Society of Professional Economists - Econ Thoughts

Society of Professional Economists

Find the latest interviews with leading economists from industry, academia and policy on the Society of Professional Economists podcast.

  1. May 11

    Interview with Tim Congdon

    Filippo Gaddo, Managing Director at Alvarez & Marsal, SPE Councillor and host of the Econ Thoughts SPE Podcast, spoke with Professor Tim Congdon CBE about money, inflation and the lessons of the post-Covid monetary policy episode. http://timcongdon.com/ The discussion centred on Professor Congdon’s latest book, Money and Inflation at the Time of Covid, in which he argues that the inflation surge of the early 2020s was not primarily the result of supply shocks, energy prices or fiscal stimulus alone, but of the rapid growth of broad money following the emergency policy response to the pandemic. In the conversation, Professor Congdon explained why he warned as early as spring 2020 that the expansion of money supply would lead, with a lag, first to asset price inflation and then to higher consumer price inflation. The interview explored Professor Congdon’s long-standing monetarist approach, including his emphasis on broad money rather than narrow money or central bank interest rates alone. He argued that much modern macroeconomics has become too focused on interest rates, fiscal deficits and labour-market explanations of inflation, while paying insufficient attention to bank deposits, credit creation, asset prices and the monetary consequences of quantitative easing and tightening. The discussion also covered the period after the global financial crisis, the role of tighter bank regulation in suppressing broad money growth, the shift from QE to quantitative tightening in 2022, and why inflation fell without the severe recession many economists had expected. Looking ahead, Professor Congdon warned that current US money growth and fiscal dynamics could point to a period of inflation above the 2% target, while he was more relaxed about the UK’s monetary position but concerned about the sustainability of public finances. Professor Tim Congdon CBE is one of the UK’s best-known monetary economists and a long-standing commentator on inflation, money and banking. He founded Lombard Street Research, the City macroeconomic consultancy, and is Chairman of the Institute of International Monetary Research. His recent book, Money and Inflation at the Time of Covid, was published by Edward Elgar in 2025 and sets out his interpretation of the inflationary episode that followed the pandemic.

    41 min

  2. Apr 19

    Interview with Alejandro Chafuen

    Filippo Gaddo, Managing Director at Alvarez & Marsal, SPE Councillor and host of the Econ Thoughts SPE Podcast, spoke with Alejandro Chafuen, Distinguished Executive Fellow at the Acton Institute and former President and CEO of the Atlas Network (see https://www.chafuen.com/), about the rediscovery of the School of Salamanca and its relevance for both the history of economic thought and contemporary policy debates. The discussion focused on the School of Salamanca as a remarkably innovative intellectual movement of the 16th and early 17th centuries, predating and in many ways anticipating later developments in economics. Alejandro highlighted how scholars such as Francisco de Vitoria and Juan de Mariana built a rich framework grounded in natural law and a deep understanding of the human person, arriving at insights on subjective value, private property, free trade, and sound money centuries before classical economics. Rather than abstract theorising, their work emerged from practical moral and commercial questions—often debated in the confessional—leading to early forms of economic analysis recognised even by Joseph Schumpeter. The conversation emphasised how this rediscovery reshapes the narrative of economic thought, showing continuity between scholastic reasoning and later traditions, including elements that resonate with the Austrian School of Economics. https://mises.org/mises-wire/true-founders-economics-school-salamanca Looking forward, Chafuen argued that the relevance of the Salamanca tradition lies less in technical economics and more in political economy—particularly its emphasis on the moral foundations of markets, the centrality of the human person, and the importance of institutions such as the rule of law. In a modern context where economics can appear overly mechanical, the School of Salamanca offers a more integrated framework linking ethics, institutions, and economic outcomes. Its renewed study, he suggested, reflects a broader search for meaning and purpose in economics, and provides valuable guidance for contemporary debates on monetary policy, state power, and the conditions for a flourishing free society. Alejandro Chafuen is a Distinguished Executive Fellow at the Acton Institute and Chairman of the Chase Foundation of Virginia. He previously served as President and CEO of the Atlas Network and has devoted much of his work to promoting the principles of a free and virtuous society, with a particular focus on the intellectual legacy of the School of Salamanca and its contribution to modern economic thought. See his book: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Faith-Liberty-Scholastics-Economics-2003-07-01/dp/B01A0BCHZE

    35 min

  3. Mar 30

    Interview with Abby Hall

    Filippo Gaddo, Managing Director at Alvarez & Marsal, SPE Councillor and host of the Econ Thoughts SPE Podcast, spoke with Abby Hall, Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Tampa, and author together with Christopher Coyne of Austrian Economics: An Introduction, available here about Austrian economics, its evolution, and how its insights can still be applied to current economic and policy debates. In the conversation Abby explained that Austrian economics is best understood as a distinct tradition of economic thought that emerged from Carl Menger and the Methodenstreit, and later developed through figures such as Eugen von Böhm-Bawerk, Ludwig von Mises, Friedrich Hayek and, more recently, Israel Kirzner. She set out the school’s core themes: methodological individualism, subjectivism, purposive human action, the limits of knowledge, and a focus on processes rather than static equilibria. As she put it, Austrian economics is concerned less with fixed end states than with an “unfolding” process of coordination and discovery, in which prices, profit and loss, and private property help individuals adjust to changing circumstances. A central theme of the conversation was how Austrian economics approaches policy. Abby noted that the tradition often produces scepticism about ambitious top-down intervention, not because it offers a rigid ideological programme, but because it emphasises how little any one actor or institution can know. Her discussion of Mises’s example of price controls, and of Hayek’s idea of spontaneous order, illustrated the Austrian concern with unintended consequences and the limits of central direction. She also highlighted the tradition’s lasting influence on the wider profession, arguing that ideas once distinctive to Austrian economics, including the importance of institutions, entrepreneurship, subjectivism and comparative institutional analysis, have since travelled well beyond the school itself. One of her most memorable lines was Peter Boettke’s phrase that “markets are like weeds”: they emerge repeatedly, even under adverse conditions. The final part of the interview turned to Hall’s work on the political economy of conflict, terrorism and counter-terrorism. She explained how an Austrian lens changes the analysis by shifting attention away from abstract entities such as “the state” and back to individuals making choices within institutional constraints. That perspective, she argued, is especially useful in studying terrorism, counter-terrorism and war, where good data are often limited but where means-ends reasoning can still illuminate how actors adapt to incentives and changing constraints. In discussing the contemporary international environment, Hall connected this framework to current tensions around US foreign policy, executive power and the risks of progressive intervention, suggesting that military action can vividly demonstrate the Austrian concern that one intervention often leads to further, unintended consequences. Abby Hall is Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Tampa. She is also a Senior Fellow at the Independent Institute and a Senior Affiliated Scholar with the Mercatus Center at George Mason University. She received her PhD in Economics from George Mason University, and her research focuses on Austrian economics, political economy, defence and peace economics, and the economics of militarism and US foreign policy. Her recent books include How to Run Wars: A Confidential Playbook for the National Security Elite (2024), with Christopher Coyne, and The Political Economy of Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and the War on Terror (2023), with Anne Bradley and Christopher Coyne.

    44 min

  4. Mar 18

    Interview with Felix Salmon

    Filippo Gaddo, Managing Director at Alvarez & Marsal, SPE Councillor and host of the Econ Thoughts SPE Podcast, spoke with Felix Salmon, senior writer on Bloomberg’s Ideas and Culture desk and author of The Phoenix Economy, about how COVID reshaped the global economy and what it means to live in a world of persistent uncertainty. https://www.felixsalmon.com/ Salmon argues that the pandemic marked a decisive break from the pre-2020 “new normal” of stability and predictability, ushering in what he terms the “new not normal” — a world defined by volatility, fat-tail risks, and the absence of any stable equilibrium. In this environment, long-held assumptions about markets, policy, and geopolitics are constantly being overturned, requiring a shift in mindset from long-term certainty to adaptability and “strong opinions, weakly held.” This has implications not only for investors — where shorter-term, trader-style approaches may increasingly dominate — but also for politics, where short-termism and volatility are crowding out traditional statecraft. At the same time, Salmon emphasises that this disruption has been creative as well as destructive. The “Phoenix economy” reflects the idea that the post-pandemic world, though less stable, offers greater upside, flexibility, and innovation — from rapid advances in digital infrastructure to new ways of working and organising economic activity. Yet these gains are unevenly distributed, favouring the adaptable and fortunate while exposing others to greater downside risk, both within and across countries. Looking ahead, Salmon highlights the possibility that technological change — particularly AI — could prove unexpectedly positive, potentially boosting employment and productivity, even as markets remain alert to volatility and potential corrections. Felix Salmon is a senior writer at Bloomberg and host of the Slate Money podcast. He has previously worked at Reuters and Axios, and is the author of The Phoenix Economy: Work, Life, and Money in the New Not Normal, and is a speaker at the forthcoming Weekend of Mistakes event https://www.weekendofmistakes.org/

    37 min

  5. Feb 26

    Interview with Eric Leeper

    Filippo Gaddo, Managing Director at Alvarez & Marsal, SPE Councillor and host of the Econ Thoughts SPE Podcast, spoke with Eric Leeper, Paul Goodloe McIntire Professor of Economics at the University of Virginia, about the fiscal theory of the price level, fiscal dominance and the future of monetary policy in a high-debt world. In the conversation, Eric explains the core intuition behind the fiscal theory of the price level: inflation is not solely a monetary phenomenon but also reflects how government debt is backed (or not) by future primary surpluses. Drawing on his long-standing research, including his seminal work on active and passive policy regimes, he argues that when fiscal authorities run persistent deficits without credible plans to stabilise debt, monetary policy alone cannot anchor the price level. The post-COVID fiscal expansion, he suggests, offers a practical illustration of how large, debt-financed transfers — perceived as “gifts” rather than future tax liabilities — can shift expectations and generate inflationary pressures Eric also discusses the steady drift towards fiscal dominance in the United States and the erosion of what he calls the “Hamilton norm” — the principle that deficits should ultimately be matched by future surpluses. He highlights the growing tension between stabilising inflation and stabilising public debt: when debt levels are high, raising interest rates to curb inflation mechanically increases debt-service costs, creating political and institutional strain. In his view, central banks cannot credibly deliver price stability in isolation if fiscal authorities do not restore a sustainable path for public finances. Looking ahead, the discussion turns to the future of Federal Reserve leadership and the limits of central bank independence. Eric argues that truly independent monetary policy requires more candid acknowledgement of fiscal realities. Without clearer fiscal commitments, inflation control may require difficult trade-offs — or painful market discipline — before policy regimes revert to a more stable monetary-dominant equilibrium. Eric Leeper is Paul Goodloe McIntire Professor of Economics at the University of Virginia, a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research, and a Visiting Scholar at the Mercatus Center. He has served as an external adviser to the Sveriges Riksbank and as a member of the Research Council of the Deutsche Bundesbank. His research focuses on the interaction of monetary and fiscal policy, inflation dynamics and sovereign debt sustainability.

    42 min

  6. Feb 16

    Interview with Brad Stetser

    Filippo Gaddo, Managing Director at Alvarez & Marsal, SPE Councillor and host of the EconThoughts SPE Podcast, spoke with Brad Setser, the Whitney Shepardson Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and former senior official at the US Treasury and the Office of the US Trade Representative, about China’s growth model, global trade imbalances, and the evolving responses in the US, Europe, and the UK. Brad argued that China’s economic slowdown has been driven less by Covid than by the prolonged collapse of the property sector since 2021, which has left domestic demand weak, consumer confidence fragile, and household savings stuck at an unusually high level. In this context, China has increasingly relied on exports to meet its growth targets, with net exports contributing an exceptionally large share of reported growth—particularly through manufacturing strength in sectors such as electric vehicles, batteries, and clean technologies. While this export-led strategy has so far proven resilient, Brad stressed that it is inherently unstable, as it depends on the rest of the world continuing to absorb ever-larger Chinese trade surpluses, raising the risk of a sharper external backlash over time. The discussion then turned to trade policy, inflation, and regional responses. Brad was sceptical that recent US tariffs have meaningfully constrained China, noting that much trade has been diverted through third countries rather than reduced outright. Crucially, he argued that tariffs have not generated the inflation spike many predicted: their impact has been closer to that of a consumption tax, temporarily reducing purchasing power, with a significant share of the cost absorbed by firms rather than passed through to consumer prices. On Europe and the UK, Setser observed that responses to Chinese overcapacity have so far been cautious and fragmented. The EU has acted selectively—such as with tariffs on electric vehicles—but remains constrained by internal political economy considerations, while the UK’s renewed engagement with China reflects pragmatic economic calculation rather than a fundamental strategic shift. Looking ahead, Brad suggested that Europe could become pivotal: a firmer European stance on trade imbalances could restore leverage that the US weakened through an overly abrupt escalation of tariffs. Overall, he argued that a return to the pre-2016 free-trade status quo is unlikely; instead, the global economy is moving toward persistently higher and more targeted trade barriers, especially vis-à-vis China, shaped by geopolitics as much as by economics. Brad W. Setser is the Whitney Shepardson senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). His expertise includes global trade and capital flows, financial vulnerability analysis, and sovereign debt restructuring. He regularly blogs at Follow the Money. Setser served as a senior advisor to the United States Trade Representative from 2021 to 2022, where he worked on the resolution of a number of trade disputes. He had previously served as the deputy assistant secretary for international economic analysis in the U.S. Treasury from 2011 to 2015, where he worked on Europe’s financial crisis, currency policy, financial sanctions, commodity shocks, and Puerto Rico’s debt crisis, and as a director for international economics on the staff of the National Economic Council and the National Security Council. He is the author of Sovereign Wealth and Sovereign Power (CFR, 2008) and the coauthor, with Nouriel Roubini, of Bailouts and Bail-ins: Responding to Financial Crises in Emerging Economies (Peterson Institute, 2004). Setser was a senior fellow at CFR from 2016 to 2020, a fellow from 2007 to 2009, and an international affairs fellow in 2003. He also has been a visiting scholar at the International Monetary Fund. He holds a BA from Harvard University, a masters from Sciences-Po Paris, and an MA and PhD in international relations from Oxford University.

    41 min

  7. Feb 11

    Interview with Eamonn Butler

    Filippo Gaddo, Managing Director at Alvarez & Marsal, SPE Councillor and host of the Econ Thoughts SPE Podcast, spoke with Eamonn Butler, co-founder and long-time director of the Adam Smith Institute, in a wide-ranging conversation marking the 250th anniversary of The Wealth of Nations. Eamonn and Filippo reflected on the enduring legacy of Adam Smith, arguing that Smith’s core insight—that prosperity is driven by voluntary exchange, competition and individual effort—remains as relevant today as it was in 1776. He traced how Smith helped overturn mercantilist thinking, laid the foundations of modern economics as a discipline grounded in observation and reason, and influenced both policy and practice, from 19th-century free trade to contemporary debates on protectionism, economic nationalism and the politicisation of trade. Butler warned that while economists broadly agree on the gains from free markets, political incentives increasingly pull policy in the opposite direction, often to the detriment of consumers, productivity and long-term growth. This is in full display in policies adopted on both side of the Atlantic The discussion also ranged across Butler’s long-standing interest in economic ideas and entrepreneurship. Drawing on his book on schools of economic thought—discussed during the interview and available at the IEA —he argued for the value of pluralism in economics, from classical liberalism and Keynesianism to the Austrian and Chicago schools, each offering different lenses on incentives, cycles and individual decision-making. Butler emphasised that economies are not machines driven by aggregates, but ecosystems shaped by entrepreneurs, confidence and incentives, with taxation and regulation playing a decisive role. Looking ahead, he outlined how the Adam Smith Institute is marking the anniversary year, including a forthcoming edited academic volume and his own innovative contribution: a graphic-novel adaptation of The Wealth of Nations, designed to bring Smith’s ideas to a new and younger audience. Together, the conversation offered both a timely defence of Smithian principles and a reminder of their practical relevance for growth, opportunity and poverty reduction in the modern world. Eamonn Butler is Director of the Adam Smith Institute and has degrees in economics, philosophy and psychology, gaining a PhD from the University of St Andrews in 1978. During the 1970s he worked on pensions and welfare issues for the US House of Representatives, and taught philosophy in Hillsdale College, Michigan, before returning to the UK to help found the Adam Smith Institute. Eamonn is author of books on the pioneering economists Milton Friedman, F A Hayek, Ludwig von Mises and Adam Smith, and co-author of Forty Centuries of Wage and Price Controls and books on intelligence testing. He contributes to the leading UK print and broadcast media on current issues, and his recent popular publications The Best Book on the Market, The Rotten State of Britain and The Alternative Manifesto have attracted considerable attention. He has also contributed articles to national magazines and newspapers on subjects ranging from health policy, economic management, taxation and public spending, transport, pensions, and welfare.

    35 min

  8. Jan 28

    Interview with Mark Blyth

    Filippo Gaddo, Managing Director at Alvarez and Marsal, SPE Councillor and host of the Econ Thoughts SPE Podcast, spoke with Mark Blyth, William R. Rhodes Professor of International Economics at Brown University and author of numerous books on the topics of inflation, austerity and growth. The last twenty years have seen two major shocks to the global and national economies, with profound political and social consequences, in particular the rise of populist sentiments and parties. Changes in the industrial landscape and the recent surge in inflation have been part of the explanation for such trends but there is much more to it. Mark Blyth joined the SPE podcast to provide his insights which he highlighted in two books, Inflation: A Guide for Users and Losers (2025), and Angrynomics (2020). The discussion opens with Mark’s analysis of the post-pandemic inflation surge, drawing on his recent book Inflation: A Guide for Users and Losers. Mark challenges the view that inflation was primarily a monetary phenomenon, instead arguing that it reflected overlapping global supply shocks—from broken supply chains to Europe’s energy crisis—with sharply uneven distributional effects. A central theme is the disconnect between how economists measure inflation and how households experience it, particularly through persistent increases in the price level of essentials such as food, rent, and energy. Mark explains why this gap has had powerful political consequences, even as headline inflation has fallen, and why central banks’ traditional tools were poorly suited to addressing the underlying causes. The conversation then turns to Angrynomics and the economic roots of populism. Mark argues that today’s political anger is best understood through long-running patterns of wage stagnation, deindustrialisation, and regional divergence, rather than purely cultural explanations. Filippo and Mark explore how globalisation and financialisaton weakened labour power, increased economic fragility for large parts of the population, and eroded dignity and purpose—dynamics that inflation has only intensified. The episode closes with a forward-looking discussion on what might ease these pressures, including higher and more inclusive growth, large-scale housing construction, skills investment, and reforms that restore mobility and opportunity—offering a clear-eyed account of why economic shocks matter politically and what it would take to rebuild resilience and trust in democratic capitalism. Mark Blyth is the William R. Rhodes ’57 Professor of International Economics and the Director of the Rhodes Centre for International Economics and Finance at the Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University. He holds a joint appointment in the department of political science. He is the author of many award-winning books including, Austerity: The History of a Dangerous Idea (New York: Oxford University Press 2015), Angrynomics (New York: Columbia University Press 2020), Diminishing Returns: The New Politics of Growth and Stagnation (Oxford University Press 2022), and in 2025, Inflation: A Guide for Users and Losers. He writes about the politics of growth, distribution and decarbonization and why people continue to believe dubious economic ideas despite buckets of evidence to the contrary.

    40 min
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