic Ballot Average: GOP +2.5% Change from last week: GOP advantage up 0.5% Recent trend: Republicans have held a fairly consistent advantage since mid-January. On the Calendar President President Biden will travel to Israel and Saudi Arabia Wednesday through Saturday, July 13-16. House In session the next three weeks. Senate In session the next four weeks. Upcoming Primaries Full list of primaries Tomorrow: Tuesday, June 14 - No primaries. There will be one primary next week in Maryland. In Closing… I'd love your feedback on what would be more helpful to you; more of, less of, different, etc. Please leave a comment or reply to this email with your thoughts. Thank you for listening and reading! —Eric Get full access to Get Smart Politics at getsmartpolitics.substack.com/sub

    14 min

  7. 07/04/2022

    Political Cheat Sheet

    Happy 246th Birthday to our great nation! I hope you’re enjoying it with family and friends. To celebrate, comment below with the name of your favorite song about America! Mine is America by Simon & Garfunkel. Subscribe to the podcast at Apple Podcasts, Stitcher, Spotify, and more by searching for Get Smart Politics. If you're pretty podcast-savvy, copy and paste this URL into your podcast app: https://api.substack.com/feed/podcast/838219.rss A ton has happened in the past few days - I’ll try to break down some of the biggest stories for you on this great holiday. The Political Cheat Sheet comes out Monday mornings. I start with a high-level overview of the info in graphical form. If you don’t have time for anything else, just take a quick look every week. Save the image to your phone's photo library for quick reference until next Monday! If you want more detail, scroll past the image. What's happening this week This is your Political Cheat Sheet for the week starting Monday, July 4, 2022. Today is 127 days until the November midterm elections (about 18 weeks). We are 855 days from the 2024 Presidential election (about 28 months). Top Storylines * Dobbs fallout continues to roil Washington * In the week since the Dobbs ruling was handed down, Democrats have struggled to unite around a common response. Last Saturday, President Biden’s spokesperson said he still does not agree with court-packing to respond to Dobbs. Mid-week, pro-abortion-rights activists were describing the party’s response as “painfully inadequate” and criticized Democratic politicians’ prioritization of fundraising over action. By Thursday, Biden proposed an “exception” to the filibuster to pass abortion protections… which was immediately brushed aside as a non-starter by Senators Sinema (D-AZ) and Manchin (D-WV). * On the other side of the aisle, cracks are beginning to show in the Republican coalition between those who wish to pursue a nationwide ban on abortion and those that truly want to allow each state to make its own laws on the issue. Additional splits are forming around proposals to provide assistance to mothers and families. * Why this matters: Anyone who thought Dobbs ended the abortion debate in this country is kidding themselves. Democrats are at a complete loss for how to respond - they are taking a “fingers crossed” approach and hoping the issue somehow rescues them from a midterm slaughter. However, they at least now have something to rally the troops around. Republicans, meanwhile, may have won the battle, but with this issue now off the table, the army may break apart in the aftermath. Abortion policy tied together a lot of different pieces of a coalition that now may struggle to find common cause. * Bottom line: Abortion policy is far, far from being in the rear-view mirror. Stay tuned and keep an eye on the messaging from different factions within each party - everyone is dipping toes in the water and trying to feel out a new direction for the future of the issue. * January 6 Committee finally breaks through with surprise witness * Until last week, the January 6 Committee had struggled to garner attention for its hearings, even with the effort at a prime-time premiere. But last Tuesday, the testimony of Cassidy Hutchinson, former principal assistant to White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, finally broke through the noise. Her testimony described actions by President Trump that have been widely described by news reports as “bombshell” allegations, including that Trump yelled at aides and Secret Service to allow armed protestors in to his speech on January 6, then tried to grab his vehicle’s steering wheel and force the Secret Service to take him to the Capitol. Some of Hutchinson’s testimony has since called into question, but not before it made real news. The Committee also suggested upcoming testimony will show that Trump or his associates attempted to intimidate potential witnesses. * Why this matters: So long as the allegations of witnesses are more or less the same things that have been in the news for 18 months, this committee’s hearings were not going to get much attention. Trump supporters have not just been waiting for a clearer presentation of known facts before changing their minds about him. The only thing the committee could do to actually change the conversation is present some actual new information, and that’s what Hutchinson’s testimony did. Rumor has it (see below in What I’m Watching #6) that the shifting narrative has President Trump considering announcing a re-election bid to head off more worsening of the narrative. * Bottom line: Trump can’t afford to see his support shaved off by this committee. Announcing early would completely flip the narrative and make it all about his re-election bid - and that’s something Donald J. Trump likes to hear. * Ketanji Brown Jackson sworn in as newest Supreme Court Justice * The Supreme Court wrapped up its term on Thursday, marking the end of Justice Stephen Breyer’s 28-year tenure at the age of 83. The same day, Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson, a 51-year-old former Breyer clerk and judge on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit, was sworn in to take his seat. Justice Jackson (yes, this is how the Court will refer to her) grew up in Miami, then went to Harvard undergrad and Harvard Law School. She performed improv comedy while an undergrad and was a staff writer for Time Magazine for two years. Early in her career, Justice Jackson served as a federal public defender. Check out her full resume and background, as given to the Senate Judiciary Committee, here. * Justice Jackson is widely recognized as a top legal mind and was confirmed 53-47 in April. She is the 116th Supreme Court Justice and sixth woman on the Court. * Why this matters: At only 51 years old, we will likely be talking about our high court’s newest jurist for another 30 to 40 years. It’s important to understand who she is and where she comes from. Ideologically, she is not expected to provide a major change from Justice Breyer, but as we have seen many times, justices have minds of their own and can shift over time. Credit: Wikipedia * Justice Jackson becomes the first Black female Supreme Court Justice, fulfilling President Biden’s promise to nominate a Black woman to fill the opening. * Bottom line: It will take a year or two to get a feel for Justice Jackson’s judicial temperament and ideology. However, she will be tested soon, with the Court agreeing to take up major cases this fall on affirmative action, voting laws, freedom of expression/gay rights, and more. What I'm Watching Here are some of the top stories I read in the past week: Supreme Court * Supreme Court handcuffs Biden on major climate rule * “Major Questions Doctrine” explodes onto the scene at SCOTUS, with possibly broad repercussions * A 30,000-Foot View of the Abortion Ruling’s Political Fallout * A Transformative Term at the Most Conservative Supreme Court in Nearly a Century Credit: New York Times Elections * In Illinois, MAGA Congresswoman Rallies to Oust Her G.O.P. Colleague * GA Senate Race: Warnock Opens Up 10-Point Lead Over Walker * Harvard Poll: Over 70 Percent of Americans Don’t Want Biden to Run Again, Over 60 Percent Don’t Want Trump to Run Again * But… Biden Irked by Democrats Who Won’t Take ‘Yes’ for an Answer on 2024, * and Trump Eyes Early 2024 Announcement as Jan. 6 Scrutiny Intensifies Congress * Leahy's surgery could complicate Democratic agenda * The 20-Somethings Who Help the 70-Somethings Run Washington Immigration * U.S. charges driver and 3 others in deaths of 53 migrants found in tractor-trailer And a fun one: * Harry Wilson calls Lee Zeldin and aide ‘scumbags’ in a text mistakenly sent… to Zeldin. Ouch. Balance of Power House of Representatives No changes this week. Democrats hold a 220-210 advantage over the GOP. Five seats are now vacant. This gives the Dems a 10-vote advantage, meaning the majority cannot lose more than four members on any vote (if a House vote ends in a tie, the bill fails). If Republicans pick up six or more Democratic seats in November, the balance of power would flip in the chamber. Senate The Senate is tied, with 50 Republicans and 48 Democrats, plus two Independents who caucus with the Democrats. Vice President Kamala Harris holds the tie-breaking vote. Polling President Average: 39.2% Approve, 55.9% Disapprove (Net: -16.7%) Change (in Net) from last week: Up 0.1% Recent trend: The past month has seen President Biden’s net approval drop 3.8 points. There is a clear negative trend in his approval rating over the past several weeks. Biden’s approval level is now 3.5 points below where President Trump’s was at this point in his term. Congress Average: 20.2% Approve, 70.2% Disapprove (Net: -50.0%) Change (in Net) from last week: Down 2.0% Recent trend: These numbers have remained fairly stable most of 2022, but the past month and a half has shown net approval getting steadily worse. Generic Ballot Average: GOP +2.0% Change from last week: GOP advantage down 1.4% Recent trend: Republicans have held a fairly consistent advantage since mid-January. On the Calendar President President Biden will travel to Cleveland on Wednesday to speak about his economic agenda. Biden’s next major foreign travel will be next Wednesday through Saturday, July 13-16, when he will travel to Israel and Saudi Arabia. House Recess this week; in session the next three weeks Senate Recess this week; in session the next four weeks Upcoming Primaries Full list of primaries No primaries this week or next week. The next primary date is Tuesday, July 19, with Maryland. In Closing… I'd love your feedback on what would be more helpful to you; more of, less of, different, etc. Please leave a comment or reply to this email with your thoughts. Thank you for listening and reading! —Eric Get full

    13 min
  8. Political Cheat Sheet

    06/27/2022

    Political Cheat Sheet

    Editor’s note: tomorrow morning I’ll release my analysis of the Florida Senate race. Does your mom live in Florida? Your brother, friend, or cousin? Forward them this email and tell them to subscribe so they don’t miss it! -Eric No one will be surprised that this week’s #1 story is the Supreme Court. Two enormous rulings at the end of the week expanded the interpretation of the 2nd Amendment and overturned Roe v. Wade. It’s hard to get bigger than that, so that’s where we’ll start. But first… The Political Cheat Sheet comes out Monday mornings. I start with a high-level overview of the info in graphical form. If you don’t have time for anything else, just take a quick look every week. Save the image to your phone's photo library for quick reference until next Monday! If you want more detail, scroll past the image. What's happening this week This is your Political Cheat Sheet for the week starting Monday, June 27, 2022. Today is 134 days until the November midterm elections (about 19 weeks). We are 862 days from the 2024 Presidential election (about 29 months). Top Storylines * Top Storylines * SCOTUS overturns Roe * On Friday, the Supreme Court announced its opinion in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, overturning Roe v. Wade and Planned Parenthood v. Casey. This is one of the most important decisions in the history of the Court and a massive earthquake decades in the making. Aftershocks will reverberate for many years into the future. * Why this matters: The immediate practical impact is not that abortion is illegal nationwide, but rather that each state now has the ability to decide for itself whether or not abortion is legal within its boundaries. The political impact this November is the focus of intense speculation, but it is far too early to tell if it will actually change any outcomes at the ballot box. Some believe it will motivate Democratic constituencies to flood the polls and reverse the building red wave; others believe it will demoralize Democratic voters into staying home and sitting the election out. * Bottom line: Mark this week down in your journal. Years from now we will still be talking about Dobbs and its impact. We will not know for months or years just what the final effects of the decision are, so for now, just pay attention to the moment and remember. You’ll be thinking back to these times for decades. * SCOTUS expands 2nd Amendment interpretation as Congress tightens gun laws * On Thursday, the Court issued an opinion that, in any other year, would have been the blockbuster of the term. In New York State Rifle & Pistol Association v. Bruen, the Court held that Americans have an individual Constitutional right to bear arms, and that the right does not require government permission to exercise. Justice Clarence Thomas, writing for the majority, said, “We know of no other constitutional right that an individual may exercise only after demonstrating to government officials some special need.“ * On Friday, Congress passed the bipartisan compromise on gun legislation. President Biden signed the bill into law on Saturday, completing an incredible path from the drawing board to enacted law in the course of less than two weeks. The bill expands background checks for 18-to-21-year-old buyers, funds mental health and drug courts, encourages red flag laws through money to states, tightens gun trafficking and straw purchasing laws, and tightens what has been called the “boyfriend loophole.” * Why this matters: The Braun decision’s immediate impact is not enormous. Only six states had a licensing regime similar to that of New York. The long-term impact is that the Court, for the first time, decided that the 2nd Amendment protects an individual’s right to bear arms in public. The case’s holding will be the new basis for courts’ analysis of gun laws’ constitutionality moving forward. As for Congress’s action, the actual legal changes were fairly mild compared to what Democrats had sought. It is nonetheless being touted as the biggest gun legislation in nearly 30 years. Politically, I think this bill’s passage is likely to take any further gun control off the table for a decade or more. * Bottom line: Bruen is another major blow to Democrats, as it further solidifies the right’s perspective on the 2nd Amendment as the law of the land. And with Congress’s action Friday, gun laws are unlikely to get stricter for a long time. I doubt Democrats are going to be satisfied with that. * Biden proposes suspending fuel tax * On Wednesday, President Biden proposed a three-month suspension of federal gas and diesel taxes. As I mentioned that day, the 18.4-cent gasoline tax only accounts for 3.7% of the current price of gas. His proposal was met with lukewarm reception from both sides of the aisle, even from Speaker Pelosi. * Why this matters: Suspending the gas tax is widely viewed as a gimmick that would not help consumers very much and may cause more long-term problems than it solves. Senator Manchin said he would not vote for the proposal, making it dead on arrival in the Senate. Frankly, it looks like Biden’s team did not vet this proposal through his necessary Congressional allies at all before springing it on them. * Bottom line: If this is Biden’s best effort to help consumer pain at the pump, he’s pretty much out of ideas. It will not happen and will not even earn him much PR credit. What I'm Watching Here are some of the top stories I read in the past week: * All 213 pages of the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization opinion (ok, I didn’t actually read the whole thing, but it’s pretty monumental.) * ‘It’s Become Real’: Abortion Decision Roils Midterms, Sending Fight to States * Here’s what is in the Senate’s gun bill — and what was left out. * Biden to call for three-month suspension of federal gas taxes * Gas prices aren't leading to less driving — yet Source: Axios * Here’s where Trump’s endorsement record stands so far * Can Democrats “Break Away” From an Unpopular President? * Conservative faction’s earmark requests illustrate GOP divide * GOP senator suffers ‘serious’ hand injury, may require amputation * Can Congress be a little more like a tech company? Maybe. * Note: I highly recommend the apps the story mentions, Dome Watch and Dome Directory, both available on major app stores. And a fun(?) one: * Meet the Peecyclers. Their Idea to Help Farmers is No. 1. Balance of Power House of Representatives Republicans picked up another seat this week when Mayra Flores (R-TX) was sworn in to succeed Filemon Vela (D-TX). As of today, Democrats hold a 220-210 advantage over the GOP. Five seats are vacant. This gives the Dems a 10-vote advantage, meaning the majority cannot lose more than four members on any vote (if a House vote ends in a tie, the bill fails). Senate The Senate is tied, with 50 Republicans and 48 Democrats, plus two Independents who caucus with the Democrats. Vice President Kamala Harris holds the tie-breaking vote. Polling President Average: 39.3% Approve, 56.1% Disapprove (Net: -16.8%) Change (in Net) from last week: Down 3.4% Recent trend: The past month has seen President Biden’s net approval drop 3 points. There is now a distinct, discernable negative trend in his approval rating over the past several weeks. Biden’s approval level is now 3.3 points below where President Trump’s was at this point in his term. Congress Average: 21.0% Approve, 69.0% Disapprove (Net: -48.0%) Change (in Net) from last week: Down 1.2% Recent trend: These numbers have remained fairly stable since mid-January. Generic Ballot Average: GOP +3.4 Change from last week: GOP advantage down 0.1% Recent trend: Republicans have held a fairly consistent advantage in the +3s to low +4s since mid-January. On the Calendar President President Biden is attending the G7 summit in Germany and the NATO summit in Spain through Thursday. House Recess this week and next week. Senate Recess this week and next week. Upcoming Primaries Full list of primaries Tomorrow: Tuesday, June 28… there are a ton this week, but then we barely have anything until August. Bear with me. Primaries: * Colorado * Senate: Senator Michael Bennet (D) is running for a third full term. He will face the winner of the Republican primary, which is between State Rep. Ron Hanks and businessman Joe O’Dea. The race is on most lists of competitive general election contests, and Bennet did not crack 50% of the vote in either of his prior elections. This is definitely one to watch this fall if the rumored “red tsunami” materializes. * House: Colorado added a seat in the Census, going up from 7 seats to 8. The new seat, the 8th, also happens to be almost a pure toss-up district, at R+1. The 7th district has been represented by Ed Perlmutter (D) for eight terms, but he is retiring. At just D+3, it will be a prime target for national Republicans as well. * Illinois * Senate: Senator Tammy Duckworth (D) is seeking a second term and should win handily. * House: Opposite of Colorado, Illinois lost a seat in the Census, going from 18 to 17. Despite this, the new map is one of the most heavily gerrymandered in the nation, putting Democrats in a position to potentially pick up a representative. * New York * Senate: Senator Charles Schumer (D) is seeking a fifth term and should win handily. * House: New York also lost a seat, going from 27 to 26. Several races look to be competitive in November, with four toss-up districts and seven leaning districts (4 D, 3 R). The biggest storyline here is the incumbent-on-incumbent primary in New York City between two longtime Reps, Jerrold Nadler (D) and Carolyn Maloney (D). Out of the House’s 435 members, Nadler is the 13th most senior and Maloney is 20th. Nadler chairs the Judiciary Committee and Maloney chairs Oversight and Government Reform. The House primaries are delayed until August 23 due

    14 min

  9. 06/20/2022

    Political Cheat Sheet & Oklahoma Senate Update

    Note: Yesterday I updated my Oklahoma Senate analysis with new polling data, FEC campaign finance data, and more. Go take a look and share it with your friends - there’s only one more week until election day! Other Note: I hit the wrong button when recording today’s audio version, so I apologize for the poor sound quality. Lesson learned. Next week’s edition will be top-notch! —Eric It’s a busy time in Washington, with ongoing January 6 hearings, continued negotiations over gun law reforms, the pending release of the Supreme Court’s Dobbs opinion on abortion, and more. I’m going to do my best to stay on top of it all and make sure you’re the first to know what’s important and why it matters! The Political Cheat Sheet comes out Monday mornings. I start with a high-level overview of the info in graphical form. If you don’t have time for anything else, just take a quick look every week. Save the image to your phone's photo library for quick reference until next Monday! If you want more detail, scroll past the image. What's happening this week This is your Political Cheat Sheet for the week starting Monday, June 20, 2022. Today is 141 days until the November midterm elections (about 20 weeks). We are 869 days from the 2024 Presidential election (about 29 months). Top Storylines * Top Storylines * Dobbs watch is on * The Supreme Court’s term typically ends the last week of June or first week of July. Many years this goes by without notice, but not 2022. We are still waiting for opinions to be handed down in 19 cases. The blockbuster of the term will be Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, which is widely expected to overturn Roe v. Wade after a draft decision was leaked in May. There’s no way to know for sure if the opinion will come out this week or next, but it’s going to consume the week’s news when it does. * Why this matters: The Biden administration is struggling under a rash of bad news, much of it economic. The pending Dobbs decision could supercharge the social and cultural debate on the hottest of hot-button issues. Some left-wing activist groups have already been committing violence against pregnancy care centers and promising more if Dobbs overturns Roe - actions condemned by the White House last week. A man was arrested two weeks ago just steps from Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s home and charged with attempted murder of the Justice. * Bottom line: The temperature is already approaching the boiling point in our society. There is a significant chance Dobbs could be the catalyst to set off major protests and civic unrest. * Recession talk picks up * Last week, the Federal Reserve raised benchmark interest rates by 0.75%, the largest increase since 1994. Fed Chair Jerome Powell also suggested rates could rise another 0.50% or 0.75% next month. In the wake of this announcement, financial and political media began fiercely debating whether or not the Fed’s actions intended to rein in inflation will cause a recession. * Why this matters: The current inflation rate stands at an eye-popping 8.6% and has been rising steadily since bottoming out two years ago at 0.1% in May 2020. Inflation of consumer goods, gasoline, and grocery prices has been hitting Americans - aka voters - hard in the pocketbook throughout the first half of 2022. The stock market entered bear market territory last week, down 20% from its recent peak. If a true recession hits in the next few months, causing job losses and more economic harm, it will be politically catastrophic for the party in the White House, whether or not they caused the problems. * Bottom line: Democrats are already expecting a red wave in November. A recession in the next four months would turn that red wave into a red tsunami. * Gun deal hits speed bump * Last week I reported on the landmark framework agreement on gun reform, but cautioned that it was far from a done deal. Just days later, word came from Congressional negotiators that the bill’s language has hit a snag over how to define “boyfriend” (or “girlfriend”) when attempting to close the “boyfriend loophole.” Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) has threatened to toss out the entire provision. * Why this matters: As always with bipartisan agreements, the devil is in the details. Sometimes there is true disagreement in the detailed legislative language; sometimes negotiators feeling heat from their base for making a deal find a reason to blow it up. So far it still seems that negotiators have not gotten cold feet on the overall package, but this could be a bad sign. * Bottom line: Conservatives and Progressives have each been internally split on whether or not this compromise is a good deal. While the boyfriend issue is a legitimately difficult one to hammer out, it also buys both sides more time to take the temperature of their parties and decide if they really want to move forward or not. What I'm Watching Here are some of the top stories I read in the past week: * Bill Clinton offers advice on talking to pro-gun rights activists: “Don’t talk down to them” * Biden likely to meet Saudi crown prince, reversing campaign vow * Jan. 6 Panel Puts Trump Fund-Raising Tactics Under Scrutiny * GOP Senate retirements could spell trouble for earmarks’ future * House looks to beef up security, braces for unions with Legislative Branch bill * 10 lawmakers who followed their fathers’ path to Congress * Brooklyn venue cancels sold-out concert featuring attempted Reagan assassin * The End of the Millennial Lifestyle Subsidy * Get ready for the catastrophic Diesel Exhaust Fluid (DEF) shortage * Joe Biden tips over (he’s okay) And a fun one: * Triumph the Insult Comic Dog arrested for unlawful entry at U.S. Capitol Balance of Power House of Representatives Republicans picked up one seat this week with the special election victory of Connie Conway (R-CA) in California’s 22nd District to serve out the remaining term of Devin Nunes (R-CA), who resigned in January. This week, Mayra Flores (R-TX) won the race to succeed Filemon Vela (D-TX), and once she is sworn in on Tuesday, the Republicans will pick up one more from the vacancy column. But as of today, Democrats hold a 220-209 advantage over the GOP. Six seats are vacant. This gives the Dems an 11-vote advantage, meaning the majority cannot lose more than five members on any vote (if a House vote ends in a tie, the bill fails). Senate The Senate is tied, with 50 Republicans and 48 Democrats, plus two Independents who caucus with the Democrats. Vice President Kamala Harris holds the tie-breaking vote. Polling President Average: 39.8% Approve, 54.2% Disapprove (Net: -14.4%) Change (in Net) from last week: Down 1.0% Recent trend: The past month has seen President Biden’s net approval drop about 2 points. Biden’s approval level is now 2.8 points below where President Trump’s was at this point in his term. Congress Average: 21.2% Approve, 69.0% Disapprove (Net: -47.8%) Change (in Net) from last week: Down 1.0% Recent trend: These numbers have remained fairly stable since mid-January. Generic Ballot Average: GOP +2.5 Change from last week: GOP advantage down 1.0% Recent trend: Republicans have held a fairly consistent advantage in the +3s to low +4s from mid-January until mid-May. On the Calendar President President Biden is in Delaware until Tuesday. He leaves Saturday for a six-day European trip to attend the G7 summit in Germany and the NATO Summit in Spain. House In Session Tuesday through Friday this week. Recess the next two weeks. Senate In Session this week. Recess the next two weeks. Upcoming Primaries Full list of primaries Tomorrow: Tuesday, June 21 * Alabama (Runoffs) * Senate: Katie Britt, former Chief of Staff to retiring Senator Richard Shelby, takes on Rep. Mo Brooks. Britt has maintained a healthy lead in recent polls, but Brooks’ resurgence since being left for dead by Trump in March leaves many uncertain of the outcome. If he can continue that momentum and complete his comeback, it would send a massive statement about Trump’s continuing grip on the GOP. * House: One runoff in the 5th District Republican Primary. This race to replace Mo Brooks pits Dale Strong (who received 44.7% in the primary) vs. Casey Wardynski (23.0%). * Arkansas (Runoffs: no Senate or House runoffs) * Georgia (Runoffs) * Senate: No runoff * House: Several House primaries have proceeded to runoffs. I will focus on the seats that are potentially in play in November. * The 2nd District GOP primary will have Jeremy Hunt (37.0%) face Chris West (30.1%). Hunt is endorsed by Senators Tom Cotton (R-AR) and Josh Hawley (R-MO). The winner will face 30-year Democratic incumbent Rep. Sanford Bishop in a race rated anywhere from Tossup to Likely D. The new 2nd District rates D+4 and is the most competitive district in the state. It should be highly competitive in November. * The 6th District GOP primary will have Rich McCormick (43.1%) face Jake Evans (23.0%). The seat Is currently held by Rep. Lucy McBath (D), but she opted to run in the nearby 7th District, as the new 6th is heavily Republican at R+24. Evans is endorsed by former President Donald Trump, while McCormick is endorsed by Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) and several sitting U.S. Representatives. * The 10th District GOP primary will have Mike Collins (25.6%) face Vernon Jones (21.5%) in a race to replace Rep. Jody Hice (R), who unsuccessfully challenged the Georgia Secretary of State in the recent primary. Collins is endorsed by Governor Brian Kemp, while Jones is endorsed by former President Donald Trump. The district leans heavily Republican at R+31. * Virginia (Primaries) * Senate: No Senate election. * House: Virginia will have several competitive elections among its 11 seats. * The new 2nd District leans R+6, putting incumbent Elaine Luria (D) in deep trouble. Four Republicans are on the ballot fighting to face Luria, and it appears Jen Kiggans has gained the most su

    16 min

  10. 06/13/2022

    Political Cheat Sheet

    Summer is definitely here, and things are figuratively heating up in DC, too. Last week the January 6 primetime hearings drew lots of attention, news came yesterday of a deal on gun legislation, and the Democrats began speaking openly of replacing President Biden on the 2024 ticket. We’ll get into those stories and more. The Political Cheat Sheet comes out Monday mornings. We start with a high-level overview of the info in graphical form. If you don’t have time for anything else, just take a quick look every week. Save the image to your phone's photo library for quick reference until next Monday! If you want more detail, scroll past the image. What's happening this week This is your Political Cheat Sheet for the week starting Monday, June 13, 2022. Today is 148 days until the November midterm elections (about 21 weeks). We are 876 days from the 2024 Presidential election (about 29 months). Top Storylines * Top Storylines * January 6 Committee continues its hearings * Last Thursday, nearly 19 million people watched the prime-time hearing held by the House Select Committee on the January 6 Attack. The Committee’s presentation alleged a seven-part conspiracy by President Trump to overturn the results of the 2020 Presidential Election. This week brings three more days of hearings on Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday, but they will not be held in prime time. * Why this matters: The 19 million viewership number for the Thursday night hearing was surprisingly high. With this week’s hearings being during the workday, expect much less attention for the subsequent episodes. Thursday’s hearing did not have any true bombshells and mainly re-stated many things that had been discussed at length previously. * Bottom line: Ultimately, everyone already has their minds made up about January 6. For Democrats, it is clear President Trump tried to overturn a free and fair election, and he and his supporters should be held fully accountable as such. For Republicans, it was either not nearly as bad as Democrats make it out to be, or it was a one-off event that got out of control due to some bad apples in the crowd. No hearing, prime-time or not, is going to change this dynamic. * Gun control compromise reached * On Sunday, a group comprised of 10 Democrat Senators and 10 Republican Senators announced they had reached a deal on a framework to reform certain gun laws. The agreement includes incentives for states to implement “red flag” laws, increased funding for school security, and increased funding for mental health services. * Why this matters: Democrats needed to find 10 GOP votes to overcome the filibuster, and it appears they have them. However, I will be watching the response of gun control activists closely. There's a chance they will be outraged by the tepid nature of this agreement and will demand more. * Bottom line: If activists raise enough of a ruckus, this agreement could fall apart in the Senate before it even reaches a vote. They also could create chaos in the House by pushing progressive members to demand a stronger bill, which could torpedo passage. * Cracks in Biden’s united front starting to show * President Biden has continually said he plans to run for re-election in 2024. However, his sliding approval numbers plus seemingly endless bad economic news have been privately worrying Democrats. Privately, that is, until the New York Times ran a story last week entitled “Should Biden Run in 2024? Democratic Whispers of ‘No’ Start to Rise.” The story quoted several high-profile Democrats on the record raising concerns about Biden’s fitness and ability to run, including top Obama strategist David Axelrod. * Why this matters: Now that these arguments have spilled out into the public - and in the New York Times, no less - the gloves will come off. Notably, the story says that few Democrats have an appetite to run Vice President Kamala Harris, and said they are openly exploring other options. * Bottom line: Without a looming re-election bid, any President quickly earns lame-duck status, making it nearly impossible to get anything new done. Unfortunately for Biden, it looks more and more like that day is quickly approaching. What I'm Watching Here are some of the top stories I read in the past week: * Paladino Draws Backlash for Calling Hitler “the Kind of Leader We Need” * “Clusterf--k”: Inside The Washington Post’s Social Media Meltdown * Inflation Sped Up Again in May, Dashing Hopes for Relief * Gas prices present glaring problem for Biden * Biden nixes Trump design for Air Force One over cost, delay * Colorado to Examine Lauren Boebert’s Mileage Claims and Tax Liens * Hill staff just got raises. Now members say it's their turn. * Another Challenge for November: Getting Enough Paper for the Ballots * Chart: Skyrocketing Cost of Eggs, Milk, Meat, and Other Food Staples And a fun one: * 2022 Uber Lost & Found, including the “50 most unique items lost.” Some examples: * Metal leg * Tube for chugging drinks. Very expensive. * A dart that says “unleash the beast” * Some tater tots * 6 pool drains and an Employee of the Month plaque Balance of Power House of Representatives No changes this week. Democrats hold a 220-208 advantage over the GOP. Seven seats are now vacant. This gives the Dems a 12-vote advantage, meaning the majority cannot lose more than five members on any vote (if a House vote ends in a tie, the bill fails). If Republicans pick up seven or more Democratic seats in November, the balance of power would flip in the chamber. Senate The Senate is tied, with 50 Republicans and 48 Democrats, plus two Independents who caucus with the Democrats. Vice President Kamala Harris holds the tie-breaking vote. Polling President Average: 40.2% Approve, 53.6% Disapprove (Net: -13.4%) Change (in Net) from last week: Down 0.5% Recent trend: The past month has seen President Biden’s net approval drop about 2 points. Biden’s approval level is now 3 points below where President Trump’s was at this point in his term. Congress Average: 21.6% Approve, 68.4% Disapprove (Net: -46.8%) Change (in Net) from last week: No change. Recent trend: These numbers have remained fairly stable since mid-January. Generic Ballot Average: GOP +3.5 Change from last week: GOP advantage up 1.4% Recent trend: Republicans held a fairly consistent advantage in the +3s to low +4s from mid-January until mid-May. On the Calendar President President Biden is returning today from a weekend in Delaware. He will speak to the AFL-CIO Constitutional Convention in Philadelphia on Tuesday. House In Session Monday through Thursday this week. Recess the next two weeks. Senate In Session this week and next week. Upcoming Primaries Full list of primaries Tomorrow: Tuesday, June 14 * Maine * No Senate race. * House: Maine’s two House districts are quite different. In the 1st District, Chellie Pingree (D) is safe for re-election. The 2nd District, where Rep. Jared Golden (D) is running for re-election, is rated as a toss-up. His opponent will likely be former Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R), who Golden defeated in 2018 to win the seat. It is expected to be hotly contested. * Nevada * Senate: Catherine Cortez Masto (D) running for re-election; pure toss-up. Adam Laxalt (R) is a heavy favorite in the GOP primary and is likely to face Cortez Masto in November. * House: Nevada’s four House members (3 Democrats and 1 Republican) are all running for re-election. With the 3 Dem seats rated D+2, D+3, and D+3, all three of these races will be heavily contested and are potential Republican pickups. * North Dakota * Senate: John Hoeven (R) is safe for re-election. * House: Kelly Armstrong (R) is safe for re-election. * South Carolina * Senate: Tim Scott (R) is safe for re-election. * House: Reps. Nancy Mace (R) and Tom Rice (R) have been targeted by former President Trump in the primary for perceived disloyalty. South Carolina is a runoff state, so if no candidate receives over 50% of the vote, the top two will proceed to a runoff just two weeks later. In Closing… I'd love your feedback on what would be more helpful to you; more of, less of, different, etc. Please leave a comment or reply to this email with your thoughts. Thank you for listening and reading! —Eric Get full access to Get Smart Politics at getsmartpolitics.substack.com/subscribe

    11 min

  11. 06/06/2022

    Political Cheat Sheet

    Welcome to all of our new readers - we’ve got a lot on tap this week! Keep an eye out for another deep dive into a pivotal U.S. Senate race mid-week. And later in the week, you’ll have a chance to participate in a Discussion Thread - email me if you have a topic to suggest! Just click reply on this email or type it in the comments at the bottom. The Political Cheat Sheet comes out Monday mornings. We start with a high-level overview of the info in graphical form. If you don’t have time for anything else, just take a quick look every week. Save the image to your phone's photo library for quick reference until next Monday! If you want more detail, scroll past the image. What's happening this week This is your Political Cheat Sheet for the week starting Monday, June 6, 2022. Today is 155 days until the November midterm elections (about 22 weeks). We are 883 days from the 2024 Presidential election (about 29 months). Top Storylines * Biden White House struggling to find direction * An NBC News report released Tuesday described a sense of panic setting in at the White House in recent weeks. Headlined, “Inside a Biden White House adrift,” the story spells out the frustrations of both President Biden and staffers. According to their sources, Biden is “bristling at how [staffers have] tried to stifle the plain-speaking persona that has long been one of his most potent assets,” like trying to immediately walk back his off-the-cuff statements in clear contradiction of his words. Aides feel Biden has been dealt an unfair hand of consecutive crises, saying he “just can’t catch a break.” Speculation is high that Biden may shake up his staff, including replacing Chief of Staff Ron Klain. * Why this matters: We are still about five months out from the election, but the left is already starting to point fingers about who should take the blame for an electoral loss. The month of May saw the “right track/wrong track” polls plummet from -32.6% to -47.8%, and “wrong track” now stands at a whopping 70.3%. * White House staffers complaining about their bad luck with world events will not garner much sympathy from voters. President Biden ran on a platform of essentially a “return to normal,” and whether or not it’s his fault, things are most definitely not normal. * Bottom line: As the saying goes, The Buck Stops Here. This means voters will hold the President accountable whether or not everything is his fault and whether or not it’s fair. Biden and the rest of his team had better stop making excuses and start acting like they’re responsible, because voters will hold them responsible either way. * House to vote on gun bills this week * On Wednesday and Thursday, the House of Representatives plans to vote on two bills intended to address gun violence: H.R. 2377, the Federal Extreme Risk Protection Order Act of 2021, and H.R. 7910, the Protecting Our Kids Act. After last week’s contentious Judiciary Committee hearings, expect the Floor debate to get heated and the votes to fall largely along party lines. * Why this matters: Democratic leadership has taken some heat from both parties for wrapping several gun-related priorities together into H.R. 7910. If the pieces were separated into individual bills and members were forced to vote on each individual proposal, some may have a greater chance of passing and gaining bipartisan support. Wrapping them together in an omnibus gun bill risks looking like a political tactic rather than a plan to actually pass legislation. * Bottom line: Democrats will face pressure to split up the bills into smaller component parts and force multiple votes. Politically, they would be wise to do so. When many things are tied together in a big package, it makes it much easier for opponents to find a justification to vote against the entire bill. If the goal is to put maximum pressure on Republicans, they should split up the bills. * Ukraine war starting to turn in Russia’s favor * The Russia-Ukraine war crossed the 100-day mark last week. Ukraine’s early victories, both militarily and in world public opinion, left the impression among many that Ukraine had emerged victorious. In reality, Russia regrouped and turned its focus to the eastern portion of the country, and its new strategy is showing signs of success. Moscow’s new focus is a brutal war of attrition, which over time it believes it will win. Russia now controls a wide swath of southeastern Ukraine, including the Black Sea coast and the Donbas. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said last week that Russia now controls about 20% of the country. Many Ukrainian troops are reportedly demoralized amid brutal Russian tactics. * Why this matters: After the massive initial spike in interest, the conflict has faded from Americans’ consciousness. Google search results for “Ukraine” peaked on February 24 at a relative value (RV) of 100. As the chart below shows, today the RV is 2, meaning interest has dropped 98%. * Bottom line: In a drawn-out war of attrition, Ukraine risks losing the world’s attention and support. Their population and military capabilities are far less than those of Russia. President Zelensky has shown the ability to garner public attention and support in the past; he may have to dial up those efforts to secure a long-term victory. What I'm Watching Here are some of the top stories I read in the past week: * Jan. 6 committee set to make its case public with prime-time hearings * Biden lays out three-part plan to fight inflation * Issue polling on guns doesn’t match how voters actually vote * It’s voters, not lobbyists, who shape the GOP gun agenda * Professors say mass shooters overwhelmingly fit a certain profile that can be ID’d in advance * U.S. warship arrives in Stockholm for military exercises, and as a warning * Fetterman’s heart issues add wild card to key Pennsylvania Senate race * Dept. of Health and Human Services announces office of environmental justice * Governors push back on SEC climate disclosure proposal * Age distribution of the U.S. population vs. U.S. Congress * Axios maps the distribution of voter intensity on major policy issues And a fun one: * When celebrating your heroes for Memorial Day, try not to use Chinese fighter jets. Balance of Power House of Representatives No changes this week. Democrats hold a 220-208 advantage over the GOP. Seven seats are now vacant. This gives the Dems a 12-vote advantage, meaning the majority cannot lose more than five members on any vote (if a House vote ends in a tie, the bill fails). If Republicans pick up seven or more Democratic seats in November, the balance of power would flip in the chamber. Senate The Senate is tied, with 50 Republicans and 48 Democrats, plus two Independents who caucus with the Democrats. Vice President Kamala Harris holds the tie-breaking vote. Polling President Average: 40.8% Approve, 53.7% Disapprove (Net: -12.9%) Change (in Net) from last week: Down 0.7% Recent trend: The past month has seen President Biden’s net approval drop about 3 points. Biden’s approval level remains slightly below where President Trump’s was at this point in his term. Congress Average: 21.4% Approve, 68.2% Disapprove (Net: -46.8%) Change (in Net) from last week: Down 0.8% Recent trend: These numbers have remained fairly stable since mid-January. Generic Ballot Average: GOP +2.1 Change from last week: GOP advantage up 0.2% Recent trend: Republicans held a fairly consistent advantage in the +3s to low +4s from mid-January until mid-May. Since then, the gap has narrowed slightly and has leveled out around the +2 range. On the Calendar President President Biden will be in Los Angeles Wednesday and Thursday, then will make a trip to Santa Fe, New Mexico, on Saturday. House In Session Tuesday through Thursday this week. In Session Monday through Thursday next week. Senate In Session this week and next week. Upcoming Primaries Full list of primaries Tomorrow: Tuesday, June 7 * California * Senate: Alex Padilla (D) safe for election to a full term. Padilla was appointed to the seat in January 2021 by Governor Gavin Newsome when Kamala Harris resigned to accept the Vice Presidency. Safe D seat with jungle primary. All candidates are on one primary ballot, regardless of party. The top two vote-getters in the primary will face off in the November general election. * This one has a weird quirk. Since Padilla was appointed to fill out an unexpired term, he serves in that role until Californians can vote at the next general election on who will hold the seat for the completion of the term. That means Californians must vote this November 8 on who will serve out the remainder of VP Harris’s unexpired term. But that term ends on January 3, 2023, so the special election will only determine who holds the seat for about a month and a half. The election for the full six-year term for the same seat is on the same ballot; whoever wins that election will be sworn in on January 3 and serve for six years. Confused yet? * All of this will almost certainly not matter, as Padilla is expected to win both the Special and Regular elections for the seat, but it makes for quite a trivia question. * House: As the most populous state, California has the most House seats, at 52. However, the 2020 census marks the first time in its 170-year history that the state has ever lost a Congressional seat, as its growth did not keep pace with the rest of the country in the 2010s. Given its unique jungle primary system, expect several unexpected storylines to emerge. * Iowa * Senate: Chuck Grassley (R) safe for re-election. The latest Des Moines Register poll shows Grassley up 18 among likely general election voters against former Congresswoman Abby Finkenauer (D). * House: Only one of the state’s four Congressional seats has a primary battle. The 3rd District GOP primary winner will face Democrat Rep. Cindy Axne in one of the best GO

    13 min

  12. 05/30/2022

    Political Cheat Sheet

    I hope you are enjoying your Memorial Day weekend with family and loved ones. Take some time today to think about the people who have fought on our behalf to ensure we all have the right to live in a free society and speak our minds. The Political Cheat Sheet comes out Monday mornings. We start with a high-level overview of the info in graphical form. If you don’t have time for anything else, just take a quick look every week. Save the image to your phone's photo library for quick reference until next Monday! If you want more detail, scroll past the image. What's happening this week This is your Political Cheat Sheet for the week starting Monday, May 30, 2022. Today is Memorial Day, a day to recognize the sacrifices of all those who have served in the armed forces in defense of our country. Today is 162 days until the November midterm elections (about 23 weeks). We are 890 days from the 2024 Presidential election (about 29 months). Top Storylines * Gun laws take center stage * In the wake of the mass shootings in Buffalo and Uvalde, Congressional debate over gun laws has risen to a crescendo. Both the House and Senate are out of session until next week, so we are guaranteed at least one more week of positioning and negotiation before anything happens. House Dems have pledged a vote on a “red flag” law, while Senate Dems are looking for a “modest” deal on guns that could gain enough GOP support to overcome the filibuster. Some Republicans have expressed slightly more willingness to entertain these ideas than in the past, but there’s a long way to go before a deal is struck. * Why this matters: Mainstream Republican Senators are wary of anything that might mess up what looks to be a big red wave coming their way this November. If they feel like standing in the way of reform is likely to cause a backlash, expect several of them to look for a compromise to avoid it. * Bottom line: Democrats need 10 Republicans to join them in order to overcome a filibuster. This is only going to happen if the heat builds. If other news storylines crowd out the gun law reform debate, GOP Senators will feel less pressure to pass something this summer and no new gun-related laws will pass. * U.S. course change on Taiwan will have big future effects * Early last week during a press conference in Tokyo, a reporter asked President Biden if he “was willing to get involved militarily to defend Taiwan.” He responded, “yes.” This simple exchange has lit the foreign relations world afire. For decades, American Presidents have gone to extreme lengths to avoid giving such clear answers about the U.S.’s commitment to Taiwan. The effort has been so longstanding and deliberate that American policy toward Taiwan is referred to as “strategic ambiguity.” * White House officials immediately tried to walk back his statements, saying that U.S.-Taiwan policy has not changed. Biden himself did so at a press conference the next day, saying, “The policy has not changed at all.” However, explicitly committing to defend Taiwan militarily is a change in policy - and a major one, at that. Also, this is the third time in a year and a half that President Biden has said or implied he would intervene to defend Taiwan, and his pronouncements are getting stronger. * Why this matters: Taiwan and China have been mortal enemies for over 70 years. Amid the Chinese Civil War in the late 1940s, a Communist offensive drove the Chinese government to retreat to Taiwan. Since 1949, that government has considered itself the rightful Chinese government in exile, while the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has ruled China as the de facto government, eventually gaining recognition by most of the world as the actual government of China. The CCP has long promised to snuff out this last remnant of their predecessors. If the U.S. intervenes in this civil war militarily, many fear it could mean the start of World War III. * Bottom line: President Biden can say all he wants that his words do not represent a change in policy, but Beijing, Taipei, and the rest of the world see it differently. If the President of the United States, the Commander in Chief of U.S. Armed Forces, says he will intervene in a conflict between China and Taiwan, it means something. Perhaps this is the right move, perhaps wrong, but it is enormously consequential either way. * Shifting GOP dynamics on display in Georgia, Alabama primaries * Georgia Governor Brian Kemp’s 73.5% to 21.9% romp over Trump-backed David Perdue in last week’s gubernatorial primary has shifted the center of gravity for Republicans. For months, this race was one of former President Trump’s top targets, as he wished to punish Kemp for his perceived disloyalty in the 2020 election. Despite this, Kemp more than tripled Perdue’s vote. Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger was also a top Trump target, but he similarly trounced Trump-backed challenger Congressman Jody Hice 52.1% to 33.7%. * One state to the west, in Alabama, Congressman Mo Brooks earned a spot in a runoff for the GOP nomination to replace retiring Sen. Richard Shelby. He did this despite being “un-endorsed” and left for dead by Trump a few weeks ago. * Several other mixed results around the country over the past few weeks have led less-Trumpy Republicans to feel more emboldened to express a differing view from the former President for the first time in several years. * Why this matters: If President Trump is becoming the leader of a faction of the Republican Party rather than the leader of the party as a whole, it could be the first realignment in the party since he first consolidated power in 2016. For the past six years, those with differing views have been instantly sidelined and shunned, effectively killing their careers on the spot. * Bottom line: Don’t count Trump out yet. He is still by far the most popular figure within the GOP, and if he announces a re-election bid it could cause the party to coalesce behind him once more. But these results do show he is not invincible, and that at some point the party will evolve beyond his leadership. What I'm Watching Here are some of the top stories I read in the past week: * Biden’s words on Taiwan leave allies in an awkward spot * The Economist explains America’s policy of “strategic ambiguity” on Taiwan * How Brian Kemp brilliantly politically kneecapped David Perdue in Georgia Governor primary * Review of the gun-related bills currently pending in Congress * McConnell taps Cornyn to negotiate with Dems on gun legislation * House Dems plan early June vote on “red flag” proposal * Polls show no bump for Dems after Dobbs leak * Former House Speaker Paul Ryan: Lawmakers now climb the ranks of Congress by “being an entertainer” * Moneyball in Politics: How every Senator and Governor ranks according to “Popularity Above Replacement” * Outstanding take on “How Institutions Crumble” that merits a pull quote: One of the greatest challenges for a republic is whether citizens, including elites and politicians, are willing to put institutional preservation over their immediate policy and political goals. That willingness is always being tested, because people can rationalize that the institutional costs will be paid in the future while the policy and political gains may be enjoyed now. And institutional fidelity becomes particularly difficult in times of political polarization when many on each side of the aisle believe that the policies and politics of the other side are not only wrong, but evil.  And a fun one: * As an avid tennis-playing family, we take great delight in stories about Pickleballers eating their own Balance of Power House of Representatives We have a change! On Tuesday, Rep. Antonio Delgado (D-NY) submitted his resignation to accept an appointment as Lieutenant Governor of New York. His resignation was effective 4:00 p.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday. With that change, Democrats hold a 220-208 advantage over the GOP. Seven seats are now vacant. This gives the Dems a 12-vote advantage, meaning the majority cannot lose more than five members on any vote (if a House vote ends in a tie, the bill fails). If Republicans pick up seven or more Democratic seats in November, the balance of power would flip in the chamber. Senate The Senate is tied, with 50 Republicans and 48 Democrats, plus two Independents who caucus with the Democrats. Vice President Kamala Harris holds the tie-breaking vote. Polling President Average: 40.6% Approve, 54.2% Disapprove (Net: -13.6%) Change (in Net) from last week: Down 0.4% Recent trend: The past month has seen President Biden’s net approval drop about 2 points. This week Biden dropped to his lowest-ever point in the Reuters/Ipsos poll, reaching just 36% support, and only 72% among his own party. Biden’s approval level remains slightly below where President Trump’s was at this point in his term. Congress Average: 21.8% Approve, 67.8% Disapprove (Net: -42.0%) Change (in Net) from last week: Down 2.0% Recent trend: These numbers have remained fairly stable since mid-January. Generic Ballot Average: GOP +1.9 Change from last week: GOP advantage down 0.2% Recent trend: Last week the GOP advantage appeared to be slightly narrowing. After another week of polling, the Republican advantage narrowed another 0.2%. Still not enough to pronounce a trend, but we’ll keep watching. Republicans had held a fairly consistent advantage in the +3s to low +4s since mid-January. On the Calendar President President Biden is in Wilmington, Delaware today, then will be in DC the rest of the week with no public events or travel announced yet. House District Work Week. Next week is also a District Work Week. In Session again beginning Tuesday, June 7. Senate State Work Week. In session next week. Upcoming Primaries Full list of primaries Tomorrow: Tuesday, May 31 * No Primaries Next Tuesday, June 7 * California * Senate: Alex

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