Society of Professional Economists - Econ Thoughts

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Find the latest interviews with leading economists from industry, academia and policy on the Society of Professional Economists podcast.

  1. 1d ago

    Interview with Paul Collier

    Filippo Gaddo, Managing Director at Alvarez & Marsal, SPE Councillor and host of the Econ Thoughts SPE Podcast, spoke with Sir Paul Collier, Professor of Economics and Public Policy at the University of Oxford, about regional inequality, the importance of place and community, and why economics needs to rethink some of its fundamental assumptions. The discussion draws particularly on Paul’s recent book, Left Behind: A New Economics for Neglected Places while also exploring themes from The Future of Capitalism and Greed is Dead, co-authored with Sir John Kay. It ranges from the decline and renewal of former industrial regions to devolution, social capital, culture, finance and the need for new ways of thinking about economic policy. The conversation started with a central question from Left Behind: why do particular places fall behind even when the countries in which they are located continue to prosper? Paul argues that decline often begins with an economic or technological shock. Industries on which a town or region has been built can disappear or become obsolete. But the initial shock is only part of the story: as places decline relative to more successful regions, businesses, local government and communities can begin blaming one another, weakening the cooperation needed for recovery. The discussion then turns to a broader rethinking of economics. Paul highlights radical uncertainty: situations in which probabilities cannot reliably be calculated and the correct response is genuinely unknowable. In such circumstances, resilience, diversification, experimentation and learning become more important than attempting to optimise around a single forecast. Devolution can be understood in similar terms, by allowing different places to try different approaches and learn from one another. A second theme is interdependence. Economic outcomes are not simply the product of isolated individuals making independent decisions. This connects to Paul’s critique of the traditional model of homo economicus. He challenges the idea that people can adequately be understood as selfish individuals responding only to incentives. Humans are social and cooperative, and behaviour is shaped by norms, relationships and culture. Another important area is narrative economics. Paul argues that people understand economic change through narratives about how actions lead to outcomes, not through models alone. The conversation also turns to finance and regional development. Paul argues that Britain has lost much of the locally rooted, risk-bearing finance capable of identifying and supporting promising businesses outside London and the South East. Rebuilding sources of finance with local knowledge is, in his view, an important part of creating stronger regional economies. Despite the scale of the challenges, Paul ends on an optimistic note. He sees signs that economics itself is changing, with greater attention being paid to institutions, place, culture, uncertainty and social purpose. Across the conversation, a common theme emerges: prosperous economies require more than efficient markets or effective central government. They also depend on capable local institutions, relationships of trust, communities with agency and the ability to learn from successful experiments elsewhere. Sir Paul Collier is Professor of Economics and Public Policy at the Blavatnik School of Government at the University of Oxford and Oxford Academic Director of the International Growth Centre. He previously served as Director of the Development Research Group at the World Bank. His research has ranged from poverty, conflict and economic development to migration, capitalism and regional inequality. He is the author of numerous influential books, including The Bottom Billion, The Future of Capitalism and, most recently, Left Behind: A New Economics for Neglected Places, as well as Greed is Dead with Sir John Kay.

  2. Sep 14

    Interview with Alex Edmans

    Filippo Gaddo, Managing Director at Alvarez & Marsal, SPE Councillor and host of the Econ Thoughts SPE Podcast, spoke with Alex Edmans, Professor of Finance at London Business School, about behavioural finance, market efficiency and why even sophisticated investors can make seemingly irrational decisions. The discussion centres on Alex’s new book, The Madness of Markets, to be released on the 16th September, and also explores some of the connections with his previous work on evidence, responsible business and investment. The conversation begins with a fundamental question: are financial markets rational? As a good economist, Alex answers with … ‘it depends’. Markets often react quickly to relevant information, but full market efficiency is an extremely demanding standard. Investors can underreact to information that matters while simultaneously overreacting to news, narratives or fashions that have little connection to fundamentals. Importantly, these mistakes do not appear to be entirely random: many are systematic, creating patterns that investors may potentially exploit. One example is momentum. Stocks that have performed strongly over the previous few months have historically tended to continue outperforming for a period, while recent losers have tended to continue underperforming. One explanation is that investors fail to incorporate new information fully or quickly enough. Alex distinguishes between simply having access to information and understanding its implications. He compares investing to chess rather than poker: the problem may not be that the information is hidden, but that some people are better than others at interpreting the information that everybody can see. Amazon Web Services provides one example – the foundations of what became an enormously important business were visible years before investors fully appreciated their significance. Over longer periods, however, markets can display the opposite tendency: overreaction and eventual reversal. This leads Filippo and Alex to discuss whether the current enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence could constitute a bubble. Alex argues that the evidence is ambiguous. Strong recent performance might point towards over-exuberance, but valuations also need to be assessed against earnings and the underlying economic potential of AI. More broadly, he stresses that apparently irrational investment decisions cannot be judged without understanding an investor’s objectives and constraints. An investor who sells before the peak, or a fund manager who remains invested in an asset they believe to be overvalued, may have entirely rational reasons for doing so. The discussion also explores the power of narratives, social contagion and AI in investment decisions. More information does not necessarily produce better decisions. Investors can use AI and data selectively to reinforce a conclusion they have already reached rather than to challenge it. Filippo and Alex then consider the implications for public policy and financial education. Alex is cautious about government intervention in individual investment choices, but sees a strong case for better financial literacy and greater transparency. Finally, the conversation returns to themes from Alex’s earlier book Grow the Pie. Investors do not necessarily seek only financial returns; they may also pursue social or moral objectives. Alex Edmans is Professor of Finance at London Business School and a leading researcher and commentator on corporate finance, responsible business and behavioural finance. He is the author of Grow the Pie and May Contain Lies, as well as his new book The Madness of Markets. His work examines how evidence, incentives and human behaviour shape the decisions of investors, companies and policymakers.

  3. Sep 9

    Interview with Michael Munger

    Filippo Gaddo, Managing Director at Alvarez & Marsal, SPE Councillor and host of the Econ Thoughts SPE Podcast, spoke with Michael Munger, Professor of Political Science, Economics and Public Policy at Duke University, about transaction costs, regulation, the sharing economy and the continuing relevance of Adam Smith. The conversation begins with one of the central themes of Michael’s work: transaction costs. Drawing on the insights of Ronald Coase and Douglass North, Michael argues that the cost of economic activity goes well beyond the cost of producing a good or service. Consumers also face the “toil and trouble” of finding what they want, arranging an exchange and establishing sufficient trust for the transaction to take place. Michael summarises these challenges as “triangulation, transfer and trust”. Technological progress and entrepreneurship increasingly create value not simply by reducing production costs, but by removing these frictions and making exchange easier. The discussion then turns to regulation and economic growth. Michael distinguishes between uncertainty about what future rules will be and the direct burden created by existing rules. Both can raise transaction costs and discourage long-term investment. Regulatory uncertainty, changing tariffs and unpredictable policy can shorten investment horizons, while complex planning, permitting and administrative requirements can make worthwhile projects prohibitively slow or expensive. Filippo and Michael also explore the economics of platforms and the sharing economy, themes developed in Michael’s books Tomorrow 3.0 and The Sharing Economy. Platforms such as Uber lower transaction costs by allowing people who have something to offer to find people who want it quickly and reliably. In doing so, they can reduce the need for ownership and long-term contractual relationships, potentially allowing conventional firms to become smaller. But there is a paradox: while platforms decentralise economic activity, the platforms themselves can become extremely large because of network effects, economies of scale and the accumulated reputations of their users. The final part of the conversation marks the 250th anniversary of Adam Smith’s The Wealth of Nations. Michael argues that The Wealth of Nations should not be read separately from The Theory of Moral Sentiments. Smith’s account of commercial society depends not only on self-interest and exchange, but also on trust, reputation, sympathy and our concern for the judgement of others. These moral foundations themselves reduce transaction costs and make complex economic cooperation possible. For Michael, this also points to a weakness in how economists have sometimes defended markets and free trade. Economics has too often emphasised aggregate gains while paying insufficient attention to those who lose from economic change. Trade and the division of labour can increase overall prosperity, but they create the potential for everyone to be better off rather than guaranteeing that every individual will benefit. Recovering Smith therefore means reconnecting the extraordinary productive power of commercial society with the moral concerns at the heart of his wider intellectual project. Michael Munger is Professor of Political Science at Duke University, with joint appointments in Economics and Public Policy, and holds the Pfizer/Pratt University Distinguished Professorship. His research focuses on markets, regulation, political economy and government institutions. He received his PhD in Economics from Washington University in St Louis and previously worked as a staff economist at the US Federal Trade Commission. He is a former President of the Public Choice Society and currently President of the Philadelphia Society. His books include Choosing in Groups, Tomorrow 3.0 and The Sharing Economy, and he hosts the podcast The Answer is Transaction Costs

  4. Sep 1

    Interview with Branko Milanovic

    Filippo Gaddo, Managing Director at Alvarez & Marsal, SPE Councillor and host of the Econ Thoughts SPE Podcast, spoke with Branko Milanovic, Research Professor at the Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality at the CUNY Graduate Center and Visiting Professor at the LSE’s International Inequalities Institute, about global inequality, the changing structure of capitalism and the emergence of a new international economic order. The discussion draws in particular on Branko’s latest book, The Great Global Transformation: National Market Liberalism in a Multipolar World (Amazon UK).  The conversation begins with Branko’s long-standing work on global inequality and the remarkable transformation of the global income distribution over the past three decades. The rapid growth of China, and subsequently India, helped reduce global inequality substantially and created a much larger global middle class. The rise of Asia has not simply changed relative incomes; it has changed relative economic and political power. People in Western countries increasingly compete for globally priced goods and assets with a much larger and wealthier Asian middle class, while China’s economic rise has transformed the balance of geopolitical power. The conversation then turns to inequality within advanced economies and Branko’s concept of “homoplutia”: a new elite whose members combine high labour incomes with significant capital income. Unlike the traditional capitalist class, this group is simultaneously rich through work, skills and ownership. Filippo and Branko discuss whether this represents genuine meritocracy or whether inherited wealth, access to elite education and the transmission of advantages between generations risk creating a more closed elite with growing political influence. The discussion then broadens to the central argument of The Great Global Transformation. Branko argues that the economic order associated with the era of globalisation is giving way to what he calls “national market liberalism”. Market-oriented policies, private enterprise and deregulation can continue domestically, while international economic relations become increasingly mercantilist — characterised by tariffs, industrial policy, economic security and geopolitical competition. In this interpretation, the rise of China has made it increasingly difficult to maintain an international system built around both unrestricted global markets and US geopolitical dominance. Filippo and Branko discuss whether such a system is internally coherent and sustainable. Finally, the conversation looks at what these changes could mean for the welfare state, trade policy and artificial intelligence. On AI, he expects technological change to increase the share of income accruing to capital and potentially displace some forms of labour, although he cautions against assuming that the total quantity of jobs is fixed. The more difficult challenge may be the speed of adjustment. Branko Milanovic is Research Professor at the Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality at the CUNY Graduate Center and Visiting Professor at the International Inequalities Institute at the London School of Economics. He previously spent almost twenty years as Lead Economist in the World Bank’s Research Department and is one of the world’s leading scholars of global income inequality. His books include Global Inequality: A New Approach for the Age of Globalization (Amazon UK), Capitalism, Alone: The Future of the System That Rules the World (Amazon UK), Visions of Inequality: From the French Revolution to the End of the Cold War (Amazon UK), The World Under Capitalism: Observations on Economics, Politics, History, and Culture (Amazon UK) and, most recently, The Great Global Transformation (Amazon UK). He is also closely associated with the influential “elephant curve”, illustrating how the gains from globalisation were distributed across the global income distribution.

  5. Jun 8

    Interview with Jesús Fernández-Villaverde

    Filippo Gaddo, Managing Director at Alvarez & Marsal, SPE Councillor and host of the Econ Thoughts SPE Podcast, speaks with Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, Professor of Economics at the University of Pennsylvania, Research Associate at the NBER and one of the leading voices on macroeconomics, demographics and geoeconomics. The conversation begins with one of the most profound but often overlooked trends shaping the global economy: demographic decline. Jesús argues that the world has already crossed a historic threshold. Since around 2023, global fertility has fallen below replacement levels, meaning humanity is no longer reproducing itself at a rate sufficient to sustain population growth indefinitely. While population momentum means global numbers may continue to rise for several decades, he suggests that world population could begin declining around the middle of the century. The discussion explores why fertility has fallen so rapidly across such a wide range of countries. What makes the current trend particularly striking is that it is no longer confined to advanced economies. Countries such as Chile, Colombia, Turkey and Thailand now exhibit fertility rates that would once have been associated only with the richest nations. Jesús outlines several possible explanations. The consequences extend far beyond economics. Demographic decline will reshape labour markets, public finances, housing demand, education systems and social structures. While well-governed countries may be able to adapt, Jesús argues that the challenge could prove particularly severe for countries with weaker institutions and lower state capacity. The conversation then turns to policy. The second half of the discussion explores geoeconomics and the future of globalisation. Drawing on his work on global fragmentation, Jesús explains how a broad range of economic and political indicators suggest that the era of ever-deeper global integration began to reverse around the time of the Global Financial Crisis. Rather than a sudden break, he describes fragmentation as a gradual process that has unfolded over nearly two decades. Importantly, he argues that globalisation is not disappearing but evolving into a more fragmented system organised around competing economic blocs. Countries may remain highly integrated within regions while becoming less connected across geopolitical fault lines. This perspective leads to a broader discussion of Brexit, Trump, European politics and the relationship between long-term structural forces and political outcomes. Jesús argues that major political events are often better understood as manifestations of deeper economic and social trends rather than their primary causes. Political leaders matter, but they operate within constraints created by demographic, economic and institutional forces that may have been building for years. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde is the Howard Marks Presidential Professor of Economics at the University of Pennsylvania, where he serves as the Director of the Penn Initiative for the Study of Markets and co-director of the Business, Economic, and Financial History Project. He is also a Visiting Professor at the University of Oxford, the John H. Makin Visiting Scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, a visiting scholar at the European Central Bank and Bank of Spain, a fellow at Collegium Institute, a non-resident fellow at the Civitas Institute at the University of Texas at Austin, and a member of the National Bureau of Economic Research and the Center for Economic Policy Research. Additionally, he is a fellow of the Econometric Society. His research agenda is in macroeconomics and econometrics, with a focus on the computation and estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models.

  6. May 11

    Interview with Tim Congdon

    Filippo Gaddo, Managing Director at Alvarez & Marsal, SPE Councillor and host of the Econ Thoughts SPE Podcast, spoke with Professor Tim Congdon CBE about money, inflation and the lessons of the post-Covid monetary policy episode. http://timcongdon.com/ The discussion centred on Professor Congdon’s latest book, Money and Inflation at the Time of Covid, in which he argues that the inflation surge of the early 2020s was not primarily the result of supply shocks, energy prices or fiscal stimulus alone, but of the rapid growth of broad money following the emergency policy response to the pandemic. In the conversation, Professor Congdon explained why he warned as early as spring 2020 that the expansion of money supply would lead, with a lag, first to asset price inflation and then to higher consumer price inflation. The interview explored Professor Congdon’s long-standing monetarist approach, including his emphasis on broad money rather than narrow money or central bank interest rates alone. He argued that much modern macroeconomics has become too focused on interest rates, fiscal deficits and labour-market explanations of inflation, while paying insufficient attention to bank deposits, credit creation, asset prices and the monetary consequences of quantitative easing and tightening. The discussion also covered the period after the global financial crisis, the role of tighter bank regulation in suppressing broad money growth, the shift from QE to quantitative tightening in 2022, and why inflation fell without the severe recession many economists had expected. Looking ahead, Professor Congdon warned that current US money growth and fiscal dynamics could point to a period of inflation above the 2% target, while he was more relaxed about the UK’s monetary position but concerned about the sustainability of public finances. Professor Tim Congdon CBE is one of the UK’s best-known monetary economists and a long-standing commentator on inflation, money and banking. He founded Lombard Street Research, the City macroeconomic consultancy, and is Chairman of the Institute of International Monetary Research. His recent book, Money and Inflation at the Time of Covid, was published by Edward Elgar in 2025 and sets out his interpretation of the inflationary episode that followed the pandemic.

  7. Apr 19

    Interview with Alejandro Chafuen

    Filippo Gaddo, Managing Director at Alvarez & Marsal, SPE Councillor and host of the Econ Thoughts SPE Podcast, spoke with Alejandro Chafuen, Distinguished Executive Fellow at the Acton Institute and former President and CEO of the Atlas Network (see https://www.chafuen.com/), about the rediscovery of the School of Salamanca and its relevance for both the history of economic thought and contemporary policy debates. The discussion focused on the School of Salamanca as a remarkably innovative intellectual movement of the 16th and early 17th centuries, predating and in many ways anticipating later developments in economics. Alejandro highlighted how scholars such as Francisco de Vitoria and Juan de Mariana built a rich framework grounded in natural law and a deep understanding of the human person, arriving at insights on subjective value, private property, free trade, and sound money centuries before classical economics. Rather than abstract theorising, their work emerged from practical moral and commercial questions—often debated in the confessional—leading to early forms of economic analysis recognised even by Joseph Schumpeter. The conversation emphasised how this rediscovery reshapes the narrative of economic thought, showing continuity between scholastic reasoning and later traditions, including elements that resonate with the Austrian School of Economics. https://mises.org/mises-wire/true-founders-economics-school-salamanca Looking forward, Chafuen argued that the relevance of the Salamanca tradition lies less in technical economics and more in political economy—particularly its emphasis on the moral foundations of markets, the centrality of the human person, and the importance of institutions such as the rule of law. In a modern context where economics can appear overly mechanical, the School of Salamanca offers a more integrated framework linking ethics, institutions, and economic outcomes. Its renewed study, he suggested, reflects a broader search for meaning and purpose in economics, and provides valuable guidance for contemporary debates on monetary policy, state power, and the conditions for a flourishing free society. Alejandro Chafuen is a Distinguished Executive Fellow at the Acton Institute and Chairman of the Chase Foundation of Virginia. He previously served as President and CEO of the Atlas Network and has devoted much of his work to promoting the principles of a free and virtuous society, with a particular focus on the intellectual legacy of the School of Salamanca and its contribution to modern economic thought. See his book: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Faith-Liberty-Scholastics-Economics-2003-07-01/dp/B01A0BCHZE

  8. Mar 30

    Interview with Abby Hall

    Filippo Gaddo, Managing Director at Alvarez & Marsal, SPE Councillor and host of the Econ Thoughts SPE Podcast, spoke with Abby Hall, Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Tampa, and author together with Christopher Coyne of Austrian Economics: An Introduction, available here about Austrian economics, its evolution, and how its insights can still be applied to current economic and policy debates. In the conversation Abby explained that Austrian economics is best understood as a distinct tradition of economic thought that emerged from Carl Menger and the Methodenstreit, and later developed through figures such as Eugen von Böhm-Bawerk, Ludwig von Mises, Friedrich Hayek and, more recently, Israel Kirzner. She set out the school’s core themes: methodological individualism, subjectivism, purposive human action, the limits of knowledge, and a focus on processes rather than static equilibria. As she put it, Austrian economics is concerned less with fixed end states than with an “unfolding” process of coordination and discovery, in which prices, profit and loss, and private property help individuals adjust to changing circumstances. A central theme of the conversation was how Austrian economics approaches policy. Abby noted that the tradition often produces scepticism about ambitious top-down intervention, not because it offers a rigid ideological programme, but because it emphasises how little any one actor or institution can know. Her discussion of Mises’s example of price controls, and of Hayek’s idea of spontaneous order, illustrated the Austrian concern with unintended consequences and the limits of central direction. She also highlighted the tradition’s lasting influence on the wider profession, arguing that ideas once distinctive to Austrian economics, including the importance of institutions, entrepreneurship, subjectivism and comparative institutional analysis, have since travelled well beyond the school itself. One of her most memorable lines was Peter Boettke’s phrase that “markets are like weeds”: they emerge repeatedly, even under adverse conditions. The final part of the interview turned to Hall’s work on the political economy of conflict, terrorism and counter-terrorism. She explained how an Austrian lens changes the analysis by shifting attention away from abstract entities such as “the state” and back to individuals making choices within institutional constraints. That perspective, she argued, is especially useful in studying terrorism, counter-terrorism and war, where good data are often limited but where means-ends reasoning can still illuminate how actors adapt to incentives and changing constraints. In discussing the contemporary international environment, Hall connected this framework to current tensions around US foreign policy, executive power and the risks of progressive intervention, suggesting that military action can vividly demonstrate the Austrian concern that one intervention often leads to further, unintended consequences. Abby Hall is Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Tampa. She is also a Senior Fellow at the Independent Institute and a Senior Affiliated Scholar with the Mercatus Center at George Mason University. She received her PhD in Economics from George Mason University, and her research focuses on Austrian economics, political economy, defence and peace economics, and the economics of militarism and US foreign policy. Her recent books include How to Run Wars: A Confidential Playbook for the National Security Elite (2024), with Christopher Coyne, and The Political Economy of Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and the War on Terror (2023), with Anne Bradley and Christopher Coyne.

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