Episode 65 is with Luke Connell (CarbonRun), Trish Nixon (Amplify), and Brandon Vlaar (Mangrove Systems) recorded live during Toronto Climate Week For this special Toronto Climate Week wrap-up, Na’im sits down in person with three of the sharpest minds in the Toronto climate scene, each bringing a different vantage point on where carbon removal really stands. Trish Nixon (Venture Partner at Amplify Capital) brings the finance and capital side, Brandon Vlaar (CEO of Mangrove Systems) brings measurement and verification, and Luke Connell (CEO of CarbonRun) brings the supplier and operator side. A year after many feared the bottom would fall out of climate, the conversation is candid about the headwinds: a venture market that cannot scale this sector alone, a punishing “missing middle” in project finance, and an affordability lens now applied to every climate policy. At the same time, the panel makes the case that the structural foundations for a durable market are further along than the vibes suggest. It is an honest look at the valley of death ahead, and the real opportunity waiting for the companies that make it to the other side. In this episode, we discuss: * Whether the sector feels better or worse than a year ago, and why we are “over the hype cycle” * The “missing middle” in project finance, and why venture was the wrong tool to scale an infrastructure-heavy market * Canada as a safe haven for carbon removal: real advantage or comforting story? * CarbonRun’s first verified river alkalinity enhancement credits, and how audits expose optimistic models fast * The role of MRV and VVBs in reducing friction from operational activity to revenue * Consolidation ahead for a field of roughly 1,100 permanent-CDR companies, and why that can be healthy * The affordability trap, the move from “desktop to deployment,” and what success looks like five years out Guests Trish Nixon, Venture Partner, Amplify Capital. Trish is a climate-finance leader with roots in project finance and impact investing. She co-led CoPower, a clean-energy fintech, through its acquisition by Vancity, then served as Managing Director of Climate Finance at VCIB. At Amplify Capital she invests in early-stage climate and health ventures, and she also advises companies in the space, including CarbonRun. Brandon Vlaar, CEO & Co-Founder, Mangrove Systems. Brandon is a repeat founder who came up through Canadian fintech, co-founding Lending Loop, the country’s first peer-to-peer lending platform, before turning to climate. He launched Mangrove Systems in 2022, and today it builds digital MRV (dMRV) software trusted by some of the largest carbon projects in the world, spanning carbon removal, carbon capture, low-carbon fuels, and super-pollutants. Luke Connell, CEO & Co-Founder, CarbonRun. Luke is an entrepreneur whose career has bridged social impact and commercialization before he found his way to carbon dioxide removal in 2020. He now leads CarbonRun, the Nova Scotia company pioneering river alkalinity enhancement: adding finely ground limestone to acidified rivers to restore them while permanently converting atmospheric CO₂ into stable ocean bicarbonate. Under Luke, CarbonRun recently issued its first verified credits. Referenced in this episode * CarbonRun * Mangrove Systems * Amplify Capital * Carbon Removal Canada * Toronto Climate Week This episode was made possible thanks to the generous support of the Consecon Foundation. This episode was created and published by Na’im Merchant. Episode production and content support provided by Tank Chen. Na’im Merchant is the co-founder and Executive Director of Carbon Removal Canada, a policy initiative focused on scaling carbon removal in Canada. He is on the advisory board of the Carbon Removal Standards Initiative and Terraset, and a former policy fellow with Elemental Impact. He previously ran carbon removal consulting practice Carbon Curve, and publishes The Carbon Curve newsletter and podcast. Every two weeks, Na’im will release a short interview with individuals advancing the policies, technologies, and collective action needed to scale up carbon removal around the world. Tank Chen is the Head of Content and Community at CDR.fyi, a public benefit corporation dedicated to accelerating carbon removal through transparency. He is also the co-founder of CDRjobs, a career platform for the carbon removal industry. Based in Taiwan, Tank is a carbon removal advocate focused on educating policymakers, corporate leaders, and the public on the importance of carbon removal, using data-driven insights to support communication and policy advocacy. If you enjoyed this episode, please subscribe to this podcast on your favorite podcast app or subscribe via The Carbon Curve newsletter here. If you’d like to get in touch with Na’im, you can reach out via LinkedIn. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit carboncurve.substack.com